Ecological non-monotonicity and its effects on complexity and stability of populations, communities and ecosystems

Masting promotes transformation from predation to mutualism in an oak-weevil-rodent system

The significance of ecological non-monotonicity (a function whose first derivative changes signs) in shaping the structure and functions of the ecosystem has recently been recognized, but such studies involving high-order interactions are rare. Here, we have proposed a three-trophic conceptual diagram on interactions among trees, rodents, and insects in mast and non-mast years and tested the hypothesis that oak (Quercus wutaishanica) masting could result in increased mutualism and less predation in an oak-weevil-rodent system in a warm temperate forest of China. Our 14-year dataset revealed that mast years coincided with a relatively low rodent abundance but a high weevil abundance. Masting not only benefited seedling recruitment of oaks through increased dispersal by rodents but also a decrease in predation by rodents and weevils, as well as an increase in the overwintering survival of rodents. Masting appeared to have increased weevil survival by reducing predation of infested acorns by rodents. These results suggest that masting benefits all participants in the plant-insect-rodent system by increasing mutualism and reducing predation behavior (i.e., a non-monotonic function). Our study highlights the significance of masting in maintaining the diversity and function of the forest ecosystem by facilitating the transformation from predation to mutualism among trophic species.

On the History of Ecosystem Dynamical Modeling: The Rise and Promises of Qualitative Models

Ecosystem modeling is a complex and multidisciplinary modeling problem which emerged in the 1950s. It takes advantage of the computational turn in sciences to better understand anthropogenic impacts and improve ecosystem management. For that purpose, ecosystem simulation models based on difference or differential equations were built. These models were relevant for studying dynamical phenomena and still are. However, they face important limitations in data-poor situations. As a response, several formal and non-formal qualitative dynamical modeling approaches were independently developed to overcome some limitations of the existing methods. Qualitative approaches allow studying qualitative dynamics as relevant abstractions of those provided by quantitative models (e.g., response to press perturbations). Each modeling framework can be viewed as a different assemblage of properties (e.g., determinism, stochasticity or synchronous update of variable values) designed to satisfy some scientific objectives. Based on four stated objectives commonly found in complex environmental sciences ((1) grasping qualitative dynamics, (2) making as few assumptions as possible about parameter values, (3) being explanatory and (4) being predictive), our objectives were guided by the wish to model complex and multidisciplinary issues commonly found in ecosystem modeling. We then discussed the relevance of existing modeling approaches and proposed the ecological discrete-event networks (EDEN) modeling framework for this purpose. The EDEN models propose a qualitative, discrete-event, partially synchronous and possibilistic view of ecosystem dynamics. We discussed each of these properties through ecological examples and existing analysis techniques for such models and showed how relevant they are for environmental science studies.

Exploring the Frequency and Distribution of Ecological Non-monotonicity in Associations among Ecosystem Constituents

Complex links between biotic and abiotic constituents are fundamental for the functioning of ecosystems. Although non-monotonic interactions and associations are known to increase the stability, diversity, and productivity of ecosystems, they are frequently ignored by community-level standard statistical approaches. Using the copula-based dependence measure qad, capable of quantifying the directed and asymmetric dependence between variables for all forms of (functional) relationships, we determined the proportion of non-monotonic associations between different constituents of an ecosystem (plants, bacteria, fungi, and environmental parameters). Here, we show that up to 59% of all statistically significant associations are non-monotonic. Further, we show that pairwise associations between plants, bacteria, fungi, and environmental parameters are specifically characterized by their strength and degree of monotonicity, for example, microbe-microbe associations are on average stronger than and differ in degree of non-monotonicity from plant-microbe associations. Considering directed and non-monotonic associations, we extended the concept of ecosystem coupling providing more complete insights into the internal order of ecosystems. Our results emphasize the importance of ecological non-monotonicity in characterizing and understanding ecosystem patterns and processes.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10021-023-00867-9.

Effects of Group Size on Behavior, Reproduction, and mRNA Expression in Brains of Brandt's Voles

For social animals, a moderate group size is greatly important to maintain their reproductive success. However, the underlying neurobiological mechanism of group size on behavior and reproduction has rarely been investigated. In this study, we examined the effects of group size (1, 2, 4 pairs of adult male and female voles raised per cage) on behavior and reproduction. Meanwhile, the mRNA expression of stress and reproduction response-related genes in male brains was detected. We found that Brandt's voles (Lasiopodomys brandtii) in the large-sized group fight more severely than those in the small-sized group. Meanwhile, male voles were more anxious than females. The average number of embryos and litters per female in the medium-sized group was significantly higher than that of large-sized group. In male voles, stress- or reproduction-response mRNA expressions were more related to final group size or final density due to death caused by fighting. Our results indicated that a moderate group size was beneficial to the reproductive output of Brandt's voles. Our study highlights the combined effects of stress- or reproduction-related gene expression or behavior in regulating the fitness of voles with different group sizes.

High seed diversity and availability increase rodent community stability under human disturbance and climate variation

The relationship between diversity and stability is a focus in community ecology, but the relevant hypotheses have not been rigorously tested at trophic and network levels due to a lack of long-term data of species interactions. Here, by using seed tagging and infrared camera tracking methods, we qualified the seed-rodent interactions, and analyzed the associations of rodent community stability with species diversity, species abundance, and seed-rodent network complexity of 15 patches in a subtropical forest from 2013 to 2021. A total of 47,400 seeds were released, 1,467 rodents were marked, and 110 seed-rodent networks were reconstructed to estimate species richness, species abundance, and seed-rodent network metrics. We found, from younger to older stands, species richness and abundance (biomass) of seeds increased, while those of rodents decreased, leading to a seed-rodent network with higher nestedness, linkage density, and generality in older stands, but higher connectance in younger stands. With the increase of temperature and precipitation, seed abundance (biomass), rodent abundance, and the growth rate of rodent abundance increased significantly. We found rodent community stability (i.e., the inverse of rodent abundance variability) was significantly and positively associated with seed diversity, seed availability, linkage density and generality of seed-rodent networks, providing evidence of supporting the Bottom-Up Diversity-Stability Hypotheses and the Abundant Food Diversity-Stability Hypothesis. Our findings highlight the significant role of resource diversity and availability in promoting consumers' community stability at trophic and network levels, and the necessity of protecting biodiversity for increasing ecosystem stability under human disturbance and climate variation.

Spatial correlation reverses the compound effect of multiple stressors on rocky shore biofilm

Understanding how multifactorial fluctuating environments affect species and communities remains one of the major challenges in ecology. The spatial configuration of the environment is known to generate complex patterns of correlation among multiple stressors. However, to what extent the spatial correlation between simultaneously fluctuating variables affects ecological assemblages in real‐world conditions remains poorly understood. Here, we use field experiments and simulations to assess the influence of spatial correlation of two relevant climate variables – warming and sediment deposition following heavy precipitation – on the biomass and photosynthetic activity of rocky intertidal biofilm. First, we used a response‐surface design experiment to establish the relation between biofilm, warming, and sediment deposition in the field. Second, we used the response surface to generate predictions of biofilm performance under different scenarios of warming and sediment correlation. Finally, we tested the predicted outcomes by manipulating the degree of correlation between the two climate variables in a second field experiment. Simulations stemming from the experimentally derived response surface showed how the degree and direction (positive or negative) of spatial correlation between warming and sediment deposition ultimately determined the nonlinear response of biofilm biomass (but not photosynthetic activity) to fluctuating levels of the two climate variables. Experimental results corroborated these predictions, probing the buffering effect of negative spatial correlation against extreme levels of warming and sediment deposition. Together, these results indicate that consideration of nonlinear response functions and local‐scale patterns of correlation between climate drivers can improve our understanding and ability to predict ecological responses to multiple processes in heterogeneous environments.

Broad-scale climate variation drives the dynamics of animal populations: a global multi-taxa analysis

Climate is a major extrinsic factor affecting the population dynamics of many organisms. The Broad-Scale Climate Hypothesis (BSCH) was proposed by Elton to explain the large-scale synchronous population cycles of animals, but the extent of support and whether it differs among taxa and geographical regions is unclear. We reviewed publications examining the relationship between the population dynamics of multiple taxa worldwide and the two most commonly used broad-scale climate indices, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Our review and synthesis (based on 561 species from 221 papers) reveals that population changes of mammals, birds and insects are strongly affected by major oceanic shifts or irregular oceanic changes, particularly in ENSO- and NAO-influenced regions (Pacific and Atlantic, respectively), providing clear evidence supporting Elton's BSCH. Mammal and insect populations tended to increase during positive ENSO phases. Bird populations tended to increase in positive NAO phases. Some species showed dual associations with both positive and negative phases of the same climate index (ENSO or NAO). These findings indicate that some taxa or regions are more or less vulnerable to climate fluctuations and that some geographical areas show multiple weather effects related to ENSO or NAO phases. Beyond confirming that animal populations are influenced by broad-scale climate variation, we document extensive patterns of variation among taxa and observe that the direct biotic and abiotic mechanisms for these broad-scale climate factors affecting animal populations are very poorly understood. A practical implication of our research is that changes in ENSO or NAO can be used as early signals for pest management and wildlife conservation. We advocate integrative studies at both broad and local scales to unravel the omnipresent effects of climate on animal populations to help address the challenge of conserving biodiversity in this era of accelerated climate change.

Effects of phenological mismatch under warming are modified by community context

Climate change is altering the relative timing of species interactions by shifting when species first appear in communities and modifying the duration organisms spend in each developmental stage. However, community contexts, such as intraspecific competition and alternative resource species, can prolong shortened windows of availability and may mitigate the effects of phenological shifts on species interactions. Using a combination of laboratory experiments and dynamic simulations, we quantified how the effects of phenological shifts in Drosophila-parasitoid interactions differed with concurrent changes in temperature, intraspecific competition, and the presence of alternative host species. Our study confirmed that warming shortens the window of host susceptibility. However, the presence of alternative host species sustained interaction persistence across a broader range of phenological shifts than pairwise interactions by increasing the degree of temporal overlap with suitable development stages between hosts and parasitoids. Irrespective of phenological shifts, parasitism rates declined under warming due to reduced parasitoid performance, which limited the ability of community context to manage temporally mismatched interactions. These results demonstrate that the ongoing decline in insect diversity may exacerbate the effects of phenological shifts in ecological communities under future global warming temperatures.

A rodent herbivore reduces its predation risk through ecosystem engineering

Predator-prey interactions are ubiquitous and powerful forces that structure ecological communities.^1-3 Habitat complexity has been shown to be particularly important in regulating the strength of predator-prey interactions.^4-6 While it is well established that changes in habitat structure can alter the efficacy of predatory and anti-predatory behaviors,^7-9 little is known about the consequences of engineering activity by prey species who modify the external environment to reduce their own predation risk. Using field surveys and manipulative experiments, we evaluated how habitat modification by Brandt's voles (Lasiopodomys brandtii) influences predation risk from a principal avian predator (shrike; Lanius spp.) in a steppe grassland, located in Inner Mongolia, China. We found that voles actively modify habitat structure by cutting down a large, unpalatable bunchgrass species (Achnatherum splendens) in the presence of shrikes, a behavior that disappeared when these avian predators were excluded experimentally. The damage activities of these voless dramatically decreased the volume of unpalatable grasses, which in turn reduced visitations by shrikes and thus mortality rates. Our study shows that herbivorous prey that act as ecosystem engineers can directly reduce their own predation risk by modifying habitat structure. Given the ubiquity of predation risks faced by consumers, and the likely ability of many consumers to alter the habitat structure in which they live, the interplay between predation risk and ecosystem engineering may be an important but unappreciated mechanism at play in natural communities.

Multiple thresholds and trajectories of microbial biodiversity predicted across browning gradients by neural networks and decision tree learning

Ecological association studies often assume monotonicity such as between biodiversity and environmental properties although there is growing evidence that nonmonotonic relations dominate in nature. Here, we apply machine-learning algorithms to reveal the nonmonotonic association between microbial diversity and an anthropogenic-induced large-scale change, the browning of freshwaters, along a longitudinal gradient covering 70 boreal lakes in Scandinavia. Measures of bacterial richness and evenness (alpha-diversity) showed nonmonotonic trends in relation to environmental gradients, peaking at intermediate levels of browning. Depending on the statistical methods, variables indicative for browning could explain 5% of the variance in bacterial community composition (beta-diversity) when applying standard methods assuming monotonic relations and up to 45% with machine-learning methods taking non-monotonicity into account. This non-monotonicity observed at the community level was explained by the complex interchangeable nature of individual taxa responses as shown by a high degree of nonmonotonic responses of individual bacterial sequence variants to browning. Furthermore, the nonmonotonic models provide the position of thresholds and predict alternative bacterial diversity trajectories in boreal freshwater as a result of ongoing climate and land-use changes, which in turn will affect entire ecosystem metabolism and likely greenhouse gas production.

Mutualism between antagonists: its ecological and evolutionary implications

Mutualism or antagonism between species is often investigated within the framework of monotonic interactions of either mutualism or antagonism, but studies on transition from mutualism to antagonism (within the context of nonmonotonic interactions) have been largely ignored. In this paper, through a brief review and synthesis, we highlighted the role of mutualism between antagonists in regulating the ecological and evolutionary processes, as well as maintaining the stability and complexity of ecosystems. Mutualism between antagonistic species represents the density-dependent transition between mutualism and antagonism, which is beneficial to species coexistence and stability of complex ecosystems; thus, it should be favored by natural selection. Species may face selection of conflicting pressure on functional traits in co-balancing mutualism and antagonism, which may result in evolution of the dual character of species with moderate mutualistic or antagonistic traits. Coevolution and co-balance of these traits are driving forces in shaping mutualism-antagonism systems. Rewards for mutualists, punishment for exploiters, and competition of meta-communities are essential in stabilizing mutualism between antagonists. We appeal for more studies on mutualism between antagonists and its ecological and evolutionary implications by expanding the conventional ecological studies from monotonic to nonmonotonic regimes.

Rodent abundance triggered switch between the relative mutualism and predation in a rodent-seed system of the subtropical island forest

Density-dependent non-monotonic species interactions are important in maintaining ecosystem stability and function, but empirical evidences are still rare. Rodents, as both seed dispersers and seed predators, have dual effects on plant regeneration and may result in non-monotonic rodent-plant interactions. According to the non-monotonic models, the relative positive or negative effects of rodents on seedling establishment can be measured based on the positive or negative association of seedling recruitment rate and rodent abundance. In this study, we investigated the fates of acorns of Quercus serrata by tracking tagged seeds on 21 fragmented subtropical islands in the Thousand Island Lake, China. We found that the proportion of germinated seeds of all released seeds showed a dome-shaped association with rodent abundance per seed. The proportion of removed seeds and cached seeds showed a saturated- and a weak dome-shaped association with rodent abundance per seed, respectively. Our results demonstrated a clear empirical evidence that rodent abundance per seed triggered a switch between the relative mutualism and predation in a rodent-seed system. Our study implied that the observed non-monotonic interactions between plants and animals may play a significant role in maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem function. We appeal for more investigations of the complex non-monotonic interactions in various ecosystems.

Insights from the study of complex systems for the ecology and evolution of animal populations

Populations of animals comprise many individuals, interacting in multiple contexts, and displaying heterogeneous behaviors. The interactions among individuals can often create population dynamics that are fundamentally deterministic yet display unpredictable dynamics. Animal populations can, therefore, be thought of as complex systems. Complex systems display properties such as nonlinearity and uncertainty and show emergent properties that cannot be explained by a simple sum of the interacting components. Any system where entities compete, cooperate, or interfere with one another may possess such qualities, making animal populations similar on many levels to complex systems. Some fields are already embracing elements of complexity to help understand the dynamics of animal populations, but a wider application of complexity science in ecology and evolution has not occurred. We review here how approaches from complexity science could be applied to the study of the interactions and behavior of individuals within animal populations and highlight how this way of thinking can enhance our understanding of population dynamics in animals. We focus on 8 key characteristics of complex systems: hierarchy, heterogeneity, self-organization, openness, adaptation, memory, nonlinearity, and uncertainty. For each topic we discuss how concepts from complexity theory are applicable in animal populations and emphasize the unique insights they provide. We finish by outlining outstanding questions or predictions to be evaluated using behavioral and ecological data. Our goal throughout this article is to familiarize animal ecologists with the basics of each of these concepts and highlight the new perspectives that they could bring to variety of subfields.

Plant coexistence mediated by adaptive foraging preferences of exploiters or mutualists

Coexistence of plants depends on their competition for common resources and indirect interactions mediated by shared exploiters or mutualists. These interactions are driven either by changes in animal abundance (density-mediated interactions, e.g., apparent competition), or by changes in animal preferences for plants (behaviorally-mediated interactions). This article studies effects of behaviorally-mediated interactions on two plant population dynamics and animal preference dynamics when animal densities are fixed. Animals can be either adaptive exploiters or adaptive mutualists (e.g., herbivores or pollinators) that maximize their fitness. Analysis of the model shows that adaptive animal preferences for plants can lead to multiple outcomes of plant coexistence with different levels of specialization or generalism for the mediator animal species. In particular, exploiter generalism promotes plant coexistence even when inter-specific competition is too strong to make plant coexistence possible without exploiters, and mutualist specialization promotes plant coexistence at alternative stable states when plant inter-specific competition is weak. Introducing a new concept of generalized isoclines allows us to fully analyze the model with respect to the strength of competitive interactions between plants (weak or strong), and the type of interaction between plants and animals (exploitation or mutualism).

Scale-dependent climatic drivers of human epidemics in ancient China

A wide range of climate change-induced effects have been implicated in the prevalence of infectious diseases. Disentangling causes and consequences, however, remains particularly challenging at historical time scales, for which the quality and quantity of most of the available natural proxy archives and written documentary sources often decline. Here, we reconstruct the spatiotemporal occurrence patterns of human epidemics for large parts of China and most of the last two millennia. Cold and dry climate conditions indirectly increased the prevalence of epidemics through the influences of locusts and famines. Our results further reveal that low-frequency, long-term temperature trends mainly contributed to negative associations with epidemics, while positive associations of epidemics with droughts, floods, locusts, and famines mainly coincided with both higher and lower frequency temperature variations. Nevertheless, unstable relationships between human epidemics and temperature changes were observed on relatively smaller time scales. Our study suggests that an intertwined, direct, and indirect array of biological, ecological, and societal responses to different aspects of past climatic changes strongly depended on the frequency domain and study period chosen.

Precipitation alters interactions in a grassland ecological community

Climate change is transforming precipitation regimes world-wide. Changes in precipitation regimes are known to have powerful effects on plant productivity, but the consequences of these shifts for the dynamics of ecological communities are poorly understood. This knowledge gap hinders our ability to anticipate and mitigate the impacts of climate change on biodiversity. Precipitation may affect fauna through direct effects on physiology, behaviour or demography, through plant-mediated indirect effects, or by modifying interactions among species. In this paper, we examined the response of a semi-arid ecological community to a fivefold change in precipitation over 7 years. We examined the effects of precipitation on the dynamics of a grassland ecosystem in central California from 2007 to 2013. We conducted vegetation surveys, pitfall trapping of invertebrates, visual surveys of lizards and capture-mark-recapture surveys of rodents on 30 plots each year. We used structural equation modelling to evaluate the direct, indirect and modifying effects of precipitation on plants, ants, beetles, orthopterans, kangaroo rats, ground squirrels and lizards. We found pervasive effects of precipitation on the ecological community. Although precipitation increased plant biomass, direct effects on fauna were often stronger than plant-mediated effects. In addition, precipitation altered the sign or strength of consumer-resource and facilitative interactions among the faunal community such that negative or neutral interactions became positive or vice versa with increasing precipitation. These findings indicate that precipitation influences ecological communities in multiple ways beyond its recognized effects on primary productivity. Stochastic variation in precipitation may weaken the average strength of biotic interactions over time, thereby increasing ecosystem stability and resilience to climate change.