Effect of IQOS introduction on Philip Morris International cigarette sales in Spain: a Logarithmic Mean Divisa Index decomposition approach

Impact of the Spanish smoke-free laws on cigarette sales by brands, 2000-2021: Evidence from a club convergence approach

INTRODUCTION

In January 2006, the Spanish government enacted a tobacco control law that banned the advertising, promotion and sponsorship of tobacco. In January 2011, further legislation on this matter was adopted to provide a more restrictive specification of the ban. In this study, we analyze the effect produced on cigarette sales by these two prohibitions. We address this problem using a cluster time-series analysis to test whether the sales of cigarettes by brands have been homogenized with the prohibition of advertising, promotion, and sponsorship.

METHODS

The data source used was the official data on legal sales of cigarettes by brands in Spain, from January 2005 to December 2021 (excluding the Canary Islands and the Autonomous Communities of the cities of Ceuta and Melilla). To achieve our objective, we used log(t) test statistics to check if there is global convergence in the three selected periods according to the regulatory changes that have occurred in Spain (2005-2021, 2005-2010 and 2011-2021). Second, once absolute convergence is rejected, we applied a clustering algorithm to test for the existence of subgroup convergence.

RESULTS

The cigarette brands that have been marketed during the period 2005-2021 (n=40), can only be grouped into three groups according to the behavior of their sales. When we focus on the period 2005-2010 (n=74), cigarette brands are grouped into five groups according to their sales behavior. Finally, the cigarette brands marketed during the period 2011-2021 (n=67) are grouped into three groups according to the temporal evolution of their sales. These results suggest a greater homogenization of cigarette sales after the application of the law of January 2011.

CONCLUSIONS

Act 42/2010 (total ban on tobacco advertising, promotion, and sponsorship actions) was associated with greater homogenization of cigarette sales than the application of Act 28/2005 (partial ban). This finding supports what is established in the previous literature that indicates that Act 42/2010 provided a more restrictive specification of the ban than Act 28/2005.

A Machine Learning Approach Reveals Distinct Predictors of Vaping Dependence for Adolescent Daily and Non-Daily Vapers in the COVID-19 Era

Since 2016, there has been a substantial rise in e-cigarette (vaping) dependence among young people. In this prospective cohort study, we aimed to identify the different predictors of vaping dependence over 3 months among adolescents who were baseline daily and non-daily vapers. We recruited ever-vaping Canadian residents aged 16-25 years on social media platforms and asked them to complete a baseline survey in November 2020. A validated vaping dependence score (0-23) summing up their responses to nine questions was calculated at the 3-month follow-up survey. Separate lasso regression models were developed to identify predictors of higher 3-month vaping dependence score among baseline daily and non-daily vapers. Of the 1172 participants, 643 (54.9%) were daily vapers with a mean age of 19.6 ± 2.6 years and 76.4% (n = 895) of them being female. The two models achieved adequate predictive performance. Place of last vape purchase, number of days a pod lasts, and the frequency of nicotine-containing vaping were the most important predictors for dependence among daily vapers, while race, sexual orientation and reporting treatment for heart disease were the most important predictors in non-daily vapers. These findings have implications for vaping control policies that target adolescents at different stages of vape use.

Electronic device or regulated tobacco product? Learning from the diffusion of heated tobacco products in Spain

OBJECTIVES

Tobacco companies have introduced heated tobacco product (HTP) in many countries and marketed it on the grounds that it is a less harmful alternative to health. However, tobacco companies have been widely criticized for taking advantage of a loophole that allows electronic devices to circumvent regulations limiting tobacco advertising. This work aims to determine whether HTPs respected the rules that regulate tobacco advertising when it was introduced in Spain.

STUDY DESIGN

This is an observational epidemiological study.

METHODS

Using monthly time series data from September 2016 to June 2020, we analyzed whether the adoption of HTPs has followed the same behavior patterns as other brands that were introduced under the same conditions of use. The Bass model is used to analyze the diffusion of HTPs, and 30 other traditional cigarette brands introduced under the same conditions as this HTPs.

RESULTS

The adoption of HTPs in Spain has been like that of brands of slim cigarettes that are mistakenly considered to be healthier than traditional cigarettes. The results indicate that the use of HTPs has spread in the same way as additive-free and ultra-slim cigarette brands.

CONCLUSIONS

Policymakers should keep in mind that laws should restrict any marketing of tobacco products that promotes positive connotations between tobacco use and being healthy. If manufacturers are allowed to classify a category and/or brand of tobacco products as less harmful to health, the imitation effect is very high, leading to the proliferation of smoking.

Factors Influencing Smoking among Multicultural Adolescents

Since an increasing number of multicultural adolescents have started smoking in Korean society, it is necessary to check the smoking status among multicultural adolescents and provide differentiated smoking cessation education and awareness through intervention programs. This study examined the factors that influenced smoking among multicultural adolescents and identified interventions. This study was a cross-sectional survey. It used raw data from the 15th Korea Youth Risk Behavior Web-based Survey (KYRBS) of 2019. Of the 57,303 participants in the 15th KYRBS, 749 were multicultural adolescents, i.e., their fathers or mothers were not born in Korea. The factors affecting smoking among multicultural adolescents were determined using a composite sample multiple logistic regression analysis. The results of the composite sample multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that 41 (6.4%) participants were smokers, had low academic performance levels, drank alcohol, were sexually active, and were more likely to smoke with other adolescents. They were 15.79 times more likely to smoke while drinking than when not drinking. Educational and psychological interventions are needed to increase multicultural youth school adaptation and academic performance levels, reduce health risk behaviors (drinking and sexually active), and ultimately, lower the smoking rate.

Changes in the Patterns and Characteristics of Youth ENDS Use over Time

Research on youth use of electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) has explored the correlates of initiation and use; however, little is known about the factors that predict continued youth use of ENDS. We used an ecological momentary assessment (EMA) burst design to explore both daily variability within adolescents over a two-week observation period and variability over time two years later (2018 and 2020). The contribution of device characteristics, motivations for use, contextual factors, and community factors to daily use occasions were explored. Youth participants (n = 35) at the start of the study were past two-week nicotine vapers, 14 to 17 years old, who resided within 100 miles of Louisville, KY, and reported past two-week ENDS use. Close to a quarter of participants ceased all tobacco use two years later, suggesting that some youth, despite prior regular vaping habits, may have only been experimenting with ENDS. The regular continued use of ENDS was predicted by trying to quit using cigarettes, appealing flavors, and being in locations where cigarette use was prohibited. Except for flavors, these factors did not affect ENDS use in year one. These findings suggest that tobacco policy might target ENDS use by prohibiting all tobacco use, including ENDS, in locations where smoking is already banned.