Evaluating the role of landscape in the spread of invasive species: The case of the biomass crop Miscanthus×giganteus

Trait plasticity alters the range of possible coexistence conditions in a competition-colonisation trade-off

Most of the classical theory on species coexistence has been based on species-level competitive trade-offs. However, it is becoming apparent that plant species display high levels of trait plasticity. The implications of this plasticity are almost completely unknown for most coexistence theory. Here, we model a competition-colonisation trade-off and incorporate trait plasticity to evaluate its effects on coexistence. Our simulations show that the classic competition-colonisation trade-off is highly sensitive to environmental circumstances, and coexistence only occurs in narrow ranges of conditions. The inclusion of plasticity, which allows shifts in competitive hierarchies across the landscape, leads to coexistence across a much broader range of competitive and environmental conditions including disturbance levels, the magnitude of competitive differences between species, and landscape spatial patterning. Plasticity also increases the number of species that persist in simulations of multispecies assemblages. Plasticity may generally increase the robustness of coexistence mechanisms and be an important component of scaling coexistence theory to higher diversity communities.

Invasion complexity at large spatial scales is an emergent property of interactions among landscape characteristics and invader traits

Invasion potential should be part of the evaluation of candidate species for any species introduction. However, estimating invasion risks remains a challenging problem, particularly in complex landscapes. Certain plant traits are generally considered to increase invasive potential and there is an understanding that landscapes influence invasions dynamics, but little research has been done to explore how those drivers of invasions interact. We evaluate the relative roles of, and potential interactions between, plant invasiveness traits and landscape characteristics on invasions with a case study using a model parameterized for the potentially invasive biomass crop, Miscanthus × giganteus. Using that model we simulate invasions on 1000 real landscapes to evaluate how landscape characteristics, including both composition and spatial structure, affect invasion outcomes. We conducted replicate simulations with differing strengths of plant invasiveness traits (dispersal ability, establishment ability, population growth rate, and the ability to utilize dispersal corridors) to evaluate how the importance of landscape characteristics for predicting invasion patterns changes depending on the invader details. Analysis of simulations showed that the presence of highly suitable habitat (e.g., grasslands) is generally the strongest determinant of invasion dynamics but that there are also more subtle interactions between landscapes and invader traits. These effects can also vary between different aspects of invasion dynamics (short vs. long time scales and population size vs. spatial extent). These results illustrate that invasions are complex emergent processes with multiple drivers and effective management needs to reflect the ecology of the species of interest and the particular goals or risks for which efforts need to be optimized.

Predictable invasion dynamics in North American populations of the Eurasian collared dove Streptopelia decaocto

Species invasions represent a significant dimension of global change yet the dynamics of invasions remain poorly understood and are considered rather unpredictable. We explored interannual dynamics of the invasion process in the Eurasian collared dove (Streptopelia decaocto) and tested whether the advance of the invasion front of the species in North America relates to centrality (versus peripherality) within its estimated fundamental ecological niche. We used ecological niche modelling approaches to estimate the dimensions of the fundamental ecological niche on the Old World distribution of the species, and then transferred that model to the New World as measures of centrality versus peripherality within the niche for the species. Although our hypothesis was that the invasion front would advance faster over more favourable (i.e. more central) conditions, the reverse was the case: the invasion expanded faster in areas presenting less favourable (i.e. more peripheral) conditions for the species as it advanced across North America. This result offers a first view of a predictive approach to the dynamics of species' invasions, and thereby has relevant implications for the management of invasive species, as such a predictive understanding would allow better anticipation of coming steps and advances in the progress of invasions, important to designing and guiding effective remediation and mitigation efforts.

Lack of Impacts during Early Establishment Highlights a Short-Term Management Window for Minimizing Invasions from Perennial Biomass Crops

Managing intentional species introductions requires evaluating potential ecological risks. However, it is difficult to weigh costs and benefits when data about interactions between novel species and the communities they are introduced to are scarce. In anticipation of expanded cultivation of perennial biomass crops, we experimentally introduced Miscanthus sinensis and Miscanthus × giganteus (two non-native candidate biomass crops) into two different non-crop habitats (old field and flood-plain forest) to evaluate their establishment success and impact on ambient local communities. We followed these controlled introductions and the composition dynamics of the receiving communities over a 5-year period. Habitats differed widely in adult Miscanthus survival and reproduction potential between species, although seed persistence and seedling emergence were similar in the two biomass crops in both habitats. Few introductions survived in the floodplain forest habitat, and this mortality precluded analyses of their potential impacts there. In old field habitats, proportional survival ranged from 0.3 to 0.4, and plant survival and growth increased with age. However, there was no evidence of biomass crop species effects on community richness or evenness or strong impacts on the resident old field constituents across 5 years. These results suggest that Miscanthus species could establish outside of cultivated fields, but there will likely be a lag in any impacts on the receiving communities. Local North American invasions by M. sinensis and M. sacchariflorus display the potential for Miscanthus species to develop aggressively expanding populations. However, the weak short-term community-level impacts demonstrated in the current study indicate a clear management window in which eradicating species footholds is easily achieved, if they can be detected early enough. Diligent long-term monitoring, detection, and eradication plans are needed to successfully minimize harmful invasions from these biomass crops.

Lack of Impacts during Early Establishment Highlights a Short-Term Management Window for Minimizing Invasions from Perennial Biomass Crops

Managing intentional species introductions requires evaluating potential ecological risks. However, it is difficult to weigh costs and benefits when data about interactions between novel species and the communities they are introduced to are scarce. In anticipation of expanded cultivation of perennial biomass crops, we experimentally introduced Miscanthus sinensis and Miscanthus × giganteus (two non-native candidate biomass crops) into two different non-crop habitats (old field and flood-plain forest) to evaluate their establishment success and impact on ambient local communities. We followed these controlled introductions and the composition dynamics of the receiving communities over a 5-year period. Habitats differed widely in adult Miscanthus survival and reproduction potential between species, although seed persistence and seedling emergence were similar in the two biomass crops in both habitats. Few introductions survived in the floodplain forest habitat, and this mortality precluded analyses of their potential impacts there. In old field habitats, proportional survival ranged from 0.3 to 0.4, and plant survival and growth increased with age. However, there was no evidence of biomass crop species effects on community richness or evenness or strong impacts on the resident old field constituents across 5 years. These results suggest that Miscanthus species could establish outside of cultivated fields, but there will likely be a lag in any impacts on the receiving communities. Local North American invasions by M. sinensis and M. sacchariflorus display the potential for Miscanthus species to develop aggressively expanding populations. However, the weak short-term community-level impacts demonstrated in the current study indicate a clear management window in which eradicating species footholds is easily achieved, if they can be detected early enough. Diligent long-term monitoring, detection, and eradication plans are needed to successfully minimize harmful invasions from these biomass crops.

Challenges and priorities for modelling livestock health and pathogens in the context of climate change

Climate change has the potential to impair livestock health, with consequences for animal welfare, productivity, greenhouse gas emissions, and human livelihoods and health. Modelling has an important role in assessing the impacts of climate change on livestock systems and the efficacy of potential adaptation strategies, to support decision making for more efficient, resilient and sustainable production. However, a coherent set of challenges and research priorities for modelling livestock health and pathogens under climate change has not previously been available. To identify such challenges and priorities, researchers from across Europe were engaged in a horizon-scanning study, involving workshop and questionnaire based exercises and focussed literature reviews. Eighteen key challenges were identified and grouped into six categories based on subject-specific and capacity building requirements. Across a number of challenges, the need for inventories relating model types to different applications (e.g. the pathogen species, region, scale of focus and purpose to which they can be applied) was identified, in order to identify gaps in capability in relation to the impacts of climate change on animal health. The need for collaboration and learning across disciplines was highlighted in several challenges, e.g. to better understand and model complex ecological interactions between pathogens, vectors, wildlife hosts and livestock in the context of climate change. Collaboration between socio-economic and biophysical disciplines was seen as important for better engagement with stakeholders and for improved modelling of the costs and benefits of poor livestock health. The need for more comprehensive validation of empirical relationships, for harmonising terminology and measurements, and for building capacity for under-researched nations, systems and health problems indicated the importance of joined up approaches across nations. The challenges and priorities identified can help focus the development of modelling capacity and future research structures in this vital field. Well-funded networks capable of managing the long-term development of shared resources are required in order to create a cohesive modelling community equipped to tackle the complex challenges of climate change.