1
|
Shankar M, Hartner AM, Arnold CRK, Gayawan E, Kang H, Kim JH, Gilani GN, Cori A, Fu H, Jit M, Muloiwa R, Portnoy A, Trotter C, Gaythorpe KAM. How mathematical modelling can inform outbreak response vaccination. BMC Infect Dis 2024; 24:1371. [PMID: 39617902 PMCID: PMC11608489 DOI: 10.1186/s12879-024-10243-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/25/2024] [Accepted: 11/18/2024] [Indexed: 12/13/2024] Open
Abstract
Mathematical models are established tools to assist in outbreak response. They help characterise complex patterns in disease spread, simulate control options to assist public health authorities in decision-making, and longer-term operational and financial planning. In the context of vaccine-preventable diseases (VPDs), vaccines are one of the most-cost effective outbreak response interventions, with the potential to avert significant morbidity and mortality through timely delivery. Models can contribute to the design of vaccine response by investigating the importance of timeliness, identifying high-risk areas, prioritising the use of limited vaccine supply, highlighting surveillance gaps and reporting, and determining the short- and long-term benefits. In this review, we examine how models have been used to inform vaccine response for 10 VPDs, and provide additional insights into the challenges of outbreak response modelling, such as data gaps, key vaccine-specific considerations, and communication between modellers and stakeholders. We illustrate that while models are key to policy-oriented outbreak vaccine response, they can only be as good as the surveillance data that inform them.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Manjari Shankar
- Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, UK.
| | - Anna-Maria Hartner
- Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, UK
- Centre for Artificial Intelligence in Public Health Research, Robert Koch Institute, Wildau, Germany
| | - Callum R K Arnold
- Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, 16802, PA, USA
| | - Ezra Gayawan
- Department of Statistics, Federal University of Technology, Akure, Nigeria
| | - Hyolim Kang
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Jong-Hoon Kim
- Department of Epidemiology, Public Health, Impact, International Vaccine Institute, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Gemma Nedjati Gilani
- Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Anne Cori
- Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Han Fu
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Mark Jit
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- School of Public Health, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Rudzani Muloiwa
- Department of Paediatrics & Child Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Cape Town, Red Cross War Memorial Children's Hospital, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Allison Portnoy
- Department of Global Health, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, United States
- Center for Health Decision Science, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, United States
| | - Caroline Trotter
- Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, UK
- Department of Veterinary Medicine and Pathology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
| | - Katy A M Gaythorpe
- Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London, London, UK
| |
Collapse
|
2
|
Rydow E, Gönen T, Kachkaev A, Khan S. RAMPVIS: A visualization and visual analytics infrastructure for COVID-19 data. SOFTWAREX 2023:101416. [PMID: 37361907 PMCID: PMC10203881 DOI: 10.1016/j.softx.2023.101416] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/25/2023] [Revised: 05/09/2023] [Accepted: 05/17/2023] [Indexed: 06/28/2023]
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic generated large amounts of diverse data, including testing, treatments, vaccine trials, data from modeling, etc. To support epidemiologists and modeling scientists in their efforts to understand and respond to the pandemic, there arose a need for web visualization and visual analytics (VIS) applications to provide insights and support decision-making. In this paper, we present RAMPVIS, an infrastructure designed to support a range of observational, analytical, model-developmental, and dissemination tasks. One of the main features of the system is the ability to "propagate" a visualization designed for one data source to similar ones, this allows a user to quickly visualize large amounts of data. In addition to the COVID pandemic, the RAMPVIS software may be adapted and used with different data to provide rapid visualization support for other emergency responses.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Erik Rydow
- Oxford e-Research Centre, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3QG, United Kingdom
| | - Tuna Gönen
- Oxford e-Research Centre, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3QG, United Kingdom
| | - Alexander Kachkaev
- Oxford e-Research Centre, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3QG, United Kingdom
| | - Saiful Khan
- Oxford e-Research Centre, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX1 3QG, United Kingdom
| |
Collapse
|
3
|
Chiu PC, Su KW, Wang CH, Ruan CW, Shiao ZP, Tsao CH, Huang HH. Development and Testing of the Smart Healthcare Prototype System through COVID-19 Patient Innovation. Healthcare (Basel) 2023; 11:healthcare11060847. [PMID: 36981502 PMCID: PMC10048738 DOI: 10.3390/healthcare11060847] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/19/2022] [Revised: 03/02/2023] [Accepted: 03/06/2023] [Indexed: 03/16/2023] Open
Abstract
Since the outbreak of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), the epidemic has gradually slowed down in various countries and people’s lives have gradually returned to normal. To monitor the spread of the epidemic, studies discussing the design of related healthcare information systems have been increasing recently. However, these studies might not consider the aspect of user-centric design when developing healthcare information systems. This study examined these innovative technology applications and rapidly built prototype systems for smart healthcare through a systematic literature review and a study of patient innovation. The design guidelines for the Smart Healthcare System (SHS) were then compiled through an expert review process. This will provide a reference for future research and similar healthcare information system development.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Po-Chih Chiu
- College of Management, National Kaohsiung University of Science and Technology, Kaohsiung 824005, Taiwan
| | - Kuo-Wei Su
- Department of Information Management, National Kaohsiung University of Science and Technology, Kaohsiung 824005, Taiwan
- Correspondence: (K.-W.S.); (C.-H.T.)
| | - Chao-Hung Wang
- Department of Information Management, National Kaohsiung University of Science and Technology, Kaohsiung 824005, Taiwan
| | - Cong-Wen Ruan
- Department of Information Management, National Kaohsiung University of Science and Technology, Kaohsiung 824005, Taiwan
| | - Zong-Peng Shiao
- Department of Information Management, National Kaohsiung University of Science and Technology, Kaohsiung 824005, Taiwan
| | - Chien-Han Tsao
- Department of Otolaryngology, Chung Shan Medical University Hospital and School of Medicine, Taichung 40201, Taiwan
- Correspondence: (K.-W.S.); (C.-H.T.)
| | - Hsin-Hsin Huang
- Department of Otolaryngology, Chung Shan Medical University Hospital and School of Medicine, Taichung 40201, Taiwan
| |
Collapse
|
4
|
Rydow E, Borgo R, Fang H, Torsney-Weir T, Swallow B, Porphyre T, Turkay C, Chen M. Development and Evaluation of Two Approaches of Visual Sensitivity Analysis to Support Epidemiological Modeling. IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON VISUALIZATION AND COMPUTER GRAPHICS 2023; 29:1255-1265. [PMID: 36173770 DOI: 10.1109/tvcg.2022.3209464] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/04/2023]
Abstract
Computational modeling is a commonly used technology in many scientific disciplines and has played a noticeable role in combating the COVID-19 pandemic. Modeling scientists conduct sensitivity analysis frequently to observe and monitor the behavior of a model during its development and deployment. The traditional algorithmic ranking of sensitivity of different parameters usually does not provide modeling scientists with sufficient information to understand the interactions between different parameters and model outputs, while modeling scientists need to observe a large number of model runs in order to gain actionable information for parameter optimization. To address the above challenge, we developed and compared two visual analytics approaches, namely: algorithm-centric and visualization-assisted, and visualization-centric and algorithm-assisted. We evaluated the two approaches based on a structured analysis of different tasks in visual sensitivity analysis as well as the feedback of domain experts. While the work was carried out in the context of epidemiological modeling, the two approaches developed in this work are directly applicable to a variety of modeling processes featuring time series outputs, and can be extended to work with models with other types of outputs.
Collapse
|
5
|
Dykes J, Abdul-Rahman A, Archambault D, Bach B, Borgo R, Chen M, Enright J, Fang H, Firat EE, Freeman E, Gönen T, Harris C, Jianu R, John NW, Khan S, Lahiff A, Laramee RS, Matthews L, Mohr S, Nguyen PH, Rahat AAM, Reeve R, Ritsos PD, Roberts JC, Slingsby A, Swallow B, Torsney-Weir T, Turkay C, Turner R, Vidal FP, Wang Q, Wood J, Xu K. Visualization for epidemiological modelling: challenges, solutions, reflections and recommendations. PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS. SERIES A, MATHEMATICAL, PHYSICAL, AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES 2022; 380:20210299. [PMID: 35965467 PMCID: PMC9376715 DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2021.0299] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/04/2023]
Abstract
We report on an ongoing collaboration between epidemiological modellers and visualization researchers by documenting and reflecting upon knowledge constructs-a series of ideas, approaches and methods taken from existing visualization research and practice-deployed and developed to support modelling of the COVID-19 pandemic. Structured independent commentary on these efforts is synthesized through iterative reflection to develop: evidence of the effectiveness and value of visualization in this context; open problems upon which the research communities may focus; guidance for future activity of this type and recommendations to safeguard the achievements and promote, advance, secure and prepare for future collaborations of this kind. In describing and comparing a series of related projects that were undertaken in unprecedented conditions, our hope is that this unique report, and its rich interactive supplementary materials, will guide the scientific community in embracing visualization in its observation, analysis and modelling of data as well as in disseminating findings. Equally we hope to encourage the visualization community to engage with impactful science in addressing its emerging data challenges. If we are successful, this showcase of activity may stimulate mutually beneficial engagement between communities with complementary expertise to address problems of significance in epidemiology and beyond. See https://ramp-vis.github.io/RAMPVIS-PhilTransA-Supplement/. This article is part of the theme issue 'Technical challenges of modelling real-life epidemics and examples of overcoming these'.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | | | | | - Min Chen
- University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | | | - Hui Fang
- Loughborough University, Loughborough, UK
| | | | | | | | - Claire Harris
- Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland, Edinburgh, UK
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Qiru Wang
- University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK
| | - Jo Wood
- City, University of London, London, UK
| | - Kai Xu
- Middlesex University, London, UK
| |
Collapse
|
6
|
Dykes J, Abdul-Rahman A, Archambault D, Bach B, Borgo R, Chen M, Enright J, Fang H, Firat EE, Freeman E, Gönen T, Harris C, Jianu R, John NW, Khan S, Lahiff A, Laramee RS, Matthews L, Mohr S, Nguyen PH, Rahat AAM, Reeve R, Ritsos PD, Roberts JC, Slingsby A, Swallow B, Torsney-Weir T, Turkay C, Turner R, Vidal FP, Wang Q, Wood J, Xu K. Visualization for epidemiological modelling: challenges, solutions, reflections and recommendations. PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS. SERIES A, MATHEMATICAL, PHYSICAL, AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES 2022. [PMID: 35965467 DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.c.6080807] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/07/2023]
Abstract
We report on an ongoing collaboration between epidemiological modellers and visualization researchers by documenting and reflecting upon knowledge constructs-a series of ideas, approaches and methods taken from existing visualization research and practice-deployed and developed to support modelling of the COVID-19 pandemic. Structured independent commentary on these efforts is synthesized through iterative reflection to develop: evidence of the effectiveness and value of visualization in this context; open problems upon which the research communities may focus; guidance for future activity of this type and recommendations to safeguard the achievements and promote, advance, secure and prepare for future collaborations of this kind. In describing and comparing a series of related projects that were undertaken in unprecedented conditions, our hope is that this unique report, and its rich interactive supplementary materials, will guide the scientific community in embracing visualization in its observation, analysis and modelling of data as well as in disseminating findings. Equally we hope to encourage the visualization community to engage with impactful science in addressing its emerging data challenges. If we are successful, this showcase of activity may stimulate mutually beneficial engagement between communities with complementary expertise to address problems of significance in epidemiology and beyond. See https://ramp-vis.github.io/RAMPVIS-PhilTransA-Supplement/. This article is part of the theme issue 'Technical challenges of modelling real-life epidemics and examples of overcoming these'.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | | | | | - Min Chen
- University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | | | - Hui Fang
- Loughborough University, Loughborough, UK
| | | | | | | | - Claire Harris
- Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland, Edinburgh, UK
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Qiru Wang
- University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK
| | - Jo Wood
- City, University of London, London, UK
| | - Kai Xu
- Middlesex University, London, UK
| |
Collapse
|
7
|
Shadbolt N, Brett A, Chen M, Marion G, McKendrick IJ, Panovska-Griffiths J, Pellis L, Reeve R, Swallow B. The challenges of data in future pandemics. Epidemics 2022; 40:100612. [PMID: 35930904 PMCID: PMC9297658 DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100612] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/30/2021] [Revised: 07/15/2022] [Accepted: 07/15/2022] [Indexed: 12/27/2022] Open
Abstract
The use of data has been essential throughout the unfolding COVID-19 pandemic. We have needed it to populate our models, inform our understanding, and shape our responses to the disease. However, data has not always been easy to find and access, it has varied in quality and coverage, been difficult to reuse or repurpose. This paper reviews these and other challenges and recommends steps to develop a data ecosystem better able to deal with future pandemics by better supporting preparedness, prevention, detection and response.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Nigel Shadbolt
- Department of Computer Science, University of Oxford, UK; The Open Data Institute, London, UK.
| | - Alys Brett
- UKAEA Software Engineering Group, UK; Scottish COVID-19 Response Consortium, UK
| | - Min Chen
- Department of Engineering Science, University of Oxford, UK; Scottish COVID-19 Response Consortium, UK
| | - Glenn Marion
- Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland, Edinburgh, UK; Scottish COVID-19 Response Consortium, UK
| | - Iain J McKendrick
- Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland, Edinburgh, UK; Scottish COVID-19 Response Consortium, UK
| | - Jasmina Panovska-Griffiths
- The Big Data Institute, University of Oxford, UK; The Wolfson Centre for Mathematical Biology, University of Oxford, UK; The Queen's College, University of Oxford, UK
| | - Lorenzo Pellis
- Department of Mathematics, University of Manchester, UK; The Alan Turing Institute, London, UK
| | - Richard Reeve
- Scottish COVID-19 Response Consortium, UK; Institute of Biodiversity Animal Health & Comparative Medicine, University of Glasgow, UK
| | - Ben Swallow
- Scottish COVID-19 Response Consortium, UK; School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Glasgow, UK
| |
Collapse
|