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Zangeneh A, Najafi F, Khosravi A, Ziapour A, Molavi H, Moradi Z, Bakhshi S, Shadmani FK, Karamimatin B, Soofi M. Epidemiological patterns and spatiotemporal analysis of cardiovascular disease mortality in Iran: Development of public health strategies and policies. Curr Probl Cardiol 2024; 49:102675. [PMID: 38795799 DOI: 10.1016/j.cpcardiol.2024.102675] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/15/2024] [Accepted: 05/20/2024] [Indexed: 05/28/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) stand out as the leading cause of mortality, and the mortality rate attributed to this disease is notably elevated in Iran. Consequently, dedicated studies on CVD become imperative. METHODS This cross-sectional study utilized data from the death registration system of the Ministry of Health, Treatment and Medical Education of Iran. In this study, the statistical population of all people who died due to CVD in Iran were18,146, 21,945, and 24,352 individuals in the years 2017, 2018, and 2019, respectively. The primary objective is to conduct a spatiotemporal analysis of CVD mortality spatiotemporally using GIS-based methodologies. To achieve this, CVD mortality data at the township level for the years 2017, 2018, and 2019 in Iran are subjected to spatial statistical tests, including Anselin Local Moran's I and Hot Spot Analysis (Getis-Ord Gi*), as well as analytical techniques such as Mean Center (MC), (SD), and (GIS). RESULTS The study identified a rising trend in cardiovascular disease-related deaths in Iran, reaching (46.36% females and 53.64 males), (45.39% females and 54.61% males) and (45.67% females and 54.33% males) individuals in the years 2017, 2018, and 2019, respectively. Throughout this period, the mortality rate was higher among men, with the elderly showing the highest mortality. Notably, distinct hotspots of cardiovascular disease mortality emerged in the western, southern, and eastern regions of Iran. These findings emphasize the importance of targeted interventions and further investigation into the contributing factors in these specific geographic areas. CONCLUSION Geographic factors are identified as significant contributors to an elevated risk of cardiovascular disease mortality. Our study, shedding light on the spatial dynamics of the disease, offers valuable insights for decision-makers. The findings can contribute to the formulation of effective strategies and policies, aligning with a Holistic Cardiovascular Health Strategy, Gender-Based Healthcare Policies, and Spatial Planning and Environmental Policies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alireza Zangeneh
- Social Development and Health Promotion Research Center, Health Institute, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
| | - Farid Najafi
- Research Center for Environmental Determinants of Health (RCEDH), Health Institute, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
| | - Ardeshir Khosravi
- Center for Health Network Management, Deputy for Public Health, Ministry of Health and Medical Education, Tehran, Iran
| | - Arash Ziapour
- Cardiovascular Research Center, Health Institute, Imam-Ali hospital, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
| | - Homa Molavi
- Department of Engineering Management, School of Engineering, The university of Manchester, UK. Manchester, UK
| | - Zahra Moradi
- Clinical Research Development Center, Imam Khomeini Hospitals, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
| | - Saeedeh Bakhshi
- Cardiovascular Research Center, Health Institute, Imam-Ali hospital, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
| | - Fatemeh Khosravi Shadmani
- Research Center for Environmental Determinants of Health (RCEDH), Health Institute, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
| | - Behzad Karamimatin
- Research Center for Environmental Determinants of Health (RCEDH), Health Institute, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
| | - Moslem Soofi
- Social Development and Health Promotion Research Center, Health Institute, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran.
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Khazaie H, Zanganeh A, Ziapour A, Teimouri R, Saeidi S, Zakiei A, Salimi S, Moghadam S, Pourmirza Kalhori R, Khezeli M, Farahmandmoghadam N. Investigation of spatial pattern of apnea disorder using geographic information system (GIS)-case study of Kermanshah metropolis. J Public Health Res 2023; 12:22799036231181175. [PMID: 37333030 PMCID: PMC10272661 DOI: 10.1177/22799036231181175] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/19/2022] [Accepted: 05/21/2023] [Indexed: 06/20/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Apnea disorder is influenced by social and environmental factors. By assessing its hot spots and geography, the foci of this disorder and its at-risk groups can be identified for health interventions. This study was conducted to investigate the spatial pattern of apnea disorder using GIS in the Kermanshah metropolis. Methods In cross-sectional study was conducted in kermanshah, the statistical population were 119 people (73.95% male and 26.05% female) of Kermanshah residents, which referred to the sleep center from 2012 to 2018 due to apnea disorder. Information was collected from the records of patients referred to the Sleep Disorder Center of Farabi Hospital, which is the only service center in the west part of Iran. The statistical tests were the mean center, standard distance, Getis-Ord Gi * index, nearest neighbor index, and kernel density estimation test in GIS software. Results The spatial pattern of patients with apnea disorder has cluster formation in the Kermanshah metropolis. The age group of 50-54 had more apnea disorder than other age groups. In this age group, women were more prone to apnea than men. In terms of education, people with high education are more affected by this disorder; So that with the increase in education level, apnea disorder had also increased. Also, the findings showed that the disorder was more common in unemployed, married, overweight people with BMI (25-30), and obese people (30-40). Conclusion The spatial pattern of patients with apnea disorder was clustered and does not correspond to the high population density centers located in the marginal and slum areas of the city. These can be used by stakeholders, including governmental organizations and health authorities at the national-regional level.
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Affiliation(s)
- Habibolah Khazaie
- Department of Psychiatry, School of Medicine Sleep Disorders Research Center, Research Institute for Health, Farabi Hospital, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
| | - Alireza Zanganeh
- Social Development and Health Promotion Research Center, Health Institute, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
| | - Arash Ziapour
- Cardiovascular Research Center, Health Institute, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
| | - Raziyeh Teimouri
- UniSA Creative, University of South Australia, Adelaide, SA, Australia
| | - Shahram Saeidi
- Social Development and Health Promotion Research Center, Health Institute, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
| | - Ali Zakiei
- Department of Psychiatry, School of Medicine Sleep Disorders Research Center, Research Institute for Health, Farabi Hospital, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
| | - Saeed Salimi
- School of Medicine Sleep Disorders Research Center, Research Institute for Health, Farabi Hospital, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
| | | | - Reza Pourmirza Kalhori
- Department of Medical Emergencies, School of Paramedical, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
| | - Mehdi Khezeli
- Social Development and Health Promotion Research Center, Health Institute, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
| | - Naser Farahmandmoghadam
- Clinical Research Development Center, Imam Khomeini and Mohammad Kermanshahi Hospitals, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
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Zanganeh A, Ziapour A, Naderlou R, Teimouri R, Janjani P, Yenneti K. Evaluating the access of slum residents to healthcare centers in Kermanshah Metropolis, Iran (1996-2016): A spatial justice analysis. Heliyon 2022; 9:e12731. [PMID: 36685373 PMCID: PMC9849978 DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e12731] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/07/2022] [Revised: 12/19/2022] [Accepted: 12/22/2022] [Indexed: 12/31/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Proper access to health care centres and services is one of the key indicators of health justice, and it is more than ever important in slums. Objective This aim of this research is to evaluate the accessibility of health care centres to slum residents in the Kermanshah metropolis, Iran during the period 1996-2016. Methods In this cross-sectional study, data was obtained from the Census of Iran for the periods 1996, 2006 and 2016. Information on the number and location of health care centres was collected from the Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences. Network Analysis modelling method in Arc/GIS10.6 software was used to evaluate the accessibility of people to health centres. Results The results show that the spatial pattern of health centres in Kermanshah was random during 1996, 2006 and 2016, but the spatial pattern of poverty in the metropolis was clustered. In addition, the distribution of health centres was not consistent with the population densities. However, the overall population with inappropriate access to health centres in the slums of Kermanshah metropolis decreased over the study period (1996-54.02%, 2006-51.09%, and 2016-34.71%). Conclusions The findings of the study reveal that access to health care services by the slum population is not consistent with the increase of health care centres. This means that health policymakers were unsuccessful to provide the required health care services for the slums.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alireza Zanganeh
- Social Development and Health Promotion Research Center, Health Institute, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
| | - Arash Ziapour
- Cardiovascular Research Center, Health Institute, Imam-Ali Hospital, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran,Corresponding author.
| | | | - Raziyeh Teimouri
- UniSA Creative, University of South Australia, Adelaide, Australia
| | - Parisa Janjani
- Cardiovascular Research Center, Health Institute, Imam-Ali Hospital, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
| | - Komali Yenneti
- School of Architecture and the Built Environment, University of Wolverhampton, UK
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Almasi A, Zangeneh A, Ziapour A, Saeidi S, Teimouri R, Ahmadi T, Khezeli M, Moradi G, Soofi M, Salimi Y, Rajabi-Gilan N, Ramin Ghasemi S, Heydarpour F, Moghadam S, Yigitcanlar T. Investigating Global Spatial Patterns of Diarrhea-Related Mortality in Children Under Five. Front Public Health 2022; 10:861629. [PMID: 35910920 PMCID: PMC9334699 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.861629] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/24/2022] [Accepted: 05/31/2022] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
ObjectiveInvestigating the trends of child diarrhea-related mortality (DRM) is crucial to tracking and monitoring the progress of its prevention and control efforts worldwide. This study explores the spatial patterns of diarrhea-related mortality in children under five for monitoring and designing effective intervention programs.MethodsThe data used in this study was obtained from the World Health Organization (WHO) public dataset that contained data from 195 countries from the year 2000 to 2017. This dataset contained 13,541,989 DRM cases. The worldwide spatial pattern of DRM was analyzed at the country level utilizing geographic information system (GIS) software. Moran's I, Getis-Ord Gi, Mean center, and Standard Deviational Ellipse (SDE) techniques were used to conduct the spatial analysis.ResultsThe spatial pattern of DRM was clustered all across the world during the study period from 2000 to 2017. The results revealed that Asian and African countries had the highest incidence of DRM worldwide. The findings from the spatial modeling also revealed that the focal point of death from diarrhea was mainly in Asian countries until 2010, and this focus shifted to Africa in 2011.ConclusionDRM is common among children who live in Asia and Africa. These concentrations may also be due to differences in knowledge, attitude, and practices regarding diarrhea. Through GIS analysis, the study was able to map the distribution of DRM in temporal and spatial dimensions and identify the hotspots of DRM across the globe.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ali Almasi
- Social Development and Health Promotion Research Center, Health Institute, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
| | - Alireza Zangeneh
- Social Development and Health Promotion Research Center, Health Institute, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
- *Correspondence: Alireza Zangeneh
| | - Arash Ziapour
- Cardiovascular Research Center, Health Institute, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
| | - Shahram Saeidi
- Social Development and Health Promotion Research Center, Health Institute, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
| | - Raziyeh Teimouri
- Department of Art, Architecture, and Design, University of South Australia, Adelaide, SA, Australia
| | - Tohid Ahmadi
- Geography and Urban Planning, Academic Member of Academic Center for Education, Culture and Research (ACECR), Shahid Beheshti University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
| | - Mehdi Khezeli
- Social Development and Health Promotion Research Center, Health Institute, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
| | - Ghobad Moradi
- Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Research Institute for Health Development, Kurdistan University of Medical Sciences, Sanandaj, Iran
| | - Moslem Soofi
- Social Development and Health Promotion Research Center, Health Institute, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
| | - Yahya Salimi
- Social Development and Health Promotion Research Center, Health Institute, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
| | - Nader Rajabi-Gilan
- Social Development and Health Promotion Research Center, Health Institute, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
| | - Seyed Ramin Ghasemi
- Research Center for Environmental Determinants of Health (RCEDH), Health Institute, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
| | - Fatemeh Heydarpour
- Medical Biology Research Center, Health Technology Institute, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
| | | | - Tan Yigitcanlar
- School of Architecture and Built Environment, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
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Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic is a severe ongoing health crisisworldwide. Studying the socio-economic impacts of COVID-19 can help policymakers develop successful pandemic management plans. This paper focuses on the spatial epidemiology of COVID-19 among different social classes in the Kermanshah metropolis, Iran. This cross-sectional study uses the data of people infected with COVID-19 in the Kermanshah metropolis in 2020, acquired from the official COVID-19 Registry of Kermanshah. The results show that 2013 people were infected with COVID-19 (male = 1164 and female = 849). The mean age of the patients was 45 ± 18.69. The Moran’s I show that COVID-19 in different social classes was clustered across the neighbourhoods in the Kermanshah metropolis. The mean ages of men and women were 44.51 ± 18.62 and 45.69 ± 18.76, respectively. Importantly, COVID-19 was highly prevalent in the middle-class groups. Age group comparisons indicate that older people were the most infected in poorer neighbourhoods. In the middle-classtheage group of 0–14 years and in the rich neighbourhoods the age group of 15–64 years were the most exposed to the disease. The findings of this study suggest that older people and lower socioeconomic classes should be prioritised while developing and implementing preventative programs for COVID-19 and similar pandemics.
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Khademi N, Zanganeh A, Saeidi S, Teimouri R, Khezeli M, Jamshidi B, Yigitcanlar T, Salimi Y, Almasi A, Gholami Kiaee K. Quality of life of HIV-infected individuals: insights from a study of patients in Kermanshah, Iran. BMC Infect Dis 2021; 21:203. [PMID: 33622262 PMCID: PMC7903600 DOI: 10.1186/s12879-021-05908-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 9] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/12/2020] [Accepted: 02/16/2021] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Quality of life (QOL) is one of the major factors to assessing the health and wellbeing of People living with HIV (PLWH). Likewise, improved QOL is among the prominent goals of patient treatment. This study was conducted to investigate the QOL of PLWH in Kermanshah, Iran. Methods This cross-sectional study was conducted on 364 PLWH of Kermanshah between 2016 and 2017. Outpatients were selected as the sample through the convenience sampling method from HIV Positive Clients of Kermanshah Behavioral Diseases Counseling Center. The reasons for the selection of outpatients include: (a) some patients were substance users, homeless or did not have a fixed address to follow-up; (b) addresses and personal details that were registered on the first admission were incorrect or incomplete; (c) due to financial issues, some were forced to relocate frequently and were difficult to track; (d) some patients were convicts or prisoners, making it hard to find them after their release; (e) some of them were from other provinces, where managing access was not easy/possible. Data was collected using WHOQOL-HIV BREF questionnaire (Persian Version). Data also analyzed with STATA 14, and SPSS 23 using T-test and multiple regression. Results This study showed that mean (SD) age of PLWH was 40.21 (10.45) years. Females had better QOL than males except for spirituality, religion and personal beliefs. The gender differences disappeared in multivariate results. A significant association was observed between education and the independence, environment, and spirituality domains of QOL. In addition, being married was correlated with overall QOL, psychological and social relationships domains of QOL of PLWH. Drug use was a behavioral factor with negative influence on the QOL. Conclusion This study found that marital status and drug use were the main predictors of various domains of QOL. Drug use was a behavioral factor with a negative influence on the QOL. Hence, it is recommended that health professionals, planners, and policymakers take effective measures to improve the status quo.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nahid Khademi
- Vice Chancellery for Disease Prevention and Control, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
| | - Alireza Zanganeh
- Social Development and Health Promotion Research Center, Health Institute, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran.
| | - Shahram Saeidi
- Social Development and Health Promotion Research Center, Health Institute, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
| | - Raziyeh Teimouri
- UniSA Creative, University of South Australia, Adelaide, Australia
| | - Mehdi Khezeli
- Social Development and Health Promotion Research Center, Health Institute, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
| | - Babak Jamshidi
- Social Development and Health Promotion Research Center, Health Institute, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
| | - Tan Yigitcanlar
- School of Built Environment, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia
| | - Yahya Salimi
- Social Development and Health Promotion Research Center, Health Institute, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
| | - Ali Almasi
- Social Development and Health Promotion Research Center, Health Institute, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
| | - Kobra Gholami Kiaee
- Social Development and Health Promotion Research Center, Health Institute, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
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A Comparative Study of Spatial Distribution of Gastrointestinal Cancers in Poverty and Affluent Strata (Kermanshah Metropolis, Iran). J Gastrointest Cancer 2020; 50:838-847. [PMID: 30136201 DOI: 10.1007/s12029-018-0163-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/01/2023]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION The trend of cancers has witnessed a twofold rise in the last three decades, which is expected to be fivefold by 2030. On the other hand, gastrointestinal cancers have turned into one of the health issues in many societies. Given the presence of gastrointestinal cancer hot spots and evidence of health inequalities across Kermanshah Metropolis and the results of studies signaling the association between gastrointestinal cancers and socioeconomic status of individuals as well as evidence of unequal socioeconomic opportunities in this metropolis, the present study aimed to investigate the spatial distribution of gastrointestinal cancers in the poverty and affluent strata of Kermanshah Metropolis, Iran. MATERIALS AND METHODS In this descriptive-analytical study, the recorded data of patients, suffering from gastrointestinal cancers, in Kermanshah-based Pathology Centers and Vice Chancellery of Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences (2007-2012) were used. Moreover, to examine the status of gastrointestinal cancers in socioeconomic classes based on the census data collected during 2007-2012, 33 social, cultural, and structural indexes were extracted from the statistical blocks. Additionally, for data analysis and factor analysis, Kruskal-Wallis Test in the environment of SPSS and kernel density estimation (KDE) and Moran's I tests in the GIS environment were employed. FINDINGS The results of the present study revealed that the distribution of poverty (Z score = 48.916518, p value = 0.000000) and affluent strata (Z score = 14.345028, p value = 0.000000) followed clustered patterns (p < 0.01). Additionally, the results indicated that the spatial distribution pattern of the upper gastrointestinal cancer was clustered (Z score = 1.896996, p value = 0.007828), whereas the spatial distribution pattern of the lower gastrointestinal cancer was inclined to a randomized clustered pattern (Z score = 1.338121, p value = 0.000857) (p < 0.01). Finally, seven main hot spots were identified from the poverty stratum in Kermanshah, which perfectly overlapped the hot spots of upper gastrointestinal cancer. Similarly, four main hot spots were identified from the affluent stratum in Kermanshah, which overlapped the hot spots of lower gastrointestinal cancer. The results of the Kruskal-Wallis Test demonstrated that the poverty and affluent strata were significantly different from each other in terms of gastrointestinal cancer: upper gastrointestinal cancer (p < 0.05 and X2=10.064) and lower gastrointestinal cancer (p < 0.05 and X2=10.253). CONCLUSION The results of the present study showed that the ratio of patients with lower gastrointestinal cancers was higher than the incidence of upper gastrointestinal cancers over the 5-year period under study. Moreover, in Kermanshah Metropolis, there was a significant difference between the upper gastrointestinal cancer in the poverty stratum and the lower gastrointestinal cancer in the affluent stratum. Hence, it is suggested that GIS be applied as a tool for identifying the patterns of effective factors of this type of cancer in each social class, and it is recommended that some effective policies be presented and adopted by health managers according to the role and importance of socioeconomic, environmental, and nutritional factors in the poverty and affluent strata of society, and people at risk be equipped with preventive training programs in this respect.
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Reshadat S, Tohidi M, Ghasemi M, Zangeneh A, Saeidi S, Teimouri R, Yigitcanlar T. Interrelationship between underprivileged neighborhoods and health promotion lifestyles: insights from Kermanshah, Iran. J Public Health (Oxf) 2019. [DOI: 10.1007/s10389-019-01086-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
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Measures of spatial accessibility to health centers: investigating urban and rural disparities in Kermanshah, Iran. J Public Health (Oxf) 2018. [DOI: 10.1007/s10389-018-0966-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/16/2022] Open
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Sun W, Xue L, Xie X. Spatial-temporal distribution of dengue and climate characteristics for two clusters in Sri Lanka from 2012 to 2016. Sci Rep 2017; 7:12884. [PMID: 29018222 PMCID: PMC5635062 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-017-13163-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 18] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/08/2017] [Accepted: 09/19/2017] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
Dengue is a vector-borne disease causing high morbidity and mortality in tropical and subtropical countries. Urbanization, globalization, and lack of effective mosquito control have lead to dramatically increased frequency and magnitude of dengue epidemic in the past 40 years. The virus and the mosquito vectors keep expanding geographically in the tropical regions of the world. Using the hot spot analysis and the spatial-temporal clustering method, we investigated the spatial-temporal distribution of dengue in Sri Lanka from 2012 to 2016 to identify spatial-temporal clusters and elucidate the association of climatic factors with dengue incidence. We detected two important spatial-temporal clusters in Sri Lanka. Dengue incidences were predicted by combining historical dengue incidence data with climate data, and hot and cold spots were forecasted using the predicted dengue incidences to identify areas at high risks. Targeting the hot spots during outbreaks instead of all the regions can save resources and time for public health authorities. Our study helps better understand how climatic factors impact spatial and temporal spread of dengue virus. Hot spot prediction helps public health authorities forecast future high risk areas and direct control measures to minimize cost on health, time, and economy.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wei Sun
- Harbin Engineering University, Department of Mathematics, Harbin, 150001, China
| | - Ling Xue
- Harbin Engineering University, Department of Mathematics, Harbin, 150001, China.
- University of Manitoba, Department of Mathematics, Winnipeg, R3T 2M8, Canada.
| | - Xiaoxue Xie
- Harbin Engineering University, Department of Mathematics, Harbin, 150001, China
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