Liver resection is justified for multinodular hepatocellular carcinoma in selected patients with cirrhosis: A multicenter analysis of 1,066 patients

Development of prognostic models for advanced multiple hepatocellular carcinoma based on Cox regression, deep learning and machine learning algorithms

Background

Most patients with multiple hepatocellular carcinoma (MHCC) are at advanced stage once diagnosed, so that clinical treatment and decision-making are quite tricky. The AJCC-TNM system cannot accurately determine prognosis, our study aimed to identify prognostic factors for MHCC and to develop a prognostic model to quantify the risk and survival probability of patients.

Methods

Eligible patients with HCC were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, and then prognostic models were built using Cox regression, machine learning (ML), and deep learning (DL) algorithms. The model's performance was evaluated using C-index, receiver operating characteristic curve, Brier score and decision curve analysis, respectively, and the best model was interpreted using SHapley additive explanations (SHAP) interpretability technique.

Results

A total of eight variables were included in the follow-up study, our analysis identified that the gradient boosted machine (GBM) model was the best prognostic model for advanced MHCC. In particular, the GBM model in the training cohort had a C-index of 0.73, a Brier score of 0.124, with area under the curve (AUC) values above 0.78 at the first, third, and fifth year. Importantly, the model also performed well in test cohort. The Kaplan-Meier (K-M) survival analysis demonstrated that the newly developed risk stratification system could well differentiate the prognosis of patients.

Conclusion

Of the ML models, GBM model could predict the prognosis of advanced MHCC patients most accurately.

Neoadjuvant therapy of sequential TACE, camrelizumab, and apatinib for single huge hepatocellular carcinoma (NEO-START): study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

The high recurrence rate after liver resection emphasizes the urgent need for neoadjuvant therapy in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) to enhance the overall prognosis for patients. Immune checkpoint inhibitors, camrelizumab combined with an anti-angiogenic tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI) apatinib, have emerged as a first-line treatment option for patients with unresectable HCC, yet its neoadjuvant application in combination with transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) in HCC remains unexplored. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the efficacy and safety of sequential TACE, camrelizumab, and apatinib as a neoadjuvant therapy for single, huge HCC.

METHODS

This multi-center, open-label randomized phase 3 trial will be conducted at 7 tertiary hospitals. Patients with single huge (≥ 10 cm in diameter), resectable HCC will be randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to arm of surgery alone or arm of neoadjuvant therapy followed by surgery. In the neoadjuvant therapy group, patients will receive TACE within 1 week after randomization, followed by camrelizumab (200 mg q2w, 4 cycles), along with apatinib (250 mg qd, 2 months). Patients will receive liver resection after neoadjuvant therapy unless the disease is assessed as progressive. The primary outcome is recurrence-free survival (RFS) at 1 year. The planned sample size of 60 patients will be calculated to permit the accumulation of sufficient RFS events in 1 year to achieve 80% power for the RFS primary endpoint.

DISCUSSION

Synergistic effects provided by multimodality therapy of locoregional treatment, TKI, and anti-programmed cell death 1 inhibitor significantly improved overall survival for patients with unresectable HCC. Our trial will investigate the efficacy and safety of the triple combination of TACE, camrelizumab, and apatinib as a neoadjuvant strategy for huge, resectable HCC.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

www.chitr.org.cn ChiCTR2300078086. Registered on November 28, 2023. Start recruitment: 1st January 2024. Expected completion of recruitment: 15th June 2025.

Impact of guideline adherence on the prognosis of Barcelona clinic liver cancer stage B hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Patients with Barcelona clinic liver cancer (BCLC) stage B hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are considerably heterogeneous in terms of tumor burden, liver function, and performance status. To improve the poor survival outcomes of these patients, treatment approaches other than transarterial chemoembolization (TACE), which is recommended by HCC guidelines, have been adopted in real-world clinical practice. We hypothesize that this non-adherence to treatment guidelines, particularly with respect to the use of liver resection, improves survival in patients with stage B HCC.

AIM

To assess guideline adherence in South Korean patients with stage B HCC and study its impact on survival.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis was conducted using data from 2008 to 2016 obtained from the Korea Central Cancer Registry. Patients with stage B HCC were categorized into three treatment groups, guideline-adherent, upward, and downward, based on HCC guidelines recommended by the Asian Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver (APASL), the European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL), and the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases (AASLD). The primary outcome was HCC-related deaths; tumor recurrence served as the secondary outcome. Survival among the groups was compared using the Kaplan-Meier method and the log-rank test. Predictors of survival outcomes were identified using multivariable Cox regression analysis.

RESULTS

In South Korea, over the study period from 2008 to 2016, a notable trend was observed in adherence to HCC guidelines. Adherence to the EASL guidelines started relatively high, ranging from 77% to 80% between 2008 and 2012, but it gradually declined to 58.8% to 71.6% from 2013 to 2016. Adherence to the AASLD guidelines began at 71.7% to 75.9% from 2008 to 2010, and then it fluctuated between 49.2% and 73.8% from 2011 to 2016. In contrast, adherence to the APASL guidelines remained consistently high, staying within the range of 90.14% to 94.5% throughout the entire study period. Upward treatment, for example with liver resection, liver transplantation, or radiofrequency ablation, significantly improved the survival of patients with BCLC stage B HCC compared to that of patients treated in adherence to the guidelines (for patients analyzed according to the 2000 EASL guidelines, the 5-year survival rates were 63.4% vs 27.2%, P < 0.001), although results varied depending on the guidelines. Progression-free survival rates were also significantly improved upon the use of upward treatments in certain groups. Patients receiving upward treatments were typically < 70 years old, had platelet counts > 105/μL, and serum albumin levels ≥ 3.5 g/dL.

CONCLUSION

Adherence to guidelines significantly influences survival in South Korean stage B HCC patients. Curative treatments outperform TACE, but liver resection should be selected with caution due to disease heterogeneity.

Surgical resection versus transarterial chemoembolization for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma beyond Milan criteria: prognostic role of tumor burden score

Tumor burden score (TBS) has been recently introduced to indicate the extent of tumor burden in different cancers, but its role in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is unclear. We aimed to determine the prognostic role of TBS in patients with HCC beyond the Milan criteria receiving surgical resection (SR) or transarterial chemoembolization (TACE). A total of 1303 newly diagnosed HCC patients beyond Milan criteria receiving SR or TACE as the primary therapy were retrospectively analyzed. Independent prognostic predictors were examined by the multivariate Cox proportional hazards model. SR was associated with better overall survival compared with TACE in these patients. Multivariate Cox analysis of the entire cohort revealed that age > 66 years (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.145, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.004-1.305, p = 0.043), serum α-fetoprotein > 200 ng/mL (HR: 1.602, 95% CI: 1.402-1.831, p < 0.001), performance status 2-4 (HR: 1.316, 95% CI: 1.115-1.553, p < 0.001), medium TBS (HR: 1.225, 95% CI:1.045-1.436, p = 0.012), high TBS (HR: 1.976, 95% CI: 1.637-2.384, p < 0.001), albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade 2-3 (HR: 1.529, 95% CI: 1.342-1.743, p < 0.001), presence of vascular invasion (HR: 1.568, 95% CI: 1.354-1.816, p < 0.001), and TACE (HR: 2.396, 95% CI: 2.082-2.759, p < 0.001) were linked with decreased survival. SR consistently predicted a significantly better survival in different TBS subgroups. TBS is a feasible and independent prognostic predictor in HCC beyond the Milan criteria. SR provides better long-term outcome compared with TACE in these patients independent of TBS grade, and should be considered as the primary treatment modality in this special patient group.

Prognostic factors for long-term outcome in bifocal hepatocellular carcinoma after resection

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to evaluate whether the radiological similarity and clinicopathological factors determine the prognosis in bifocal hepatocellular carcinoma (bHCC) stratified by the Milan criteria.

METHODS

Consecutive patients with pathologically confirmed bHCC examined between January 2016 and December 2018 were retrospectively enrolled and grouped based on the Milan criteria. Two radiologists independently evaluated whether the imaging features of both tumors were consistent or not, which was defined as the radiological similarity. The clinicopathological data were also collected. The multivariable Cox regression was applied to separately identify the independent factors for recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) in bHCC within and beyond the Milan criteria.

RESULTS

A total of 193 patients were evaluated and divided into the within the Milan criteria group (n = 72) and the beyond the Milan criteria group (n = 121). bHCC within the Milan criteria showed a significantly better prognosis than those beyond the criteria. In the within the Milan criteria group, HBV-DNA load  >10⁴ IU/mL, microvascular invasion (MVI), and different enhancement patterns were independently associated with poor RFS. MVI was an independent prognostic factor for poor OS. In the beyond the Milan criteria group, HBV infection, MVI, increased ratio of the larger to the smaller tumor diameter (RLSD) value, and low comprehensive similarity were associated with shorter RFS, whereas MVI and increased RLSD value were independent predictors for poor OS.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study revealed that in addition to MVI- and HBV-related factors, similarity in imaging features between lesions of bHCC is associated with the long-term prognosis.

KEY POINTS

• The prognosis of bifocal HCC patients within the Milan criteria is significantly better than those beyond the criteria. • The similarity in imaging features between lesions of bHCC was an independent prognostic factor. • The more similar the bifocal lesions are in imaging features, the better the prognosis is.

Lenvatinib combined with anti-PD-1 antibodies plus transcatheter arterial chemoembolization for neoadjuvant treatment of resectable hepatocellular carcinoma with high risk of recurrence: A multicenter retrospective study

Background

Early recurrence is common after surgical resection (SR) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) with high risk of recurrence and is associated with poor prognosis. The combinations of lenvatinib (LEN), anti-PD-1 antibodies (PD-1) and transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE) (triple therapy) has shown better trend in tumor response and survival outcomes on unresectable HCC. It is unknown whether triple therapy for neoadjuvant treatment of resectable HCC with high risk of recurrence is effective. This article aimed to compare the outcomes of surgery alone and neoadjuvant combination treatment with triple therapy before SR in patients with HCC with high risk of recurrence.

Methods

A retrospective study was conducted on patients diagnosed with HCC with high risk of recurrence who received treatment with or without triple therapy. The records of 24 patients in the triple therapy group and 76 patients in the surgery-alone group were analyzed. Propensity score matching (PSM) was performed to minimize the influence of potential confounders.

Results

One hundred patients were enrolled. In the triple therapy group, 8 (33.3%) and 12 (50.0%) patients had complete and partial responses, respectively, as assessed by an investigator. Before PSM, the overall survival (OS) rates for the triple therapy group at 6, 12, 18, and 24 months were 100.0%, 100.0%, 100.0%, and 85.7%, respectively, compared with corresponding 92.1%, 73.7%, 53.9%, and 48.7% for the surgery-alone group (P<0.001). The disease-free survival (DFS) rates were 82.2%, 66.95%, 48.8%, and 48.8% for the triple therapy and 41.92%, 28.34%, 27.05%, and 22.99% for the surgery-alone group (P=0.003). After PSM, DFS and OS were significantly longer in the triple therapy group than in the surgery-alone group (DFS, p=0.019; OS, p=0.003).

Conclusions

Neoadjuvant combination treatment before SR had a high rate of tumor response and provided significantly better postoperative survival outcomes than surgery alone in patients with HCC with high risk of recurrence.

Hepatic Resection Combined with Intraoperative Radiofrequency Ablation Versus Hepatic Resection Alone for Selected Patients with Moderately Advanced Multifocal Hepatocellular Carcinomas

BACKGROUND

The role of hepatic resection (HR) combined with radiofrequency ablation (RFA) versus HR alone remains unclear for patients with multifocal hepatocellular carcinomas (HCCs). The aim of this study was to assess the outcomes of selected patients with moderately advanced multifocal HCCs after HR combined with intraoperative RFA versus HR alone.

METHODS

A total of 304 selected patients with multifocal HCCs (three or fewer lesions, with the largest lesion > 4.5 cm and the residual lesion[s] ≤ 3 cm) who underwent HR plus RFA (HR+RFA group) or HR alone (HR group) were included. Propensity score matching (PSM) was used to adjust for baseline differences. Multivariable and subgroup analyses estimated the effects of clinical factors on survival.

RESULTS

Both overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) were comparable between both groups before and after PSM. Subgroup analysis showed that HR was associated with better RFS than HR+RFA for those patients with two tumors, or with all lesions located in the same lobe or without microvascular invasion (MVI) [all p < 0.05]. Moreover, en bloc resection provided a higher RFS than separate resection for those with all lesions in the same lobe (p = 0.039).

CONCLUSION

For selected patients with moderately advanced multifocal HCCs, HR+RFA may offer similar OS and RFS as HR alone. However, HR may be more suitable for those with two tumors, or with all lesions in the same lobe or without MVI. Moreover, en bloc resection may be recommended for those with all lesions in the same lobe.

Is partial hepatectomy a curable treatment option for hepatocellular carcinoma accompanied by cirrhosis? A meta-analysis and cure model analysis

Backgrounds/Aims

It is challenging to assess the efficacy of partial hepatectomy (PH) as a treatment option for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) accompanied by cirrhosis. This study aimed to determine the cure fraction of PH for HCC accompanied by cirrhosis compared to that for HCC without cirrhosis.

Methods

A systematic review was performed on outcomes of previous studies that compared recurrence-free survival (RFS) after PH in patients with HCC with or without cirrhosis. A meta-analysis was conducted to obtain the cumulative hazard ratio for two patient groups: cirrhosis and non-cirrhosis. Cure fractions after PH in both groups were determined using a cure model analysis.

Results

A total of 18 studies were eligible for meta-analysis and 13 studies were selected for the cure model analysis. The cumulative hazard ratio for RFS of the cirrhosis group compared to that of the non-cirrhosis group was 1.66 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.43–1.93). Survival data of 3,512 patients in both groups were reconstructed from survival curves of original articles for cure model analysis. The probability of being statistically cured after PH for HCC was 14.1% (95% CI, 10.6%–18.1%) in the cirrhosis group lower than that (32.5%) in the non-cirrhosis group (95% CI, 28.6%–36.4%).

Conclusions

The prognosis after PH for HCC accompanied by cirrhosis is inferior to that for HCC without cirrhosis. However, a cure can be expected for one-seventh of patients with HCC accompanied by cirrhosis after PH.

Liver Cancer Survival: A Real World Observation of 45 Years with 32,556 Cases

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

To explore the long-term trend of liver cancer survival, based on the real-world data (RWD) in the past 45 years from a population-based cancer registry, in Qidong, China.

METHODS

A number of 32,556 patients with liver cancer were registered during the period of 1972 to 2016. Mixed methods by active and passive follow-up were performed. Life table method was employed for survival analysis by SPSS22 software. Wilcoxon (Gehan) statistics was considered as a significant test. Relative survival was calculated by using SURV software, and its annual percent change (APC) was estimated by the Joinpoint Regression Program.

RESULTS

The overall observed survival (OS) rates of 1-, 5-, 10-, and 20-year rates from the data series were 18.51%, 6.28%, 4.03%, and 2.84%, and their relative survival (RS) rates were 18.88%, 6.95%, 4.96%, and 4.49%, respectively. For 24,338 male cases, the 5-year OS and RS rates were 5.93% and 6.54%, and for 8218 female cases, 7.34% and 8.15%, respectively, with P values less than 0.01. Survival rates of liver cancer from three 15-year periods of 1972-1986, 1987-2001, and 2002-2016 have increased significantly, with 5-year OS rates of 2.02%, 4.40%, and 10.76%, 5-year RS rates of 2.18%, 4.83%, and 12.18%; 10-year OS and RS rates of 0.95%, 3.00%, and 7.02%, vs 1.13%, 3.65%, and 8.96%, respectively, showing a very significant upward trend (P<0.01). There are significant differences among age groups (P<0.01): those aged 55-64 demonstrated the best OS and RS rates of 5-year, being 8.44% and 9.09%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

There are significant gender and age differences in the survival rate of liver cancer in Qidong. RWD indicates the relative lower survival rate of liver cancer in this area, but great improvement has been achieved over the past decades.

Overall Tumor Burden Dictates Outcomes for Patients Undergoing Resection of Multinodular Hepatocellular Carcinoma Beyond the Milan Criteria

OBJECTIVE

The objective of the current study was to define surgical outcomes after resection of multinodular hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) beyond the Milan criteria, and develop a prediction tool to identify which patients likely benefit the most from resection.

BACKGROUND

Liver resection for multinodular HCC, especially beyond the Milan criteria, remains controversial. Rigorous selection of the best candidates for resection is essential to achieve optimal outcomes after liver resection of advanced tumors.

METHODS

Patients who underwent resection for HCC between 2000 and 2017 were identified from an international multi-institutional database. Patients were categorized according to Milan criteria status. Pre- and postoperative overall survival (OS) prediction models that included HCC tumor burden score (TBS) among patients with multinodular HCC beyond Milan criteria were developed and validated.

RESULTS

Among 1037 patients who underwent resection for HCC, 164 (15.8%) had multinodular HCC beyond the Milan criteria. Among patients with multinodular HCC, 25 (15.2%) patients experienced a serious complication and 90-day mortality was 3.7% (n = 6). Five-year OS after resection of multinodular HCC beyond Milan criteria was 52.8%. A preoperative TBS-based model (5-year OS: low-risk, 73.7% vs intermediate-risk, 45.1% vs high-risk, 13.1%), and postoperative TBS-based model (5-year OS: low-risk, 80.1% vs intermediate-risk, 37.2% vs high-risk, not reached) categorized patients into distinct prognostic groups relative to long-term prognosis (both P < 0.001). Pre- and postoperative models could accurately stratify OS in an external validation cohort (5-year OS; low vs medium vs high risk; pre: 66.3% vs 25.2% vs not reached, P = 0.012; post: 61.4% vs 42.5% vs not reached, P = 0.045) Predictive accuracy of the pre- and postoperative models was good in the training (c-index; pre: 0.68; post: 0.71), internal validation (n = 2000 resamples) (c-index, pre: 0.70; post: 0.72) and external validation (c-index, pre: 0.67; post 0.68) datasets. TBS alone could stratify patients relative to 5-year OS after resection of multinodular HCC beyond Milan criteria (c-index: 0.65; 5-year OS; low TBS: 70.2% vs medium TBS: 54.7% vs high TBS: 16.7%; P < 0.001). The vast majority of patients with low and intermediate TBS were deemed low or medium risk based on both the preoperative (98.4%) and postoperative risk scores (95.3%).

CONCLUSION

Prognosis of patients with multinodular HCC was largely dependent on overall tumor burden. Liver resection should be considered among patients with multinodular HCC beyond the Milan criteria who have a low- or intermediate-TBS.

IMbrave 050: a Phase III trial of atezolizumab plus bevacizumab in high-risk hepatocellular carcinoma after curative resection or ablation

Hepatocellular carcinoma recurs in 70-80% of cases following potentially curative resection or ablation and the immune component of the liver microenvironment plays a key role in recurrence. Many immunosuppressive mechanisms implicated in HCC recurrence are modulated by VEGF and/or immune checkpoints such as PD-L1. Atezolizumab (PD-L1 inhibitor) plus bevacizumab (VEGF inhibitor) has been shown to significantly improve overall survival, progression-free survival and overall response rate in unresectable HCC. Dual PD-L1/VEGF blockade may be effective in reducing HCC recurrence by creating a more immune-favorable microenvironment. We describe the rationale and design of IMbrave 050 (NCT04102098), a randomized, open-label, Phase III study comparing atezolizumab plus bevacizumab versus active surveillance in HCC patients at high-risk of recurrence following curative resection or ablation. The primary end point is recurrence-free survival. Clinical Trial Registration: NCT04102098.

Comparison of Partial Hepatectomy and Transarterial Chemoembolization in Intermediate-Stage Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

INTRODUCTION

According to the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) algorithm, transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is recommended in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) of intermediate stage (BCLC-B), whereas partial hepatectomy (PH) is restricted to early stage A. Expanding the indication for PH to intermediate stage remains debated.

OBJECTIVE

This meta-analysis aimed to analyze short- and long-term outcomes of PH compared to TACE in patients with intermediate-stage HCC.

METHODS

A meta-analysis was conducted according to PRISMA guidelines. Trials comparing PH with TACE in patients with intermediate-stage HCC were selected. Only patients of BCLC-B stage were included in the analyses. Primary endpoint was overall survival (OS) and secondary endpoint was 90-day postprocedural mortality. Random-effects models were used to analyze time ratios (TRs).

RESULTS

Seven eligible trials were analyzed, including 1,730 BCLC-B patients undergoing PH (n = 750) or TACE (n = 980). Comparison of OS between PH and TACE determined a pooled TR of 1.91 (95% CI 1.24-2.94; p < 0.001). Survival rates at 1-, 3-, and 5-year were 85, 60, and 42% after PH, compared to 73, 60, and 20% after TACE (p < 0.001). There was no difference in postprocedural mortality between PH and TACE with rates of 3.7 and 3.4%, respectively (TR 0.95; 95% CI 0.17-5.50; p = 0.879).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with intermediate HCC, PH was associated with increased long-term survival compared to TACE, with comparable postprocedural mortality. These results suggest considering PH as treatment option in intermediate HCC and highlight the urgent need to refine the selection of patients with BCLC-B stage who may benefit from PH.