Understanding the response of the Western Mediterranean cephalopods to environment and fishing in a context of alleged winners of change

Increasing impacts of both fisheries and climate change have resulted in shifts in the structure and functioning of marine communities. One recurrent observation is the rise of cephalopods as fish recede. This is generally attributed to the removal of main predators and competitors by fishing, while mechanistic evidence is still lacking. In addition, climate change may influence cephalopods due to their high environmental sensitivity. We aim to unveil the effects of different anthropogenic and environmental drivers at different scales focusing on the cephalopod community of the Western Mediterranean Sea. We investigate several ecological indicators offering a wide range of information about their ecology, and statistically relating them with environmental, biotic and fisheries drivers. Our results highlight non-linear changes of indicators along with spatial differences in their responses. Overall, the environment drivers have greater effects than biotic and local human impacts with contrasting effects of temperature across the geographic gradient. We conclude that cephalopods may be impacted by climate change in the future while not necessary through positive warming influence, which should make us cautious when referring to them as generalized winners of current changes.

Decadal changes in biomass and distribution of key fisheries species on Newfoundland's Grand Banks

Canadian fisheries management has embraced the precautionary approach and the incorporation of ecosystem information into decision-making processes. Accurate estimation of fish stock biomass is crucial for ensuring sustainable exploitation of marine resources. Spatio-temporal models can provide improved indices of biomass as they capture spatial and temporal correlations in data and can account for environmental factors influencing biomass distributions. In this study, we developed a spatio-temporal generalized additive model (st-GAM) to investigate the relationships between bottom temperature, depth, and the biomass of three key fished species on The Grand Banks: snow crab (Chionoecetes opilio), yellowtail flounder (Limanda ferruginea), and Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua). Our findings revealed changes in the centre of gravity of Atlantic cod that could be related to a northern shift of the species within the Grand Banks or to a faster recovery of the 2J3KL stock. Atlantic cod also displayed hyperaggregation behaviour with the species showing a continuous distribution over the Grand Banks when biomass is high. These findings suggest a joint stock assessment between the 2J3KL and 3NO stocks would be advisable. However, barriers may need to be addressed to achieve collaboration between the two distinct regulatory bodies (i.e., DFO and NAFO) in charge of managing the stocks. Snow crab and yellowtail flounder centres of gravity have remained relatively constant over time. We also estimated novel indices of biomass, informed by environmental factors. Our study represents a step towards ecosystem-based fisheries management for the highly dynamic Grand Banks.

Retrospective analysis of the pelagic ecosystem of the Western Mediterranean Sea: Drivers, changes and effects

In the Western Mediterranean Sea, forage fishes have changed in abundance, body condition, growth, reproduction, and distribution in the last decades. Different hypotheses have been proposed to explain these changes, including increase in fishing mortality; changes in environmental conditions affecting species fitness, and planktonic productivity and quality; recovery of top predators; and increase in competitors. We investigated the main drivers and changes of the pelagic ecosystem and their effects using an ecosystem-based modelling approach. Specifically, we (1) quantified the potential historical contribution of various drivers of change, (2) investigated changes in temporal trends and spatial distributions of main ecosystem components, and (3) identified ecological consequences of these changes in top predator and competitors, their fisheries and ecosystem traits during 2000-2020. We updated an established Ecopath food-web model representing the Spanish and French Mediterranean sub-areas (GSA06 and GSA07) in 2000 with recent available data. We applied the temporal dynamic Ecosim module, and tested historical time series of fishing effort, fishing mortality and environmental factors as potential drivers. Observed biomass and landings of key species were used to validate model projections. A spatial-temporal Ecospace model was developed to project species distribution changes. Results showed historical biomass and catch changes driven by a combination of high fishing pressure and environmental change (i.e. increase in temperature and salinity, and decline in primary productivity). Small pelagic fish showed significant temporal changes and predicted shifts in their distributions, following a latitudinal gradient. Predators and competitors showed changes as well, displaying heterogeneous spatial patterns, while fisheries landings declined. Overall, results matched observations (e.g., decline of sardine, fluctuations of anchovy and increases in bluefin tuna) and illustrated the need to complement traditional assessments with integrative frameworks to move towards an ecosystem-based approach in the Mediterranean. They also highlighted important knowledge gaps to guide future research in the region.

Modelling seabirds biodiversity through Bayesian Spatial Beta regression models: A proxy to inform marine protected areas in the Mediterranean Sea

Seabirds are bioindicators of marine ecosystems health and one of the world's most endangered avian groups. The creation of marine protected areas plays an important role in the conservation of marine environment and its biodiversity. The distributions of top predators, as seabirds, have been commonly used for the management and creation of these figures of protection. The main objective of this study is to investigate seabirds biodiversity distribution in the Mediterranean Sea through the use of Bayesian spatial Beta regression models. We used an extensive historical database of at-sea locations of 19 different seabird species as well as geophysical, climatology variables and cumulative anthropogenic threats to model species biodiversity. We found negative associations between seabirds biodiversity and distance to the coast as well as concavity of the seabed, and positive with chlorophyll and slope. Further, a positive association was found between seabirds biodiversity and coastal impact. In this study we define as hot spot of seabird biodiversity those areas with a posterior predictive mean over 0.50. We found potential hot spots in the Mediterranean Sea which do not overlap with the existing MPASs and marine IBAs. Specifically, our hot spots areas do not overlap with the 52.04% and 16.87% of the current MPAs and marine IBAs, respectively. Overall, our study highlights the need for the extension of spatial prioritization of conservation areas to seabirds biodiversity, addressing the challenges of establishing transboundary governance.

Differential effect of fisheries to the COVID-19 pandemic in the region of Andalusia (Spain)

Fishing is one of the most widespread and important human activities in coastal ecosystems and it plays a fundamental role in employment and the economy of coastal communities. However, in the period 2020-2021, the global outbreak of COVID-19 negatively affected fishing economic activity. Against this background, Andalusia (South of Spain) is an important region in which the resilience of different fishing exploitation systems can be studied, but within the same social and economic framework. Therefore, the main study aim was to investigate the resilience of fishing activity to the COVID-19 pandemic in two Andalusian fishing grounds (i.e. Atlantic and Mediterranean). We analysed daily landings and the first-sale prices of fresh fish of the most caught species in both fishing grounds, while taking into account the different seasonal behaviour of the fisheries. Generalised Linear Models were used to compare the data, which were obtained during periods in which the COVID-19 severity levels differed. These levels were implemented according to political measures. The final objective was to understand how the degree of industrialisation in the fleets can hinder or help maintain the economic activity of fisheries during major crises.

The trade-off between condition and growth shapes juveniles' survival of harvested demersal fish of the Mediterranean sea

Fish body condition and growth are two interrelated traits closely associated with species life history and fitness, whose trade-off can ultimately impact population dynamics albeit seldom empirically demonstrated. They can intricately affect survival rates, which are particularly relevant for species under exploitation. Using individual spatiotemporal information in Northwestern Mediterranean, we document for the first time the existence of a trade-off between condition and growth in regulating survival dynamics in two important fish species for the Mediterranean fisheries that are characterized by contrasting life histories. For the European hake (Merluccius merluccius), a benthopelagic species, juveniles' body condition was detected to be positively linked to survival and negatively associated with the growth of this age group. For the red mullet (Mullus barbatus), the same pattern was observed for young adults. We also show that the observed patterns on a regional level have a clear spatial dependence as we found that observed body condition over a local scale had a broad effect on the population dynamics of the whole region, with the Ebro delta area emerging as the demographic engine of the two species. We discuss our results in the context of fisheries management and underline the importance of improving current stock assessment models and spatially based fishery management towards incorporating body condition and growth due to their influence on important parameters such as survival.

Sardines at a junction: Seascape genomics reveals ecological and oceanographic drivers of variation in the NW Mediterranean Sea

By evaluating genetic variation across the entire genome, one can address existing questions in a novel way while raising new ones. The latter includes how different local environments influence adaptive and neutral genomic variation within and among populations, providing insights into local adaptation of natural populations and their responses to global change. Here, under a seascape genomic approach, ddRAD data of 4609 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from 398 sardines (Sardina pilchardus) collected in 11 Mediterranean and one Atlantic site were generated. These were used along with oceanographic and ecological information to detect signals of adaptive divergence with gene flow across environmental gradients. The studied sardines constitute two clusters (F_ST  = 0.07), a pattern attributed to outlier loci, highlighting putative local adaptation. The trend in the number of days with sea surface temperature above 19°C, a critical threshold for successful sardine spawning, was crucial at all levels of population structuring with implications on the species' key biological processes. Outliers link candidate SNPs to the region's environmental heterogeneity. Our findings provide evidence for a dynamic equilibrium in which population structure is maintained by physical and ecological factors under the opposing influences of migration and selection. This dynamic in a natural system warrants continuous monitoring under a seascape genomic approach that might benefit from a temporal and more detailed spatial dimension. Our results may contribute to complementary studies aimed at providing deeper insights into the mechanistic processes underlying population structuring. Those are key to understanding and predicting future changes and responses of this highly exploited species in the face of climate change.

A mesoscale analysis of relations between fish species richness and environmental and anthropogenic pressures in the Mediterranean Sea

Although there is a great knowledge about individual anthropogenic threats to different fish species in the Mediterranean Sea, little is known about how these threats accumulate and interact to affect fish species richness in conjunction with environmental dynamics. This study assesses the role of these threats in the fish richness component and identifies the main areas where the interaction between fish species richness and threats is highest. Our results show that fish richness seems to be higher in saltier and colder areas where the chlorophyll-a and phosphate concentrations are lower. Among the anthropogenic threats analyzed, the costal impact and the fishing effort seems to be the more relevant ones. Overall areas with high fish richness are mainly located along the western and northern shores, with lower values in the south-eastern regions. Areas of potential high cumulative threats are widespread in both the western and eastern basins, with fewer areas located in the south-eastern region. By describing the spatial patterns of the fish richness and which drivers explain these patterns we can also identify which anthropogenic activities can be managed more effectively to maintain and restore marine fish biodiversity in the basin.

Energy content of anchovy and sardine using surrogate calorimetry methods

European anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) and sardine (Sardina pilchardus) are crucial species for the marine ecosystem of the Northwestern Mediterranean Sea. They account for a high percentage of fish landings and they represent an important economic income for the fishery sector. Concerns over their stock status are rising in recent years as biomass, growth, reproductive capacity, and body condition of both species are declining, with latitudinal variations. Therefore, there is an urgent need for a body condition monitoring scheme. Energy storage variability has important implications for both fish recruitment and population structure. Direct condition indices, such as energy density (ED) with bomb calorimetry, are highly reliable for measuring the energy content, but time-consuming. Alternatively, fatmeter analysis and relative condition index (Kn) have been proposed as effective indirect methods. The aim of this study is to test the application of fatmeter as a surrogate of bomb calorimetry to infer the energy content of sardine and anchovy. To validate its use, fatmeter values were compared with both ED and Kn values. Individuals of both species were sampled monthly for a year in order to assess seasonal variations in energy content. Our results highlight that fatmeter measurements are strongly correlated with calorimetry ED for sardine, while a weaker but significant correlation was found for anchovy. The observed differences between the two species are related to their breeding strategies. Based on this study, Kn cannot be considered a good proxy of the energy density of sardine, in particular during the resting period. By contrast, fatmeter analysis appears to be a faster and suitable method to evaluate the energy content of both species routinely. In addition, we provide a linear model to infer ED from fatmeter values for both small pelagic fish. Eventually, these findings could be used to implement body condition monitoring protocols and boost continuous large-scale monitoring.

Making spatial-temporal marine ecosystem modelling better - A perspective

Marine Ecosystem Models (MEMs) provide a deeper understanding of marine ecosystem dynamics. The United Nations Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development has highlighted the need to deploy these complex mechanistic spatial-temporal models to engage policy makers and society into dialogues towards sustainably managed oceans. From our shared perspective, MEMs remain underutilized because they still lack formal validation, calibration, and uncertainty quantifications that undermines their credibility and uptake in policy arenas. We explore why these shortcomings exist and how to enable the global modelling community to increase MEMs' usefulness. We identify a clear gap between proposed solutions to assess model skills, uncertainty, and confidence and their actual systematic deployment. We attribute this gap to an underlying factor that the ecosystem modelling literature largely ignores: technical issues. We conclude by proposing a conceptual solution that is cost-effective, scalable and simple, because complex spatial-temporal marine ecosystem modelling is already complicated enough.

Trophic niche overlap between round sardinella (Sardinella aurita) and sympatric pelagic fish species in the Western Mediterranean

The northward expansion of round sardinella (Sardinella aurita) in the Mediterranean Sea, together with declines and fluctuations in biomass and landings of European sardine (Sardina pilchardus) and anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) observed in recent decades, may suggest potential inter-specific competition in the pelagic domain. The coexistence of sympatric zooplanktivorous fish species might therefore be exposed in part to trophic niche overlap and competition for food. Combining visual diet characterization under the microscope with DNA metabarcoding from stomach contents of fish collected in spring results show that predation on relatively large krill is equally important for sardinella than for the other two niche overlapping species. Furthermore, an important overlap is found in their isotopic niche, especially with anchovy, using nitrogen (δ15N) and carbon (δ13C) stable isotopes in muscle tissue. In fact, the three fish species are able to feed effectively in the whole prey size spectrum available during the sampled season, from the smallest diatoms and copepods to the larger prey (i.e., decapods and euphausiids), including fish larvae. Moreover, effective predation upon other large prey like siphonophores, which is observed only when multi-proxy analyses in stomach contents are applied, might also be relevant in the diet of sardinella. The overlapping diet composition in spring, together with the effective use of food resource by sardinella, can be of special interest in potential future scenarios with warmer water temperature leading to lower zooplankton and/or higher jellyfish availability, where sardinella may take advantage over other species due to its feeding plasticity.

Equity in science: advocating for a triple-blind review system

We propose 'triple-blind review' for peer-reviewed journals - a process that keeps author identities and affiliations blind to manuscript editors until after first appraisal. Blinded appraisal will help to reduce the biases that negatively affect under-represented and minority scientists, ultimately better supporting equity in scientific publishing.

Modelling the spatial distribution of Sardina pilchardus and Engraulis encrasicolus spawning habitat in the NW Mediterranean Sea

We investigated the main drivers of eggs and larvae distributions of European sardine and anchovy from the NW Mediterranean Sea. We used Generalized Additive Models and satellite environmental data. Mainly sea surface temperature, but also currents, surface height, and primary production were significantly correlated with both species' early stages distributions. Anchovy optimal temperature upper limit was not detected, but sardine eggs and larvae presented a small-ranged bell-shape curve relationship to SST with an upper SST threshold around 13 °C. Sardine spawning during winter appeared to be dependant not only on in-situ environmental conditions but also on summer conditions prior to the spawning event. Model predictions of the larval and spawning habitat distribution showed clear differences between developmental stages and between species, confirming a worsening of the sardine habitat with time. Considering the further increase of surface temperature predicted in the years to come, the survival of the sardine in the region could be compromised.

Predicting potential compliance of small-scale fishers in Brazil: The need to increase trust to achieve fisheries management goals

Many global management and conservation initiatives fail to prevent overfishing either because they do not plan for local engagement, surveillance, and enforcement, and/or because they fail to include alternatives for short-term losses. Thus, these initiatives do not gain support among fishers. In this study, we interviewed fishers to investigate their stated behavior toward fisheries regulations. We assessed possible (non)compliant behavior under scenarios where fishers would face a moratorium on some of their target species. Additionally, we investigated the consequences of such a moratorium on the food web if it were to lead to fishing alternative species. Using data from two Brazilian coastal sites, we found that younger fishers and those who demonstrated a trustworthy relationship with stakeholders were inclined to comply with the rules. The level of potential compliance also varied between the studied places, probably due to unidentified local idiosyncrasies. Fishers tended to trust community actors (e.g., the leader or head of the fishing community) more than institutional actors (e.g., environmental agencies). When fishers were asked why they would choose specific replacement species in the event of a moratorium, they most often cited expected profitability and ease of capture as reasons. Fishers also tended to say that they would replace endangered species with species in the same and/or lower trophic categories. We suggest working toward stronger stakeholder engagement, given that an overall sense of trust in a community appears to be an important asset toward successful management. Higher levels of trust could promote more transparency in the decision-making process, which could facilitate information dissemination, awareness, and the need for compliance. The mixed methods approach used here could help predict responses to new and existing management policies and support adaptive fisheries management.

SOS small pelagics: A safe operating space for small pelagic fish in the western Mediterranean Sea

Sustainable fishing practices must ensure human wellbeing by safeguarding the integrity of marine life-supporting systems. Unfortunately, a significant challenge to fisheries management is that sustainable fishing levels can decline, often synergistically, by co-occurring with climate-driven environmental stressors. Within one of the most impacted marine areas in the world, and encompassing a number of highly targeted commercial species, the small pelagic fish community of the western Mediterranean Sea has recently shown signs of collapse. In this study, we identify a worrying coincidence where fishing hotspots for the commercially valuable European sardine Sardina pilchardus and anchovy Engraulis encrasicolus occur in marine areas mostly affected by climate change. To identify these areas, we overlayed detailed, spatially explicit measurements of fishing pressure with the finest-scale maps of cumulative climate change impacts onto these species. According to our results, doubly impacted marine areas largely occur in the north-western Mediterranean Sea, with climate and fisheries mostly affecting European sardine. Reducing local stressors (i.e., fishing pressure) in highly impacted areas may contribute to maintain these communities within a "safe operating space" (SOS), where they remain resilient to climate change. Accordingly, the redistribution and/or reduction of fishing intensity may alleviate pressure in those areas already affected by climate change. Sustainable fishing strategies may benefit, therefore, from the SOS concept and the spatial assessments provided in this study.

Main drivers of spatial change in the biomass of commercial species between summer and winter in the NW Mediterranean Sea

There is a general lack of information related to the spatial structure and functioning of marine ecosystems considering seasonality. Here, we modeled the biomass distribution of eight commercial marine species in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea during winter and summer. We hypothesised that the seasonal differences of the water column and the spatial heterogeneity of oceanographic conditions in the study area could result in seasonal variations on the species biomass distributions. We employed a Bayesian hierarchical species distribution modelling approach (B-SDM) with data from two experimental trawl surveys to analyse which are the significant drivers in each season. Our results showed that bathymetry, temperature and fishing patterns are important variables explaining the species spatial biomass distributions. Furthermore, we found seasonal differentiation in the spatial distribution of biomass for all the studied species. Our results provide essential knowledge about the seasonal distributions of key species in the Mediterranean Sea, with important management implications.

Trophic interactions will expand geographically but be less intense as oceans warm

Interactions among species are likely to change geographically due to climate-driven species range shifts and in intensity due to physiological responses to increasing temperatures. Marine ectotherms experience temperatures closer to their upper thermal limits due to the paucity of temporary thermal refugia compared to those available to terrestrial organisms. Thermal limits of marine ectotherms also vary among species and trophic levels, making their trophic interactions more prone to changes as oceans warm. We assessed how temperature affects reef fish trophic interactions in the Western Atlantic and modeled projections of changes in fish occurrence, biomass, and feeding intensity across latitudes due to climate change. Under ocean warming, tropical reefs will experience diminished trophic interactions, particularly herbivory and invertivory, potentially reinforcing algal dominance in this region. Tropicalization events are more likely to occur in the northern hemisphere, where feeding by tropical herbivores is predicted to expand from the northern Caribbean to extratropical reefs. Conversely, feeding by omnivores is predicted to decrease in this area with minor increases in the Caribbean and southern Brazil. Feeding by invertivores declines across all latitudes in future predictions, jeopardizing a critical trophic link. Most changes are predicted to occur by 2050 and can significantly affect ecosystem functioning, causing dominance shifts and the rise of novel ecosystems.

Using a Bayesian modelling approach (INLA-SPDE) to predict the occurrence of the Spinetail Devil Ray (Mobular mobular)

To protect the most vulnerable marine species it is essential to have an understanding of their spatiotemporal distributions. In recent decades, Bayesian statistics have been successfully used to quantify uncertainty surrounding identified areas of interest for bycatch species. However, conventional simulation-based approaches are often computationally intensive. To address this issue, in this study, an alternative Bayesian approach (Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation with Stochastic Partial Differential Equation, INLA-SPDE) is used to predict the occurrence of Mobula mobular species in the eastern Pacific Ocean (EPO). Specifically, a Generalized Additive Model is implemented to analyze data from the Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission’s (IATTC) tropical tuna purse-seine fishery observer bycatch database (2005–2015). The INLA-SPDE approach had the potential to predict both the areas of importance in the EPO, that are already known for this species, and the more marginal hotspots, such as the Gulf of California and the Equatorial area which are not identified using other habitat models. Some drawbacks were identified with the INLA-SPDE database, including the difficulties of dealing with categorical variables and triangulating effectively to analyze spatial data. Despite these challenges, we conclude that INLA approach method is an useful complementary and/or alternative approach to traditional ones when modeling bycatch data to inform accurately management decisions.

A trophic latitudinal gradient revealed in anchovy and sardine from the Western Mediterranean Sea using a multi-proxy approach

This work combines state-of-the-art methods (DNA metabarcoding) with classic approaches (visual stomach content characterization and stable isotope analyses of nitrogen (δ¹⁵N) and carbon (δ¹³C)) to investigate the trophic ecology of anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) and sardine (Sardina pilchardus) at high taxonomic and spatial resolution in the Western Mediterranean Sea. Gut contents observed are in accordance with the dietary plasticity generally described for anchovy and sardine, suggesting a diet related to the opportunistic ingestion of available prey in a certain area and/or time. Genetic tools also showed modest inter-specific differences regarding ingested species. However, inter-specific and intra-specific differences in ingested prey frequencies and prey biomass reflected a latitudinal signal that could indicate a more effective predation on large prey like krill by anchovy versus sardine, as well as a generalized higher large prey ingestion by both species southwards. In fact, both species presented lower δ¹⁵N in the northernmost area. This latitudinal gradient indicates changes in the trophic ecology of anchovy and sardine that coincide with previously described better biological conditions for fish in the southern part of the study area as well as higher landings of both species in recent years.

Ingestion of microplastics and occurrence of parasite association in Mediterranean anchovy and sardine

We quantified the incidence of microplastics in the gut contents of the European sardine (Sardina pilchardus) and anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) in the Northwestern Mediterranean Sea and tested which variables influence this abundance, including the prevalence of parasites (i.e., trematoda larvae and nematodes). We detected a 58% occurrence of microplastics ingestion in sardines and a 60% in anchovies. With respect to sardines, the individuals with lower body conditions were found to have the highest microplastics ingestion probabilities, whereas in anchovies such probabilities were observed in individuals with higher gonadosomatic indices and smaller size. The areas with the highest microplastics ingestion probabilities were the Gulf of Alicante for sardines and the Gulf of Lion - Ebro Delta for anchovies. Both species showed a positive relationship between parasites and microplastics ingestion. These results highlight that both parasitism and ingestion of microplastics are concerns for the health of marine stocks and human consumers.

Climate-induced changes in the suitable habitat of cold-water corals and commercially important deep-sea fishes in the North Atlantic

The deep sea plays a critical role in global climate regulation through uptake and storage of heat and carbon dioxide. However, this regulating service causes warming, acidification and deoxygenation of deep waters, leading to decreased food availability at the seafloor. These changes and their projections are likely to affect productivity, biodiversity and distributions of deep-sea fauna, thereby compromising key ecosystem services. Understanding how climate change can lead to shifts in deep-sea species distributions is critically important in developing management measures. We used environmental niche modelling along with the best available species occurrence data and environmental parameters to model habitat suitability for key cold-water coral and commercially important deep-sea fish species under present-day (1951-2000) environmental conditions and to project changes under severe, high emissions future (2081-2100) climate projections (RCP8.5 scenario) for the North Atlantic Ocean. Our models projected a decrease of 28%-100% in suitable habitat for cold-water corals and a shift in suitable habitat for deep-sea fishes of 2.0°-9.9° towards higher latitudes. The largest reductions in suitable habitat were projected for the scleractinian coral Lophelia pertusa and the octocoral Paragorgia arborea, with declines of at least 79% and 99% respectively. We projected the expansion of suitable habitat by 2100 only for the fishes Helicolenus dactylopterus and Sebastes mentella (20%-30%), mostly through northern latitudinal range expansion. Our results projected limited climate refugia locations in the North Atlantic by 2100 for scleractinian corals (30%-42% of present-day suitable habitat), even smaller refugia locations for the octocorals Acanella arbuscula and Acanthogorgia armata (6%-14%), and almost no refugia for P. arborea. Our results emphasize the need to understand how anticipated climate change will affect the distribution of deep-sea species including commercially important fishes and foundation species, and highlight the importance of identifying and preserving climate refugia for a range of area-based planning and management tools.

Assessing drivers of tropical and subtropical marine fish collapses of Brazilian Exclusive Economic Zone

Overfishing is a concerning threat that can lead to the collapse of fish stocks. We assessed the combinations of factors, including biological traits, types of exploitation and responses to sea temperature and salinity changes, that drive species to collapse in the Brazilian Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) tropical and subtropical regions. We applied a catch-based method of stock classification and a catch time series of 61 years from 132 exploited fish species. Species were categorized as Collapsed, Overexploited, Fully Exploited or in Development, and we used a GAM analysis to understand their categorization over time. Furthermore, a Redundancy Analysis was developed to assess the species characteristics that best predicted each exploitation category. Twelve species were classified as Collapsed, 55 as Overexploited, 46 as Fully Exploited and 19 as in Development. Tropical and subtropical exploited species collapses in Brazil were best explained by a complex combination of a negative impact of warmer sea temperatures, fishery exploitation and specific life-history traits. A synergistic interaction between these factors could bring species to collapse. We hypothesize that the exploitation of species with vulnerable traits may alter how these species respond to temperature and, therefore, lead them to collapse given that intense exploitation may affect their ability to respond to temperature increases. Measures to mitigate climate change impacts should take into consideration incentives to decrease the exploitation of vulnerable species and, specifically, consider species with more sensitive biological traits. Such measures are also important to minimize the socioeconomic impacts on the people that depend on these species.

Environmental characteristics associated with the presence of the Spinetail devil ray (Mobula mobular) in the eastern tropical Pacific

In the eastern Pacific Ocean, the tropical tuna purse-seine fishery incidentally captures high numbers of five mobulid bycatch species; all of which are classified as mortalities by the Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission due to uncertainties in post-release mortality rates. To date, the factors (operational or environmental) leading to the capture of these species by the fishery have not been well studied. Here, we developed Generalized Additive Models for fisheries observer data to analyze the relationships between the presence/absence of Mobula mobular bycatch and oceanographic conditions, the spatial and temporal variability in fishing location, and the set type (associated with dolphins, free-swimming tuna schools or floating objects). Our results suggest that chlorophyll concentration and sea surface height are the most important variables to describe the presence of M. mobular in conjunction with geographic location (latitude and longitude) and set type. Presence of the species was predicted in waters with chlorophyll concentrations between 0.5–1 mg·m^-3 and with sea surface height values close to 0; which indicates direct relationships with productive upwelling systems. Seasonally, M. mobular was observed more frequently during December-January and August-September. We also found the highest probability of presence observed in School sets, followed by Dolphin sets. Three areas were observed as important hotspots: the area close to the coastal upwelling of northern Peru, the area west to Islands Colon Archipelago (Galapagos) and the area close to the Costa Rica Dome. This information is crucial to identify the mobulids habitat and hotspots that could be managed and protected under dynamic spatial management measures to reduce the mortality of mobulid rays in the eastern Pacific purse-seine fishery and, hence, ensure the sustainability of the populations of these iconic species.

The Bias of combining variables on fish's aggressive behavior studies

Quantifying animal aggressive behavior by behavioral units, either displays or attacks, is a common practice in animal behavior studies. However, this practice can generate a bias in data analysis, especially when the variables have different temporal patterns. This study aims to use Bayesian Hierarchical Linear Models (B-HLMs) to analyze the feasibility of pooling the aggressive behavior variables of four cichlids species. Additionally, this paper discusses the feasibility of combining variables by examining the usage of different sample sizes and family distributions to aggressive behaviour variables. The subject species were: the angelfish (Pterophyllum scalare), the tiger oscar (Astronotus ocellatus), the Cichlasoma paranaense and the Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus). For each species, 15 groups of 3 individuals were assigned to daily observations (10-min recordings) for 5 days. Aggressive behavior data was labeled according to its aggressive intensity. The variables chase (C), tail beating (TB), push (P), lateral attack (LA) and bite (B) were classified as high intensity. The variables undulation (U), lateral threat (LT) and frontal displays (FD) were classified as low intensity. These behaviors, however, were not present in all species. Model parameters were estimated by Monte Carlo Markov chains using non-informative priors. B-HLMs were performed to assess the impact probability of each variable in the analysis. Results revealed that when combining variables, the resulting distribution is strongly influenced by only one variable in each category. Moreover, in some cases the aggregate values altered the results, which changed the probabilities of the main variables. Species with low aggressive behavior frequencies, such as A. ocellatus, are more sensitive to this bias. LT was the main low intensity variable for all species, while B was the main high intensity variable for the P. scalare and the O. niloticus. LA was the high intensity category variable that was the most relevant for the C. paranaense and A. ocellatus. Moreover, combining the variables did not impact the feasibility of reducing the sample size when compared to using the most quantitative variable. For all species a sample size of 12 did not change the study conclusions. With respect to family distribution, based on DIC values the Gaussian model is more suitable for most of the studied species. However, caution should be taken, because the Gaussian posterior probability distribution overlapped 0 in some cases, which is biologically impossible in aggressive behaviors. The only exception is the A. ocellatus, which, based on DIC values, was the only species better modeled by a Poisson distribution. Bayesian analysis can be therefore considered a strong tool for analyzing aggressive behavior.

Accounting for preferential sampling in species distribution models

Species distribution models (SDMs) are now being widely used in ecology for management and conservation purposes across terrestrial, freshwater, and marine realms. The increasing interest in SDMs has drawn the attention of ecologists to spatial models and, in particular, to geostatistical models, which are used to associate observations of species occurrence or abundance with environmental covariates in a finite number of locations in order to predict where (and how much of) a species is likely to be present in unsampled locations. Standard geostatistical methodology assumes that the choice of sampling locations is independent of the values of the variable of interest. However, in natural environments, due to practical limitations related to time and financial constraints, this theoretical assumption is often violated. In fact, data commonly derive from opportunistic sampling (e.g., whale or bird watching), in which observers tend to look for a specific species in areas where they expect to find it. These are examples of what is referred to as preferential sampling, which can lead to biased predictions of the distribution of the species. The aim of this study is to discuss a SDM that addresses this problem and that it is more computationally efficient than existing MCMC methods. From a statistical point of view, we interpret the data as a marked point pattern, where the sampling locations form a point pattern and the measurements taken in those locations (i.e., species abundance or occurrence) are the associated marks. Inference and prediction of species distribution is performed using a Bayesian approach, and integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) methodology and software are used for model fitting to minimize the computational burden. We show that abundance is highly overestimated at low abundance locations when preferential sampling effects not accounted for, in both a simulated example and a practical application using fishery data. This highlights that ecologists should be aware of the potential bias resulting from preferential sampling and account for it in a model when a survey is based on non-randomized and/or non-systematic sampling.

A risk-based approach to cumulative effect assessments for marine management

Marine ecosystems are increasingly threatened by the cumulative effects of multiple human pressures. Cumulative effect assessments (CEAs) are needed to inform environmental policy and guide ecosystem-based management. Yet, CEAs are inherently complex and seldom linked to real-world management processes. Therefore we propose entrenching CEAs in a risk management process, comprising the steps of risk identification, risk analysis and risk evaluation. We provide guidance to operationalize a risk-based approach to CEAs by describing for each step guiding principles and desired outcomes, scientific challenges and practical solutions. We reviewed the treatment of uncertainty in CEAs and the contribution of different tools and data sources to the implementation of a risk based approach to CEAs. We show that a risk-based approach to CEAs decreases complexity, allows for the transparent treatment of uncertainty and streamlines the uptake of scientific outcomes into the science-policy interface. Hence, its adoption can help bridging the gap between science and decision-making in ecosystem-based management.

Bayesian analysis improves experimental studies about temporal patterning of aggression in fish

This study aims to describe a Bayesian Hierarchical Linear Model (HLM) approach for longitudinal designs in fish's experimental aggressive behavior studies as an alternative to classical methods In particular, we discuss the advantages of Bayesian analysis in dealing with combined variables, non-statistically significant results and required sample size using an experiment of angelfish (Pterophyllum scalare) species as case study. Groups of 3 individuals were subjected to daily observations recorded for 10min during 5days. The frequencies of attacks, displays and the total attacks (attacks+displays) of each record were modeled using Monte Carlo Markov chains. In addition, a Bayesian HLM was performed for measuring the rate of increase/decrease of the aggressive behavior during the time and to assess the probability of difference among days. Results highlighted that using the combined variable of total attacks could lead to biased conclusions as displays and attacks showed an opposite pattern in the experiment. Moreover, depending of the study, this difference in pattern can happen more clearly or more subtly. Subtle changes cannot be detected when p-values are implemented. On the contrary, Bayesian methods provide a clear description of the changes even when patterns are subtle. Additionally, results showed that the number of replicates (15 or 11) invariant the study conclusions as well that using a small sample size could be more evident within the overlapping days, that includes the social rank stability. Therefore, Bayesian analysis seems to be a richer and an adequate statistical approach for fish's aggressive behavior longitudinal designs.

Identifying fish diversity hot-spots in data-poor situations

One of the more challenging tasks in Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) is identifying critical areas for management and conservation of fish stocks. However, this objective is difficult to achieve in data-poor situations with different sources of uncertainty. In the present study we propose a combination of hierarchical Bayesian spatial models and remotely sensed estimates of environmental variables to be used as flexible and reliable statistical tools to identify and map fish species richness and abundance hot-spots. Results show higher species aggregates in areas with higher sea floor rugosity and habitat complexity, and identify clear richness hot-spots. Our findings identify sensitive habitats through essential and easy-to-use interpretation tools, such as predictive maps, which can contribute to improving management and operability of the studied data-poor situations.

Effect of the toxin (microcystin) content of Microcystis on copepod grazing

Although phytoplankton chemical defense may regulate plankton dynamics, demonstrating an ecologically relevant anti-grazer cue is challenging. Presented here is a novel approach to evaluate the quantitative effect of microcystin (MC), the most studied group of cyanobacterial metabolites, on grazing by the common copepod Eudiaptomus gracilis. A temperature-induced gradient in the intracellular MC concentration of three different Microcystis strains enabled the comparison of grazing pressure on cells of the same cyanobacterial strain producing different amounts of MC, in a diet with alternative food (Chlamydomonas). In all treatments, grazing pressure on Microcystis was inversely related to its MC-LR content, while selection for alternative prey was positively related to the MC-LR content of Microcystis. Moreover, grazing on Chlamydomonas also declined with increasing Microcystis MC-LR content, suggesting toxicity related inhibition of E. gracilis. The negative relation between cellular MC-LR concentration and feeding responses supported the anti-grazer hypothesis. Not all MC variants responded to temperature, and some were therefore not associated to grazing responses. Using an induced gradient in the concentration of a suspected phytoplankton defense metabolite to evaluate its quantitative relationship with grazing pressure offers an improved inference on the ecological roles of toxins. Results suggest that either MC-LR or a correlating trait may be inversely linked to the grazer pressure on Microcystis.

Postnatal pituitary and follicular activation: a revisited hypothesis in a sheep model

The importance of postnatal pituitary activation as regards female reproductive development is not yet understood. By taking advantage of the experimental model developed in a previous study, i.e. ewe lambs expressing markedly different ovarian phenotypes at 50 days of age, we designed this study to determine whether differences found in ovarian status during the early prepubertal period are due to different patterns of postnatal pituitary activation, and to assess whether these differences have long lasting effects on subsequent reproductive performance. Results showed that ewe lambs with high antral follicle count (AFC) at 50 days of age had significantly lower plasma FSH concentrations and higher anti-Mullerian hormone (AMH) concentrations during the first 9 weeks of age compared with low AFC ewe lambs (P<0.0001). With a longitudinal experiment we showed that a high AFC in the early prepubertal period is associated with consistently higher AMH concentrations and numbers of antral follicles up to the postpubertal period, and with higher pregnancy rates in the first breeding season. In addition, the effect of age in decreasing AMH concentrations was more marked in the low AFC group. Results of the present study demonstrate that ewe lambs undergo different patterns of postnatal pituitary activation. A high AFC at 50 days of age indicates an advanced phase of ovarian maturation, which was accompanied by constantly higher AMH concentrations up to the postpubertal period, a greater ovarian response to FSH stimulation and by higher pregnancy rates at first mating, as compared with the low AFC group.