Alternative pathways to a sustainable future lead to contrasting biodiversity responses

Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050

Based on an extensive model intercomparison, we assessed trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from historical reconstructions and future scenarios of land-use and climate change. During the 20th century, biodiversity declined globally by 2 to 11%, as estimated by a range of indicators. Provisioning ecosystem services increased several fold, and regulating services decreased moderately. Going forward, policies toward sustainability have the potential to slow biodiversity loss resulting from land-use change and the demand for provisioning services while reducing or reversing declines in regulating services. However, negative impacts on biodiversity due to climate change appear poised to increase, particularly in the higher-emissions scenarios. Our assessment identifies remaining modeling uncertainties but also robustly shows that renewed policy efforts are needed to meet the goals of the Convention on Biological Diversity.

Winners and losers of land use change: A systematic review of interactions between the world’s crane species ( Gruidae ) and the agricultural sector

While agricultural intensification and expansion are major factors driving loss and degradation of natural habitat and species decline, some wildlife species also benefit from agriculturally managed habitats. This may lead to high population densities with impacts on both human livelihoods and wildlife conservation. Cranes are a group of 15 species worldwide, affected both negatively and positively by agricultural practices. While eleven species face critical population declines, numbers of common cranes (Grus grus) and sandhill cranes (Grus canadensis) have increased drastically in the last 40 years. Their increase is associated with higher incidences of crane foraging on agricultural crops, causing financial losses to farmers. Our aim was to synthesize scientific knowledge on the bilateral effects of land use change and crane populations. We conducted a systematic literature review of peer‐reviewed publications on agriculture‐crane interactions (n = 135) and on the importance of agricultural crops in the diet of cranes (n = 81). Agricultural crops constitute a considerable part of the diet of all crane species (average of 37%, most frequently maize (Zea mays L.) and wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)). Crop damage was identified in only 10% of all agriculture‐crane interactions, although one‐third of interactions included cranes foraging on cropland. Using a conceptual framework analysis, we identified two major pathways in agriculture‐crane interactions: (1) habitat loss with negative effects on crane species dependent on specific habitats, and (2) expanding agricultural habitats with superabundant food availability beneficial for opportunistic crane species. The degree to which crane species can adapt to agricultural land use changes may be an important factor explaining their population response. We conclude that multi‐objective management needs to combine land sparing and land sharing strategies at landscape scale. To support viable crane populations while guaranteeing sustainable agricultural production, it is necessary to include the perspectives of diverse stakeholders and streamline conservation initiatives and agricultural policy accordingly.

Sustainable use of tropical fruits? Challenges and opportunities of applying the waste-to-value concept to international value chains

Agriculture and food science literature on waste-to-value applications that allow upcycling of by-product ingredients is increasing. However, this stream of research rarely takes an international trade and sustainability systems perspective. This focused review defines the term of waste-to-value and the sustainable development goals connected to it, and points to the tensions and questions arising when international trade is involved. Further, it exemplifies the challenges and opportunities of waste-to-value in tropical fruit trade through five cases of tropical fruit from South America: Green coconut, açaí, maracujá, cambuci, and jabuticaba. We present a model of the international supply chain that indicates where the opportunities of waste-to-value applications in international tropical fruit trade are situated, and discuss which future research questions need to be addressed to tackle the challenges of waste-to-value in global tropical fruit chains. Establishing the waste-to-value approach in the export of yet-underused tropical fruits can amongst others improve local employment, preserve natural resources, allow favorable use of side-streams in local energy production, environmentally friendly packaging material for transport, and add health functionalities to the end-consumer products, but challenges have to be solved in order to ensure these environmental and social benefits materialize.