Environmental reverberations of geopolitical risk and economic policy uncertainty resulting from the Russia-Ukraine conflict: A wavelet based approach for sectoral CO2 emissions

Exploring the mediating role of financial inclusion in the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and CO2 emissions: A global perspective

This study examines the connection between economic policy uncertainty (EPU), CO2 emissions, and financial inclusion in developed and developing countries. Using the data from 2004 to 2021, advanced statistical techniques are employed, including Sobel test, to explore the mediating effect of financial inclusion on the relationship between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and CO2 emissions. There is a dearth of research examining these three variables together in a single study. Similarly, using financial inclusion as a mediator in the relation of EPU and CO2 emissions is a novel concept. This article employs a multi-indicator approach to measure key variables like CO2 emissions and financial inclusion. The results indicate that uncertainties in economic policies contribute in practices that lead to higher CO2 emissions in overall panel data of 44 countries. In addition, when considering the relationship between EPU and FI, the results indicate a significant and negative relationship between EPU and FI. If there is uncertainty in economic policies, it may lead toward challenges and hurdles in financial inclusion. When the mediating affect was checked, it was found financial inclusion acts as a significant mediator in the relationship between EPU and CO2 emissions, depicting that financial inclusion fosters the environmental quality and mitigates the potential harmful effects of environmental aspects of economic policy uncertainty. Therefore, policies that promote financial inclusion should be given top priority by governments, particularly in emerging nations. Financial literacy and bank service accessibility should be promoted. These measures would lessen the impact of staggering economic policies on CO2 emissions. It is necessary for policymakers to include environmental factors, specifically those relating to carbon emissions, into economic strategies. This requires encouraging industries to adopt eco-friendly practices and coordinating economic strategies with sustainability objectives.

Financial globalization and economic growth amid geopolitical risk: A study on China-Russia far East federal district

Geopolitics, natural resource efficiency and financial globalization have arisen as a new concept for low CO2 to achieve sustainable economic growth (EG). Therefore, developed and developing economies focus on Geopolitics risk (GPR), natural resource (NRS) efficiency and financial globalization (FG) to cope with CO2 neutrality targets. In order to understand the elements that contribute to achieving CO2 neutrality, this study sought to establish a relevant connection between geopolitics, the efficiency of NRS, financial globalization (FNG), and economic growth. For the abovementioned objectives, modern econometric methods, such as the canonical cointegration, CS-FGLS and GMM were adopted to evaluate the China-Russia Far East dataset between 1990 and 2022. In order to achieve CO2 neutrality in the long run, the study's elements are crucial, according to the results. In addition, GMM shows that each of the parameters affects CO2 neutrality. As a result, the ecological Kuznets curve rules the economic landscape, and long-term CO2 neutrality is greatly facilitated by geopolitics, efficient use of natural resources, financial globalization, and economic growth. Consequently, numerous domains necessitate far-reaching and revolutionary policy changes, such as economic integration to mitigate geopolitical risk, effective management of natural resources, efficient financial systems, and sustainable technology.

How are electricity generation effective on carbon neutrality in the global south? Evidence from sectoral CO2 emissions by daily data

In light of the efforts to ensure carbon neutrality by combating climate-related problems, the study investigates the effectiveness of electricity generation (EG) from the main renewable sources (hydro-HEG, solar-SEG, and wind-WEG). In this context, the study examines the countries of the Global South (i.e., Brazil, China, and India), considers EG at a disaggregated level and sectoral CO2 emissions, applies nonlinear methods, and uses daily data between January 2, 2019 and December 31, 2022. The results demonstrate that (i) disaggregated EG sources have a stronger (weaker) time and frequency dependency on sectoral CO2 emissions in China (Brazil and India); (ii) HEG has a stimulating impact on sectoral CO2 emissions in all countries; (iii) SEG has an increasing impact on sectoral CO2 emissions in Brazil and China, while it provides a decrease in sectoral CO2 emissions in India; (iv) WEG upsurges sectoral CO2 emissions in China, while it achieves a CO2 reduction in Brazil and India; (v) disaggregated level EG has a causal impact on sectoral CO2 emissions across all quantiles except some lower, middle, and higher quantiles. The study adds scientific value to existing knowledge by analyzing for the first time which EG sources are effective in reducing daily CO2 emissions in the Global South. Based on the outcomes, the study demonstrates that WEG is the best EG source for Brazil, that SEG and WEG are optimal EG sources for India, and that China cannot benefit from the EG sources considered. In this way, the study provides fresh insights for the countries of the Global South and underlines the crucial role of renewable EG in ensuring carbon neutrality.

Effects of geopolitical risk on environmental sustainability and the moderating role of environmental policy stringency

This study investigates the impact of geopolitical risk (GPR) on consumption-based carbon (CCO2) emissions as well as the moderating role of environmental policy stringency (EPS) on the above relationship. Based on data collected from 27 countries from 1990 to 2020, the basic results from the sample of the study indicate that GPR accelerates CCO2 emissions. Quantile regression results reveal that the effect of GPR is more pronounced in countries with higher CCO2 emissions. Moreover, EPS weakens the escalating effect of GPR on CCO2 emissions. The robust test results validate the findings reported in the basic regression model. The heterogeneity test indicates that the impact of GPR on CCO2 emissions is greater in developing countries compared in developed countries. The study also proposes these policy implications based on the findings: (1) countries should ensure a stable political environment, establish a robust legal system and promote energy transition; and (2) the scope of environmental taxes should be expanded where different tax rates should be imposed in order to be useful in reducing CCO2 emissions.

Role of energy transition in easing energy security risk and decreasing CO2 emissions: Disaggregated level evidence from the USA by quantile-based models

Consistent with the increasing environmental interest, the clean energy transition is highly critical to achieving decarbonization targets. Also, energy security has become an important topic under the shadow of the energy crisis,. Accordingly, countries have been trying to stimulate clean energy use to preserve the environment and ensure energy security. So, considering the leading role of economic size and volume of energy use, the study examines the USA to define whether energy transition helps decrease energy security risk (ESR) and curb CO2 emissions. So, the study applies a disaggregated level analysis by performing quantile-based models for the period from 2001/Q1 through 2022/Q4. The results demonstrate that (i) the energy transition index decreases environmental ESR at higher quantiles and reliability ESR at lower and middle quantiles, whereas it is not beneficial in declining economic and geopolitical ESR; (ii) energy transition curbs CO2 emissions in building and transport sectors at lower quantiles, whereas it does not help decrease CO2 emissions in industrial and power sectors; (iii) energy transition is mostly ineffective on ESR, whereas it is highly effective in curbing CO2 emissions in all sectors except for transport across various quantiles as time passes; (iv) the results differ according to the aggregated and disaggregated levels; (v) the results are consistent across main and alternative models. Hence, the study highlights the dominant effect of energy transition in curbing sectoral CO2 emissions rather than easing ESR. Accordingly, the study discusses various policy implications for the USA.

Unleashing sustainability in uncertain times: Can we leverage economic complexity, uncertainty, and remittances to combat environmental degradation?

Rapid economic growth and human activities have seriously damaged the environment and hindered the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Hence, this study aims to explore the impact of economic complexity, uncertainty, and remittance on environmental degradation in 134 countries from 2000 to 2022. In addition, it examines whether uncertainty moderates the relationship between remittance and environmental degradation. Two proxies (ecological footprint and CO2) were used to measure environmental degradation. The analysis was conducted using a cross-sectional dependency test, second-generation unit root test, and panel quantile regression. The results revealed that economic complexity significantly and positively impacted environmental degradation, while uncertainty and remittance significantly and negatively impacted environmental degradation. Furthermore, uncertainty weakened the negative relationship between remittance and environmental degradation. Accordingly, this paper discusses various recommendations and policy implications regarding economic complexity, uncertainty, remittance, and environmental degradation.

Geopolitical risk and ecological efficiency: A combination approach based on super-efficiency-DEA and extended-STIRPAT models

Increased geopolitical risks are impacting the sustainable development of the ecological environment. To better understand the impact of geopolitical risk on ecological sustainability, this study develops a research framework for the impact of geopolitical risk on ecological efficiency. (i) Measuring ecological efficiency by data envelopment analysis. (ii) Examining the relationship between geopolitical risks and ecological efficiency using the extended STIRPAT. (iii) Heterogeneity analysis and mediation test were used to further explore the impact mechanism of geopolitical risks. The research results show that: (i) There are obvious differences in the ecological efficiency of countries with different income levels. The ecological efficiency of countries with higher income levels is generally higher, while the ecological efficiency of countries with lower income levels is lower. (ii) Geopolitical risks reduce ecological efficiency, which is bad for ecosystem sustainability. (iii) The magnitude of the adverse impact of geopolitical risks on ecological efficiency is different among different income groups. The negative impact of geopolitical risk on eco-efficiency is worse in high-income countries than in low-income countries.

The dampening effect of geopolitical risk and economic policy uncertainty in the linkage between economic complexity and environmental degradation in the G-20

The question remains whether high geopolitical risk and economic policy uncertainty will have a dampening or enhancing effect on pollution factors. In this regard, the study empirically investigates the effects of economic complexity, geopolitical risk, economic policy uncertainty, renewable energy consumption and economic growth on environmental pollution for G-20 countries from 1997 to 2018. The long-term coefficient estimates, derived from the FMOLS estimator, support the inverted U-shaped EKC linkages between economic complexity and ecological footprint, carbon footprint and carbon dioxide emissions. Furthermore, over the long term, geopolitical risks, renewable energy use, and the interaction between economic complexity and policy uncertainty have a positive impact on environmental quality in the G-20 economies. Conversely, economic growth and the interaction between economic complexity and geopolitical risk are negatively associated with environmental quality. Additionally, economic policy uncertainty has a positive effect on ecological footprint carbon footprint and carbon dioxide emissions. Finally, causality results revealed that explanatory variables are the cause of environmental pollution indicators. Hence, in order to advance environmental quality in these nations, precautions must be taken to mitigate the effects of economic policy uncertainty and boost the accessibility of renewable energy sources. Additionally, while not advised as a policy measure, the feasible economic fallout of geopolitical risk should also be considered.

Financial inclusion and environmental pollution in Türkiye: Fresh evidence from load capacity curve using AARDL method

Sustainability is an important concept for the whole world. Generally, in order to measure the sustainability of the environment, carbon dioxide emissions and ecological footprint indicators are used. However, these variables do not reflect the supply side of natural resources. Therefore, load capacity factor is an important environmental indicator for a sustainability. Environmental assessment based on the load capacity factor is more meaningful. Besides, improved access to financial services can contribute to environmental sustainability. The effect of financial inclusion on the load capacity factor in Türkiye has not been examined in the current literature. In this context, this study analyzes the impact of financial inclusion, hydropower energy consumption, and life expectancy at birth on environmental sustainability from a different perspective by focusing on load capacity factor. To this end, this study used the newly developed Augmented ARDL method to determine the cointegration relationship between the series and measure the values of the long-term coefficients. Based on the Augmented ARDL method, there is a cointegration relationship between the series. In the long run, hydropower energy consumption reduces pollution, while financial inclusion decreases load capacity factor. The effect of life expectancy at birth on pollution is not significant. Moreover, the results reveal that the load capacity curve hypothesis is valid in Türkiye. As a result, the Turkish government should promote renewable energy sources, especially hydropower energy consumption, align financial services with pollution reduction measures, and contribute to the creation of an environmentally conscious society.

Natural gas supply cuts and searching alternatives in Germany: A disaggregated level energy consumption analysis for environmental quality by time series approaches

By considering the search for alternatives against Russia's natural gas supply cuts, this study explores the impact and causality of disaggregated level energy consumption indicators on environmental quality. Hence, the study investigates Germany, which is the leading economy in Europe and highly dependent on Russia's natural gas supply, by using carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions as the environment indicator, including annual data from 1970 to 2021, and applying novel time series approaches. In the empirical examination, Granger causality-in-quantiles (GCiQ), quantile-on-quantile regression (QoQR), and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) are applied as base models while quantile regression (QR) and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) are used for robustness. The empirical findings show that (i) there are causal impacts of disaggregated level energy consumption indicators on CO2 emissions; (ii) renewable energy and hydroelectricity consumption have a decreasing impact, whereas natural gas, coal, and oil energy consumption have an increasing impact on CO2 emissions; (iii) although nuclear energy has been discussed as a potential alternative, nuclear energy does not have a significant impact in decreasing CO2 emissions; (iv) natural gas consumption has an interaction with renewable energy, hydroelectricity, and coal energy consumption; (v) the power of disaggregated level energy consumption indicators on CO2 emissions vary according to quantiles, thresholds, and interactions between energy consumption indicators; (iv) alternative models validate robustness of the results obtained. Thus, the results imply that the most appropriate alternative is coal energy consumption in the short-term and renewable energy consumption in the long-term to compensate for Russia's natural gas supply cuts, whereas nuclear energy consumption is not a real alternative for Germany.