Multilevel modelling as a tool to include variability and uncertainty in quantitative microbiology and risk assessment. Thermal inactivation of Listeria monocytogenes as proof of concept

Modeling strain variability in Campylobacter jejuni thermal inactivation by quantifying the number of strains required

There is a limited understanding of the survival responses of Campylobacter jejuni during thermal processing, which must be investigated for appropriate risk assessment and processing. Therefore, we aimed to elucidate the survival response of C. jejuni and develop a predictive model considering strain variability and uncertainty, which are important for quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) or risk-based processing control measures. We employed the most probable curve (MPC) method to consider the uncertainty in cell concentrations. Further, the multivariate normal (MVN) distribution served as a model for strain variability in bacterial survival behavior. The prediction curves from the MVN successfully captured the parameter variability of the most probable curves of each strain. More than ten reference strains effectively described the strain variability in parameters using the MVN distribution. The findings indicated that, with sufficient strain data, the MVN could estimate the strain variability, including unknown strains. The multi-level model for strain variability can potentially become a specialized tool for QMRA and risk-based processing controls. The combined approach of MPC and MVN provides valuable insights into strain variability, emphasizing the importance of accounting for variability and uncertainty in predictive models for QMRA and risk-based processing control measures.

Temperature status of domestic refrigerators and its effect on the risk of listeriosis from ready-to-eat (RTE) cooked meat products

Inadequate domestic refrigeration is frequently cited as a factor that contributes to foodborne poisoning and infection, and consumer behaviour in this regard can vary largely. This study provides insight into the temperature profiles of domestic refrigerators in the Netherlands and the impact on the number of listeriosis cases related to ready-to-eat (RTE) cooked meat products. A survey was conducted among Dutch consumers (n = 1020) to assess their knowledge and behaviour related to refrigerators. Out of these participants, 534 measured their refrigerator's temperature, revealing an average temperature of 5.7 °C (standard deviation (SD) of 2.2 °C) with a maximum of 17 °C. Elderly people (65 years and older) had refrigerators with temperatures that were on average 0.6 °C higher than those of younger people (35 years or younger). The 24-hour temperature profiles of an additional set of actively surveyed refrigerators (n = 50) showed that the temperature measured on the upper shelf was significantly higher (mean 7.7 °C, SD 2.7 °C) than the temperature measured on the bottom shelf (5.7 °C, SD 2.1 °C). Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) predicted that the primary factors contributing to the risk of listeriosis were the initial concentration and the time and temperature during household storage. Scenario analysis revealed that storing opened RTE cooked meat products at home for either <7 days or at temperatures <7 °C resulted in a significant reduction of over 80 % in predicted illness cases. Among all illness cases, the elderly represented nearly 90 %. When assessing the impact of the disease in terms of Years of Life Lost (YLL), the contribution of the elderly was 59 %. Targeted communication, particularly directed towards the elderly, on the importance of storing RTE cooked meat products at the recommended temperature on the bottom or middle shelf as well as consuming within two to three days after opening, holds the potential to significantly reduce the number of cases.

An explainable unsupervised risk early warning framework based on the empirical cumulative distribution function: Application to dairy safety

Efficient food safety risk assessment significantly affects food safety supervision. However, food detection data of different types and batches show different feature distributions, resulting in unstable detection results of most risk assessment models, lack of interpretability of risk classification, and insufficient risk traceability. This study aims to explore an efficient food safety risk assessment model that takes into account robustness, interpretability and traceability. Therefore, the Explainable unsupervised risk Warning Framework based on the Empirical cumulative Distribution function (EWFED) was proposed. Firstly, the detection data's underlying distribution is estimated as non-parametric by calculating each testing indicator's empirical cumulative distribution. Next, the tail probabilities of each testing indicator are estimated based on these distributions and summarized to obtain the sample risk value. Finally, the "3σ Rule" is used to achieve explainable risk classification of qualified samples, and the reasons for unqualified samples are tracked according to the risk score of each testing indicator. The experiments of the EWFED model on two types of dairy product detection data in actual application scenarios have verified its effectiveness, achieving interpretable risk division and risk tracing of unqualified samples. Therefore, this study provides a more robust and systematic food safety risk assessment method to promote precise management and control of food safety risks effectively.

Fate of osmotically adapted and biofilm Listeria monocytogenes cells after exposure to salt, heat, and liquid smoke, mimicking the stresses induced during the processing of hot smoked fish

The study aimed to investigate the response of osmotically adapted and detached biofilm Listeria monocytogenes cells following sequential stresses that occur during the processing of hot smoking, such as heating and smoke application. Thermal resistance of L. monocytogenes was significantly affected by previous osmotic adaptation of the cells. D60oC-values of osmotically adapted L. monocytogenes cells were significantly higher than control cells. The osmotically adapted and subsequently heat-injured cells were more resistant to PALCAM and less resistant to TSAYE with 5.00% NaCl (TSAYE/NaCl) than control cells. Detached biofilm cells were more thermotolerant and less resistant to PALCAM and TSAYE/NaCl than control cells. The sequential effect of smoking against heat-treated (60 °C, 20 min) and osmotically adapted or detached L. monocytogenes biofilm cells was investigated using two liquid smoke extracts (L9 and G6). L9 led to significantly higher reductions (>3.00-Log CFU) compared to G6. The heat-treated, detached biofilm cells revealed resistance to L9, presumably due to metabolic downregulation and physical protection by the extracellular polymeric substances (EPS). These data highlight the potential of the food industry to make informed decisions for using safe heat treatments during hot smoking to effectively inactivate L. monocytogenes and maintain rigorous environmental sanitation practices to control biofilm cells.

Quantitative microbial spoilage risk assessment caused by fungi in sports drinks through multilevel modelling

The risk of fungal spoilage of sports drinks produced in the beverage industry was assessed using quantitative microbial spoilage risk assessment (QMSRA). The most relevant pathway was the contamination of the bottles during packaging by mould spores in the air. Mould spores' concentration was estimated by longitudinal sampling for 6 years (936 samples) in different production areas and seasons. This data was analysed using a multilevel model that separates the natural variability in spore concentration (as a function of sampling year, season, and area) and the uncertainty of the sampling method. Then, the expected fungal contamination per bottle was estimated by Monte Carlo simulation, considering their settling velocity and the time and exposure area. The product's shelf life was estimated through the inoculation of bottles with mould spores, following the determination of the probability of visual spoilage as a function of storage time at 20 and 30 °C using logistic regression. The Monte Carlo model estimated low expected spore contamination in the product (1.7 × 10-6 CFU/bottle). Nonetheless, the risk of spoilage is still relevant due to the large production volume and because, as observed experimentally, even a single spore has a high spoilage potential. The applicability of the QMSRA during daily production was made possible through the simplification of the model under the hypothesis that no bottle will be contaminated by more than one spore. This simplification allows the calculation of a two-dimensional performance objective that combines the spore concentration in the air and the exposure time, defining "acceptable combinations" according to an acceptable level of spoilage (ALOS; the proportion of spoiled bottles). The implementation of the model at the operational level was done through the representation of the simplified model as a two-dimensional diagram that defines acceptable and unacceptable areas. The innovative methodology employed here for defining and simplifying QMSRA models can be a blueprint for future studies aiming to quantify the risk of spoilage of other beverages with a similar scope.

Shelf life estimation of refrigerated vacuum packed beef accounting for uncertainty

This study estimates the shelf life of vacuum packed beef meat (three muscles: striploin (longissimus thoracis et lumborum, LTL), tenderloin (psoas major, PM) and outside chuck (trapezius thoracis, TT)) at refrigeration temperatures (0 °C-10 °C) based on modelling the growth of two relevant groups of spoilage microorganisms: lactic acid bacteria (LAB) and Enterobacteriaceae. The growth models were developed combining a two-step and a one-step approach. The primary modelling was used to identify the parameters affecting the growth kinetics, guiding the definition of secondary growth models. For LAB, the secondary model included the effect of temperature and initial pH on the specific growth rate. On the other hand, the model for Enterobacteriaceae incorporated the effect of temperature on the specific growth rate and the lag phase; as well as the effect of the initial pH on the specific growth rate, the lag phase and the initial microbial count. We did not observe any significant effect of the type of muscle on the growth kinetics. Once the equations were defined, the models were fitted to the complete dataset using a one-step approach. Model validation was carried out by cross-validation, mitigating the impact of an arbitrary division between training and validation sets. The models were used to estimate the shelf life of the product, based on the maximum admissible microbial concentration (7 log CFU/g for LAB, 5 log CFU/g for Enterobacteriaceae). Although LAB was the dominant microbiota, in several cases, both LAB and Enterobacteriaceae reached the critical concentration practically at the same time. Furthermore, in some scenarios, the end of shelf life would be determined by Enterobacteriaceae, pointing at the potential importance of non-dominant microorganisms for product spoilage. These results can aid in the implementation of effective control measures in the meat processing industry.

The importance of what we cannot observe: Experimental limitations as a source of bias for meta-regression models in predictive microbiology

Meta-regression models have gained in popularity during the last years as a way to create more generic models for Microbial Risk Assessments that also include variability. However, as with most meta-analyses and empirical models, systematic biases in the data can result in inaccurate models. In this article, we define experimental bias as a type of selection bias due to the practical limitations of microbial inactivation experiments. Conditions with extremely high D-values (i.e. slow inactivation) need very long experimental runs to cause significant reductions. On the other hand, when the D-value is extremely low, not enough data points can be gathered before the microbial population is below the detection limit. Consequently, experimental designs favour conditions within a practical experimental range, introducing a selection bias in the D-values. We demonstrate the impact of experimental bias in meta-regression models using numerical simulations. Models fitted to data with experimental bias overestimated the z-value and underestimated variability. We propose a rapid heuristic method to identify experimental bias in datasets, and we propose truncated regression to mitigate its impact in meta-regression models. Both methods were validated using simulated data. Thereafter the procedures were tested by building a meta-regression model for actual data for the inactivation of Bacillus cereus spores. We concluded that the dataset included experimental bias, and that it would cause an overestimation of the microbial resistance at high temperatures (>120 °C) for classical meta-regression models. This effect was mitigated when the model was built using truncated regression. In conclusion, we demonstrate that experimental bias could potentially result in inaccurate models for predictive microbiology. Therefore, checking for experimental bias should be a routine step in meta-regression modelling, and be included in guidelines on data analysis for meta-regression.

The Most Probable Curve method - A robust approach to estimate kinetic models from low plate count data resulting in reduced uncertainty

A novel method is proposed for fitting microbial inactivation models to data on liquid media: the Most Probable Curve (MPC) method. It is a multilevel model that makes a separation between the "true" microbial concentration according to the model, the "actual" concentration in the media considering chance, and the actual counts on the plate. It is based on the assumptions that stress resistance is homogeneous within a microbial population, and that there is no aggregation of microbial cells. Under these assumptions, the number of colonies in/on a plate follows a Poisson distribution with expected value depending on the proposed kinetic model, the number of dilutions and the plated volume. The novel method is compared against (non)linear regression based on a normal likelihood distribution (traditional method), Poisson regression and gamma-Poisson regression using data on the inactivation of Listeria monocytogenes. The conclusion is that the traditional method has limitations when the data includes plates with low (or zero) cell counts, which can be mitigated using more complex (discrete) likelihoods. However, Poisson regression uses an unrealistic likelihood function, making it unsuitable for survivor curves with several log-reductions. Gamma-Poisson regression uses a more realistic likelihood function, even though it is based mostly on empirical hypotheses. We conclude that the MPC method can be used reliably, especially when the data includes plates with low or zero counts. Furthermore, it generates a more realistic description of uncertainty, integrating the contribution of the plating error and reducing the uncertainty of the primary model parameters. Consequently, although it increases modelling complexity, the MPC method can be of great interest in predictive microbiology, especially in studies focused on variability analysis.

The Different Response to an Acid Shock of Two Salmonella Strains Marks Their Resistance to Thermal Treatments

Microbial cells respond to sub-lethal stresses with several physiological changes to increase their chance of survival. These changes are of high relevance when combined treatments (hurdle technology) are applied during food production, as the cells surviving the first hurdle may have greater resistance to subsequent treatments than untreated cells. In this study, we analyzed if Salmonella develops increased resistance to thermal treatments after the application of an acid shock. We compared the heat resistance of acid-shocked (pH 4.5 achieved with citric acid) Salmonella cells with that of cells maintained at pH 7 (control cells). Thermal treatments were performed between 57.5 and 65°C. We observed a differential response between the two strains studied. Acid-shocked cells of Salmonella Senftenberg exhibited reduced heat resistance, e.g., for a treatment at 60.0°C and pH 7.0 the time required to reduce the population by 3 log cycles was lowered from 10.75 to 1.98min with respect to control cells. Salmonella Enteritidis showed a different response, with acid-shocked cells having similar resistance than untreated cells (the time required to reduce 3 log cycles at 60.0°C and pH 7.0 was 0.30min for control and 0.31min for acid-shock cells). Based on results by differential plating (with or without adding the maximum non-inhibitory concentration of NaCl to the recovery medium), we hypothesize that the differential response between strains can be associated to sub-lethal damage to the cell membrane of S. Senftenberg caused by the acid shock. These results provide evidence that different strains of the same species can respond differently to an acid shock and highlight the relevance of cross-resistances for microbial risk assessment.

Competitive growth kinetics of Campylobacter jejuni, Escherichia coli O157:H7 and Listeria monocytogenes with enteric microflora in a small-intestine model

Aims

The biological events occurring during human digestion help to understand the mechanisms underlying the dose–response relationships of enteric bacterial pathogens. To better understand these events, we investigated the growth and reduction behaviour of bacterial pathogens in an in vitro model simulating the environment of the small intestine.

Methods and Results

The foodborne pathogens Campylobacter jejuni, Listeria monocytogenes and Escherichia coli O157:H7 were cultured with multiple competing enteric bacteria. Differences in the pathogen's growth kinetics due to the relative amount of competing enteric bacteria were investigated. These growth differences were described using a mathematical model based on Bayesian inference. When pathogenic and enteric bacteria were inoculated at 1 log CFU per ml and 9 log CFU per ml, respectively, L. monocytogenes was inactivated over time, while C. jejuni and E. coli O157:H7 survived without multiplying. However, as pathogen inocula were increased, its inhibition by enteric bacteria also decreased.

Conclusions

Although the growth of pathogenic species was inhibited by enteric bacteria, the pathogens still survived.

Significance and Impact of the Study

Competition experiments in a small‐intestine model have enhanced understanding of the infection risk in the intestine and provide insights for evaluating dose–response relationships.

Implementing a new dose-response model for estimating infection probability of Campylobacter jejuni based on the key events dose-response framework

Understanding the dose-response relationship between ingested pathogenic bacteria and infection probability is a key factor for appropriate risk assessment of foodborne pathogens. The objectives of this study were to develop and validate a novel mechanistic dose-response model for Campylobacter jejuni and simulate the underlying mechanism of foodborne illness during digestion. Bacterial behavior in the human gastrointestinal environment, including survival at low pH in the gastric environment after meals, transition to intestines, and invasion to intestinal tissues, was described using a Bayesian statistical model based on the reported experimental results of each process while considering physical food types (liquid or solid) and host age (young adult or elderly). Combining the models in each process, the relationship between pathogen intake and the infection probability of C. jejuni was estimated and compared with reported epidemiological dose-response relationships. Taking food types and host age into account, the prediction range of the infection probability of C. jejuni successfully covered the reported dose-response relationships from actual C. jejuni outbreaks. According to sensitivity analysis of predicted infection probabilities, the host age factor and the food type factor have relatively higher relevance than other factors. Thus, the developed Key Events Dose Response Framework can derive novel information for quantitative microbiological risk assessment in addition of dose-response relationship. The developed framework is potentially applicable to other pathogens to quantify the dose-response relationship from experimental data obtained from digestion. Importance Based on the mechanistic approach called Key Events Dose Response Framework alternative to previous non-mechanistic approach, the dose-response models for infection probability of C. jejuni were developed considering with age of people who take pathogen and food type. The developed predictive framework illustrated highly accurate prediction of dose (minimum difference 0.21 log CFU) for a certain infection probability compared with the previously reported dose-response relationship. In addition, the developed prediction procedure revealed that the dose-response relationship strongly depends on food type as well as host age. The implementation of Key Event Dose Response Framework will mechanistically and logically reveal the dose-response relationship and provide useful information with quantitative microbiological risk assessment of C. jejuni on foods.

Evaluation of Strain Variability in Inactivation of Campylobacter jejuni in Simulated Gastric Fluid by Using Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling

This study was conducted to quantitatively evaluate the variability of stress resistance in different strains of Campylobacter jejuni and the uncertainty of such strain variability. We developed Bayesian statistical models with multilevel analysis to quantify variability within a strain, variability between different strains, and the uncertainty associated with these estimates. Furthermore, we measured the inactivation of 11 strains of C. jejuni in simulated gastric fluid with low pH, using the Weibullian survival model. The model was first developed for separate pH conditions and then analyzed over a range of pH levels. We found that the model parameters developed under separate pH conditions exhibited a clear dependence of survival on pH. In addition, the uncertainty of the variability between different strains could be described as the joint distribution of the model parameters. The latter model, including pH dependency, accurately predicted the number of surviving cells in individual as well as multiple strains. In conclusion, variabilities and uncertainties in inactivation could be simultaneously evaluated and interpreted via a probabilistic approach based on Bayesian theory. Such hierarchical Bayesian models could be useful for understanding individual-strain variability in quantitative microbial risk assessment. IMPORTANCE Since microbial strains vary in their growth and inactivation patterns in food materials, it is important to accurately predict these patterns for quantitative microbial risk assessment. However, most previous studies in this area have used highly resistant strains, which could lead to inaccurate predictions. Moreover, variability, including measurement errors and variability within a strain and between different strains, can contribute to predicted individual-level outcomes. Therefore, a multilevel framework is required to resolve these levels of variability and estimate their uncertainties. We developed a Bayesian predictive model for the survival of Campylobacter jejuni under simulated gastric conditions taking into account the variabilities and uncertainties. We demonstrated a high correspondence between predictions from the model and empirical measurements. The modeling procedure proposed in this study recommends a novel framework for predicting pathogen behavior, which can help improve quantitative microbial risk assessment during food production and distribution.

Bayesian Generalized Linear Model for Simulating Bacterial Inactivation/Growth Considering Variability and Uncertainty

Conventional regression analysis using the least-squares method has been applied to describe bacterial behavior logarithmically. However, only the normal distribution is used as the error distribution in the least-squares method, and the variability and uncertainty related to bacterial behavior are not considered. In this paper, we propose Bayesian statistical modeling based on a generalized linear model (GLM) that considers variability and uncertainty while fitting the model to colony count data. We investigated the inactivation kinetic data of Bacillus simplex with an initial cell count of 10⁵ and the growth kinetic data of Listeria monocytogenes with an initial cell count of 10⁴. The residual of the GLM was described using a Poisson distribution for the initial cell number and inactivation process and using a negative binomial distribution for the cell number variation during growth. The model parameters could be obtained considering the uncertainty by Bayesian inference. The Bayesian GLM successfully described the results of over 50 replications of bacterial inactivation with average of initial cell numbers of 10¹, 10², and 10³ and growth with average of initial cell numbers of 10^–1, 10⁰, and 10¹. The accuracy of the developed model revealed that more than 90% of the observed cell numbers except for growth with initial cell numbers of 10¹ were within the 95% prediction interval. In addition, parameter uncertainty could be expressed as an arbitrary probability distribution. The analysis procedures can be consistently applied to the simulation process through fitting. The Bayesian inference method based on the GLM clearly explains the variability and uncertainty in bacterial population behavior, which can serve as useful information for risk assessment related to food borne pathogens.

To pool or not to pool: That is the question in microbial kinetics

Variation observed in heat inactivation of Salmonella strains (data from Combase) was characterized using multilevel modeling with two case studies. One study concerned repetitions at one temperature, the other concerned isothermal experiments at various temperatures. Multilevel models characterize variation at various levels and handle dependencies in the data. The Weibull model was applied using Bayesian regression. The research question was how parameters varied with experimental conditions and how data can best be analyzed: no pooling (each experiment analyzed separately), complete pooling (all data analyzed together) or partial pooling (connecting the experiments while allowing for variation between experiments). In the first case study, level 1 consisted of the measurements, level 2 of the group of repetitions. While variation in the initial number parameter was low (set by the researchers), the Weibull shape factor varied for each repetition from 0.58-1.44, and the rate parameter from 0.006-0.074 h. With partial pooling variation was much less, with complete pooling variation was strongly underestimated. In the second case study, level 1 consisted of the measurements, level 2 of the group of repetitions per temperature experiment, level 3 of the cluster of various temperature experiments. The research question was how temperature affected the Weibull parameters. Variation in initial numbers was low (set by the researchers), the rate parameter was obviously affected by temperature, the estimate of the shape parameter depended on how the data were analyzed. With partial pooling, and one-step global modeling with a Bigelow-type model for the rate parameter, shape parameter variation was minimal. Model comparison based on prediction capacity of the various models was explored. The probability distribution of calculated decimal reduction times was much narrower using multilevel global modeling compared to the usual single level two-step approach. Multilevel modeling of microbial heat inactivation appears to be a suitable and powerful method to characterize and quantify variation at various levels. It handles possible dependencies in the data, and yields unbiased parameter estimates. The answer on the question "to pool or not to pool" depends on the goal of modeling, but if the goal is prediction, then partial pooling using multilevel modeling is the answer, provided that the experimental data allow that.

Effect of salt and temperature on the growth of Escherichia coli PSII

Presence of pathogenic strains of Escherichia coli in foodstuffs may pose a health risk for a consumer. Therefore, knowledge on the effect of environmental factors on the growth ability of E. coli is of great importance. In this work, the effect of incubation temperature (6–46 °C) and the combined effect of temperature and water activity (0.991–0.930) on the growth dynamic of E. coli PSII were analysed. Based on the growth curves obtained, growth parameters were calculated by using the Baranyi D-model. Growth parameters were further analysed in secondary phase of predictive modelling. Using the CM model that describes the effect of combined factors, cardinal values (Tmin = 4.8 ± 0.4 °C, Topt = 41.1 ± 0.8 °C, Tmax = 48.3 ± 0.9 °C, awmin = 0.932 ± 0.001, and awopt = 0.997 ± 0.003) for the isolate were calculated. Under optimal conditions, the specific growth rate is µopt = 2.84 ± 0.08 h−1. The results obtained may contribute to the assessment of the risk associated with the possible E. coli presence in raw materials and to the search for preventive measures with defined degree of accuracy and reliability.

Modeling Invasion of Campylobacter jejuni into Human Small Intestinal Epithelial-Like Cells by Bayesian Inference

Current approaches used for dose-response modeling of low-dose exposures of pathogens rely on assumptions and extrapolations. These models are important for quantitative microbial risk assessment of food. A mechanistic framework has been advocated as an alternative approach for evaluating dose-response relationships. The objectives of this study were to investigate the invasion behavior of Campylobacter jejuni, which could arise as a foodborne illness even if there are low counts of pathogens, into Caco-2 cells as a model of intestinal cells and to develop a mathematical model for invading cell counts to reveal a part of the infection dose-response mechanism. Monolayer-cultured Caco-2 cells and various concentrations of C. jejuni in culture were cocultured for up to 12 h. The numbers of C. jejuni bacteria invading Caco-2 cells were determined after coculture for different time periods. There appeared to be a maximum limit to the invading bacterial counts, which showed an asymptotic exponential increase. The invading bacterial counts were higher with higher exposure concentrations (maximum, 5.0 log CFU/cm²) than with lower exposure concentrations (minimum, 0.6 log CFU/cm²). In contrast, the ratio of invading bacteria (number of invading bacteria divided by the total number of bacteria exposed) showed a similar trend regardless of the exposure concentration. Invasion of C. jejuni into intestinal cells was successfully demonstrated and described by the developed differential equation model with Bayesian inference. The model accuracy showed that the 99% prediction band covered more than 97% of the observed values. These findings provide important information on mechanistic pathogen dose-response relationships and an alternative approach for dose-response modeling.IMPORTANCE One of the infection processes of C. jejuni, the invasion behavior of the bacteria in intestinal epithelial cells, was revealed, and a mathematical model for prediction of the cell-invading pathogen counts was developed for the purpose of providing part of a dose-response model for C. jejuni based on the infection mechanism. The developed predictive model showed a high accuracy of more than 97% and successfully described the C. jejuni invading counts. The bacterial invasion predictive model of this study will be essential for the development of a dose-response model for C. jejuni based on the infection mechanism.

Microbiological and process variability using biological indicators of inactivation (BIIs) based on Bacillus cereus spores of food and fish-based animal by-products to evaluate microwave heating in a pilot plant

Microwave processing can be a valid alternative to conventional heating for different types of products. It enables a more efficient heat transfer in the food matrix, resulting in higher quality products. However, for many food products a uniform temperature distribution is not possible because of heterogeneities in their physical properties and non-uniformtiy in the electric field pattern. Hence, the effectiveness of microwave inactivation treatments is influenced by both intrinsic (differences between cells) and extrinsic variability (non-uniform temperature). Interpreting the results of the process and considering its impact on microbial inactivation is essential to ensure effective and efficient processing. In this work, we quantified the variability in microbial inactivation attained in a microwave pasteurization treatment with a tunnel configuration at pilot-plant scale. The configuration of the equipment makes it impossible to measure the product temperature during treatment. For that reason, variability in microbial counts was measured using Biological Inactivation Indicators (BIIs) based on spherical particles of alginate inoculated with spores of Bacillus spp. The stability of the BIIs and the uncertainty associated to them was assessed using preliminary experiments in a thermoresistometer. Then, they were introduced in the food product to analyse the microbial inactivation in different points of the products during the microwave treatment. Experiments were made in a vegetable soup and a fish-based animal by-product (F-BP). The results show that the variation in the microbial counts was higher than expected based on the biological variability estimated in the thermoresistometer and the uncertainty of the BIIs. This is due to heterogeneities in the temperature field (measured using a thermographic camera), which were higher in the F-BP than in the vegetable soup. Therefore, for the process studied, extrinsic variability was more relevant than intrinsic variability. The methodology presented in this work can be a valid method to evaluate pasteurization treatments of foods processed by heating, providing valuable information of the microbial inactivation achieved. It can contribute to design microwave processes for different types of products and for product optimization.

Training in tools to develop Quantitative Risk Assessment using Spanish ready-to-eat food examples

Unsafe food poses global health threats, potentially endangering consumers. The great majority of people will experience a food-borne disease at some point in their lives. Ready-to-eat (RTE) food is the one intended by the producer or the manufacturer for direct human consumption without the need for cooking or other processing effective to eliminate or reduce the concentration of pathogenic microorganisms. Prepared foods are often complex and may contain multiple components that make them vulnerable for growth of pathogenic microorganisms. Among all the pathogenic microorganisms that may be present in RTE foods, Listeria monocytogenes is of special interest because it is the causative agent of listeriosis and it has the ability to survive and replicate at refrigeration and low pH conditions. We performed a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) in RTE dry-fermented sausage to measure the risk of listeriosis associated to the consumption of this product. The starting point of our investigation was the storage at the factory, after the end-product was produced and before distribution to retail. The stochastic model was implemented in MicroHibro, an online tool for QMRA. Because L. monocytogenes concentration and prevalence can vary greatly between different studies and different types of fermented sausages, we tested different scenarios to show the importance of low prevalence and concentration of the pathogen at the final product. Our results show that the risk estimates are very sensitive to the modelling hypotheses used to describe this process. Therefore, the development of accurate probabilistic models describing the initial concentration of L. monocytogenes shall largely reduce the uncertainty associated to the QMRA of listeriosis in this type of product.