The dynamics of beef trade between Brazil and Russia and their environmental implications

Explaining the emergence of land-use frontiers

Land-use expansion is linked to major sustainability concerns including climate change, food security and biodiversity loss. This expansion is largely concentrated in so-called 'frontiers', defined here as places experiencing marked transformations owing to rapid resource exploitation. Understanding the mechanisms shaping these frontiers is crucial for sustainability. Previous work focused mainly on explaining how active frontiers advance, in particular, into tropical forests. Comparatively, our understanding of how frontiers emerge in territories considered marginal in terms of agricultural productivity and global market integration remains weak. We synthesize conceptual tools explaining resource and land-use frontiers, including theories of land rent and agglomeration economies, of frontiers as successive waves, spaces of territorialization, friction and opportunities, anticipation and expectation. We then propose a new theory of frontier emergence, which identifies exogenous pushes, legacies of past waves and actors' anticipations as key mechanisms by which frontiers emerge. Processes of differential rent creation and capture and the built-up of agglomeration economies then constitute key mechanisms sustaining active frontiers. Finally, we discuss five implications for the governance of frontiers for sustainability. Our theory focuses on agriculture and deforestation frontiers in the tropics but can be inspirational for other frontier processes including for extractive resources, such as minerals.

The spatiotemporal patterns and network characteristics of emissions embodied in the international trade of livestock products

Livestock production is greenhouse gas (GHG) emission intensive, and thus the increasing international trade of livestock products in recent decades has resulted in increased embodied emissions. Considering the varying emission intensity in production in different countries and the expected further increase in livestock product trade in the future, it becomes crucial to understand the spatial and temporal dynamics of such embodied GHG emissions for climate change mitigation in the livestock sector. In this study, we aimed to address such gaps and analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns and network characteristics of GHG emissions embodied in the international trade of seven major categories of livestock products among 228 world economies during 1986-2017. The results showed that the total volume of GHG emissions embodied in livestock product trade reached 92.0 MT in 2017, accounting for 2.6% of the total emissions from livestock production. Sheep meat has replaced cattle meat as the major contributor to embodied emissions. In 2017, the largest flows of embodied emissions were within Europe, followed by the flows from Oceania to Asia. The fluxes in intra-upper middle and intra-high-income economies accounted for most of the total embodied emissions. Although the global average emission intensity of livestock production declined in these four decades, the trade flows from high to low emission intensity economies increased, especially for cattle and sheep meat. This resulted in an overall increase of contribution from the global livestock trade in GHG emissions from the global livestock sector. Therefore, effective measures and policies must be designed from both consumption and production perspectives to ensure proper accounting of these embodied emissions and maximize the reduction potential for a sustainable food system transition.

Adjusting agricultural emissions for trade matters for climate change mitigation

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions in food systems is becoming more challenging as food is increasingly consumed away from producer regions, highlighting the need to consider emissions embodied in trade in agricultural emissions accounting. To address this, our study explores recent trends in trade-adjusted agricultural emissions of food items at the global, regional, and national levels. We find that emissions are largely dependent on a country’s consumption patterns and their agricultural emission intensities relative to their trading partners’. The absolute differences between the production-based and trade-adjusted emissions accounting approaches are especially apparent for major agricultural exporters and importers and where large shares of emission-intensive items such as ruminant meat, milk products and rice are involved. In relative terms, some low-income and emerging and developing economies with consumption of high emission intensity food products show large differences between approaches. Similar trends are also found under various specifications that account for trade and re-exports differently. These findings could serve as an important element towards constructing national emissions reduction targets that consider trading partners, leading to more effective emissions reductions overall.

Understanding emissions flow with trade matters for climate action. Trade-adjusted emission accounting would close the carbon loophole generated by trade for more effective climate action targeted at producers, consumers, and intermediary traders

Introducing the World's First Global Producer Price Indices for Beef Cattle and Sheep

Simple Summary

Global finished cattle and sheep production and prices are becoming increasingly volatile due to various demand, supply, animal disease, and environmental factors. With beef and sheep production systems being globally connected, an approach monitoring the developments of global meat prices as received by producers becomes increasingly important. This paper presents four global price indices for beef and sheep meat based on prices received by livestock producers obtained from 33 beef and 20 sheep producing countries. These indices are: finished cattle, weaner cattle and lambs producer price indices, as well as a lambs and sheep producer price index—all using an internationally standardized approach. These global indices and associated country and regional indices are used to monitor and explain developments in global beef cattle, lambs, and sheep prices over the index period 2000–2019. The global farmgate cattle and sheep prices have been mainly impacted by developments in global supply and demand, as well as changes in international market access. However, factors which are more local in nature, such as droughts, diseases, local economic developments, exchange rates and policy interventions, have also had a considerable impact on price developments.

Abstract

While international beef and sheep meat price developments are usually measured with meat trade prices (provided by FAO), no comparable information exists on world average of national prices that producers receive for livestock. This paper aims to fill this gap by introducing a set of global producer price indices representing cattle, lambs, and sheep prices as received by producers: the agri benchmark of weaner cattle, finished cattle, lambs and lambs and sheep price indices. These Laspeyres, production-weighted indices measure changes in global farm gate prices as provided annually by the agri benchmark Beef and Sheep Network, with this paper covering prices between 2000 and 2019. The results showed that growing Asian imports, local economic developments in South America, the interconnection with the dairy sector in Europe, growth of beef consumption in China and exchange rates shifts are the key factors that drove developments of global beef producer prices over the past 20 years. Droughts in Oceania and the rapid rise in China’s sheep meat prices are highly reflected in the Global Lambs and Lambs and Sheep Meat Price indices. The indices indicate whether cattle and sheep producers globally are receiving more, or less, for the commodity and may increase or reduce production and investment accordingly. This will be of more use if there were similar producer price indices for competing enterprises, such as dairy and cropping, and for competing proteins, such as pigs, poultry, and fish.

Toward Rigorous Telecoupling Causal Attribution: A Systematic Review and Typology

Telecoupled flows of people, organisms, goods, information, and energy are expanding across the globe. Causes are integral components of the telecoupling framework, yet the rigor with which they have been identified and evaluated to date is unknown. We address this knowledge gap by systematically reviewing causal attribution in the telecoupling literature (n = 89 studies) and developing a standardized causal terminology and typology for consistent use in telecoupling research. Causes are defined based on six criteria: sector (e.g., environmental, economic), system of origin (i.e., sending, receiving, spillover), agent, distance, response time (i.e., time lapse between cause and effect), and direction (i.e., producing positive or negative effects). Using case studies from the telecoupling literature, we demonstrate the need to enhance the rigor of telecoupling causal attribution by combining qualitative and quantitative methods via process-tracing, counterfactual analysis, and related approaches. Rigorous qualitative-quantitative causal attribution is critical for accurately assessing the social-ecological causes and consequences of telecouplings and thereby identifying leverage points for informed management and governance of telecoupled systems.