Effectiveness and Cost-Effectiveness of Endoscopic Screening and Surveillance

Missed Opportunities: the Timing and Frequency of Screening Colonoscopy in Patients That Develop Esophageal Adenocarcinoma

INTRODUCTION

Screening colonoscopy (SC) is widely accepted and has been shown to decrease the rate of colorectal cancer death. Guidelines and acceptance of screening for Barrett's esophagus (BE) are less established despite the fact that esophageal adenocarcinoma (EA) remains the fastest increasing cancer in the USA. The aim of this study was to assess the timing and frequency of SC in patients ultimately found to have EA and to evaluate the presence of symptoms and risk factors that might have prompted an esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) and potentially earlier diagnosis of the EA.

METHODS

A retrospective chart review was performed to identify all patients who were referred to a single center with esophageal cancer between July 2016 and November 2022. Patients with any histology other than adenocarcinoma were excluded.

RESULTS

There were 221 patients referred with EA. Of these, a SC had been done prior to the diagnosis of EA in 108 patients (49%): 96 men and 12 women. A total of 203 SC had been done (range 1-7 per patient), and 47% of patients had more than 1 SC. The median interval from the last SC to the diagnosis of EA was 2.9 years. At the time of SC, gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) symptoms or chronic acid suppression medication use was reported by 81% of patients, and 80% had an American Society of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ASGE) indication for a screening EGD. Only 19 patients (18%) that had a SC had an EGD at any time prior to the diagnosis of EA, and in these patients, 74% had erosive esophagitis or BE. The EA in most patients was stage III or IV and associated with lymph node metastases.

CONCLUSIONS

Nearly one-half of patients ultimately diagnosed with EA had one or more SCs, and most of these patients had GERD symptoms, were using acid suppression medications or had an ASGE indication for a screening EGD. Despite this, only 18% had an EGD prior to the EA diagnosis. The addition of an EGD at the time of SC in these patients may have allowed the detection of BE or EA at an early, endoscopically curable stage and represents a missed opportunity to intervene in the natural history of this disease.

Development and validation of a prediction model for histologic progression in patients with nondysplastic Barrett's esophagus

OBJECTIVES

Patients with Barrett's esophagus (BE) are at risk of progression to esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). We developed a model to predict histologic progression in patients with nondysplastic BE (NDBE).

METHODS

A longitudinal study in three referral centers was performed between January 2010 and December 2019. As progression to low-grade dysplasia (LGD) can be considered an indication for ablative therapy, the study end-point was histopathologic progression to LGD, high-grade dysplasia, or EAC at 3 years after diagnosis. We used logistic regression to create the model. Seventy percent of the cohort were used to stem the model and the remaining 30% for internal validation.

RESULTS

A total of 542 patients were included, 69.4% of whom were male, mean age 62.2 years. Long-segment BE at index endoscopy was diagnosed in 20.8% of the patients. After a mean follow-up of 6.7 years, 133 patients (24.5%) had histologic progression. Our model identified a neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (odds ratio [OR] 2.08, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.77-2.32, P < 0.001), BE length (OR 1.22, 95% CI 1.09-1.36, P < 0.001), age (OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.02-1.05, P = 0.02), smoking (OR 1.66, 95% CI 1.09-2.75, P = 0.04), and renal failure (OR 1.51, 95% CI 0.93-2.43, P = 0.07) as predictors of histologic progression at 3 years. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves of this model were 0.88 and 0.76 in the training and validation cohorts, respectively.

CONCLUSION

This novel, internally validated model may predict histologic progression, even in patients with NDBE who generally have low rates of progression over time, and may contribute to enhanced patient selection for more intense surveillance programs.

Cost-effectiveness Analysis of Radiofrequency Ablation in Patients With Barrett Esophagus and High-Grade Dysplasia or Low-Grade Dysplasia

PURPOSE

Clinical guidelines recommend radiofrequency ablation (RFA) for eradication of Barrett esophagus in patients with low-grade dysplasia (LGD) and high-grade dysplasia (HGD), but evidence on whether RFA provides good value for money is still sparse. This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of RFA in Italy.

METHODS

A Markov model was used to estimate lifelong costs and consequences of disease progression with different treatments. RFA was compared with esophagectomy in the HGD group or endoscopic surveillance in the LGD group. Clinical and quality-of-life parameters were derived from a review of the literature and expert opinions, whereas Italian national tariffs were used as a proxy for costs.

FINDINGS

RFA dominated esophagectomy in patients with HGD with a probability of 83%. For patients with LGD, RFA was more effective and more costly than active surveillance (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, €6276 per quality-adjusted life-year). At a cost-effectiveness threshold of €15,272, the probability of RFA being the optimal strategy in this population was close to 100%. Model results were sensitive to the cost of the interventions and utility weights used in the different disease states.

IMPLICATIONS

RFA is likely to be the optimal choice for patients with LGD and HGD in Italy. Italy is discussing the implementation of a national program for the health technology assessment of medical devices, requiring more studies to prove value for money of emerging technologies.

Endoscopic Screening Program for Control of Esophageal Adenocarcinoma in Varied Populations: A Comparative Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Guidelines suggest endoscopic screening for esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) among individuals with symptoms of gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) and additional risk factors. We aimed to determine at what age to perform screening and whether sex and race should influence the decision.

METHODS

We conducted comparative cost-effectiveness analyses using 3 independent simulation models. For each combination of sex and race (White/Black, 100,000 individuals each), we considered 41 screening strategies, including one-time or repeated screening. The optimal strategy was that with the highest effectiveness and an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio <$100,000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained.

RESULTS

Among White men, 536 EAC deaths were projected without screening, and screening individuals with GERD twice at ages 45 and 60 years was optimal. Screening the entire White male population once at age 55 years was optimal in 26% of probabilistic sensitivity analysis runs. Black men had fewer EAC deaths without screening (n = 84), and screening those with GERD once at age 55 years was optimal. Although White women had slightly more EAC deaths (n = 103) than Black men, the optimal strategy was no screening, although screening those with GERD once at age 55 years was optimal in 29% of probabilistic sensitivity analysis runs. Black women had a very low burden of EAC deaths (n = 29), and no screening was optimal, as benefits were very small and some strategies caused net harm.

CONCLUSIONS

The optimal strategy for screening differs by race and sex. White men with GERD symptoms can potentially be screened more intensely than is recommended currently. Screening women is not cost-effective and may cause net harm for Black women.

External validation of a model determining risk of neoplastic progression of Barrett's esophagus in a cohort of U.S. veterans

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) in those with Barrett's esophagus (BE) is 11-fold greater than the general population. It remains unclear which BE patients are at highest risk of progression to EAC. We aimed to validate a predictive model risk-stratifying BE patients.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study at the Houston Veteran Affairs Medical Center of consecutive patients with a new diagnosis of BE from November 1990 to January 2019. Study follow-up was through February 2020. Patients were excluded if they had no follow-up EGD with esophageal biopsy sampling after the initial BE-diagnosing EGD or evidence of high-grade dysplasia (HGD) or EAC on initial EGD. We performed an external validation study of a risk model containing sex, smoking, BE length, and low-grade dysplasia (LGD) status and assessed discriminatory ability using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC).

RESULTS

Among 608 BE patients, 24 progressed to HGD/EAC. The points-based model discriminated well with an AUROC of .72 (95% confidence interval [CI], .63-.82). When categorized into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups according to published cutoffs, the AUROC was poor at .57. Restructured into low-risk versus high-risk groups, the AUROC was .72 (95% CI, .64-.80). Excluding baseline LGD did not reduce discriminatory ability (AUROC, .73; 95% CI, .64-.82).

CONCLUSIONS

This external validation provides further evidence that the model including sex, LGD status, smoking status, and BE length may help to risk stratify BE patients. A simplified version excluding LGD status and/or reducing the number of risk groups has increased utility in clinical practice without loss of discriminatory ability.

Esophageal cancer: Epidemiology, risk factors and screening

More than 600,000 people are diagnosed with esophageal cancer (EC) every year globally, and the five-year survival rate of EC is less than 20%. Two common histological subtypes of EC, esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) and esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC), have great geographical variations in incidence rates. About half of the world's EC was diagnosed in China and a majority of which belong to ESCC. Globally, the overall incidence rate of EC is decreasing. In some high-risk Asian regions, such as China, the incidence rate of ESCC has generally declined, potentially due to economic growth and improvement of diet habits. In some European high-income countries and the United States, the decline is mainly attributed to the decrease in smoking and drinking. The risk factors of EC are not well understood, and the importance of environmental and genetic factors in the pathogenesis is also unclear. The incidence and mortality of advanced EC can be reduced through early diagnosis and screening. White light endoscopy is still the gold standard in the current screening technology. This article reviews the epidemiology, risk factors, and screening strategies of EC in recent years to help researchers determine the most effective management strategies to reduce the risk of EC.

Improving cost-effectiveness of endoscopic surveillance for Barrett's esophagus by reducing low-value care: a review of economic evaluations

BACKGROUND

Individuals with Barrett's esophagus are believed to be at 30-120× risk of developing esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). Early detection and endoscopic treatment of dysplasia/early cancer confers a significant advantage to patients under surveillance; however, most do not progress past the non-dysplastic state of Barrett's esophagus (NDBE), which is potentially an inefficient distribution of health care resources.

OBJECTIVES

This article aimed to review the outcomes of cost-effectiveness studies reducing low-value care in the context of endoscopic surveillance for non-dysplastic Barrett's esophagus (NDBE).

METHODS

A systematic search was conducted by two reviewers in accordance with PRISMA guidelines.

INCLUSION CRITERIA

cost-utility analyses of endoscopic surveillance of NDBE patients with at least one treatment strategy focused on reduction of surveillance. A narrative synthesis of economic evaluations was undertaken, along with an in-depth analysis of input parameters contributing to stated Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER). Study appraisal was performed using the consolidated health economic evaluation reporting standards (CHEERS) tool.

RESULTS

10 Studies met inclusion criteria. There was significant variation in cost-model structures, input parameters, ICER values, and willingness-to-pay thresholds between studies. All studies except one concluded guideline-specified endoscopic surveillance for NDBE patients was not cost-effective. Studies that explored a modified surveillance by deselection of low-risk NDBE patients found it to be a cost-effective strategy.

CONCLUSION

Guideline specified endoscopic surveillance for NDBE was not found to be cost-effective in the studies examined. A modified endoscopic surveillance strategy removing individuals with the lowest risk for progression from NDBE to adenocarcinoma is likely to be cost-effective but is dependent on risk profile of patients excluded from surveillance.

Independent Validation of a Tissue Systems Pathology Assay to Predict Future Progression in Nondysplastic Barrett's Esophagus: A Spatial-Temporal Analysis

An automated risk prediction assay has previously been shown to objectively identify patients with nondysplastic Barrett's esophagus (NDBE) who are at increased risk of malignant progression. To evaluate the predictive performance of the assay in 76 patients with NDBE of which 38 progressed to high-grade dysplasia/esophageal adenocarcinoma (progressors) and 38 did not (nonprogressors) and to determine whether assessment of additional (spatial) levels per endoscopy and/or multiple (temporal) time points improves assay performance.

Cost-Effectiveness of Screening, Surveillance, and Endoscopic Eradication Therapies for Managing the Burden of Esophageal Adenocarcinoma

The authors conducted a review of the literature of cost-effectiveness analyses regarding management of Barrett's esophagus, including screening, surveillance, and treatment strategies. Because of the presence of multiple systematic reviews on this topic, they chose to focus on more recent economic analyses, with an emphasis on comparative modeling because these analyses have been demonstrated to achieve greater validity and impact when there are multiple competing strategies that are clinically reasonable to pursue. The authors identified areas of consensus across studies regarding management strategies and also areas that require additional empirical data.

Towards screening Barrett's oesophagus: current guidelines, imaging modalities and future developments

Barrett's oesophagus is the only known precursor to oesophageal adenocarcinoma (OAC). Although guidelines on the screening and surveillance exist in Barrett's oesophagus, the current strategies are inadequate. Oesophagogastroduodenoscopy (OGD) is the gold standard method in screening for Barrett's oesophagus. This invasive method is expensive with associated risks negating its use as a current screening tool for Barrett's oesophagus. This review explores current definitions, epidemiology, biomarkers, surveillance, and screening in Barrett's oesophagus. Imaging modalities applicable to this condition are discussed, in addition to future developments. There is an urgent need for an alternative non-invasive method of screening and/or surveillance which could be highly beneficial towards reducing waiting times, alleviating patient fears and reducing future costs in current healthcare services. Vibrational spectroscopy has been shown to be promising in categorising Barrett's oesophagus through to high-grade dysplasia (HGD) and OAC. These techniques need further validation through multicentre trials.

Recent advances in understanding and preventing oesophageal cancer

Oesophageal cancer is a common cancer that continues to have a poor survival. This is largely in part due to its late diagnosis and early metastatic spread. Currently, screening is limited to patients with multiple risk factors via a relatively invasive technique. However, there is a large proportion of patients diagnosed with oesophageal cancer who have not been screened. This has warranted the development of new screening techniques that could be implemented more widely and lead to earlier identification and subsequently improvements in survival rates. This article also explores progress in the surveillance of Barrett’s oesophagus, a pre-malignant condition for the development of oesophageal adenocarcinoma. In recent years, advances in early endoscopic intervention have meant that more patients are considered at an earlier stage for potentially curative treatment.

A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Of An Adenocarcinoma Risk Prediction Multi-Biomarker Assay For Patients With Barrett's Esophagus

Purpose

This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of a quantitative multi-biomarker assay (the Assay) that stratifies patients with Barrett’s Esophagus (BE) by risk of progression to high-grade dysplasia (HGD) or esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) and can be used to guide clinical decisions, versus the current guidelines (standard of care [SOC]) for surveillance and treatment of BE.

Patients and methods

Markov decision modeling and simulation were used to compare cost and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) from the perspective of a US health insurer with care delivered by an integrated health system. Model assumptions and disease progression probabilities were derived from the literature. Performance metrics for the Assay were from an independent clinical validation study. Cost of the Assay was based on reimbursement rates from multiple payers. Other costs were derived from Geisinger payment data.

Results

Base-case model results for a 5-year period comparing the Assay-directed care to the SOC estimated an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $52,483/QALY in 2012 US dollars. Assay-directed care increased the use of endoscopic treatments by 58.4%, which reduced the progression to HGD, EAC and reduced EAC-related deaths by 51.7%, 47.1%, and 37.6%, respectively, over the 5-year period. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the probability of the Assay being cost-effective compared to the SOC was 57.3% at the $100,000/QALY acceptability threshold.

Conclusion

Given the model assumptions, the new Assay would be cost-effective after 5 years and improves patient outcomes due to improvement in the effectiveness of surveillance and treatment protocols resulting in fewer patients progressing to HGD and EAC and fewer EAC-related deaths.

Barrett's esophagus: novel strategies for screening and surveillance

Barrett’s esophagus is the precursor lesion for esophageal adenocarcinoma. Screening and surveillance of Barrett’s esophagus are undertaken with the goal of earlier detection and lowering the mortality from esophageal adenocarcinoma. The widely used technique is standard esophagogastroduodenoscopy with biopsies per the Seattle protocol for screening and surveillance of Barrett’s esophagus. Surveillance intervals vary depending on the degree of dysplasia with endoscopic eradication therapy confined to patients with Barrett’s esophagus and confirmed dysplasia. In this review, we present various novel techniques for screening of Barrett’s esophagus such as unsedated transnasal endoscopy, cytosponge with trefoil factor-3, balloon cytology, esophageal capsule endoscopy, liquid biopsy, electronic nose, and oral microbiome. In addition, advanced imaging techniques such as narrow band imaging, dye-based chromoendoscopy, confocal laser endomicroscopy, volumetric laser endomicroscopy, and wide-area transepithelial sampling with computer-assisted three-dimensional analysis developed for better detection of dysplasia are also reviewed.

Missed Opportunities for Screening and Surveillance of Barrett's Esophagus in Veterans with Esophageal Adenocarcinoma

BACKGROUND

Barrett's esophagus (BE) is the premalignant lesion of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) and is the target of early detection and prevention efforts for EAC.

AIMS

We sought to evaluate what proportion and temporal trends of EAC patients had missed opportunities for screening and surveillance of BE.

METHODS

Our study included 182 patients with EAC at the Michael E. DeBakey VA Medical Center in Houston, Texas, between 02/2005 and 09/2017. We conducted a retrospective audit of patients' medical records for any previous upper endoscopies (EGDs) for screening or surveillance of BE prior to their EAC diagnosis.

RESULTS

The mean age of the cohort was 67.3 years (SD = 9.5); 99.5% of patients were male, and 85.2% were white. Only 45 patients (24.7%) had EGD at any time prior to the cancer diagnosing EGD, of whom 29 (15.9% of all EAC cases) had an established BE diagnosis. In the 137 patients with no prior EGD, most (63.5%) had GERD or were obese or ever smokers. There were no changes in patterns over time. For the 29 patients with prior established BE, 22 (75.8%) were diagnosed with EAC as a result of surveillance EGD. Patients with prior established BE were more likely to be diagnosed at 0 or I stage (p < 0.001) and managed with endoscopic or surgical modalities (p < 0.001) than patients without prior BE.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite having established risk factors for BE, the majority of EAC patients had no prior EGD to screen for BE. BE screening may represent the largest missed opportunity to reduce EAC mortality.

Screening and Surveillance for Barrett's Esophagus: Is It Cost-Effective?

The cost-effectiveness of screening and surveillance for Barrett's esophagus continues to evolve as the incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma increases, biomarkers enhance the identification of individuals at highest risk for developing cancer, and endoscopic eradication of Barrett's esophagus improves. Screening to detect Barrett's esophagus may be cost-effective in selected high-risk groups based on age, race, sex and other factors such as symptoms of heartburn. Currently, endoscopic eradication therapy for Barrett's esophagus and high-grade dysplasia is a cost-effective intervention, while endoscopic therapy for non-dysplastic Barrett's esophagus is not a cost-effective strategy. As diagnosis of low-grade dysplasia improves, endoscopic eradication therapy may also prove to be a cost-effective intervention.