Selecting patients for heart transplantation: Comparison of the Heart Failure Survival Score (HFSS) and the Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM)

Development a nomogram prognostic model for survival in heart failure patients based on the HF-ACTION data

BACKGROUND

The risk assessment for survival in heart failure (HF) remains one of the key focuses of research. This study aims to develop a simple and feasible nomogram model for survival in HF based on the Heart Failure-A Controlled Trial Investigating Outcomes of Exercise TraiNing (HF-ACTION) to support clinical decision-making.

METHODS

The HF patients were extracted from the HF-ACTION database and randomly divided into a training cohort and a validation cohort at a ratio of 7:3. Multivariate Cox regression was used to identify and integrate significant prognostic factors to form a nomogram, which was displayed in the form of a static nomogram. Bootstrap resampling (resampling = 1000) and cross-validation was used to internally validate the model. The prognostic performance of the model was measured by the concordance index (C-index), calibration curve, and the decision curve analysis.

RESULTS

There were 1394 patients with HF in the overall analysis. Seven prognostic factors, which included age, body mass index (BMI), sex, diastolic blood pressure (DBP), exercise duration, peak exercise oxygen consumption (peak VO2), and loop diuretic, were identified and applied to the nomogram construction based on the training cohort. The C-index of this model in the training cohort was 0.715 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.700, 0.766) and 0.662 (95% CI: 0.646, 0.752) in the validation cohort. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) value of 365- and 730-day survival is (0.731, 0.734) and (0.640, 0.693) respectively in the training cohort and validation cohort. The calibration curve showed good consistency between nomogram-predicted survival and actual observed survival. The decision curve analysis (DCA) revealed net benefit is higher than the reference line in a narrow range of cutoff probabilities and the result of cross-validation indicates that the model performance is relatively robust.

CONCLUSIONS

This study created a nomogram prognostic model for survival in HF based on a large American population, which can provide additional decision information for the risk prediction of HF.

Rationale and Design of a Multicenter Trial on Exploratory Analysis of the Effects of Advance Care Planning Guided by the Prediction Program of Heart Failure Prognosis on Quality of Life in Patients With Heart Failure - ACQUAINT-Trial

Background: Preplanning of care is necessary for patients with endstage heart failure (HF), but advance care planning (ACP) before the loss of a patient's comprehensive capacity is not yet routine for the public or the medical community. The challenge in accurately predicting a patient's prognosis is a strong barrier to implementing ACP. To address this problem, several models for risk stratification have been proposed and are available in clinical settings. Methods and Results: We randomized the procedure to provide estimated patient survival information to attending physicians and then assessed whether there was a change in (1) the frequency of ACP initiation occurred (physician-side evaluation), and/or (2) the patients' quality of life, including mental state (patient-side evaluation). Conclusions: This multicenter, open-label, single-blinded randomized clinical trial aims to assess the hypothesis that providing information on the estimated survival of a patient to the attending physicians will improve the frequency of ACP initiation and quality of life in patients with HF.

Tricuspid Annular Plane Systolic Excursion-to-Systolic Pulmonary Artery Pressure Ratio as a Prognostic Factor in Heart Transplant Patients

Background and Objectives: Heart transplant is currently the final step in treating patients with heart failure. The success of this procedure is strongly connected to potential complications such as postoperative heart failure, infections, graft rejection, graft vasculopathy, and kidney failure. Thus, identifying potential prognostic factors for patients' outcome is of utmost importance. We investigated the prognostic role of the postoperative ratio between the tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion (TAPSE) and systolic pulmonary artery pressure (sPAP) in patients who underwent heart transplantation in our center. Materials and Methods: The study included 46 adult patients from the Emergency Institute for Cardiovascular Diseases and Transplant of Târgu Mureș, who underwent heart transplant between January 2011 and April 2023. By the use of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, we determined an optimal cut-off value for TAPSE/sPAP with regard to survival at 6 months. Differences in central tendencies of baseline characteristics in those who had a value lower than the cut-off value of TAPSE/sPAP and those who presented a value above it were investigated using the corresponding parametric or nonparametric tests. Results: A value for TAPSE/sPAP above 0.47 mm/mmHg was associated with 6-month survival (OR: 59.5, CI: 5.7-616.0). No significant differences in central tendencies for baseline characteristics were found between the patients who had a TAPSE/sPAP ratio below the cut-off and those who had a ratio above it. Conclusions: The TAPSE/sPAP ratio might prove to be valuable in the early identification of at-risk heart transplant patients. Further prospective studies with larger cohorts are required for validation.

Cardiopulmonary Exercise Testing in the Age of New Heart Failure Therapies: Still a Powerful Tool?

BACKGROUND

New therapies with prognostic benefits have been recently introduced in heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) management. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic power of current listing criteria for heart transplantation (HT) in an HFrEF cohort submitted to cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) between 2009 and 2014 (group A) and between 2015 and 2018 (group B).

METHODS

Consecutive patients with HFrEF who underwent CPET were followed-up for cardiac death and urgent HT.

RESULTS

CPET was performed in 487 patients. The composite endpoint occurred in 19.4% of group A vs. 7.4% of group B in a 36-month follow-up. Peak VO2 (pVO2) and VE/VCO2 slope were the strongest independent predictors of mortality. International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation (ISHLT) thresholds of pVO2 ≤ 12 mL/kg/min (≤14 if intolerant to β-blockers) and VE/VCO2 slope > 35 presented a similar and lower Youden index, respectively, in group B compared to group A, and a lower positive predictive value. pVO2 ≤ 10 mL/kg/min and VE/VCO2 slope > 40 outperformed the traditional cut-offs. An ischemic etiology subanalysis showed similar results.

CONCLUSION

ISHLT thresholds showed a lower overall prognostic effectiveness in a contemporary HFrEF population. Novel parameters may be needed to improve risk stratification.

Predicting major events in ambulatory patients with advanced heart failure awaiting heart transplantation: a pilot study

AIMS

In heart failure (HF), prognostic risk scores focus on all-cause mortality prediction. However, in advanced HF (AdHF) ambulatory patients awaiting heart transplantation (HTx), hospitalizations for acutely decompensated/worsening HF are relevant to clinical decision-making, but unpredicted by common risk functions.

METHODS

Among consecutive ambulatory patients added to the waitlist for HTx, event discriminators within 2 years from recruitment were assessed prospectively by area under the curve from receiver-operating characteristic curves, and by Cox proportional hazards models. Primary composite end points included the first between all-cause mortality and acutely decompensated/worsening HF requiring hospitalization and specific treatments.

RESULTS

In 89 patients, 36 primary composite events were recorded in a 2-year follow-up (40% of the study sample), and associated with nonischemic etiology and nonsinus rhythm, with lower systolic blood pressure (BP), lower plasma sodium and hemoglobin concentrations, and with higher N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), larger left ventricular (LV) dimensions and lower LV ejection fraction, greater proportion of significant mitral regurgitation, lower tricuspid annulus peak systolic excursion (TAPSE), lower percentage of predicted distance at 6-minute walking test (%p6MWT) and lower global symptoms burden by the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire, lower peak oxygen uptake by cardiopulmonary exercise, and higher wedge pressure by right heart catheterization, as compared with those with no events (P < 0.05). Only Metabolic Exercise Cardiac Kidney Index (MECKI) at recruitment was higher with patients reporting events, which predicted composite end points in addition to and independently of NT-proBNP, and lower systolic BP (all P < 0.05). In an alternative risk model, severe mitral regurgitation and lower TAPSE replaced MECKI and BP but not NT-proBNP (all P < 0.01).

CONCLUSION

Higher NT-pro-BNP, lower systolic BP and higher MECKI may contribute to predicting all-cause death and acutely decompensated/worsening HF among ambulatory patients awaiting HTx, with lower TAPSE and severe mitral regurgitation representing further alternative independent prognosticators.

Marginal versus Standard Donors in Heart Transplantation: Proper Selection Means Heart Transplant Benefit

BACKGROUND

In this study, we assessed the mid-term outcomes of patients who received a heart donation from a marginal donor (MD), and compared them with those who received an organ from a standard donor (SD).

METHODS

All patients who underwent HTx between January 2012 and December 2020 were enrolled at a single institution. The primary endpoints were early and long-term survival of MD recipients. Risk factors for primary graft failure (PGF) and mortality in MD recipients were also analyzed. The secondary endpoint was the comparison of survival of MD versus SD recipients.

RESULTS

In total, 238 patients underwent HTx, 64 (26.9%) of whom received an organ from an MD. Hospital mortality in the MD recipient cohort was 23%, with an estimated 1 and 5-year survival of 70% (59.2-82.7) and 68.1% (57.1-81), respectively. A multivariate analysis in MD recipients showed that decreased renal function and increased inotropic support of recipients were associated with higher mortality (p = 0.04 and p = 0.03). Cold ischemic time (p = 0.03) and increased donor inotropic support (p = 0.04) were independent risk factors for PGF. Overall survival was higher in SD than MD (85% vs. 68% at 5 years, log-rank = 0.008). However, risk-adjusted mortality (p = 0.2) and 5-year conditional survival (log-rank = 0.6) were comparable.

CONCLUSIONS

Selected MDs are a valuable resource for expanding the cardiac donor pool, showing promising results. The use of MDs after prolonged ischemic times, increased inotropic support of the MD or the recipient and decreased renal function are associated with worse outcomes.

The Utility of Pentraxin and Modified Prognostic Scales in Predicting Outcomes of Patients with End-Stage Heart Failure

Risk stratification is an important element of management in patients with heart failure (HF). We aimed to determine factors associated with predicting outcomes in end-stage HF patients listed for heart transplantation (HT), with particular emphasis placed on pentraxin-3 (PXT-3). In addition, we investigated whether the combination of PTX-3 with the Heart Failure Survival Score (HFSS), the Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM), or the Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure (MAGGIC) improved the prognostic strength of these scales in the study population. We conducted a prospective analysis of 343 outpatients with end-stage HF who accepted the HT waiting list between 2015 and 2018. HFSS, SHFM, and MAGGIC scores were calculated for all patients. PTX3 was measured by sandwich enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay with a commercially available kit. The endpoints were death, left ventricular assist device implantation, and HT during the one-year follow-up. The median age was 56 (50−60) years, and 86.6% were male. During the follow-up period, 173 patients reached the endpoint. Independent risk factors associated with outcomes were ischemic etiology of HF [HR 1.731 (1.227−2.441), p = 0.0018], mean arterial pressure (MAP) [1.026 (1.010−1.042), p = 0.0011], body mass index (BMI) [1.055 (1.014−1.098), p = 0.0083], sodium [1.056 [(1.007−1.109), p = 0.0244] PTX-3 [1.187 (1.126−1.251, p < 0.0001) and N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) [HR 1.004 (1.000−1.008), p = 0.0259]. The HFSS-PTX-3, SHFM-PTX-3 and MAGGIC-PTX-3 scores had significantly higher predictive power [AUC = 0.951, AUC = 0.973; AUC = 0.956, respectively] than original scores [AUC for HFSS = 0.8481, AUC for SHFM = 0.7976, AUC for MAGGIC = 0.7491]. Higher PTX-3 and NT-proBNP concentrations, lower sodium concentrations, lower MAP and BMI levels, and ischemic etiology of HF are associated with worse outcomes in patients with end-stage HF. The modified SHFM-PTX-3, HFSS-PTX-3, and MAGGIC-PTX-3 scores provide effective methods of assessing the outcomes in the analyzed group.

Listing criteria for heart transplantation in the Netherlands

The updated listing criteria for heart transplantation are presented on behalf of the three heart transplant centres in the Netherlands. Given the shortage of donor hearts, selection of those patients who may expect to have the greatest benefit from a scarce societal resource in terms of life expectancy and quality of life is inevitable. The indication for heart transplantation includes end-stage heart disease not remediable by more conservative measures, accompanied by severe physical limitation while on optimal medical therapy, including ICD/CRT‑D. Assessment of this condition requires cardiopulmonary stress testing, prognostic stratification and invasive haemodynamic measurements. Timely referral to a tertiary centre is essential for an optimal outcome. Chronic mechanical circulatory support is being used more and more as an alternative to heart transplantation and to bridge the progressively longer waiting time for heart transplantation and, thus, has become an important treatment option for patients with advanced heart failure.

Listing Criteria for Heart Transplant: Role of Cardiopulmonary Exercise Test and of Prognostic Scores

Patients with advanced heart failure (AdHF) have a reduced quality of life and poor prognosis. A heart transplant (HT) is an effective treatment for such patients. Still, because of a shortage of donor organs, the final decision to place a patient without contraindications on the HT waiting list is based on detailed risk-benefit analysis. Cardiopulmonary exercise tests (CPETs) play a pivotal role in guiding selection in patients with AdHF considered for an HT. Furthermore, several validated multivariable predicting scores obtained through various techniques, including the CPETs, are available and part of the decision-making process for HT listing.

Differences in the prognoses of patients referred to an advanced heart failure center from hospitals with different bed volumes

Few reports have discussed appropriate strategies for patient referrals to advanced heart failure (HF) centers with available left ventricular assist devices (LVADs). We examined the association between the characteristics and prognoses of referred patients with advanced HF and the bed volume of the referring hospitals. This retrospective analysis evaluated 186 patients with advanced HF referred to our center for consultation about the indication of LVAD between January 1, 2015, and August 31, 2018. We divided the patients into two groups according to the bed volume of their referring hospital (high bed volume hospitals (HBHs): ≥ 500 beds in the hospital; low bed volume hospitals (LBHs): < 500 beds). We compared the primary outcome measure, a composite of LVAD implantation and all-cause death, between the patients referred from HBHs and patients referred from LBHs. The 186 patients with advanced HF referred to our hospital, who were referred from 130 hospitals (87 from LBHs and 99 from HBHs), had a mean age of 43.0 ± 12.6 years and a median left ventricular ejection fraction of 22% [15–33%]. The median follow-up duration of the patients was 583 days (119–965 days), and the primary outcome occurred during follow-up in 42 patients (43%) in the HBH group and 20 patients (23%) in the LBH group. Patients referred from HBHs tended to require catecholamine infusion on transfer more often than those referred from LBLs (36.5% (HBH), 20.2% (LBL), P = 0.021). Kaplan–Meier analysis indicates that the occurrence of the primary outcome was significantly higher in the HBH patients than in the LBH patients (log-rank P = 0.0022). Multivariate Cox proportional hazards analysis revealed that catecholamine support on transfer and long disease duration were statistically significant predictors of the primary outcome. Patients from HBHs had a greater risk of the primary outcome. However, the multivariate analysis did not indicate an association between referral from an HBH and the primary outcome. In contrast, catecholamine support on transfer, long duration of disease, and low blood pressure were independent predictors of the primary outcome. Therefore, these should be considered when determining the timing of a referral to an advanced HF center, irrespective of the bed volume of the referring hospital.

Short-term mortality in end-stage heart failure patients

Objectives

This study is aimed at analyzing the impact of the main factors contributing to short and long-term mortality in patients at final stages of heart failure (HF).

Setting

Patients attended at any of the 279 primary health care centers belonging to the Institut Català de la Salut, in Catalonia (Spain).

Participants

Patients with Advanced HF.

Design

Multicenter cohort study including 1148 HF patients followed for one-year after reaching New York Heart Association (NYHA) IV.

Main measurements

The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. Multivariate logistic regression models were performed to assess the outcomes at 1, 3, 6, and 12 months.

Results

Mean age of patients was 82 (SD 9) years and women represented 61.7%. A total of 135 (11.8%) and 397 (34.6%) patients died three months and one year after inclusion, respectively. Male gender, age, and decreased body mass index were associated with higher mortality at three, six and twelve months. In addition, low systolic blood pressure levels, severe reduction in glomerular filtration, malignancy, and higher doses of loop diuretics were related to higher mortality from 6 to 12 months.

The most important risk factor over the whole period was presenting a body mass index lower than 20 kg/m² (three months OR 3.06, 95% CI: 1.58–5.92; six months OR 4.42, 95% CI: 2.08–9.38; and 12 months OR 3.68, 95% CI: 1.76–7.69).

Conclusions

We may conclude that male, age, and decreased body mass index determined higher short-term mortality in NYHA IV. In addition, low systolic blood pressure, reduced glomerular filtration, malignancy, and higher doses of loop diuretics contribute to increasing the risk of mortality at medium and long-term. Such variables are easily measurable and can help to decide the best way to face the most advances stages of the disease.

Peripartum Cardiomyopathy: Current Options for Treatment and Cardiovascular Support

Peripartum cardiomyopathy is a rare form of acute heart failure but the major cause of all deaths in pregnant patients with heart failure. Improved survival rates in recent years, however, emphasize the importance of early recognition and initiation of heart failure treatment. This article, therefore, attempts to raise awareness among cardiac and obstetric anesthesiologists as well as intensivists of this often fatal diagnosis. This review summarizes theories of the pathophysiology and outcome of peripartum cardiomyopathy. Based on the most recent literature, it further outlines diagnostic criteria and treatment options including medical management, mechanical circulatory support devices, and heart transplantation. Earlier recognition of this rare condition and a new generation of mechanical circulatory devices has contributed to the improved outcome. More frequently, patients in cardiogenic shock who fail medical management are successfully bridged to recovery on extracorporeal circulatory devices or survive with a long-lasting implantable ventricular assist device. The outcome of transplanted patients with peripartum cardiomyopathy, however, is worse compared to other recipients of heart transplants and warrants further investigation in the future.

Focusing on Referral Rather than Selection for Advanced Heart Failure Therapies

Despite advances in heart failure treatment, advanced heart failure affects 5–10% of people with the condition and is associated with poor prognosis. Selection for heart transplantation and left ventricular assist device implantation is a rigorous and validated process performed by specialised heart failure teams. This entails comprehensive assessment of complex diagnostic tests and risk scores, and selecting patients with the optimal benefit-risk profile. In contrast, referral for advanced heart failure evaluation is an arbitrary and poorly studied process, performed by generalists, and patients are often referred too late or not at all. The study elaborates on the differences between selection and referral and proposes some simple strategies for optimising timely referral for advanced heart failure evaluation.

An Appraisal of Biomarker-Based Risk-Scoring Models in Chronic Heart Failure: Which One Is Best?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

While prediction models incorporating biomarkers are used in heart failure, these have shown wide-ranging discrimination and calibration. This review will discuss externally validated biomarker-based risk models in chronic heart failure patients assessing their quality and relevance to clinical practice.

RECENT FINDINGS

Biomarkers may help in determining prognosis in chronic heart failure patients as they reflect early pathologic processes, even before symptoms or worsening disease. We present the characteristics and describe the performance of 10 externally validated prediction models including at least one biomarker among their predictive factors. Very few models report adequate discrimination and calibration. Some studies evaluated the additional predictive value of adding a biomarker to a model. However, these have not been routinely assessed in subsequent validation studies. New and existing prediction models should include biomarkers, which improve model performance. Ongoing research is needed to assess the performance of models in contemporary patients.

Prognostic scales in advanced heart failure

Heart transplantation (HT) is the treatment of choice for patients with advanced heart failure (HF) who remain symptomatic despite optimal medical therapy. Due to the shortage of organs for transplantation and constantly increasing number of patients placed on waiting lists, accurate risk stratification is a crucial element of management in this population. Prognostic scales allow one to evaluate the patient prognosis, estimate the potential benefits of therapy and identify those patients most likely to benefit from advanced methods of treatment. In this review, we describe prognostic scales in advanced HF, concentrating on commonly used tools – the Heart Failure Survival Score (HFSS) and Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM) – as well as on the new promising scales for evaluating waiting list mortality and post-transplant outcomes.

Association between quality of life and prognosis of candidate patients for heart transplantation: a cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVE

to verify the association between the prognostic scores and the quality of life of candidates for heart transplantation.

METHOD

a descriptive cross-sectional study with a convenience sample of 32 outpatients applying to heart transplantation. The prognosis was rated by the Heart Failure Survival Score (HFSS) and the Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM); and the quality of life by the Minnesota Living With Heart Failure Questionnaire (MLHFQ) and the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (KCCQ). The Pearson correlation test was applied.

RESULTS

the correlations found between general quality of life scores and prognostic scores were (HFSS/MLHFQ r = 0.21), (SHFM/MLHFQ r = 0.09), (HFSS/KCCQ r = -0.02), (SHFM/KCCQ r = -0.20).

CONCLUSION

the weak correlation between the prognostic and quality of life scores suggests a lack of association between the measures, i.e., worse prognosis does not mean worse quality of life and the same statement is true in the opposite direction.

INTERMACS Profiles and Outcomes Among Non-Inotrope-Dependent Outpatients With Heart Failure and Reduced Ejection Fraction

OBJECTIVES

This study sought to evaluate INTERMACS (Interagency Registry for Mechanically Assisted Circulatory Support) profiles for prognostic use among ambulatory non-inotrope-dependent patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF).

BACKGROUND

Data for INTERMACS profiles and prognoses in ambulatory patients with HFrEF are limited.

METHODS

We evaluated 3-year outcomes in 969 non-inotrope-dependent outpatients with HFrEF (EF: ≤40%) not previously receiving advanced HF therapies. Patients meeting an INTERMACS profile at baseline were classified as profile 7 (n = 348 [34.7%]); 146 patients (14.5%) were classified profile 6; and 52 patients (5.2%) were classified profile 4 to 5. Remaining patients were classified "stable Stage C" (n = 423 [42.1%]).

RESULTS

Three-year mortality rate was 10.0% among stable Stage C patients compared with 21.8% among INTERMACS profile 7 (hazard ratio [HR] vs. Stage C: 2.45; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.64 to 3.66), 26.0% among profile 6 (HR: 3.93; 95% CI: 1.64 to 3.66), and 43.8% among profile 4 to 5 (HR: 6.35; 95% CI: 3.51 to 11.5) patients. Hospitalization rates for HF were 4-fold higher among INTERMACS profile 7 (38 per 100 patient-years; rate ratio [RR] vs. Stage C: 3.88; 95% CI: 2.70 to 5.35), 6-fold higher among profile 6 patients (54 per 100 patient-years; RR: 5.69; 95% CI: 3.72 to 8.71), and 10-fold higher among profile 4 to 5 patients (69 per 100 patient-years; RR: 9.96; 95% CI: 5.15 to 19.3) than stable Stage C patients (11 per 100 patient-years). All-cause hospitalization rates had similar trends. INTERMACS profiles offered better prognostic separation than NYHA functional classifications.

CONCLUSIONS

INTERMACS profiles strongly predict subsequent mortality and hospitalization burden in non-inotrope-dependent outpatients with HFrEF. These simple profiles could therefore facilitate and promote advanced HF awareness among clinicians and planning for advanced HF therapies.

A peripheral blood transcriptome biomarker test to diagnose functional recovery potential in advanced heart failure

Heart failure (HF) is a complex clinical syndrome that causes systemic hypoperfusion and failure to meet the body’s metabolic demands. In an attempt to compensate, chronic upregulation of the sympathetic nervous system and renin-angiotensin-aldosterone leads to further myocardial injury, HF progression and reduced O₂ delivery. This triggers progressive organ dysfunction, immune system activation and profound metabolic derangements, creating a milieu similar to other chronic systemic diseases and presenting as advanced HF with severely limited prognosis. We hypothesize that 1-year survival in advanced HF is linked to functional recovery potential (FRP), a novel clinical composite parameter that includes HF severity, secondary organ dysfunction, co-morbidities, frailty, disabilities as well as chronological age and that can be diagnosed by a molecular biomarker.

Performance of existing risk scores around heart transplantation: validation study in a 4-year cohort

Several risk scores exist to help identify best candidate recipients for heart transplantation (HTx). This study describes the performance of five heart failure risk scores and two post-HTx mortality risk scores in a French single-centre cohort. All patients listed for HTx through a 4-year period were included. Waiting-list risk scores [Heart Failure Survival Score (HFSS), Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM), Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure (MAGGIC), Organized Program to Initiate Lifesaving Treatment in Hospitalized Patients with Heart Failure (OPTIMIZE-HF) and Get With The Guidelines-Heart Failure (GWTG-HF)] and post-HTx scores Index for Mortality Prediction After Cardiac Transplantation (IMPACT and CARRS) were computed. Main outcomes were 1-year mortality on waiting list and after HTx. Performance was assessed using receiver operator characteristic (ROC), calibration and goodness-of-fit analyses. The cohort included 414 patients. Waiting-list mortality was 14.0%, and post-HTx mortality was 16.3% at 1-year follow-up. Heart failure risk scores had adequate discrimination regarding waiting-list mortality (ROC AUC for HFSS = 0.68, SHFM = 0.74, OPTIMIZE-HF = 0.72, MAGGIC = 0.70 and GWTG = 0.77; all P-values <0.05). On the contrary, post-HTx risk scores did not discriminate post-HTx mortality (AUC for IMPACT = 0.58, and CARRS = 0.48, both P-values >0.50). Subgroup analysis on patients undergoing HTx after ventricular assistance device (VAD) implantation (i.e. bridge-to-transplantation) (n = 36) showed an IMPACT AUC = 0.72 (P < 0.001). In this single-centre cohort, existing heart failure risk scores were adequate to predict waiting-list mortality. Post-HTx mortality risk scores were not, except in the VAD subgroup.

Evaluation of a Heart Transplant Candidate

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Heart transplantation is the best option for irreversible and critically advanced heart failure. However, limited donor pool, the risk of rejection, infection, and right ventricular dysfunction in short-term post-transplant period, as well as, the development of coronary allograft vasculopathy and malignancy in the long-term post-transplant period limits the utility of heart transplantation for all comers with advanced heart failure. Therefore, selection of appropriate candidates is very important for the best short and long-term prognosis. In this article, we discuss the principles of selection of candidates and compare to the recently updated International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation (ISHLT) listing criteria with the goal of updating current clinical practice.

RECENT FINDINGS

We found that while most of the recommendations in the new listing criteria are continuous with the previous criteria, updated recommendations are made on the risk stratification models in choosing transplantation candidates. Recommendation on hepatic dysfunction is not directly included in the updated ISHLT listing criteria; however, adoption of the Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) score and modified MELD scores in the evaluation of risk are suggested in recent studies. In conclusion, evaluation of patient selection for heart transplantation should be comprehensive and individualized with respect to indications and the risk of comorbidities of candidates. With the advancement of mechanical circulatory support (MCS), the selection of heart transplantation candidate is continuously evolving and widened. MCS as bridge to candidacy should be considered when the candidate has potentially reversible risk factors for transplantation.

Multiparametric prognostic scores in chronic heart failure with reduced ejection fraction: a long-term comparison

AIMS

Risk stratification in heart failure (HF) is crucial for clinical and therapeutic management. A multiparametric approach is the best method to stratify prognosis. In 2012, the Metabolic Exercise test data combined with Cardiac and Kidney Indexes (MECKI) score was proposed to assess the risk of cardiovascular mortality and urgent heart transplantation. The aim of the present study was to compare the prognostic accuracy of MECKI score to that of HF Survival Score (HFSS) and Seattle HF Model (SHFM) in a large, multicentre cohort of HF patients with reduced ejection fraction.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We collected data on 6112 HF patients and compared the prognostic accuracy of MECKI score, HFSS, and SHFM at 2- and 4-year follow-up for the combined endpoint of cardiovascular death, urgent cardiac transplantation, or ventricular assist device implantation. Patients were followed up for a median of 3.67 years, and 931 cardiovascular deaths, 160 urgent heart transplantations, and 12 ventricular assist device implantations were recorded. At 2-year follow-up, the prognostic accuracy of MECKI score was significantly superior [area under the curve (AUC) 0.781] to that of SHFM (AUC 0.739) and HFSS (AUC 0.723), and this relationship was also confirmed at 4 years (AUC 0.764, 0.725, and 0.720, respectively).

CONCLUSION

In this cohort, the prognostic accuracy of the MECKI score was superior to that of HFSS and SHFM at 2- and 4-year follow-up in HF patients in stable clinical condition. The MECKI score may be useful to improve resource allocation and patient outcome, but prospective evaluation is needed.

Anesthesia for Heart Transplantation

This article seeks to evaluate current practices in heart transplantation. The goals of this article were to review current practices for heart transplantation and its anesthesia management. The article reviews current demographics and discusses the current criteria for candidacy for heart transplantation. The process for donor and receipt selection is reviewed. This is followed by a review of mechanical circulatory support devices as they pertain to heart transplantation. The preanesthesia and intraoperative considerations are also discussed. Finally, management after transplantation is also reviewed.

Both initial red cell distribution width (RDW) and change in RDW during heart failure hospitalization are associated with length of hospital stay and 30-day outcomes

INTRODUCTION

We examined the predictive ability of red cell distribution width (RDW) and the change in RDW during hospitalization (ΔRDW) for length of stay (LOS) and 30-day outcomes after heart failure (HF) inpatient stay.

METHODS

Electronic query of Intermountain Healthcare medical records identified patients (N = 6414) with a primary diagnosis of HF who were discharged between 2004 and 2013, had RDW measured within 24 h after admission, and had RDW tested at least once more during the same hospitalization. ΔRDW was defined as the last RDW within 24 h prior to discharge minus the first RDW.

RESULTS

Median LOS by initial RDW quartiles was Q1: 3.0, Q2: 3.1, Q3: 3.7, and Q4: 4.0 days (P-trend<0.001), and by ΔRDW quartiles was Q1: 4.1, Q2: 3.4, Q3: 3.6, and Q4: 4.7 days (P-trend<0.001). Both initial RDW (16.8 ± 2.8% vs. 16.3 ± 2.7%, P < 0.001) and ΔRDW (0.21 ± 1.09% vs. 0.14 ± 1.04%, P = 0.039) predicted 30-day readmission vs. no readmit. For 30-day decedents vs. survivors, initial RDW was 17.3 ± 3.0% vs. 16.3 ± 2.6% (P < 0.001), while ΔRDW was +0.20 ± 1.14% vs. +0.14 ± 1.04% (P = 0.15).

CONCLUSIONS

Greater initial RDW and ΔRDW during HF hospitalization were associated with 30-day mortality, longer LOS, and 30-day all-cause readmission, suggesting both ΔRDW and initial RDW may aid in personalizing prognosis and treatment.

New Management Strategies in Heart Failure

Despite >100 clinical trials, only 2 new drugs had been approved by the US Food and Drug Administration for the treatment of chronic heart failure in more than a decade: the aldosterone antagonist eplerenone in 2003 and a fixed dose combination of hydralazine-isosorbide dinitrate in 2005. In contrast, 2015 has witnessed the Food and Drug Administration approval of 2 new drugs, both for the treatment of chronic heart failure with reduced ejection fraction: ivabradine and another combination drug, sacubitril/valsartan or LCZ696. Seemingly overnight, a range of therapeutic possibilities, evoking new physiological mechanisms, promise great hope for a disease that often carries a prognosis worse than many forms of cancer. Importantly, the newly available therapies represent a culmination of basic and translational research that actually spans many decades. This review will summarize newer drugs currently being used in the treatment of heart failure, as well as newer strategies increasingly explored for their utility during the stages of the heart failure syndrome.

Variability in Physical Activity Assessed with Accelerometer Is an Independent Predictor of Mortality in CHF Patients

Aims

Patients with heart failure often display a distinct pattern of walking characterized by short step-length and frequent short pauses. In the current study we sought to explore if qualitative aspects of movement have any additive value to established factors to predict all-cause mortality in patients with advanced heart failure.

Methods and results

60 patients with advanced heart failure (NYHA III, peak VO2 <20 ml/kg and LVEF <35%) underwent symptom-limited CPX, echocardiography and routine chemistry. Physical activity was assessed using an accelerometer worn attached to the waist during waking hours for 7 consecutive days. The heart-failure survival score (HFSS) was calculated for each patient. All accelerometer-derived variables were analyzed with regard to all-cause mortality and added to a baseline model utilizing HFSS scores. HFSS score was significantly associated with the incidence of death (P<0.001; c-index 0.71; CI, 0.67–0.73). The addition of peak skewness to the HFSS model significantly improved the predictive ability with an increase in c-index to 0.74 (CI, 0.69–0.78), likelihood ratio P<0.02, establishing skewness as a predictor of increased event rates when accounting for baseline risk.

Conclusion

The feature skewness, a measure of asymmetry in the intensity level of periods of high physical activity, was identified to be predictive of all-cause mortality independent of the established prognostic model–HFSS and peak VO2. The findings from the present study emphasize the use of accelerometer analysis in clinical practice to make more accurate prognoses in addition to extract features of physical activity relevant to functional classification.

Is cardiopulmonary exercise testing essential to indicate ventricular assist device implantation in patients with INTERMACS profile 4-7?

Cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPXT) is a promising tool for predicting 2-year cardiac death or ventricular assist device (VAD) implantation in patients assigned to INTERMACS profile 4-7. However, CPXT is not available in all hospitals. We evaluated 130 patients <65 years old with advanced heart failure assigned to INTERMACS profile 4-7 who underwent CPXT. CPXT scores (0-8 points), which we created recently, and the Seattle HF Model (SHFM) scores were both significant predictors of 2-year cardiac death or VAD implantation (14 events) by Cox-regression analysis (P < 0.05 for both) and had comparable areas under the curve (AUCs) in receiver operating characteristic analyses (0.811 vs. 0.737, P > 0.05). The combination score: age <46 years and serum sodium concentration <137 mEq/L, both of which were significant predictors of cardiac death or VAD implantation by uni/multivariate Cox-regression analyses, had a significantly higher AUC than did CPXT scores (0.909, P < 0.05). In a validation study, the AUC of the combination score was comparable with that of SHFM among 52 patients <65 years old receiving adaptive servo-ventilator treatment (0.753 vs. 0.794, P > 0.05). In conclusion, VAD indication may be discussed without CPXT in patients <65 years old with INTERMACS profile 4-7 at least in the current Japanese situation.

Durable left ventricular assist device therapy in advanced heart failure: Patient selection and clinical outcomes

The increasing adoption of left ventricular assist devices (LVADs) into clinical practice is related to a combination of engineering advances in pump technology and improvements in understanding the appropriate clinical use of these devices in the management of patients with advanced heart failure. This review intends to assist the clinician in identifying candidates for LVAD implantation, to examine long-term outcomes and provide an overview of the common complications related to use of these devices.

Perioperative Considerations for Children With Right Ventricular Dysfunction and Failing Fontan

The survival of patients with congenital heart diseases (CHD) has increased in the past decades, resulting in the identification of new characteristics of chronic comorbidities observed in pediatric and adults with CHD. Patients with CHD can present with a broad clinical spectrum of manifestations of congestive heart failure (CHF) at any point throughout their lives that may be related to anatomical or surgical variables. This article focuses on the perioperative assessment of patients with CHD and CHF, with an emphasis on pathophysiologic, diagnostic, and therapeutic alternatives in patients with right ventricular failure and failing Fontan circulation. We also provide descriptions of the effects of sedatives and anesthetics commonly used in this population in diagnostic or invasive procedures.

Advanced (stage D) heart failure: a statement from the Heart Failure Society of America Guidelines Committee

We propose that stage D advanced heart failure be defined as the presence of progressive and/or persistent severe signs and symptoms of heart failure despite optimized medical, surgical, and device therapy. Importantly, the progressive decline should be primarily driven by the heart failure syndrome. Formally defining advanced heart failure and specifying when medical and device therapies have failed is challenging, but signs and symptoms, hemodynamics, exercise testing, biomarkers, and risk prediction models are useful in this process. Identification of patients in stage D is a clinically important task because treatments are inherently limited, morbidity is typically progressive, and survival is often short. Age, frailty, and psychosocial issues affect both outcomes and selection of therapy for stage D patients. Heart transplant and mechanical circulatory support devices are potential treatment options in select patients. In addition to considering indications, contraindications, clinical status, and comorbidities, treatment selection for stage D patients involves incorporating the patient's wishes for survival versus quality of life, and palliative and hospice care should be integrated into care plans. More research is needed to determine optimal strategies for patient selection and medical decision making, with the ultimate goal of improving clinical and patient centered outcomes in patients with stage D heart failure.

Physical and psychological symptom profiling and event-free survival in adults with moderate to advanced heart failure

: Heart failure (HF) is a heterogeneous symptomatic disorder. The goal of this study was to identify and link common profiles of physical and psychological symptoms to 1-year event-free survival in adults with moderate to advanced HF.

METHODS

Multiple valid, reliable, and domain-specific measures were used to assess physical and psychological symptoms. Latent class mixture modeling was used to identify distinct symptom profiles. Associations between observed symptom profiles and 1-year event-free survival were quantified using Cox proportional hazards modeling.

RESULTS

The mean age of the participants (n = 202) was 57 ± 13 years, 50% were men, and 60% had class III/IV HF. Three distinct profiles, mild (41.7%), moderate (30.2%), and severe (28.1%), that captured a gradient of both physical and psychological symptom burden were identified (P < .001 for all comparisons). Controlling for the Seattle HF Score, adults with the moderate symptom profile were 82% more likely (hazard ratio, 1.82; 95% confidence interval, 1.07-3.11; P = .028) and adults with the severe symptom profile were more than twice as likely (hazard ratio, 2.06; 95% confidence interval, 1.21-3.52; P = .001) to have a clinical event within 1 year than patients with the mild symptom profile.

CONCLUSIONS

Profiling patterns among physical and psychological symptoms identifies HF patient subgroups with significantly worse 1-year event-free survival independent of prognostication based on objective clinical HF data.

Gender aspects in clinical presentation and prognostication of chronic heart failure according to NT-proBNP and the Heart Failure Survival Score

AIMS

We performed a prospective multi-center study to assess gender-specific differences in the predictive value of the measured level of NT-proBNP and the calculated Heart Failure Survival Score (HFSS).

METHODS

Baseline characteristics and follow-up data up to 5 years from 2,019 men and 530 women diagnosed with chronic heart failure (CHF) due to ischemic heart disease or dilated cardiomyopathy were prospectively compared. Death from any cause constituted the endpoint of the study. NT-proBNP was measured and HFSS calculated according to standard methods. Survival of men and women according to level of NT-proBNP and HFSS was analyzed in logistic regression models.

RESULTS

Median NT-proBNP level in men was 1,394 ng/l (IQR 516-3,406 ng/l) and 1,168 ng/l (IQR 444-2,830 ng/l) in women (p = n.s.). Median HFSS value was 8.4 (IQR 7.7-9.1) and 8.5 (8.0-9.1) in men and women, respectively. NT-proBNP levels and HFSS score correlated well with survival rates in both genders (p for interaction = 0.22 for NT-proBNP and 0.93 for HFSS). The all-cause death rates were similar in men and women.

CONCLUSION

Despite a number of gender-specific differences in CHF and the general predominance of men measured levels of NT-proBNP and HFSS score can be utilized for risk stratification with similar informative value in men and women.

End-of-life care in patients with heart failure

Stage D heart failure (HF) is associated with poor prognosis, yet little consensus exists on the care of patients with HF approaching the end of life. Treatment options for end-stage HF range from continuation of guideline-directed medical therapy to device interventions and cardiac transplantation. However, patients approaching the end of life may elect to forego therapies or procedures perceived as burdensome, or to deactivate devices that were implanted earlier in the disease course. Although discussing end-of-life issues such as advance directives, palliative care, or hospice can be difficult, such conversations are critical to understanding patient and family expectations and to developing mutually agreed-on goals of care. Because patients with HF are at risk for rapid clinical deterioration or sudden cardiac death, end-of-life issues should be discussed early in the course of management. As patients progress to advanced HF, the need for such discussions increases, especially among patients who have declined, failed, or been deemed to be ineligible for advanced HF therapies. Communication to define goals of care for the individual patient and then to design therapy concordant with these goals is fundamental to patient-centered care. The objectives of this white paper are to highlight key end-of-life considerations in patients with HF, to provide direction for clinicians on strategies for addressing end-of-life issues and providing optimal patient care, and to draw attention to the need for more research focusing on end-of-life care for the HF population.

Patient selection for advanced heart failure therapy referral

Despite advances in medical therapy for chronic heart failure (HF), advanced HF carries a dismal prognosis. Options such as transplantation and durable mechanical circulatory support have greatly improved outcomes for these patients, but their introduction has introduced significant complexity to patient management. Although much of this management occurs at specialized heart transplant centers, it is the responsibility of the primary cardiologist of the patient with advanced HF to refer patients at the appropriate time and to help them navigate the difficult decisions related to the pursuit of advanced therapies. We present a unique pathway that incorporates guidelines, recent data, and expert opinion to help general cardiologists determine which patients should be referred for transplantation or durable mechanical circulatory support, and when they should be referred. Decision making on referral to the heart transplant center is also summarized.

Utility of the Seattle Heart Failure Model in patients with cardiac resynchronization therapy and implantable cardioverter defibrillator referred for heart transplantation

BACKGROUND

The Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM) predicts survival in heart failure but may underestimate risk in severe heart failure, and the performance has not been evaluated explicitly in patients with cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) and/or implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) referred for heart transplantation. We aimed to assess the utility of the SHFM by validation in patients with CRT and/or ICD referred for heart transplantation.

METHODS

We assessed the SHFM performance in 382 patients with CRT and/or ICD referred for heart transplantation. Outcome was survival free from urgent transplantation or left ventricular assist device. Model discrimination and calibration were assessed graphically and by formal tests.

RESULTS

During a mean follow-up of 2.3 years, 195 events occurred. One-, 2-, and 3-year observed event-free survival was 77%, 62%, and 52%, and the observed to predicted event-free survival ratio was 0.89, 0.80, and 0.76. Calibration plots demonstrated results deviating from the ideal calibration line at 1, 2, and 3 years. The SHFM score adequately assigned patients in discrete risk strata, according to Kaplan-Meier estimated survival. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve analyses demonstrated good discrimination overall, which was slightly better for 1-year (area under the curve [AUC] 0.774) compared with 2-year (AUC 0.742) and 3-year (AUC 0.728) event-free survival.

CONCLUSIONS

The SHFM has good discrimination but underestimates risk of adverse outcomes in patients with CRT and/or ICD referred for heart transplantation. The SHFM may be used to assess relative risk and changes over time, but when assessing absolute percentage of event-free survival, the overestimation of event-free survival should be accounted for.

Assessment of a University of California, Los Angeles 4-variable risk score for advanced heart failure

BACKGROUND

The 4-variable risk score from University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) demonstrated superior discrimination in advanced heart failure, compared to established risk scores. However, the model has not been externally validated, and its suitability as a selection tool for heart transplantation (HT) and left ventricular assist device (LVAD) is unknown.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We calculated the UCLA risk score (based on B-type natriuretic peptide, peak VO2, New York Heart Association class, and use of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or angiotensin receptor blocker) in 180 patients referred for HT. The outcome was survival free from urgent transplantation or LVAD. The model-predicted survival was compared to Kaplan-Meier's estimated survival at 1, 2, and 3 years. Model discrimination and calibration were assessed. During a mean follow-up of 2.1 years, 37 (21%) events occurred. One-, 2- and 3-year observed event-free survival was 88%, 81%, and 75%, and the observed/predicted ratio was 0.97, 0.96, and 0.97, respectively. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve analyses demonstrated good discrimination overall (1-year area under curve, 0.801; 2-year, 0.774; 3-year, 0.837), but discrimination between the 2 highest risk groups was poor. The difference between observed and predicted survival ranged from -14 to +17 percentage points, suggesting poor model calibration. Fairly similar results were found when the analyses were repeated in 715 patients after multivariate imputation of missing data.

CONCLUSIONS

The UCLA 4-variable risk model calibration was inconsistent and high-risk discrimination was poor in an external validation cohort. Further model assessment is warranted before widespread use.

Current indications for heart transplantation and left ventricular assist device: a practical point of view

Heart transplantation (HTx) is considered the "gold standard" therapy of refractory heart failure (HF), but it is accessible only to few patients because of the paucity of suitable heart donors. On the other hand, left ventricular assist devices (LVADs) have proven to be effective in improving survival and quality of life in patients with refractory HF. The challenge encountered by multidisciplinary teams in dealing with advanced HF lies in identifying patients who could benefit more from HTx as compared to LVAD implantation and the appropriate timing. The decision-making is based on clinical parameters, imaging-based data and risk scores. Current outcome of HF patients supported by LVAD (2-year survival around 70%) is rapidly improving and leads the way to a new therapeutic strategy. Patients who have a low likelihood to gain access to the heart graft pool could benefit more from LVAD implantation (defined as bridge to transplantation indication) than from remaining on HTx waiting list with the likely risk of clinical deterioration or removal from the list because patients are no longer suitable for transplantation. LVAD has also demonstrated to be effective in patients who are not considered eligible candidates for HTx with a destination therapy indication. HTx should be reserved to those patients for whom the maximum clinical benefit can be expected, such as young patients with no comorbidities. Here we discuss the current listing criteria for HTx and indications to implant of LVAD for patients with refractory acute and chronic HF based on the guidelines and the practical experience of our center.

Kussmaul Physiology in Patients With Heart Failure

Background—

A paradoxical inspiratory rise in right atrial pressure (in contrast to the normal fall during inspiration), Kussmaul sign, has been described in congestive heart failure (CHF). However, the clinical and hemodynamic characteristics and clinical outcomes of patients with CHF and Kussmaul physiology have not been studied.

Methods and Results—

This is a single-center study of consecutive ambulant patients with CHF (New York Heart Association class III/IV) referred for assessment for heart transplantation between November 2011 and April 2013. Kussmaul physiology was defined as inspiratory rise in right atrial pressure during right heart catheterization. Clinical, biochemical, echocardiographic, and hemodynamic correlates were studied and outcomes assessed in patients with or without Kussmaul physiology after a mean follow-up of 379±227 days. Ninety ambulant patients (age, 53±12 years; 86% men) with CHF were studied. Kussmaul physiology was demonstrated in 39 (43%) patients, and it was associated with higher pulmonary pressures and lower cardiac index and pulmonary capacitance (all P <0.05). Patients with Kussmaul physiology were more likely to be treated with higher doses of diuretics, while higher filling pressures, N-terminal pro–B natriuretic peptide levels, and hyponatremia reflected greater neurohormonal activation. Echocardiography revealed greater left and right ventricular dimensions/volumes, restrictive transmitral filling pattern, and lower left ventricular ejection fraction and lower tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion. Peak oxygen uptake was low and comparable in both groups, but ventilation slope was higher in patients with Kussmaul physiology who also had a higher incidence of post-transplant right ventricular failure and overall mortality ( P <0.05).

Conclusions—

Kussmaul physiology is common in patients with CHF referred for heart transplantation and is associated with adverse cardiopulmonary hemodynamics. As a result of the latter, Kussmaul physiology is associated with poorer clinical outcomes. Kussmaul physiology may be useful during assessment of right heart function and pulmonary pressures before transplantation.

The ADHF/NT-proBNP risk score to predict 1-year mortality in hospitalized patients with advanced decompensated heart failure

BACKGROUND

The acute decompensated heart failure/N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (ADHF/NT-proBNP) score is a validated risk scoring system that predicts mortality in hospitalized heart failure patients with a wide range of left ventricular ejection fractions (LVEFs). We sought to assess discrimination and calibration of the score when applied to patients with advanced decompensated heart failure (AHF).

METHODS

We studied 445 patients hospitalized for AHF, defined by the presence of severe symptoms of worsening HF at admission, severely depressed LVEF, and the need for intravenous diuretic and/or inotropic drugs. The primary outcome was cumulative (in-hospital and post-discharge) mortality and post-discharge 1-year mortality. Separate analyses were performed for patients aged ≤ 70 years. A Seattle Heart Failure Score (SHFS) was calculated for each patient discharged alive.

RESULTS

During follow-up, 144 patients (32.4%) died, and 69 (15.5%) underwent heart transplantation (HT) or ventricular assist device (VAD) implantation. After accounting for the competing events (VAD/HT), the ADHF/NT-proBNP score's C-statistic for cumulative mortality was 0.738 in the overall cohort and 0.771 in patients aged ≤ 70 years. The C-statistic for post-discharge mortality was 0.741 and 0.751, respectively. Adding prior (≤6 months) hospitalizations for HF to the score increased the C-statistic for post-discharge mortality to 0.759 in the overall cohort and to 0.774 in patients aged ≤ 70 years. Predicted and observed mortality rates by quartiles of score were highly correlated. The SHFS demonstrated adequate discrimination but underestimated the risk. The ADHF/NT-proBNP risk calculator is available at http://www.fsm.it/fsm/file/NTproBNPscore.zip.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data suggest that the ADHF/NT-proBNP score may efficiently predict mortality in patients hospitalized with AHF.

Acute decompensated heart failure: update on new and emerging evidence and directions for future research

Acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) is a complex clinical event associated with excess morbidity and mortality. Managing ADHF patients is challenging because of the lack of effective treatments that both reduce symptoms and improve clinical outcomes. Existing guideline recommendations are largely based on expert opinion, but several recently published trials have yielded important data to inform both current clinical practice and future research directions. New insight has been gained regarding volume management, including dosing strategies for intravenous loop diuretics and the role of ultrafiltration in patients with heart failure and renal dysfunction. Although the largest ADHF trial to date (ASCEND-HF, using nesiritide) was neutral, promising results with other investigational agents have been reported. If these findings are confirmed in phase III trials, novel compounds, such as relaxin, omecamtiv mecarbil, and ularitide, among others, may become therapeutic options. Translation of research findings into quality clinical care can not be overemphasized. Although many gaps in knowledge exist, ongoing studies will address issues around delivery of evidence-based care to achieve the goal of improving the health status and clinical outcomes of patients with ADHF.

Risk stratification of ambulatory patients with advanced heart failure undergoing evaluation for heart transplantation

BACKGROUND

Risk stratification of ambulatory heart failure (HF) patients has relied on peak VO(2)<14 ml/kg/min. We investigated whether additional clinical variables might further specify risk of death, ventricular assist device (VAD) implantation (INTERMACS <4) or heart transplantation (HTx, Status 1A or 1B) within 1 year after HTx evaluation. We hypothesized that right ventricular stroke work index (RVSWI), pulmonary capillary wedge pressure (PCWP) and the model for end-stage liver disease-albumin score (MELD-A) would be additive prognostic predictors.

METHODS

We retrospectively collected data on 151 ambulatory patients undergoing HTx evaluation. Primary outcomes were defined as HTx, LVAD or death within 1 year after evaluation.

RESULTS

Average age in our cohort was 55 ± 11.1 years, 79.1% were male and 39% had an ischemic etiology (LVEF 21 ± 10.5% and peak VO(2) 12.6 ± 3.5 ml/kg/min). Fifty outcomes (33.1%) were observed (27 HTxs, 15 VADs and 8 deaths). Univariate logistic regression showed a significant association of RVSWI (OR 0.47, p = 0.036), PCWP (OR 2.65, p = 0.007) and MELD-A (OR 2.73, p = 0.006) with 1-year events. Stepwise regression showed an independent correlation of RVSWI<5gm-m(2)/beat (OR 6.70, p < 0.01), PCWP>20 mm Hg (OR 5.48, p < 0.01), MELD-A>14 (OR 3.72, p< 0.01) and peak VO(2)<14 ml/kg/min (OR 3.36, p = 0.024) with 1-year events. A scoring system was developed: MELD-A>14 and peak VO(2)<14-1 point each; and PCWP>20 and RVSWI<5-2 points each. A cut-off at≥4 demonstrated a 54% sensitivity and 88% specificity for 1-year events.

CONCLUSIONS

Ambulatory HF patients have significant 1-year event rates. Risk stratification based on exercise performance, left-sided congestion, right ventricular dysfunction and liver congestion allows prediction of 1-year prognosis. Our findings support early and timely referral for VAD and/or transplant.