The impact of COVID-19 vaccination on stock market: is there any difference between developed and developing countries?

The stock market reaction to COVID-19 vaccination in ASEAN

Previous studies have shown that the confirmed cases drive investor sentiment, reflecting the stock's return. Based on this, the vaccination growth is also expected to drive the investor's sentiment, which can be reflected in the return of the stock market in ASEAN.  Therefore, this study explores the vaccination impact on stock returns in ASEAN countries. This study contributes to the gap of taking the COVID-19 vaccination impact to the stock return into account by using the panel regression model with HC and Driscoll and Kraay robust covariance matrix estimator, which addresses the cross-dependency and heterogeneity problems. This study is one of the early studies of the topic, especially in ASEAN. The panel regression model with HC and Driscoll and Kraay robust covariance matrix estimator uses three variables: the daily stocks return, vaccine growth, and cases growth. It is a balanced panel data that includes six countries and 117 daily series data, making 702 observations used in the study.  The results show conflicting results where daily vaccination growth negatively affects the stock return. This problem can arise for several reasons, such as the uncertainty in the financial market and cross-dependency and heterogeneity detected in the model. We can see that the investors still have a negative sentiment because COVID-19 has resulted in uncertainty on the financial market in ASEAN. This gives us practical implications that the ASEAN country members' government needs to push vaccination policy more aggressively.

When the market got the first dose: Stock volatility and vaccination campaign in COVID-19 period

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the news of clinical trials for vaccines and mass vaccinations have brought renewed optimism for stabilizing the economy and financial markets. However, the mental stress of investors or doubt about the effectiveness of government policies to cope with economic disruptions has caused stock market volatility. We investigate the significance of the vaccination rate in alleviating the global stock market volatility which is measured by the GJR-GARCH model. We discover that a higher vaccine initiation rate has a positive effect on global stock markets, especially in developed countries and areas with higher rates than their average. Our findings remain reliable even when using different projected volatility models and other estimates of the main independent variables. Mass immunization also implies that governments will not have to take extreme measures to handle the pandemic, which alleviates investor worries about compliance and the prolonged effects of COVID-19. Our research indicates that global stock markets are providing insight into the economic value of the development of COVID-19 vaccines, even before public vaccinations start.