Modeling the population-level impact of treatment on COVID-19 disease and SARS-CoV-2 transmission

COVID-19 from symptoms to prediction: A statistical and machine learning approach

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the analysis of patient data has become a cornerstone for developing effective public health strategies. This study leverages a dataset comprising over 10,000 anonymized patient records from various leading medical institutions to predict COVID-19 patient age groups using a suite of statistical and machine learning techniques. Initially, extensive statistical tests including ANOVA and t-tests were utilized to assess relationships among demographic and symptomatic variables. The study then employed machine learning models such as Decision Tree, Naïve Bayes, KNN, Gradient Boosted Trees, Support Vector Machine, and Random Forest, with rigorous data preprocessing to enhance model accuracy. Further improvements were sought through ensemble methods; bagging, boosting, and stacking. Our findings indicate strong associations between key symptoms and patient age groups, with ensemble methods significantly enhancing model accuracy. Specifically, stacking applied with random forest as a meta leaner exhibited the highest accuracy (0.7054). In addition, the implementation of stacking techniques notably improved the performance of K-Nearest Neighbors (from 0.529 to 0.63) and Naïve Bayes (from 0.554 to 0.622) and demonstrated the most successful prediction method. The study aimed to understand the number of symptoms identified in COVID-19 patients and their association with different age groups. The results can assist doctors and higher authorities in improving treatment strategies. Additionally, several decision-making techniques can be applied during pandemic, tailored to specific age groups, such as resource allocation, medicine availability, vaccine development, and treatment strategies. The integration of these predictive models into clinical settings could support real-time public health responses and targeted intervention strategies.

The impact of triple doses vaccination and other interventions for controlling the outbreak of COVID-19 cases and mortality in Australia: A modelling study

COVID-19 is a significant public health problem around the globe, including in Australia. Despite this, Australia's Ministry of Health has expanded COVID-19 control measures widely, logistical trials exist, and the disease burden still needs more clarity. One of the best methods to comprehend the dynamics of disease transmission is by mathematical modeling of COVID-19, which also makes it possible to quantify factors in many places, including Australia. In order to understand the dynamics of COVID-19 in Australia, we examine a mathematical modeling framework for the virus in this study. Australian COVID-19 actual incidence data from January to December 2021 was used to calibrate the model. We also performed a sensitivity analysis of the model parameters and found that the COVID-19 transmission rate was the primary factor in determining the basic reproduction number (R0). Gradually influential intervention policies were established, with accurate effect and coverage regulated with the help of COVID-19 experts in Australia. We simulated data for the period from April 2022 to August 2023. To ascertain which of these outcomes is most effective in lowering the COVID-19 burden, we here assessed the COVID-19 burden (as shown by the number of incident cases and mortality) under a range of intervention scenarios. Regarding the policy of single intervention, the fastest and most efficient way to lower the incidence of COVID-19 is via increasing the first-dose immunization rate, while an improved treatment rate for the afflicted population is also helps to lower mortality in Australia. Furthermore, our results imply that integrating more therapies at the same time increases their efficacy, particularly for mortality, which significantly reduced with a moderate effort, while lowering the number of COVID-19 instances necessitates a major and ongoing commitment.