Neighbourhoods and oral health: Agent-based modelling of tooth decay

Non-typhoidal Salmonella in Nigeria: do outcomes of 'multisectoral' surveillance, treatment and control justify the intervention costs?

Non-typhoidal salmonellosis (NTS) is significant and an economic burden in Nigeria. To determine whether investment in NTS control is economically justifiable, Outbreak Costing Tool (OCT) was used to estimate the robust funding of public and animal health systems for epidemio-surveillance and control of multisectoral NTS outbreaks in Nigeria. Health, production, and economic data were collected and used to populate the tool for evaluation. The multisectoral NTS burden for the year 2020 in Nigeria was US$ 930,887,379.00. Approximately 4,835 technical officers, and 3,700 non-technical staff (n = 8,535) were needed with an investment of >2.2 million work hours. The investment cost for NTS control was US$ 53,854,660.87. The non-labour-related cost was 89.21% of the total intervention costs. The overall intervention's investment was 374.15% of the estimated national and subnational systems' annual budget for diarrhoeal diseases, and the outbreak response period attracted the highest costs (53%) of the total intervention. In conclusion, intervention against NTS was beneficial (benefit - cost ratio: 17.29), hence justifying the need for multisectoral surveillance-response against NTS in Nigeria. Complex sectoral silos must give way to coordinated collaborations to optimize benefits; and over-centralization of health interventions' associated delays must be removed through decentralized sub-national-focused framework that empowers rapid investigation, response, control, data collection, and analyses. It should assist anticipatory planning, and outbreak investigation and reduce critical response time. Anticipatory planning tools, when applied pre-emptively, can benefit budgeting, identify gaps, and assist in the delivery of cost-saving and effective measures against infectious disease.

The current state of complex systems research on socioeconomic inequalities in health and health behavior-a systematic scoping review

BACKGROUND

Interest in applying a complex systems approach to understanding socioeconomic inequalities in health is growing, but an overview of existing research on this topic is lacking. In this systematic scoping review, we summarize the current state of the literature, identify shared drivers of multiple health and health behavior outcomes, and highlight areas ripe for future research.

METHODS

SCOPUS, Web of Science, and PubMed databases were searched in April 2023 for peer-reviewed, English-language studies in high-income OECD countries containing a conceptual systems model or simulation model of socioeconomic inequalities in health or health behavior in the adult general population. Two independent reviewers screened abstracts and full texts. Data on study aim, type of model, all model elements, and all relationships were extracted. Model elements were categorized based on the Commission on Social Determinants of Health framework, and relationships between grouped elements were visualized in a summary conceptual systems map.

RESULTS

A total of 42 publications were included; 18 only contained a simulation model, 20 only contained a conceptual model, and 4 contained both types of models. General health outcomes (e.g., health status, well-being) were modeled more often than specific outcomes like obesity. Dietary behavior and physical activity were by far the most commonly modeled health behaviors. Intermediary determinants of health (e.g., material circumstances, social cohesion) were included in nearly all models, whereas structural determinants (e.g., policies, societal values) were included in about a third of models. Using the summary conceptual systems map, we identified 15 shared drivers of socioeconomic inequalities in multiple health and health behavior outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

The interconnectedness of socioeconomic position, multiple health and health behavior outcomes, and determinants of socioeconomic inequalities in health is clear from this review. Factors central to the complex system as it is currently understood in the literature (e.g., financial strain) may be both efficient and effective policy levers, and factors less well represented in the literature (e.g., sleep, structural determinants) may warrant more research. Our systematic, comprehensive synthesis of the literature may serve as a basis for, among other things, a complex systems framework for socioeconomic inequalities in health.

Methods to madness: The utility of complex systems science in a mad, mad world

Existing methods in social [oral] epidemiology primarily utilize statistical models that assume static characteristics of individuals and environments. While useful, an over reliance on these methods in the social and behavioural sciences can unnecessarily limit perspective and progress as even the most advanced statistical methods cannot capture complex behaviour over time given that systems evolve, environments respond, and behaviours and beliefs crystalize or deteriorate based on a variety of social, environmental and access variables. The recent consensus statement on Future Directions for the Behavioral and Social Sciences in Oral Health acknowledges that dental, oral and craniofacial health emerge from the complex interplay of multiple factors at multiple levels over time and highlights the need for the incorporation of new and underutilized methodologies. Complex Systems Science offers a suite of tools and methodologies that are responsive to the generative mechanisms and processes that underlie population distributions of oral health and disease. Specifically, they assume intricate, dynamic interactions between individuals and groups, they facilitate the study and synthesis of interconnections between people (e.g. patients, healthcare providers and policy makers), how these change over time, any differences across settings, and provide an opportunity to guide future longitudinal data collection and intervention science more effectively. This paper aims to provide an introduction to foundational principles of complex systems, complex systems thinking, and methods found in complex systems science, including social network analysis, system dynamics models and agent-based models, and offers perspectives on the challenges faced and opportunities afforded in the incorporation of these methods into the population oral health sciences.