External validation of postoperative pancreatic fistula prediction scores in pancreatoduodenectomy: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Comparisons of laparoscopic and robotic pancreaticoduodenectomy using barbed and conventional sutures for pancreaticojejunostomy: a propensity score matching study

BACKGROUND

There are limited data on the effect of different sutures and surgical approaches on the quality of pancreaticojejunostomy in minimally invasive pancreaticoduodenectomy (MIPD). This study compares the incidence of clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) between the use of barbed sutures (BSs) and conventional sutures (CSs).

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted on 253 consecutive patients who had undergone MIPD from July 2016 to April 2023. Patients were excluded if conversion to open surgery or open anastomosis was necessary. 220 patients were enrolled and divided into BS (n = 148) and CS (n = 72) groups. After 1:1 propensity score matching (PSM), 67 cases remained in each group. Univariate and multivariate analyses identified factors associated with CR-POPF. Comparisons were also made between laparoscopic (LPD) and robotic (RPD) pancreaticoduodenectomy.

RESULTS

After PSM, BSs were associated with significantly lower rates of CR-POPF (7.5 vs. 22.4%, P = 0.015) and severe complications (Clavien-Dindo ≥ III) (7.5vs. 19.4%, P = 0.043). No significant differences were found in operative time, length of postoperative hospital stay, or other major morbidities. Multivariate analyses revealed BMI ≥ 22 kg/m2 (OR = 5.048, 95% CI: 1.256-20.287, P = 0.023) and the use of BSs (OR = 0.196, 95% CI: 0.059-0.653, P = 0.008) as the independent predictors of CR-POPF. There were no significant differences in postoperative outcomes between the LPD and RPD groups, but RPD was associated with significantly shorter operative time (402.8 min vs. 429.4 min, P = 0.015).

CONCLUSIONS

In conclusion, using BSs for PJ during MIPD is feasible and has the potential to reduce CR-POPF and severe complications.

Stent placement for the prevention of clinically-relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula following pancreaticojejunostomy: A systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

There remains a lack of consensus regarding the benefits of stent placement following pancreaticojejunostomy in terms of clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistulas (CR-POPFs). This study was aimed at analyzing the effects of stent placement, stent technique (internal and external), stent size, and dilation of the main pancreatic duct on CR-POPFs.

METHODS

Our study comprised a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials involving patients undergoing pancreaticojejunostomy. The primary outcome was defined as the incidence of CR-POPFs. Additionally, subgroup analyses were conducted, and pooled analyses were performed to provide comparative references.

RESULTS

Twelve randomized controlled trials, including a total of 1117 patients, were included. Compared with no stent placement, stenting did not exhibit a significant association with reduced CR-POPF incidence (odds ratio [OR] ​= ​0.60, 95% CI: 0.34-1.04, P ​= ​0.07). Subgroup analysis revealed that only external stents, and not internal stents, were significantly associated with a reduced CR-POPF incidence compared with no stent placement (OR ​= ​0.53, 95% CI: 0.28-0.99, P ​= ​0.05 vs. OR ​= ​0.92, 95% CI: 0.28-3.05, P ​= ​0.89). Furthermore, stent placement in patients with a main pancreatic duct diameter of ≤3 ​mm, and not in those with a main pancreatic duct diameter of >3 ​mm, was associated with a significantly reduced CR-POPF incidence compared with no stent placement (OR ​= ​0.24, 95% CI: 0.07-0.78, P ​= ​0.02 vs. OR ​= ​1.58, 95% CI: 0.41-6.06, P ​= ​0.50).

CONCLUSIONS

The findings suggest a potential role for external stent placement in the prevention of CR-POPFs after pancreaticojejunostomy, particularly in patients with undilated pancreatic ducts. The reliability of our findings is constrained by the limited number of studies included.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42022380103.

Machine Learning-based Prediction of Postoperative Pancreatic Fistula Following Pancreaticoduodenectomy

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to develop a novel machine learning model to predict clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) following pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD).

BACKGROUND

Accurate prognostication of CR-POPF may allow for risk stratification and adaptive treatment strategies for potential PD candidates. However, antecedent models, such as the modified Fistula Risk Score (mFRS), are limited by poor discrimination and calibration.

METHODS

All records entailing PD within the 2014 to 2018 American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) were identified. In addition, patients undergoing PD at our institution between 2013 and 2021 were queried from our local data repository. An eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model was developed to estimate the risk of CR-POPF using data from the ACS NSQIP and evaluated using institutional data. Model discrimination was estimated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) and area under the precision recall curve (AUPRC).

RESULTS

Overall, 12,281 and 445 patients undergoing PD were identified within the 2014 to 2018 ACS NSQIP and our institutional registry, respectively. Application of the XGBoost and mFRS scores to the internal validation dataset revealed that the former model had significantly greater AUROC (0.72 vs 0.68, P <0.001) and AUPRC (0.22 vs 0.18, P <0.001). Within the external validation dataset, the XGBoost model remained superior to the mFRS with an AUROC of 0.79 (95% CI: 0.74-0.84) versus 0.75 (95% CI: 0.70-0.80, P <0.001). In addition, AUPRC was higher for the XGBoost model, compared with the mFRS.

CONCLUSION

Our novel machine learning model consistently outperformed the previously validated mFRS within internal and external validation cohorts, thereby demonstrating its generalizability and utility for enhancing prediction of CR-POPF.

Evaluation of postoperative pancreatic fistula prediction scales following pancreatoduodenectomies based on magnetic resonance imaging: A diagnostic test study

BACKGROUND

Postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) is one of the most feared and common complications following pancreatoduodenectomies. This study aims to evaluate the performance of different scales in predicting POPF using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), including estimation of the pancreatic duct diameter, pancreatic texture, main duct index, relation to the portal vein, and intra-abdominal fat thickness.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A retrospective diagnostic test study was designed. Between January 2017 and December 2021, 133 pancreatoduodenectomies were performed at our institution. The performance for predicting overall POPF and clinically relevant POPF (CR-POPF) was evaluated using a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.

RESULTS

A total of 96 patients were included in the study, of whom 26 patients experienced overall POPF, and 8 patients had CR-POPF. When analyzing the predictive value of each of the different scores applied, the Birmingham score showed the highest performance for predicting overall POPF and CR-POPF with an AUC (area under the curve) of 0.815 (95 % CI 0.725-0.906) and 0.813 (0.679-0.947), respectively.

CONCLUSION

The Birmingham scale demonstrated the highest predictive performance for POPF. It is a simple scale with only two variables that can be obtained preoperatively using MRI. Based on these results, we recommend its use in patients undergoing pancreatoduodenectomy.

Optimizing prediction models for pancreatic fistula after pancreatectomy: Current status and future perspectives

Postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) is a frequent complication after pancreatectomy, leading to increased morbidity and mortality. Optimizing prediction models for POPF has emerged as a critical focus in surgical research. Although over sixty models following pancreaticoduodenectomy, predominantly reliant on a variety of clinical, surgical, and radiological parameters, have been documented, their predictive accuracy remains suboptimal in external validation and across diverse populations. As models after distal pancreatectomy continue to be progressively reported, their external validation is eagerly anticipated. Conversely, POPF prediction after central pancreatectomy is in its nascent stage, warranting urgent need for further development and validation. The potential of machine learning and big data analytics offers promising prospects for enhancing the accuracy of prediction models by incorporating an extensive array of variables and optimizing algorithm performance. Moreover, there is potential for the development of personalized prediction models based on patient- or pancreas-specific factors and postoperative serum or drain fluid biomarkers to improve accuracy in identifying individuals at risk of POPF. In the future, prospective multicenter studies and the integration of novel imaging technologies, such as artificial intelligence-based radiomics, may further refine predictive models. Addressing these issues is anticipated to revolutionize risk stratification, clinical decision-making, and postoperative management in patients undergoing pancreatectomy.

Risk Models for Developing Pancreatic Fistula After Pancreatoduodenectomy: Validation in a Nationwide Prospective Cohort

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the performance of published fistula risk models by external validation, and to identify independent risk factors for postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF).

BACKGROUND

Multiple risk models have been developed to predict POPF after pancreatoduodenectomy. External validation in high-quality prospective cohorts is, however, lacking or only performed for individual models.

METHODS

A post hoc analysis of data from the stepped-wedge cluster cluster-randomized Care After Pancreatic Resection According to an Algorithm for Early Detection and Minimally Invasive Management of Pancreatic Fistula versus Current Practice (PORSCH) trial was performed. Included were all patients undergoing pancreatoduodenectomy in the Netherlands (January 2018-November 2019). Risk models on POPF were identified by a systematic literature search. Model performance was evaluated by calculating the area under the receiver operating curves (AUC) and calibration plots. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to identify independent risk factors associated with clinically relevant POPF.

RESULTS

Overall, 1358 patients undergoing pancreatoduodenectomy were included, of whom 341 patients (25%) developed clinically relevant POPF. Fourteen risk models for POPF were evaluated, with AUCs ranging from 0.62 to 0.70. The updated alternative fistula risk score had an AUC of 0.70 (95% confidence intervals [CI]: 0.69-0.72). The alternative fistula risk score demonstrated an AUC of 0.70 (95% CI: 0.689-0.71), whilst an AUC of 0.70 (95% CI: 0.699-0.71) was also found for the model by Petrova and colleagues. Soft pancreatic texture, pathology other than pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma or chronic pancreatitis, small pancreatic duct diameter, higher body mass index, minimally invasive resection and male sex were identified as independent predictors of POPF.

CONCLUSION

Published risk models predicting clinically relevant POPF after pancreatoduodenectomy have a moderate predictive accuracy. Their clinical applicability to identify high-risk patients and guide treatment strategies is therefore questionable.

Development and validation of a novel nomogram to predict postoperative pancreatic fistula after pancreatoduodenectomy using lasso-logistic regression: an international multi-institutional observational study

BACKGROUND

Existing prediction models for clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) after pancreatoduodenectomy (PD) lack discriminatory power or are too complex. This study aimed to develop a simple nomogram that could accurately predict clinically relevant POPF after PD.

METHODS

A high-volume, multicenter cohort of patients who underwent PD from the American College of Surgeons-National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database in the United States during 2014-2017 was used as the model training cohort ( n =3609), and patients who underwent PD from the Pancreatic Center of the National Cancer Center Hospital in China during 2014-2019 were used as the external validation cohort ( n =1347). The study used lasso penalized regression to screen large-scale variables, then logistic regression was performed to screen the variables and build a model. Finally, a prediction nomogram for clinically relevant POPF was established based on the logistic model, and polynomial equations were extracted. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis.

RESULTS

In the training and validation cohorts, there were 16.7% (601/3609) and 16.6% (224/1347) of patients who developed clinically relevant POPF, respectively. After screening using lasso and logistic regression, only six predictors were independently associated with clinically relevant POPF, including two preoperative indicators (weight and pancreatic duct size), one intraoperative indicator (pancreatic texture), and three postoperative indicators (deep surgical site infection, delayed gastric emptying, and pathology). The prediction of the new nomogram was accurate, with an area under the curve of 0.855 (95% CI: 0.702-0.853) in the external validation cohort, and the predictive performance was superior to three previously proposed POPF risk score models (all P <0.001, likelihood ratio test).

CONCLUSIONS

A reliable lasso-logistic method was applied to establish a novel nomogram based on six readily available indicators, achieving a sustained, dynamic, and precise POPF prediction for PD patients. With a limited number of variables and easy clinical application, this new model will enable surgeons to proactively predict, identify, and manage pancreatic fistulas to obtain better outcomes from this daunting postoperative complication.

Development and Validation of a Model for Postpancreatectomy Hemorrhage Risk

Importance

Postpancreatectomy hemorrhage (PPH) due to postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) is a life-threatening complication after pancreatoduodenectomy. However, there is no prediction tool for early identification of patients at high risk of late PPH.

Objective

To develop and validate a prediction model for PPH.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This retrospective prognostic study included consecutive patients with clinically relevant POPF who underwent pancreatoduodenectomy from January 1, 2009, to May 20, 2023, at the University Hospital Mannheim (derivation cohort), and from January 1, 2012, to May 31, 2022, at the University Hospital Dresden (validation cohort). Data analysis was performed from May 30 to July 29, 2023.

Exposure

Clinical and radiologic features of PPH.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Accuracy of a predictive risk score of PPH. A multivariate prediction model-the hemorrhage risk score (HRS)-was established in the derivation cohort (n = 139) and validated in the validation cohort (n = 154).

Results

A total of 293 patients (187 [64%] men; median age, 69 [IQR, 60-76] years) were included. The HRS comprised 4 variables with associations: sentinel bleeding (odds ratio [OR], 35.10; 95% CI, 5.58-221.00; P < .001), drain fluid culture positive for Candida species (OR, 14.40; 95% CI, 2.24-92.20; P < .001), and radiologic proof of rim enhancement of (OR, 12.00; 95% CI, 2.08-69.50; P = .006) or gas within (OR, 12.10; 95% CI, 2.22-65.50; P = .004) a peripancreatic fluid collection. Two risk categories were identified with patients at low risk (0-1 points) and high risk (≥2 points) to develop PPH. Patients with PPH were predicted accurately in the derivation cohort (C index, 0.97) and validation cohort (C index 0.83). The need for more invasive PPH management (74% vs 34%; P < .001) and severe complications (49% vs 23%; P < .001) were more frequent in high-risk patients compared with low-risk patients.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this retrospective prognostic study, a robust prediction model for PPH was developed and validated. This tool may facilitate early identification of patients at high risk for PPH.

Preoperative Fistula Risk Prediction Using Computed Tomography Image Before Pancreatoduodenectomy

BACKGROUND

Although many formulas for predicting postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) have been introduced, POPF is generally predicted during pancreatic surgery due to pancreatic texture. This study was designed to verify the correlation between Hounsfield units (HU) and pancreatic texture and to suggest a fistula risk score (FRS) that can be used before surgery.

METHODS

Data from 545 patients who underwent pancreatoduodenectomy for malignant disease between January 2008 and December 2019 were retrospectively reviewed. The HU level of the pancreas was measured, and odds ratio (OR) of the HU for POPF was analyzed. Additionally, the assessed HU was compared with the pancreatic texture (soft vs. hard) and calculated cutoff level. Finally, the preoperatively chosen pancreatic texture according to HU level was applied to the FRS formula (preoperative-FRS: p-FRS), and the results were compared with a previously reported FRS formula (updated alternative-FRS: ua-FRS).

RESULTS

The Hounsfield unit levels were correlated with clinically relevant POPF (CR-POPF) (odds ratio [OR]: 1.04 (1.01-1.07), p = 0.015). In the receiver operating characteristic curve, the HU showed significant prediction potential for pancreatic texture (area under the curve [AUC]: 0.744, p < 0.001). The p-FRS also showed acceptable results in predicting CR-POPF (AUC = 0.702, p < 0.001). There was no statistically significant difference in the DeLong's test compared with the ua-FRS (p = 0.314). In the Hosmer-Lemeshow test, observed probabilities were correlated with predicted probabilities (p = 0.596).

CONCLUSIONS

The HU level on preoperative computed tomography (CT) is a predictive factor for POPF and could represent for pancreatic texture.

External validation of scores predicting postoperative fistula after pancreatogastrostomy for pancreatoduodenectomy reconstruction. A single center experience

BACKGROUND

Clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) is the most frequent complication of pancreatic surgery and can be fatal. Selection and stratification of patients according to the risk of POPF are important for the perioperative management. Predictive metrics have been developed and validated in pancreatojejunostomy. Aim of this study is to assess whether the most used prognostic scores can be predictive of fistula following Wirsung-pancreaticogastrostomy (WPG) for pancreatoduodenectomy (PD)reconstruction.

METHOD

This single-center prospective observational study included 212 PDs between January 2008 and October 2022 with a standardized WPG. All component variables of the six scores were separately validated in our cohort. The overall predictive ability of the six fistula scores was measured and compared with the receiver operating characteristics curves (ROC) method and expressed by the area under the ROC-curve (AUC). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed considering all risk factors in the scores in order to identify variables independently correlated with POPF in the WPG.

RESULTS

CR-POPF occurred in 36 of 212 (17 %) patients. All scores showed poor prognostic stratification for the development of CR-POPF. The occurrence of CR-POPF was associated with nine factors: male gender (p = 0.003); BMI (kg/m2) (p = 0.005); ASA (%) (p = 0.003); Soft pancreatic texture (%) (p = 0.003), Pathology (p = 0.008); MPD (p = 0.011); EBL (mL) (p = 0.021); Preop. Bilirubin (mg/dl) (p = 0.038); Preop. Glucose (mg/dl) (p = 0.0369). Male gender (OR: 5.54, CI 1.41-21.3) and soft consistency of the remnant pancreas (OR: 3.83, CI 1.14-12.8) were the only independent prognostic factors on multivariate analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study including exclusively pancreatogastrostomies failed to validate the most used predictive scores for POPF. We found that only male gender and soft pancreatic texture are associated with POPF. Specific predictive scores following pancreatogasgtrostomy are needed.

Drain fluid biomarkers for the diagnosis of clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula: a diagnostic accuracy systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Pancreatectomy is the only curative treatment available for pancreatic cancer and a necessity for patients with challenging pancreatic pathology. To optimize outcomes, postsurgical complications such as clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) should be minimized. Central to this is the ability to predict and diagnose CR-POPF, potentially through drain fluid biomarkers. This study aimed to assess the utility of drain fluid biomarkers for predicting CR-POPF by conducting a diagnostic test accuracy systematic review and meta-analysis.

METHODS

Five databases were searched for relevant and original papers published from January 2000 to December 2021, with citation chaining capturing additional studies. The QUADAS-2 tool was used to assess the risk of bias and concerns regarding applicability of the selected studies.

RESULTS

Seventy-eight papers were included in the meta-analysis, encompassing six drain biomarkers and 30 758 patients with a CR-POPF prevalence of 17.42%. The pooled sensitivity and specificity for 15 cut-offs were determined. Potential triage tests (negative predictive value >90%) were identified for the ruling out of CR-POPF and included postoperative day 1 (POD1) drain amylase in pancreatoduodenectomy (PD) patients (300 U/l) and in mixed surgical cohorts (2500 U/l), POD3 drain amylase in PD patients (1000-1010 U/l) and drain lipase in mixed surgery groups (180 U/l). Notably, drain POD3 lipase had a higher sensitivity than POD3 amylase, while POD3 amylase had a higher specificity than POD1.

CONCLUSIONS

The current findings using the pooled cut-offs will offer options for clinicians seeking to identify patients for quicker recovery. Improving the reporting of future diagnostic test studies will further clarify the diagnostic utility of drain fluid biomarkers, facilitating their inclusion in multivariable risk-stratification models and the improvement of pancreatectomy outcomes.

Multidimensional Nomogram to Predict Postoperative Pancreatic Fistula after Minimally Invasive Pancreaticoduodenectomy

BACKGROUND

Clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) is an inherently severe risk of pancreatic resection. Previous research has proposed models that identify risk factors and predict CR-POPF, although these are rarely applicable to minimally invasive pancreaticoduodenectomy (MIPD). This study aimed to evaluate the individual risks of CR-POPF and to propose a nomogram for predicting POPF in MIPD.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of 429 patients who underwent MIPD. In the multivariate analysis, the Akaike information criterion stepwise logistic regression method was used to select the final model to develop the nomogram.

RESULTS

Of 429 patients, 53 (12.4%) experienced CR-POPF. On multivariate analysis, pancreatic texture (p = 0.001), open conversion (p = 0.008), intraoperative transfusion (p = 0.011), and pathology (p = 0.048) were identified as independent predictors of CR-POPF. The nomogram was developed based on patient, pancreatic, operative, and surgeon factors by using the following four additional clinical factors as variables: American Society of Anesthesiologists class ≥ III, size of pancreatic duct, type of surgical approach, and < 40 cases of MIPD experience.

CONCLUSIONS

A multidimensional nomogram was developed to predict CR-POPF after MIPD. This nomogram and calculator can help surgeons anticipate, select, and manage critical complications.

Postoperative Serum Hyperamylasemia Adds Sequential Value to the Fistula Risk Score in Predicting Pancreatic Fistula after Pancreatoduodenectomy

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate whether postoperative serum hyperamylasemia (POH), with drain fluid amylase (DFA) and C-reactive protein (CRP), improves the Fistula Risk Score (FRS) accuracy in assessing the risk of a postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF).

SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA

The FRS predicts POPF occurrence using intraoperative predictors with good accuracy but intrinsic limits.

METHODS

Outcomes of patients who underwent pancreaticoduodenectomies between 2016 and 2021 were evaluated across FRS-risk zones and POH occurrence. POH consists of serum amylase activity greater than the upper limit of normal (52 U/l), persisting within the first 48 hours postoperatively (postoperative day -POD- 1 and 2).

RESULTS

Out of 905 pancreaticoduodenectomies, some FRS elements, namely soft pancreatic texture (odds ratio (OR) 11.6), pancreatic duct diameter (OR 0.80), high-risk pathologic diagnosis (OR 1.54), but not higher blood loss (OR 0.99), were associated with POH. POH was an independent predictor of POPF, which occurred in 46.8% of POH cases ( P <0.001). Once POH occurs, POPF incidence rises from 3.8% to 42.9%, 22.9% to 41.7%, and 48.9% to 59.2% in patients intraoperatively classified at low, moderate and high FRS risk, respectively. The predictive ability of multivariable models adding POD 1 drain fluid amylase, POD 1-2 POH and POD 3 C-reactive protein to the FRS showed progressively and significantly higher accuracy (AUC FRS=0.82, AUC FRS-DFA=0.85, AUC FRS-DFA-POH=0.87, AUC FRS-DFA-POH-CRP=0.90, DeLong always P <0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

POPF risk assessment should follow a dynamic process. The stepwise retrieval of early, postoperative biological markers improves clinical risk stratification by increasing the granularity of POPF risk estimates and affords a possible therapeutic window before the actual morbidity of POPF occurs.

Single Center, Propensity Score Matching Analysis of Different Reconstruction Techniques following Pancreatoduodenectomy

BACKGROUND

Pancreatoduodenectomy is still hampered by significant morbidity. So far, there is no universally accepted technique aimed at minimizing postoperative complications. Herein, we compare three different reconstruction techniques.

METHODS

This is a retrospective study of a prospectively maintained database including 283 patients operated between January 2010 and December 2020. Three reconstruction techniques were compared: (1) the Neuhaus-style telescope pancreatojejunostomy, (2) the pancreatogastrostomy, and (3) the modified Blumgart-style, duct-to-mucosa pancreatojejunostomy. The primary endpoint consisted in determining the rates of clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistulas (CR-POPF); the secondary endpoints included 90 days morbidity and mortality rates. A propensity score matching analysis was used.

RESULTS

Rates of CR-POPF did not differ significantly between the groups (Neuhaus-style pancreatojejunostomy 16%, pancreatogastrostomy 17%, modified Blumgart-style pancreatojejunostomy 15%), neither in the unmatched nor in the matched analysis (p = 0.993 and p = 0.901, respectively). Similarly, no significant differences could be observed with regard to major morbidity (unmatched p = 0.596, matched p = 0.188) and mortality rates (unmatched p = 0.371, matched p = 0.209) within the first 90 days following surgery. Propensity-score matching analyses revealed, however, a higher occurrence of post-pancreatectomy hemorrhage after pancreatogastrostomy (p = 0.015).

CONCLUSION

Similar CR-POPF rates suggest no crucial role of the applied reconstruction technique. Increased incidence of intraluminal post-pancreatectomy hemorrhages following pancreatogastrostomy demands awareness for meticulous hemostasis.

Prediction of postoperative pancreatic fistula and pancreatitis after pancreatoduodenectomy or distal pancreatectomy: A review

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF) is the leading cause of morbidity and early mortality in patients undergoing pancreatic resection. In addition, recent studies have identified postoperative acute pancreatitis (POAP) as an independent contributor to morbidity. Most perioperative mitigation strategies experimented for POPF have been shown to be in vain with no consensus on the best perioperative management. Clinical prediction models have been developed with the hope of identifying high POPF risk patients with the leading idea of finding subpopulations possibly benefiting from pre-existing or novel mitigation strategies. The aim of this review was to map out the existing prediction modeling studies to better understand the current stage of POPF prediction modeling, and the methodology behind them.

METHODS

A narrative review of the existing POPF prediction model studies was performed. Studies published before September 2022 were included.

RESULTS

While the number of POPF prediction models for pancreatoduodenectomy has increased, none of the currently existing models stand out from the crowd. For distal pancreatectomy, two unique POPF prediction models exist, but due to their freshness, no further external validation or adoption in clinics or research has been reported. There seems to be a lack of adherence to correct methodology or reporting guidelines in most of the studies, which has rendered external validity-if assessed-low. Few of the most recent studies have demonstrated preoperative assessment of pancreatic aspects from computed tomography (CT) scans to provide relatively strong predictors of POPF.

CONCLUSIONS

Main goal for the future would be to reach a consensus on the most important POPF predictors and prediction model. At their current state, few models have demonstrated adequate transportability and generalizability to be up to the task. Better understanding of POPF pathophysiology and the possible driving force of acute inflammation and POAP might be required before such a prediction model can be accessed.