The GR3D model, a tool to explore the Global Repositioning Dynamics of Diadromous fish Distribution

Tolerance of young allis shad Alosa alosa (Clupeidae) to oxy-thermic stress

The ecology of the young stages of allis shad Alosa alosa is poorly documented, although they can be exposed to many pressures during their freshwater phase and their downstream migration. When passing through systems such as the Gironde-Garonne-Dordogne watershed (GGD, SW France), they can be subjected to high temperatures and low levels of oxygen (hypoxia). The aim of this work is to assess the tolerance of young Alosa alosa at four ages (c. 10, 30, 60 and 85 days old) by challenging them to different temperatures (18, 22, 26 and 28°C) together with decreasing oxygen saturation levels (from 100% to 30%). Survival of the 10-day-old individuals was not influenced by oxy-thermic conditions, but high stress levels were detected and perhaps this age class was too fragile regarding the constraint of the experimental design. Survival at 30 and at 60 days old was negatively influenced by the highest temperatures tested alone (from 26°C and from 28°C, respectively) but no effect was detected at 85 days old up to 28°C. A combined effect of temperature and oxygen level was highlighted, with heat accelerating survival decrease when associated with oxygen level depletion: essentially, survival was critical (<50%) at 30 days old at temperature ≥22°C together with 30% O₂ ; at 60 days old, at temperature = 28°C with 30% O₂ ; at 85 days old, at temperature ≥26°C with ≤40% O₂ . Tolerance to oxy-thermic pressures appeared to be greater among the migratory ages (60 and 85 days old) than among the 30-day-old group. Based on environmental data recorded in the GGD system and on our experimental results, an exploratory analysis allowed a discussion of the possible impact of past oxy-thermic conditions on the local population dynamics between 2005 and 2018. The oxy-thermic conditions that may affect Alosa alosa at ages when they migrate downstream (60 and 85 days old) were not frequently recorded in this period, except in cases of extreme episodes of heat together with hypoxia that occurred in some years, in summertime in the turbidity maximum zone of the Gironde estuary (particularly in the year 2006). Interestingly, oxy-thermic conditions that are likely to threaten the 30-day-old individuals occurred more frequently in the lower freshwater parts of the GGD system between the years 2005 and 2018. In the context of climate change, a general increase in temperature is predicted, as well as more frequent and severe hypoxic events, therefore we suggest that local Alosa alosa population recruitment could encounter critical oxy-thermic conditions more frequently in the future if no adaptive management of water resources occurs.

Strong Effects of Temperature on the Early Life Stages of a Cold Stenothermal Fish Species, Brown Trout (Salmo trutta L.)

Temperature is the main abiotic factor that influences the life cycle of poikilotherms. The present study investigated the thermal tolerance and phenotypic plasticity of several parameters (development time, morphometric measures, bioenergetics) for both embryos and fry of a cold stenothermal fish species, brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) in order to allow for a holistic evaluation of the potential effects of temperature. Five temperatures (4°C, 6°C, 8°C, 10°C, and 12°C) were tested, and the effects of temperature were analyzed at three stages: hatching, emergence, and first food intake. A mean of 5,440 (S.E. ± 573) eggs, coming from seven females and seven males (seven families) captured close to Linkebeek (Belgium), were used for each temperature. Maximum survival of well-formed fry at first food intake and better use of energy budget were found at 6°C and 8°C, temperatures at which the possible contribution to the next generation should therefore be greatest. At 12°C, the experimental population fell dramatically (0.9% survival rate for well-formed fry at first food intake), and fry had almost no yolk sac at first food intake. The present results on survival at 12°C are in accordance with predictions of a sharp decrease in brown trout numbers in France over the coming decades according to climate change projections (1°C to 5°C temperature rise by 2100 for France). At 10°C, there was also a lower survival rate (55.4% at first food intake). At 4°C, the survival rate was high (76.4% at first food intake), but the deformity rate was much higher (22% at first food intake) than at 6°C, 8°C, and 10°C. The energetic budget showed that at the two extreme temperatures (4°C and 12°C) there was less energy left in the yolk sac at first food intake, suggesting a limited ability to survive starvation.

The Combined Use of Correlative and Mechanistic Species Distribution Models Benefits Low Conservation Status Species

Species can respond to climate change by tracking appropriate environmental conditions in space, resulting in a range shift. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) can help forecast such range shift responses. For few species, both correlative and mechanistic SDMs were built, but allis shad (Alosa alosa), an endangered anadromous fish species, is one of them. The main purpose of this study was to provide a framework for joint analyses of correlative and mechanistic SDMs projections in order to strengthen conservation measures for species of conservation concern. Guidelines for joint representation and subsequent interpretation of models outputs were defined and applied. The present joint analysis was based on the novel mechanistic model GR3D (Global Repositioning Dynamics of Diadromous fish Distribution) which was parameterized on allis shad and then used to predict its future distribution along the European Atlantic coast under different climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). We then used a correlative SDM for this species to forecast its distribution across the same geographic area and under the same climate change scenarios. First, projections from correlative and mechanistic models provided congruent trends in probability of habitat suitability and population dynamics. This agreement was preferentially interpreted as referring to the species vulnerability to climate change. Climate change could not be accordingly listed as a major threat for allis shad. The congruence in predicted range limits between SDMs projections was the next point of interest. The difference, when noticed, required to deepen our understanding of the niche modelled by each approach. In this respect, the relative position of the northern range limit between the two methods strongly suggested here that a key biological process related to intraspecific variability was potentially lacking in the mechanistic SDM. Based on our knowledge, we hypothesized that local adaptations to cold temperatures deserved more attention in terms of modelling, but further in conservation planning as well.