Connecting human behaviour, meaning and nature

Much of the discourse around climate change and the situation of diverse human societies and cultures in the Anthropocene focuses on responding to scientific understanding of the dynamics of the biosphere by adjusting existing institutional and organizational structures. Our emerging scientific understanding of human behaviour and the mechanisms that enable groups to achieve large-scale coordination and cooperation suggests that incrementally adjusting existing institutions and organizations will not be sufficient to confront current global-scale challenges. Specifically, the transaction costs of operating institutions to induce selfish rational actors to consider social welfare in their decision-making are too high. Rather, we highlight the importance of networks of shared stories that become real-imagined orders-that create context, meaning and shared purpose for framing decisions and guiding action. We explore imagined orders that have contributed to bringing global societies to where they are and propose elements of a science-informed imagined order essential to enabling societies to flourish in the Anthropocene biosphere. This article is part of the theme issue 'Bringing nature into decision-making'.

Projected future climatic forcing on the global distribution of vegetation types

Most emissions scenarios suggest temperature and precipitation regimes will change dramatically across the globe over the next 500 years. These changes will have large impacts on the biosphere, with species forced to migrate to follow their preferred environmental conditions, therefore moving and fragmenting ecosystems. However, most projections of the impacts of climate change only reach 2100, limiting our understanding of the temporal scope of climate impacts, and potentially impeding suitable adaptive action. To address this data gap, we model future climate change every 20 years from 2000 to 2500 CE, under different CO2 emissions scenarios, using a general circulation model. We then apply a biome model to these modelled climate futures, to investigate shifts in climatic forcing on vegetation worldwide, the feasibility of the migration required to enact these modelled vegetation changes, and potential overlap with human land use based on modern-day anthromes. Under a business-as-usual scenario, up to 40% of terrestrial area is expected to be suited to a different biome by 2500. Cold-adapted biomes, particularly boreal forest and dry tundra, are predicted to experience the greatest losses of suitable area. Without mitigation, these changes could have severe consequences both for global biodiversity and the provision of ecosystem services. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

Developing a predictive science of the biosphere requires the integration of scientific cultures

Increasing the speed of scientific progress is urgently needed to address the many challenges associated with the biosphere in the Anthropocene. Consequently, the critical question becomes: How can science most rapidly progress to address large, complex global problems? We suggest that the lag in the development of a more predictive science of the biosphere is not only because the biosphere is so much more complex, or because we do not have enough data, or are not doing enough experiments, but, in large part, because of unresolved tension between the three dominant scientific cultures that pervade the research community. We introduce and explain the concept of the three scientific cultures and present a novel analysis of their characteristics, supported by examples and a formal mathematical definition/representation of what this means and implies. The three cultures operate, to varying degrees, across all of science. However, within the biosciences, and in contrast to some of the other sciences, they remain relatively more separated, and their lack of integration has hindered their potential power and insight. Our solution to accelerating a broader, predictive science of the biosphere is to enhance integration of scientific cultures. The process of integration-Scientific Transculturalism-recognizes that the push for interdisciplinary research, in general, is just not enough. Unless these cultures of science are formally appreciated and their thinking iteratively integrated into scientific discovery and advancement, there will continue to be numerous significant challenges that will increasingly limit forecasting and prediction efforts.

The illusion of balance in the history of the biosphere

Earth's surface has been irreversibly altered by the activity of organisms, a process that has accelerated as the power of the biosphere (the rate at which life extracts and deploys energy) has increased over time. This trend is incompatible with the expectation that the inputs to Earth's surface of life's materials from the crust and mantle be matched by export from Earth's surface to long-term reservoirs. Here, I suggest that the collective activity of organisms has always violated this balance. The biosphere's ability to extract, retain, recycle, and accumulate materials has allowed living biomass to increase and for exports to decrease over very long timescales. This collective metabolism implies a net transfer of materials from the planet's interior to its surface. The combination of metabolic innovations, competition, adaptive evolution, and the establishment of collaborative economic feedback in ecosystems created dynamic ecological stability despite great spatial and temporal heterogeneity in physical and biological inputs and export of nutrients into and out of the biosphere. Models of geochemical cycling must take the fundamental role of living organisms and the evolutionary changes in these roles into account to explain past and future conditions.

The geologic history of primary productivity

The rate of primary productivity is a keystone variable in driving biogeochemical cycles today and has been throughout Earth's past.1 For example, it plays a critical role in determining nutrient stoichiometry in the oceans,2 the amount of global biomass,3 and the composition of Earth's atmosphere.4 Modern estimates suggest that terrestrial and marine realms contribute near-equal amounts to global gross primary productivity (GPP).5 However, this productivity balance has shifted significantly in both recent times6 and through deep time.7,8 Combining the marine and terrestrial components, modern GPP fixes ≈250 billion tonnes of carbon per year (Gt C year-1).5,9,10,11 A grand challenge in the study of the history of life on Earth has been to constrain the trajectory that connects present-day productivity to the origin of life. Here, we address this gap by piecing together estimates of primary productivity from the origin of life to the present day. We estimate that ∼1011-1012 Gt C has cumulatively been fixed through GPP (≈100 times greater than Earth's entire carbon stock). We further estimate that 1039-1040 cells have occupied the Earth to date, that more autotrophs than heterotrophs have ever existed, and that cyanobacteria likely account for a larger proportion than any other group in terms of the number of cells. We discuss implications for evolutionary trajectories and highlight the early Proterozoic, which encompasses the Great Oxidation Event (GOE), as the time where most uncertainty exists regarding the quantitative census presented here.

Wet feet: developing sulfur isotope provenance methods to identify wetland inhabitants

The stable isotopes of sulfur provide a distinctive signature for marine proximity and interaction. Exploring coastal proximity has been the principal application of sulfur isotopes in archaeology and palaeoecology, but this deals only with high (greater than 14‰) isotope values, meaning little interpretation has been gained from lower values. Progress has been hindered by issues with biosphere mapping. Air pollution can impact modern landscapes, significantly lowering sulfur isotope baselines, leading to the assumption that modern vegetation-based sulfur maps are not reliable. This research explores the potential of previously undiagnostic low, and often, negative sulfur isotope values for identifying wetland dwellers. Impervious clays that support wetlands are distinctive ecosystems and this study tests the hypothesis that they will produce low isotope values owing to both the underlying substrate and to redox conditions. Primary mapping of targeted areas using modern plants highlights zones with natural negative sulfur values and demonstrates that this constitutes a distinctive wetland signature. Analysis of modern and archaeological fauna demonstrates that these distinctive isotope compositions are transferred into the food chain. These findings propel the interpretative potential of sulfur isotopes forward and add to the growing knowledge to provide means for identifying archaeological humans and animals raised in wetlands.

Planetary Scale Information Transmission in the Biosphere and Technosphere: Limits and Evolution

Information transmission via communication between agents is ubiquitous on Earth, and is a vital facet of living systems. In this paper, we aim to quantify this rate of information transmission associated with Earth's biosphere and technosphere (i.e., a measure of global information flow) by means of a heuristic order-of-magnitude model. By adopting ostensibly conservative values for the salient parameters, we estimate that the global information transmission rate for the biosphere might be ∼1024 bits/s, and that it may perhaps exceed the corresponding rate for the current technosphere by ∼9 orders of magnitude. However, under the equivocal assumption of sustained exponential growth, we find that information transmission in the technosphere can potentially surpass that of the biosphere ∼90 years in the future, reflecting its increasing dominance.

Informational Resilience in the Human Cognitive Ecology

Resilience is a basic trait of cognitive systems and fundamentally connected to their autopoietic organization. It plays a vital role in maintaining the identity of cognitive systems in the face of external threats and perturbances. However, when examining resilience in the context of autopoiesis, an overlooked issue arises: the autopoietic theory formulated by Maturana and Varela (1980) renders traditional Shannon information obsolete, highlighting that information should not be ascribed a role in cognitive systems in a general sense. This paper examines the current situation and suggests a possible way forward by exploring an affordance-based view on information, derived from radical cognitive science, which is exempted from Maturana and Varela's critique. Specifically, it argues that the impact of social influence on affordance use is crucial when considering how resilience can manifest in informational relations pertaining to the human cognitive ecology.

The Non-Equilibrium Thermodynamics of Natural Selection: From Molecules to the Biosphere

Evolutionary theory suggests that the origin, persistence, and evolution of biology is driven by the "natural selection" of characteristics improving the differential reproductive success of the organism in the given environment. The theory, however, lacks physical foundation, and, therefore, at best, can only be considered a heuristic narrative, of some utility for assimilating the biological and paleontological data at the level of the organism. On deeper analysis, it becomes apparent that this narrative is plagued with problems and paradoxes. Alternatively, non-equilibrium thermodynamic theory, derived from physical law, provides a physical foundation for describing material interaction with its environment at all scales. Here we describe a "natural thermodynamic selection" of characteristics of structures (or processes), based stochastically on increases in the global rate of dissipation of the prevailing solar spectrum. Different mechanisms of thermodynamic selection are delineated for the different biotic-abiotic levels, from the molecular level at the origin of life, up to the level of the present biosphere with non-linear coupling of biotic and abiotic processes. At the levels of the organism and the biosphere, the non-equilibrium thermodynamic description of evolution resembles, respectively, the Darwinian and Gaia descriptions, although the underlying mechanisms and the objective function of selection are fundamentally very different.

The global biomass of wild mammals

Wild mammals are icons of conservation efforts, yet there is no rigorous estimate available for their overall global biomass. Biomass as a metric allows us to compare species with very different body sizes, and can serve as an indicator of wild mammal presence, trends, and impacts, on a global scale. Here, we compiled estimates of the total abundance (i.e., the number of individuals) of several hundred mammal species from the available data, and used these to build a model that infers the total biomass of terrestrial mammal species for which the global abundance is unknown. We present a detailed assessment, arriving at a total wet biomass of ≈20 million tonnes (Mt) for all terrestrial wild mammals (95% CI 13-38 Mt), i.e., ≈3 kg per person on earth. The primary contributors to the biomass of wild land mammals are large herbivores such as the white-tailed deer, wild boar, and African elephant. We find that even-hoofed mammals (artiodactyls, such as deer and boars) represent about half of the combined mass of terrestrial wild mammals. In addition, we estimated the total biomass of wild marine mammals at ≈40 Mt (95% CI 20-80 Mt), with baleen whales comprising more than half of this mass. In order to put wild mammal biomass into perspective, we additionally estimate the biomass of the remaining members of the class Mammalia. The total mammal biomass is overwhelmingly dominated by livestock (≈630 Mt) and humans (≈390 Mt). This work is a provisional census of wild mammal biomass on Earth and can serve as a benchmark for human impacts.

A resilience sensing system for the biosphere

We are in a climate and ecological emergency, where climate change and direct anthropogenic interference with the biosphere are risking abrupt and/or irreversible changes that threaten our life-support systems. Efforts are underway to increase the resilience of some ecosystems that are under threat, yet collective awareness and action are modest at best. Here, we highlight the potential for a biosphere resilience sensing system to make it easier to see where things are going wrong, and to see whether deliberate efforts to make things better are working. We focus on global resilience sensing of the terrestrial biosphere at high spatial and temporal resolution through satellite remote sensing, utilizing the generic mathematical behaviour of complex systems-loss of resilience corresponds to slower recovery from perturbations, gain of resilience equates to faster recovery. We consider what subset of biosphere resilience remote sensing can monitor, critically reviewing existing studies. Then we present illustrative, global results for vegetation resilience and trends in resilience over the last 20 years, from both satellite data and model simulations. We close by discussing how resilience sensing nested across global, biome-ecoregion, and local ecosystem scales could aid management and governance at these different scales, and identify priorities for further work. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological complexity and the biosphere: the next 30 years'.

Is Self-Transcendence Philanthropic? Graded Response Model Approach

This study reveals that strong feelings of altruism were found to be statistically significant in explaining prosocial and pro-environmental behaviors. However, this was not the case for the latent trait biosphere in explaining pro-environmental behavior (e.g., past volunteering in clean-up activities). Regardless of whether they are overseas graduates or not, subjects in this study are more altruistic than biospheric by nature. Using the Graded Response Model (GRM) approach, the study found that the biosphere and altruism are obviously independent of each other and merging them into one dimension, in this instance referred to as “self-transcendence,” makes the construct less reliable. That is why this study in consistence with previous studies could not detect the effect of self-transcendence statistically, as it affects both the past volunteering in environmental affairs and the past volunteering in social welfare.

A research and development roadmap to support applications of the enhanced BIOMASS methodology

The International Atomic Energy Agency has coordinated an international project addressing enhancements of methods for modelling the biosphere in post-closure safety assessments of solid radioactive waste disposal. This has resulted in the enhanced BIOMASS methodology that is described elsewhere in this special issue. To a large degree, the enhancements to the BIOMASS methodology arose from experience gained in applying the original methodology, both in the context of other international projects and in assessments of existing or proposed disposal facilities for solid radioactive wastes. Here, this experience is used, together with information on the status of solid radioactive waste disposal programmes worldwide, to identify opportunities for applying the enhanced methodology and for learning from those applications. This provides a basis for identifying research and development to support application of the enhanced methodology in a variety of environmental settings. These research and development requirements include aspects related to climate change under a variety of forcing scenarios, landform development in climatic regimes ranging from cold, polar to arid, tropical, modelling of groundwater flow and contaminant transport in surface-water catchments where both fractured rock and porous sediments are present, and studies of the transport of key radioisotopes of elements central to major biogeochemical cycles, such as those of carbon, chlorine, sulphur and iodine. In addition, some remarks are made on aspects of the application of the enhanced methodology that could imply review and updating of regulations and regulatory guidance, e.g. in relation to the definition of representative persons or groups to be considered in assessments and in respect of approaches to the assessment of radiological impacts on non-human biota. Furthermore, consideration is given as to how the scientific and technical experience that has been gained and methods that have been developed in the context of solid radioactive disposal facilities could support management of contaminated sites and legacy facilities that are likely to require long-term management and stewardship.

Safety assessments undertaken using the BIOMASS methodology: lessons learnt and methodological enhancements

The International Atomic Energy Agency has coordinated an international project addressing enhancements of methods for modelling in post-closure safety assessments of solid radioactive waste disposal. The project used earlier published work from the IAEA biosphere modelling and assessment (BIOMASS) project to further develop methods and techniques. The task was supported by a parallel on-going project within the BIOPROTA forum. The output from the project is described in detail in a forthcoming IAEA report. Here an overview of the work is given to provide researchers in the broader fields of radioecology and radioactive waste disposal with a summarised review of the enhanced BIOMASS methodology and the work that has been undertaken during the project. It is hoped that such dissemination will support and promote integrated understanding and coherent treatment of the biosphere component within the overall assessment process. The key activities undertaken in the project were: review and identification of those parts of the original BIOMASS methodology that needed enhancement, discussions on lessons learned from applying the BIOMASS method, using real examples to assess the methodology and its usefulness, and writing of those parts of the methodology that were considered could benefit from refinement or for which new guidance was required to take account of scientific developments. The work has shown that the overall approach in the original BIOMASS methodology has proven sound. However, the enhanced version clarifies the need for an iterative and holistic approach with system understanding central to the approach. Specifically, experience, especially in site-specific contexts, has emphasised that adequate system understanding is essential in underpinning safety assessments for radioactive waste disposal. The integral role of the biosphere within safety assessment is also emphasised in the enhanced methodology.

A GC-IRMS method for measuring sulfur isotope ratios of carbonyl sulfide from small air samples

A new system was developed for measuring sulfur isotopes δ 33S and δ 34S from atmospheric carbonyl sulfide (COS) on small air samples of several liters, using pre-concentration and gas chromatography - isotope ratio mass spectrometry (GC-IRMS). Measurements of COS isotopes provide a tool for quantifying the COS budget, which will help towards better understanding climate feedback mechanisms. For a 4 liter sample at ambient COS mixing ratio, ~500 parts per trillion (ppt), we obtain a reproducibility error of 2.1 ‰ for δ 33S and 0.4 ‰ for δ 34S. After applying corrections, the uncertainty for an individual ambient air sample measurement is 2.5 ‰ for δ 33S and 0.9 ‰ for δ 34S. The ability to measure small samples allows application to a global-scale sampling program with limited logistical effort. To illustrate the application of this newly developed system, we present a timeseries of ambient air measurements, during the fall and winter of 2020 and 2021 in Utrecht, the Netherlands. The observed background values were δ 33S = 1.0 ± 3.4 ‰ and δ 34S = 15.5 ± 0.8 ‰ (VCDT). The maximum observed COS mixing ratios was only 620 ppt. This, in combination with the relatively high δ 34S suggests that the Netherlands receives little COS-containing anthropogenic emissions. We observed a change in COS mixing ratio and δ 34S with different air mass origin, as modelled with HYSPLIT backward trajectory analyses. An increase of 40 ppt in mean COS mixing ratio was observed between fall and winter, which is consistent with the expected seasonal cycle in the Netherlands. Additionally, we present the results of samples from a highway tunnel to characterize vehicle COS emissions and isotopic composition. The vehicle emissions were small, with COS/CO 2 being 0.4 ppt/ppm; the isotopic signatures are depleted relatively to background atmospheric COS.

Ediacaran reorganization of the marine phosphorus cycle

The evolution of macroscopic animals in the latest Proterozoic Eon is associated with many changes in the geochemical environment, but the sequence of cause and effect remains a topic of intense research and debate. In this study, we use two apparently paradoxical observations—that massively phosphorus-rich rocks first appear at this time, and that the median P content of rocks does not change—to argue for a change in internal marine P cycling associated with rising sulfate levels. We argue that this change was self-sustaining, setting in motion a cascade of biogeochemical transformations that led to conditions favorable for major ecological and evolutionary change.

The Ediacaran Period (635 to 541 Ma) marks the global transition to a more productive biosphere, evidenced by increased availability of food and oxidants, the appearance of macroscopic animals, significant populations of eukaryotic phytoplankton, and the onset of massive phosphorite deposition. We propose this entire suite of changes results from an increase in the size of the deep-water marine phosphorus reservoir, associated with rising sulfate concentrations and increased remineralization of organic P by sulfate-reducing bacteria. Simple mass balance calculations, constrained by modern anoxic basins, suggest that deep-water phosphate concentrations may have increased by an order of magnitude without any increase in the rate of P input from the continents. Strikingly, despite a major shift in phosphorite deposition, a new compilation of the phosphorus content of Neoproterozoic and early Paleozoic shows little secular change in median values, supporting the view that changes in remineralization and not erosional P fluxes were the principal drivers of observed shifts in phosphorite accumulation. The trigger for these changes may have been transient Neoproterozoic weathering events whose biogeochemical consequences were sustained by a set of positive feedbacks, mediated by the oxygen and sulfur cycles, that led to permanent state change in biogeochemical cycling, primary production, and biological diversity by the end of the Ediacaran Period.

Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions

The rapid anthropogenic climate change that is being experienced in the early twenty-first century is intimately entwined with the health and functioning of the biosphere. Climate change is impacting ecosystems through changes in mean conditions and in climate variability, coupled with other associated changes such as increased ocean acidification and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. It also interacts with other pressures on ecosystems, including degradation, defaunation and fragmentation. There is a need to understand the ecological dynamics of these climate impacts, to identify hotspots of vulnerability and resilience and to identify management interventions that may assist biosphere resilience to climate change. At the same time, ecosystems can also assist in the mitigation of, and adaptation to, climate change. The mechanisms, potential and limits of such nature-based solutions to climate change need to be explored and quantified. This paper introduces a thematic issue dedicated to the interaction between climate change and the biosphere. It explores novel perspectives on how ecosystems respond to climate change, how ecosystem resilience can be enhanced and how ecosystems can assist in addressing the challenge of a changing climate. It draws on a Royal Society-National Academy of Sciences Forum held in Washington DC in November 2018, where these themes and issues were discussed. We conclude by identifying some priorities for academic research and practical implementation, in order to maximize the potential for maintaining a diverse, resilient and well-functioning biosphere under the challenging conditions of the twenty-first century. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions'.

The broiler chicken as a signal of a human reconfigured biosphere

Changing patterns of human resource use and food consumption have profoundly impacted the Earth's biosphere. Until now, no individual taxa have been suggested as distinct and characteristic new morphospecies representing this change. Here we show that the domestic broiler chicken is one such potential marker. Human-directed changes in breeding, diet and farming practices demonstrate at least a doubling in body size from the late medieval period to the present in domesticated chickens, and an up to fivefold increase in body mass since the mid-twentieth century. Moreover, the skeletal morphology, pathology, bone geochemistry and genetics of modern broilers are demonstrably different to those of their ancestors. Physical and numerical changes to chickens in the second half of the twentieth century, i.e. during the putative Anthropocene Epoch, have been the most dramatic, with large increases in individual bird growth rate and population sizes. Broiler chickens, now unable to survive without human intervention, have a combined mass exceeding that of all other birds on Earth; this novel morphotype symbolizes the unprecedented human reconfiguration of the Earth's biosphere.

The biomass distribution on Earth

The composition of the biosphere is a fundamental question in biology, yet a global quantitative account of the biomass of each taxon is still lacking. We assemble a census of the biomass of all kingdoms of life. This analysis provides a holistic view of the composition of the biosphere and allows us to observe broad patterns over taxonomic categories, geographic locations, and trophic modes.

A census of the biomass on Earth is key for understanding the structure and dynamics of the biosphere. However, a global, quantitative view of how the biomass of different taxa compare with one another is still lacking. Here, we assemble the overall biomass composition of the biosphere, establishing a census of the ≈550 gigatons of carbon (Gt C) of biomass distributed among all of the kingdoms of life. We find that the kingdoms of life concentrate at different locations on the planet; plants (≈450 Gt C, the dominant kingdom) are primarily terrestrial, whereas animals (≈2 Gt C) are mainly marine, and bacteria (≈70 Gt C) and archaea (≈7 Gt C) are predominantly located in deep subsurface environments. We show that terrestrial biomass is about two orders of magnitude higher than marine biomass and estimate a total of ≈6 Gt C of marine biota, doubling the previous estimated quantity. Our analysis reveals that the global marine biomass pyramid contains more consumers than producers, thus increasing the scope of previous observations on inverse food pyramids. Finally, we highlight that the mass of humans is an order of magnitude higher than that of all wild mammals combined and report the historical impact of humanity on the global biomass of prominent taxa, including mammals, fish, and plants.

Integrative View of the Diversity and Evolution of SWEET and SemiSWEET Sugar Transporters

Sugars Will Eventually be Exported Transporter (SWEET) and SemiSWEET are recently characterized families of sugar transporters in eukaryotes and prokaryotes, respectively. SemiSWEETs contain 3 transmembrane helices (TMHs), while SWEETs contain 7. Here, we performed sequence-based comprehensive analyses for SWEETs and SemiSWEETs across the biosphere. In total, 3,249 proteins were identified and ≈60% proteins were found in green plants and Oomycota, which include a number of important plant pathogens. Protein sequence similarity networks indicate that proteins from different organisms are significantly clustered. Of note, SemiSWEETs with 3 or 4 TMHs that may fuse to SWEET were identified in plant genomes. 7-TMH SWEETs were found in bacteria, implying that SemiSWEET can be fused directly in prokaryote. 15-TMH extraSWEET and 25-TMH superSWEET were also observed in wild rice and oomycetes, respectively. The transporters can be classified into 4, 2, 2, and 2 clades in plants, Metazoa, unicellular eukaryotes, and prokaryotes, respectively. The consensus and coevolution of amino acids in SWEETs were identified by multiple sequence alignments. The functions of the highly conserved residues were analyzed by molecular dynamics analysis. The 19 most highly conserved residues in the SWEETs were further confirmed by point mutagenesis using SWEET1 from Arabidopsis thaliana. The results proved that the conserved residues located in the extrafacial gate (Y57, G58, G131, and P191), the substrate binding pocket (N73, N192, and W176), and the intrafacial gate (P43, Y83, F87, P145, M161, P162, and Q202) play important roles for substrate recognition and transport processes. Taken together, our analyses provide a foundation for understanding the diversity, classification, and evolution of SWEETs and SemiSWEETs using large-scale sequence analysis and further show that gene duplication and gene fusion are important factors driving the evolution of SWEETs.

Evidence of current impact of climate change on life: a walk from genes to the biosphere

We review the evidence of how organisms and populations are currently responding to climate change through phenotypic plasticity, genotypic evolution, changes in distribution and, in some cases, local extinction. Organisms alter their gene expression and metabolism to increase the concentrations of several antistress compounds and to change their physiology, phenology, growth and reproduction in response to climate change. Rapid adaptation and microevolution occur at the population level. Together with these phenotypic and genotypic adaptations, the movement of organisms and the turnover of populations can lead to migration toward habitats with better conditions unless hindered by barriers. Both migration and local extinction of populations have occurred. However, many unknowns for all these processes remain. The roles of phenotypic plasticity and genotypic evolution and their possible trade-offs and links with population structure warrant further research. The application of omic techniques to ecological studies will greatly favor this research. It remains poorly understood how climate change will result in asymmetrical responses of species and how it will interact with other increasing global impacts, such as N eutrophication, changes in environmental N : P ratios and species invasion, among many others. The biogeochemical and biophysical feedbacks on climate of all these changes in vegetation are also poorly understood. We here review the evidence of responses to climate change and discuss the perspectives for increasing our knowledge of the interactions between climate change and life.

Radionuclide transport and uptake in coastal aquatic ecosystems: a comparison of a 3D dynamic model and a compartment model

In safety assessments of underground radioactive waste repositories, understanding radionuclide fate in ecosystems is necessary to determine the impacts of potential releases. Here, the reliability of two mechanistic models (the compartmental K-model and the 3D dynamic D-model) in describing the fate of radionuclides released into a Baltic Sea bay is tested. Both are based on ecosystem models that simulate the cycling of organic matter (carbon). Radionuclide transfer is linked to adsorption and flows of carbon in food chains. Accumulation of Th-230, Cs-135, and Ni-59 in biological compartments was comparable between the models and site measurements despite differences in temporal resolution, biological state variables, and partition coefficients. Both models provided confidence limits for their modeled concentration ratios, an improvement over models that only estimate means. The D-model enables estimates at high spatio-temporal resolution. The K-model, being coarser but faster, allows estimates centuries ahead. Future developments could integrate the two models to take advantage of their respective strengths.

Identification and characterization of potential discharge areas for radionuclide transport by groundwater from a nuclear waste repository in Sweden

This paper describes solute transport modeling carried out as a part of an assessment of the long-term radiological safety of a planned deep rock repository for spent nuclear fuel in Forsmark, Sweden. Specifically, it presents transport modeling performed to locate and describe discharge areas for groundwater potentially carrying radionuclides from the repository to the surface where man and the environment could be affected by the contamination. The modeling results show that topography to large extent determines the discharge locations. Present and future lake and wetland objects are central for the radionuclide transport and dose calculations in the safety assessment. Results of detailed transport modeling focusing on the regolith and the upper part of the rock indicate that the identification of discharge areas and objects considered in the safety assessment is robust in the sense that it does not change when a more detailed model representation is used.

From site data to safety assessment: analysis of present and future hydrological conditions at a coastal site in Sweden

This paper presents an analysis of present and future hydrological conditions at the Forsmark site in Sweden, which has been proposed as the site for a geological repository for spent nuclear fuel. Forsmark is a coastal site that changes in response to shoreline displacement. In the considered time frame (until year 10 000 AD), the hydrological system will be affected by landscape succession associated with shoreline displacement and changes in vegetation, regolith stratigraphy, and climate. Based on extensive site investigations and modeling of present hydrological conditions, the effects of different processes on future site hydrology are quantified. As expected, shoreline displacement has a strong effect on local hydrology (e.g., groundwater flow) in areas that change from sea to land. The comparison between present and future land areas emphasizes the importance of climate variables relative to other factors for main hydrological features such as water balances.

Model of the long-term transport and accumulation of radionuclides in future landscapes

Assessments of radiological impacts on humans and other biota from potential releases to the biosphere from a deep geologic repository for spent nuclear fuel are associated with several challenges. Releases, if any, will likely occur in a far future and to an environment that will have experienced substantial transformations. Such releases would occur over very long periods during which environmental conditions will vary continuously due to climate change and ecosystem succession. Assessments of radiological impacts must therefore be based on simulations using models that can describe the transport and accumulation of radionuclides for a large variety of environmental conditions. In this paper we describe such a model and show examples of its application in a safety assessment, taking into account results from sensitivity and uncertainty analyses of the model predictions.