Diurnal temperature range as a key predictor of plants' elevation ranges globally

A prominent hypothesis in ecology is that larger species ranges are found in more variable climates because species develop broader environmental tolerances, predicting a positive range size-temperature variability relationship. However, this overlooks the extreme temperatures that variable climates impose on species, with upper or lower thermal limits more likely to be exceeded. Accordingly, we propose the 'temperature range squeeze' hypothesis, predicting a negative range size-temperature variability relationship. We test these contrasting predictions by relating 88,000 elevation range sizes of vascular plants in 44 mountains to short- and long-term temperature variation. Consistent with our hypothesis, we find that species' range size is negatively correlated with diurnal temperature range. Accurate predictions of short-term temperature variation will become increasingly important for extinction risk assessment in the future.

Anthropogenic land-use legacies underpin climate change-related risks to forest ecosystems

Forest ecosystems with long-lasting human imprints can emerge worldwide as outcomes of land-use cessation. However, the interaction of these anthropogenic legacies with climate change impacts on forests is not well understood. Here, we set out how anthropogenic land-use legacies that persist in forest properties, following alterations in forest distribution, structure, and composition, can interact with climate change stressors. We propose a risk-based framework to identify anthropogenic legacies of land uses in forest ecosystems and quantify the impact of their interaction with climate-related stress on forest responses. Considering anthropogenic land-use legacies alongside environmental drivers of forest ecosystem dynamics will improve our predictive capacity of climate-related risks to forests and our ability to promote ecosystem resilience to climate change.

A balancing act: Principles, criteria and indicator framework to operationalize social-ecological resilience of forests

Against a background of intensifying climate-induced disturbances, the need to enhance the resilience of forests and forest management is gaining urgency. In forest management, multiple trade-offs exist between different demands as well as across and within temporal and spatial scales. However, methods to assess resilience that consider these trade-offs are presently lacking. Here we propose a hierarchical framework of principles, criteria, and indicators to assess the resilience of a social-ecological system by focusing on the mechanisms behind resilience. This hierarchical framework balances trade-offs between mechanisms, different parts of the social-ecological system, ecosystem services, and spatial as well as temporal scales. The framework was developed to be used in a participatory manner in forest management planning. It accounts for the major parts of the forest-related social-ecological system and considers the multiple trade-offs involved. We demonstrate the utility of the framework by applying it to a landscape dominated by Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) in Central Europe, managed for three different management goals. The framework highlights how forest resilience varies with the pursued management goals and related management strategies. The framework is flexible and can be applied to various forest management contexts as part of a participatory process with stakeholders. It thus is an important step towards operationalizing social-ecological resilience in forest management systems.

Global maps of soil temperature

Research in global change ecology relies heavily on global climatic grids derived from estimates of air temperature in open areas at around 2 m above the ground. These climatic grids do not reflect conditions below vegetation canopies and near the ground surface, where critical ecosystem functions occur and most terrestrial species reside. Here, we provide global maps of soil temperature and bioclimatic variables at a 1-km2 resolution for 0-5 and 5-15 cm soil depth. These maps were created by calculating the difference (i.e. offset) between in situ soil temperature measurements, based on time series from over 1200 1-km2 pixels (summarized from 8519 unique temperature sensors) across all the world's major terrestrial biomes, and coarse-grained air temperature estimates from ERA5-Land (an atmospheric reanalysis by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). We show that mean annual soil temperature differs markedly from the corresponding gridded air temperature, by up to 10°C (mean = 3.0 ± 2.1°C), with substantial variation across biomes and seasons. Over the year, soils in cold and/or dry biomes are substantially warmer (+3.6 ± 2.3°C) than gridded air temperature, whereas soils in warm and humid environments are on average slightly cooler (-0.7 ± 2.3°C). The observed substantial and biome-specific offsets emphasize that the projected impacts of climate and climate change on near-surface biodiversity and ecosystem functioning are inaccurately assessed when air rather than soil temperature is used, especially in cold environments. The global soil-related bioclimatic variables provided here are an important step forward for any application in ecology and related disciplines. Nevertheless, we highlight the need to fill remaining geographic gaps by collecting more in situ measurements of microclimate conditions to further enhance the spatiotemporal resolution of global soil temperature products for ecological applications.

SoilTemp: A global database of near-surface temperature

Current analyses and predictions of spatially explicit patterns and processes in ecology most often rely on climate data interpolated from standardized weather stations. This interpolated climate data represents long-term average thermal conditions at coarse spatial resolutions only. Hence, many climate-forcing factors that operate at fine spatiotemporal resolutions are overlooked. This is particularly important in relation to effects of observation height (e.g. vegetation, snow and soil characteristics) and in habitats varying in their exposure to radiation, moisture and wind (e.g. topography, radiative forcing or cold-air pooling). Since organisms living close to the ground relate more strongly to these microclimatic conditions than to free-air temperatures, microclimatic ground and near-surface data are needed to provide realistic forecasts of the fate of such organisms under anthropogenic climate change, as well as of the functioning of the ecosystems they live in. To fill this critical gap, we highlight a call for temperature time series submissions to SoilTemp, a geospatial database initiative compiling soil and near-surface temperature data from all over the world. Currently, this database contains time series from 7,538 temperature sensors from 51 countries across all key biomes. The database will pave the way toward an improved global understanding of microclimate and bridge the gap between the available climate data and the climate at fine spatiotemporal resolutions relevant to most organisms and ecosystem processes.

Standardized drought indices in ecological research: Why one size does not fit all

While we generally agree with Slette et al. (Global Change Biol, 2019), that ecologists 'should do better' when defining drought in ecological studies, we argue against the uncritical use of a standardized drought index (such as the Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI; Vicente-Serrano et al. J Climate, 23: 1696-1718, 2010), as a stand-alone criterium for quantifying and reporting drought conditions. Specifically, we raise the following issues: (a) standardization can lead to a misrepresentation of actual water supply, especially for moist climates; (b) standardized values are not directly comparable between different reference periods; and finally, (c) spatially coarsely resolved data sources are unlikely to represent site-level water supply. This article is a commentary on Slette et al., 25, 3193-3200; See also the response to this Letter to the Editor by Slette et al., 26, e1-e3.

Refining predictions of population decline at species' rear edges

According to broad-scale application of biogeographical theory, widespread retractions of species' rear edges should be seen in response to ongoing climate change. This prediction rests on the assumption that rear edge populations are "marginal" since they occur at the limit of the species' ecological tolerance and are expected to decline in performance as climate warming pushes them to extirpation. However, conflicts between observations and predictions are increasingly accumulating and little progress has been made in explaining this disparity. We argue that a revision of the concept of marginality is necessary, together with explicit testing of population decline, which is increasingly possible as data availability improves. Such action should be based on taking the population perspective across a species' rear edge, encompassing the ecological, geographical and genetic dimensions of marginality. Refining our understanding of rear edge populations is essential to advance our ability to monitor, predict and plan for the impacts of environmental change on species range dynamics.

Climate- and successional-related changes in functional composition of European forests are strongly driven by tree mortality

Intense droughts combined with increased temperatures are one of the major threats to forest persistence in the 21st century. Despite the direct impact of climate change on forest growth and shifts in species abundance, the effect of altered demography on changes in the composition of functional traits is not well known. We sought to (1) quantify the recent changes in functional composition of European forests; (2) identify the relative importance of climate change, mean climate and forest development for changes in functional composition; and (3) analyse the roles of tree mortality and growth underlying any functional changes in different forest types. We quantified changes in functional composition from the 1980s to the 2000s across Europe by two dimensions of functional trait variation: the first dimension was mainly related to changes in leaf mass per area and wood density (partially related to the trait differences between angiosperms and gymnosperms), and the second dimension was related to changes in maximum tree height. Our results indicate that climate change and mean climatic effects strongly interacted with forest development and it was not possible to completely disentangle their effects. Where recent climate change was not too extreme, the patterns of functional change generally followed the expected patterns under secondary succession (e.g. towards late-successional short-statured hardwoods in Mediterranean forests and taller gymnosperms in boreal forests) and latitudinal gradients (e.g. larger proportion of gymnosperm-like strategies at low water availability in forests formerly dominated by broad-leaved deciduous species). Recent climate change generally favoured the dominance of angiosperm-like related traits under increased temperature and intense droughts. Our results show functional composition changes over relatively short time scales in European forests. These changes are largely determined by tree mortality, which should be further investigated and modelled to adequately predict the impacts of climate change on forest function.

Contrasting growth forecasts across the geographical range of Scots pine due to altitudinal and latitudinal differences in climatic sensitivity

Ongoing changes in global climate are altering ecological conditions for many species. The consequences of such changes are typically most evident at the edge of a species' geographical distribution, where differences in growth or population dynamics may result in range expansions or contractions. Understanding population responses to different climatic drivers along wide latitudinal and altitudinal gradients is necessary in order to gain a better understanding of plant responses to ongoing increases in global temperature and drought severity. We selected Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) as a model species to explore growth responses to climatic variability (seasonal temperature and precipitation) over the last century through dendrochronological methods. We developed linear models based on age, climate and previous growth to forecast growth trends up to year 2100 using climatic predictions. Populations were located at the treeline across a latitudinal gradient covering the northern, central and southernmost populations and across an altitudinal gradient at the southern edge of the distribution (treeline, medium and lower elevations). Radial growth was maximal at medium altitude and treeline of the southernmost populations. Temperature was the main factor controlling growth variability along the gradients, although the timing and strength of climatic variables affecting growth shifted with latitude and altitude. Predictive models forecast a general increase in Scots pine growth at treeline across the latitudinal distribution, with southern populations increasing growth up to year 2050, when it stabilizes. The highest responsiveness appeared at central latitude, and moderate growth increase is projected at the northern limit. Contrastingly, the model forecasted growth declines at lowland-southern populations, suggesting an upslope range displacement over the coming decades. Our results give insight into the geographical responses of tree species to climate change and demonstrate the importance of incorporating biogeographical variability into predictive models for an accurate prediction of species dynamics as climate changes.

Structural overshoot of tree growth with climate variability and the global spectrum of drought-induced forest dieback

Ongoing climate change poses significant threats to plant function and distribution. Increased temperatures and altered precipitation regimes amplify drought frequency and intensity, elevating plant stress and mortality. Large-scale forest mortality events will have far-reaching impacts on carbon and hydrological cycling, biodiversity, and ecosystem services. However, biogeographical theory and global vegetation models poorly represent recent forest die-off patterns. Furthermore, as trees are sessile and long-lived, their responses to climate extremes are substantially dependent on historical factors. We show that periods of favourable climatic and management conditions that facilitate abundant tree growth can lead to structural overshoot of aboveground tree biomass due to a subsequent temporal mismatch between water demand and availability. When environmental favourability declines, increases in water and temperature stress that are protracted, rapid, or both, drive a gradient of tree structural responses that can modify forest self-thinning relationships. Responses ranging from premature leaf senescence and partial canopy dieback to whole-tree mortality reduce canopy leaf area during the stress period and for a lagged recovery window thereafter. Such temporal mismatches of water requirements from availability can occur at local to regional scales throughout a species geographical range. As climate change projections predict large future fluctuations in both wet and dry conditions, we expect forests to become increasingly structurally mismatched to water availability and thus overbuilt during more stressful episodes. By accounting for the historical context of biomass development, our approach can explain previously problematic aspects of large-scale forest mortality, such as why it can occur throughout the range of a species and yet still be locally highly variable, and why some events seem readily attributable to an ongoing drought while others do not. This refined understanding can facilitate better projections of structural overshoot responses, enabling improved prediction of changes in forest distribution and function from regional to global scales.

Tree mortality across biomes is promoted by drought intensity, lower wood density and higher specific leaf area

Drought events are increasing globally, and reports of consequent forest mortality are widespread. However, due to a lack of a quantitative global synthesis, it is still not clear whether drought-induced mortality rates differ among global biomes and whether functional traits influence the risk of drought-induced mortality. To address these uncertainties, we performed a global meta-analysis of 58 studies of drought-induced forest mortality. Mortality rates were modelled as a function of drought, temperature, biomes, phylogenetic and functional groups and functional traits. We identified a consistent global-scale response, where mortality increased with drought severity [log mortality (trees trees^-1  year^-1 ) increased 0.46 (95% CI = 0.2-0.7) with one SPEI unit drought intensity]. We found no significant differences in the magnitude of the response depending on forest biomes or between angiosperms and gymnosperms or evergreen and deciduous tree species. Functional traits explained some of the variation in drought responses between species (i.e. increased from 30 to 37% when wood density and specific leaf area were included). Tree species with denser wood and lower specific leaf area showed lower mortality responses. Our results illustrate the value of functional traits for understanding patterns of drought-induced tree mortality and suggest that mortality could become increasingly widespread in the future.

Highest drought sensitivity and lowest resistance to growth suppression are found in the range core of the tree Fagus sylvatica L. not the equatorial range edge

Biogeographical and ecological theory suggests that species distributions should be driven to higher altitudes and latitudes as global temperatures rise. Such changes occur as growth improves at the poleward edge of a species distribution and declines at the range edge in the opposite or equatorial direction, mirrored by changes in the establishment of new individuals. A substantial body of evidence demonstrates that such processes are underway for a wide variety of species. Case studies from populations at the equatorial range edge of a variety of woody species have led us to understand that widespread growth decline and distributional shifts are underway. However, in apparent contrast, other studies report high productivity and reproduction in some range edge populations. We sought to assess temporal trends in the growth of the widespread European beech tree (Fagus sylvatica) across its latitudinal range. We explored the stability of populations to major drought events and the implications for predicted widespread growth decline at its equatorial range edge. In contrast to expectations, we found greatest sensitivity and low resistance to drought in the core of the species range, whilst dry range edge populations showed particularly high resistance to drought and little evidence of drought-linked growth decline. We hypothesize that this high range edge resistance to drought is driven primarily by local environmental factors that allow relict populations to persist despite regionally unfavourable climate. The persistence of such populations demonstrates that range-edge decline is not ubiquitous and is likely to be driven by declining population density at the landscape scale rather than sudden and widespread range retraction.

Role of geographical provenance in the response of silver fir seedlings to experimental warming and drought

Changes in climate can alter the distribution and population dynamics of tree species by altering their recruitment patterns, especially at range edges. However, geographical patterns of genetic diversity could buffer the negative consequences of changing climate at rear range edges where populations might also harbour individuals with drought-adapted genotypes. Silver fir (Abies alba Mill.) reaches its south-western distribution limit in the Spanish Pyrenees, where recent climatic dieback events have disproportionately affected westernmost populations. We hypothesized that silver fir populations from the eastern Pyrenees are less vulnerable to the expected changing climate due to the inclusion of drought-resistant genotypes. We performed an experiment under strictly controlled conditions simulating projected warming and drought compared with current conditions and analysed physiology, growth and survival of silver fir seedlings collected from eastern and western Pyrenean populations. Genetic analyses separated eastern and western provenances in two different lineages. Climate treatments affected seedling morphology and survival of both lineages in an overall similar way: elevated drought diminished survival and induced a higher biomass allocation to roots. Increased temperature and drought provoked more negative stem water potentials and increased δ¹³C ratios in leaves. Warming reduced nitrogen concentration and increased soluble sugar content in leaves, whereas drought increased nitrogen concentration. Lineage affected these physiological parameters, with western seedlings being more sensitive to warming and drought increase in terms of δ¹³C, nitrogen and content of soluble sugars. Our results demonstrate that, in A. alba, differences in the physiological response of this species to drought are also associated with differences in biogeographical history.

Climatic Stress during Stand Development Alters the Sign and Magnitude of Age-Related Growth Responses in a Subtropical Mountain Pine

The modification of typical age-related growth by environmental changes is poorly understood, In part because there is a lack of consensus at individual tree level regarding age-dependent growth responses to climate warming as stands develop. To increase our current understanding about how multiple drivers of environmental change can modify growth responses as trees age we used tree ring data of a mountain subtropical pine species along an altitudinal gradient covering more than 2,200 m of altitude. We applied mixed-linear models to determine how absolute and relative age-dependent growth varies depending on stand development; and to quantify the relative importance of tree age and climate on individual tree growth responses. Tree age was the most important factor for tree growth in models parameterised using data from all forest developmental stages. Contrastingly, the relationship found between tree age and growth became non-significant in models parameterised using data corresponding to mature stages. These results suggest that although absolute tree growth can continuously increase along tree size when trees reach maturity age had no effect on growth. Tree growth was strongly reduced under increased annual temperature, leading to more constant age-related growth responses. Furthermore, young trees were the most sensitive to reductions in relative growth rates, but absolute growth was strongly reduced under increased temperature in old trees. Our results help to reconcile previous contrasting findings of age-related growth responses at the individual tree level, suggesting that the sign and magnitude of age-related growth responses vary with stand development. The different responses found to climate for absolute and relative growth rates suggest that young trees are particularly vulnerable under warming climate, but reduced absolute growth in old trees could alter the species' potential as a carbon sink in the future.

Asymmetric changes of growth and reproductive investment herald altitudinal and latitudinal range shifts of two woody species

Ongoing changes in global climate are altering ecological conditions for many species. The consequences of such changes are typically most evident at the edge of the geographical distribution of a species, where range expansions or contractions may occur. Current demographical status at geographical range limits can help us to predict population trends and their implications for the future distribution of the species. Thus, understanding the comparability of demographical patterns occurring along both altitudinal and latitudinal gradients would be highly informative. In this study, we analyse the differences in the demography of two woody species through altitudinal gradients at their southernmost distribution limit and the consistency of demographical patterns at the treeline across a latitudinal gradient covering the complete distribution range. We focus on Pinus sylvestris and Juniperus communis, assessing their demographical structure (density, age and mortality rate), growth, reproduction investment and damage from herbivory on 53 populations covering the upper, central and lower altitudes as well as the treeline at central latitude and northernmost and southernmost latitudinal distribution limits. For both species, populations at the lowermost altitude presented older age structure, higher mortality, decreased growth and lower reproduction when compared to the upper limit, indicating higher fitness at the treeline. This trend at the treeline was generally maintained through the latitudinal gradient, but with a decreased growth at the northern edge for both species and lower reproduction for P. sylvestris. However, altitudinal and latitudinal transects are not directly comparable as factors other than climate, including herbivore pressure or human management, must be taken into account if we are to understand how to infer latitudinal processes from altitudinal data.

Strong topographic sheltering effects lead to spatially complex treeline advance and increased forest density in a subtropical mountain region

Altitudinal treelines are typically temperature limited such that increasing temperatures linked to global climate change are causing upslope shifts of treelines worldwide. While such elevational increases are readily predicted based on shifting isotherms, at the regional level the realized response is often much more complex, with topography and local environmental conditions playing an important modifying role. Here, we used repeated aerial photographs in combination with forest inventory data to investigate changes in treeline position in the Central Mountain Range of Taiwan over the last 60 years. A highly spatially variable upslope advance of treeline was identified in which topography is a major driver of both treeline form and advance. The changes in treeline position that we observed occurred alongside substantial increases in forest density, and lead to a large increase in overall forest area. These changes will have a significant impact on carbon stocking in the high altitude zone, while the concomitant decrease in alpine grassland area is likely to have negative implications for alpine species. The complex and spatially variable changes that we report highlight the necessity for considering local factors such as topography when attempting to predict species distributional responses to warming climate.

A seascape genetic analysis reveals strong biogeographical structuring driven by contrasting processes in the polyploid saltmarsh species Puccinellia maritima and Triglochin maritima

Little is known about the processes shaping population structure in saltmarshes. It is expected that the sea should act as a powerful agent of dispersal. Yet, in contrast, import of external propagules into a saltmarsh is thought to be small. To determine the level of connectivity between saltmarsh ecosystems at a macro-geographical scale, we characterized and compared the population structure of two polyploid saltmarsh species, Puccinellia maritima and Triglochin maritima based on a seascape genetics approach. A discriminant analysis of principal components highlighted a genetic structure for both species arranged according to a regional pattern. Subsequent analysis based on isolation-by-distance and isolation-by-resistance frameworks indicated a strong role of coastal sediment transport processes in delimiting regional structure in P. maritima, while additional overland propagule dispersal was indicated for T. maritima. The identification and comparison of regional genetic structure and likely determining factors presented here allows us to understand the biogeographical units along the UK coast, between which barriers to connectivity occur not only at the species level but at the ecosystem scale. This information is valuable in plant conservation and community ecology and in the management and restoration of saltmarsh ecosystems.

Development and cross-species amplification of microsatellite loci for Puccinellia maritima, an important engineer saltmarsh species

The grass Puccinellia maritima is an important saltmarsh ecosystem engineer exhibiting wide morphological variation, which is partially genetically determined. Nevertheless, nothing is known about its population genetics or how neutral genetic variation is distributed throughout its geographical range. Here, we describe 12 polymorphic microsatellites pooled into two multiplexes for this octoploid species. Assessment of 24 samples from three populations revealed 4 to 29 alleles per locus, with variation in allele presence and abundance between populations. The transferability of these markers is reported based on their cross-amplification in six other Puccinellia species of different ploidy levels.

Impacts of predicted climate change on recruitment at the geographical limits of Scots pine

Ongoing changes in global climate are having a significant impact on the distribution of plant species, with effects particularly evident at range limits. We assessed the capacity of Pinus sylvestris L. populations at northernmost and southernmost limits of the distribution to cope with projected changes in climate. We investigated responses including seed germination and early seedling growth and survival, using seeds from northernmost (Kevo, Finland) and southernmost (Granada, Spain) populations. Seeds were grown under current climate conditions in each area and under temperatures increased by 5 °C, with changes in precipitation of +30% or -30% with reference to current values at northern and southern limits, respectively, in a fully factorial controlled-conditions experimental design. Increased temperatures reduced germination time and enhanced biomass gain at both range edges but reduced survival at the southern range edge. Higher precipitation also increased survival and biomass but only under a southern climate. Seeds from the southern origin emerged faster, produced bigger seedlings, allocated higher biomass to roots, and survived better than northern ones. These results indicate that recruitment will be reduced at the southernmost range of the species, whereas it will be enhanced at the northern limit, and that the southern seed sources are better adapted to survive under drier conditions. However, future climate will impose a trade-off between seedling growth and survival probabilities. At the southern range edge, higher growth may render individuals more susceptible to mortality where greater aboveground biomass results in greater water loss through evapotranspiration.

Evidence of current impact of climate change on life: a walk from genes to the biosphere

We review the evidence of how organisms and populations are currently responding to climate change through phenotypic plasticity, genotypic evolution, changes in distribution and, in some cases, local extinction. Organisms alter their gene expression and metabolism to increase the concentrations of several antistress compounds and to change their physiology, phenology, growth and reproduction in response to climate change. Rapid adaptation and microevolution occur at the population level. Together with these phenotypic and genotypic adaptations, the movement of organisms and the turnover of populations can lead to migration toward habitats with better conditions unless hindered by barriers. Both migration and local extinction of populations have occurred. However, many unknowns for all these processes remain. The roles of phenotypic plasticity and genotypic evolution and their possible trade-offs and links with population structure warrant further research. The application of omic techniques to ecological studies will greatly favor this research. It remains poorly understood how climate change will result in asymmetrical responses of species and how it will interact with other increasing global impacts, such as N eutrophication, changes in environmental N : P ratios and species invasion, among many others. The biogeochemical and biophysical feedbacks on climate of all these changes in vegetation are also poorly understood. We here review the evidence of responses to climate change and discuss the perspectives for increasing our knowledge of the interactions between climate change and life.

Species-genetic diversity correlations in habitat fragmentation can be biased by small sample sizes

Predicted parallel impacts of habitat fragmentation on genes and species lie at the core of conservation biology, yet tests of this rule are rare. In a recent article in Ecology Letters, Struebig et al. (2011) report that declining genetic diversity accompanies declining species diversity in tropical forest fragments. However, this study estimates diversity in many populations through extrapolation from very small sample sizes. Using the data of this recent work, we show that results estimated from the smallest sample sizes drive the species-genetic diversity correlation (SGDC), owing to a false-positive association between habitat fragmentation and loss of genetic diversity. Small sample sizes are a persistent problem in habitat fragmentation studies, the results of which often do not fit simple theoretical models. It is essential, therefore, that data assessing the proposed SGDC are sufficient in order that conclusions be robust.

Summer season and long-term drought increase the richness of bacteria and fungi in the foliar phyllosphere of Quercus ilex in a mixed Mediterranean forest

We explored the changes in richness, diversity and evenness of epiphytic (on the leaf surface) and endophytic (within leaf tissues) bacteria and fungi in the foliar phyllosphere of Quercus ilex, the dominant tree species of Mediterranean forests. Bacteria and fungi were assessed during ontogenic development of the leaves, from the wet spring to the dry summer season in control plots and in plots subjected to drought conditions mimicking those projected for future decades. Our aim was to monitor succession in microbiota during the colonisation of plant leaves and its response to climate change. Ontogeny and seasonality exerted a strong influence on richness and diversity of the microbial phyllosphere community, which decreased in summer in the whole leaf and increased in summer in the epiphytic phyllosphere. Drought precluded the decrease in whole leaf phyllosphere diversity and increased the rise in the epiphytic phyllosphere. Both whole leaf bacterial and fungal richness decreased with the decrease in physiological activity and productivity of the summer season in control trees. As expected, the richness of epiphytic bacteria and fungi increased in summer after increasing time of colonisation. Under summer dry conditions, there was a positive relationship between TRF (terminal restriction fragments) richness and drought, both for whole leaf and epiphytic phyllosphere, and especially for fungal communities. These results demonstrate that changes in climate are likely to significantly alter microbial abundance and composition of the phyllosphere. Given the diverse functions and large number of phyllospheric microbes, the potential functional implications of such community shifts warrant exploration.

Wide variation in spatial genetic structure between natural populations of the European beech (Fagus sylvatica) and its implications for SGS comparability

Identification and quantification of spatial genetic structure (SGS) within populations remains a central element of understanding population structure at the local scale. Understanding such structure can inform on aspects of the species' biology, such as establishment patterns and gene dispersal distance, in addition to sampling design for genetic resource management and conservation. However, recent work has identified that variation in factors such as sampling methodology, population characteristics and marker system can all lead to significant variation in SGS estimates. Consequently, the extent to which estimates of SGS can be relied on to inform on the biology of a species or differentiate between experimental treatments is open to doubt. Following on from a recent report of unusually extensive SGS when assessed using amplified fragment length polymorphisms in the tree Fagus sylvatica, we explored whether this marker system led to similarly high estimates of SGS extent in other apparently similar populations of this species. In the three populations assessed, SGS extent was even stronger than this previously reported maximum, extending up to 360 m, an increase in up to 800% in comparison with the generally accepted maximum of 30-40 m based on the literature. Within this species, wide variation in SGS estimates exists, whether quantified as SGS intensity, extent or the Sp parameter. Consequently, we argue that greater standardization should be applied in sample design and SGS estimation and highlight five steps that can be taken to maximize the comparability between SGS estimates.

Taking a tree's perspective on forest fragmentation genetics

Despite longstanding research, how anthropogenic disturbance affects the genetics of tree populations remains poorly understood. Although empirical evidence often conflicts with theoretical expectations, little progress has been made in refining experimental design or in reformulating theoretical hypotheses. Such progress is, however, essential to understand how forest tree species can tolerate anthropogenic disturbance. Further advances in forest fragmentation genetics research will require that processes driving reproduction and recruitment in fragmented populations are assessed from a tree's perspective instead of experimental convenience, using a multidisciplinary approach to explain the spatiotemporal dynamics of gene dispersal. In this opinion article we aim to inspire a new perspective in forest fragmentation genetics research.

Monitoring and managing responses to climate change at the retreating range edge of forest trees

Rising temperatures and increasing drought severity linked to global climate change are negatively impacting forest growth and function at the equatorial range edge of species distributions. Rapid dieback and range retractions are predicted to occur in many areas as temperatures continue to rise. Despite widespread negative impacts at the ecosystem level, equatorial range edges are not well studied, and their responses to climate change are poorly understood. Effective monitoring of tree responses to climate in these regions is of critical importance in order to predict and manage threats to populations. Remote sensing of impacts on forests can be combined with ground-based assessment of environmental and ecological changes to identify populations most at risk. Modelling may be useful as a 'first-filter' to identify populations of concern but, together with many remote sensing methods, often lacks adequate resolution for application at the range edge. A multidisciplinary approach, combining remote observation with targeted ground-based monitoring of local susceptible and resistant populations, is therefore required. Once at-risk regions have been identified, management can be adapted to reduce immediate risks in priority populations, and promote long-term adaptation to change. However, management to protect forest ecosystem function may be preferable where the maintenance of historical species assemblages is no longer viable.

Microspatial population genetic structure of the Mediterranean shrub Fumana thymifolia

Fumana thymifolia (Cistaceae) is an insect-pollinated, gravity-dispersed evergreen shrub, which is a common component of fire-prone Mediterranean shrubland ecosystems. Despite the availability of basic knowledge on its ecology, little is known of its breeding system and no information is available on its population genetic structure. We explored the within-population genetic structure of this species using amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) molecular markers and related this to predictions based on its breeding system, pollen and seed dispersal. Existing information on the reproductive ecology of F. thymifolia was supplemented by artificial pollination experiments. We determined that self-fertilisation can occur in F. thymifolia but results in reduced fruit set. Significant genetic structuring was detected within the population, a likely consequence of localised seed dispersal in combination with a mixed mating system. In a study site covering approximately 0.5 ha, amova revealed that approximately 9% of genetic variability was distributed among population subsamples. Significant spatial genetic structure was detected, with kinship coefficients being significantly elevated above the null expectation in the first six distance classes (maximum 5 m), and a value of Sp of up to 0.0342, comparable with species having similar ecological characteristics. Weak isolation by distance at the plot scale was detected, suggesting that insect-mediated pollen flow is non-random, despite being more extensive than seed dispersal. Fumana thymifolia provides a promising model for the investigation of both short- and long-term population dynamics in relation to fire frequency within this plant community.

Environmental change and the option value of genetic diversity

Rapid anthropogenic environmental change is altering selection pressures on natural plant populations. However, it is difficult to predict easily the novel selection pressures to which populations will be exposed. There is heavy reliance on plant genetic diversity for future crop security in agriculture and industry, but the implications of genetic diversity for natural populations receives less attention. Here, we examine the links between the genetic diversity of natural populations and aspects of plant performance and fitness. We argue that accumulating evidence demonstrates the future benefit or 'option value' of genetic diversity within natural populations when subject to anthropogenic environmental changes. Consequently, the loss of that diversity will hinder their ability to adapt to changing environments and is, therefore, of serious concern.

Extensive spatial genetic structure revealed by AFLP but not SSR molecular markers in the wind-pollinated tree, Fagus sylvatica

Studies of fine-scale spatial genetic structure (SGS) in wind-pollinated trees have shown that SGS is generally weak and extends over relatively short distances (less than 30-40 m) from individual trees. However, recent simulations have shown that detection of SGS is heavily dependent on both the choice of molecular markers and the strategy used to sample the studied population. Published studies may not always have used sufficient markers and/or individuals for the accurate estimation of SGS. To assess the extent of SGS within a population of the wind-pollinated tree Fagus sylvatica, we genotyped 200 trees at six microsatellite or simple sequence repeat (SSR) loci and 250 amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLP) and conducted spatial analyses of pairwise kinship coefficients. We re-sampled our data set over individuals and over loci to determine the effect of reducing the sample size and number of loci used for SGS estimation. We found that SGS estimated from AFLP markers extended nearly four times further than has been estimated before using other molecular markers in this species, indicating a persistent effect of restricted gene flow at small spatial scales. However, our SSR-based estimate was in agreement with other published studies. Spatial genetic structure in F. sylvatica and similar wind-pollinated trees may therefore be substantially larger than has been estimated previously. Although 100-150 AFLP loci and 150-200 individuals appear sufficient for adequately estimating SGS in our analysis, 150-200 individuals and six SSR loci may still be too few to provide a good estimation of SGS in this species.

Natural selection and climate change: temperature-linked spatial and temporal trends in gene frequency in Fagus sylvatica

Rapid increases in global temperature are likely to impose strong directional selection on many plant populations, which must therefore adapt if they are to survive. Within populations, microgeographic genetic differentiation of individuals with respect to climate suggests that some populations may adapt to changing temperatures in the short-term through rapid changes in gene frequency. We used a genome scan to identify temperature-related adaptive differentiation of individuals of the tree species Fagus sylvatica. By combining molecular marker and dendrochronological data we assessed spatial and temporal variation in gene frequency at the locus identified as being under selection. We show that gene frequency at this locus varies predictably with temperature. The probability of the presence of the dominant marker allele shows a declining trend over the latter half of the 20th century, in parallel with rising temperatures in the region. Our results show that F. sylvatica populations may show some capacity for an in situ adaptive response to climate change. However as reported ongoing distributional changes demonstrate, this response is not enough to allow all populations of this species to persist in all of their current locations.

Genetic effects of chronic habitat fragmentation in a wind-pollinated tree

Habitat fragmentation poses a serious threat to plants through genetic changes associated with increased isolation and reduced population size. However, the longevity of trees, combined with effective seed or pollen dispersal, can enhance their resistance to these effects. The European beech (Fagus sylvatica) dominates forest over large regions of Europe. We demonstrate that habitat fragmentation in this species has led to genetic bottlenecks and the disruption of the species' breeding system, leading to significantly elevated levels of inbreeding, population divergence, and reduced genetic diversity within populations. These results show that, in contrast with the findings of previous studies, forest fragmentation has a negative genetic impact, even in this widespread, wind-pollinated tree. The identification of significant effects of forest fragmentation in beech demonstrates that trees are not at reduced risk from environmental change. This should be accounted for in the management of remaining natural and seminatural forest throughout the world.

Cirsium species show disparity in patterns of genetic variation at their range-edge, despite similar patterns of reproduction and isolation

•  Genetic variation was assessed across the UK geographical range of Cirsium acaule and Cirsium heterophyllum. A decline in genetic diversity and increase in population divergence approaching the range edge of these species was predicted based on parallel declines in population density and seed production reported seperately. Patterns were compared with UK populations of the widespread Cirsium arvense. •  Populations were sampled along a latitudinal transect in the UK and genetic variation assessed using microsatellite markers. •  Cirsium acaule shows strong isolation by distance, a significant decline in diversity and an increase in divergence among range-edge populations. Geographical structure is also evident in C. arvense, whereas no such patterns are seen in C. heterophyllum. •  There is a major disparity between patterns of genetic variation in C. acaule and C. heterophyllum despite very similar patterns in seed production and population isolation in these species. This suggests it may be misleading to make assumptions about the geographical structure of genetic variation within species based solely on the present-day reproduction and distribution of populations.

Seed production and population density decline approaching the range-edge of Cirsium species

•  Patterns in population density and abundance, community composition, seed production and morphological traits were assessed across the UK geographical range of Cirsium acaule, Cirsium heterophyllum and Cirsium arvense based on the expectation that environmental favourability declines from core to periphery of a species range. •  These traits were measured in natural populations along a latitudinal transect in the UK and using botanical survey data. •  A significant decline in population density and seed production occurs approaching the range edges of C. acaule and C. heterophyllum. There is no latitudinal trend in these traits in the widespread C. arvense and no latitudinal pattern to variation in morphological traits or community composition in any of these species. •  Although seed production is reduced at the range edge of C. acaule and C. heterophyllum, peripheral populations of these species may persist through clonal reproduction. Low seed production may interact with reduced availability of favourable habitat to limit range expansion in these species.