Acute Heart Failure Risk Stratification: Can We Define Low Risk?

Evaluating the prognostic value of systemic immune-inflammatory index in patients with acute decompensated heart failure

AIMS

The value of the systemic immune-inflammatory index (SII) in assessing adverse outcomes in various cardiovascular diseases has been extensively discussed. This study aims to evaluate the predictive value and risk stratification ability of SII for 30 day mortality in patients with acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF).

METHODS

This analysis included 1452 patients hospitalized for ADHF, all the participants being part of the China Jiangxi-acute decompensated heart failure1 project. The risk stratification capability of the SII in patients with ADHF, as well as its correlation with the 30 day mortality risk among ADHF patients, was evaluated utilizing Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and multivariable Cox regression models. A restricted cubic spline was employed to model the dose-response relationship between the two, and the receiver operating characteristic curve was utilized to assess the predictive ability of SII for 30 day mortality.

RESULTS

The Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed that the risk of mortality in the high SII group (SII ≥ 980 × 109/L) was significantly greater than that in the low SII group (SII < 980 × 109/L, log-rank P < 0.001). After adjusting for various confounding factors, a higher SII was associated with an increased risk of 30 day mortality in ADHF patients [hazard ratio (HR) = 2.03, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.34-3.08]. Further restricted cubic spline analysis revealed a non-linear dose-response relationship between the two (P for non-linear = 0.006). Receiver operating characteristic analysis demonstrated that SII had a high accuracy in predicting 30 day mortality events in ADHF patients (AUC = 0.7479), and the optimal predictive threshold was calculated to be 980 × 109/L, a sensitivity of 0.7547 and a specificity of 0.7234.

CONCLUSIONS

This study found a significant positive association between SII and 30 day all-cause mortality in ADHF patients. We determined the SII cut-off point for predicting 30 day all-cause mortality in patients with ADHF to be 980 × 109/L.

Disposition of acute decompensated heart failure from the emergency department: An evidence-based review

INTRODUCTION

Acute heart failure (HF) exacerbation is a serious and common condition seen in the Emergency Department (ED) that has significant morbidity and mortality. There are multiple clinical decision tools that Emergency Physicians (EPs) can use to reach an appropriate evidence-based disposition for these patients.

OBJECTIVE

This narrative review is an evidence-based discussion of clinical decision-making tools aimed to assist EPs risk stratify patients with AHF and determine disposition.

DISCUSSION

Risk stratification in patients with AHF exacerbation presenting to the ED is paramount in reaching an appropriate disposition decision. High risk features include hypotension, hypoxemia, elevated brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) and/or troponin, elevated creatinine, and hyponatremia. Patients who require continuous vasoactive infusions, respiratory support, or are initially treatment-resistant generally require intensive care unit admission. In most instances, new-onset AHF patients should be admitted for further evaluation. Other AHF patients in the ED can be risk stratified with the Ottawa HF Risk Score (OHFRS), the Multiple Estimation of Risk Based on Spanish Emergency Department Score (MEESSI), or the Emergency HF Mortality Risk Grade (EHFMRG). These tools take various factors into account such as mode of arrival to the ED, vital signs, laboratory values like troponin and pro-BNP, and clinical course. If used appropriately, these scores can predict patients at low risk for adverse outcomes.

CONCLUSION

This article discusses evidence-based disposition of patients in acute decompensated HF presenting to the ED. Knowledge of these factors and risk tools can assist emergency clinicians in determining appropriate disposition of patients with HF.

Factors associated with hospital emergency readmission and mortality rates in patients with heart failure or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a national observational study

Background

Heart failure (HF) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) lead to unplanned hospital activity, but our understanding of what drives this is incomplete.

Objectives

To model patient, primary care and hospital factors associated with readmission and mortality for patients with HF and COPD, to assess the statistical performance of post-discharge emergency department (ED) attendance compared with readmission metrics and to compare all the results for the two conditions.

Design

Observational study.

Setting

English NHS.

Participants

All patients admitted to acute non-specialist hospitals as an emergency for HF or COPD.

Interventions

None.

Main outcome measures

One-year mortality and 30-day emergency readmission following the patient’s first unplanned admission (‘index admission’) for HF or COPD.

Data sources

Patient-level data from Hospital Episodes Statistics were combined with publicly available practice- and hospital-level data on performance, patient and staff experience and rehabilitation programme website information.

Results

One-year mortality rates were 39.6% for HF and 24.1% for COPD and 30-day readmission rates were 19.8% for HF and 16.5% for COPD. Most patients were elderly with multiple comorbidities. Patient factors predicting mortality included older age, male sex, white ethnicity, prior missed outpatient appointments, (long) index length of hospital stay (LOS) and several comorbidities. Older age, missed appointments, (short) LOS and comorbidities also predicted readmission. Of the practice and hospital factors we considered, only more doctors per 10 beds [odds ratio (OR) 0.95 per doctor;p < 0.001] was significant for both cohorts for mortality, with staff recommending to friends and family (OR 0.80 per unit increase;p < 0.001) and number of general practitioners (GPs) per 1000 patients (OR 0.89 per extra GP;p = 0.004) important for COPD. For readmission, only hospital size [OR per 100 beds = 2.16, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.34 to 3.48 for HF, and 2.27, 95% CI 1.40 to 3.66 for COPD] and doctors per 10 beds (OR 0.98;p < 0.001) were significantly associated. Some factors, such as comorbidities, varied in importance depending on the readmission diagnosis. ED visits were common after the index discharge, with 75% resulting in admission. Many predictors of admission at this visit were as for readmission minus comorbidities and plus attendance outside the day shift and numbers of admissions that hour. Hospital-level rates for ED attendance varied much more than those for readmission, but the omega statistics favoured them as a performance indicator.

Limitations

Data lacked direct information on disease severity and ED attendance reasons; NHS surveys were not specific to HF or COPD patients; and some data sets were aggregated.

Conclusions

Following an index admission for HF or COPD, older age, prior missed outpatient appointments, LOS and many comorbidities predict both mortality and readmission. Of the aggregated practice and hospital information, only doctors per bed and numbers of hospital beds were strongly associated with either outcome (both negatively). The 30-day ED visits and diagnosis-specific readmission rates seem to be useful performance indicators.

Future work

Hospital variations in ED visits could be investigated using existing data despite coding limitations. Primary care management could be explored using individual-level linked databases.

Funding

The National Institute for Health Research Health Services and Delivery Research programme.

Misconceptions in acute heart failure diagnosis and Management in the Emergency Department

INTRODUCTION

Acute heart failure (AHF) accounts for a significant number of emergency department (ED) visits, and the disease may present along a spectrum with a variety of syndromes.

OBJECTIVE

This review evaluates several misconceptions concerning heart failure evaluation and management in the ED, followed by several pearls.

DISCUSSION

AHF is a heterogeneous syndrome with a variety of presentations. Physicians often rely on natriuretic peptides, but the evidence behind their use is controversial, and these should not be used in isolation. Chest radiograph is often considered the most reliable imaging test, but bedside ultrasound (US) provides a more sensitive and specific evaluation for AHF. Diuretics are a foundation of AHF management, but in pulmonary edema, these medications should only be provided after vasodilator administration, such as nitroglycerin. Nitroglycerin administered in high doses for pulmonary edema is safe and effective in reducing the need for intensive care unit admission. Though classically dopamine is the first vasopressor utilized in patients with hypotensive cardiogenic shock, norepinephrine is associated with improved outcomes and lower mortality. Disposition is complex in patients with AHF, and risk stratification tools in conjunction with other assessments allow physicians to discharge patients safely with follow up.

CONCLUSION

A variety of misconceptions surround the evaluation and management of heart failure including clinical assessment, natriuretic peptide use, chest radiograph and US use, nitroglycerin and diuretics, vasopressor choice, and disposition. This review evaluates these misconceptions while providing physicians with updates in evaluation and management of AHF.

Time-to-Furosemide Treatment and Mortality in Patients Hospitalized With Acute Heart Failure

BACKGROUND

Acute heart failure (AHF) is a life-threatening disease requiring urgent treatment, including a recommendation for immediate initiation of loop diuretics.

OBJECTIVES

The authors prospectively evaluated the association between time-to-diuretic treatment and clinical outcome.

METHODS

REALITY-AHF (Registry Focused on Very Early Presentation and Treatment in Emergency Department of Acute Heart Failure) was a prospective, multicenter, observational cohort study that primarily aimed to assess the association between time to loop diuretic treatment and clinical outcome in patients with AHF admitted through the emergency department (ED). Door-to-furosemide (D2F) time was defined as the time from patient arrival at the ED to the first intravenous furosemide injection. Patients with a D2F time <60 min were pre-defined as the early treatment group. Primary outcome was all-cause in-hospital mortality.

RESULTS

Among 1,291 AHF patients treated with intravenous furosemide within 24 h of ED arrival, the median D2F time was 90 min (IQR: 36 to 186 min), and 481 patients (37.3%) were categorized as the early treatment group. These patients were more likely to arrive by ambulance and had more signs of congestion compared with the nonearly treatment group. In-hospital mortality was significantly lower in the early treatment group (2.3% vs. 6.0% in the nonearly treatment group; p = 0.002). In multivariate analysis, earlier treatment remained significantly associated with lower in-hospital mortality (odds ratio: 0.39; 95% confidence interval: 0.20 to 0.76; p = 0.006).

CONCLUSIONS

In this prospective multicenter, observational cohort study of patients presenting at the ED for AHF, early treatment with intravenous loop diuretics was associated with lower in-hospital mortality. (Registry focused on very early presentation and treatment in emergency department of acute heart failure syndrome; UMIN000014105).

Acute Heart Failure: Alternatives to Hospitalization

Acute heart failure (HF) is a major public health problem with substantial associated economic costs. Because most patients who present to hospitals are admitted irrespective of their level of risk, novel approaches to manage acute HF are needed, such as the use of same-day access clinics for outpatient diuresis and observation units from the emergency department. Current published data lacks a comprehensive overview of the present state of acute HF management in various clinical settings. This review summarizes the strengths and limitations of acute HF care in the outpatient and emergency department settings. Finally, a variety of innovative technologies that have the potential to improve acute HF management are discussed.

Prospective and Explicit Clinical Validation of the Ottawa Heart Failure Risk Scale, With and Without Use of Quantitative NT-proBNP

OBJECTIVES

We previously developed the Ottawa Heart Failure Risk Scale (OHFRS) to assist with disposition decisions for acute heart failure patients in the emergency department (ED). We sought to prospectively evaluate the accuracy, acceptability, and potential impact of OHFRS.

METHODS

This prospective observational cohort study was conducted at six tertiary hospital EDs. Patients with acute heart failure were evaluated by ED physicians for the 10 OHFRS criteria and then followed for 30 days. Quantitative NT-proBNP was measured where feasible. Serious adverse event (SAE) was defined as death within 30 days, admission to monitored unit, intubation, noninvasive ventilation, myocardial infarction, or relapse resulting in hospital admission within 14 days.

RESULTS

We enrolled 1,100 patients with mean (±SD) age 77.7 (±10.7) years. SAEs occurred in 170 (15.5%) cases (19.4% if admitted and 10.2% if discharged). Compared to actual practice, using an admission threshold of OHFRS score > 1 would have increased sensitivity (71.8% vs. 91.8%) but increased admissions (57.2% vs. 77.6%). For 684 cases with NT-proBNP values, using a threshold score > 1 would have significantly increased sensitivity (69.8% vs. 95.8%) while increasing admissions (60.8% vs. 88.0%). In only 11.9% of cases did physicians indicate discomfort with use of OHFRS.

CONCLUSION

Prospective clinical validation found the OHFRS tool to be highly sensitive for SAEs in acute heart failure patients, albeit with an increase in admission rates. When available, NT-proBNP values further improve sensitivity. With adequate physician training, OHFRS should help improve and standardize admission practices, diminishing both unnecessary admissions for low-risk patients and unsafe discharge decisions for high-risk patients.

Considerations for initial therapy in the treatment of acute heart failure

The diagnosis of patients presenting to the emergency department with acute heart failure (AHF) is challenging due to the similarity of AHF symptoms to other conditions such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and pneumonia. Additionally, because AHF is most common in an older population, the presentation of coexistent pathologies further increases the challenge of making an accurate diagnosis and selecting the most appropriate treatment. Delays in the diagnosis and treatment of AHF can result in worse outcomes and higher healthcare costs. Rapid initiation of treatment is thus necessary for optimal disease management. Early treatment decisions for patients with AHF can be guided by risk-stratification models based on initial clinical data, including blood pressure, levels of troponin, blood urea nitrogen, serum creatinine, B-type natriuretic peptide, and ultrasound. In this review, we discuss methods for differentiating high-risk and low-risk patients and provide guidance on how treatment decisions can be informed by risk-level assessment. Through the use of these approaches, emergency physicians can play an important role in improving patient management, preventing unnecessary hospitalizations, and lowering healthcare costs. This review differs from others published recently on the topic of treating AHF by providing a detailed examination of the clinical utility of diagnostic tools for the differentiation of dyspneic patients such as bedside ultrasound, hemodynamic changes, and interrogation of implantable cardiac devices. In addition, our clinical guidance on considerations for initial pharmacologic therapy in the undifferentiated patient is provided. It is crucial for emergency physicians to achieve an early diagnosis of AHF and initiate therapy in order to reduce morbidity, mortality, and healthcare costs.

Plasma bioactive adrenomedullin as a prognostic biomarker in acute heart failure

OBJECTIVE

The objective was to evaluate the prognostic performance of a new biomarker, plasma bioactive adrenomedullin (bio-ADM), for short-term clinical outcomes in acute heart failure.

METHODS

A multicenter prospective cohort study of adult emergency department (ED) patients suspected of having acute heart failure was conducted to evaluate the association between plasma bio-ADM concentration and clinical outcomes. The primary outcome was a composite of the following within 30 days: death, cardiac arrest with resuscitation, respiratory failure, emergency dialysis, acute coronary syndrome, hospitalization >5 days, and repeat ED visit or hospitalization. Prognostic accuracy was evaluated with a nonparametric receiver operating characteristic curve. In addition, a multivariable logistic regression model was constructed to assess the additive prognostic performance of bio-ADM while adjusting for other biomarkers routinely used clinically, including B-type natriuretic peptide, cardiac troponin I, creatinine, and sodium concentration.

RESULTS

Two hundred forty-six patients were enrolled, including 85 (34.6%) patients with the primary outcome. Plasma bio-ADM concentrations were higher among patients who experienced the primary outcome (median, 80.5 pg/mL; interquartile range [IQR], 53.7-151.5 pg/mL) compared with those who did not (median, 54.4 pg/mL; IQR, 43.4-78.4 pg/mL) (P < .01). Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.70 (95% confidence interval, 0.63-0.75). After adjusting for the other biomarkers, plasma bio-ADM remained a strong predictor of the primary outcome (adjusted odds ratio per IQR change, 2.68; 95% confidence interval, 1.60-4.51).

CONCLUSIONS

Bioactive adrenomedullin concentrations at the time of ED evaluation for acute heart failure were predictive of clinically important 30-day outcomes, suggesting that bio-ADM is a promising prognostic marker for further study.

Challenges in acute heart failure clinical management: optimizing care despite incomplete evidence and imperfect drugs

Acute heart failure is a common condition associated with considerable morbidity, mortality, and cost. However, evidence-based data on treating heart failure in the acute setting are limited, and current individual treatment options have variable efficacy. The healthcare team must often individualize patient care in ways that may extend beyond available clinical guidelines. In this review, we address the question, "How do you do the best you can clinically with incomplete evidence and imperfect drugs?" Expert opinion is provided to supplement guideline-based recommendations and help address the typical challenges that are involved in the management of patients with acute heart failure. Specifically, we discuss 4 key areas that are important in the continuum of patient care: differential diagnosis and risk stratification; choice and implementation of initial therapy; assessment of the adequacy of therapy during hospitalization or observation; and considerations for discharge/transition of care. A case study is presented to highlight the decision-making process throughout each of these areas. Evidence is accumulating that should help guide patients and healthcare providers on a path to better quality of care.

Early management of patients with acute heart failure: state of the art and future directions. A consensus document from the society for academic emergency medicine/heart failure society of America acute heart failure working group

Heart failure (HF) afflicts nearly 6 million Americans, resulting in one million emergency department (ED) visits and over one million annual hospital discharges. An aging population and improved survival from cardiovascular diseases is expected to further increase HF prevalence. Emergency providers play a significant role in the management of patients with acute heart failure (AHF). It is crucial that emergency physicians and other providers involved in early management understand the latest developments in diagnostic testing, therapeutics and alternatives to hospitalization. Further, clinical trials must be conducted in the ED in order to improve the evidence base and drive optimal initial therapy for AHF. Should ongoing and future studies suggest early phenotype-driven therapy improves in-hospital and post-discharge outcomes, ED treatment decisions will need to evolve accordingly. The potential impact of future studies which incorporate risk-stratification into ED disposition decisions cannot be underestimated. Predictive instruments that identify a cohort of patients safe for ED discharge, while simultaneously addressing barriers to successful outpatient management, have the potential to significantly impact quality of life and resource expenditures.

Early management of patients with acute heart failure: state of the art and future directions--a consensus document from the SAEM/HFSA acute heart failure working group

Heart failure (HF) afflicts nearly 6 million Americans, resulting in 1 million emergency department (ED) visits and over 1 million annual hospital discharges. The majority of inpatient admissions originate in the ED; thus, it is crucial that emergency physicians and other providers involved in early management understand the latest developments in diagnostic testing, therapeutics, and alternatives to hospitalization. This article discusses contemporary ED management as well as the necessary next steps for ED-based acute HF research.

The burden of acute heart failure on U.S. emergency departments

OBJECTIVES

The goal of this study was to examine 2006 to 2010 emergency department (ED) admission rates, hospital procedures, lengths of stay, and costs for acute heart failure (AHF).

BACKGROUND

Patients with AHF are often admitted and are associated with high readmissions and cost.

METHODS

We utilized Nationwide Emergency Department Sample AHF data from 2006 to 2010 to describe admission proportion, hospital length of stay (LOS), and ED charges as a surrogate for resource utilization. Results were compared across U.S. regions, patient insurance status, and hospital characteristics.

RESULTS

There were 958,167 mean yearly ED visits for AHF in the United States. Fifty-one percent of the patients were female, and the median age was 75.1 years (interquartile range [IQR]: 62.5 to 83.7 years). Overall, 83.7% (95% confidence interval: 83.1% to 84.2%) were admitted; the median LOS was 3.4 days (IQR: 1.9 to 5.8 days). Comparing 2006 with 2010, there was a small decrease in median LOS (0.09 days), but the proportion admitted did not change. Odds of admission, adjusting for age, sex, hospital characteristic (academic and safety net status), and insurance (Medicare, Medicaid, private, self-pay/no charge) were highest in the Northeast. Median ED charges were $1,075 (IQR: $679 to $1,665) in 2006 and $1,558 (IQR: $1,018 to $2,335) in 2010. Patients without insurance were more likely to be discharged from the ED, but when admitted, were more likely to receive a major diagnostic or therapeutic procedure.

CONCLUSIONS

A very high proportion of ED patients with AHF are admitted nationally, with significant variation in disposition and procedural decisions based on region of the country and type of insurance, even after adjusting for potential confounding.

Treatment of acute heart failure in the emergency department

Millions of patients are hospitalized for acute heart failure (AHF) every year throughout the world. Despite tremendous advances in cardiovascular care, morbidity and mortality for AHF remain high, consuming billions of health care dollars. With the aging of the population, the incidence and prevalence of HF is projected to increase. Yet, initial treatment of AHF today is similar to 40 years ago. Multiple studies have yielded new insights regarding initial management, with regards to both treatment and strategies of care. These advances will be reviewed in the context of initial or early AHF management. There remains, however, an unmet need to improve outcomes for AHF patients.

Rehospitalization for heart failure: problems and perspectives

With a prevalence of 5.8 million in the United States alone, heart failure (HF) is associated with high morbidity, mortality, and healthcare expenditures. Close to 1 million hospitalizations for heart failure (HHF) occur annually, accounting for over 6.5 million hospital days and a substantial portion of the estimated $37.2 billion that is spent each year on HF in the United States. Although some progress has been made in reducing mortality in patients hospitalized with HF, rates of rehospitalization continue to rise, and approach 30% within 60 to 90 days of discharge. Approximately half of HHF patients have preserved or relatively preserved ejection fraction (EF). Their post-discharge event rate is similar to those with reduced EF. HF readmission is increasingly being used as a quality metric, a basis for hospital reimbursement, and an outcome measure in HF clinical trials. In order to effectively prevent HF readmissions and improve overall outcomes, it is important to have a complete and longitudinal characterization of HHF patients. This paper highlights management strategies that when properly implemented may help reduce HF rehospitalizations and include adopting a mechanistic approach to cardiac abnormalities, treating noncardiac comorbidities, increasing utilization of evidence-based therapies, and improving care transitions, monitoring, and disease management.

National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute working group on emergency department management of acute heart failure: research challenges and opportunities

This paper details the substance and recommendations arising from a meeting convened by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute in August 2009, to assess the challenges and opportunities of emergency department management of acute heart failure syndrome (AHFS). The assembled faculty represented a large cross section of medical professionals spanning the medical management continuum of patients presenting with acute heart failure and included heart failure cardiologists, emergency physicians, laboratory medicine specialists, nurses, and bench scientists. Their recommendations include proposals regarding the design and conduct of emergency department-based clinical trials, suggestions regarding the development of improved methods for early detection and monitoring of AHFS, and potential needs for expanding translational and applied AHFS focused research and biotechnology. We anticipate that this review will serve as a starting point for future investigations across the spectrum of funding sources.

Emergency physicians' risk attitudes in acute decompensated heart failure patients

OBJECTIVES

Despite the existence of various clinical prediction rules, no data exist defining what frequency of death or serious nonfatal outcomes comprises a realistic "low-risk" group for clinicians. This exploratory study sought to identify emergency physicians' (EPs) definition of low-risk acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) emergency department (ED) patients.

METHODS

Surveys were mailed to full-time physicians (n = 88) in a multihospital EP group in southwestern Pennsylvania between December 2004 and February 2005. Participation was voluntary, and each EP was asked to define low risk (low risk of all-cause 30-day death and low risk of either hospital death or other serious medical complications) and choose a risk threshold at which they might consider outpatient management for those with ADHF. A range of choices was offered (<0.5, <1, <2, <3, <4, and <5%), and demographic data were collected.

RESULTS

The response rate was 80%. Physicians defined low risk both for all-cause 30-day death and for hospital death or other serious complications, at <1% (38.8 and 40.3%, respectively). The decision threshold to consider outpatient therapy was <0.5% risk both for all-cause 30-day death (44.6%) and for hospital death or serious medical complications (44.4%).

CONCLUSIONS

Emergency physicians in this exploratory study define low-risk ADHF patients as having less than a 1% risk of 30-day death or inpatient death or complications. They state a desire to have and use an ADHF clinical prediction rule that can identify low-risk ADHF patients who have less than a 0.5% risk of 30-day death or inpatient death or complications.