Hot spotting surgical patients undergoing hepatopancreatic procedures

Development and validation of risk stratification tool for prediction of increased dependence using preoperative frailty after hepatopancreatic surgery

BACKGROUND

Despite the known association between frailty and postoperative morbidity, the use of preoperative frailty in surgical practice remains limited. We sought to develop a risk tool to predict postoperative increase in functional dependence.

METHODS

Patients of ≥65 years in the National Surgical Quality Improvement Project database who had a primary hepatopancreatic surgery between 2015 and 2019 were used to identify predictors of increased dependence and development of a simplified tool to calculate the risk stratification score for increased discharge care level (https://ktsahara.shinyapps.io/care_discharge/).

RESULTS

Among 31,338 patients who underwent primary hepatopancreatic surgery, 4,259 (13.6%) had an increased level of care at discharge compared to their preadmission care. Patients with increased discharge care had a higher proportion of patients with a modified frailty index of at least 2 (n = 1496; 35.1%) compared with individuals with unchanged care (n = 6,760; 25.0%). In addition, 12.3% (n = 3,858) were discharged to a skilled nursing or rehabilitation facility. Of note, the odds of increased care at discharge were increased by 1.41 (95% confidence interval: 1.32-1.50), 1.11 (95% confidence interval :1.11-1.12), and 1.95 (95% confidence interval:1.86-2.04) times with every unit increase in modified frailty index, age beyond 65 years, and the number of in-hospital complications, respectively. Area under receiver operative curve for the parsimonious model used to develop the risk calculator was 0.7486 (95% confidence interval: 0.7405-0.7566) (all P < .001).

CONCLUSION

Approximately, 1 in 7 patients required an increased level of care at the time of discharge compared with their preadmission status. A simplified web-based risk tool can be used in clinical practice as a surgical decision aid in post-discharge planning after complex elective surgery.

Emergency Department Utilization Following Hepatopancreatic Surgery Among Medicare Beneficiaries

BACKGROUND

Care delivered in hospital-based emergency departments (ED) is a target for cost savings. ED utilization following hepatopancreatic surgery remains poorly defined. We sought to define the rate of ED utilization following liver and pancreatic resection, as well as to identify factors associated with ED visits post-discharge.

METHODS

The Medicare 100% Standard Analytic Files were used to identify Medicare beneficiaries who underwent hepatectomy or pancreatectomy between 2013 and 2017. Claims associated with ED services were identified using the relevant Revenue Center Codes. Patient characteristics and postoperative outcomes associated with ED care within 30 days of discharge were investigated.

RESULTS

Among 37,707 patients who underwent hepatopancreatic surgery, 10,323 (27.4%) had at least one ED visit within 30 days of discharge. Patients presenting to the ED were more likely to be male (OR 1.13, 95%CI 1.07-1.18). Patients undergoing a pancreatectomy (OR 1.39, 95%CI 1.32-1.47), as well as patients who had a perioperative complication (OR 1.16, 95%CI 1.10-1.23) and patients not discharged home (OR 1.41, 95%CI 1.33-1.49), were more likely to require ED care. In contrast, patients undergoing resection for cancer or surgery for an elective basis were less likely to present to the ED postoperatively (OR 0.92, 95%CI 0.87-0.97 and OR 0.22, 95%CI 0.20-0.23, respectively). Patients often had multiple ED visits within 30 days of discharge as 37.2% of patients presented to the ED with at least 2 visits. Visits were also most common in the immediate postoperative period, with 30.9% of ED visits taking place in the first 2 days from discharge. Among patients requiring postoperative ED care, 53.9% were readmitted within 30 days.

CONCLUSION

More than 1 in 4 patients undergoing hepatopancreatic surgery presented to the ED within 30 days of discharge, with most patients returning to the ED within the first week of discharge. A subset of patients had multiple ED visits. Future efforts should target patients most likely to be high ED utilizers to avoid the need for early post-discharge ED use.

A higher hospital case mix index increases the odds of achieving a textbook outcome after hepatopancreatic surgery in the Medicare population

BACKGROUND

The objective of the current study was to assess the impact of case mix index at the hospital level on postoperative outcomes among Medicare beneficiaries who underwent hepatopancreatic surgery.

METHODS

Medicare beneficiaries who underwent hepatopancreatic surgery between 2013 and 2017 were identified and analyzed. The primary independent variable, Case Mix Index, is a freely available metric; the primary outcome was textbook outcome defined as the absence of complications, extended length of stay, readmission, and mortality.

RESULTS

Among 37,412 Medicare beneficiaries, 64.9% (n = 24,299) underwent a pancreatectomy and 35.1% (n = 13,113) underwent hepatectomy. The overall incidence of textbook outcome was 47.2%, which varied by case mix index (low case mix index: 41.6% vs high case mix index: 51.3%), as did extended length of stay (low case mix index: 27.9% versus high case mix index: 19.3%), complications (low case mix index: 33.3% vs high case mix index: 24.7%), and 90-day mortality (low case mix index: 12.5% vs high case mix index: 6.3%). After controlling for hepatopancreatic-specific surgical volume and hospital teaching status, multivariable analyses revealed that patients who underwent surgery at a low case mix index hospital had 28% decreased odds (95% confidence interval 0.66-0.79) of achieving a textbook outcome versus patients from a high case mix index hospital. Moreover, patients at a low case mix index hospital had 39% increased odds of extended length of stay (95% confidence interval 1.23-1.59), 48% increased odds of experiencing a complication (95% confidence interval 1.32-1.65), and 56% increased odds of 90-day mortality (95% confidence interval 1.31-1.87).

CONCLUSION

Case mix index was strongly associated with the probability of achieving a textbook outcome after hepatopancreatic surgery. Hospitals with a higher case mix index were more likely to perform hepatopancreatic surgeries with no adverse postoperative outcomes.

Association of Depression with In-Patient and Post-Discharge Disposition and Expenditures Among Medicare Beneficiaries Undergoing Resection for Cancer

BACKGROUND

The impact of depression on utilization of post-discharge care and overall episode of care expenditures remains poorly defined. We sought to define the impact of depression on postoperative outcomes, including discharge disposition, as well as overall expenditures associated with the global episode of surgical care.

METHOD

The Medicare 100% Standard Analytic Files were used to identify patients undergoing resection for esophageal, colon, rectal, pancreatic, and liver cancer between 2013 and 2017. The impact of depression on inpatient outcomes, as well as home health care and skilled nursing facilities utilization and expenditures, was analyzed.

RESULTS

Among 113,263 patients, 14,618 (12.9%) individuals had depression. Patients with depression were more likely to experience postoperative complications (odds ratio [OR] 1.36, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.31-1.42), extended length of stay (LOS) (OR 1.41, 95% CI 1.36-1.47), readmission within 90 days (OR 1.20, 95% CI 1.14-1.25), as well as 90-day mortality (OR 1.35, 95% CI 1.27-1.42) (all p < 0.05). In turn, the proportion of patients who achieved a textbook outcome following cancer surgery was lower among patients with depression (no depression: 53.3% vs. depression: 45.3%; OR 0.70, 95% CI 0.68-0.73). Patients with a preexisting diagnosis of depression had higher odds of additional post-discharge expenditures compared with individuals without a diagnosis of depression (OR 1.42; 95% CI 1.35-1.50); patients with a preexisting diagnosis of depression ($10,500, IQR $3,200-$22,500) had higher median post-discharge expenditures versus patients without depression ($6600, IQR $2100-$17,400) (p < 0.001). On multivariable analysis, after controlling for other factors, depression remained associated with a 19.0% (95% confidence interval [CI] 15.7-22.3%) increase in post-discharge expenditures.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with depression undergoing resection for cancer had worse in-patient outcomes and were less likely to achieve a TO. Patients with depression were more likely to require post-discharge care and had higher post-discharge expenditures.

High Social Vulnerability and "Textbook Outcomes" after Cancer Operation

BACKGROUND

The effect of community-level factors on surgical outcomes has not been well examined. We sought to characterize differences in "textbook outcomes" (TO) relative to social vulnerability among Medicare beneficiaries who underwent operations for cancer.

METHODS

Individuals who underwent operations for lung, esophageal, colon, or rectal cancer between 2013 and 2017 were identified using the Medicare database, which was merged with the CDC's Social Vulnerability Index (SVI). TO was defined as surgical episodes with the absence of complications, extended length of stay, readmission, and mortality. The association of SVI and TO was assessed using mixed-effects logistic regression.

RESULTS

Among 203,800 patients (colon, n = 113,929; lung, n = 70,642; rectal, n = 14,849; and esophageal, n = 4,380), median age was 75 years (interquartile range 70 to 80 years) and the overwhelming majority of patients was White (n = 184,989 [90.8%]). The overall incidence of TO was 56.1% (n = 114,393). The incidence of complications (low SVI: 21.5% vs high SVI: 24.0%) and 90-day mortality (low SVI: 7.0% vs high SVI: 8.4%) were higher among patients from highly vulnerable neighborhoods (both, p < 0.05). In turn, there were lower odds of achieving TO among high-vs low-SVI patients (odds ratio 0.83; 95% CI, 0.78 to 0.87). Although high-SVI White patients had 10% lower odds (95% CI, 0.87 to 0.93) of achieving TO, high-SVI non-White patients were at 22% lower odds (95% CI, 0.71 to 0.85) of postoperative TO. Compared with low-SVI White patients, high-SVI minority patients had 47% increased odds of an extended length of stay, 40% increased odds of a complication, and 23% increased odds of 90-day mortality (all, p < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Only roughly one-half of Medicare beneficiaries achieved the composite optimal TO quality metric. Social vulnerability was associated with lower attainment of TO and an increased risk of adverse postoperative surgical outcomes after several common oncologic procedures. The effect of high SVI was most pronounced among minority patients.

Novel Machine Learning Approach to Identify Preoperative Risk Factors Associated With Super-Utilization of Medicare Expenditure Following Surgery

Importance

Typically defined as the top 5% of health care users, super-utilizers are responsible for an estimated 40% to 55% of all health care costs. Little is known about which factors may be associated with increased risk of long-term postoperative super-utilization.

Objective

To identify clusters of patients with distinct constellations of clinical and comorbid patterns who may be associated with an elevated risk of super-utilization in the year following elective surgery.

Design, Setting, and Participants

A retrospective longitudinal cohort study of 1 049 160 patients who underwent abdominal aortic aneurysm repair, coronary artery bypass graft, colectomy, total hip arthroplasty, total knee arthroplasty, or lung resection were identified from the 100% Medicare inpatient and outpatient Standard Analytic Files at all inpatient facilities performing 1 or more of the evaluated surgical procedures from 2013 to 2015. Data from 2012 to 2016 were used to evaluate expenditures in the year preceding and following surgery. Using a machine learning approach known as Logic Forest, comorbidities and interactions of comorbidities that put patients at an increased chance of becoming a super-utilizer were identified. All comorbidities, as defined by the Charlson (range, 0-24) and Elixhauser (range, 0-29) comorbidity indices, were used in the analysis. Higher scores indicated higher comorbidity burden. Data analysis was completed on November 16, 2018.

Main Outcome and Measures

Super-utilization of health care in the year following surgery.

Results

In total, 1 049 160 patients met inclusion criteria and were included in the analytic cohort. Their median (interquartile range) age was 73 (69-78) years, and approximately 40% were male. Super-utilizers comprised 4.8% of the overall cohort (n = 79 746) yet incurred 31.7% of the expenditures. Although the difference in overall expenditures per person between super-utilizers ($4049) and low users ($2148) was relatively modest prior to surgery, the difference in expenditures between super-utilizers ($79 698) vs low users ($2977) was marked in the year following surgery. Risk factors associated with super-utilization of health care included hemiplegia/paraplegia (odds ratio, 5.2; 95% CI, 4.4-6.2), weight loss (odds ratio, 3.5; 95% CI, 2.9-4.2), and congestive heart failure with chronic kidney disease stages I to IV (odds ratio, 3.4; 95% CI, 3.0-3.9).

Conclusions and Relevance

Super-utilizers comprised only a small fraction of the surgical population yet were responsible for a disproportionate amount of Medicare expenditure. Certain subpopulations were associated with super-utilization of health care following surgical intervention despite having lower overall use in the preoperative period.

Assessment of utilization efficiency using machine learning techniques: A study of heterogeneity in preoperative healthcare utilization among super-utilizers

INTRODUCTION

In the United States, 5% of patients represent up to 55% of all health care costs. This study sought to define healthcare utilization patterns among super-utilizers, as well as assess possible variation in patient outcomes.

METHODS

Medicare super-utilizers undergoing either a total hip or knee arthroplasty were identified and entered into a cluster analysis using annual preoperative charges to identify distinct patterns of utilization.

RESULTS

Among 19,522 super-utilizers who underwent THA or TKA, there was a marked heterogeneity in overall utilization with 5 distinct clusters of utilization patterns. Of note, comorbidity burden was similar among the 5 clusters. Patient outcomes also varied by Cluster type, ranging from 6.9% to 16.5% experiencing complications and 1.0%-3.2% experiencing 90-day mortality.

CONCLUSION

While previous studies have suggested that super-utilizers are a homogenous group of patients, the current study demonstrated a large degree of heterogeneity within super-utilizers. Variations in utilization patterns were associated with postoperative outcomes and subsequent health care costs.

Is Annual Preoperative Utilization an Indicator of Postoperative Surgical Outcomes? A Study in Medicare Expenditure

INTRODUCTION

Data on the association of high preoperative healthcare utilization and adverse clinical outcomes are scarce. We sought to evaluate the role of annual preoperative expenditure (APE) as a surrogate for latent variables of risk for adverse short-term postoperative outcomes.

METHODS

Low and super-utilizers who underwent abdominal aortic aneurysm repair, coronary artery bypass graft, colectomy, total hip arthroplasty, total knee arthroplasty, or lung resection between 2013 and 2015 were identified from 100% Medicare Inpatient Standard Analytic Files. To assess the association between APE and postoperative outcomes, multivariable logistic regression was utilized.

RESULTS

Among 1,049,160 patients, 788,488 (75.1%) and 21,700 (2.1%) patients were preoperative low- and super-utilizers, respectively. Median APE was more than 60 times higher among super-utilizers than low-utilizers ($57,160 vs. $932), as was the cost of the surgical episode ($21,141 vs. $13,179). The predictive ability of APE ranged from 0.683 (95% CI 0.678-0.687) for 90-day readmission to 0.882 (95% CI 0.879-0.886) for a complication at the index hospitalization. Among super-utilizers, the odds of a complication during the surgical episode was nearly double versus low-utilizers (OR = 1.96, 95% CI 1.89-2.04). Super-utilizers also had an increased odds of 30-day readmission (OR = 1.64, 95% CI 1.58-1.69) and mortality (OR = 2.22; 95% CI 2.04-2.42).

CONCLUSION

APE was able to predict adverse postsurgical outcomes including complications during the surgical episode, readmission, and 90-day mortality. APE should be considered in the assessment of patient populations when defining risk of adverse postoperative events.