Bayesian methods for early detection of changes in childhood cancer incidence: Trends for acute lymphoblastic leukaemia are consistent with an infectious aetiology

Childhood leukaemia incidence and trends in a Middle Eastern country during 1980-2014: a population-based study

BACKGROUND

This retrospective cohort study examines the trends in childhood leukaemia age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) (per million person-years) using cases which were diagnosed at age 0-19 years from 1980 to 2014 and recorded in the Kuwait Cancer Control Center (KCCC) registry.

METHODS

Childhood leukaemia age-specific incidence rates overall and by sub-cohorts defined by age (0-4, 5-9, 10-14, and 15-19 years), sex (male, female) and nationality (Kuwaiti, non-Kuwaiti) were computed and age-standardized. Joinpoint regression models were used to evaluate trends in childhood leukaemia ASIRs. Average annual percent change (AAPC) and its 95% confidence interval (CI) were used to interpret the observed trends.

RESULTS

During the study period, 1077 childhood leukaemia cases of 32.3 million person-years were diagnosed. From 1980 to 2014, the average annual childhood leukaemia ASIR was 53.1 (95% CI 20.9, 85.2). Overall childhood leukaemia ASIRs significantly decreased on average by 6.8% per year (AAPC =  -6.8; 95% CI -12.1, -1.1; p = 0.02) from 1980 to 1993, but a marginally significant increase in ASIRs from 1993 to 2014 was recorded (AAPC = 2.5; 95% CI -0.5, 5.5; p = 0.10). During the entire period, childhood leukaemia ASIRs trends significantly (p < 0.05) increased among 6 of 16 sub-cohorts, which was more pronounced among females and 10-14-year-old children.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, ASIRs significantly increased from 1993 to 2014, which specifically seems to be driven by an increase in ASIRs among females and 10-14 -year-old children. These increasing trends underscore the potential involvement of a range of exposures. Future studies on unravelling such factors may help develop preventive measures to minimize childhood leukaemia risk in this and similar settings in the region.

Spatial and temporal variations of childhood cancers: Literature review and contribution of the French national registry

BACKGROUND

Significant increases in childhood cancer incidence since the 1970s have been consistently reported worldwide, but the persistence of the increase on recent periods is discussed. No conclusion can be drawn concerning the spatial variations of childhood cancer, either. This study is an in-depth investigation of the spatial and temporal variations of childhood cancer in France. An extensive review of all the studies published since 2000 on those issues is provided.

METHODS

The study included 25 877 cases of childhood cancer registered nationwide over 2000-2014. The spatial heterogeneity (overdispersion, autocorrelation, overall heterogeneity) was tested, on two geographic scales, and two spatial scan methods were used to detect clusters of cases. The annual average percent change (AAPC) in incidence rate was estimated with Poisson regression models, and joinpoint analyses were considered.

RESULTS

Glioma and non-Hodgkin lymphoma cases exhibited some spatial heterogeneity and two large clusters were detected. Overall, the incidence rate of childhood cancer was stable over 2000-2014 (AAPC = -0.1% [-0.3%; 0.2%]). A log-linear positive trend was significantly evidenced for gliomas other than pilocytic astrocytomas (AAPC = 1.8% [0.9%; 2.7%]), with some suggestion of a leveling-off at the end of the period, while Burkitt lymphoma and germ cell tumor incidence rates decreased (AAPC = -2.2% [-3.8%; -0.5%] and AAPC = -1.9% [-3.4%; -0.3%], respectively). No spatial heterogeneity or significant time variation was evidenced for other cancers.

CONCLUSION

Several types of childhood cancer displayed some spatial heterogeneity and two large clusters were detected, the origins of which are to be investigated and might include differences in case ascertainment. Overall, the results do not support a sustained increase in incidence rates of childhood cancer in recent years.

Incidence and survival time trends for Spanish children and adolescents with leukaemia from 1983 to 2007

OBJECTIVE

We have analysed incidence and survival trends of children and adolescents with leukaemia registered in Spanish population-based cancer registries during the period 1983-2007.

METHODS

Childhood and adolescent leukaemia cases were drawn from the 11 Spanish population-based cancer registries. For survival, registries with data for the period 1991-2005 and follow-up until 31-12-2010 were included. Overall incidence trends were evaluated using joinpoint analysis. Observed survival rates were estimated using Kaplan-Meier, and trends were tested using the log-rank test.

RESULTS

Based on 2606 cases (2274 children and 332 adolescents), the overall age-adjusted incidence rate (ASRw) of leukaemia was 47.9 cases per million child-years in children and 23.8 in adolescents. The ASRw of leukaemia increased with an annual percentage change of 9.6 % (95 % CI: 2.2-17.6) until 1990 followed by a stabilisation of rates. In adolescents, incidence did not increase. Five-year survival increased from 66 % in 1991-1995 to 76 % in 2001-2005. By age, survival was dramatically lower in infants (0) and adolescents (15-19) than in the other age groups and no improvement was observed. In both children and adolescents, differences in 5-year survival rates among major subgroups of leukaemias were significant.

CONCLUSIONS

The increasing incidence trends observed in childhood leukaemias during the study period were confined to the beginning of the period. Remarkable improvements in survival have been observed in Spanish children with leukaemias. However, this improvement was not observed in infants and adolescents.

Incidence of childhood leukemia in Yogyakarta, Indonesia, 1998-2009

BACKGROUND

In most developing countries, incidence data for childhood cancers are less reliable, because very few population-based registries exist. The aim of this study was to present the epidemiology of childhood leukemia in the Dr. Sardjito Hospital (DSH) region, which catchment area extends beyond the boundaries of the Yogyakarta Special Province (YSP).

PROCEDURE

Health records of children, 0-14 years of age, who were diagnosed with leukemia between January 1998 and December 2009, were reviewed. Diagnosis of leukemia was confirmed by morphological and histochemical examination of marrow samples.

RESULTS

The estimated average annual incidence rate (AAIR) of childhood acute leukemia in DSH was 46.2 per million per year. Interestingly, the annual incidence rate (AIR) of childhood acute leukemia from the catchment area of DSH significantly increased from 35 in 1999 to 70 in 2009 (ANOVA, P = 0.003). The YSP population data, analyzed separately, showed an increase in AIR from 15.7 to 32.9 (ANOVA, P = 0.325) and an AAIR of 28.8. Remarkably, a relatively high frequency (25.5% in DSH and 27.7% in YSP) of children with AML was found in the group of acute leukemias.

CONCLUSION

The DSH incidence calculations may be overestimated due to an underestimation of the population number. Since the population count for YSP is more precise, the data of YSP were used for comparison with developed countries. AAIR of ALL (20.8) is relatively low compared to Western countries (22.4-37.9). The AAIR of AML (8.0) is similar to Western countries (5.0-8.0) resulting a relatively high percentage of AML versus ALL (27.7%) in YSP.

Population-based incidence of childhood leukaemias and lymphomas in Spain (1993-2002)

The aim of this study was to estimate the incidence of leukaemias and lymphomas in children according to the International Classification of Childhood Cancer third edition (ICCC-3) in the population covered by the Girona, Valencia, and Zaragoza population-based cancer registries and compare it with the incidence rates in other European countries. All haematological malignancies (HMs) registered between 1993 and 2002 in children below 15 years of age were included in the study. Pathological and haematological diagnoses were reviewed, recoded according to International Classification of Diseases for Oncology-3 and reclassified on the basis of ICCC-3. Sex and age-adjusted incidence rates were calculated, using the world population as standard. Five hundred and seventy-one HMs were registered in the Girona, Valencia and Zaragoza Cancer Registries during the study period. According to ICCC-3, precursor cell leukaemias were the most frequent HMs in children and constituted 60% of all HMs (an age-adjusted incidence rate of 42.7 per million children-years). The second most frequent childhood HM was Hodgkin lymphoma (11.2% of all HMs), yielding an age-adjusted standardized incidence rate of 6.3 per million children-years. With regard to myeloid lineage, acute myeloid leukaemias were the most frequent with a rate of 7.9 per million children-years. The standardized incidence rates for lymphoid leukaemia (1.19) and Burkitt lymphoma (3.94) were statistically higher than the rates observed in Europe. Compared with European data, Spain has a high incidence of lymphoid leukaemias and lymphomas. In particular, a high incidence of Burkitt lymphoma was observed. The causes of this geographical variation are still unknown.

Trends in childhood leukemia in Basrah, Iraq, 1993-2007

OBJECTIVES

Through a sister-university relationship between the University of Basrah and the University of Washington, we analyzed Ibn Ghazwan Hospital's leukemia registry data to evaluate trends in childhood leukemia since 1993.

METHODS

We documented leukemia cases among children aged 0 to 14 years for each of the last 15 years. Population data were obtained from a 1997 census and various subsequent estimates to calculate rates.

RESULTS

We observed 698 cases of childhood leukemia between 1993 and 2007, ranging between 15 cases (2.6 per 100 000 annual rate) in the first year and 56 cases (6.9 per 100 000 annual rate) in the final year, reaching a peak of 97 cases in 2006 (12.2 per 100 000 annual rate).

CONCLUSIONS

Childhood leukemia rates in Basrah more than doubled over a 15-year period. The test for trend was significant (P = .03). Basrah's childhood leukemia rate compared unfavorably with neighboring Kuwait and nearby Oman, as well as the United States, the European Union, and other countries.

Might salicylate exert benefits against childhood cancer?

Childhood cancers are a broad range of diseases. Research on the chemopreventive potential of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, such as aspirin (acetylsalicylate) has yet to be fully directed towards childhood cancers. A prima facie hypothesis on salicylate and childhood cancer would therefore be based on several factors. Firstly, salicylate inhibits the production of inflammatory prostaglandins, which have been shown to stimulate the growth of cancer cells. Secondly, salicylate inhibits the growth of cancer cells in pre-clinical models. Thirdly, salicylate is a natural component of fruits and vegetables so it is consumed within the diet. Further research, of which some possibilities are identified, is recommended.

How the effect of maternal age on the risk of childhood leukemia changed over time in Sweden, 1960-2004

BACKGROUND

Previous studies on the association between maternal age and risk of childhood leukemia found inconsistent results.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to assess whether there is an association between maternal age and risk of childhood leukemia and whether such an association is modified by maternal year of birth.

METHODS

By linking nationwide Swedish registers, we analyzed leukemia incidence among all children between 1 and 5 years of age born between 1960 and 1999. We estimated incidence time trends by child year of birth (overall and stratified by maternal age) and incidence rate ratios (RRs) for maternal age groups stratified by maternal birth cohort. We tested the interaction between maternal age and child year of birth through the likelihood ratio test between nested Poisson regression models.

RESULTS

We observed 1,562 leukemia cases. The overall annual percent change (APC) was 1.00 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.51 to 1.49]. Stratifying by maternal age classes, APCs decreased from 1.66 (0.68 to 2.65) for mothers <or= 24 years to 0.23 (-0.93 to 1.40) for mothers >or= 35 years at delivery. RRs for children born to the oldest with respect to the youngest mothers were 2.42 (1.31 to 4.67), 1.68 (1.00 to 2.72), 1.34 (0.87 to 2.01), and 0.87 (0.46-1.54) for mothers born in 1930-1934, 1940-1944, 1950-1954, and 1960-1964, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Childhood leukemia risk increased with maternal age for mothers born in the past, whereas maternal age had no effect on this risk for mothers born more recently. This finding may explain the inconsistency of previous studies and suggests that leukemia risk may be related to an environmental factor to which women's exposure has changed over time.

Trends in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia in Western Australia, 1960-2006

Increases in the incidence of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) have been reported in some countries, while other reports from similar geographical regions have indicated stable rates. The reasons for the discrepancies have been debated in the literature, with the focus on whether the observed increases are "real" or an artifact resulting from improvements in diagnosis, case ascertainment and population coverage over time. We used population-based data from Western Australia to investigate trends in the incidence of childhood ALL between 1960 and 2006. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) and rate ratios (indicating annual percent change) were estimated using Poisson regression. Between 1960 and 2006, the ASR was 3.7 per 100,000 person-years, with an annual percent increase of 0.40% (95% CI: -0.20, 1.00). Between 1982 and 2006, the ASR was 3.8, with an annual percent increase of 0.80% (95% CI = -0.70 to 2.30). This increased to 1.42% (95% CI: -0.30, 3.0) when a sensitivity analysis was undertaken to assess the effect of excluding the final 2 years of data. Annual increases of 3.7% (95% CI: -0.50, 8.00) among children aged 5-14 years, and of 3.10% (95% CI: 0.50, 5.70) in girls, were observed for this latter period. These results were supported by national Australian incidence data available for 1982-2003. There may have been a small increase in the incidence of ALL since 1982 among girls and older children, but an overall increase appears unlikely. No impact of folate supplementation or fortification is apparent.

Effects of maternal age and cohort of birth on incidence time trends of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia

Several studies report increasing trends in the incidence of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL). Because ALL may generate in utero, this study investigated if maternal age and birth cohort influence ALL temporal trends. Data on 252 ALL cases in children ages 1 to 5 years were extracted from the population-based Childhood Cancer Registry of Piedmont, Italy. Information on cases' maternal age and year of birth was obtained from the registry, whereas population data were obtained for children born in 1980 to 1997. Incidence rates were analyzed using an age-period-cohort approach, in which the period effect was represented by the child year of birth, the age effect by the maternal age at the time of delivery, and the cohort effect by the maternal birth cohort. ALL incidence increased over the study period [annual percentage change 2.49%; 95% confidence interval (95% CI), 0.09-4.93]. A linear effect of the maternal time variables (P = 0.012) was found, which was equally described by maternal age (direct association) and maternal birth cohort (inverse association). The annual percentage change was 1.83% (95% CI, -0.59-4.31), when maternal age was included in the model, and 5.72% (95% CI, 2.29-9.27), when maternal year of birth was included. In conclusion, maternal characteristics substantially affect temporal trends in childhood ALL incidence.

Leukaemia incidence and survival in children and adolescents in Europe during 1978–1997. Report from the Automated Childhood Cancer Information System project

Leukaemias constitute approximately one-third of cancers in children (age 0-14 years) and 10% in adolescents (age 15-19 years). Geographical patterns (1988-1997) and time trends (1978-1997) of incidence and survival from leukaemias in children (n=29,239) and adolescents (n=1929) were derived from the ACCIS database, including data from 62 cancer registries in 19 countries across Europe. The overall incidence rate of leukaemia in children was 44 per million person-years during 1988-1997. Lymphoid leukaemia (LL) accounted for 81%, acute non-lymphocytic leukaemia (ANLL) for 15%, chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML) for 1.5% and unspecified leukaemia for 1.3% of cases. Adjusted for sex and age, incidence of childhood LL was significantly lower in the East and higher in the North than in the British Isles. The overall incidence among adolescents was 22.6 per million person-years. The incidence of LL was rising in children (0.6% per year) and adolescents (1.9% per year). During 1988-1997 5-year survival of children with leukaemias was 73% (95% CI 72-74) and approximately 44% for infants and adolescents. Similar differences in survival between children and adolescents were observed for LL, much less so for ANLL. Survival differed between regions; prognosis was better in the North and West than the East. Remarkable improvements in survival occurred in most of the subgroups of patients defined by diagnostic subgroup, age, sex and geographic categories during the period 1978-1997. For children with ANLL most improvements in survival were observed in the 1990s.