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Chen J, Chen H, Zhang T, Yin X, Man J, Yang X, Lu M. Burden of pancreatic cancer along with attributable risk factors in China from 1990 to 2019, and projections until 2030. Pancreatology 2022; 22:608-618. [PMID: 35513974 DOI: 10.1016/j.pan.2022.04.011] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/19/2021] [Revised: 03/02/2022] [Accepted: 04/25/2022] [Indexed: 12/11/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Understanding epidemiology trends and patterns of pancreatic cancer in China from 1990 to 2019 and predicting the burden to 2030 will provide foundations for future policies development. METHODS We collected incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) data of pancreatic cancer in China from 1990 to 2019 based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. We calculated the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) to depict the trends of pancreatic cancer burden and predicted the incidence and mortality in the next decade by using a Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis. RESULTS The number of incident cases sharply increased from 26.77 thousand in 1990 to 114.96 thousand in 2019, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) nearly doubled from 3.17 per 100,000 in 1990 to 5.78 per 100,000 in 2019, with an EAPC of 2.32 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.12, 2.51). The mortality and DALYs presented a similar pattern with incidence. The dominant risk factor for pancreatic cancer was smoking, but the contribution of high body-mass index increased from 1990 to 2019. We projected that the incident cases and deaths of pancreatic cancer would increase to 218.79 thousand and 222.97 thousand, respectively, in 2030 with around 2 times growth. CONCLUSIONS During the past three decades, the incidence, mortality and DALYs of pancreatic cancer gradually increased in China, and the absolute number and rate of pancreatic cancer burden would continue to rise over the next decade. Comprehensive policies and strategies need to be implemented to reduce the incidence and mortality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jiaqi Chen
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Hui Chen
- Clinical Epidemiology Unit, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, China; Clinical Research Center of Shandong University, Qilu Hospital, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Tongchao Zhang
- Clinical Epidemiology Unit, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, China; Clinical Research Center of Shandong University, Qilu Hospital, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Xiaolin Yin
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Jinyu Man
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Xiaorong Yang
- Clinical Epidemiology Unit, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, China; Clinical Research Center of Shandong University, Qilu Hospital, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China; Department of Gastroenterology, Qilu Hospital, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China.
| | - Ming Lu
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China; Clinical Epidemiology Unit, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, China; Clinical Research Center of Shandong University, Qilu Hospital, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China.
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