Improving the accuracy of O3 prediction from a chemical transport model with a random forest model in the Yangtze River Delta region, China

Elucidating transport dynamics and regional division of PM2.5 and O3 in China using an advanced network model

Air pollution exhibits significant spatial spillover effects, complicating and challenging regional governance models. This study innovatively applied and optimized a statistics-based complex network method in atmospheric environmental field. The methodology was enhanced through improvements in edge weighting and threshold calculations, leading to the development of an advanced pollutant transport network model. This model integrates pollution, meteorological, and geographical data, thereby comprehensively revealing the dynamic characteristics of PM2.5 and O3 transport among various cities in China. Research findings indicated that, throughout the year, the O3 transport network surpassed the PM2.5 network in edge count, average degree, and average weighted degree, showcasing a higher network density, broader city connections, and greater transmission strength. Particularly during the warm period, these characteristics of the O3 network were more pronounced, showcasing significant transport potential. Furthermore, the model successfully identified key influential cities in different periods; it also provided detailed descriptions of the interprovincial spillover flux and pathways of PM2.5 and O3 across various time scales. It pinpointed major pollution spillover and receiving provinces, with primary spillover pathways concentrated in crucial areas such as the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region and its surrounding areas, the Yangtze River Delta, and the Fen-Wei Plain. Building on this, the model divided the O3, PM2.5, and synergistic pollution transmission regions in China into 6, 7, and 8 zones, respectively, based on network weights and the Girvan Newman (GN) algorithm. Such division offers novel perspectives and strategies for regional joint prevention and control. The validity of the model was further corroborated by source analysis results from the WRF-CAMx model in the BTH area. Overall, this research provides valuable insights for local and regional atmospheric pollution control strategies. Additionally, it offers a robust analytical tool for research in the field of atmospheric pollution.

Ozone and its precursors at an urban site in the Yangtze River Delta since clean air action plan phase II in China

In response to regional ozone (O3) pollution, Chinese government has implemented air pollution control measures in recent years. Here, a case study was performed at an O3-polluted city, Wuhu, in Yangtze River Delta region of China to investigate O3 variation trend and the relationship to its precursors after implementation of Clean Air Action Plan Phase II, which aims to reduce O3 pollution. The results showed that peak O3 concentration was effectively reduced since Clean Air Action Plan Phase II. Due to significant NOx reduction, O3 formation tended to shift from volatile organic compound (VOC)-limited regimes to NOx-limited regimes during 2018-2022. VOC/NOx ratios measured in 2022 revealed that peak O3 concentration tended to respond positively to NOx. Apart from high-O3 period, Wuhu was still in a VOC-limited regime. The relationship of maximum daily 8-h ozone average and NO2 followed a lognormal distribution with an inflection point at 20 μg m-3 of NO2, suggesting that Wuhu should conduct joint control of VOC and NOx with a focus on VOC reduction before the inflection point. Alkenes and aromatics were suggested to be preferentially controlled due to their higher ozone formation potentials. Using random forest meteorological normalization method, meteorology had a positive effect on O3 concentration in 2018, 2019 and 2022, but a negative effect in 2020 and 2021. The meteorology could explain 44.0 ± 19.1% of the O3 variation during 2018-2022. High temperature favors O3 production and O3 pollution occurred more easily when temperature was over 25 °C, while high relative humidity inhibits O3 generation and no O3 pollution was found at relative humidity above 70%. This study unveils some new insights into the trend of urban O3 pollution in Yangtze River Delta region since Clean Air Action Plan Phase II and the findings provide important references for formulating control strategies against O3 pollution.

Regional background ozone estimation for China through data fusion of observation and simulation

Regional background ozone (O3_RBG) is an important component of surface ozone (O3). However, due to the uncertainties in commonly used Chemical Transport Models (CTMs) and statistical models, accurately assessing O3_RBG in China is challenging. In this study, we calculated the O3_RBG concentrations with the CTM - Brute Force Method (BFM) and constrained the results with site observations of O3 with the multiple linear regression (MLR) model. The annual average O3_RBG concentration in China region in 2020 is 35 ± 4 ppb, accounting for 81 ± 5 % of the maximum 8-h average O3 (MDA8 O3). We applied the random forest and Shapley additive explanations based on meteorological standardization techniques to separate the contributions of meteorology and natural emissions to O3_RBG. Natural emissions contribute more significantly to O3_RBG than meteorology in various Chineses regions (30-40 ppb), with higher contributions during the warm season. Meteorological factors show higher contributions in the spring and summer seasons (2-3 ppb) than the other seasons. Temperature and humidity are the primary contributors to O3_RBG in regions with severe O3 pollution in China, with their individual impacts ranging from 30 % to 62 % of the total impacts of all meteorological factors in different seasons. For policy implications, we tracked the contributions of O3_RBG and local photochemical reaction contributions (O3_LC) to total O3 concentration at different O3 levels. We found that O3_LC contribute over 45 % to MDA8 O3 on polluted days, supporting the current Chinese policy of reducing O3 peak concentrations by cutting down precursor emissions. However, as the contribution of O3_RBG is not considered in the policy, additional efforts are needed to achieve the control groal of O3 concentration. As the implementation of stringent O3 control measurements in China, the contribution of O3_RBG become increasingly significant, suggesting the need for attention to O3_RBG and regional joint prevention and control.

Emission inventory and air quality impact of non-road construction equipment in different emission stages

Non-road construction equipment (NRCE) is an important source of air pollution, and it is crucial to fully understand the impact of NRCE on atmospheric PM2.5 and O3 pollution. However, systematic assessment of the impact of NRCE emissions on the atmosphere is lacking, especially with the latest implementation of the Stage IV Standard, and current research progress is insufficient for the development of effective control measures. This study estimated NRCE emission inventories at different emission standard stages and their impact on the atmosphere, using the "2 + 26" cities as the case study area. The results showed that the total NRCE emissions of CO, NOx, VOC, and PM2.5 were 387, 418, 82, and 24 kt in 2015 and 319, 262, 62, and 15 kt in 2020 and are predicted to be 270, 226, 48, and 10 kt in 2025, respectively. Simulation results showed that the contributions of NRCE to NO3-, NO2, PM2.5, and O3 were 16.7 %, 18.9 %, 7.7 %, and 8.2 % in 2015 to 13.6 %, 18.4 %, 6.5 %, and 6.7 % in 2020, respectively. In both 2015 and 2020, NRCE emissions in southern cities showed greater impacts on the average concentrations in the "2 + 26" cities than those in northern cities. The contributions of local NRCE emissions to local PM2.5 and O3 concentrations in the 28 cities ranged from 30 %-59 % and 13 %-39 %, respectively. The O3 sensitivity estimated by the HDDM illustrated that nonlinear characteristics highlighted the importance of coordinated control of NOx and VOC and can inspire development of post-processing technology and electricity substitution. The belt-like area connecting Zhengzhou to Beijing showed higher exposure concentrations of PM2.5 and O3, and the concentration exposure in urban areas was much higher than that in the rural and other areas. The environmental impact assessment of NRCE emissions can provide guidance for its management and development.

Development of a recurrent spatiotemporal deep-learning method coupled with data fusion for correction of hourly ozone forecasts

Ambient ozone (O3) predictions can be very challenging mainly due to the highly nonlinear photochemistry among its precursors, and meteorological conditions and regional transport can further complicate the O3 formation processes. The emission-based chemical transport models (CTM) are broadly used to predict O3 formation, but they may deviate from observations due to input uncertainties such as emissions and meteorological data, in addition to the treatment of O3 nonlinear chemistry. In this study, an innovative recurrent spatiotemporal deep-learning (RSDL) method with model-monitor coupled convolutional recurrent neural networks (ConvRNN) has been developed to improve O3 predictions of CTM. The RSDL method was first used to build the ConvRNN within a 24-h scale to characterize the spatiotemporal relationships between the monitored O3 data and CTM simulations, and then incorporated the recurrent pattern to achieve 72-h multi-site forecasts based on a pilot study over the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region of China. The results showed that the RSDL method predicted O3 with high accuracy over this case study, with an increase of 27.54% in the correlation coefficient (R) average for all sites as well as an increase in R of 0.14-0.21 for all cities compared to CTM. Moreover, the regional distribution of CTM was further improved by the RSDL predictions with the data fusion technique, which greatly reduced the underpredictions of O3 concentrations, particularly in high O3-level areas (concentrations >160 μg/m3), with a 33.55% reduction in the mean absolute error (MAE).