Coordination evaluation and obstacle factors recognition analysis of water resource spatial equilibrium system

Comprehensive evaluation of "Three Waters" carrying capacity and path evolution study: A case of the Yellow River Basin

Research focusing solely on the carrying capacity of a single aspect of water resources, water environment, or water ecology is no longer sufficient to support the sustainable development and management of basin water systems. The study of basin carrying capacity should expand towards a comprehensive and holistic direction. Therefore, this study constructed an evaluation index system for carrying capacity based on water resources, water environment, and water ecology ("Three Waters"). Utilizing the entropy weight-TOPSIS method, System Comprehensive Index Evaluation, and ArcGIS tools, the comprehensive evaluation index of the "Three Waters" System Carrying Capacity (TWSCC) in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) from 2005 to 2020 was calculated. The evaluation index analyzed the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of subsystem carrying capacity and performed early warning identification and analysis of TWSCC. Four differentiated developmental pathways were designed based on the current status of basin carrying capacity. Leveraging System Dynamics (SD) modeling, the dynamic simulation, and emulation of carrying capacity trends in the YRB from 2020 to 2035 were conducted. The research findings indicate that from 2005 to 2020, the TWSCC levels across the nine provinces in the YRB consistently exhibited varying degrees of overload. The alert levels mostly remained in "Heavy warning" or "Medium warning" states. By 2035, TWSCC under the four development paths improved from 2020 levels, with the Green Environmental Protection-Oriented scheme reaching a safe carrying capacity. In summary, this paper offers theoretical and methodological support for developing basin-carrying capacity and the integrated governance of "Three Waters."

Security assessment and diagnosis for industrial water resources using TODIMSort considering Best-Worst Method with double hierarchy hesitant fuzzy linguistic term set

Motivated by the driving force to address global water scarcity, industrial water resources, as the second largest consumption of water resources, its security assessment plays a crucial role in improving the current situation. Hence, this paper proposes a novel methodology to conduct the industrial water resources security (IWRS) assessment. Firstly, a more targeted assessment system based on the framework of the Pressure-State-Response (P-S-R) on IWRS is established. Then, enhanced with a double hierarchy hesitant fuzzy linguistic term set (DHHFLTS), the Best-Worst Method (BWM) now determines subjective weights through DHHFLTS-BWM (DF-BWM). By introducing the Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation (CRITIC) method, which considers the indicator interactions, objective weights are obtained to modify the subjective weights. Furthermore, the global dominance of all alternatives is calculated by a TODIMSort method and grading them. Moreover, 16 cities in Anhui Province are taken as examples to assess IWRS in the decade from 2011 to 2020. Comparative analysis with original BWM, time series analysis, sensitivity analysis on loss attenuation coefficient, coupling and coordination analysis and obstacle analysis on all indicators are conducted to verify the rationality, effectiveness, and stability of the proposed assessment methodology. Simultaneously, explore the existing issues within IWRS. It can be seen from the results that the performance of Lu'an and Huainan cities is relatively better, while Ma'anshan city shows relatively poorer performance. In addition, per capita water resources and wastewater treatment facilities have a significant impact on the IWRS. Finally, some management suggestions are proposed to enhance the scientific and effective management of industrial water resources and ensure their sustainable utilization.

Coupling coordination and driving mechanisms of water resources carrying capacity under the dynamic interaction of the water-social-economic-ecological environment system

The water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) is a complex and comprehensive system that is jointly influenced by water resources, society, the economy and the ecological environment. Previous WRCC studies have primarily focused on estimating the overall level of regional WRCC. Few studies have explored the interactions among the various elements in the WRCC system and their influence on the WRCC evolution. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is, on the one hand, to explore the dynamic interactive relationships within the WRCC system from the perspectives of water resources, society, the economy and the ecological environment using a coupling coordination degree model and a panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) model, and on the other hand, to determine the evolutionary driving mechanism of the WRCC using the geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) model to improve the regional WRCC. Taking 21 cities in Guangdong Province as an example, the results show that (1) the coupling coordination degree among the four WRCC subsystems in Guangdong Province shows an overall upward trend from 2009 to 2020, and the coordination between water resources utilization and other subsystems needs to be further strengthened. (2) The economic subsystem is the core of the WRCC system with reinforcing effects on both water resources and social subsystems but significant inhibitory effects on the ecological environment subsystem. Notably, the development of the ecological environment plays a crucial role in promoting social and economic development. (3) From 2009 to 2020, the development of the WRCC in Guangdong Province is initially driven by social and economic development, followed by economic development and ecological environmental protection, and then mainly by ecological environmental protection, which gradually becomes the primary driving force. This study provides a new entry point for studying the regional WRCC and formulating targeted measures for enhancing the regional WRCC.

Assessing the impact of incentive coordination effect on the equilibrium of agricultural water usage by China's South-to-North Water Diversion Middle Route Project

In recent years, the sustainable development of agricultural water resources has received much attention. The mismatch between agricultural water distribution patterns, land resources, and socioeconomics threatens food production, especially in vast water-scarce plains. Therefore, monitoring agricultural water spatial equilibrium (AWRSE) is necessary. Based on equilibrium theory and information entropy, in this study, the AWRSE evaluation model is constructed from three aspects: agricultural water resources, land resources, and socioeconomics. In addition, the relationship between social factors with cropping pattern as the primary explanatory variable and AWRSE was examined in conjunction with the extended STIRPAT model and applied to the water-receiving area of the Middle Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project (MR-SNWDP). The results show that compared with the pre-diversion period, the AWRSE of 75% of the water-receiving cities has been significantly improved by the MR-SNWTP water supply. The MK test z value of the overall regional AWRSE has changed from - 0.328 to - 2.65, and the AWRSE development has shifted from not significantly better to significantly better. The cropping pattern shows a positive response to this development, and this effect can be mitigated in the late stage of water transfer; when the proportion of food crop cultivation increases by 1%, the sub-regional AWRSE value will increase by 0.347%. The evaluation model demonstrates a broad range of inclusiveness and application potential; it provides novel insights for examining agroecological, social, and economic stability.

Method development and empirical research in examining the construction of China's "Zero-waste Cities"

At the current stage, >100 cities in China are in the process of constructing "Zero-waste Cities" (ZCs). However, the absence of a unified quantitative evaluation method hinders the real-time display, assessment, and analysis of the progress and effectiveness of construction in various cities. Based on China's "Zero-waste City" (ZC) construction index system, a five-dimensional evaluation approach of transforming the city's construction index system into an evaluation index system is proposed, and an evaluation method for examining the construction of China's ZCs is developed. Meanwhile, the obstacle analysis model is employed to identify ZC's advantages and weaknesses. Following this evaluation framework, empirical research was conducted on Shenzhen. Results showed: 1) Shenzhen's ZC scoring result increased significantly from 58.9 to 108.3 by implementing the pilot project; 2) The dimensions of Management Measure, Support Capacity, and City Characteristic had achieved or approached full scores, but the dimension of Management Level still need improvement. 3) While industrial waste management reached an excellent level and agricultural waste proved manageable, domestic waste landfill and construction waste disposal still existed challenges. This method takes into account the uniformity of evaluation methods in nationwide and the diversity of solid waste environmental issues in cities. It can achieve a quantitative assessment of the ZC construction level for all cities in China, and providing a scientific basis for the horizontal comparison of the construction effectiveness of each city.

Analysis of the spatiotemporal patterns and decoupling effects of China's water resource spatial equilibrium

The significance of water resource spatial equilibrium (WRSE) research is to maximally remove the spatial restrictions of water on regional development, including social development, economic development and eco-environmental maintenance. Although great achievements have been made, national-scale WRSE research is rare; besides, the spatiotemporal patterns and decoupling effects of WRSE have been poorly studied in current research. Thus, the aim of this research is to measure the WRSE in China for the period 2008-2019 by using an improved coupling coordination model and to empirically analyse its distribution dynamics and decoupling effects. The results show that the WRSE status of China's 31 provincial administrative regions from 2008 to 2019 is at a moderate level. Based on the spatiotemporal patterns and decoupling effects analysis, areas in urgent need of improving WRSE status are identified, and tailored countermeasures are provided for each area. To our knowledge, this paper is the first nationwide study of the spatiotemporal patterns and decoupling effects of WRSE.

Coupling coordination analysis of low-carbon development, technology innovation, and new urbanization: Data from 30 provinces and cities in China

Technology innovation capability as an endogenous driving force plays an increasingly important role in the low-carbon transformation of new urbanization. This paper's purpose is to delve into the coupling coordination relationship among the three variables, and promote system's and region's synergy development. Based on the coupling coordination degree model, spatial autocorrelation model and obstacle degree model, this paper investigated the coupling coordination of low-carbon development (LCD) quality, technology innovation (TI) capability and new urbanization (NU) level in China from 2009 to 2019. The results indicate: (1) The coupling coordination degree (CCD) of LCD quality, TI capability and NU level in all regions of the country were fluctuating for a long time, and the regions that reach the coordinated development level showed a slow rising trend with obvious regional differences. (2) Three subsystems' CCD showed significant spatial correlation characteristics, and the degree of spatial agglomeration was constantly increasing. (3) The obstacles affecting the systems' synergy mainly reflected in economic and social indexes. In the end, this paper proposed that policy coordination and linkage should be strengthened, emphasizing the integrated development of the three subsystems. It is necessary to formulate development plans in combination with geographic location and resource endowment to enhance the regional driving effect.

Research on water resources environmental carrying capacity (WRECC) based on support-pressure coupling theory: A case study of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

Water scarcity and water pollution problems are becoming increasingly serious in many regions of the world due to rapid socioeconomic development. Water resources environmental carrying capacity (WRECC), which embodies the attributes of social, economic, resource and environmental aspects, is usually considered as a significant metric to guide regional sustainable development. Most existing studies on WRECC mainly focus on conceptual discussions and evaluation methods, lacking a systematic insight into the theoretical connotations of WRECC and neglecting the interaction mechanisms within the WRECC system. Therefore, this study aims to propose a new WRECC evaluation method based on support and pressure theory to deeply reveal the state change and driving mechanisms of WRECC. Firstly, a WRECC evaluation system incorporating support and pressure is constructed and the WRECC performance is determined by both the support index and pressure index. Subsequently, the catastrophe progression method and the obstacle degree model are introduced to quantify the WRECC and identify the primary influencing factors. Lastly, the feasibility and validity of this methodology are verified through an empirical application in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA). The results indicate that the WRECC of the GBA presents an upward trend from 2010 to 2019, shifting from a low-value load state to a low-value surplus state. Moreover, the WRECC performance varies significantly among cities in the GBA, especially for edge cities that generally exhibit higher support, pressure and WRECC indices than central cities. In addition, common obstacles that affect WRECC are total water resources, water resources per capita, water consumption per hectare for agriculture and proportion of the tertiary industry. Furthermore, this study reveals that the coupling relationship between support and pressure develops towards a positive direction, and water environment protection and economic development are the main drivers of WRECC development. This new proposed methodology can provide a theoretical reference for investigating regional WRECC and formulating appropriate sustainable development strategies.

Evaluation of the Resilience of the Socio-Hydrological System of the Tarim River Basin in China and Analysis of the Degree of Barriers

The study of changes in the resilience of socio-hydrological systems in arid zones is of great significance to ensure the sustainable development of socio-economic and water resources in arid zones. In order to fully understand the level of resilience development of the Tarim River Basin socio-hydrological system and the main impediments to its development, we constructed a resilience evaluation model of the Tarim River Basin socio-hydrological system from two aspects, vulnerability and adaptability, which is what makes this paper different from other studies. The evaluation index weights were determined using a comprehensive assignment, and the barrier factors and evolutionary characteristics of the system resilience were revealed based on the TOPSIS algorithm and barrier degree model. The results show that (1) during the period 2001–2020, the resilience of the socio-hydrological system in the Tarim River Basin showed a fluctuating upward trend, with the calculated values mainly in the range of 0.8–1.5, and the overall resilience level was mainly at the medium or good level; (2) from the changes in each criterion layer, the vulnerability and adaptability of the Tarim River Basin showed a fluctuating upward trend from 2001 to 2020, with an increase in vulnerability and adaptability; and (3) the main barriers to the resilience of the socio-hydrological system in the Tarim River Basin are the degree of pollution of surface water sources and the amount of water consumption per 10,000 yuan of GDP. We believe that we should continue to change the economic development model, vigorously develop water-saving irrigation technology, improve water resource utilisation and economic benefits, and improve the overall resilience of the socio-hydrological system. A full understanding of the evolutionary characteristics of the resilience of socio-hydrological systems and the main influencing factors can provide a theoretical basis for future water resources development and utilisation, socio-economic development, and related policy formulation.