Fractional optimal control of compartmental SIR model of COVID-19: Showing the impact of effective vaccination

Lie symmetry, chaos optimal control in non-linear fractional-order diabetes mellitus, human immunodeficiency virus, migraine Parkinson's diseases models: using evolutionary algorithms

The purpose of this article is to investigate the optimal control of nonlinear fractional order chaotic models of diabetes mellitus, human immunodeficiency virus, migraine and Parkinson's diseases using genetic algorithms and particle swarm optimization. Mathematical chaotic models of nonlinear fractional order type of the above diseases were presented. Then optimal control for each of the models and numerical simulation was done using genetic algorithm and particle swarm optimization algorithm. The results of the genetic algorithm method are excellent. All the results obtained for the particle swarm optimization method show that this method is also very successful and the results are very close to the genetic algorithm method. Very low values of MSE and RMSE errors indicate that the simulation is effective and efficient. Also, Lie symmetry was calculated for the proposed models and the results were presented.

A deterministic transmission model for analytics-driven optimization of COVID-19 post-pandemic vaccination and quarantine strategies

This study developed a deterministic transmission model for the coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19), considering various factors such as vaccination, awareness, quarantine, and treatment resource limitations for infected individuals in quarantine facilities. The proposed model comprised five compartments: susceptible, vaccinated, quarantined, infected, and recovery. It also considered awareness and limited resources by using a saturated function. Dynamic analyses, including equilibrium points, control reproduction numbers, and bifurcation analyses, were conducted in this research, employing analytics to derive insights. Our results indicated the possibility of an endemic equilibrium even if the reproduction number for control was less than one. Using incidence data from West Java, Indonesia, we estimated our model parameter values to calibrate them with the real situation in the field. Elasticity analysis highlighted the crucial role of contact restrictions in reducing the spread of COVID-19, especially when combined with community awareness. This emphasized the analytics-driven nature of our approach. We transformed our model into an optimal control framework due to budget constraints. Leveraging Pontriagin's maximum principle, we meticulously formulated and solved our optimal control problem using the forward-backward sweep method. Our experiments underscored the pivotal role of vaccination in infection containment. Vaccination effectively reduces the risk of infection among vaccinated individuals, leading to a lower overall infection rate. However, combining vaccination and quarantine measures yields even more promising results than vaccination alone. A second crucial finding emphasized the need for early intervention during outbreaks rather than delayed responses. Early interventions significantly reduce the number of preventable infections, underscoring their importance.

A case study of 2019-nCoV in Russia using integer and fractional order derivatives

In this article, we define a mathematical model to analyze the outbreaks of the most deadly disease of the decade named 2019-nCoV by using integer and fractional order derivatives. For the case study, the real data of Russia is taken to perform novel parameter estimation by using the Trust Region Reflective (TRR) algorithm. First, we define an integer order model and then generalize it by using fractional derivatives. A novel optimal control problem is derived to see the impact of possible preventive measures against the spread of 2019-nCoV. We implement the forward-backward sweep method to numerically solve our proposed model and control problem. A number of graphs have been plotted to see the impact of the proposed control practically. The Russian data-based parameter estimation along with the proposal of a mathematical model in the sense of Caputo fractional derivative that contains the memory term in the system are the main novel features of this study.