Calibrating process-based marine ecosystem models: An example case using Atlantis

Changes in sea floor productivity are crucial to understanding the impact of climate change in temperate coastal ecosystems according to a new size-based model

The multifaceted effects of climate change on physical and biogeochemical processes are rapidly altering marine ecosystems but often are considered in isolation, leaving our understanding of interactions between these drivers of ecosystem change relatively poor. This is particularly true for shallow coastal ecosystems, which are fuelled by a combination of distinct pelagic and benthic energy pathways that may respond to climate change in fundamentally distinct ways. The fish production supported by these systems is likely to be impacted by climate change differently to those of offshore and shelf ecosystems, which have relatively simpler food webs and mostly lack benthic primary production sources. We developed a novel, multispecies size spectrum model for shallow coastal reefs, specifically designed to simulate potential interactive outcomes of changing benthic and pelagic energy inputs and temperatures and calculate the relative importance of these variables for the fish community. Our model, calibrated using field data from an extensive temperate reef monitoring program, predicts that changes in resource levels will have much stronger impacts on fish biomass and yields than changes driven by physiological responses to temperature. Under increased plankton abundance, species in all fish trophic groups were predicted to increase in biomass, average size, and yields. By contrast, changes in benthic resources produced variable responses across fish trophic groups. Increased benthic resources led to increasing benthivorous and piscivorous fish biomasses, yields, and mean body sizes, but biomass decreases among herbivore and planktivore species. When resource changes were combined with warming seas, physiological responses generally decreased species' biomass and yields. Our results suggest that understanding changes in benthic production and its implications for coastal fisheries should be a priority research area. Our modified size spectrum model provides a framework for further study of benthic and pelagic energy pathways that can be easily adapted to other ecosystems.

Functional response of an egg parasitoid, Trichogramma chilonis Ishii to sublethal imidacloprid exposure

BACKGROUND

The effectiveness of a biological control agent depends on how well it can control pests and how compatible it is with pesticides. Therefore, we reported the multigenerational effect of a commonly used insecticide, imidacloprid, on the functional response of a widely acclaimed egg parasitoid, Trichogramma chilonis Ishii, to different densities of the host Corcyra cephalonica Stainton eggs. The study investigated the outcomes of the median lethal concentration (LC50 ) and sublethal concentrations (LC5 , LC30 ), along with control treatments for five continuous generations (F1 to F5 ).

RESULTS

The results showed that the F5 generation of LC30 , both of the F1 and F5 generations of LC50 , and the control all had a Type II functional response. A Type I functional response was exhibited for the F1 generation of LC30 and both generations of LC5 . The attack rate on host eggs treated with LC5 and LC30 did not change (decrease) with the shift in the type of functional response as compared to the control. A significant increase in the searching efficiency (a) was observed in the later generation (F5 ) under the exposure of LC5 and LC30 imidacloprid concentrations. A lower handling time (Th ) in both generations of the LC5 followed by LC30 treated individuals was observed when compared with the control and LC50 treatments. The per capita parasitization efficiency (1/Th ) and the rate of parasitization per handling time (a/Th ) were also considerably higher in both the generations of LC5 and LC30 than in the control and LC50 , thereby implying positive effects of imidacloprid on the parasitization potential of T. chilonis.

CONCLUSION

Altogether, these multigenerational outcomes on the functional response of T. chilonis could be leveraged to control the intractable lepidopteran pests under the mild exposure of imidacloprid in integrated pest management (IPM) programs as well as in the mass rearing of the parasitoid, T. chilonis. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.

Body size and food-web interactions mediate species range shifts under warming

Species ranges are shifting in response to climate change, but most predictions disregard food-web interactions and, in particular, if and how such interactions change through time. Predator-prey interactions could speed up species range shifts through enemy release or create lags through biotic resistance. Here, we developed a spatially explicit model of interacting species, each with a thermal niche and embedded in a size-structured food-web across a temperature gradient that was then exposed to warming. We also created counterfactual single species models to contrast and highlight the effect of trophic interactions on range shifts. We found that dynamic trophic interactions hampered species range shifts across 450 simulated food-webs with up to 200 species each over 200 years of warming. All species experiencing dynamic trophic interactions shifted more slowly than single-species models would predict. In addition, the trailing edges of larger bodied species ranges shifted especially slowly because of ecological subsidies from small shifting prey. Trophic interactions also reduced the numbers of locally novel species, novel interactions and productive species, thus maintaining historical community compositions for longer. Current forecasts ignoring dynamic food-web interactions and allometry may overestimate species' tendency to track climate change.

Making spatial-temporal marine ecosystem modelling better - A perspective

Marine Ecosystem Models (MEMs) provide a deeper understanding of marine ecosystem dynamics. The United Nations Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development has highlighted the need to deploy these complex mechanistic spatial-temporal models to engage policy makers and society into dialogues towards sustainably managed oceans. From our shared perspective, MEMs remain underutilized because they still lack formal validation, calibration, and uncertainty quantifications that undermines their credibility and uptake in policy arenas. We explore why these shortcomings exist and how to enable the global modelling community to increase MEMs' usefulness. We identify a clear gap between proposed solutions to assess model skills, uncertainty, and confidence and their actual systematic deployment. We attribute this gap to an underlying factor that the ecosystem modelling literature largely ignores: technical issues. We conclude by proposing a conceptual solution that is cost-effective, scalable and simple, because complex spatial-temporal marine ecosystem modelling is already complicated enough.

From data compilation to model validation: comparing three ecosystem models of the Tasman and Golden Bays, New Zealand

The Tasman and Golden Bays (TBGB) are a semi-enclosed embayment system in New Zealand that supports numerous commercial and recreational activities. We present three ecosystem models of the TBGB ecosystem with varying levels of complexity, aimed at contributing as tools to aid in understanding this ecosystem and its responses to anthropogenic and natural pressures. We describe the process of data compilation through to model validation and analyse the importance of knowledge gaps with respect to model dynamics and results. We compare responses in all three models to historical fishing, and analyse similarities and differences in the dynamics of the three models. We assessed the most complex of the models against initialisation uncertainty and sensitivity to oceanographic variability and found it most sensitive to the latter. We recommend that scenarios relating to ecosystem dynamics of the TBGB ecosystem include sensitivities, especially oceanographic uncertainty, and compare responses across all three models where it is possible to do so.