Prediction of an estimated delivery date should take into account both the length of a previous pregnancy and the interpregnancy interval

Estimated date of delivery with electronic medical records by a hybrid GBDT-GRU model

An accurate estimated date of delivery (EDD) helps pregnant women make adequate preparations before delivery and avoid the panic of parturition. EDD is normally derived from some formulates or estimated by doctors based on last menstruation period and ultrasound examinations. This study attempted to combine antenatal examinations and electronic medical records to develop a hybrid model based on Gradient Boosting Decision Tree and Gated Recurrent Unit (GBDT-GRU). Besides exploring the features that affect the EDD, GBDT-GRU model obtained the results by dynamic prediction of different stages. The mean square error (MSE) and coefficient of determination (R²) were used to compare the performance among the different prediction methods. In addition, we evaluated predictive performances of different prediction models by comparing the proportion of pregnant women under the error of different days. Experimental results showed that the performance indexes of hybrid GBDT-GRU model outperformed other prediction methods because it focuses on analyzing the time-series predictors of pregnancy. The results of this study are helpful for the development of guidelines for clinical delivery treatments, as it can assist clinicians in making correct decisions during obstetric examinations.

The effect of mode of delivery and duration of labour on subsequent pregnancy outcomes: a retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To assess whether delivery mode and duration of labour in a first labour of spontaneous onset is associated with gestational length, delivery mode and neonatal outcome in the subsequent pregnancy.

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data.

SETTING

15 Maternity units in North West London (1988-2000).

POPULATION

30 840 women with spontaneous onset of labour in pregnancy 1 and a subsequent birth reported in the same database.

METHODS

Assessment of outcomes by mode of delivery in pregnancy 1, restricting the analysis to the difference in the gestational length between pregnancy 1 and 2.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Gestational length, mode of delivery and neonatal unit admission in pregnancy 2.

RESULTS

Caesarean section (CS) in the first or second stage of labour in pregnancy 1 was associated with pregnancy 2 being a median of 5 and 8 days shorter and a preterm birth rate of 6.0% and 10.1%, respectively, whereas following a normal or instrumental vaginal birth in pregnancy 1, the median duration was similar, with preterm delivery rates of 4.5% and 3.9%. In all, 56.2% of women with a CS in pregnancy 1 had a repeat CS and 12.5% of their babies were admitted to a neonatal unit, compared with 5.3% of women with vaginal birth. Longer labours were associated with shorter gestations in pregnancy 2.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared with vaginal birth, an emergency CS in the first-term pregnancy is associated with a shorter gestational length, increased rate of repeat CS and increased risk of NNU admission in the next pregnancy.

TWEETABLE ABSTRACT

An emergency caesarean section in the first-term pregnancy affects the duration and outcome of the next pregnancy.