Cancer surveillance using registry data: Results and recommendations for the Lithuanian national prostate cancer early detection programme

Prostate cancer incidence and mortality in Europe and implications for screening activities: population based study

OBJECTIVE

To provide a baseline comparative assessment of the main epidemiological features of prostate cancer in European populations as background for the proposed EU screening initiatives.

DESIGN

Population based study.

SETTING

26 European countries, 19 in the EU, 1980-2017. National or subnational incidence data were extracted from population based cancer registries from the International Agency for Research on Cancer's Global Cancer Observatory, and mortality data from the World Health Organization.

POPULATION

Men aged 35-84 years from 26 eligible countries.

RESULTS

Over the past decades, incidence rates for prostate cancer varied markedly in both magnitude and rate of change, in parallel with temporal variations in prostate specific antigen testing. The variation in incidence across countries was largest around the mid-2000s, with rates spanning from 46 (Ukraine) to 336 (France) per 100 000 men. Thereafter, incidence started to decline in several countries, but with the latest rates nevertheless remaining raised and increasing again in the most recent quinquennium in several countries. Mortality rates during 1980-2020 were much lower and less variable than incidence rates, with steady declines in most countries and lesser temporal differences between countries. Overall, the up to 20-fold variation in prostate cancer incidence contrasts with a corresponding fivefold variation in mortality. Also, the inverse U-shape of the age specific curves for incidence contrasted with the mortality pattern, which increased progressively with age. The difference between the highest and lowest incidence rates across countries ranged from 89.6 per 100 000 men in 1985 to 385.8 per 100 000 men in 2007, while mortality rates across countries ranged from 23.7 per 100 000 men in 1983 to 35.6 per 100 000 men in 2006.

CONCLUSIONS

The epidemiological features of prostate cancer presented here are indicative of overdiagnosis varying over time and across populations. Although the results are ecological in nature and must be interpreted with caution, they do support previous recommendations that any future implementation of prostate cancer screening must be carefully designed with an emphasis on minimising the harms of overdiagnosis.

Impact of Prostate Cancer in Eastern Europe and Approaches to Treatment and Policy

Prostate cancer is among the most prevalent cancer globally and within Eastern Europe, where there are also higher levels of mortality compared with Western Europe. Cancer control plans exist in most countries in the region. Attention should be given to devising and implementing optimal screening initiatives. Our review has identified that a lack of resources and health system dysfunctions hamper progress in ameliorating the burden of prostate cancer. Regional cooperation is needed as well as drawing on guidelines and findings from elsewhere. Health institutions must also know the latest developments and set up systems that allow swift adoption.

An analysis of time trends in breast and prostate cancer mortality rates in Lithuania, 1986-2020

Background

Breast cancer (BC) and prostate cancer (PC) mortality rates in Lithuania remain comparatively high despite the ongoing BC and PC screening programmes established in 2006. The aim of this study was to investigate time trends in BC and PC mortality rates in Lithuania evaluating the effects of age, calendar period of death, and birth-cohort over a 35-year time span.

Methods

We obtained death certification data for BC in women and PC in men for Lithuania during the period 1986–2020 from the World Health Organisation database. Age-standardised mortality rates were analysed using Joinpoint regression. Age-period-cohort models were used to assess the independent age, period and cohort effects on the observed mortality trends.

Results

Joinpoint regression analysis indicated that BC mortality increased by 1.6% annually until 1996, and decreased by − 1.2% annually thereafter. The age-period-cohort analysis suggests that temporal trends in BC mortality rates could be attributed mainly to cohort effects. The cohort effect curvature showed the risk of BC death increased in women born prior to 1921, remained stable in cohorts born around 1921–1951 then decreased; however, trend reversed in more recent generations. The period effect curvature displayed a continuous decrease in BC mortality since 1991–1995. For PC mortality, after a sharp increase by 3.0%, rates declined from 2007 by − 1.7% annually. The period effect was predominant in PC mortality, the curvature displaying a sharp increase until 2001–2005, then decrease.

Conclusions

Modestly declining recent trends in BC and PC mortality are consistent with the introduction of widespread mammography and PSA testing, respectively, lagging up to 10 years. The study did not show that screening programme introduction played a key role in BC mortality trends in Lithuania. Screening may have contributed to favourable recent changes in PC mortality rates in Lithuania, however the effect was moderate and limited to age groups < 65 years. Further improvements in early detection methods followed by timely appropriate treatment are essential for decreasing mortality from BC and PC.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-022-14207-4.

Prostate Cancer Screening with PSA: Ten Years' Experience of Population Based Early Prostate Cancer Detection Programme in Lithuania

The aim of this study is to report key performance estimates from the ten years of a population-based prostate cancer screening programme in Lithuania. Retrospective analysis of screening activities recorded in 2006–2015 among men aged 50–74 years was performed. We estimated screening coverage, cancer detection rate, compliance to biopsy, and positive predictive values in each screening round inside and outside the target population. In the first 10 years of screening, 16,061 prostate cancer cases were registered within the screening programme, 10,202 were observed among screened men but reported outside the screening programme, and 1455 prostate cancers were observed in a screening-naïve population. Screening cover reached up to 45.5% of the target population in the recent rounds. The proportion of prostate specific antigen (PSA) test-positive men decreased from 16.9% in 2006 to 10.7% in 2014–2015. Up to 40.0% of PSA test-positive men received a biopsy, of whom 42.0% were positive for prostate cancer. The cancer detection rate was 10.4−15.0% among PSA test-positives and 1.4–1.9% among screened individuals. Screening participants were more likely to be diagnosed with organ-confined disease as compared to non-participants. Despite the unorganized screening practices being employed and low coverage per screening round, 70% of the target population were screened at least once in the first 10 years of screening.

Introducing PIONEER: a project to harness big data in prostate cancer research

Prostate Cancer Diagnosis and Treatment Enhancement Through the Power of Big Data in Europe (PIONEER) is a European network of excellence for big data in prostate cancer, consisting of 32 private and public stakeholders from 9 countries across Europe. Launched by the Innovative Medicines Initiative 2 and part of the Big Data for Better Outcomes Programme (BD4BO), the overarching goal of PIONEER is to provide high-quality evidence on prostate cancer management by unlocking the potential of big data. The project has identified critical evidence gaps in prostate cancer care, via a detailed prioritization exercise including all key stakeholders. By standardizing and integrating existing high-quality and multidisciplinary data sources from patients with prostate cancer across different stages of the disease, the resulting big data will be assembled into a single innovative data platform for research. Based on a unique set of methodologies, PIONEER aims to advance the field of prostate cancer care with a particular focus on improving prostate-cancer-related outcomes, health system efficiency by streamlining patient management, and the quality of health and social care delivered to all men with prostate cancer and their families worldwide.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Prostate-Specific Antigen Screening Among Chinese Men

OBJECTIVES

To analyze the cost-effectiveness of prostate cancer screening among Chinese men.

METHODS

A cost-effectiveness analysis was performed from a societal perspective using a Markov model to compare 2 strategies: the population-based screening strategy and the current clinical diagnostic strategy. Relevant parameters were retrieved from published literature data and surveys, and univariate sensitivity analysis was used to assess the robustness of the model. We simulated the health outcomes for the next 25 years for 100 000 men and calculated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER).

RESULTS

This study found that the population-based screening strategy, compared with the clinical diagnostic strategy, could save 756.61 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) for the hypothetical population. The ICER for the population-based screening strategy was ¥14 747.11/QALY, and this value was less than the willingness-to-pay threshold of ¥64 520. With life-year gains (LYGs) as the model output, the population-based screening strategy yielded an ICER of ¥16 470.45/LYG. The univariate sensitivity analyses showed that the ICER was sensitive to the prostate-specific antigen (PSA) test fee, the proportion diagnosed with low-grade prostate cancer (PC) in the population-based strategy, and the proportion diagnosed with intermediate-grade PC in the population-based strategy.

CONCLUSIONS

Prostate cancer screening based on PSA test results appears to be cost-effective for Chinese men who are in good health and have a life expectancy of more than 10 years. Nevertheless, this finding needs to be further studied with more treatment cost parameters (treatment costs related to impotence and urinary incontinence) and using local utility value information.

Suicide risk among prostate cancer patients before and after the implementation of prostate-specific antigen-based prostate screening in Lithuania in 2006

Despite good prognosis, increased suicide rates are reported for prostate cancer. The aim of this study was to assess the risk of suicide among prostate cancer patients before and after the start of nation-wide prostate-specific antigen (PSA)-based screening programme. Prostate cancer cases diagnosed between 2000 and 2011 were identified from the population-based Lithuanian Cancer Registry and analysis was conducted in 2018. Analysis was stratified by period of diagnosis, age, Gleason score, extent of disease, and time since diagnosis. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were used to assess suicide risk. SMRs were calculated by dividing the observed number of suicides among prostate cancer patients by the expected number of suicides from the general population. Overall, 25 786 prostate cancer cases were diagnosed 2000-2011, and 135 suicides occurred among them compared with expected number of 133 (SMR: 1.10; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.85-1.20). The suicide risk among prostate cancer patients was 1.08 before and 0.97 after the start of nation-wide PSA-based screening programme. Statistically significant increase in suicide risk was associated with Gleason score 8-10 in the prescreening period (SMR: 2.45; 95% CI 1.23-4.90). Suicide risk among prostate cancer patients before and after introduction of nation-wide PSA-based screening programme is similar to that in the general population.

Increased Risk of Site-Specific Cancer in People with Type 2 Diabetes: A National Cohort Study

A retrospective cohort design was used with the objective to evaluate cancer risk among people with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in Lithuania. The cohort was established by identifying all patients with the first diagnosis of T2DM in the National Health Insurance Fund database during 2000-2012. Cancer cases were identified by record linkage with the Lithuanian Cancer Registry. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) were calculated. Of the 127,290 people that were included, 5959 cases of cancer in men and 6661 cancer cases in women with T2DM were observed. A statistically significant increase in risk for all cancer sites was observed in women, SIR 1.16 (95% CI 1.14-1.19), but not in men, SIR 1.00 (95% CI 0.98-1.03). Among males, a significant increase of liver (SIR 2.11, 95% CI 1.79-2.49]), pancreas (SIR 1.77, 95% CI 1.57-1.99), kidney (SIR 1.46 95% CI 1.31-1.62), thyroid (SIR 1.83, 95% CI 1.32-2.54), colorectal (SIR 1.23, 95% CI 1.14-1.31]), skin melanoma (SIR 1.40, 95% CI 1.11-1.76), and non-melanoma skin (SIR 1.14, 95% CI 1.05-1.23) cancer was observed. For females with T2DM, a significant increase in risk of cancer of the liver (SIR 1.45, 95% CI 1.17-1.79), pancreas (SIR 1.74, 95% CI 1.56-1.93), kidney (SIR = 1.43, 95% CI 1.28-1.60), thyroid (SIR = 1.40, 95% CI 1.22-1.62), breast (SIR = 1.24, 95% CI 1.17-1.31), and corpus uteri (SIR 2.07, 95% CI 1.93-2.21) was observed. In conclusion, people with T2DM in Lithuania had an increased risk of site-specific cancer.

Changing Incidence and Stage Distribution of Prostate Cancer in a Lithuanian Population-Evidence from National PSA-Based Screening Program

Background: The aim of this study was to examine the impact of screening introduction on prostate cancer incidence changes, and changes in stage distribution in Lithuania between 1998–2016. Methods: Age-standardized incidence as well as stage-specific incidence rates were calculated. Joinpoint regression was used to estimate the annual percentage change in the incidence changes by determined stage: Localized, advanced, distant and unknown. Results: Over the study period, a total number of 48,815 new prostate cancer cases was identified. Age-standardized incidence rose from 51.9 per 100,000 in 1998 to 279.3 per 100,000 in 2007 (by 20.3% per year) and then decreased thereafter by 3.8% annually. Highest incidence rates after introduction of prostate specific antigene (PSA)-based screening was found for localized disease, followed by advanced. Incidence of localized disease rose by 38.2% per year until 2007 reaching the highest rate of 284.6 per 100,000, with a subsequent decrease of 5.5% every year thereafter. Advanced stage of disease experienced rise till 2007, and continuous decrease by 11.1% every year thereafter. Incidence of disease with distant metastasis was lowest, and rose till 2003, thereafter incidence significantly decreased by 8.1% every year. Conclusions: To our knowledge, this is the first report of stage migration effect in Lithuania, following the introduction of nationwide PSA-based screening. Prostate cancer screening substantially increased the overall incidence and incidence of localized cancer.

Prostate cancer incidence and mortality in the Baltic states, Belarus, the Russian Federation and Ukraine

BACKGROUND

Prostate cancer incidence varies internationally largely attributable to differences in prostate-specific antigen (PSA) use. The aim of this study was to provide the most recent detailed international epidemiological comparison of prostate cancer incidence and mortality in six north-eastern European countries (Belarus, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, the Russian Federation and Ukraine).

METHODS

The number of incident prostate cancer cases was obtained from the countries national cancer registries. Prostate cancer mortality and corresponding population data were extracted from the WHO Mortality Database. Age-specific and age-standardised incidence and mortality rates were calculated (European Standard). The joinpoint regression model was used to provide an average annual percentage change and to detect points in time where significant changes in trends occurred. The observation period was between 13 (Ukraine) and 48 (Estonia) years regarding incidence and around 30 years regarding mortality.

RESULTS

The comparison of prostate cancer incidence in six European countries showed almost sixfold differences in the age-adjusted rates in most recent years with highest incidence rates in Lithuania and Estonia. Through the observation period, overall a continuous rise was seen in incidence in all countries and a continuous rise in mortality, with a stabilisation in Estonia and a decrease in Lithuania in recent years. Data limitations included a descriptive design using ecological data.

CONCLUSIONS

A widespread use of PSA testing seems to be responsible for the changes in the epidemiology of the disease in north-eastern European countries. Substantial variation in the incidence of prostate cancer in the Baltic states suggests the possibility that PSA performance and utilisation spread have had a major influence on observed incidence trends, with a lack of effect on prostate cancer mortality.

[Prostate cancer screening: Reasons of controversy]

We propose herein a short synthesis of evidence leading to deny organized screening of prostate cancer using PSA plus or minus rectal digital examination. Nevertheless, many scientific societies support opportunistic screening on basis of shared decision. Today, numerous proposals had been made to reduce the overdiagnosis and overtreatreatment.

The effects of shared decision-making compared to usual care for prostate cancer screening decisions: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Shared decision-making (SDM) is recommended for men facing prostate cancer (PC) screening decisions. We synthesize the evidence on the comparative effectiveness of SDM with usual care.

Methods

We searched academic and grey literature databases, and other sources for primary randomised controlled trials (RCTs) published in English comparing SDM to usual care and conducted in primary and specialised care. We assessed the individual study risk of bias, and calculated the study-specific and pooled relative risks (RR) or standardised mean differences (SMD) [with 95% confidence intervals (CI)] to perform random-effects meta-analyses for SDM-related and patient outcomes.

Results

Four RCTs comparing SDM to usual care, involving 1760 men, were included. SDM improved knowledge (SMD 0.23, 95%CI 0.02 to 0.43; 2 RCTs), but was not different to usual care in reducing either patient participation in prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing (RR 1.03, 95%CI 0.90 to 1.19; 2 RCTs) or decisional conflict (SMD -0.04, 95%CI -0.23 to 0.15; SMD -0.05, 95%CI -0.24 to 0.14; 2 RCTs). Individual trial estimates (46.7%) also suggest that SDM may reduce or neutralise physicians’ tendency for PSA screening, and may improve the accuracy of patients’ perception of lifetime-risks and men’s views towards screening. There was no evidence on the effects of SDM on health outcomes. The studies represent various interventions and outcomes and are prone to risk of bias.

Conclusions

There is currently insufficient evidence to support a clear association of SDM on patient- and SDM-related outcomes for decisions about PSA testing. Further research needs to assess the clinical effectiveness of SDM using well-defined SDM interventions and outcomes. It should address the absence of evidence, particularly on health outcomes.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12885-018-4794-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

ABO blood group polymorphism has an impact on prostate, kidney and bladder cancer in association with longevity

The aim of the present study was to assess the ABO blood group polymorphism association with prostate, bladder and kidney cancer, and longevity. The following data groups were analyzed: Prostate cancer (n=2,200), bladder cancer (n=1,530), renal cell cancer (n=2,650), oldest-old (n=166) and blood donors (n=994) groups. The data on the ABO blood type frequency and odds ratio in prostate cancer patients revealed a significantly higher blood group B frequency (P<0.05); the pooled men and women, separate men bladder cancer risk was significantly associated with the blood group B (P<0.04); however, no such association was identified in the female patients. The blood group O was observed to have a significantly decreased risk of bladder cancer for females (P<0.05). No significance for the ABO blood group type in the studied kidney cancer patients was identified. A comparison of the oldest-old and blood donor groups revealed that blood group A was significantly more frequent and blood type B was significantly rarer in the oldest-olds (P<0.05). The results of the present study indicated that blood type B was associated with the risk of prostate and bladder cancer, and could be evaluated as a determinant in the negative assocation with longevity. Blood types O and A may be positive factors for increasing the oldest-old age likelihood. The clustering analysis by the ABO type frequency demonstrated that the oldest-olds comprised a separate cluster of the studied groups.

Concordance of Non–Low-Risk Disease Among Pairs of Brothers With Prostate Cancer

Purpose

Prostate cancer among first-degree relatives is a strong risk factor for diagnosis of prostate cancer, and the contribution of heritable factors in prostate cancer etiology is high. We investigated how the concordance of non–low-risk prostate cancer among brothers is affected by their genetic relation.

Methods

We identified 4,262 pairs of brothers with prostate cancer in the Prostate Cancer Database Sweden. Their cancers were categorized as low risk (Gleason score ≤ 6; clinical stage T1-2, Nx/N0, Mx/M0; and prostate-specific antigen ≤ 10 ng/mL) or non–low risk. The odds ratio (OR) for concordance of non–low-risk cancer was calculated with logistic regression for the different types of fraternity (monozygotic twins, dizygotic twins, full brothers, and half-brothers)

Results

Among monozygotic twins who both were diagnosed with prostate cancer, the OR for both brothers being in the non–low-risk category was 3.82 (95% CI, 0.99 to 16.72) after adjusting for age and year of diagnosis. Among full brothers, the corresponding adjusted OR was 1.21 (95% CI, 1.04 to 1.39). When the analysis was restricted to brothers who both were diagnosed within 4 years, the results were similar.

Conclusion

Non–low-risk prostate cancer has a heritable pattern suggesting shared genetic factors, with the highest concordance among monozygotic twins. Our results suggest that a man whose brother has been diagnosed with a non–low-risk prostate cancer is at a clinically relevant increased risk of developing an aggressive prostate cancer himself.

Screening for prostate cancer: are organized screening programs necessary?

Already in 1991 when the prostate-specific antigen (PSA) test was proposed as a diagnostic test, screening for prostate cancer (PCa) was considered controversial due to the considerable risk of detecting latent PCa. Randomised controlled trials were initiated to assess the potential of PSA-based screening in reducing disease-specific mortality. Harms and benefit were closely monitored and both were confirmed. A reduction in mortality was seen and at the same time the initial fear of unnecessary testing and over diagnosis became reality. This triggered professional organizations to adapt their guidelines and to focus on shared decision making (SDM) and selective screening for those men considered at high risk. Unfortunately implementation of guidelines into daily clinical practice is bothersome. As a result many men are being (re)tested while not being at risk and the potential benefit being unclear. This raises the question on whether PSA screening should be organized in controlled programs. While the PSA test will remain the mainstay of PCa early detection many other additional tests (biomarkers/imaging) are currently being tested in large population-based initiatives as a first step to organized programs in selective groups of men.

Prostate cancer screening-when to start and how to screen?

Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening reduces prostate cancer (PCa) mortality; however such screening may lead to harm in terms of overdiagnosis and overtreatment. Therefore, upfront shared decision making involving a discussion about pros and cons between a physician and a patient is crucial. Total PSA remains the most commonly used screening tool and is a strong predictor of future life-threatening PCa. Currently there is no strong consensus on the age at which to start PSA screening. Most guidelines recommend PSA screening to start no later than at age 55 and involve well-informed men in good health and a life expectancy of at least 10–15 years. Some suggest to start screening in early midlife for men with familial predisposition and men of African-American descent. Others suggest starting conversations at age 45 for all men. Re-screening intervals can be risk-stratified as guided by the man’s age, general health and PSA-value; longer intervals for those at lower risk and shorter intervals for those at higher risk. Overdiagnosis and unnecessary biopsies can be reduced using reflex tests. Magnetic resonance imaging in the pre-diagnostic setting holds promise in pilot studies and large-scale prospective studies are ongoing.

Basal cell skin cancer and the risk of second primary cancers: a cancer registry-based study in Lithuania

PURPOSE

The aim of this population-based cohort study was to determine the risk of second primary cancer in basal cell carcinoma (BCC) patients in Lithuania.

METHODS

This analysis was based on patients diagnosed with BCC in Lithuania between 1998 and 2007 and followed until 2011. Standardized incidence ratios for subsequent cancers as a ratio of observed number of cancer cases in people with previous BCC diagnosis to the expected number of cancer cases in the underlying general population were calculated.

RESULTS

After diagnosis of BCC, 1442 new cases of selected cancers were diagnosed. Compared with the general population, the incidence of all new primaries combined after BCC was very close to expected. Statistically meaningful increase in developing subsequent cancer was obtained for Hodgkin's lymphoma, prostate cancer, and leukemia in men, and for cancers of the lip, lung, and breast in women. Risk of melanoma and thyroid cancer was significantly elevated in both sexes. Relative risk of cancer of the eye was increased although not significant.

CONCLUSIONS

In our study, we found increased cancer risk for cancers related to sun exposure. In addition, increased risks were identified for Hodgkin's lymphoma, thyroid cancer, leukemia, prostate, and breast cancer in BCC patients.