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Choi J, Henze DK, Nawaz MO, Malley CS. Source Attribution of Health Burdens From Ambient PM 2.5, O 3, and NO 2 Exposure for Assessment of South Korean National Emission Control Scenarios by 2050. GEOHEALTH 2024; 8:e2024GH001042. [PMID: 39099758 PMCID: PMC11297529 DOI: 10.1029/2024gh001042] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/23/2024] [Revised: 05/28/2024] [Accepted: 07/04/2024] [Indexed: 08/06/2024]
Abstract
We quantify anthropogenic sources of health burdens associated with ambient air pollution exposure in South Korea and forecast future health burdens using domestic emission control scenarios by 2050 provided by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). Our health burden estimation framework uses GEOS-Chem simulations, satellite-derived NO2, and ground-based observations of PM2.5, O3, and NO2. We estimate 19,000, 3,300, and 8,500 premature deaths owing to long-term exposure to PM2.5, O3, and NO2, respectively, and 23,000 NO2-associated childhood asthma incidences in 2016. Next, we calculate anthropogenic emission contributions to these four health burdens from each species and grid cell using adjoint sensitivity analysis. Domestic sources account for 56%, 38%, 87%, and 88% of marginal emission contributions to the PM2.5-, O3-, and NO2-associated premature deaths and the NO2-associated childhood asthma incidences, respectively. We project health burdens to 2050 using UNEP domestic emission scenarios (Baseline and Mitigation) and population forecasts from Statistics Korea. Because of population aging alone, there are 41,000, 10,000, and 20,000 more premature deaths associated with PM2.5, O3, and NO2 exposure, respectively, and 9,000 fewer childhood asthma incidences associated with NO2. The Mitigation scenario doubles the NO2-associated health benefits over the Baseline scenario, preventing 24,000 premature deaths and 13,000 childhood asthma incidences by 2050. It also slightly reduces PM2.5- and O3-associated premature deaths by 9.9% and 7.0%, unlike the Baseline scenario where these pollutants increase. Furthermore, we examine foreign emission impacts from nine SSP/RCP-based scenarios, highlighting the need for international cooperation to reduce PM2.5 and O3 pollution.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jinkyul Choi
- Environmental Engineering ProgramUniversity of ColoradoBoulderCOUSA
| | - Daven K. Henze
- Department of Mechanical EngineeringUniversity of ColoradoBoulderCOUSA
| | - M. Omar Nawaz
- Environmental and Occupational Health DepartmentMilken Institute School of Public Health, George Washington UniversityWashingtonDCUSA
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Yu Y, Tang Z, Huang Y, Zhang J, Wang Y, Zhang Y, Wang Q. Assessing long-term effects of gaseous air pollution exposure on mortality in the United States using a variant of difference-in-differences analysis. Sci Rep 2024; 14:16220. [PMID: 39003417 PMCID: PMC11246484 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-66951-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/09/2024] [Accepted: 07/05/2024] [Indexed: 07/15/2024] Open
Abstract
Long-term mortality effects of particulate air pollution have been investigated in a causal analytic frame, while causal evidence for associations with gaseous air pollutants remains extensively lacking, especially for carbon monoxide (CO) and sulfur dioxide (SO2). In this study, we estimated the causal relationship of long-term exposure to nitrogen dioxide (NO2), CO, SO2, and ozone (O3) with mortality. Utilizing the data from National Morbidity, Mortality, and Air Pollution Study, we applied a variant of difference-in-differences (DID) method with conditional Poisson regression and generalized weighted quantile sum regression (gWQS) to investigate the independent and joint effects. Independent exposures to NO2, CO, and SO2 were causally associated with increased risks of total, nonaccidental, and cardiovascular mortality, while no evident associations with O3 were identified in the entire population. In gWQS analyses, an interquartile range-equivalent increase in mixture exposure was associated with a relative risk of 1.067 (95% confidence interval: 1.010-1.126) for total mortality, 1.067 (1.009-1.128) for nonaccidental mortality, and 1.125 (1.060-1.193) for cardiovascular mortality, where NO2 was identified as the most significant contributor to the overall effect. This nationwide DID analysis provided causal evidence for independent and combined effects of NO2, CO, SO2, and O3 on increased mortality risks among the US general population.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yong Yu
- Center of Health Administration and Development Studies, School of Public Health, Hubei University of Medicine, Shiyan, 442000, China
| | - Ziqing Tang
- Institute of Social Development and Health Management, Hubei Province Key Laboratory of Occupational Hazard Identification and Control, School of Public Health, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430065, China
| | - Yuqian Huang
- Institute of Social Development and Health Management, Hubei Province Key Laboratory of Occupational Hazard Identification and Control, School of Public Health, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430065, China
| | - Jingjing Zhang
- Institute of Social Development and Health Management, Hubei Province Key Laboratory of Occupational Hazard Identification and Control, School of Public Health, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430065, China
| | - Yixiang Wang
- Institute of Social Development and Health Management, Hubei Province Key Laboratory of Occupational Hazard Identification and Control, School of Public Health, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430065, China
| | - Yunquan Zhang
- Center of Health Administration and Development Studies, School of Public Health, Hubei University of Medicine, Shiyan, 442000, China.
- Institute of Social Development and Health Management, Hubei Province Key Laboratory of Occupational Hazard Identification and Control, School of Public Health, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430065, China.
| | - Qun Wang
- Center of Health Administration and Development Studies, School of Public Health, Hubei University of Medicine, Shiyan, 442000, China.
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Liu C, Zhang B, Liu C, Zhang Y, Zhao K, Zhang P, Tian M, Lu Z, Guo X, Jia X. Association of ambient ozone exposure and greenness exposure with hemorrhagic stroke mortality at different times: A cohort study in Shandong Province, China. ECOTOXICOLOGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL SAFETY 2024; 278:116356. [PMID: 38678691 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecoenv.2024.116356] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/04/2024] [Revised: 04/17/2024] [Accepted: 04/19/2024] [Indexed: 05/01/2024]
Abstract
Evidence on the association between long-term ozone exposure and greenness exposure and hemorrhagic stroke (HS) is limited, with mixed results. One potential source of this inconsistency is the difference in exposure time metrics. This study aimed to investigate the association between long-term exposure to ambient ozone, greenness, and mortality from HS using exposure metrics at different times. We also examined whether greenness exposure modified the relationship between ozone exposure and mortality due to HS. The study population consisted of 45771 participants aged ≥40 y residing in 20 counties in Shandong Province who were followed up from 2013 to 2019. Ozone exposure metrics (annual mean and warm season) and the normalized difference a measure of greenness exposure, were calculated. The relationship between environmental exposures (ozone and greenness exposures) and mortality from HS was assessed using time-dependent Cox proportional hazards models, and the modification of greenness exposure was examined using stratified analysis with interaction terms. The person-years at the end of follow-up were 90,663. With full adjustments, the risk of death from hemorrhagic stroke increased by 5% per interquartile range increase in warm season ozone [hazard ratio =1.05; 95 % confidence interval: 1.01-1.08]. No clear association was observed between annual ozone and mortality HS. Both the annual and summer NDVI were found to reduce the risk of HS mortality. The relationships were influenced by age, sex, and residence (urban or rural). Furthermore, greenness exposure was shown to have a modifying effect on the relationship between ozone exposure and the occurrence of HS mortality (P for interaction = 0.001). Long-term exposure to warm season O3 was positively associated with HS mortality, while greenness exposure was inversely associated with HS mortality. Greenness exposure may mitigate the negative effects of warm season ozone exposure on HS mortality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chengrong Liu
- Department of Epidemiology and Statistics, Bengbu Medical University, Bengbu, China
| | - Bingyin Zhang
- Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan, China
| | - Chao Liu
- Department of Epidemiology and Statistics, Bengbu Medical University, Bengbu, China
| | - Yingying Zhang
- Department of Epidemiology and Statistics, Bengbu Medical University, Bengbu, China
| | - Ke Zhao
- Department of Epidemiology and Statistics, Bengbu Medical University, Bengbu, China
| | - Peiyao Zhang
- Department of Epidemiology and Statistics, Bengbu Medical University, Bengbu, China
| | - Meihui Tian
- Department of Epidemiology and Statistics, Bengbu Medical University, Bengbu, China
| | - Zilong Lu
- Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan, China
| | - Xiaolei Guo
- Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan, China.
| | - Xianjie Jia
- Department of Epidemiology and Statistics, Bengbu Medical University, Bengbu, China.
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Du X, Chen R, Kan H. Challenges of Air Pollution and Health in East Asia. Curr Environ Health Rep 2024; 11:89-101. [PMID: 38321318 DOI: 10.1007/s40572-024-00433-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 01/27/2024] [Indexed: 02/08/2024]
Abstract
PURPOSE OF REVIEW Air pollution has been a serious environmental and public health issue worldwide, particularly in Asian countries. There have been significant increases in epidemiological studies on fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone pollution in East Asia, and an in-depth review of epidemiological evidence is urgent. Thus, we carried out a systematic review of the epidemiological research on PM2.5 and ozone pollution in East Asia released in recent years. RECENT FINDINGS Recent studies have indicated that PM2.5 and ozone are the most detrimental air pollutants to human health, resulting in substantial disease burdens for Asian populations. Many epidemiological studies of PM2.5 and ozone have been mainly performed in three East Asian countries (China, Japan, and South Korea). We derived the following summary findings: (1) both short-term and long-term exposure to PM2.5 and ozone could raise the risks of mortality and morbidity, emphasizing the need for continuing improvements in air quality in East Asia; (2) the long-term associations between PM2.5 and mortality in East Asia are comparable to those observed in Europe and North America, whereas the short-term associations are relatively smaller in magnitude; and (3) further cohort and intervention studies are required to yield robust and precise evidence that can promote evidence-based policymaking in East Asia. This updated review presented an outline of the health impacts of PM2.5 and ozone in East Asia, which may be beneficial for the development of future regulatory policies and standards, as well as for designing subsequent investigations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xihao Du
- School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education and NHC Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment, Shanghai Institute of Infectious Disease and Biosecurity, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200032, China
| | - Renjie Chen
- School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education and NHC Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment, Shanghai Institute of Infectious Disease and Biosecurity, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200032, China.
| | - Haidong Kan
- School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education and NHC Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment, Shanghai Institute of Infectious Disease and Biosecurity, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200032, China.
- Children's Hospital of Fudan University, National Center for Children's Health, Shanghai, China.
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Byun G, Kim S, Choi Y, Kim A, Team AC, Lee JT, Bell ML. Long-term exposure to PM 2.5 and mortality in a national cohort in South Korea: effect modification by community deprivation, medical infrastructure, and greenness. BMC Public Health 2024; 24:1266. [PMID: 38720292 PMCID: PMC11080206 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-024-18752-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/28/2023] [Accepted: 04/30/2024] [Indexed: 05/12/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Long-term exposure to PM2.5 has been linked to increased mortality risk. However, limited studies have examined the potential modifying effect of community-level characteristics on this association, particularly in Asian contexts. This study aimed to estimate the effects of long-term exposure to PM2.5 on mortality in South Korea and to examine whether community-level deprivation, medical infrastructure, and greenness modify these associations. METHODS We conducted a nationwide cohort study using the National Health Insurance Service-National Sample Cohort. A total of 394,701 participants aged 30 years or older in 2006 were followed until 2019. Based on modelled PM2.5 concentrations, 1 to 3-year and 5-year moving averages of PM2.5 concentrations were assigned to each participant at the district level. Time-varying Cox proportional-hazards models were used to estimate the association between PM2.5 and non-accidental, circulatory, and respiratory mortality. We further conducted stratified analysis by community-level deprivation index, medical index, and normalized difference vegetation index to represent greenness. RESULTS PM2.5 exposure, based on 5-year moving averages, was positively associated with non-accidental (Hazard ratio, HR: 1.10, 95% Confidence Interval, CI: 1.01, 1.20, per 10 µg/m3 increase) and circulatory mortality (HR: 1.22, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.47). The 1-year moving average of PM2.5 was associated with respiratory mortality (HR: 1.33, 95% CI: 1.05, 1.67). We observed higher associations between PM2.5 and mortality in communities with higher deprivation and limited medical infrastructure. Communities with higher greenness showed lower risk for circulatory mortality but higher risk for respiratory mortality in association with PM2.5. CONCLUSIONS Our study found mortality effects of long-term PM2.5 exposure and underlined the role of community-level factors in modifying these association. These findings highlight the importance of considering socio-environmental contexts in the design of air quality policies to reduce health disparities and enhance overall public health outcomes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Garam Byun
- School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT, 06511, USA
- Interdisciplinary Program in Precision Public Health, Department of Public Health Sciences, Graduate School of Korea University, Seoul, 02841, Republic of Korea
| | - Sera Kim
- Interdisciplinary Program in Precision Public Health, Department of Public Health Sciences, Graduate School of Korea University, Seoul, 02841, Republic of Korea
| | - Yongsoo Choi
- School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT, 06511, USA
| | - Ayoung Kim
- Department of Public Health Sciences, Graduate School of Public health, Seoul National University, 1 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul, 08826, Republic of Korea
| | - AiMS-Create Team
- Ai-Machine learning Statistics Collaborative Research Ensemble for Air pollution, Temperature, and all types of Environmental exposures, Seoul National University and Pusan National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
| | - Jong-Tae Lee
- Interdisciplinary Program in Precision Public Health, Department of Public Health Sciences, Graduate School of Korea University, Seoul, 02841, Republic of Korea.
- School of Health Policy and Management, College of Health Sciences, Korea University, Hana Science Hall, 145, Anam-ro, Seongbuk-gu, Seoul, 02841, Republic of Korea.
| | - Michelle L Bell
- School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven, CT, 06511, USA
- School of Health Policy and Management, College of Health Sciences, Korea University, Hana Science Hall, 145, Anam-ro, Seongbuk-gu, Seoul, 02841, Republic of Korea
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Peng M, Zhang F, Yuan Y, Yang Z, Wang K, Wang Y, Tang Z, Zhang Y. Long-term ozone exposure and all-cause mortality: Cohort evidence in China and global heterogeneity by region. ECOTOXICOLOGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL SAFETY 2024; 270:115843. [PMID: 38141337 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecoenv.2023.115843] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/09/2023] [Revised: 12/05/2023] [Accepted: 12/14/2023] [Indexed: 12/25/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Cohort evidence linking long-term ozone (O3) exposure to mortality remained largely mixed worldwide and was extensively deficient in densely-populated Asia. This study aimed to assess the long-term effects of O3 exposure on all-cause mortality among Chinese adults, as well as to examine potential regional heterogeneity across the globe. METHODS A national dynamic cohort of 42153 adults aged 16+ years were recruited from 25 provinces across Chinese mainland and followed up during 2010-2018. Annual warm-season (April-September) O3 and year-round co-pollutants (i.e., nitrogen dioxide [NO2] and fine particulate matter [PM2.5]) were simulated through validated spatial-temporal prediction models and were assigned to each enrollee in each calendar year. Cox proportional hazards models with time-varying exposures were employed to assess the O3-mortality association. Concentration-response (C-R) curves were fitted by natural cubic spline function to investigate the potential nonlinear association. Both single-pollutant model and co-pollutant models additionally adjusting for PM2.5 and/or NO2 were employed to examine the robustness of the estimated association. The random-effect meta-analysis was adopted to pool effect estimates from the current and prior population-based cohorts (n = 29), and pooled C-R curves were fitted through the meta-smoothing approach by regions. RESULTS The study population comprised of 42153 participants who contributed 258921.5 person-years at risk (median 6.4 years), of whom 2382 death events occurred during study period. Participants were exposed to an annual average of 51.4 ppb (range: 22.7-74.4 ppb) of warm-season O3 concentration. In the single-pollutant model, a significantly increased hazard ratio (HR) of 1.098 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.023-1.179) was associated with a 10-ppb rise in O3 exposure. Associations remained robust to additional adjustments of co-pollutants, with HRs of 1.099 (95% CI: 1.023-1.180) in bi-pollutant model (+PM2.5) and 1.093 (95% CI: 1.018-1.174) in tri-pollutant model (+PM2.5+NO2), respectively. A J-shaped C-R relationship was identified among Chinese general population, suggesting significant excess mortality risk at high ozone exposure only. The combined C-R curves from Asia (n = 4) and North America (n = 17) demonstrated an overall increased risk of all-cause mortality with O3 exposure, with pooled HRs of 1.124 (95% CI: 0.966-1.307) and 1.023 (95% CI: 1.007-1.039) per 10-ppb rise, respectively. Conversely, an opposite association was observed in Europe (n = 8, HR: 0.914 [95% CI: 0.860-0.972]), suggesting significant heterogeneity across regions (P < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS This study provided national evidence that high O3 exposure may curtail long-term survival of Chinese general population. Great between-region heterogeneity of pooled O3-mortality was identified across North America, Europe, and Asia.
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Affiliation(s)
- Minjin Peng
- Department of Outpatient, Taihe Hospital, Hubei University of Medicine, Shiyan 442000, China
| | - Faxue Zhang
- Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
| | - Yang Yuan
- Institute of Social Development and Health Management, Hubei Province Key Laboratory of Occupational Hazard Identification and Control, School of Public Health, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430065, China.
| | - Zhiming Yang
- School of Economics and Management, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing 100083, China
| | - Kai Wang
- Institute of Social Development and Health Management, Hubei Province Key Laboratory of Occupational Hazard Identification and Control, School of Public Health, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430065, China
| | - Yaqi Wang
- Institute of Social Development and Health Management, Hubei Province Key Laboratory of Occupational Hazard Identification and Control, School of Public Health, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430065, China
| | - Ziqing Tang
- Institute of Social Development and Health Management, Hubei Province Key Laboratory of Occupational Hazard Identification and Control, School of Public Health, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430065, China
| | - Yunquan Zhang
- Institute of Social Development and Health Management, Hubei Province Key Laboratory of Occupational Hazard Identification and Control, School of Public Health, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430065, China.
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Wang Y, Tan H, Zheng H, Ma Z, Zhan Y, Hu K, Yang Z, Yao Y, Zhang Y. Exposure to air pollution and gains in body weight and waist circumference among middle-aged and older adults. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 869:161895. [PMID: 36709892 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.161895] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/18/2022] [Revised: 01/16/2023] [Accepted: 01/25/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Emerging research suggested a nexus between air pollution exposure and risks of overweight and obesity, while existing longitudinal evidence was extensively sparse, particularly in densely populated regions. This study aimed to quantify concentration-response associations of changes in weight and waist circumference (WC) related to air pollution in Chinese adults. METHODS We conceived a nationally representative longitudinal study from 2011 to 2015, by collecting 34,854 observations from 13,757 middle-aged and older adults in 28 provincial regions of China. Participants' height, weight and WC were measured by interviewers using standardized devices. Concentrations of major air pollutants including fine particulate matter (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and ozone (O3) predicted by well-validated spatiotemporal models were assigned to participants according to their residential cities. Possible exposure biases were checked through 1000 random simulated exposure at individual level, using a Monte Carlo simulation approach. Linear mixed-effects models were applied to estimate the relationships of air pollution with weight and WC changes, and restricted cubic spline functions were adopted to smooth concentration-response (C-R) curves. RESULTS Each 10-μg/m3 rise in PM2.5, NO2 and O3 was associated with an increase of 0.825 (95% confidence interval: 0.740, 0.910), 0.921 (0.811, 1.032) and 1.379 (1.141, 1.616) kg in weight, respectively, corresponding to WC gains of 0.688 (0.592, 0.784), 1.189 (1.040, 1.337) and 0.740 (0.478, 1.002) cm. Non-significant violation for linear C-R relationships was observed with exception of NO2-weight and PM2.5/NO2-WC associations. Sex-stratified analyses revealed elevated vulnerability in women to gain of weight in exposure to PM2.5 and NO2. Sensitive analyses largely supported our primary findings via assessing exposure estimates from 1000 random simulations, and performing reanalysis based on non-imputed covariates and non-obese participants, as well as alternative indicators (i.e., body mass index and waist-to-height ratio). CONCLUSIONS We found positively robust associations of later-life exposure to air pollutants with gains in weight and WC based on a national sample of Chinese adult men and women. Our findings suggested that mitigation of air pollution may be an efficient intervention to relieve obesity burden.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yaqi Wang
- Institute of Social Development and Health Management, Hubei Province Key Laboratory of Occupational Hazard Identification and Control, School of Public Health, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430065, China
| | - Huiyue Tan
- Institute of Social Development and Health Management, Hubei Province Key Laboratory of Occupational Hazard Identification and Control, School of Public Health, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430065, China; Healthcare Associated Infection Control Department, The Central Hospital of Enshi Tujia and Miao Autonomous Prefecture, Enshi 445000, China
| | - Hao Zheng
- Department of Environmental Health, Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing 210009, China
| | - Zongwei Ma
- State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of the Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China
| | - Yu Zhan
- Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China
| | - Kejia Hu
- Institute of Big Data in Health Science, School of Public Health, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China
| | - Zhiming Yang
- School of Economics and Management, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing 100083, China
| | - Yao Yao
- China Center for Health Development Studies, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
| | - Yunquan Zhang
- Institute of Social Development and Health Management, Hubei Province Key Laboratory of Occupational Hazard Identification and Control, School of Public Health, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430065, China.
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Oak YJ, Park RJ, Lee JT, Byun G. Future air quality and premature mortality in Korea. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 865:161134. [PMID: 36587681 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.161134] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/11/2022] [Revised: 11/22/2022] [Accepted: 12/19/2022] [Indexed: 06/17/2023]
Abstract
We simulate air quality in Korea for the present, the near-term, and the long-term future conditions under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1: most sustainable pathway with strong emissions control, SSP3: most challenging pathway with mild emissions control) using a chemical transport model. Simulated future concentrations of NO2, SO2, and fine particulate matter (PM2.5), show, in general, lower values compared to the present with varying degrees depending on SSP scenarios. Significant reductions in precursor emissions result in a decrease in O3 concentrations under a NOx-limited environment in the long-term future under SSP1. Under SSP3, O3 increases in the future under a VOC-limited regime, driven by increased CH4 levels and biogenic VOC emissions under the warming climate. Concentrations of PM2.5 and its components, including sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, and organic aerosols (OA), generally decrease in the long-term future under both scenarios. However, the contribution of biogenic secondary OA (BSOA) to PM2.5 will increase in the future. Simulated results are used to estimate cardiorespiratory mortality changes with concentration-response factors from epidemiologic studies in Korea based on national health surveys and Korean cohorts, using projected population structures from the SSP database. The cardiorespiratory health burden of long-term exposure to O3, NO2, SO2, and PM2.5 is estimated to be 10,419 (95 % confidence interval: 1271-17,142), 8630 (0-18,713), 3958 (0-9272), and 10,431 (1411-20,643) deaths in 2019. We find that the total cardiorespiratory excess mortality due to air pollutants under SSP1 decreases by 8 % and 95 % in 2045 and 2095, respectively. Under SSP3, excess mortality increases by 80 % in 2045, and decreases by 22 % in 2095, resulting in a substantial difference in the health outcomes depending on the emission scenario. We also find that the BSOA contribution to total PM2.5 will differ by region, emphasizing the potential health impact of BSOA on a local scale in the future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yujin J Oak
- School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Rokjin J Park
- School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea.
| | - Jong-Tae Lee
- School of Health Policy and Management, College of Health Science, Korea University, Seoul, South Korea; Interdisciplinary Program in Precision Public Health, Korea University, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Garam Byun
- Interdisciplinary Program in Precision Public Health, Korea University, Seoul, South Korea
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