Whipple-specific complications result in prolonged length of stay not accounted for in ACS-NSQIP Surgical Risk Calculator

Impact of hypoalbuminemia on outcomes following pancreaticoduodenectomy: a NSQIP retrospective cohort analysis of 25,848 patients

BACKGROUND

Efforts to preoperatively risk stratify and optimize patients before pancreaticoduodenectomy continue to improve outcomes. This study aims to determine the impact of hypoalbuminemia on outcomes following pancreaticoduodenectomy and outline optimal hypoalbuminemia cut-off values in this population.

METHODS

The ACS-NSQIP (2016-2021) database was used to extract patients who underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy, comparing those with hypoalbuminemia (< 3.0 g/L) to those with normal albumin. Demographics and 30-day outcomes were compared. Multivariable modeling evaluated factors including hypoalbuminemia to characterize their independent effect on serious complications, and mortality. Optimal albumin cut-offs for serious complications and mortality were evaluated using receiver-operating characteristic curves.

RESULTS

We evaluated 25,848 pancreaticoduodenectomy patients with 2712 (10.5%) having preoperative hypoalbuminemia. Patients with hypoalbuminemia were older (68.2 vs. 65.1; p < 0.0001), and were significantly more likely to be ASA class 4 or higher (13.9% vs. 6.7%; p < 0.0001). Patients with hypoalbuminemia had significantly more 30-day complications and after controlling for comorbidities hypoalbuminemia remained a significant independent factor associated with 30-day serious complications (OR 1.80, p < 0.0001) but not mortality (OR 1.37, p = 0.152).

CONCLUSIONS

Hypoalbuminemia plays a significant role in 30-day morbidity following pancreaticoduodenectomy. Preoperative albumin may serve as a useful marker for risk stratification and optimization.

Assessing the effectiveness of ACS surgical risk calculator versus P-POSSUM in predicting mortality and morbidity for major hepatobiliary surgery: An observational study

Risk assessment is difficult yet would provide valuable data for both the surgeons and the patients in major hepatobiliary surgeries. An ideal risk calculator should improve workflow through efficient, timely, and accurate risk stratification. The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS-NSQIP) surgical risk calculator (SRC) and Portsmouth Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and Morbidity (P-POSSUM) are surgical risk stratification tools used to assess postoperative morbidity. In this study, preoperative data from 300 patients undergoing major hepatobiliary surgeries performed at a single tertiary university hospital were retrospectively collected from electronic patient records and entered into the ACS-SRC and P-POSSUM systems, and the resulting risk scores were calculated and recorded accordingly. The ACS-NSQIP-M1 (C-statistics = 0.725) and M2 (C-statistics = 0.791) models showed better morbidity discrimination ability than P-POSSUM-M1 (C-statistics = 0.672) model. The P-POSSUM-M2 (C-statistics = 0.806) model showed better differentiation success in morbidity than other models. The ACS-NSQIP-M1 (C-statistics = 0.888) and M2 (C-statistics = 0.956) models showed better mortality discrimination than P-POSSUM-M1 (C-statistics = 0.776) model. The P-POSSUM-M2 (C-statistics = 0.948) model showed better mortality differentiation success than the ACS-NSQIP-M1 and P-POSSUM-M1 models. The use of ACS-SRC and P-POSSUM calculators for major hepatobiliary surgeries offers quantitative data to assess risks for both the surgeon and the patient. Integrating these calculators into preoperative evaluation practices can enhance decision-making processes for patients. The results of the statistical analyses indicated that the P-POSSUM-M2 model for morbidity and the ACS-NSQIP-M2 model for mortality exhibited superior overall performance.

Potential Role for Observation in Small Solid Pseudopapillary Neoplasm (SPN)

BACKGROUND

Solid pseudopapillary neoplasms (SPN) are rare tumors of the pancreas, typically affecting young women. Resection is the mainstay of treatment but is associated with significant morbidity and potential mortality. We explore the idea that small, localized SPN could be safely observed.

METHODS

This retrospective review of the Pancreas National Cancer Database from 2004 to 2018 identified SPN via histology code 8452.

RESULTS

A total of 994 SPNs were identified. Mean age was 36.8 ± 0.5 years, 84.9% (n = 844) were female, and most had a Charlson-Deyo Comorbidity Coefficient (CDCC) of 0-1 (96.6%, n = 960). Patients were most often staged clinically as cT2 (69.5%, n = 457) followed by cT3 (17.6%, n = 116), cT1 (11.2%, n = 74), and cT4 (1.7%, n = 11). Clinical lymph node and distant metastasis rates were 3.0 and 4.0%, respectively. Surgical resection was performed in 96.6% of patients (n = 960), most commonly partial pancreatectomy (44.3%) followed by pancreatoduodenectomy (31.3%) and total pancreatectomy (8.1%). In patients clinically staged as node (N0) and distant metastasis (M0) negative, occult pathologic lymph node involvement was found in 0% (n = 28) of patients with stage cT1 and 0.5% (n = 185) of patients with cT2 disease. The risk of occult nodal metastasis significantly increased to 8.9% (n = 61) for patients with cT3 disease. The risk further increased to 50% (n = 2) in patients with cT4 disease.

CONCLUSIONS

Herein, the specificity of excluding nodal involvement clinically is 99.5% in tumors ≤ 4 cm and 100% in tumors ≤ 2 cm. Therefore, there may be a role for close observation in patients with cT1N0 lesions to mitigate morbidity from major pancreatic resection.

A Cohort Study of an Enhanced Recovery Pathway for Pancreatic Surgery at a Community Hospital

BACKGROUND

Enhanced recovery after surgery (ERAS) pathways have been shown to improve pancreatic surgery outcomes, though feasibility in a community hospital remain unclear. We hypothesized that an ERAS protocol would reduce hospital length of stay (LOS) without increased morbidity.

METHODS

An ERAS pathway was initiated for patients undergoing pancreatic surgery at a community cancer center and compared to a historical cohort. The primary outcome was hospital LOS. Secondary outcomes included 30-day readmission rates, comprehensive complication index (CCI^®), textbook outcomes (TO), and mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 144 patients were included, with 63 patients in the ERAS group and 81 in the control group. The mean LOS decreased significantly in the ERAS group (6.85 [± 4.8]) vs 9.96 [±6.8] days, P = .001), without an increase in 30-day admission rates or CCI.

CONCLUSIONS

Implementation of an ERAS protocol in a community setting reduced LOS without a corresponding increase in readmission rates or morbidity.

High-risk liver patients are not associated with adverse events following pancreaticoduodenectomy

INTRODUCTION

Pancreaticoduodenectomy performed with underlying hepatic disease has been reported to have increased adverse events postoperatively. This study aimed to further evaluate that association.

METHODS

Retrospective review of the American College of Surgeons (ACS) National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) main and targeted pancreatectomy registries for 2014-2016. High-risk liver patients were defined by MELD scores, received neoadjuvant chemotherapy, and had hepatosteatosis; two separate subgroups of MELD ≥9 and ≥ 11. High-risk liver patients were then compared to control cases via propensity score matching.

RESULTS

There were 156 and 132 cases that met the high-risk liver criteria for the MELD cutoffs of ≥9 and ≥ 11 respectively. Propensity score matching left 2527 cases for final adjusted analysis. On both univariate and multivariate analysis high-risk liver patients were not associated with increased adverse events following Whipple resection. Lack of association with increased adverse events held for both the ≥9 and ≥ 11 MELD score cohorts.

CONCLUSION

High-risk liver patients defined by MELD scores, neoadjuvant chemotherapy utilization, and hepatosteatosis were not associated with any increased incidence of adverse events following pancreaticoduodenectomy. Patients with underlying high-risk liver disease in this study did not appear to pose as a contraindication for oncologic resection of pancreatic adenocarcinoma.

The efficacy of the American College of Surgeons Surgical Risk Calculator in the prediction of postoperative complications in oncogeriatric patients after curative surgery for abdominal tumors

BACKGROUND

The American College of Surgeons (ACS) has developed a Surgical Risk Calculator (SRC) to predict postoperative surgical complications. No studies have reported the performance of the ACS-SRC in oncogeriatric patients. Our objective was to evaluate the predictive performance of the ACS-SRC in these patients, treated with curative surgery for an abdominal malignancy.

METHODS

This is a retrospective study including 136 patients who underwent elective abdominal oncological surgery, between 2017 and 2019, at our institution. Postoperative complications were classified according to the ACS-SRC, and its predictive performance was analyzed by assessing discrimination and calibration and using receiver operating characteristics and area under the curve (AUC).

RESULTS

Discrimination was adequate with AUC of 0.7113 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.062-1.202, p = 0.0001; Brier 0.198) for serious complications and 0.7230 (95% CI: 1.101-1.756, p = 0.0057; Brier 0.099) for pneumonia; and poor for sepsis, surgical site infection (SSI), and urinary tract infection (UTI) with AUCs of 0.6636 (95% CI: 1.016-1.353, p = 0.0299; Brier 0.142), 0.6167 (95% CI: 1.003-1.266, p = 0.0450; Brier 0.175), and 0.6598 (95% CI: 1.069-2.145, p = 0.0195; Brier 0.082), respectively.

CONCLUSION

The ACS-SRC is an adequate predictor for serious complications and pneumonia in oncogeriatric patients treated surgically for abdominal cancer. However, the predictive power of the calculator appears to be low for sepsis, UTI, and SSI.

Counting the cost: financial implications of complications following pancreaticoduodenectomy

BACKGROUND

Morbidity after pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) has been reported to be about 30-53%. These complications can double hospital costs. We sought to explore the financial implications of complications after PD in a large institutional database.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of patients undergoing PD from 2010-2017 was performed. Costs for index hospitalization were divided into categories: operating room, postoperative ward, radiology and interventional radiology. Complications were categorized according to the Clavien-Dindo classification. Univariable and mutivariable analysis were performed.

RESULTS

Median cost of index admission for 997 patients who underwent PD was $23,704 (range $10,988-$528,531). Patients with major complications incurred significantly greater median costs compared to those without ($40,005 vs $21,306, p < 0.001). Patients with postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) grade A, B and C had progressively increasing costs ($32,164, $50,264 and $102,013, p < 0.001). On multivariable analysis ileus/delayed gastric emptying, respiratory failure, clinically significant POPF, thromboembolic complications, reoperation, duration of surgery >240 minutes and male sex were associated with significantly increased costs.

CONCLUSION

Complications after PD significantly increase hospital costs. This study identifies the major contributors towards increased cost post-PD. Initiatives that focus on prevention of complications could reduce associated costs and ease financial burden on patients and healthcare organizations.

Evaluating the Inaccuracy of the National Surgical Quality Improvement Project Surgical Risk Calculator in Plastic Surgery: A Meta-analysis of Short-Term Predicted Complications

BACKGROUND

Preoperative surgical risk assessment is a major component of clinical decision making. The ability to provide accurate, individualized risk estimates has become critical because of growing emphasis on quality metrics benchmarks. The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Project (NSQIP) Surgical Risk Calculator (SRC) was designed to quantify patient-specific risk across various surgeries. Its applicability to plastic surgery is unclear, however, with multiple studies reporting inaccuracies among certain patient populations. This study uses meta-analysis to evaluate the NSQIP SRC's ability to predict complications among patients having plastic surgery.

METHODS

OVID MEDLINE and PubMed were searched for all studies evaluating the predictive accuracy of the NSQIP SRC in plastic surgery, including oncologic reconstruction, ventral hernia repair, and body contouring. Only studies directly comparing SCR predicted to observed complication rates were included. The primary measure of SRC prediction accuracy, area under the curve (AUC), was assessed for each complication via DerSimonian and Laird random-effects analytic model. The I2 statistic, indicating heterogeneity, was judged low (I2 < 50%) or borderline/unacceptably high (I2 > 50%). All analyses were conducted in StataSE 16.1 (StataCorp LP, College Station, Tex).

RESULTS

Ten of the 296 studies screened met criteria for inclusion (2416 patients). Studies were classified as follows: (head and neck: n = 5, breast: n = 1, extremity: n = 1), open ventral hernia repair (n = 2), and panniculectomy (n = 1). Predictive accuracy was poor for medical and surgical complications (medical: pulmonary AUC = 0.67 [0.48-0.87], cardiac AUC = 0.66 [0.20-0.99], venous thromboembolism AUC = 0.55 [0.47-0.63]), (surgical: surgical site infection AUC = 0.55 [0.46-0.63], reoperation AUC = 0.54 [0.49-0.58], serious complication AUC = 0.58 [0.43-0.73], and any complication AUC = 0.60 [0.57-0.64]). Although mortality was accurately predicted in 2 studies (AUC = 0.87 [0.54-0.99]), heterogeneity was high with I2 = 68%. Otherwise, heterogeneity was minimal (I2 = 0%) or acceptably low (I2 < 50%) for all other outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

The NSQIP Universal SRC, aimed at offering individualized quantifiable risk estimates for surgical complications, consistently demonstrated poor risk discrimination in this plastic surgery-focused meta-analysis. The limitations of the SRC are perhaps most pronounced where complex, multidisciplinary reconstructions are needed. Future efforts should identify targets for improving SRC reliability to better counsel patients in the perioperative setting and guide appropriate healthcare resource allocation.

Evaluation of complications after laparoscopic and open appendectomy by the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program surgical risk calculator

BACKGROUND

This study aims to evaluate the predictive level of the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS-NSQIP) risk calculator for post-appendectomy complications.

METHODS

A total of 292 patients who were hospitalized for general appendectomy were included in the study. The age range of the patients was 18-76 years (mean: 35.3±13.6 years). The mean body mass index was 25.8±4.6. Twenty data points were entered into the ACS-NSQIP surgical risk calculator (SRC), which yielded the 17 most common complications and the average LOHS. Compli-cations encountered in 30-day follow-up were categorized according to the complications predicted by SRC. The actual and observed complication rates and LOHS were compared RESULTS: Post-operative complications developed in 13.4% of the patients, surgical site infection in 11.3%, serious complications in 3.1%, and readmission in 2.1%. Serious complications included pneumonia, sepsis, cardiac complications, and renal failure. The mean LOHS was 1.91±1.64 days (range: 1-14 days). No thromboembolism or mortality was observed. When the comparison of compli-cations using SRC was made with the ROC curve, the predictive value of SRC was 84.2% for any complication, 86.7% for serious complication, 47.6% for surgical site infection, 95.9% for renal failure, 99.0% for resurgery, and 88.3% for sepsis.

CONCLUSION

Although it is rare to see complications after simple appendectomy, it is known that complication rates increase sig-nificantly in the elderly, the obese, and those with comorbidities. Tools such as SRC will be beneficial for patients with these risk factors.

Management of Traumatic Duodenal Injuries: A Report from a Single-Center

Purpose: Traumatic duodenal injury is uncommon and due to its difficult diagnosis and accessibility there is an increased risk of mortality and morbidity.Methods: Electronic medical records of a single center were reviewed retrospectively from March 2008 to December 2020 and a total of 7 cases of traumatic duodenal injury were managed by surgical exploration. The site of duodenal perforation, injury mechanisms, operation method, and postoperative outcomes were assessed.Results: The mean age was 55.72 years (range, 34-78), and there were 5 men in the study. The most common mechanism was in-car traffic accident (4 cases), and 1 case each of pedestrian accident, accident during work, and self-injured stab wound. The most common site of injury was between the 3rd and 4th portion (3 cases), followed by the bulb and 1st portion (2 cases), and 2nd portion (2 cases). Segmental resection of the duodenum and primary anastomosis was performed in the 3rd and 4th portion perforation. In cases of 1st and 2nd portion, injury was managed by primary repair or pylorus preserving pancreaticoduodenectomy. Complications developed in 4 patients, and the most common complication was a problem with the wound; wound seromas developed in 4 cases, entero-cutaneous fistula in 1, and biliary complications in 2 cases. Two patients suffered from intraperitoneal abscess or fluid collection managed by percutaneous drainage. The mean duration of hospital stay was 34 days, and postoperative mortality did not develop.Conclusion: Favorable clinical outcomes were observed in patients with traumatic duodenal injury managed by various surgical approaches.

A Propensity-Matched Analysis of the Postoperative Venous Thromboembolism Rate After Pancreatoduodenectomy Based on Operative Approach

BACKGROUND

The use of minimally invasive approaches for pancreatoduodenectomy has increased in recent years, but the risk of postoperative VTE is undefined. We aimed to compare venous thromboembolism (VTE) rates after open and minimally invasive pancreatoduodenectomy using an administrative dataset.

METHODS

Patients who underwent pancreatoduodenectomy within the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program targeted pancreatectomy database (2016-2018) were identified. VTE was compared between patients who underwent open or minimally invasive pancreatoduodenectomy directly and after propensity score matching 1:1 for demographics, comorbidities, and peri-/intra-operative factors.

RESULTS

A total of 12,227 patients underwent pancreatoduodenectomy during the study period (open: n = 11,217; minimally invasive: n = 1010). Before matching, the VTE rate was higher among patients who underwent minimally invasive pancreatoduodenectomy (5.2% vs. 3.8%, p = 0.033), and minimally invasive resection was independently associated with VTE (OR = 1.46, 95%CI = 1.09-2.06). After matching, there were 916 patients per group without differences in demographics or comorbidities. Patients who underwent minimally invasive pancreatoduodenectomy had longer median operative times (422 vs. 348 min). The VTE rate remained higher following minimally invasive pancreatoduodenectomy after matching (5.1% vs. 2.9%, p = 0.018), mainly driven by a higher DVT rate (3.9% vs. 1.7%, p = 0.005).

CONCLUSIONS

Minimally invasive pancreatoduodenectomy is associated with a higher postoperative VTE rate compared to open pancreatoduodenectomy.

Length of Stay After Joint Arthroplasty is Less Than Predicted Using Two Risk Calculators

BACKGROUND

Predicting the length of stay (LOS) after total joint arthroplasty (TJA) has become more important with their recent removal from inpatient-only designation. The American College of Surgeons (ACS) National Surgical Quality Improvement Program surgical risk calculator and the CMS' diagnosis-related group (DRG) calculator are two common LOS predictors. The aim of our study was to determine how our actual LOS compared with those predicted by both the ACS and DRG.

METHODS

99 consecutive TJA (49 hips and 50 knee procedures) were reviewed in Medicare-eligible patients from four fellowship-trained arthroplasty surgeons. Predicted LOS was calculated using the DRG and ACS risk calculators for each patient using demographics, medical histories, and comorbidities. LOS was compared between the predicted and the actual LOS for both total hip arthroplasty (THA) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA) using paired t-tests.

RESULTS

Actual LOS was shorter in the THA group vs the TKA group (1.29 days vs 1.46 days, P < .05). The actual LOS of patients at our institution was significantly shorter than both DRG and ACS predictions for both THA and TKA (P < .05). In both the THA and TKA patients, the actual LOS (1.29 and 1.46 day) was significantly shorter than the DRG-predicted LOS (2.15 and 2.15 days) which was significantly shorter than the ACS-predicted LOS (2.9 and 3.14 days).

CONCLUSION

We found the actual LOS was significantly shorter than that predicted by both the DRG and ACS risk calculators. Current risk calculators may not be accurate for contemporary fast-track protocols and newer tools should be developed.

Predicted versus actual complications in Australian women undergoing post-mastectomy breast reconstruction: a retrospective cohort study using the BRA Score tool

INTRODUCTION

The Breast Reconstruction Risk Assessment (BRA) Score tool is a risk calculator developed to predict the risk of complications in individual patients undergoing breast reconstruction. It was developed in a North American population exclusively undergoing immediate breast reconstruction. This study sought to assess the predictions of the BRA Score tool against the measured outcomes of surgery for an Australian public hospital population, including both immediate and delayed reconstructions.

METHOD

This was a retrospective cohort study of data from women at a single Australian public teaching hospital unit. Data from the Flinders Breast Reconstruction Database was retrieved and compared to BRA Scores calculated for each patient. Receiver operating curve area under the curve analysis was performed as well as Brier scores to compare predicted versus observed complications.

RESULTS

BRA Score predictions were reasonable or good (C-statistic >0.7, Brier score <0.09) for the complications of overall surgical complications, surgical site infection (SSI) and seroma at 30 days, and similarly accurate for prediction of the same complications for implant reconstructions at 12 months. There were similar findings between delayed and immediate reconstructions.

CONCLUSION

The BRA Score risk calculator is valid to detect some risks in both patients undergoing immediate and delayed breast reconstruction in an Australian public hospital setting. SSI is the best predicted complication and is well-predicted across both autologous and prosthetic reconstruction types.

Development of a Novel Pancreatoduodenectomy-Specific Risk Calculator: an Analysis of 10,000 Patients

BACKGROUND

Pancreatoduodenectomy (PD) is often performed in frail patients and is associated with significant morbidity. The five-factor modified frailty index (mFI-5) has been utilized to predict adverse postoperative outcomes, but has not been tested in PD. We aimed to develop risk tools to generate and predict 30-day outcomes after PD and compare their performance with the mFI-5. Risk tools were then used to generate a PD-specific calculator.

METHODS

Elective PDs from the 2014-2016 ACS NSQIP® Procedure Targeted Pancreatectomy PUFs were identified. Multivariable logistic regression models were constructed to predict postoperative mortality, any complication, serious complication, clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF), and discharge not-to-home. Predictive accuracy was evaluated through repeated stratified tenfold cross-validation and compared to the mFI-5.

RESULTS

Nine thousand eight hundred sixty-seven PDs were captured. Nine risk factors were retained: sex, age, BMI, DM, HTN, ASA classification, pancreatic duct size, gland texture, and adenocarcinoma. Cross-validated C-indices ranged from 0.49 to 0.61 for the mFI-5 and 0.63 to 0.75 for our risk models. The best-performing model was for discharge not-to-home (C = 0.75), and the model delivering the largest increase in predictive accuracy was for CR-POPF (C_mFI-5/Model = 0.49/0.70). A user-friendly risk calculator was created predicting the five outcomes of interest.

CONCLUSION

We have created a PD-specific risk calculator that outperforms the mFI-5. This calculator may serve as a useful adjunct in shared decision-making for patients and surgeons.

Diagnostic Accuracy of MRI for Differentiation of Benign and Malignant Pancreatic Cystic Lesions Compared to CT and Endoscopic Ultrasound: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Differentiation of benign and malignant pancreatic cystic lesions on MRI, computed tomography (CT), and endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) is critical for determining management.

PURPOSE

To perform a systematic review evaluating the diagnostic accuracy of MRI for diagnosing malignant pancreatic cystic lesions, and to compare the accuracy of MRI to CT and EUS.

STUDY TYPE

Systematic review and meta-analysis.

DATA SOURCES

MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Web of Science, and Scopus were searched until February 2020 for studies reporting MRI accuracy for assessing pancreatic cystic lesions.

FIELD STRENGTH

1.5T or 3.0T.

ASSESSMENT

Methodologic and outcome data were extracted by two reviewers (AU and MA, 2 years of experience each). All studies of pancreatic cystic lesions on MRI were identified. Studies with incomplete MRI technique were excluded. Risk of bias was assessed using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS)-2 tool.

STATISTICAL TESTS

Sensitivity/specificity was pooled using bivariate random-effects meta-analysis with 95% confidence intervals (95%CI). Pairwise-comparison of MRI to CT and EUS was performed. The impact of gadolinium-based contrast agents, mucinous lesions, and risk of bias were explored using meta-regression.

RESULTS

MRI pooled sensitivity was 76% (95%CI 67% to 84%) and specificity was 80% (95%CI 74% to 85%) for distinguishing benign and malignant lesions. MRI and CT had similar sensitivity (P = 0.822) and specificity (P = 0.096), but MRI was more specific than EUS (80% vs. 75%, P < 0.05). Studies including only contrast-enhanced MRI were more sensitive than those including unenhanced exams (P < 0.05). MRI sensitivity and specificity did not differ for mucinous lesions (P = 0.537 and P = 0.384, respectively) or for studies at risk of bias (P = 0.789 and P = 0.791, respectively).

DATA CONCLUSION

MRI and CT demonstrate comparable accuracy for diagnosing malignant pancreatic cystic lesions. EUS is less specific than MRI, which suggests that, in some cases, management should be guided by MRI findings rather than EUS.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

3 TECHNICAL EFFICACY STAGE: 2.

Assessing the Performance of the De Novo Postoperative Stress Urinary Incontinence Calculator

OBJECTIVE

The aim of the study was to determine the performance of a previously published stress urinary incontinence (SUI) risk calculator in women undergoing minimally invasive or transvaginal apical suspensions.

METHODS

Using a database of stress-continent women who underwent minimally invasive or transvaginal apical suspensions, we calculated 2 prediction risks for development of SUI within 12 months based on inclusion of a "prophylactic" midurethral sling at the time of prolapse surgery. Observed subjective and objective continence status was abstracted from medical records. Regression models were created for the outcome of de novo SUI to generate receiver operating curves. Concordance (c) indices were estimated for the overall and procedure subgroups to determine the calculator's ability to discriminate between SUI outcomes.

RESULTS

Analyses included 502 women. De novo SUI was observed in 23.5% of women. The mean ± SD calculated risk of de novo SUI if a sling was performed was 18.9% ± 13.9 at 12 months compared with 36.4% ± 8.3 without sling. The calculator's discriminative ability for those with a planned sling was moderate (c-index = 0.55, P = 0.037). The calculator failed to discriminate continence outcomes when a sling was not planned in the overall group (c-index = 0.50, P = 0.799) and individual apical procedures.

CONCLUSIONS

The SUI risk calculator is significantly limited in its ability to predict de novo SUI in our population of women planning minimally invasive apical suspensions. Refinements to the calculator model are needed to improve its utility in clinical practice.

Risk-adjustment models in patients undergoing head and neck surgery with reconstruction

BACKGROUND

With the current focus on value-based outcomes and reimbursement models, perioperative risk adjustment is essential. Specialty surgical outcomes are not well predicted by the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP); the Head and Neck-Reconstructive Surgery NSQIP was created as a specialty-specific platform for patients undergoing head and neck surgery with flap reconstruction. This study aims to investigate risk prediction models in these patients.

METHODS

The Head and Neck-Reconstructive Surgery NSQIP collected data on patients undergoing head and neck surgery with flap reconstruction from August 1, 2012 to October 20, 2016. Multivariable logistic regression models were created for 9 outcomes (postoperative ventilator dependence, pneumonia, superficial recipient surgical site infection, presence of tracheostomy/nasoenteric (NE)/gastrostomy/gastrojejunostomy(G/GJ) tube 30 days postoperatively, conversion from NE to G/GJ tube, unplanned return to the operating room, length of stay > 7 days). External validation was completed with a more contemporary cohort.

RESULTS

A total of 1095 patients were included in the modelling cohort and 407 in the validation cohort. Models performed well predicting tracheostomy, NE, G/GJ tube presence at 30 days postoperatively and conversion from NE to G/GJ tube (c-indices = 0.75-0.91). Models for postoperative pneumonia, superficial recipient surgical site infection, ventilator dependence > 48 h, and length of stay > 7 days were fair (concordance [c]-indices = 0.63-0.69). The predictive model for unplanned return to the operating room was poor (c-index = 0.58).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Reliable and discriminant risk prediction models were able to be created for postoperative outcomes using the specialty-specific Head and Neck-Reconstructive Surgery Specific NSQIP.

Assessment of the American College of Surgeons surgical risk calculator of outcomes after hepatectomy for liver tumors: Results from a cohort of 950 patients

BACKGROUND

The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program's (ACS-NSQIP) calculator has been endorsed to counsel patients regarding complications. The aim of this study was to assess its ability to predict outcomes after hepatectomy.

METHODS

Outcomes generated by the ACS-NSQIP were recorded in a consecutive cohort of patients. By using established classifications of complications, post-hepatectomy insufficiency and bile leak, the calculator was tested by the comparison of expected versus observed rates of events. The performance of the calculator was tested by using c-statistic and Brier score.

RESULTS

950 patients who underwent hepatectomy between January 2014 and June 2019 were included. Predicted rates were significantly lower than actual rates: the mean ACS-NSQIP morbidity was 17.97% ± 8.4 vs. actual 37.01% ± 0.56 (P < 0.001); the mean ACS-NSQIP mortality was 0.91% ± 1.48 vs. actual 1.76% ± 0.11 (P < 0.001). Predicted length of stay (LOS) was significantly shorter: mean ACS-NSQIP was 5.81 ± 1.66 days vs. actual 10.91 ± 4.6 days (P < 0.001). Post-hepatectomy liver insufficiency and bile leak were recorded in 6.8% and 11.9% of patients, respectively. These events were not expressed by the calculator. C-statistic and Brier scores showed low performance of the calculator.

CONCLUSION

The calculator underestimates the risks of complications, mortality and LOS after hepatectomy. Refinements of the ACS-NSQIP model that account for organ-specific risks should be considered.

The modern trauma pancreaticoduodenectomy for penetrating trauma: a propensity-matched analysis

Trauma pancreaticoduodenectomy (TP) remains a challenging operation with morbidity and mortality rates as high as 80% and 50%. Many trauma surgeons consider it surgical dogma to avoid performing a TP during the index operation for patients with severe pancreatic or duodenal injuries. However, there is no modern analysis evaluating this belief. Therefore, we hypothesized no difference in risk of mortality between patients with severe pancreatic or duodenal injury undergoing a TP for penetrating trauma to propensity-matched controls undergoing laparotomy without TP. The Trauma Quality Improvement Program (2010–2016) was queried for adults with severe penetrating pancreatic or duodenal injuries undergoing laparotomy. A 1:2 propensity-matching including demographics/comorbidities, injury severity score, vitals on admission, Glasgow Coma Scale and concomitant injuries for laparotomy with or without TP was performed. Risk of mortality was reported using a univariable logistic regression model. Of 2182 patients with severe pancreatic or duodenal injuries undergoing laparotomy, 54 (2.5%) underwent TP and 2128 (97.5%) underwent laparotomy without TP. There were no differences in propensity-matching characteristics. Patients undergoing TP had a similar mortality rate (20.0% vs. 28.7%, p = 0.302) but a longer length of stay (LOS) (27.5 vs. 16.5 days, p = 0.017). The TP group had a similar associated risk of mortality (OR = 0.62, p = 0.302) but higher risk of major complications (OR 3.44, CI 1.35–17.47, p = 0.015). In appropriately selected penetrating trauma patients with severe pancreatic/duodenal injuries, TP is associated with a similar risk of mortality compared to laparotomy without TP. However, TP patients did have an increased associated risk of major complications and longer LOS.

Assessment of the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Calculator in Predicting Outcomes and Length of Stay After Ivor Lewis Esophagectomy: A Single-Center Experience

BACKGROUND

The American College of Surgeons (ACS) National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) calculator is a useful tool used by physicians to better inform patients on the surgical risk of postoperative complications. It makes use of the NSQIP database to derive the chance for several adverse outcomes to occur postoperatively given certain patient's factors. The aim of this study was to assess its applicability in a series of patients undergoing an Ivor Lewis esophagectomy.

METHODS

Data from 100 consecutive patients who underwent an Ivor Lewis esophagectomy between September 2013 and November 2017 at our institution were reviewed. Each patient was assessed using the ACS NSQIP surgical risk calculator. Actual events in this group were compared with their particular NSQIP-assessed risk. Logistic regression models were used to compare surgical risk calculator estimates binary outcomes such as incidence of postoperative complications such as cardiac events, renal events, surgical site infection, and death. Mixed linear model was used for length of stay (LOS) duration versus observed LOS. C-statistic was for predictive accuracy each binary outcome and intraclass correlation was used for LOS.

RESULTS

C-statistic values were higher than the cutoff (0.75) for surgical site infection and death. The ACS NSQIP risk calculator was poorly predictive of other reported outcomes by the calculator such as cardiac or renal complications. Corroboration between observed LOS and predicted LOS was weak (8 d versus 11 d, respectively, intraclass coefficient 0.04).

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggests that the risk calculator is useful for identifying risk of death or surgical site infection but poor at discriminating likelihood of other reported outcomes occurring, such as pneumonia, acute renal failure and cardiac complications for patients who underwent an Ivor Lewis esophagectomy. Estimations for procedure-specific complications for esophagectomy may need reevaluated.

Clinically Meaningful Laboratory Protocols Reduce Hospital Charges Based on Institutional and ACS-NSQIP® Risk Calculators in Hepatopancreatobiliary Surgery

Postoperative laboratory testing is an underrecognized but substantial contributor to health-care costs. We aimed to develop and validate a clinically meaningful laboratory (CML) protocol with individual risk stratification using generalizable and institution-specific predictive analytics to reduce laboratory testing and maximize cost savings for low-risk patients. An institutionally based risk model was developed for pancreaticoduodenectomy and hepatectomy, and an ACS-NSQIP®–based model was developed for distal pancreatectomy. Patients were stratified in each model to the CML by individual risk of major complications, readmission, or death. Clinical outcomes and estimated cost savings were compared with those of a historical cohort with standard of care. Over 34 months, 394 patients stratified to the CML for pancreaticoduodenectomy or hepatectomy saved an estimated $803,391 (44.4%). Over 13 months, 52 patients stratified to the CML for distal pancreatectomy saved an estimated $81,259 (30.5%). Clinical outcomes for 30-day major complications, readmission, and mortality were unchanged after implementation of either model. Predictive analytics can target low-risk patients to reduce laboratory testing and improve cost savings, regardless of whether an institutional or a generalized risk model is implemented. Broader application is important in patient-centered health care and should transition from predictive to prescriptive analytics to guide individual care in real time.

Predicting Post-operative Complications in Crohn's Disease: an Appraisal of Clinical Scoring Systems and the NSQIP Surgical Risk Calculator

BACKGROUND

Surgery is common in patients with Crohn's disease and can contribute significantly to patient morbidity. The National Surgical Quality Improvement Program surgical risk calculator (NSQIP-SRC) that is currently utilized to predict surgical risk does not take Crohn's disease into account and, as a result, seems to underestimate risk in this patient population. This study aimed to evaluate the accuracy of the NSQIP-SRC in Crohn's disease patients and to evaluate the utility of disease severity scores in predicting surgical risk.

METHODS

Between 2011 and 2017, there were 176 surgical cases involving Crohn's disease patients. Demographic data and 30-day surgical outcomes were collected. Disease severity scores including Harvey Bradshaw Index (HBI), Crohn's Disease Activity Index (CDAI), Simple Endoscopic Score for Crohn's Disease (SES-CD), and NSQIP-SRC risk percentages were calculated.

RESULTS

Patients in remission based on HBI had a complication rate of 8.57% (n = 3), while those with mild or moderate-severe disease had rates of 33.33% (n = 11) and 38.46% (n = 20) respectively (p = 0.0045). In multivariable analysis, those with mild (OR; 8.37, 95% CI; 1.64, 42.78; p = 0.011) or moderate-severe (OR; 11.69, 95% CI; 2.42, 56.46; p = 0.002) disease had increased odds of complication compared to remission. Complication rate was not associated with NSQIP-SRC percent risk of any complication.

CONCLUSION

NSQIP-SRC does not accurately predict risk in patients with CD undergoing surgery. Higher disease activity based on HBI is associated with increased odds of complication and may prove to be more predictive of surgical complication in the Crohn's patient population.

Braden scale for pressure ulcer risk predicts rehabilitation placement after pancreatic resection

BACKGROUND

Patients undergoing pancreatic resection frequently require rehabilitation facilities after hospital discharge. We evaluated the predictive role of validated markers of frailty on rehabilitation facility placement to identify patients who may require this service.

METHODS

Single-center retrospective cohort study of patients who underwent pancreatic resection from 2010 to 2015. 90-day morbidity and mortality were calculated. Postoperative validated markers of frailty (Activities of Daily Living scale, Braden scale [assesses pressure ulcer risk, lower scores = higher risk] and Morse fall scale) were evaluated via multivariate regression to identify predictors of discharge to rehabilitation facility.

RESULTS

470 patients with complete data were included. Mean age was 62 and 49.2% were male. Postoperative median length of stay (LOS) was 8 (IQR 7-10). 92 (19.66%) patients were discharged to rehabilitation facilities and 138 (29.49%) patients were readmitted within 90 days. On multivariate analysis, age, sex, LOS > 8 days, inpatient Comprehensive Complication Index (CCI) and initial Braden scale were predictive of rehabilitation placement.

CONCLUSION

A marker of frailty routinely collected daily by nursing staff, the Braden scale, is available to help surgeons predict the need for postoperative rehabilitation placement after pancreatic resection. Engaging discharge planning services for at-risk patients may help prevent delayed hospital discharge and should be further evaluated.

Enhancing Patient Outcomes while Containing Costs after Complex Abdominal Operation: A Randomized Controlled Trial of the Whipple Accelerated Recovery Pathway

BACKGROUND

This study was designed to determine whether a standardized recovery pathway could reduce post-pancreaticoduodenectomy hospital length of stay to 5 days without increasing complication or readmission rates.

STUDY DESIGN

Pancreaticoduodenectomy patients (high-risk patients excluded) were enrolled in an IRB-approved, prospective, randomized controlled trial (NCT02517268) comparing a 5-day Whipple accelerated recovery pathway (WARP) with our traditional 7-day pathway (control). Whipple accelerated recovery pathway interventions included early discharge planning, shortened ICU stay, modified postoperative dietary and drain management algorithm, rigorous physical therapy with in-hospital gym visit, standardized rectal suppository administration, and close telehealth follow-up post discharge. The trial was powered to detect an increase in postoperative day 5 discharge from 10% to 30% (80% power, α = 0.05, 2-sided Fisher's exact test, target accrual: 142 patients).

RESULTS

Seventy-six patients (37 WARP, 39 control) were randomized from June 2015 to September 2017. A planned interim analysis was conducted at 50% trial accrual resulting in mandatory early stoppage, as the predefined efficacy end point was met. Demographic variables between groups were similar. The WARP significantly increased the number of patients discharged to home by postoperative day 5 compared with controls (75.7% vs 12.8%; p < 0.001) without increasing readmission rates (8.1% vs 10.3%; p = 1.0). Overall complication rates did not differ between groups (29.7% vs 43.6%; p = 0.24), but the WARP significantly reduced the time from operation to adjuvant therapy initiation (51 days vs 66 days; p = 0.005) and hospital cost ($26,563 vs $31,845; p = 0.011).

CONCLUSIONS

The WARP can safely reduce hospital length of stay, time to adjuvant therapy, and cost in selected pancreaticoduodenectomy patients without increasing readmission risk.

Predicting Postoperative Complications after Acute Care Surgery: How Accurate is the ACS NSQIP Surgical Risk Calculator?

The ACS NSQIP Surgical Risk Calculator (SRC) is an evidence-based clinical tool commonly used for evaluating postoperative risk. The goal of this study was to validate SRC-predicted complications by comparing them with observed outcomes in the acute care surgical setting. In this study, pre- and postoperative data from 1693 acute care surgeries (hernia repair, enterolysis, intestinal incision/excision and enterectomy, gastrectomy, debridement, colectomy, appendectomy, cholecystectomy, gastrorrhaphy, and incision and drainage of soft tissue, breast abscesses, and removal of foreign bodies) performed at a Level I trauma center over a five-year time period were abstracted. Predictions for any and serious complications were based on SRC were compared with observed outcomes using various measures of diagnostic. When evaluated as one group, the SRC had good discriminative power for predicting any and serious complications after acute care surgeries (Area Under the Curve (AUC) 0.79, 0.81). In addition, the SRC met Brier score requirements for an informative model overall. However, the predictive accuracy of the SRC varied for various procedures within the acute care patient population. For serious complications, the diagnostic measures ranged from an AUC of 0.61 and negative likelihood ratio of 0.716 for incision & drainage soft tissue to AUC of 0.91 and negative likelihood ratio of 0.064 for gastrorrhaphy. Length of stay was significantly underestimated by the SRC overall (8.56 days, P < 0.01) and for individual procedures. The SRC performs well at predicting complications after acute care surgeries overall; however, there is great variability in performance between procedure types. Further refinements in risk stratification may improve SRC predictions.

A simplified scoring system for the prediction of pancreatoduodenectomy's complications: An observational study

To assess the efficiency of several previous scoring systems in the prediction of postoperative complications of pancreatoduodenectomy (PCPD) and to explore a new simplified scoring system for PCPD prediction.All 183 consecutive patients scheduled for PD from 2010 to 2017 in the Second Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University were collected retrospectively. The area under the curve (AUC) for the prediction of PCPD was calculated for POSSUM, E-PASS, APACHE-II, and APACHE-III, which were used to test the efficiency of PCPD prediction. The independent risk factors included in the new scoring system were determined by univariate analysis and a logistic regression model. Next, the prediction efficiency was validated.The results of the univariate analysis showed that such variables as male sex, weight, WBC, serum sodium, arterial pH, postoperative 24 hours urine output, and operation time were influence factors for postoperative complications (P <.05). Arterial pH, serum sodium, postoperative 24 hours urine output, and WBC were independent risk factors of postoperative complications based on the logistic regression analysis (P <.05). The AUC of the novel scoring system for PCPD prediction was 85.4%.The proposed scoring system might be a more effective tool for predicting PCPD compared with previous multipurpose scoring systems.

Standardization of perioperative care facilitates safe discharge by postoperative day five after pancreaticoduodenectomy

INTRODUCTION

Pancreaticoduodenectomy is a complex surgical procedure associated with high morbidity and prolonged length of stay. Enhanced recovery after surgery principles have reduced complications rate and length of stay for multiple types of operations. We hypothesized that implementation of a standardized perioperative care pathway would facilitate safe discharge by five days after pancreaticoduodenectomy.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study of patients undergoing pancreaticoduodenectomy 18 months prior to and 18 months following implementation of a perioperative care pathway at a quaternary center performing high volume pancreatic surgery.

RESULTS

A total of 145 patients underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy (mean age 63 ± 10 years, 52% female), 81 before and 64 following pathway implementation, and the groups were similar in terms of preoperative comorbidities. The percentage of patients discharged within 5 days of surgery increased from 36% to 64% following pathway implementation (p = 0.001), with no observed differences in post-operative serious adverse events (p = 0.34), pancreatic fistula grade B or C (p = 0.28 and p = 0.27 respectively), or delayed gastric emptying (p = 0.46). Multivariate regression analysis showed length of stay ≤5 days three times more likely after pathway implementation. Rates of readmission within 30 days (20% pre- vs. 22% post-pathway (p = 0.75)) and 90 days (27% pre- vs. 36% post-pathway (p = 0.27)) were unchanged after pathway implementation, and were no different between patients discharged before or after day 5 at both 30 days (19% ≤5 days vs. 23% ≥ 6 days (p = 0.68)) and 90 days (32% ≤5 days vs. 30% ≥ 6 days (p = 0.81)).

CONCLUSIONS

Standardizing perioperative care via enhanced recovery protocols for patients undergoing pancreaticoduodenectomy facilitates safe discharge by post-operative day five.

Beyond 30 Days: A Risk Calculator for Longer Term Outcomes of Prosthetic Breast Reconstruction

Background

Despite growing use of surgical risk calculators, many are limited to 30-day outcomes due to the constraints of their underlying datasets. Because complications of breast reconstruction can occur well beyond 30 days after surgery, we endeavored to expand the Breast Reconstruction Risk Assessment (BRA) Score to prediction of 1-year complications after primary prosthetic breast reconstruction.

Methods

We examined our prospective intrainstitutional database of prosthetic breast reconstructions from 2004 to 2015. Patients without 1-year follow-up were excluded. Pertinent patient variables include those enumerated in past iterations of the BRA Score. Outcomes of interest include seroma, surgical site infection (SSI), implant exposure, and explantation occurring within 1 year of tissue expander placement. Risk calculators were developed for each outcome using multivariate logistic regression models and made available online at www.BRAScore.org. Internal validity was assessed using C-statistic, Hosmer-Lemeshow test, and Brier score.

Results

Nine-hundred three patients met inclusion criteria. Within 1-year, 3.0% of patients experienced seroma, 6.9% infection, 7.1% implant exposure, and 13.2% explantation. Thirty-day, 90-day, and 180-day windows captured 17.6%, 39.5%, and 59.7% of explantations, respectively. One-year risk calculators were developed for each complication of interest, and all demonstrated good internal validity: C-statistics for the 5 models ranged from 0.674 to 0.739, Hosmer-Lemeshow tests were uniformly nonsignificant, and Brier scores ranged from 0.027 to 0.154.

Conclusions

Clinically significant complications of prosthetic breast reconstruction usually occur beyond the 30-day window following tissue expander placement. To better reflect long-term patient experiences, the BRA Score was enhanced with individualized risk models that predicted 1-year complications after prosthetic reconstruction (BRA Score XL). All models performed as well as, if not better than, the original BRA Score models and other popular risk calculators such as the CHA₂DS₂VASc Score. The patient-friendly BRA Score XL risk calculator is available at www.brascore.org to facilitate operative decision-making and heighten the informed consent process for patients.

Independent Predictors of Increased Operative Time and Hospital Length of Stay Are Consistent Across Different Surgical Approaches to Pancreatoduodenectomy

BACKGROUND

While minimally invasive approaches are increasingly being utilized for pancreatoduodenectomy (PD), factors associated with prolonged operative time (OpTime) and hospital length of stay (LOS) remain poorly defined, and it is unclear whether these factors are consistent across surgical approaches.

METHODS

The ACS-NSQIP targeted pancreatectomy database from 2014 to 2016 was used to identify all patients who underwent open (OPD), laparoscopic (LPD), or robotic (RPD) pancreatoduodenectomy. Multivariable linear regression analyses were used to evaluate predictors of OpTime and LOS, as well as quantify the changes observed relative to each surgical approach.

RESULTS

Among 10,970 patients, PD procedure types varied: 9963 (92%) open, 418 (4%) laparoscopic, and 409 (4%) robotic. LOS was longer for the open and laparoscopic approaches (11 vs. 11 vs. 10 days, P = 0.0068), whereas OpTime was shortest for OPD (366 vs. 426 vs. 435 min, P < 0.0001). Independent predictors of a prolonged OpTime were ASA class ≥ 3 (P = 0.0002), preoperative XRT (P < 0.0001), pancreatic duct < 3 mm (P = 0.0001), T stage ≥ 3 (P = 0.0108), and vascular resection (P < 0.0001) for OPD; T stage ≥ 3 (P = 0.0510) and vascular resection (P = 0.0062) for LPD; and malignancy (P = 0.0460) and conversion to laparotomy (P = 0.0001) for RPD. Independent predictors of increased LOS were age ≥ 65 years (P = 0.0002), ASA class ≥ 3 (P = 0.0012), hypoalbuminemia (P < 0.0001), and preoperative blood transfusion (P < 0.0001) for OPD as well as an OpTime > 370 min (all p < 0.05) and specific postoperative complications (all p < 0.05) for all surgical approaches.

CONCLUSIONS

Perioperative risk factors for prolonged OpTime and hospital LOS are relatively consistent across open, laparoscopic, and robotic approaches to PD. Particular attention to these factors may help identify opportunities to improve perioperative quality, enhance patient satisfaction, and ensure an efficient allocation of hospital resources.

Evaluating the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program-Pediatric Surgical Risk Calculator for Pediatric Craniosynostosis Surgery

BACKGROUND

The American College of Surgeons' National Surgical Quality Improvement Program-Pediatric (NSQIP-P) risk calculator was developed based on national data. There have been no studies assessing the risk calculator's performance in pediatric neurosurgery. The authors aimed to evaluate the predictions from the risk calculator compared to our single institution experience in craniosynostosis surgery.

METHODS

Outcomes from craniosynostosis surgeries performed between 2012 and 2016 at our academic pediatric hospital were evaluated using the NSQIP-P risk calculator. Descriptive statistics were performed comparing predicted 30-day postoperative events and clinically observed outcomes. The performance of the calculator was evaluated using the Brier score and receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC).

RESULTS

A total of 202 craniosynostosis surgeries were included. Median age was 0.74 years (range 0.15-6.32); 66% were males. Blood transfusion occurred in 162/202 patients (80%). The following clinical characteristics were statistically correlated with surgical complications: American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status classification >1 (P < 0.001), central nervous system abnormality (P < 0.001), syndromic craniosynostosis (P = 0.001), and redo operations (P = 0.002). Postoperative events occurred in <3%, including hardware breakage, tracheal-cartilaginous sleeve associated with critical airway, and surgical site infection. The calculator performed well in predicting any complication (Brier = 0.067, ROC = 73.9%), and for pneumonia (Brier = 0.0049, ROC 99%). The calculator predicted a low rate of cardiac complications, venous thromboembolism, renal failure, reintubation, and death; the observed rate of these complications was 0.

CONCLUSIONS

The risk calculator demonstrated reasonable ability to predict the low number of perioperative complications in patients undergoing craniosynostosis surgery with a composite complications outcome. Efforts to improve the calculator may include further stratification based on procedure-specific risk factors.

Evaluating Mastectomy Skin Flap Necrosis in the Extended Breast Reconstruction Risk Assessment Score for 1-Year Prediction of Prosthetic Reconstruction Outcomes

BACKGROUND

Rates of mastectomy for breast cancer treatment and immediate reconstruction continue to rise. With increasing scrutiny on outcomes and patient satisfaction, there is an impetus for providers to be more deliberate in appropriate patient selection for breast reconstruction. The Breast Reconstruction Risk Assessment (BRA) Score was developed for prediction of complications after primary prosthetic breast reconstruction, focusing on calculating risk estimations for a variety of complications based on individual patient demographic and perioperative characteristics. In this study, we evaluated mastectomy skin flap necrosis (MSFN) as a function of patient characteristics to validate the BRA Score.

STUDY DESIGN

We examined our prospective intra-institutional database of prosthetic breast reconstructions from 2004 to 2015. The end point of interest was 1-year occurrence of MSFN after stage I tissue expander placement.

RESULTS

Nine hundred and three patients were included; 50% underwent bilateral reconstruction. Median follow-up was 23 months. Mean 1-year complication rates were as follows: MSFN 12.4%, seroma 3.0%, infection 6.9%, dehiscence/exposure 7.1%, and explantation 13.2%. Statistically significantly higher rates of MSFN were found in older patients, smokers, patients with postoperative infections, patients with hypertension, and patients who used aspirin. Neoadjuvant or adjuvant chemotherapy and radiation, diabetes, and seroma formation did not have a statistically significant impact on necrosis rates.

CONCLUSIONS

The BRA Score was expanded to estimate complication risk after tissue expander placement up to 1 year postoperatively. The risk of MSFN as calculated by the BRA Score: Extended Length is consistent with published studies demonstrating increased risk with specific comorbidities, and further validates expansion of the BRA score risk calculator.

Evaluating the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement project risk calculator: results from the U.S. Extrahepatic Biliary Malignancy Consortium

BACKGROUND

The objective of this study is to evaluate use of the American College of Surgeons (ACS) National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) online risk calculator for estimating common outcomes after operations for gallbladder cancer and extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma.

METHODS

Subjects from the United States Extrahepatic Biliary Malignancy Consortium (USE-BMC) who underwent operation between January 1, 2000 and December 31, 2014 at 10 academic medical centers were included in this study. Calculator estimates of risk were compared to actual outcomes.

RESULTS

The majority of patients underwent partial or major hepatectomy, Whipple procedures or extrahepatic bile duct resection. For the entire cohort, c-statistics for surgical site infection (0.635), reoperation (0.680) and readmission (0.565) were less than 0.7. The c-statistic for death was 0.740. For all outcomes the actual proportion of patients experiencing an event was much higher than the median predicted risk of that event. Similarly, the group of patients who experienced an outcome did have higher median predicted risk than those who did not.

CONCLUSIONS

The ACS NSQIP risk calculator is easy to use but requires further modifications to more accurately estimate outcomes for some patient populations and operations for which validation studies show suboptimal performance.

Predicting Postoperative Complications for Acute Care Surgery Patients Using the ACS NSQIP Surgical Risk Calculator

The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) risk calculator has been used to assist surgeons in predicting the risk of postoperative complications. This study aims to determine if the risk calculator accurately predicts complications in acute care surgical patients undergoing laparotomy. A retrospective review was performed on all patients on the acute care surgery service at a tertiary hospital who underwent laparotomy between 2011 and 2012. The preoperative risk factors were used to calculate the estimated risks of postoperative complications in both the original ACS NSQIP calculator and updated calculator (June 2016). The predicted rate of complications was then compared with the actual rate of complications. Ninety-five patients were included. Both risk calculators accurately predicted the risk of pneumonia, cardiac complications, urinary tract infections, venous thromboembolism, renal failure, unplanned returns to operating room, discharge to nursing facility, and mortality. Both calculators underestimated serious complications (26% vs 39%), overall complications (32.4% vs 45.3%), surgical site infections (9.3% vs 20%), and length of stay (9.7 days versus 13.1 days). When patients with prolonged hospitalization were excluded, the updated calculator accurately predicted length of stay. The ACS NSQIP risk calculator underestimates the overall risk of complications, surgical infections, and length of stay. The updated calculator accurately predicts length of stay for patients <30 days. The acute care surgical population represents a high-risk population with an increased rate of complications. This should be taken into account when using the risk calculator to predict postoperative risk in this population.