Selective mortality and the anthropometric status of children in low- and middle-income countries

An index of access to essential infrastructure to identify where physical distancing is impossible

To identify areas at highest risk of infectious disease transmission in Africa, we develop a physical distancing index (PDI) based on the share of households without access to private toilets, water, space, transportation, and communication technology and weight it with population density. Our results highlight that in addition to improving health systems, countries across Africa, especially in the western part of Africa, need to address the lack of essential domestic infrastructure. Missing infrastructure prevents societies from limiting the spread of communicable diseases by undermining the effectiveness of governmental regulations on physical distancing. We also provide high-resolution risk maps that show which regions are most limited in protecting themselves. We find considerable spatial heterogeneity of the PDI within countries and show that it is highly correlated with detected COVID-19 cases. Governments could pay specific attention to these areas to target limited resources more precisely to prevent disease transmission.

Lack of private infrastructure remains a major challenge potentially hampering a societies’ ability to contain the transmission of communicable diseases. Areas at high risk in Africa are identified based on access to essential basic infrastructure.

Trends and geographic variability in gender inequalities in child mortality and stunting in India, 2006-2016

Gender disparities in child undernutrition and mortality in India have been a topic of interest for a long time, but little is known on trends or geographic variability in recent periods. We examined the degree to which historic patterns in gender disparities in child undernutrition and mortality in India have persisted given recent progress in health and nutrition. Using two nationally representative datasets from India between 2006 and 2016, we estimated mortality rates and stunting by gender and by birth order among children under 5 years old. We then tested for differences between boys and girls within each survey round for both national and state levels using bootstrapped standard errors, controlling for cluster and sampling weights. We found striking progress in child mortality and stunting in India between 2006 and 2016 for both boys and girls. Boys were more likely to die than girls during the first year of life. Girls had a higher risk of mortality between age 1 and 5 years than boys in 2006, but the improvements in survival eliminated this gender gap in 2016. For stunting, we found no gender difference in 2006, but girls had higher height‐for‐age Z‐scores (HAZ) and lower stunting than boys in 2016. Trends in gender gaps in mortality and stunting vary substantially by birth order and between states. Our findings indicate that improvements in mortality and nutritional status among girls have started to close gender disparities. Policy efforts to close gaps must stay the course in states that have made progress and be accelerated in states where disparities are still prominent.

Modelling children's anthropometric status using Bayesian distributional regression merging socio-economic and remote sensed data from South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa

A history of insufficient nutritional intake is reflected by low anthropometric measures and can lead to growth failures, limited mental development, poor health outcomes and a higher risk of dying. Children below five years are among those most vulnerable and, while improvements in the share of children affected by insufficient nutritional intake has been observed, both sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia have a disproportionately high share of growth failures and large disparities at national and sub-national levels. In this study, we use a Bayesian distributional regression approach to develop models for the standard anthropometric measures, stunting and wasting. This approach allows us to model both the mean and the standard deviation of the underlying response distribution. Accordingly, the whole distribution of the anthropometric measures can be evaluated. This is of particular importance, considering the fact that (severe) growth failures of children are defined having a z-score below -2 (-3), emphasising the need to extend the analysis beyond the conditional mean. In addition, we merge individual data taken from the Demographic and Health Surveys with remote sensed data for a large sample of 38 countries located in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia for the period 1990-2016, in order to combine individual and household specific characteristics with geophysical and environmental characteristics, and to allow for a comparison over time. Our results show besides gender differences across space, and strong non-linear effects of included socio-economic characteristics, in particular for maternal education and the wealth of the household that, surprisingly, in the presence of socio-economic characteristics, remote sensed data does not contribute to variations in growth failures, and including a pure spatial effect excluding remote sensed data leads to even better results. Further, while all regions showed improvements towards the target of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), our analysis identifies hotspots of growth failures at sub-national levels within India, Nigeria, Niger, and Madagascar, emphasising the need to accelerate progress to reach the target set by the SDGs.

Refugee camps - A lasting legacy? Evidence on long-term health impact

This paper examines the long-term impact of refugee camps on the health of local residents in Tanzania. Taking height-for-age z-score (HAZ) as a proxy for health, the paper exploits the fact that different birth cohorts were exposed to different stages of the camps' lifecycle. Temporal variation through birth cohorts is combined with geographic variation in a difference-in-difference estimation approach. First, the paper examines the generation that were children at the opening of the camps and are now adults (as of 2012). It finds a negative and localised health effect that has persisted into adulthood. The result is comparable to a 2.9%-5.9% reduction in adult hourly earnings. Second, this paper compares the subsequent generation that was born once the camps were already in operation, and those born after camps closed. It finds no observable difference in the HAZ score between those born during camps operation and in the post-camp period.