Modelling the effects of ionising radiation on a vole population from the Chernobyl Red forest in an ecological context

Dynamic model of changes in the trophic structure of an ecosystem affected by chronic radiation exposure

The conceptual dynamic ecosystem model was developed to evaluate the self-organization of trophic structure in ecosystems during the course of biogenic succession. This model was applied to analyze the possible changes in the ecosystem under impact of the anthropogenic physical stressor - chronic exposure to ionizing irradiation. The model predicts that amount of the limiting biogenic nutrient in the environment can modify the ecological effects of ionizing radiation. Negative effects of the chronic exposure are less significant in ecosystems with high food supply. The model does not show presence of any ecological effect of radiation at the exposure rates less than the derived consideration reference levels, obtained by International Commission on Radiological Protection for individual nature organisms. If the dose rates are higher than those levels, radiation exposure can affect ecological interactions between species. The model shows that environmental hormesis can exist in the ecosystems, impacted by the chronic radiation exposure. The reason of this effect is change of the ecological coefficients (for example, decrease of the predation rate), which in the certain range of parameters leads to the increase of biomasses of all species at the same amount of the limiting biogenic nutrient in ecosystem. Trigger regimes exist in the model ecosystem with mixed-feeding consumers. Within the trigger area, the realization of a particular trophic structure depends on initial species biomasses. A hysteresis phenomenon exists in such ecosystems, which means that the successive changes in the trophic structures realized following the increase of the influencing factor are not reproduced in the same order if the influencing factor was gradually decreased back to its previous values. The model predicts for this case, that the radioactively contaminated ecosystem does not necessarily return to its initial trophic structure, despite the dose rate decreases to the initial levels.

Evolutionary approach for pollution study: The case of ionizing radiation

Estimating the consequences of environmental changes, specifically in a global change context, is essential for conservation issues. In the case of pollutants, the interest in using an evolutionary approach to investigate their consequences has been emphasized since the 2000s, but these studies remain rare compared to the characterization of direct effects on individual features. We focused on the study case of anthropogenic ionizing radiation because, despite its potential strong impact on evolution, the scarcity of evolutionary approaches to study the biological consequences of this stressor is particularly true. In this study, by investigating some particular features of the biological effects of this stressor, and by reviewing existing studies on evolution under ionizing radiation, we suggest that evolutionary approach may help provide an integrative view on the biological consequences of ionizing radiation. We focused on three topics: (i) the mutagenic properties of ionizing radiation and its disruption of evolutionary processes, (ii) exposures at different time scales, leading to an interaction between past and contemporary evolution, and (iii) the special features of contaminated areas called exclusion zones and how evolution could match field and laboratory observed effects. This approach can contribute to answering several key issues in radioecology: to explain species differences in the sensitivity to ionizing radiation, to improve our estimation of the impacts of ionizing radiation on populations, and to help identify the environmental features impacting organisms (e.g., interaction with other pollution, migration of populations, anthropogenic environmental changes). Evolutionary approach would benefit from being integrated to the ecological risk assessment process.

A research and development roadmap to support applications of the enhanced BIOMASS methodology

The International Atomic Energy Agency has coordinated an international project addressing enhancements of methods for modelling the biosphere in post-closure safety assessments of solid radioactive waste disposal. This has resulted in the enhanced BIOMASS methodology that is described elsewhere in this special issue. To a large degree, the enhancements to the BIOMASS methodology arose from experience gained in applying the original methodology, both in the context of other international projects and in assessments of existing or proposed disposal facilities for solid radioactive wastes. Here, this experience is used, together with information on the status of solid radioactive waste disposal programmes worldwide, to identify opportunities for applying the enhanced methodology and for learning from those applications. This provides a basis for identifying research and development to support application of the enhanced methodology in a variety of environmental settings. These research and development requirements include aspects related to climate change under a variety of forcing scenarios, landform development in climatic regimes ranging from cold, polar to arid, tropical, modelling of groundwater flow and contaminant transport in surface-water catchments where both fractured rock and porous sediments are present, and studies of the transport of key radioisotopes of elements central to major biogeochemical cycles, such as those of carbon, chlorine, sulphur and iodine. In addition, some remarks are made on aspects of the application of the enhanced methodology that could imply review and updating of regulations and regulatory guidance, e.g. in relation to the definition of representative persons or groups to be considered in assessments and in respect of approaches to the assessment of radiological impacts on non-human biota. Furthermore, consideration is given as to how the scientific and technical experience that has been gained and methods that have been developed in the context of solid radioactive disposal facilities could support management of contaminated sites and legacy facilities that are likely to require long-term management and stewardship.

Towards an ecological modelling approach for assessing ionizing radiation impact on wildlife populations

The emphasis of the international system of radiological protection of the environment is to protect populations of flora and fauna. Throughout the MODARIA programmes, the United Nations' International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has facilitated knowledge sharing, data gathering and model development on the effect of radiation on wildlife. We present a summary of the achievements of MODARIA I and II on wildlife dose effect modelling, extending to a new sensitivity analysis and model development to incorporate other stressors. We reviewed evidence on historical doses and transgenerational effects on wildlife from radioactively contaminated areas. We also evaluated chemical population modelling approaches, discussing similarities and differences between chemical and radiological impact assessment in wildlife. We developed population modelling methodologies by sourcing life history and radiosensitivity data and evaluating the available models, leading to the formulation of an ecosystem-based mathematical approach. This resulted in an ecologically relevant conceptual population model, which we used to produce advice on the evaluation of risk criteria used in the radiological protection of the environment and a proposed modelling extension for chemicals. This work seeks to inform stakeholder dialogue on factors influencing wildlife population responses to radiation, including discussions on the ecological relevance of current environmental protection criteria. The area of assessment of radiation effects in wildlife is still developing with underlying data and models continuing to be improved. IAEA's ongoing support to facilitate the sharing of new knowledge, models and approaches to Member States is highlighted, and we give suggestions for future developments in this regard.

A few considerations on some current modelling approaches to assess the impact of radiation on the population size of wildlife species

This note outlines some features of current state-of-the-art models aimed at assessing the radiological impact on wildlife. Such models can be interpreted as particular realisations of an archetypal model from which they can be derived on the basis of specific hypotheses described and analysed here. A stressor can influence, to varying degrees, on the one hand, the inherent biological mortality of a species and, on the other hand, the actual mortality of a species competing for survival in the ecosystem. Generally, the actual mortality rate of a species impacted by a stressor is linked through complicated mathematical relationships to the excess biological mortality caused by the stressor. Such relationships may depend on the particular type of model. The models can be of help to select criteria for the assessment of the radiological impact and to identify suitable parameters for its evaluation.

Assessment of herb field mouse (Sylvaemus uralensis) migration in the area of the East Urals Radioactive Trace using measurements of bone-seeking 90Sr

The dynamics of rodent population in the area of East Urals Radioactive Trace (EURT) is one of the controversial issues, which are of key importance for the radiobiological and radioecological interpretation of the observed radiation effects. The objective of the paper is to evaluate the probability of migration in population of the herb field mouse (Sylvaemus uralensis Pall., 1811) based on ⁹⁰Sr activity concentrations in the mouse bones. Radiometric data for bones of 768 mice captured at 9 sites in the EURT territory (with different environmental contamination levels) in 2001-2012 were used. The distribution of bone-seeking ⁹⁰Sr in the juvenile age group of mice is used as a model of the width of radionuclide distribution in the bones of permanent inhabitants. Comparison of the model predictions and observations in different age and functional groups within the population structure allows simulating the probability of migration and evaluating the fraction of migrants. It is shown that the accumulation of ⁹⁰Sr in bones correlates with soil contamination at the capture sites. Individual variability in the specific activity of ⁹⁰Sr in the skeleton tends to increase with the age of animals. The rate of herb field mouse migration is estimated as 7 and 15% per year (for underyearlings and wintered individuals, respectively). The animals captured in the EURT area (all animals, including juvenile individuals) are "diluted" with animals from non-contaminated territories by 5-12%. The average half-time of substitution of the exposed population by migrants from non-contaminated territories is 8 years. Today, the fraction of descendants of the animals, that for generations have permanently inhabited the EURT territory since 1957, is negligible (on average-1.2% and not exceeding 17%). The proposed method of probabilistic analysis of ⁹⁰Sr in the bones could be used to study migration activity of other species of rodents.