Value of E-PASS models for predicting postoperative morbidity and mortality in resection of perihilar cholangiocarcinoma and gallbladder carcinoma

Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress (E-PASS) Predicts Postoperative Major Complications After Hepato-Pancreato Biliary Surgery in the Elderly

BACKGROUND

As society ages, an increasing number of elderly patients require hepato-pancreato-biliary (HPB) surgery. We investigated the risk factors for complications in elderly patients undergoing HPB surgery using surgical risk scoring models.

METHODS

We retrospectively investigated 184 elderly patients (≥ 65 years old) who underwent HPB surgery, including the liver, pancreas, bile duct, and/or gallbladder resection, with exemption to simple cholecystectomy between January 2017 and December 2019. The surgical risk scoring models used included the Estimation of Physiological Ability and Surgical Stress (E-PASS), Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM), and Geriatric 8 (G8). We evaluated the correlations between the scores and severe complications. Complications were classified as severe (Clavien-Dindo classification [C-D] ≥ III) or non-severe (C-D ≤ II).

RESULTS

Complications occurred in 78 patients (24 C-D ≥ III, 54 C-D ≤ II). Preoperative risk score (PRS), surgical stress score (SSS), and comprehensive risk score (CRS) were significantly higher in patients with C-D ≥ IIIa than in those with C-D ≤ II. Multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that PRS (P = 0.01) and SSS (P = 0.04) were independent predictive factors for severe complications. However, the POSSUM and G8 models showed no significant correlations to severe complications.

CONCLUSION

E-PASS is a useful model for predicting complications in elderly patients undergoing HPB surgery.

Safety and benefits of major hepatectomy with extrahepatic bile duct resection in older perihilar cholangiocarcinoma patients

PURPOSE

To evaluate the safety and benefits of major hepatectomy with extrahepatic bile duct resection in older perihilar cholangiocarcinoma patients and to identify possible predictors of surgical mortality.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed the data of 102 consecutive patients who underwent major hepatectomy with extrahepatic bile duct resection for perihilar cholangiocarcinoma in our institution between 2004 and 2021. The patients were included and divided into two groups: older patients ≥ 75 years and non-older patients < 75 years. Patient characteristics, preoperative nutritional and operative risk scores, intraoperative details, postoperative outcomes, and long-term prognosis were compared between the groups. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to identify the predictors of 90-day mortality after major hepatectomy with extrahepatic bile duct resection.

RESULTS

Significant differences were identified for some preoperative surgical risk scores, but not for nutritional scores. Older patients had a higher morbidity rate of respiratory complications (p = 0.016), but there were no significant differences in overall (p = 0.735) or disease-specific survival (p = 0.858). A high Dasari's score was identified as an independent predictive factor of 90-day mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Major hepatectomy with extrahepatic bile duct resection can be performed for optimally selected older and younger patients with perihilar cholangiocarcinoma, resulting in a good prognosis. However, indications for extended surgery should be recognized. Dasari's preoperative risk score may be a good predictor of 90-day mortality.

Cumulative damage effect of jaundice may be an effective predictor of complications in patients undergoing radical resection of Bismuth type II or above hilar cholangiocarcinoma

Background

There is currently no preoperative risk assessment system for predicting complications after radical resection of hilar cholangiocarcinoma. This study examined the association between the cumulative damage effect of jaundice (CDEJ) and the complications of radical resection of Bismuth II or above hilar cholangiocarcinoma.

Methods

Patients who underwent radical resection of hilar cholangiocarcinoma at the Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, West China Hospital of Sichuan University, from April 2010 to January 2018 were retrospectively included.

Results

Of the 171 included patients, 115 (67.3%) patients experienced complications. Multivariate analysis found that CDEJ [odds ratio (OR) =1.0001, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) =1.000027–1.000239, P=0.014], cholangitis (OR =9.638, 95% CI =2.683–34.622, P=0.001), and preoperative bilirubin (OR =1.006, 95% CI =1.002–1.01, P=0.004) were independently associated with the incidence of complications. CDEJ (OR =1.0001, 95% CI =1.00001–1.00019, P=0.024), age (OR =1.083, 95% CI =1.029–1.14, P=0.002), preoperative bilirubin (OR =1.083, 95% CI =1.029–1.14, P=0.002), and future liver remnant (FLR) (OR =0.963, 95% CI =0.941–0.986, P=0.002) were independently associated with hepatic failure. To predict the incidence of complications, the following criteria were used. For the CDEJ cutoff of 2,151, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.69 (95% CI =0.615–0.759), the sensitivity was 66.09%, and the specificity was 69.64%. For the preoperative bilirubin cutoff of 111.7 µmol/L, the AUC was 0.65 (95% CI =0.573–0.721), the sensitivity was 84.35%, and the specificity was 42.86%. To predict hepatic failure, the following criteria were used. For the CDEJ cutoff of 3,931.95, the AUC was 0.605 (95% CI =0.582–0.679), the sensitivity was 51.28%, and the specificity was 70.45%. For the preoperative bilirubin cutoff of 115.9 µmol/L, the AUC was 0.638 (95% CI =0.561–0.71), the sensitivity was 92.31%, and the specificity was 32.58%. For the FLR cutoff of 50, the AUC was 0.638 (95% CI =0.515–0.667), the sensitivity was 48.72%, and the specificity was 78.79%.

Conclusions

CDEJ was independently associated with complications and can moderately predict complications after surgical resection of hilar cholangiocarcinoma.

Combining E-PASS model and disease specific risk factors to predict severe morbidity after liver and bile duct resection for perihilar cholangiocarcinoma

BACKGROUND

Estimation of physiologic ability and surgical stress system (E-PASS) has been shown to be effective in predicting morbidity after surgery for perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (PHCC). Nevertheless, E-PASS does not include an assessment of the disease specific risk factors. The aim of the study was to estimate the combined impact of E-PASS and specific preoperative factors on major morbidity for PHCC patients.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of a prospectively collected data was performed. Severe morbidity according to complication comprehensive index was defined as ≥40 points. A value of comprehensive risk score (CRS) ≥1 was taken as critical.

RESULTS

Multivariate analysis of perioperative data from 122 patients revealed significant impact of five factors (CRS ≥1, future liver remnant volume <50%, T4 stage, moderate and severe cholangitis, INR) on the risk of severe morbidity after resection. The AUC for the combination of these factors was classified as good predictive value (0.810, 95% CI 0.729-0.891) and poor predictive value (0.673, 95% CI 0.573-0.773) for CRS alone (p = 0.040).

CONCLUSION

A combination of E-PASS with disease specific risk factors is a reliable predictive model for major morbidity for patients undergoing radical surgery for PHCC.

Systematic review of perioperative mortality risk prediction models for adults undergoing inpatient non-cardiac surgery

BACKGROUND

Risk prediction tools can be used in the perioperative setting to identify high-risk patients who may benefit from increased surveillance and monitoring in the postoperative period, to aid shared decision-making, and to benchmark risk-adjusted hospital performance. We evaluated perioperative risk prediction tools relevant to an Australian context.

METHODS

A systematic review of perioperative mortality risk prediction tools used for adults undergoing inpatient noncardiac surgery, published between 2011 and 2019 (following an earlier systematic review). We searched Medline via OVID using medical subject headings consistent with the three main areas of risk, surgery and mortality/morbidity. A similar search was conducted in Embase. Tools predicting morbidity but not mortality were excluded, as were those predicting a composite outcome that did not report predictive performance for mortality separately. Tools were also excluded if they were specifically designed for use in cardiac or other highly specialized surgery, emergency surgery, paediatrics or elderly patients.

RESULTS

Literature search identified 2568 studies for screening, of which 19 studies identified 21 risk prediction tools for inclusion.

CONCLUSION

Four tools are candidates for adapting in the Australian context, including the Surgical Mortality Probability Model (SMPM), Preoperative Score to Predict Postoperative Mortality (POSPOM), Surgical Outcome Risk Tool (SORT) and NZRISK. SORT has similar predictive performance to POSPOM, using only six variables instead of 17, contains all variables of the SMPM, and the original model developed in the UK has already been successfully adapted in New Zealand as NZRISK. Collecting the SORT and NZRISK variables in a national surgical outcomes study in Australia would present an opportunity to simultaneously investigate three of our four shortlisted models and to develop a locally valid perioperative mortality risk prediction model with high predictive performance.

Assessment of postoperative complications using E-PASS and APACHE II in patients undergoing oral and maxillofacial surgery

Background

The prediction of postoperative complications is important for oral and maxillofacial surgeons. We herein aimed to evaluate the efficacy of the Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress (E-PASS) and Acute Physiology, Age, and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II scoring systems to predict postoperative complications in patients undergoing oral and maxillofacial surgery.

Methods

Thirty patients (22 males, 8 females; mean age: 65.1 ± 12.9 years) who underwent major oral surgeries and stayed in the intensive care unit for postoperative management were enrolled in this study. Postoperative complications were discriminated according to the necessity of the therapeutic intervention by the Medical Department, i.e. according to the Clavien–Dingo classification. E-PASS and APACHE II scores as well as laboratory test values were compared between patients with/without postoperative complications.

Results

Postoperative complications were developed in seven patients. The comprehensive risk score (CRS: 1.13 ± 0.24) and APACHE II score (13.0 ± 2.58) were significantly higher in patients with postoperative complications than in those without ones (p < 0.01, p < 0.05, respectively). The CRS showed an appropriate discriminatory power for predicting postoperative complications (area under the curve: 0.814). Furthermore, a correlation was detected between APACHE II scores and postoperative data until C-reactive protein levels decreased to < 1.0 mg/L (r = 0.43, p < 0.05).

Conclusion

The E-PASS and APACHE II scoring systems were both shown to be useful to predict postoperative complications after oral and maxillofacial surgery.

Estimation of physiologic ability and surgical stress (E-PASS) scoring system could provide preoperative advice on whether to undergo laparoscopic surgery for colorectal cancer patients with a high physiological risk

Laparoscopic colorectal surgery had been widely used for colorectal cancer patient and showed a favorable outcome on the postoperative morbidity rate. We attempted to evaluate physiological status of patients by mean of Estimation of physiologic ability and surgical stress (E-PASS) system and to analyze the difference variation of postoperative morbidity rate of open and laparoscopic colorectal cancer surgery in patients with different physiological status.In total 550 colorectal cancer patients who underwent surgery treatment were included. E-PASS and some conventional scoring systems were reviewed to examine their mortality prediction ability. The preoperative risk score (PRS) in the E-PASS system was used to evaluate the physiological status of patients. The difference of postoperative morbidity rate between open and laparoscopic colorectal cancer surgeries was analyzed respectively in patients with different physiological status.E-PASS had better prediction ability than other conventional scoring systems in colorectal cancer surgeries. Postoperative morbidities were developed in 143 patients. The parameters in the E-PASS system had positive correlations with postoperative morbidity. The overall postoperative morbidity rate of laparoscopic surgeries was lower than open surgeries (19.61% and 28.46%), but the postoperative morbidity rate of laparoscopic surgeries increased more significantly than in open surgery as PRS increased. When PRS was more than 0.7, the postoperative morbidity rate of laparoscopic surgeries would exceed the postoperative morbidity rate of open surgeries.The E-PASS system was capable to evaluate the physiological and surgical risk of colorectal cancer surgery. PRS could assist preoperative decision-making on the surgical method. Colorectal cancer patients who were assessed with a low physiological risk by PRS would be safe to undergo laparoscopic surgery. On the contrary, surgeons should make decisions prudently on the operation method for patient with a high physiological risk.