Positive selection operates continuously on hemagglutinin during evolution of H3N2 human influenza A virus

Antigenic drift and subtype interference shape A(H3N2) epidemic dynamics in the United States

Influenza viruses continually evolve new antigenic variants, through mutations in epitopes of their major surface proteins, hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA). Antigenic drift potentiates the reinfection of previously infected individuals, but the contribution of this process to variability in annual epidemics is not well understood. Here, we link influenza A(H3N2) virus evolution to regional epidemic dynamics in the United States during 1997-2019. We integrate phenotypic measures of HA antigenic drift and sequence-based measures of HA and NA fitness to infer antigenic and genetic distances between viruses circulating in successive seasons. We estimate the magnitude, severity, timing, transmission rate, age-specific patterns, and subtype dominance of each regional outbreak and find that genetic distance based on broad sets of epitope sites is the strongest evolutionary predictor of A(H3N2) virus epidemiology. Increased HA and NA epitope distance between seasons correlates with larger, more intense epidemics, higher transmission, greater A(H3N2) subtype dominance, and a greater proportion of cases in adults relative to children, consistent with increased population susceptibility. Based on random forest models, A(H1N1) incidence impacts A(H3N2) epidemics to a greater extent than viral evolution, suggesting that subtype interference is a major driver of influenza A virus infection ynamics, presumably via heterosubtypic cross-immunity.

Antigenic drift and subtype interference shape A(H3N2) epidemic dynamics in the United States

Influenza viruses continually evolve new antigenic variants, through mutations in epitopes of their major surface proteins, hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA). Antigenic drift potentiates the reinfection of previously infected individuals, but the contribution of this process to variability in annual epidemics is not well understood. Here we link influenza A(H3N2) virus evolution to regional epidemic dynamics in the United States during 1997-2019. We integrate phenotypic measures of HA antigenic drift and sequence-based measures of HA and NA fitness to infer antigenic and genetic distances between viruses circulating in successive seasons. We estimate the magnitude, severity, timing, transmission rate, age-specific patterns, and subtype dominance of each regional outbreak and find that genetic distance based on broad sets of epitope sites is the strongest evolutionary predictor of A(H3N2) virus epidemiology. Increased HA and NA epitope distance between seasons correlates with larger, more intense epidemics, higher transmission, greater A(H3N2) subtype dominance, and a greater proportion of cases in adults relative to children, consistent with increased population susceptibility. Based on random forest models, A(H1N1) incidence impacts A(H3N2) epidemics to a greater extent than viral evolution, suggesting that subtype interference is a major driver of influenza A virus infection dynamics, presumably via heterosubtypic cross-immunity.

Modeling the selective advantage of new amino acids on the hemagglutinin of H1N1 influenza viruses using their patient age distributions

In 2009, a new strain of H1N1 influenza A virus caused a pandemic, and its descendant strains are causing seasonal epidemics worldwide. Given the high mutation rate of influenza viruses, variant strains having different amino acids on hemagglutinin (HA) continuously emerge. To prepare vaccine strains for the next influenza seasons, it is an urgent task to predict which variants will be selected in the viral population. An analysis of 24,681 pairs of an amino acid sequence of HA of H1N1pdm2009 viruses and its patient age showed that the empirical fixation probability of new amino acids on HA significantly differed depending on their frequencies in the population, patient age distributions, and epitope flags. The selective advantage of a variant strain having a new amino acid was modeled by linear combinations of patients age distributions and epitope flags, and then the fixation probability of the new amino acid was modeled using Kimura’s formula for advantageous selection. The parameters of models were estimated from the sequence data and models were tested with four-fold cross validations. The frequency of new amino acids alone can achieve high sensitivity, specificity, and precision in predicting the fixation of a new amino acid of which frequency is more than 0.11. The estimated parameter suggested that viruses with a new amino acid having a frequency in the population higher than 0.11 have a significantly higher selective advantage compared to viruses with the old amino acid at the same position. The model considering the Z-value of patient age rank-sums of new amino acids predicted amino acid substitutions on HA with a sensitivity of 0.78, specificity of 0.86, and precision of 0.83, showing significant improvement compared to the constant selective advantage model, which used only the frequency of the amino acid. These results suggested that H1N1 viruses tend to be selected in the adult population, and frequency of viruses having new amino acids and their patient ages are useful to predict amino acid substitutions on HA.

Identification and Characterization of Novel Antibody Epitopes on the N2 Neuraminidase

The influenza virus neuraminidase (NA) is becoming a focus for novel vaccine designs. However, the epitopes of human anti-NA antibodies have been poorly defined. Using a panel of 10 anti-N2 monoclonal antibodies (MAbs) that bind the H3N2 virus A/Switzerland/9715293/2013, we generated five escape mutant viruses. These viruses contained mutations K199E/T, E258K, A272D, and S331N. We found that mutations at K199 and E258 had the largest impact on MAb binding, NA inhibition and neutralization activity. In addition, a natural isolate from the 2017-2018 season was found to contain the E258K mutation and was resistant to numerous antibodies tested. The mutation S331N, was identified in virus passaged in the presence of antibody; however, it had little impact on MAb activity and greatly decreased viral fitness. This information aids in identifying novel human MAb epitopes on the N2 and helps with the detection of antigenically drifted NAs.

IMPORTANCE The influenza virus neuraminidase is an emerging target for universal influenza virus vaccines. However, in contrast to influenza virus hemagglutinin, we know little about antibody epitopes and antigenic sites on the neuraminidase. Characterizing and defining these sites is aiding vaccine development and helping to understand antigenic drift of NA.

Substantial Antigenic Drift in the Hemagglutinin Protein of Swine Influenza A Viruses

The degree of antigenic drift in swine influenza A viruses (swIAV) has historically been regarded as minimal compared to that of human influenza A virus strains. However, as surveillance activities on swIAV have increased, more isolates have been characterized, revealing a high level of genetic and antigenic differences even within the same swIAV lineage. The objective of this study was to investigate the level of genetic drift in one enzootically infected swine herd over one year. Nasal swabs were collected monthly from sows (n = 4) and piglets (n = 40) in the farrowing unit, and from weaners (n = 20) in the nursery. Virus from 1-4 animals were sequenced per month. Analyses of the sequences revealed that the hemagglutinin (HA) gene was the main target for genetic drift with a substitution rate of 7.6 × 10-3 substitutions/site/year and evidence of positive selection. The majority of the mutations occurred in the globular head of the HA protein and in antigenic sites. The phylogenetic tree of the HA sequences displayed a pectinate typology, where only a single lineage persists and forms the ancestor for subsequent lineages. This was most likely caused by repeated selection of a single immune-escape variant, which subsequently became the founder of the next wave of infections.

Sequence amplification via cell passaging creates spurious signals of positive adaptation in influenza virus H3N2 hemagglutinin

Clinical influenza A virus isolates are frequently not sequenced directly. Instead, a majority of these isolates (~70% in 2015) are first subjected to passaging for amplification, most commonly in non-human cell culture. Here, we find that this passaging leaves distinct signals of adaptation, which can confound evolutionary analyses of the viral sequences. We find distinct patterns of adaptation to Madin-Darby (MDCK) and monkey cell culture absent from unpassaged hemagglutinin sequences. These patterns also dominate pooled datasets not separated by passaging type, and they increase in proportion to the number of passages performed. By contrast, MDCK-SIAT1 passaged sequences seem mostly (but not entirely) free of passaging adaptations. Contrary to previous studies, we find that using only internal branches of influenza virus phylogenetic trees is insufficient to correct for passaging artifacts. These artifacts can only be safely avoided by excluding passaged sequences entirely from subsequent analysis. We conclude that future influenza virus evolutionary analyses should appropriately control for potentially confounding effects of passaging adaptations.

The effects of a deleterious mutation load on patterns of influenza A/H3N2's antigenic evolution in humans

Recent phylogenetic analyses indicate that RNA virus populations carry a significant deleterious mutation load. This mutation load has the potential to shape patterns of adaptive evolution via genetic linkage to beneficial mutations. Here, we examine the effect of deleterious mutations on patterns of influenza A subtype H3N2's antigenic evolution in humans. By first analyzing simple models of influenza that incorporate a mutation load, we show that deleterious mutations, as expected, act to slow the virus's rate of antigenic evolution, while making it more punctuated in nature. These models further predict three distinct molecular pathways by which antigenic cluster transitions occur, and we find phylogenetic patterns consistent with each of these pathways in influenza virus sequences. Simulations of a more complex phylodynamic model further indicate that antigenic mutations act in concert with deleterious mutations to reproduce influenza's spindly hemagglutinin phylogeny, co-circulation of antigenic variants, and high annual attack rates.

DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.07361.001

Each year, up to 15% of the world's population experience symptoms of an influenza infection, also commonly known as flu. The most common culprit is a strain of the virus called influenza type A subtype H3N2. One reason that so many people become infected each year is that this virus evolves rapidly. Within a few years, proteins on the surface of the virus known as antigens become less recognizable to the immune system of a person who has been previously infected. This means that the person can become ill with the virus again because their immune system cannot mount an effective response to the evolved virus strain.

Influenza virus strains evolve rapidly because their genetic material accumulates mutations quickly. Although some of these mutations are beneficial to the virus, other mutations are harmful and reduce the ability of the virus to spread. Sometimes beneficial mutations may occur alongside harmful ones, but it is not known how the harmful mutations affect the evolution of the virus.

Here, Koelle and Rasmussen used computer models of H3N2 influenza to examine the effect of harmful mutations on the evolution of this virus population. The models show that harmful mutations limit how quickly the antigens can evolve. Also, the presence of these harmful mutations effectively acts as a sieve: they allow only large changes in the antigens to establish in the virus population.

The models suggest that there are three routes by which large changes in the antigens on H3N2 viruses may occur. The first is by a single mutation that has a big effect on the antigens in viruses that only carry a few harmful mutations, but these large mutations would not happen very often. Another route may be through more common mutations that have only a small or moderate benefit, which would allow the virus to become more common in the population before it acquires a beneficial mutation with a much greater effect. The third possibility is that a large beneficial mutation may arise in viruses that have many harmful mutations. These harmful mutations may initially limit the ability of the virus to spread, but over time, some of these harmful mutations may then be lost.

Koelle and Rasmussen found that the computer models could recreate the patterns of virus evolution that have been observed in real strains of H3N2. Researchers use predictions of influenza evolution to help them decide which virus strains should be included in flu vaccines each year. Koelle and Rasmussen findings indicate that harmful mutations should be considered when making these predictions.

DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.07361.002

Selecting vaccine strains for H3N2 human influenza A virus

H3N2 human influenza A virus causes epidemics of influenza mainly in the winter season in temperate regions. Since the antigenicity of this virus evolves rapidly, several attempts have been made to predict the major amino acid sequence of hemagglutinin 1 (HA1) in the target season of vaccination. However, the usefulness of predicted sequence was unclear because its relationship to the antigenicity was unknown. Here the antigenic model for estimating the degree of antigenic difference (antigenic distance) between amino acid sequences of HA1 was integrated into the process of selecting vaccine strains for H3N2 human influenza A virus. When the effectiveness of a potential vaccine strain for a target season was evaluated retrospectively using the average antigenic distance between the strain and the epidemic viruses sampled in the target season, the most effective vaccine strain was identified mostly in the season one year before the target season (pre-target season). Effectiveness of actual vaccines appeared to be lower than that of the strains randomly chosen in the pre-target season on average. It was recommended to replace the vaccine strain for every target season with the strain having the smallest average antigenic distance to the others in the pre-target season. The procedure of selecting vaccine strains for future epidemic seasons described in the present study was implemented in the influenza virus forecasting system (INFLUCAST) (http://www.nsc.nagoya-cu.ac.jp/~yossuzuk/influcast.html).

A genotype network reveals homoplastic cycles of convergent evolution in influenza A (H3N2) haemagglutinin

Networks of evolving genotypes can be constructed from the worldwide time-resolved genotyping of pathogens like influenza viruses. Such genotype networks are graphs where neighbouring vertices (viral strains) differ in a single nucleotide or amino acid. A rich trove of network analysis methods can help understand the evolutionary dynamics reflected in the structure of these networks. Here, I analyse a genotype network comprising hundreds of influenza A (H3N2) haemagglutinin genes. The network is rife with cycles that reflect non-random parallel or convergent (homoplastic) evolution. These cycles also show patterns of sequence change characteristic for strong and local evolutionary constraints, positive selection and mutation-limited evolution. Such cycles would not be visible on a phylogenetic tree, illustrating that genotype network analysis can complement phylogenetic analyses. The network also shows a distinct modular or community structure that reflects temporal more than spatial proximity of viral strains, where lowly connected bridge strains connect different modules. These and other organizational patterns illustrate that genotype networks can help us study evolution in action at an unprecedented level of resolution.

Dengue virus type 3 adaptive changes during epidemics in São Jose de Rio Preto, Brazil, 2006-2007

Global dengue virus spread in tropical and sub-tropical regions has become a major international public health concern. It is evident that DENV genetic diversity plays a significant role in the immunopathology of the disease and that the identification of polymorphisms associated with adaptive responses is important for vaccine development. The investigation of naturally occurring genomic variants may play an important role in the comprehension of different adaptive strategies used by these mutants to evade the human immune system. In order to elucidate this role we sequenced the complete polyprotein-coding region of thirty-three DENV-3 isolates to characterize variants circulating under high endemicity in the city of São José de Rio Preto, Brazil, during the onset of the 2006-07 epidemic. By inferring the evolutionary history on a local-scale and estimating rates of synonymous (dS) and nonsynonimous (dN) substitutions, we have documented at least two different introductions of DENV-3 into the city and detected 10 polymorphic codon sites under significant positive selection (dN/dS > 1) and 8 under significant purifying selection (dN/dS < 1). We found several polymorphic amino acid coding sites in the envelope (15), NS1 (17), NS2A (11), and NS5 (24) genes, which suggests that these genes may be experiencing relatively recent adaptive changes. Furthermore, some polymorphisms correlated with changes in the immunogenicity of several epitopes. Our study highlights the existence of significant and informative DENV variability at the spatio-temporal scale of an urban outbreak.

The roles of competition and mutation in shaping antigenic and genetic diversity in influenza

Influenza A (H3N2) offers a well-studied, yet not fully understood, disease in terms of the interactions between pathogen population dynamics, epidemiology and genetics. A major open question is why the virus population is globally dominated by a single and very recently diverged (2-8 years) lineage. Classically, this has been modeled by limiting the generation of new successful antigenic variants, such that only a small subset of progeny acquire the necessary mutations to evade host immunity. An alternative approach was recently suggested by Recker et al. in which a limited number of antigenic variants are continuously generated, but most of these are suppressed by pre-existing host population immunity. Here we develop a framework spanning the regimes described above to explore the impact of rates of mutation and levels of competition on phylodynamic patterns. We find that the evolutionary dynamics of the subtype H3N2 influenza is most easily generated within this framework when it is mutation limited as well as being under strong immune selection at a number of epitope regions of limited diversity.

Positive selection for gains of N-linked glycosylation sites in hemagglutinin during evolution of H3N2 human influenza A virus

The number of N-linked glycosylation sites in the globular head of hemagglutinin (HA) has increased during evolution of H3N2 human influenza A virus. Here natural selection operating on the gains of N-linked glycosylation sites was examined by using the single-site analysis and the single-substitution analysis. In the single-site analysis, positive selection was not inferred at the amino acid sites where the substitutions generating N-linked glycosylation sites were observed, but was detected at antigenic sites. In contrast, in the single-substitution analysis, positive selection was detected for the amino acid substitutions generating N-linked glycosylation sites. The single-site analysis and the single-substitution analysis appeared to be suitable for detecting recurrent and episodic natural selection, respectively. The gains of N-linked glycosylation sites were likely to be positively selected for the function of shielding antigenic sites from immune responses. At the antigenic sites, positive selection appeared to have operated not only on the radical substitution but also on the conservative substitution in terms of the charge of amino acids, suggesting that the antigenic drift is not a by-product of the evolution of receptor binding avidity in HA of human H3N2 virus.

Compensatory evolution of net-charge in influenza A virus hemagglutinin

The propagation of influenza A virus depends on the balance between the activities of hemagglutinin (HA) for binding to host cells and neuraminidase (NA) for releasing from infected cells (HA-NA balance). Since the host cell membrane and the sialic acid receptor are negatively charged, the amino acid substitutions increasing (charge+) and decreasing (charge−) the positive charge of HA subunit 1 (HA1) enhance and reduce, respectively, the binding avidity and affinity. The positive charge of HA1 in human influenza A virus bearing subtype H3N2 (A/H3N2 virus) was observed to have increased during evolution, but the evolutionary mechanism for this observation was unclear because this may disrupt the HA-NA balance. Here we show, from the phylogenetic analysis of HA for human A/H3N2 and A/H1N1 viruses, that the relative frequencies of charge+ and charge− substitutions were elevated on the branches where the number of N-glycosylation sites (NGS) increased and decreased, respectively, compared to those where the number of NGS did not change. On the latter branches, the net-charge of HA1 appeared to have been largely maintained to preserve its structure and function. Since the charge+ and charge− substitutions in HA1 have opposite effects to the gain and loss of NGS on the binding and release of the virus, the net-charge of HA1 may have evolved to compensate for the effect of the gain and loss of NGS, probably through changing the avidity. Apparently, the relative frequency of charge− substitutions in HA1 of A/H3N2 virus was elevated after the introduction of oseltamivir, and that of charge+ substitutions in HA1 of A/H1N1 virus was elevated after the spread of oseltamivir resistance. These observations may also be explained by the compensatory effect of the net-charge in HA1 on the NA activity for keeping the HA-NA balance.

Genetic structure of human A/H1N1 and A/H3N2 influenza virus on Corsica Island: phylogenetic analysis and vaccine strain match, 2006-2010

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to analyse the genetic patterns of Hemagglutinin (HA) genes of influenza A strains circulating on Corsica Island during the 2006-2009 epidemic seasons and the 2009-2010 pandemic season.

METHODS

Nasopharyngeal samples from 371 patients with influenza-like illness (ILI) were collected by General Practitioners (GPs) of the Sentinelles Network through a randomised selection routine.

RESULTS

Phylogenetic analysis of HA revealed that A/H3N2 strains circulating on Corsica were closely related to the WHO recommended vaccine strains in each analyzed season (2006-2007 to 2008-2009). Seasonal Corsican influenza A/H1N1 isolated during the 2007-2008 season had drifted towards the A/Brisbane/59/2007 lineage, the A/H1N1 vaccine strain for the 2008-2009 season. The A/H1N1 2009 (A/H1N1pdm) strains isolated on Corsica Island were characterized by the S220T mutation specific to clade 7 isolates. It should be noted that Corsican isolates formed a separate sub-clade of clade 7 as a consequence of the presence of the fixed substitution D222E. The percentages of the perfect match vaccine efficacy, estimated by using the p(epitope) model, against influenza viruses circulating on Corsica Island varied substantially across the four seasons analyzed, and tend to be highest for A/H1N1 compared with A/H3N2 vaccines, suggesting that cross-immunity seems to be stronger for the H1 HA gene.

CONCLUSION

The molecular analysis of the HA gene of influenza viruses that circulated on Corsica Island between 2006-2010 showed for each season the presence of a dominant lineage characterized by at least one fixed mutation. The A/H3N2 and A/H1N1pdm isolates were characterized by multiples fixation at antigenic sites. The fixation of specific mutations at each outbreak could be explained by the combination of a neutral phenomenon and a founder effect, favoring the presence of a dominant lineage in a closed environment such as Corsica Island.

Strength and tempo of selection revealed in viral gene genealogies

Background

RNA viruses evolve extremely quickly, allowing them to rapidly adapt to new environmental conditions. Viral pathogens, such as influenza virus, exploit this capacity for evolutionary change to persist within the human population despite substantial immune pressure. Understanding the process of adaptation in these viral systems is essential to our efforts to combat infectious disease.

Results

Through analysis of simulated populations and sequence data from influenza A (H3N2) and measles virus, we show how phylogenetic and population genetic techniques can be used to assess the strength and temporal pattern of adaptive evolution. The action of natural selection affects the shape of the genealogical tree connecting members of an evolving population, causing deviations from the neutral expectation. The magnitude and distribution of these deviations lends insight into the historical pattern of evolution and adaptation in the viral population. We quantify the degree of ongoing adaptation in influenza and measles virus through comparison of census population size and effective population size inferred from genealogical patterns, finding a 60-fold greater deviation in influenza than in measles. We also examine the tempo of adaptation in influenza, finding evidence for both continuous and episodic change.

Conclusions

Our results have important consequences for understanding the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of the influenza virus. Additionally, these general techniques may prove useful to assess the strength and pattern of adaptive evolution in a variety of evolving systems. They are especially powerful when assessing selection in fast-evolving populations, where temporal patterns become highly visible.

Molecular and genetic analysis of NS gene from high pathogenic strains of the avian influenza (H5N1) virus isolated in Kazakhstan

The high pathogenic strains of the avian influenza H5N1 virus isolated in Kazakhstan have NS of different genotypes. The influenza virus strains isolated in 2005 is of NS1E Qinghai genotype. A/swan/Mangystau/3/2006 strain is of NS2A genotype that is typical for Gs/Gd-like strains. The results of the analysis allow assuming that A/swan/Mangystau/3/2006 strain has been brought onto the territory of Kazakhstan from the European part of the continent along the Black Sea-Mediterranean flyway.

A two-tiered model for simulating the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of rapidly evolving viruses, with an application to influenza

Understanding the epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics of rapidly evolving pathogens is one of the most challenging problems facing disease ecologists today. To date, many mathematical and individual-based models have provided key insights into the factors that may regulate these dynamics. However, in many of these models, abstractions have been made to the simulated sequences that limit an effective interface with empirical data. This is especially the case for rapidly evolving viruses in which de novo mutations result in antigenically novel variants. With this focus, we present a simple two-tiered 'phylodynamic' model whose purpose is to simulate, along with case data, sequence data that will allow for a more quantitative interface with observed sequence data. The model differs from previous approaches in that it separates the simulation of the epidemiological dynamics (tier 1) from the molecular evolution of the virus's dominant antigenic protein (tier 2). This separation of phenotypic dynamics from genetic dynamics results in a modular model that is computationally simpler and allows sequences to be simulated with specifications such as sequence length, nucleotide composition and molecular constraints. To illustrate its use, we apply the model to influenza A (H3N2) dynamics in humans, influenza B dynamics in humans and influenza A (H3N8) dynamics in equine hosts. In all three of these illustrative examples, we show that the model can simulate sequences that are quantitatively similar in pattern to those empirically observed. Future work should focus on statistical estimation of model parameters for these examples as well as the possibility of applying this model, or variants thereof, to other host-virus systems.

Comparison of selection pressures on the HA gene of pandemic (2009) and seasonal human and swine influenza A H1 subtype viruses

The 2009 human pandemic influenza (H1N1) virus possesses the HA gene of the H1 subtype. The evolutionary process of the 2009 H1N1 virus remains to be defined. We performed genetic analyses of the HA gene by comparing the 2009 H1N1 virus with seasonal human and swine viruses. We analyzed sequences of 116 2009 H1N1 viruses, and obtained 1457 seasonal H1N1, 365 swine H1, and 1332 2009 H1N1 viruses from the database. Selection pressure for the 2009 H1N1 virus was higher than that for the swine virus and equivalent to that for the seasonal virus. Positions 206 and 264 were found to be positively selected sites. We also identified sites under different selection pressures from the seasonal or swine virus that may be involved in imparting significant biological characteristics. The evolutionary characteristics of the H1 gene of the 2009 H1N1 virus differed from those of seasonal and swine viruses.

Use of phylogenetics in the molecular epidemiology and evolutionary studies of viral infections

Since DNA sequencing techniques first became available almost 30 years ago, the amount of nucleic acid sequence data has increased enormously. Phylogenetics, which is widely applied to compare and analyze such data, is particularly useful for the analysis of genes from rapidly evolving viruses. It has been used extensively to describe the molecular epidemiology and transmission of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), the origins and subsequent evolution of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)-associated coronavirus (SCoV), and, more recently, the evolving epidemiology of avian influenza as well as seasonal and pandemic human influenza viruses. Recent advances in phylogenetic methods can infer more in-depth information about the patterns of virus emergence, adding to the conventional approaches in viral epidemiology. Examples of this information include estimations (with confidence limits) of the actual time of the origin of a new viral strain or its emergence in a new species, viral recombination and reassortment events, the rate of population size change in a viral epidemic, and how the virus spreads and evolves within a specific population and geographical region. Such sequence-derived information obtained from the phylogenetic tree can assist in the design and implementation of public health and therapeutic interventions. However, application of many of these advanced phylogenetic methods are currently limited to specialized phylogeneticists and statisticians, mainly because of their mathematical basis and their dependence on the use of a large number of computer programs. This review attempts to bridge this gap by presenting conceptual, technical, and practical aspects of applying phylogenetic methods in studies of influenza, HIV, and SCoV. It aims to provide, with minimal mathematics and statistics, a practical overview of how phylogenetic methods can be incorporated into virological studies by clinical and laboratory specialists.

Evolutionary analyses on the HA gene ofpandemic H1N1/09: early findings

The HA protein is responsible for influenza virus attachment and the subsequent fusion of viral and cellular membranes. Antigenic drift is driven by an accumulation of point mutations in the HA. And, the receptor-binding specificity of HA is responsible for the host range restriction of the virus. In April 2009, large outbreaks of novel H1N1 influenza in human population were reported from North America. The pandemic H1N1 virus originated from swine influenza virus. Evolutionary process of the pandemic virus after its introduction to human population remains to be clarified. We conducted phylogenetic analyses constructing a phylogenetic tree for and calculating site-by-site selective pressures in the HA gene. Phylogenetic tree showed that pandemic viruses were not clustered clearly by their geographical location or isolation time in the phylogenetic tree. The virus has been circulating the globe extensively with multiple introductions into most geographical areas. We found 3 sites positively selected in the HA gene for pandemic H1N1 virus. Among them, position 206 is located in an antigenic site. We did not find significant negative selection on any of the receptor binding sites. The virus has been evolving under unique selective pressure.

[H1N1 influenza - pandemic, 2009]

In March, 2009, a novel strain of swine-origin influenza-A H1N1 caused human infection in Mexico, and spread to all regions in the world in the following three months. On June 11, 2009, the World Health Organization declared that a global pandemic of influenza A H1N1 was underway. This action was a reflection of the spread of the new H1N1 virus, not the severity of illness caused by the virus. As of October, 2009, there are about 400,000 confirmed cases and 5000 mortalities due to pandemic H1N1 all over the world. The symptoms are usually mild: fever, cough, sore throat, muscle aches, and they usually disappear spontaneously within 3-7 days. Recommendations suggest staying at home with mild symptoms, and avoiding the contact with other people. In case of warning signs of complications or emergency symptoms, medical care is required, and antiviral treatment, hospitalization might be needed. The most important duty against pandemic H1N1 is prevention, which means first of all the adherence of hygienic rules and the use of vaccination. Based on epidemiologic data and worldwide experiences on influenza vaccination, both seasonal and H1N1 vaccinations are recommended for anyone 6 months of age or older who is at risk of becoming ill or of transmitting the viruses to others. Pregnant women during the first trimester are not recommended for vaccination, due to the lack of experiences. Overall, the rates and seriousness of a possible complication of influenza vaccination are much smaller than the risk of serious complications and mortality of influenza infection.

Influenza A gradual and epochal evolution: insights from simple models

The recurrence of influenza A epidemics has originally been explained by a “continuous antigenic drift” scenario. Recently, it has been shown that if genetic drift is gradual, the evolution of influenza A main antigen, the haemagglutinin, is punctuated. As a consequence, it has been suggested that influenza A dynamics at the population level should be approximated by a serial model. Here, simple models are used to test whether a serial model requires gradual antigenic drift within groups of strains with the same antigenic properties (antigenic clusters). We compare the effect of status based and history based frameworks and the influence of reduced susceptibility and infectivity assumptions on the transient dynamics of antigenic clusters. Our results reveal that the replacement of a resident antigenic cluster by a mutant cluster, as observed in data, is reproduced only by the status based model integrating the reduced infectivity assumption. This combination of assumptions is useful to overcome the otherwise extremely high model dimensionality of models incorporating many strains, but relies on a biological hypothesis not obviously satisfied. Our findings finally suggest the dynamical importance of gradual antigenic drift even in the presence of punctuated immune escape. A more regular renewal of susceptible pool than the one implemented in a serial model should be part of a minimal theory for influenza at the population level.

The 2009 H1N1 influenza outbreak in its historical context

Of the 16 known serotypes of influenza A haemagglutinin, 6 have been isolated from humans at the molecular level (H1, H2, H3, H5, H7, H9). 3 of these have been involved in past pandemics (H1, H2, H3). Traditional pandemic surveillance has focussed on monitoring antigenic shift, meaning the re-assortment of novel haemagglutinins into seasonal human influenza A viruses during rare events of double infection with seasonal and zoonotic strains. H5, from avian H5N1 influenza, has been the major cause for concern in recent years. However, the 2009 H1N1 zoonotic event demonstrates that even serotypes already encountered in past human pandemics may constitute new pandemic threats. The protein sequence divergence of the 2009 zoonotic H1 from human seasonal influenza H1 is around 20-24%. A similar level of divergence is found between the 2009 H1 and European swine flu. By contrast, its divergence from North American swine flu strains is around 1-9%. Given that the divergence between H1 and its nearest serotype neighbour H2 is around 40-46%, the 2009 H1 may be broadly considered as halfway towards a new serotype. The current situation is one of antigenic pseudo-shift.