HyDiaD: A hybrid species distribution model combining dispersal, multi-habitat suitability, and population dynamics for diadromous species under climate change scenarios

Fitting individual-based models of spatial population dynamics to long-term monitoring data

Generating spatial predictions of species distribution is a central task for research and policy. Currently, correlative species distribution models (cSDMs) are among the most widely used tools for this purpose. However, a fundamental assumption of cSDMs, that species distributions are in equilibrium with their environment, is rarely fulfilled in real data and limits the applicability of cSDMs for dynamic projections. Process-based, dynamic SDMs (dSDMs) promise to overcome these limitations as they explicitly represent transient dynamics and enhance spatiotemporal transferability. Software tools for implementing dSDMs are becoming increasingly available, but their parameter estimation can be complex. Here, we test the feasibility of calibrating and validating a dSDM using long-term monitoring data of Swiss red kites (Milvus milvus). This population has shown strong increases in abundance and a progressive range expansion over the last decades, indicating a nonequilibrium situation. We construct an individual-based model using the RangeShiftR modeling platform and use Bayesian inference for model calibration. This allows the integration of heterogeneous data sources, such as parameter estimates from published literature and observational data from monitoring schemes, with a coherent assessment of parameter uncertainty. Our monitoring data encompass counts of breeding pairs at 267 sites across Switzerland over 22 years. We validate our model using a spatial-block cross-validation scheme and assess predictive performance with a rank-correlation coefficient. Our model showed very good predictive accuracy of spatial projections and represented well the observed population dynamics over the last two decades. Results suggest that reproductive success was a key factor driving the observed range expansion. According to our model, the Swiss red kite population fills large parts of its current range but has potential for further increases in density. We demonstrate the practicality of data integration and validation for dSDMs using RangeShiftR. This approach can improve predictive performance compared to cSDMs. The workflow presented here can be adopted for any population for which some prior knowledge on demographic and dispersal parameters as well as spatiotemporal observations of abundance or presence/absence are available. The fitted model provides improved quantitative insights into the ecology of a species, which can greatly aid conservation and management efforts.

Evolution of the ecological niche behind the largest disjunct freshwater fish distribution in the world

Ecological processes that are behind distributions of species that inhabit isolated localities, complex disjunct distributions, remain poorly understood. Traditionally, vicariance and dispersion have been proposed as explanatory mechanisms that drive such distributions. However, to date, our understanding of the ecological processes driving evolution of ecological niches associated with disjunct distributions remains rudimentary. Here, we propose a framework to deconstruct drivers of such distribution using World's most widespread freshwater fish Galaxias maculatus as a model and integrating marine and freshwater environments where its life cycle may occur. Specifically, we assessed ecological and historical factors (Gondwanan vicariance, marine dispersion) and potential dispersion (niche-tracking) that explain its distribution in the Southern Hemisphere. Estimated distribution was consistent with previously reported distribution and mainly driven by temperature and topography in freshwater environments and by primary productivity and nitrate in marine environments. Niche dynamics of G. maculatus provided evidence of synergy between vicariance and marine dispersion as explanatory mechanisms of its disjunct distribution, suggesting that its ecological niche was conserved since approximately 30 Ma ago. This integrated assessment of ecological niche in marine and freshwater environments serves as a generic framework that may be applied to understand processes underpinning complex distributions of diadromous species.