Predicting chemical degradation during storage from two successive concentration ratios: Theoretical investigation

A New Look at Kinetics in Relation to Food Storage

Modern mathematical software and user-friendly interactive programs can simplify and speed up kinetics calculations. They also open the way for new approaches to storage data gathering and analysis. This is demonstrated with a recently introduced simple exponential model that is interchangeable with the Arrhenius equation and endpoints and successive points methods and that estimates chemical degradation kinetics parameters from a small number of isothermal or nonisothermal experimental data. Also presented are a method to determine shelf life using two chemical markers and a global phenomenological model for peaked reactions, such as those encountered in lipid oxidation. Also recently introduced are freely downloadable Wolfram Demonstrations and other interactive software to generate, visualize, examine, and/or compare actual or hypothetical storage scenarios in minutes. They include programs that solve pairs of simultaneous nonlinear algebraic or differential rate equations by passing two reconstructed degradation curves, or a single nonisothermal curve, through two entered experimental points by moving the degradation parameters’ sliders on the screen.

Simulating shelf life determination by two simultaneous criteria

The shelf life of food and pharmaceutical products is frequently determined by a marker's concentration or quality index falling below or surpassing an assigned threshold level. Naturally, different chosen markers would indicate different shelf life for the same storage temperature history. We demonstrate that if there are two markers, such as two labile vitamins, the order in which their concentrations cross their respective thresholds may depend not only on their degradation kinetic parameters but also on the particular storage temperature profile, be it isothermal or non-isothermal. Thus, at least theoretically, the order observed in accelerated storage need not be always indicative of the actual order at colder temperatures, except where the two degradation reactions follow the same kinetic order and their temperature-dependence rate parameter is also the same. This is shown with simulated hypothetical degradation reactions that follow first or zero order kinetics and whose rate constant's temperature-dependence obeys the exponential model. It is also demonstrated with simulated hypothetical Maillard reaction's products whose synthesis rather than their degradation follows pseudo zero order kinetics. The software developed to do the simulations and calculate the thresholds crossing points has been posted on the Internet as a freely downloadable interactive Wolfram Demonstration, which can be used as a tool in storage studies and shelf life prediction. In principle, the methodology can be extended from two to any number of markers.