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Lamba S, Das T, Srivastava PK. Impact of infectious density-induced additional screening and treatment saturation on COVID-19: Modeling and cost-effective optimal control. Infect Dis Model 2024; 9:569-600. [PMID: 38558959 PMCID: PMC10978547 DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2024.03.002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/06/2023] [Revised: 02/18/2024] [Accepted: 03/11/2024] [Indexed: 04/04/2024] Open
Abstract
This study introduces a novel SI2HR model, where "I2" denotes two infectious classes representing asymptomatic and symptomatic infections, aiming to investigate and analyze the cost-effective optimal control measures for managing COVID-19. The model incorporates a novel concept of infectious density-induced additional screening (IDIAS) and accounts for treatment saturation. Furthermore, the model considers the possibility of reinfection and the loss of immunity in individuals who have previously recovered. To validate and calibrate the proposed model, real data from November-December 2022 in Hong Kong are utilized. The estimated parameters obtained from this calibration process are valuable for prediction purposes and facilitate further numerical simulations. An analysis of the model reveals that delays in screening, treatment, and quarantine contribute to an increase in the basic reproduction number R0, indicating a tendency towards endemicity. In particular, from the elasticity of R0, we deduce that normalized sensitivity indices of baseline screening rate (θ), quarantine rates (γ, αs), and treatment rate (α) are negative, which shows that delaying any of these may cause huge surge in R0, ultimately increases the disease burden. Further, by the contour plots, we note the two-parameter behavior of the infectives (both symptomatic and asymptomatic). Expanding upon the model analysis, an optimal control problem (OCP) is formulated, incorporating three control measures: precautionary interventions, boosted IDIAS, and boosted treatment. The Pontryagin's maximum principle and the forward-backward sweep method are employed to solve the OCP. The numerical simulations highlight that enhanced screening and treatment, coupled with preventive interventions, can effectively contribute to sustainable disease control. However, the cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) conducted in this study suggests that boosting IDIAS alone is the most economically efficient and cost-effective approach compared to other strategies. The CEA results provide valuable insights into identifying specific strategies based on their cost-efficacy ranking, which can be implemented to maximize impact while minimizing costs. Overall, this research offers significant insights for policymakers and healthcare professionals, providing a framework to optimize control efforts for COVID-19 or similar epidemics in the future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sonu Lamba
- Department of Mathematics, Indian Institute of Technology Patna Bihta – 801106, Patna, Bihar, India
| | - Tanuja Das
- Department of Mathematics, Indian Institute of Technology Patna Bihta – 801106, Patna, Bihar, India
- Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of New Brunswick Fredericton, NB, E3B 5A3, Canada
| | - Prashant K. Srivastava
- Department of Mathematics, Indian Institute of Technology Patna Bihta – 801106, Patna, Bihar, India
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Lei H, Zhang N, Xiao S, Zhuang L, Yang X, Chen T, Yang L, Wang D, Li Y, Shu Y. Relative Role of Age Groups and Indoor Environments in Influenza Transmission Under Different Urbanization Rates in China. Am J Epidemiol 2024; 193:596-605. [PMID: 37946322 DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwad218] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/23/2022] [Revised: 06/20/2023] [Accepted: 11/01/2023] [Indexed: 11/12/2023] Open
Abstract
Exploring the relative role of different indoor environments in respiratory infections transmission remains unclear, which is crucial for developing targeted nonpharmaceutical interventions. In this study, a total of 2,583,441 influenza-like illness cases tested from 2010 to 2017 in China were identified. An agent-based model was built and calibrated with the surveillance data, to assess the roles of 3 age groups (children <19 years, younger adults 19-60 years, older adults >60 years) and 4 types of indoor environments (home, schools, workplaces, and community areas) in influenza transmission by province with varying urbanization rates. When the urbanization rates increased from 35% to 90%, the proportion of children aged <19 years among influenza cases decreased from 76% to 45%. Additionally, we estimated that infections originating from children decreased from 95.1% (95% confidence interval (CI): 92.7, 97.5) to 59.3% (95% CI: 49.8, 68.7). Influenza transmission in schools decreased from 80.4% (95% CI: 76.5, 84.3) to 36.6% (95% CI: 20.6, 52.5), while transmission in the community increased from 2.4% (95% CI: 1.9, 2.8) to 45.4% (95% CI: 35.9, 54.8). With increasing urbanization rates, community areas and younger adults contributed more to infection transmission. These findings could help the development of targeted public health policies. This article is part of a Special Collection on Environmental Epidemiology. This article is part of a Special Collection on Environmental Epidemiology.
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Hiep NT, Nguyen MK, Nhut HT, Hung NTQ, Manh NC, Lin C, Chang SW, Um MJ, Nguyen DD. A review on sterilization methods of environmental decontamination to prevent the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19 virus): A new challenge towards eco-friendly solutions. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 904:166021. [PMID: 37543323 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166021] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/09/2023] [Revised: 06/13/2023] [Accepted: 08/01/2023] [Indexed: 08/07/2023]
Abstract
In recent years, the COVID-19 pandemic is currently wreaking havoc on the planet. SARS-CoV-2, the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus, is the current term for this outbreak. Reports about this novel coronavirus have been presented since the pandemic's breakout, and they have demonstrated that it transmits rapidly from person to person, primarily by droplets in the air. Findings have illustrated that SARS-CoV-2 can survive on surfaces from hours to days. Therefore, it is essential to find practical solutions to reduce the virus's impact on human health and the environment. This work evaluated common sterilization methods that can decontaminate the environment and items. The goal is that healthcare facilities, disease prevention organizations, and local communities can overcome the new challenge of finding eco-friendly solutions. Further, a foundation of information encompassing various sterilization procedures and highlighting their limits to choose the most appropriate method to stop disease-causing viruses in the new context has been presented. The findings of this crucial investigation contribute to gaining insight into the comprehensive sterilization approaches against the coronavirus for human health protection and sustainable environmental development.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nguyen Trung Hiep
- Research Institute for Sustainable Development, Ho Chi Minh University of Natural Resources and Environment, 236B Le Van Sy, Ward 1, Tan Binh District, Ho Chi Minh City 700000, Viet Nam
| | - Minh-Ky Nguyen
- Faculty of Environment and Natural Resources, Nong Lam University, Linh Trung Ward, Thu Duc City, Ho Chi Minh City 700000, Viet Nam; Department of Marine Environmental Engineering, National Kaohsiung University of Science and Technology, Kaohsiung 81157, Taiwan
| | - Huynh Tan Nhut
- Faculty of Environment and Natural Resources, Nong Lam University, Linh Trung Ward, Thu Duc City, Ho Chi Minh City 700000, Viet Nam
| | - Nguyen Tri Quang Hung
- Faculty of Environment and Natural Resources, Nong Lam University, Linh Trung Ward, Thu Duc City, Ho Chi Minh City 700000, Viet Nam.
| | - Nguyen Cong Manh
- Department of Aquatic and Atmospheric Environment Research, Research Institute of Biotechnology and Environment, Nong Lam University, Ho Chi Minh City 700000, Viet Nam
| | - Chitsan Lin
- Department of Marine Environmental Engineering, National Kaohsiung University of Science and Technology, Kaohsiung 81157, Taiwan
| | - S Woong Chang
- Department of Civil & Energy System Engineering, Kyonggi University, Suwon 16227, South Korea
| | - Myoung Jin Um
- Department of Civil & Energy System Engineering, Kyonggi University, Suwon 16227, South Korea
| | - D Duc Nguyen
- Department of Civil & Energy System Engineering, Kyonggi University, Suwon 16227, South Korea; Faculty of Environmental and Food Engineering, Nguyen Tat Thanh University, 300A Nguyen Tat Thanh, District 4, Ho Chi Minh City 755414, Viet Nam.
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Thakkar K, Spinardi JR, Yang J, Kyaw MH, Ozbilgili E, Mendoza CF, Oh HML. Impact of vaccination and non-pharmacological interventions on COVID-19: a review of simulation modeling studies in Asia. Front Public Health 2023; 11:1252719. [PMID: 37818298 PMCID: PMC10560858 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1252719] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/04/2023] [Accepted: 09/07/2023] [Indexed: 10/12/2023] Open
Abstract
Introduction Epidemiological modeling is widely used to offer insights into the COVID-19 pandemic situation in Asia. We reviewed published computational (mathematical/simulation) models conducted in Asia that assessed impacts of pharmacological and non-pharmacological interventions against COVID-19 and their implications for vaccination strategy. Methods A search of the PubMed database for peer-reviewed, published, and accessible articles in English was performed up to November 2022 to capture studies in Asian populations based on computational modeling of outcomes in the COVID-19 pandemic. Extracted data included model type (mechanistic compartmental/agent-based, statistical, both), intervention type (pharmacological, non-pharmacological), and procedures for parameterizing age. Findings are summarized with descriptive statistics and discussed in terms of the evolving COVID-19 situation. Results The literature search identified 378 results, of which 59 met criteria for data extraction. China, Japan, and South Korea accounted for approximately half of studies, with fewer from South and South-East Asia. Mechanistic models were most common, either compartmental (61.0%), agent-based (1.7%), or combination (18.6%) models. Statistical modeling was applied less frequently (11.9%). Pharmacological interventions were examined in 59.3% of studies, and most considered vaccination, except one study of an antiviral treatment. Non-pharmacological interventions were also considered in 84.7% of studies. Infection, hospitalization, and mortality were outcomes in 91.5%, 30.5%, and 30.5% of studies, respectively. Approximately a third of studies accounted for age, including 10 that also examined mortality. Four of these studies emphasized benefits in terms of mortality from prioritizing older adults for vaccination under conditions of a limited supply; however, one study noted potential benefits to infection rates from early vaccination of younger adults. Few studies (5.1%) considered the impact of vaccination among children. Conclusion Early in the COVID-19 pandemic, non-pharmacological interventions helped to mitigate the health burden of COVID-19; however, modeling indicates that high population coverage of effective vaccines will complement and reduce reliance on such interventions. Thus, increasing and maintaining immunity levels in populations through regular booster shots, particularly among at-risk and vulnerable groups, including older adults, might help to protect public health. Future modeling efforts should consider new vaccines and alternative therapies alongside an evolving virus in populations with varied vaccination histories.
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Affiliation(s)
- Karan Thakkar
- Vaccine Medical Affairs, Emerging Markets, Pfizer Inc., Singapore, Singapore
| | | | - Jingyan Yang
- Vaccine Global Value and Access, Pfizer Inc., New York, NY, United States
| | - Moe H. Kyaw
- Vaccine Medical Affairs, Emerging Markets, Pfizer Inc., Reston, VA, United States
| | - Egemen Ozbilgili
- Asia Cluster Medical Affairs, Emerging Markets, Pfizer Inc., Singapore, Singapore
| | | | - Helen May Lin Oh
- Department of Infectious Diseases, Changi General Hospital, Singapore, Singapore
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Zhang N, Liu L, Dou Z, Liu X, Yang X, Miao D, Guo Y, Gu S, Li Y, Qian H, Wei J. Close contact behaviors of university and school students in 10 indoor environments. JOURNAL OF HAZARDOUS MATERIALS 2023; 458:132069. [PMID: 37463561 DOI: 10.1016/j.jhazmat.2023.132069] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/06/2023] [Revised: 05/24/2023] [Accepted: 07/13/2023] [Indexed: 07/20/2023]
Abstract
Close contact routes, including short-range airborne and large-droplet routes, play an important role in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in indoor environments. However, the exposure risk of such routes is difficult to quantify due to the lack of data on the close contact behavior of individuals. In this study, a digital wearable device, based on semi-supervised learning, was developed to automatically record human close contact behavior. We collected 337,056 s of indoor close contact of school and university students from 194.5 h of depth video recordings in 10 types of indoor environments. The correlation between aerosol exposure and close contact behaviors was then evaluated. Individuals in restaurants had the highest close contact ratio (64%), as well as the highest probability of face-to-face pattern (78%) during close contact. Accordingly, university students showed greater exposure potential in dormitories than school students in homes, however, a lower exposure was observed in classrooms and postgraduate student offices in comparison with school students in classrooms. In addition, restaurants had the highest aerosol exposure volume for both short-range inhalation and direct deposition on the facial mucosa. Thus, the classroom was established as the primary indoor environment where school students are exposed to aerosols.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nan Zhang
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Green Built Environment and Energy Efficient Technology, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
| | - Li Liu
- School of Architecture, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Zhiyang Dou
- Department of Computer Science, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Xiyue Liu
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Green Built Environment and Energy Efficient Technology, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
| | - Xueze Yang
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Green Built Environment and Energy Efficient Technology, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
| | - Doudou Miao
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Green Built Environment and Energy Efficient Technology, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
| | - Yong Guo
- Department of Building Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
| | - Silan Gu
- Thee First Affiliated Hospital, College of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China
| | - Yuguo Li
- Department of Mechanical Engineering, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China
| | - Hua Qian
- School of Energy and Environment, Southeast University, Nanjing, China
| | - Jianjian Wei
- Institute of Refrigeration and Cryogenics, Key Laboratory of Refrigeration and Cryogenic Technology of Zhejiang Province, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China.
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Yao XA, Crooks A, Jiang B, Krisp J, Liu X, Huang H. An overview of urban analytical approaches to combating the Covid-19 pandemic. ENVIRONMENT AND PLANNING. B, URBAN ANALYTICS AND CITY SCIENCE 2023; 50:1133-1143. [PMID: 38602958 PMCID: PMC10160829 DOI: 10.1177/23998083231174748] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 04/13/2024]
Affiliation(s)
- X Angela Yao
- Department of Geography, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA
| | - Andrew Crooks
- Department of Geography, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, USA
| | - Bin Jiang
- Urban Governance and Design Thrust, The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Guangzhou, China
| | - Jukka Krisp
- Institute of Geography, Applied Geoinformatics, Augsburg University, Germany
| | - Xintao Liu
- Department of Land Surveying and Geo-Informatics, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong SAR
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Zhang N, Hu T, Shang S, Zhang S, Jia W, Chen J, Zhang Z, Su B, Wang Z, Cheng R, Li Y. Local travel behaviour under continuing COVID-19 waves- A proxy for pandemic fatigue? TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH INTERDISCIPLINARY PERSPECTIVES 2023; 18:100757. [PMID: 36694823 PMCID: PMC9850857 DOI: 10.1016/j.trip.2023.100757] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/24/2022] [Revised: 01/06/2023] [Accepted: 01/14/2023] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
COVID-19 continues to threaten the world. Relaxing local travel behaviours on preventing the spread of COVID-19, may increase the infection risk in subsequent waves of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. In this study, we analysed changes in the travel behaviour of different population groups (adult, child, student, elderly) during four pandemic waves in Hong Kong before January 2021, by 4-billion second-by-second smartcard records of subway. A significant continuous relaxation in human travel behaviour was observed during the four waves of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Residents sharply reduced their local travel by 51.9%, 50.1%, 27.6%, and 20.5% from the first to fourth pandemic waves, respectively. The population flow in residential areas, workplaces, schools, shopping areas, amusement areas and border areas, decreased on average by 30.3%, 33.5%, 41.9%, 58.1%, 85.4% and 99.6%, respectively, during the pandemic weeks. We also found that many other cities around the world experienced a similar relaxation trend in local travel behaviour, by comparing traffic congestion data during the pandemic with data from the same period in 2019. The quantitative pandemic fatigue in local travel behaviour could help governments partially predicting personal protective behaviours, and thus to suggest more accurate interventions during subsequent waves, especially for highly infectious virus variants such as Omicron.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nan Zhang
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Green Built Environment and Energy Efficient Technology, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
| | - Tingrui Hu
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Green Built Environment and Energy Efficient Technology, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
| | - Shujia Shang
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Green Built Environment and Energy Efficient Technology, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
| | - Shiyao Zhang
- The Sifakis Research Institute for Trustworthy Autonomous Systems, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen 518055, China
| | - Wei Jia
- Department of Mechanical Engineering, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
| | - Jinhang Chen
- Faculty of Information Technology, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
| | - Zixuan Zhang
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Green Built Environment and Energy Efficient Technology, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
| | - Boni Su
- China Electric Power Planning & Engineering Institute, Beijing, China
| | - Zhenyu Wang
- College of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
| | - Reynold Cheng
- Department of Computer Science, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
| | - Yuguo Li
- Department of Mechanical Engineering, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
- School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China
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Zhang W, Liu S, Osgood N, Zhu H, Qian Y, Jia P. Using simulation modelling and systems science to help contain COVID-19: A systematic review. SYSTEMS RESEARCH AND BEHAVIORAL SCIENCE 2022; 40:SRES2897. [PMID: 36245570 PMCID: PMC9538520 DOI: 10.1002/sres.2897] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/27/2021] [Revised: 05/23/2022] [Accepted: 08/03/2022] [Indexed: 06/16/2023]
Abstract
This study systematically reviews applications of three simulation approaches, that is, system dynamics model (SDM), agent-based model (ABM) and discrete event simulation (DES), and their hybrids in COVID-19 research and identifies theoretical and application innovations in public health. Among the 372 eligible papers, 72 focused on COVID-19 transmission dynamics, 204 evaluated both pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions, 29 focused on the prediction of the pandemic and 67 investigated the impacts of COVID-19. ABM was used in 275 papers, followed by 54 SDM papers, 32 DES papers and 11 hybrid model papers. Evaluation and design of intervention scenarios are the most widely addressed area accounting for 55% of the four main categories, that is, the transmission of COVID-19, prediction of the pandemic, evaluation and design of intervention scenarios and societal impact assessment. The complexities in impact evaluation and intervention design demand hybrid simulation models that can simultaneously capture micro and macro aspects of the socio-economic systems involved.
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Affiliation(s)
- Weiwei Zhang
- Research Institute of Economics and ManagementSouthwestern University of Finance and EconomicsChengduChina
| | - Shiyong Liu
- Institute of Advanced Studies in Humanities and Social SciencesBeijing Normal University at ZhuhaiZhuhaiChina
| | - Nathaniel Osgood
- Department of Computer ScienceUniversity of SaskatchewanSaskatoonCanada
- Department of Community Health and EpidemiologyUniversity of SaskatchewanSaskatoonCanada
| | - Hongli Zhu
- Research Institute of Economics and ManagementSouthwestern University of Finance and EconomicsChengduChina
| | - Ying Qian
- Business SchoolUniversity of Shanghai for Science and TechnologyShanghaiChina
| | - Peng Jia
- School of Resource and Environmental SciencesWuhan UniversityWuhanHubeiChina
- International Institute of Spatial Lifecourse HealthWuhan UniversityWuhanHubeiChina
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Liu Y, Liao C, Zhuo L, Tao H. Evaluating Effects of Dynamic Interventions to Control COVID-19 Pandemic: A Case Study of Guangdong, China. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2022; 19:10154. [PMID: 36011787 PMCID: PMC9407938 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph191610154] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/06/2022] [Revised: 08/10/2022] [Accepted: 08/12/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
The emergence of different virus variants, the rapidly changing epidemic, and demands for economic recovery all require continual adjustment and optimization of COVID-19 intervention policies. For the purpose, it is both important and necessary to evaluate the effectiveness of different policies already in-place, which is the basis for optimization. Although some scholars have used epidemiological models, such as susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR), to perform evaluation, they might be inaccurate because those models often ignore the time-varying nature of transmission rate. This study proposes a new scheme to evaluate the efficiency of dynamic COVID-19 interventions using a new model named as iLSEIR-DRAM. First, we improved the traditional LSEIR model by adopting a five-parameter logistic function β(t) to depict the key parameter of transmission rate. Then, we estimated the parameters by using an adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, which combines delayed rejection and adaptive metropolis samplers (DRAM). Finally, we developed a new quantitative indicator to evaluate the efficiency of COVID-19 interventions, which is based on parameters in β(t) and considers both the decreasing degree of the transmission rate and the emerging time of the epidemic inflection point. This scheme was applied to seven cities in Guangdong Province. We found that the iLSEIR-DRAM model can retrace the COVID-19 transmission quite well, with the simulation accuracy being over 95% in all cities. The proposed indicator succeeds in evaluating the historical intervention efficiency and makes the efficiency comparable among different cities. The comparison results showed that the intervention policies implemented in Guangzhou is the most efficient, which is consistent with public awareness. The proposed scheme for efficiency evaluation in this study is easy to implement and may promote precise prevention and control of the COVID-19 epidemic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yuan Liu
- Guangdong Provincial Engineering Research Center for Public Security and Disaster, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510006, China
| | - Chuyao Liao
- Guangdong Provincial Engineering Research Center for Public Security and Disaster, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510006, China
| | - Li Zhuo
- Guangdong Provincial Engineering Research Center for Public Security and Disaster, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510006, China
- Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai 519000, China
| | - Haiyan Tao
- Guangdong Provincial Engineering Research Center for Public Security and Disaster, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510006, China
- Key Laboratory of Tropical Disease Control, Ministry of Education, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China
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10
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Hu T, Ji Y, Fei F, Zhu M, Jin T, Xue P, Zhang N. Optimization of COVID-19 prevention and control with low building energy consumption. BUILDING AND ENVIRONMENT 2022; 219:109233. [PMID: 35664635 PMCID: PMC9148426 DOI: 10.1016/j.buildenv.2022.109233] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/16/2022] [Revised: 05/23/2022] [Accepted: 05/23/2022] [Indexed: 05/20/2023]
Abstract
COVID-19 is a global threat. Non-pharmaceutical interventions were commonly adopted for COVID-19 prevention and control. However, during stable periods of the pandemic, energy would be inevitably wasted if all interventions were implemented. The study aims to reduce the building energy consumption when meet the demands of epidemic prevention and control under the stable period of COVID-19. Based on the improved Wells-Riley model considering dynamic quanta generation and pulmonary ventilation rate, we established the infection risk - equivalent fresh air volume - energy consumption model to analyze the infection risk and building energy consumption during different seasons and optimized the urban building energy consumption according to the spatio-temporal population distribution. Shopping centers and restaurants contributed the most in urban energy consumption, and if they are closed during the pandemic, the total infection risk would be reduced by 25%-40% and 15%-25% respectively and the urban energy consumption would be reduced by 30%-40% and 13%-20% respectively. If people wore masks in all public indoor environments (exclude restaurants and KTV), the infection risk could be reduced by 60%-70% and the energy consumption could be reduced by 20%-60%. Gyms pose the highest risk for COVID-19 transmission. If the energy consumption kept the same with the current value, after the optimization, infection risk in winter, summer and the transition season could be reduced by 65%, 53% and 60%, respectively. After the optimization, under the condition of R t < 1, the energy consumption in winter, summer, and the transition season could be reduced by 72%, 64%, and 68% respectively.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tingrui Hu
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Green Built Environment and Energy Efficient Technology, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
| | - Ying Ji
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Green Built Environment and Energy Efficient Technology, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
| | - Fan Fei
- College of Mechatronical and Electrical Engineering, Hebei Agricultural University, Hebei province, China
| | - Min Zhu
- 6th Medical Center of General Hospital of PLA, Beijing, China
| | - Tianyi Jin
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Green Built Environment and Energy Efficient Technology, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
| | - Peng Xue
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Green Built Environment and Energy Efficient Technology, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
| | - Nan Zhang
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Green Built Environment and Energy Efficient Technology, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
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11
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Qiu Z, Sun Y, He X, Wei J, Zhou R, Bai J, Du S. Application of genetic algorithm combined with improved SEIR model in predicting the epidemic trend of COVID-19, China. Sci Rep 2022; 12:8910. [PMID: 35618751 PMCID: PMC9133826 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-022-12958-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/09/2021] [Accepted: 05/17/2022] [Indexed: 01/23/2023] Open
Abstract
Since the outbreak of the 2019 Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) at the end of 2019, it has caused great adverse effects on the whole world, and it has been hindering the global economy. It is ergent to establish an infectious disease model for the current COVID-19 epidemic to predict the trend of the epidemic. Based on the SEIR model, the improved SEIR models were established with considering the incubation period, the isolated population, and genetic algorithm (GA) parameter optimization method. The improved SEIR models can predict the trend of the epidemic situation better and obtain the more accurate epidemic-related parameters. Comparing some key parameters, it is capable to evaluate the impact of different epidemic prevention measures and the implementation of different epidemic prevention levels on the COVID-19, which has significant guidance for further epidemic prevention measures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhenzhen Qiu
- School of Chinese Materia Medica, Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, Beijing, 102488, China
| | - Youyi Sun
- School of Chinese Materia Medica, Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, Beijing, 102488, China
| | - Xuan He
- School of Chinese Materia Medica, Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, Beijing, 102488, China
| | - Jing Wei
- School of Chinese Materia Medica, Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, Beijing, 102488, China
| | - Rui Zhou
- School of Chinese Materia Medica, Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, Beijing, 102488, China.
| | - Jie Bai
- School of Chinese Materia Medica, Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, Beijing, 102488, China
| | - Shouying Du
- School of Chinese Materia Medica, Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, Beijing, 102488, China
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12
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Guo Y, Zhang N, Hu T, Wang Z, Zhang Y. Optimization of energy efficiency and COVID-19 pandemic control in different indoor environments. ENERGY AND BUILDINGS 2022; 261:111954. [PMID: 35185270 PMCID: PMC8848536 DOI: 10.1016/j.enbuild.2022.111954] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/24/2021] [Revised: 01/23/2022] [Accepted: 02/12/2022] [Indexed: 05/11/2023]
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has led to considerable morbidity and mortality, and consumed enormous resources (e.g. energy) to control and prevent the disease. It is crucial to balance infection risk and energy consumption when reducing the spread of infection. In this study, a quantitative human, behavior-based, infection risk-energy consumption model for different indoor environments was developed. An optimal balance point for each indoor environment can be obtained using the anti-problem method. For this study we selected Wangjing Block, one of the most densely populated places in Beijing, as an example. Under the current ventilation standard (30 m3/h/person), prevention and control of the COVID-19 pandemic would be insufficient because the basic reproduction number (R0 ) for students, workers and elders are greater than 1. The optimal required fresh air ventilation rates in most indoor environments are near or below 60 m3/h/person, after considering the combined effects of multiple mitigation measures. In residences, sports buildings and restaurants, the demand for fresh air ventilation rate is relatively high. After our global optimization of infection risk control (R0 ≤ 1), energy consumption can be reduced by 13.7% and 45.1% on weekdays and weekends, respectively, in contrast to a strategy of strict control (R0 = 1 for each indoor environment).
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Affiliation(s)
- Yong Guo
- Department of Building Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Indoor Air Quality Evaluation and Control, Beijing, China
| | - Nan Zhang
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Green Built Environment and Energy Efficient Technology, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
| | - Tingrui Hu
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Green Built Environment and Energy Efficient Technology, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
| | - Zhenyu Wang
- College of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
| | - Yinping Zhang
- Department of Building Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Indoor Air Quality Evaluation and Control, Beijing, China
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Abstract
COVID-19 has threatened human lives. Countries have implemented various interventions such as vaccination, mask-wearing, body temperature screening, and isolation. However, the effectiveness of single and combined interventions has not yet been accurately analyzed. In this study, an improved SEIR model considering both real human indoor close contact behaviors and susceptibility to COVID-19 was established. Taking Hong Kong as an example, a quantitative assessment of the relationship between the efficiency of single and combined interventions and implementation time and intensity was carried out. The results showed that the infection risk (one-hour close contact with an infected person) of COVID-19 of students, workers, and non-workers/non-students was 3.1%, 8.7%, and 13.6%, respectively. Workplace closures were more effective among built environment interventions. If mask-wearing was mandatorily required in schools, workplaces, supermarkets, shopping centers, and public transport, COVID-19 could not be totally restricted. Workers should be prioritized for vaccination, followed by non-workers/non-students and students. Among all interventions, reducing close contact rate and increasing vaccination rate were better interventions. There was no COVID-19 outbreak (basic reproduction number R0 = 1) if the close contact reduction rate was 59.9% or the vaccination rate reached 89.5%. The results may provide scientific support for COVID-19 prevention and control.
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Zhang S, Chen S, Xiao G, Zhao M, Li J, Dong W, Hu J, Yuan T, Li Y, Liu L. The associations between air pollutant exposure and neutralizing antibody titers of an inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH INTERNATIONAL 2022; 29:13720-13728. [PMID: 34599446 PMCID: PMC8486374 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-021-16786-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/29/2021] [Accepted: 09/23/2021] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Air pollution is a critical risk factor for the prevalence of COVID-19. However, few studies have focused on whether air pollution affects the efficacy of the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. To better guide the knowledge surrounding this vaccination, we conducted a cross-section study to identify the relationships between air pollutant exposure and plasma neutralizing antibody (NAb) titers of an inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccine (Vero cell, CoronaVac, SINOVΛC, China). We recruited 239 healthcare workers aged 21-50 years who worked at Suining Central Hospital. Of these, 207 were included in this study, depending on vaccination date. The data regarding air pollutants were collected to calculate individual daily exposure dose (DED). The geometric mean of all six pollutant DEDs was applied to estimate the combined toxic effects (DEDcomplex). Then, the participants were divided into two groups based on the mean value of DEDcomplex. The median plasma NAb titer was 12.81 AU/mL, with 85.99% vaccine efficacy in healthcare workers against SARS-CoV-2. In exposure group, observations included lower plasma NAb titers (median: 11.13 AU/mL vs. 14.56 AU/mL), more peripheral counts of white blood cells and monocytes (mean: 6.71 × 109/L vs. 6.29 × 109/L and 0.49 × 109/L vs. 0.40 × 109/L, respectively), and a higher peripheral monocyte ratio (7.38% vs. 6.50%) as compared to the reference group. In addition, elevated air pollutant DEDs were associated with decreased plasma NAb titers. To our knowledge, this study is the first to report the relationship between air pollutant exposure and plasma NAb titers of the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. This suggests that long-term exposure to air pollutants may inhibit plasma NAb expression by inducing chronic inflammation. Therefore, to achieve early herd immunity and hopefully curb the COVID-19 epidemic, vaccinations should be administered promptly to those eligible, and environmental factors should be considered as well.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shaocheng Zhang
- Department of Clinical Laboratory Medicine, Suining Central Hospital, 127 Deshengxi Rd., Suining, 629000, Sichuan, People's Republic of China.
| | - Shu Chen
- Department of Clinical Laboratory Medicine, Suining Central Hospital, 127 Deshengxi Rd., Suining, 629000, Sichuan, People's Republic of China
| | - Guangjun Xiao
- Department of Clinical Laboratory Medicine, Suining Central Hospital, 127 Deshengxi Rd., Suining, 629000, Sichuan, People's Republic of China
| | - Mingcai Zhao
- Department of Clinical Laboratory Medicine, Suining Central Hospital, 127 Deshengxi Rd., Suining, 629000, Sichuan, People's Republic of China
| | - Jia Li
- Department of Clinical Laboratory Medicine, Suining Central Hospital, 127 Deshengxi Rd., Suining, 629000, Sichuan, People's Republic of China
| | - Wenjuan Dong
- Department of Public Health Administration and Health Education, Suining Central Hospital, Suining, 629000, Sichuan, People's Republic of China
| | - Juan Hu
- Department of Clinical Laboratory Medicine, Suining Central Hospital, 127 Deshengxi Rd., Suining, 629000, Sichuan, People's Republic of China
| | - Tianqi Yuan
- Maccura Biotechnology Co. Ltd., Chengdu, 611731, Sichuan, People's Republic of China
| | - Yong Li
- Maccura Biotechnology Co. Ltd., Chengdu, 611731, Sichuan, People's Republic of China
| | - Lianghua Liu
- Department of Clinical Laboratory Medicine, Suining Central Hospital, 127 Deshengxi Rd., Suining, 629000, Sichuan, People's Republic of China
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Zhang N, Lei H, Li L, Jin T, Liu X, Miao D, Su B, Bu Z, Fan L, Xue P, Xie J, Li Y. COVID-19 Vaccination Did Not Change the Personal Protective Behaviors of Healthcare Workers in China. Front Public Health 2022; 9:777426. [PMID: 34993170 PMCID: PMC8724136 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2021.777426] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/15/2021] [Accepted: 11/30/2021] [Indexed: 01/01/2023] Open
Abstract
Personal protective behaviors of healthcare workers (HCWs) and dynamic changes in them are known to play a major role in the hospital transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). In this study, 1,499 HCWs in Chinese hospitals completed an online survey about their knowledge on SARS-CoV-2 transmission and their personal protective behaviors before and after coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination. Of all the respondents, 89% were vaccinated at the time of the survey and 96% believed that the vaccine was effective or highly effective. Further, 88% of the vaccinated HCWs expressed that they would get revaccinated if the vaccination failed. Compared with HCWs with a lower education level, those with a higher education level had less fear of being infected with SARS-CoV-2 and reported a lower negative impact of the pandemic on how they treated patients. Physicians and nurses were willing to believe that short-range airborne and long-range fomite are possible transmission routes. HCWs with a higher education level had a better knowledge of COVID-19 but worse personal protective behaviors. The fact that HCWs with a longer work experience had worse personal protective behaviors showed that HCWs gradually relax their personal protective behaviors over time. Moreover, vaccination reduced the negative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on how the HCWs treated patients. Importantly, the survey revealed that after vaccination, HCWs in China did not relax their personal protective behaviors, and it may bring a low potential risk for following waves of variant virus (e.g., delta).
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Affiliation(s)
- Nan Zhang
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Green Built Environment and Energy Efficient Technology, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
| | - Hao Lei
- School of Public Health, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China
| | - Li Li
- China CDC Key Laboratory of Environment and Population Health, National Institute of Environmental Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Tianyi Jin
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Green Built Environment and Energy Efficient Technology, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
| | - Xiyue Liu
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Green Built Environment and Energy Efficient Technology, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
| | - Doudou Miao
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Green Built Environment and Energy Efficient Technology, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
| | - Boni Su
- Department of Clean Energy Research, China Electric Power Planning and Engineering Institute, Beijing, China
| | - Zhongming Bu
- Department of Energy and Environmental System Engineering, Zhejiang University of Science and Technology, Hangzhou, China
| | - Lin Fan
- China CDC Key Laboratory of Environment and Population Health, National Institute of Environmental Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Peng Xue
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Green Built Environment and Energy Efficient Technology, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
| | - Jingchao Xie
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Green Built Environment and Energy Efficient Technology, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
| | - Yuguo Li
- Department of Mechanical Engineering, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam, Hong Kong SAR, China.,School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam, Hong Kong SAR, China
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Zhang N, Liu X, Jin T, Zhao P, Miao D, Lei H, Su B, Xue P, Xie J, Li Y. Weakening personal protective behavior by Chinese university students after COVID-19 vaccination. BUILDING AND ENVIRONMENT 2021; 206:108367. [PMID: 34566244 PMCID: PMC8450227 DOI: 10.1016/j.buildenv.2021.108367] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/11/2021] [Revised: 09/14/2021] [Accepted: 09/15/2021] [Indexed: 05/14/2023]
Abstract
Personal protective behaviors and their dynamic change are known to play a major role in the community spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the causal pathogen of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. In this study, a total of 3229 students in Chinese universities completed an online survey about their knowledge on transmission and personal protective behavior before and after COVID-19 vaccination. Of the respondents, 87.6% had been vaccinated. Most students believed that the large droplet (97.0%) and short-range airborne (89.3%) routes were the two most likely SARS-CoV-2 transmission routes, whereas only 24.1% considered long-range airborne transmission to be possible. Students who would be expected to possess better knowledge about virus transmission (e.g., students of medicine) reported better personal protective behaviors. Female students reported relatively better personal hygiene practices than male students, so did the confident students than their diffident peers. Students washed their hands on average of 5.76 times per day during the pandemic. Students at universities in southern regions washed their hands more frequently but paid less attention to indoor ventilation than did their northern counterparts. Interestingly, students who are fear of being infected had the bad personal hygiene. University students wore 22% less masks in public indoor environments after vaccination. Chinese university students weakened their personal protective behavior after vaccination and it may increase the potential risk of infection in the new waves of variant virus (e.g. delta).
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Affiliation(s)
- Nan Zhang
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Green Built Environment and Energy Efficient Technology, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
| | - Xiyue Liu
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Green Built Environment and Energy Efficient Technology, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
| | - Tianyi Jin
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Green Built Environment and Energy Efficient Technology, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
| | - Pengcheng Zhao
- Department of Mechanical Engineering, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, SAR, China
| | - Doudou Miao
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Green Built Environment and Energy Efficient Technology, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
| | - Hao Lei
- School of Public Health, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China
| | - Boni Su
- China Electric Power Planning & Engineering Institute, Beijing, China
| | - Peng Xue
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Green Built Environment and Energy Efficient Technology, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
| | - Jingchao Xie
- Beijing Key Laboratory of Green Built Environment and Energy Efficient Technology, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, China
| | - Yuguo Li
- Department of Mechanical Engineering, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, SAR, China
- School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, SAR, China
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Mollalo A, Mohammadi A, Mavaddati S, Kiani B. Spatial Analysis of COVID-19 Vaccination: A Scoping Review. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2021; 18:12024. [PMID: 34831801 PMCID: PMC8624385 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph182212024] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/06/2021] [Revised: 11/09/2021] [Accepted: 11/10/2021] [Indexed: 01/01/2023]
Abstract
Spatial analysis of COVID-19 vaccination research is increasing in recent literature due to the availability of COVID-19 vaccination data that usually contain location components. However, to our knowledge, no previous study has provided a comprehensive review of this research area. Therefore, in this scoping review, we examined the breadth of spatial and spatiotemporal vaccination studies to summarize previous findings, highlight research gaps, and provide guidelines for future research. We performed this review according to the five-stage methodological framework developed by Arksey and O'Malley. We screened all articles published in PubMed/MEDLINE, Scopus, and Web of Science databases, as of 21 September 2021, that had employed at least one form of spatial analysis of COVID-19 vaccination. In total, 36 articles met the inclusion criteria and were organized into four main themes: disease surveillance (n = 35); risk analysis (n = 14); health access (n = 16); and community health profiling (n = 2). Our findings suggested that most studies utilized preliminary spatial analysis techniques, such as disease mapping, which might not lead to robust inferences. Moreover, few studies addressed data quality, modifiable areal unit problems, and spatial dependence, highlighting the need for more sophisticated spatial and spatiotemporal analysis techniques.
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Affiliation(s)
- Abolfazl Mollalo
- Department of Public Health and Prevention Science, School of Health Sciences, Baldwin Wallace University, Berea, OH 44017, USA;
| | - Alireza Mohammadi
- Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil 56199, Iran;
| | - Sara Mavaddati
- Faculty of Medicine & Surgery, Policlinic University Hospital of Bari Aldo Moro, 70124 Bari, Italy;
| | - Behzad Kiani
- Department of Medical Informatics, School of Medicine, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad 91779, Iran
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