Simulation of zebra mussels (Dreissena polymorpha) invasion and evaluation of impacts on Mille Lacs Lake, Minnesota: An ecosystem model

Exploring multiple stressor effects with Ecopath, Ecosim, and Ecospace: Research designs, modeling techniques, and future directions

Understanding the cumulative effects of multiple stressors is a research priority in environmental science. Ecological models are a key component of tackling this challenge because they can simulate interactions between the components of an ecosystem. Here, we ask, how has the popular modeling platform Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) been used to model human impacts related to climate change, land and sea use, pollution, and invasive species? We conducted a literature review encompassing 166 studies covering stressors other than fishing mostly in aquatic ecosystems. The most modeled stressors were physical climate change (60 studies), species introductions (22), habitat loss (21), and eutrophication (20), using a range of modeling techniques. Despite this comprehensive coverage, we identified four gaps that must be filled to harness the potential of EwE for studying multiple stressor effects. First, only 12% of studies investigated three or more stressors, with most studies focusing on single stressors. Furthermore, many studies modeled only one of many pathways through which each stressor is known to affect ecosystems. Second, various methods have been applied to define environmental response functions representing the effects of single stressors on species groups. These functions can have a large effect on the simulated ecological changes, but best practices for deriving them are yet to emerge. Third, human dimensions of environmental change - except for fisheries - were rarely considered. Fourth, only 3% of studies used statistical research designs that allow attribution of simulated ecosystem changes to stressors' direct effects and interactions, such as factorial (computational) experiments. None made full use of the statistical possibilities that arise when simulations can be repeated many times with controlled changes to the inputs. We argue that all four gaps are feasibly filled by integrating ecological modeling with advances in other subfields of environmental science and in computational statistics.

Zebra Mussel Holobionts Fix and Recycle Nitrogen in Lagoon Sediments

Bivalves are ubiquitous filter-feeders able to alter ecosystems functions. Their impact on nitrogen (N) cycling is commonly related to their filter-feeding activity, biodeposition, and excretion. A so far understudied impact is linked to the metabolism of the associated microbiome that together with the host constitute the mussel's holobiont. Here we investigated how colonies of the invasive zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha) alter benthic N cycling in the shallow water sediment of the largest European lagoon (the Curonian Lagoon). A set of incubations was conducted to quantify the holobiont's impact and to quantitatively compare it with the indirect influence of the mussel on sedimentary N transformations. Zebra mussels primarily enhanced the recycling of N to the water column by releasing mineralized algal biomass in the form of ammonium and by stimulating dissimilatory nitrate reduction to ammonium (DNRA). Notably, however, not only denitrification and DNRA, but also dinitrogen (N2) fixation was measured in association with the holobiont. The diazotrophic community of the holobiont diverged substantially from that of the water column, suggesting a unique niche for N2 fixation associated with the mussels. At the densities reported in the lagoon, mussel-associated N2 fixation may account for a substantial (and so far, overlooked) source of bioavailable N. Our findings contribute to improve our understanding on the ecosystem-level impact of zebra mussel, and potentially, of its ability to adapt to and colonize oligotrophic environments.

Ecosystem approach to fisheries: Exploring environmental and trophic effects on Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY) reference point estimates

We present a comprehensive analysis of estimation of fisheries Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY) reference points using an ecosystem model built for Mille Lacs Lake, the second largest lake within Minnesota, USA. Data from single-species modelling output, extensive annual sampling for species abundances, annual catch-survey, stomach-content analysis for predatory-prey interactions, and expert opinions were brought together within the framework of an Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) ecosystem model. An increase in the lake water temperature was observed in the last few decades; therefore, we also incorporated a temperature forcing function in the EwE model to capture the influences of changing temperature on the species composition and food web. The EwE model was fitted to abundance and catch time-series for the period 1985 to 2006. Using the ecosystem model, we estimated reference points for most of the fished species in the lake at single-species as well as ecosystem levels with and without considering the influence of temperature change; therefore, our analysis investigated the trophic and temperature effects on the reference points. The paper concludes that reference points such as MSY are not stationary, but change when (1) environmental conditions alter species productivity and (2) fishing on predators alters the compensatory response of their prey. Thus, it is necessary for the management to re-estimate or re-evaluate the reference points when changes in environmental conditions and/or major shifts in species abundance or community structure are observed.

Modelling the Risk Posed by the Zebra Mussel Dreissena polymorpha: Italy as a Case Study

We generated a risk map to forecast the potential effects of the spreading of zebra mussels Dreissena polymorpha across the Italian territory. We assessed the invader's potential impact on rivers, lakes, watersheds and dams at a fine-grained scale and detected those more at risk that should be targeted with appropriate monitoring. We developed a MaxEnt model and employed weighted overlay analyses to detect the species' potential distribution and generate risk maps for Italy. D. polymorpha has a greater probability of occurring at low to medium altitudes in areas characterised by fluviatile deposits of major streams. Northern and central Italy appear more at risk. Some hydroelectric power dams are at high risk, while most dams for irrigation, drinkable water reservoirs and other dam types are at medium to low risk. The lakes and rivers reaches (representing likely expansion pathways) at medium-high or high risk mostly occur in northern and central Italy. We highlight the importance of modelling potential invasions on a country scale to achieve the sufficient resolution needed to develop appropriate monitoring plans and prevent the invader's harmful effects. Further high-resolution risk maps are needed for other regions partly or not yet colonised by the zebra mussel.