Nomogram to predict non-home discharge following pancreaticoduodenectomy in a national cohort of patients

Robotic versus open pancreaticoduodenectomy in octogenarians: a comparative propensity score analysis of perioperative outcomes

BACKGROUND

Compared to open pancreaticoduodenectomies (OPD), the robotic (RPD) approach decreases the rate of complication and the length of stay (LOS). However, it remains unknown if these benefits persist in octogenarians, who are at higher risk for perioperative morbidity and mortality.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of the ACS-NSQIP database was performed to identify patients aged 80 years or older who underwent PD for pancreatic adenocarcinoma between 2015-2021. Patients who underwent RPD or OPD were compared using inversed probability weighting of the propensity score. Outcomes assessed include operative time, LOS, non-home discharge, major complications, unplanned readmission, return to the operating room, mortality, and clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula.

RESULTS

Of 30,751 patients, 1720 were octogenarians. One thousand six hundred twenty-five patients (94 %) underwent OPD, and 95 (6 %) underwent RPD. RPD was significantly associated with a reduced incidence of major complications (32.6 % vs. 45.6 %; p < 0.01) and a lower rate of non-home discharge (24.7 % vs. 34.3%; p < 0.05). However, RPD was associated with a longer operative time (438 min vs. 342 min; p < 0.0001). There was no difference in other assessed outcomes.

CONCLUSION

RPD may reduce major postoperative complications and non-home discharges compared to the open approach for octogenarians.

Predictors of non-home discharge after pancreatoduodenectomy in patients aged 80 years and above

BACKGROUND

Pancreatic cancer has the highest growth in incidence among patients aged ≥80 years. Discharge destination after hospitalization is increasingly recognized as a marker of return to baseline functional status. Our aim was to identify the preoperative and intraoperative predictors of non-home discharge in those aged 80 or older.

METHODS

The ACS-NSQIP pancreas-targeted database was queried to identify patients aged ≥80 years who underwent pancreatoduodenectomy (PD) from 2014 to 2020. Home discharge (HD) versus non-HD cohorts were compared using univariate logistic regression. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify predictors of non-HD.

RESULTS

Non-HD was over twice as likely to occur in patients aged ≥80 years than in those aged 65-79 years (p < 0.01). Comorbidity factors significantly associated with non-HD in patients aged ≥80 years included COPD, hypertension, HF, lower preoperative albumin, but not obesity. Non-comorbidity factors included older age, female gender, ASA III-IV, preoperative dependent functional status, and transfer origin before PD.

CONCLUSION

Individuals ≥80 years have possibly delayed or lower rate of return to baseline functional status following PD compared to those aged 65-79 years. Predictors of non-HD can be identified to facilitate preoperative counseling and discharge planning, thus enhancing care workflow efficiency.

Systematic review of prediction models for postacute care destination decision-making

OBJECTIVE

This article reports a systematic review of studies containing development and validation of models predicting postacute care destination after adult inpatient hospitalization, summarizes clinical populations and variables, evaluates model performance, assesses risk of bias and applicability, and makes recommendations to reduce bias in future models.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A systematic literature review was conducted following PRISMA guidelines and the Cochrane Prognosis Methods Group criteria. Online databases were searched in June 2020 to identify all published studies in this area. Data were extracted based on the CHARMS checklist, and studies were evaluated based on predictor variables, validation, performance in validation, risk of bias, and applicability using the Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST) tool.

RESULTS

The final sample contained 28 articles with 35 models for evaluation. Models focused on surgical (22), medical (5), or both (8) populations. Eighteen models were internally validated, 10 were externally validated, and 7 models underwent both types. Model performance varied within and across populations. Most models used retrospective data, the median number of predictors was 8.5, and most models demonstrated risk of bias.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION

Prediction modeling studies for postacute care destinations are becoming more prolific in the literature, but model development and validation strategies are inconsistent, and performance is variable. Most models are developed using regression, but machine learning methods are increasing in frequency. Future studies should ensure the rigorous variable selection and follow TRIPOD guidelines. Only 14% of the models have been tested or implemented beyond original studies, so translation into practice requires further investigation.

Preoperative Nomogram Predicts Non-home Discharge in Patients Undergoing Pancreatoduodenectomy

BACKGROUND

In patients undergoing pancreatoduodenectomy, non-home discharge is common and often results in an unnecessary delay in hospital discharge. This study aimed to develop and validate a preoperative prediction model to identify patients with a high likelihood of non-home discharge following pancreatoduodenectomy.

METHODS

Patients undergoing pancreatoduodenectomy from 2013 to 2018 were identified using an institutional database. Patients were categorized according to discharge location (home vs. non-home). Preoperative risk factors, including social determinants of health associated with non-home discharge, were identified using Pearson's chi-squared test and then included in a multiple logistic regression model. A training cohort composed of 80% of the sampled patients was used to create the prediction model, and validation carried out using the remaining 20%. Statistical significance was defined as P < 0.05.

RESULTS

Seven hundred sixty-six pancreatoduodenectomy patients met the study criteria for inclusion in the analysis (non-home, 126; home, 640). Independent predictors of non-home discharge on multivariable analysis were age, marital status, mental health diagnosis, functional health status, dyspnea, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. The prediction model was then used to generate a nomogram to predict likelihood of non-home discharge. The training and validation cohorts demonstrated comparable performances with an identical area under the curve (0.81) and an accuracy of 84%.

CONCLUSION

A prediction model to reliably assess the likelihood of non-home discharge after pancreatoduodenectomy was developed and validated in the present study.

Evaluation of Factors Associated with, and Outcomes for Patients with Nonhome Discharge Destinations Following Carotid Endarterectomy

INTRODUCTION

Following a carotid endarterectomy (CEA) procedure, patients are discharged to their homes or other locations than home such as an acute care facility or skilled nursing facility based on their functional status and level of medical attention needed. Decision-making for discharge destination following a CEA to home or nonhome locations is important due to the differences in survival and postoperative complications. While primary outcomes such as mortality and occurrence of stroke following CEA have been extensively studied, there is a paucity of information characterizing outcomes of discharge destination and the factors associated. The purpose of this study was to explore the factors associated with discharge to nonhome destinations after CEA, and outcomes after discharge.

METHODS

Using the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS-NSQIP) database, we identified patients who underwent CEA from 2011 to 2018. Patients were divided into two groups based on their discharge destination (home versus nonhome). Univariate and multivariate analysis were performed for preoperative and intraoperative factors associated with different discharge destinations. Postoperative complications associated with discharge to nonhome destinations were analyzed and mortality after discharge from hospital was compared between the 2 groups.

RESULTS

A total of 25,094 patients met the criteria for inclusion in the study, of which 39% were females and 61% were males; median age was 71 years. Twenty four thousand one hundred twenty-five patients (93.13%) were discharged to home (Group I) and 1,779 (6.87%) were discharged to nonhome destinations (Group II). Following preoperative and intraoperative factors were associated with discharge to nonhome locations: older age, diabetes mellitus, functional independent status, transfer from other hospitals, symptomatic status, need for preoperative blood transfusions, severe ipsilateral carotid stenosis, elective CEA, need for intraoperative shunt and general anesthesia (all P< 0.05). Following postoperative complications had statistically significant association with discharge to nonhome destinations: postoperative blood transfusion, pneumonia, unplanned intubation, longer than 48 hours on ventilator, development of stroke, myocardial infarction, deep vein thrombosis, and sepsis (all P< 0.05). Mortality after discharge from hospital was 0.39% (n = 100). Mortality among those who were discharged to home was 0.29% vs. 1.63% for those who were discharged to nonhome locations (P< 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Majority of the patients after CEA are discharged back to their homes. This study identifies the factors which predispose patients discharged to locations, other than home. Patients who are not discharged home have higher mortality as compared to those who are discharged to their homes.

A novel preoperative risk score for nonhome discharge after elective thoracic endovascular aortic repair

BACKGROUND

Nonhome discharge (NHD) to a rehabilitation or skilled nursing facility after vascular surgery is poorly described despite its large impact on patients. Understanding postsurgical NHD risk is essential to providing adequate preoperative counseling and shared decision making, particularly for elective surgeries. We aimed to identify independent predictors of NHD after elective thoracic endovascular aortic repair (TEVAR) for thoracic aortic aneurysms (TAA) and to create a clinically useful preoperative risk score.

METHODS

Elective TEVAR cases for descending TAA were queried from the Society for Vascular Surgery Vascular Quality Initiative from 2014 to 2018. A risk score was created by splitting the dataset into two-thirds for model development and one-third for validation. A parsimonious stepwise hierarchical multivariable logistic regression controlling for hospital level variation was performed in the development dataset, and the beta-coefficients were used to assign points for a risk score. This score was then cross-validated and model performance assessed.

RESULTS

Overall, 1469 patients were included and 213 (14.5%) required NHD. At baseline, patients who required NHD were more likely to be ≥80 years old (35.2% vs 19.4%), female (58.7% vs 40.6%), functionally dependent (42.3% vs 24.0%), and anemic (46.5% vs 27.8%), and to have chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (41.3% vs 33.4%), congestive heart failure (18.8% vs 11.1%), and American Society of Anesthesiologists class ≥4 (51.6% vs 39.8%; all P < .05). Multivariable analysis in the development group identified independent predictors of NHD that were used to create an 18-point risk score. Patients were stratified into three groups based upon their risk score: low risk (0-7 points; n = 563) with an NHD rate of 4.3%, moderate risk (8-11 points; n = 701) with an NHD rate of 17.0%, and high risk (≥12 points; n = 205) with an NHD rate of 34.2%. The risk score had good predictive ability with a c-statistic of 0.75 for model development and a c-statistic of 0.72 in the validation dataset.

CONCLUSIONS

This novel risk score can predict NHD after TEVAR for TAA using characteristics that can be identified preoperatively. The use of this score may allow for improved risk assessment, preoperative counseling, and shared decision making.

Risk Factors for Nonhome Discharge After Esophagectomy for Neoplastic Disease

BACKGROUND

Esophagectomies are known to be technically challenging operations that create significant physiologic changes. These patients often require assisted care postoperatively that necessitates a nonhome discharge. The purpose of this study was to assess factors associated with nonhome discharge after esophagectomy for neoplastic disease.

METHODS

The 2016 to 2017 American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Esophagectomy database was queried to identify patients who underwent esophagectomy for a neoplasm. Patients were excluded if they died within 30 days of their operation, the index operation was considered emergent, or had missing data for the variables of interest. Multivariable analysis was performed to identify which factors were predictive of nonhome discharge.

RESULTS

One thousand seven patients were included. Of those, 121 (12.0%) had a nonhome discharge. Multivariable analysis showed that the following factors were associated with nonhome discharge: Modified Charlson comorbidity index (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 2.04; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.49-2.86), partially dependent preoperative functional status (aOR, 13.18; 95% CI, 1.07-315.67), urinary tract infection (aOR, 5.25; 95% CI, 1.32-20.41), and length of stay (aOR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.08-1.16).

CONCLUSIONS

We identified various factors associated with nonhome discharge. Early identification of patients who are at risk for nonhome discharge is important for early discharge planning, which may decrease nonmedical delays and healthcare costs.

Predictors of Non-home Discharge after Cytoreductive Surgery and Hyperthermic Intraperitoneal Chemotherapy

BACKGROUND

Using a national database of cytoreductive surgery and hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (CRS/HIPEC) recipients, we sought to determine risk factors for nonhome discharge (NHD) in a cohort of patients.

METHODS

Patients undergoing CRS/HIPEC at any one of 12 participating sites between 2000 and 2017 were identified. Univariate analysis was used to compare the characteristics, operative variables, and postoperative complications of patients discharged home and patients with NHD. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify independent risk factors of NHD.

RESULTS

The cohort included 1593 patients, of which 70 (4.4%) had an NHD. The median [range] peritoneal cancer index in our cohort was 14 [0-39]. Significant predictors of NHD identified in our regression analysis were advanced age (odds ratio [OR], 1.09; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.05-1.12; P < 0.001), an American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score of 4 (OR, 2.87; 95% CI, 1.21-6.83; P = 0.017), appendiceal histology (OR, 3.14; 95% CI 1.57-6.28; P = 0.001), smoking history (OR, 3.22; 95% CI, 1.70-6.12; P < 0.001), postoperative total parenteral nutrition (OR, 3.14; 95% CI, 1.70-5.81; P < 0.001), respiratory complications (OR, 7.40; 95% CI, 3.36-16.31; P < 0.001), wound site infections (OR, 3.12; 95% CI, 1.58-6.17; P = 0.001), preoperative hemoglobin (OR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.70-0.94; P = 0.006), and total number of complications (OR, 1.41; 95% CI, 1.16-1.73; P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Early identification of patients at high risk for NHD after CRS/HIPEC is key for preoperative and postoperative counseling and resource allocation, as well as minimizing hospital-acquired conditions and associated health care costs.

Discharge destination following pancreaticoduodenectomy: A NSQIP analysis of predictive factors and post-discharge outcomes

INTRODUCTION

Pancreaticoduodenectomy is a complex surgical procedure. The purpose of this study was to identify factors associated non-home discharge destination and to characterize outcomes after non-home discharge.

METHODS

10,719 pancreaticoduodenectomy cases contained in the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) Targeted Pancreatectomy dataset (years 2014-2016) were examined with univariate and multivariate logistic regression.

RESULTS

1336 patients (12.5%) were discharged to rehabilitation, skilled care, or acute care facilities. Preoperative factors significantly associated with non-home discharge on multivariate analysis were female gender, older age, elevated BMI, poor functional status or dyspnea, smoking, low albumin, COPD, and ascites. Intraoperative factors significantly associated with non-home discharge destination on multivariate analysis were longer operative time, open surgery, softer pancreatic texture, drain placement, and jejunostomy tube placement. A nomogram was generated for estimating probability of non-home discharge immediately after surgery.

CONCLUSION

Preoperative and intraoperative factors can be used to predict probability of non-home discharge immediately after completion of pancreaticoduodenectomy.