Modeling the high pressure inactivation kinetics of Listeria monocytogenes on RTE cooked meat products

Modeling of the inactivation kinetics of aerobic mesophiles and yeasts and molds natural microbiota in nonthermal plasma-treated pineapple (Ananas comosus) juice

The nonthermal plasma (NTP) technology is a promising nonthermal technology that can be employed for pasteurization of fruit juice. The effect of NTP on the natural microbiota, namely, aerobic mesophiles (AM), and yeasts and molds (YM) in pineapple juice were examined in the experimental range of 25-45 kV up to 10 min treatment time. At an applied voltage of 45 kV, the AM and YM count reductions of 4.7 and 4.1 log cfu/mL were obtained at the end of the 14-min treatment. The inactivation kinetics of microbes were attempted to be explained using nonlinear models, including Weibull + tail, Geeraerd, log-logistic, Coroller, and Cerf. The residual population (Nres ) model parameter in the Geeraerd model explained the tailing behavior of microbes. Furthermore, the estimated values for the scale parameter and destruction rate constants were used to describe the sensitive and resistant percentages of the microbial population. According to statistical parameters (R2 : 0.978-0.999, RMSE: 0.034-0.277) and validation indicators (accuracy factor: 1.013-1.152, bias factor: 0.985-1.12), all models performed well. Akaike's theory was used to select the best-fit model, and the Coroller model was shown to be the most accurate one for AM and YM, exhibiting the lowest Akaike increment (Δi  = 0). PRACTICAL APPLICATION: Nonthermal plasma may be used as an alternate nonthermal process for this product in order to meet customer appeal for safe and nutritious juice with minimal processing. The goal of this work was to produce a nutritious and safe pineapple juice by using nonthermal processing.

New Insights into the Application of High-Pressure Processing and Storage Time and Temperature to Sliced Iberian Chorizo

Producing dry-cured meats with relatively high a_w and pH allows companies to cut costs to the detriment of microbial control. The purpose of this study was to evaluate for the first time the effect of High Processing Pressure (HPP) and storage temperature on the microbial counts, instrumental color, oxidation and sensory characteristics of sliced Iberian chorizo with high a_w and pH. First, 600 MPa was applied for 480 s to sliced chorizo with a_w: 0.88 and pH: 6.01, and the treated and untreated samples were stored at 4 or 20 °C for 90 or 180 days. HPP, storage time and storage at 20 °C were successful at decreasing the microbial counts that were initially high. HPP and the storage temperature had a limited detrimental effect, whereas the storage time had a marked adverse effect on oxidation and some sensory traits. Despite the high a_w and pH, no safety issues arose initially or during the storage at 4 or 20 °C. In conclusion, for chorizo with high a_w and pH favoring high microbial counts, HPP may be an effective hurdle without a noticeable detrimental effect, and the economically convenient storage at 20 °C might be beneficial despite causing moderate quality loss.

Inactivating Food Microbes by High-Pressure Processing and Combined Nonthermal and Thermal Treatment: A Review

High-pressure processing (HPP) is a mild technology alternative to thermal pasteurization and sterilization of different food products. HPP has emerged to provide enormous benefits to consumers, i.e., mildly processed food and additive-free food. It effectively retains bioactive compounds and extends the shelf life of food commodities by inactivating bacteria, yeast, mold, and virus. The limitation of HPP in inactivating spores can be overcome by using other thermal and nonthermal processing sequentially or simultaneously with HPP. This review summarizes the applications of HPP in the fruits and vegetables, dairy, meat, fish, and poultry sector. It also emphasizes microbial food safety and the effectiveness of HPP in the load reduction of microorganisms. Comprehensive information about the synergistic effect of HPP with different techniques and their effectiveness in ensuring food safety is reported. The summarized data would be handy to interested researchers and industry personnel.

Microbiological Safety and Shelf-Life of Low-Salt Meat Products-A Review

Salt is widely employed in different foods, especially in meat products, due to its very diverse and extended functionality. However, the high intake of sodium chloride in human diet has been under consideration for the last years, because it is related to serious health problems. The meat-processing industry and research institutions are evaluating different strategies to overcome the elevated salt concentrations in products without a quality reduction. Several properties could be directly or indirectly affected by a sodium chloride decrease. Among them, microbial stability could be shifted towards pathogen growth, posing a serious public health threat. Nonetheless, the majority of the literature available focuses attention on the sensorial and technological challenges that salt reduction implies. Thereafter, the need to discuss the consequences for shelf-life and microbial safety should be considered. Hence, this review aims to merge all the available knowledge regarding salt reduction in meat products, providing an assessment on how to obtain low salt products that are sensorily accepted by the consumer, technologically feasible from the perspective of the industry, and, in particular, safe with respect to microbial stability.

The efficacy and safety of high-pressure processing of food

High-pressure processing (HPP) is a non-thermal treatment in which, for microbial inactivation, foods are subjected to isostatic pressures (P) of 400-600 MPa with common holding times (t) from 1.5 to 6 min. The main factors that influence the efficacy (log10 reduction of vegetative microorganisms) of HPP when applied to foodstuffs are intrinsic (e.g. water activity and pH), extrinsic (P and t) and microorganism-related (type, taxonomic unit, strain and physiological state). It was concluded that HPP of food will not present any additional microbial or chemical food safety concerns when compared to other routinely applied treatments (e.g. pasteurisation). Pathogen reductions in milk/colostrum caused by the current HPP conditions applied by the industry are lower than those achieved by the legal requirements for thermal pasteurisation. However, HPP minimum requirements (P/t combinations) could be identified to achieve specific log10 reductions of relevant hazards based on performance criteria (PC) proposed by international standard agencies (5-8 log10 reductions). The most stringent HPP conditions used industrially (600 MPa, 6 min) would achieve the above-mentioned PC, except for Staphylococcus aureus. Alkaline phosphatase (ALP), the endogenous milk enzyme that is widely used to verify adequate thermal pasteurisation of cows' milk, is relatively pressure resistant and its use would be limited to that of an overprocessing indicator. Current data are not robust enough to support the proposal of an appropriate indicator to verify the efficacy of HPP under the current HPP conditions applied by the industry. Minimum HPP requirements to reduce Listeria monocytogenes levels by specific log10 reductions could be identified when HPP is applied to ready-to-eat (RTE) cooked meat products, but not for other types of RTE foods. These identified minimum requirements would result in the inactivation of other relevant pathogens (Salmonella and Escherichia coli) in these RTE foods to a similar or higher extent.

A mathematical model to predict the antilisteria bioprotective effect of Latilactobacillus sakei CTC494 in vacuum packaged cooked ham

Biopreservation is a strategy that has been extensively covered by the scientific literature from a variety of perspectives. However, the development of quantitative modelling approaches has received little attention, despite the usefulness of these tools for the food industry to assess the performance and to set the optimal application conditions. The objective of this study was to evaluate and model the interaction between the antilisteria strain Latilactobacillus sakei CTC494 (sakacin K producer) and Listeria monocytogenes in vacuum-packaged sliced cooked ham. Cooked ham was sliced under aseptic conditions and inoculated with L. monocytogenes CTC1034 and/or L. sakei CTC494 in monoculture and coculture at 10:10, 10:10³ and 10:10⁵ cfu/g ratios of pathogen:bioprotective cultures. Samples were vacuum packaged and stored at isothermal temperature (2, 5, 10 and 15 °C). The growth of the two bacteria was monitored by plate counting. The Logistic growth model was applied to estimate the growth kinetic parameters (N₀, λ, μ_max, N_max). The effect of storage temperature was modelled using the hyperbola (λ) and Ratkowsky (μ_max) models. The simple Jameson-effect model, its modifications including the N_cri and the interaction γ factor, and the predator-prey Lotka Volterra model were used to characterize the interaction between both microorganisms. Two additional experiments at non-isothermal temperature conditions were also carried out to assess the predictive performance of the developed models through the Acceptable Simulation Zone (ASZ) approach. In monoculture conditions, L. monocytogenes and L. sakei CTC494 grew at all temperatures. In coculture conditions, L. sakei CTC494 had an inhibitory effect on L. monocytogenes by lowering the N_max, especially with increasing levels of L. sakei CTC494 and lowering the storage temperature. At the lowest temperature (2 °C) L. sakei CTC494 was able to completely inhibit the growth of L. monocytogenes when added at a concentration 3 and 5 Log higher than that of the pathogen. The inhibitory effect of the L. sakei CTC494 against L. monocytogenes was properly characterized and modelled using the modified Jameson-effect with interaction γ factor model. The developed interaction model was tested under non-isothermal conditions, resulting in ASZ values ≥83%. This study shows the potential of L. sakei CTC494 in the biopreservation of vacuum-packaged cooked ham against L. monocytogenes. The developed interaction model can be useful for the industry as a risk management tool to assess and set biopreservation strategies for the control of L. monocytogenes in cooked ham.

Unravelling the Molecular Mechanisms Underlying the Protective Effect of Lactate on the High-Pressure Resistance of Listeria monocytogenes

Formulations with lactate as an antimicrobial and high-pressure processing (HPP) as a lethal treatment are combined strategies used to control L. monocytogenes in cooked meat products. Previous studies have shown that when HPP is applied in products with lactate, the inactivation of L. monocytogenes is lower than that without lactate. The purpose of the present work was to identify the molecular mechanisms underlying the piezo-protection effect of lactate. Two L. monocytogenes strains (CTC1034 and EGDe) were independently inoculated in a cooked ham model medium without and with 2.8% potassium lactate. Samples were pressurized at 400 MPa for 10 min at 10 °C. Samples were subjected to RNA extraction, and a shotgun transcriptome sequencing was performed. The short exposure of L. monocytogenes cells to lactate through its inoculation in a cooked ham model with lactate 1h before HPP promoted a shift in the pathogen’s central metabolism, favoring the metabolism of propanediol and ethanolamine together with the synthesis of the B12 cofactor. Moreover, the results suggest an activated methyl cycle that would promote modifications in membrane properties resulting in an enhanced resistance of the pathogen to HPP. This study provides insights on the mechanisms developed by L. monocytogenes in response to lactate and/or HPP and sheds light on the understanding of the piezo-protective effect of lactate.

Microbial inactivation by high pressure processing: principle, mechanism and factors responsible

High-pressure processing (HPP) is a novel technology for the production of minimally processed food products with better retention of the natural aroma, fresh-like taste, additive-free, stable, convenient to use. In this regard safety of products by microbial inactivation is likely to become an important focus for food technologists from the research and industrial field. High pressure induces conformational changes in the cell membranes, cell morphology. It perturbs biochemical reactions, as well as the genetic mechanism of the microorganisms, thus ensures the reduction in the microbial count. Keeping in view the commercial demand of HPP products, the scientific literature available on the mechanism of inactivation by high pressure and intrinsic and extrinsic factors affecting the efficiency of HPP are systematically and critically analyzed in this review to develop a clear understanding of these issues. Modeling applied to study the microbial inactivation kinetics by HPP is also discussed for the benefit of interested readers.

Modelling the piezo-protection effect exerted by lactate on the high pressure resistance of Listeria monocytogenes in cooked ham

Food safety is often based on the application of several preservative (hurdle) factors whose combination must be smartly selected. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the effect of lactate and diacetate on the high pressure processing (HPP) inactivation of three L. monocytogenes strains (CTC1011, CTC1034 and Scott A) in sliced cooked ham. Inoculated vacuum-packed slices of cooked ham formulated without organic acids and with lactate, diacetate or the combination of both were pressurized at 400 MPa for different holding times and the inactivation kinetics were characterised by fitting primary and secondary models. The shape of the inactivation curves for L. monocytogenes depended on both product formulation and strain. Interestingly, lactate caused a dose-dependent piezo-protection in all three strains, as the HPP inactivation rate decreased in cooked ham formulated with increasing amounts of lactate and in comparison with the control product. The design, validation and implementation of HPP requires a tailor-made approach, considering product formulation and selection of strain/s.

Control of pathogenic and spoilage bacteria in meat and meat products by high pressure: Challenges and future perspectives

High-pressure processing is among the most widely used nonthermal intervention to reduce pathogenic and spoilage bacteria in meat and meat products. However, resistance of pathogenic bacteria strains in meats at the current maximum commercial equipment of 600 MPa questions the ability of inactivation by its application in meats. Pathogens including Escherichia coli, Listeria, and Salmonelle, and spoilage microbiota including lactic acid bacteria dominate in raw meat, ready-to-eat, and packaged meat products. Improved understanding on the mechanisms of the pressure resistance is needed for optimizing the conditions of pressure treatment to effectively decontaminate harmful bacteria. Effective control of the pressure-resistant pathogens and spoilage organisms in meats can be realized by the combination of high pressure with application of mild temperature and/or other hurdles including antimicrobial agents and/or competitive microbiota. This review summarized applications, mechanisms, and challenges of high pressure on meats from the perspective of microbiology, which are important for improving the understanding and optimizing the conditions of pressure treatment in the future.

High-Pressure Carbon Dioxide Used for Pasteurization in Food Industry

The demand for safe, high-quality food has greatly increased, in recent times. As traditional thermal pasteurization can significantly impact the nutritional value and the color of fresh food, an increasing number of nonthermal pasteurization technologies have attracted attention. The bactericidal effect of high-pressure carbon dioxide has been known for many years, and its effect on food-related enzymes has been studied. This novel technology has many merits, owing to its use of relatively low pressures and temperatures, which make it a potentially valuable future method for nonthermal pasteurization. For example, the inactivation of polyphenol oxidase can be achieved with relatively low temperature and pressure, and this can contribute to food quality and better preserve nutrients, such as vitamin C. However, this novel technology has yet to be developed on an industrial scale due to insufficient test data. In order to support the further development of this application, on an industrial scale, we have reviewed the existing information on high-pressure carbon dioxide pasteurization technology. We include its bactericidal effects and its influence on food quality. We also pave the way for future studies, by highlighting key areas.

High-Hydrostatic-Pressure (HHP) Processing Technology as a Novel Control Method for Listeria monocytogenes Occurrence in Mediterranean-Style Dry-Fermented Sausages

Although conventional microbial control techniques are currently employed and largely successful, their major drawbacks are related to their effects on quality of processed food. In recent years, there has been a growing demand for high-quality foods that are microbially safe and retain most of their natural freshness. Therefore, several modern and innovative methods of microbial control in food processing have been developed. High-hydrostatic-pressure (HHP) processing technology has been mainly used to enhance the food safety of ready-to-eat (RTE) products as a new pre-/post-packaging, non-thermal purification method in the meat industry. Listeria monocytogenes is a pertinent target for microbiological safety and shelf-life; due to its capacity to multiply in a broad range of food environments, is extremely complicated to prevent in fermented-sausage-producing plants. The frequent detection of L. monocytogenes in final products emphasizes the necessity for the producers of fermented sausages to correctly overcome the hurdles of the technological process and to prevent the presence of L. monocytogenes by applying novel control techniques. This review discusses a collection of recent studies describing pressure-induced elimination of L. monocytogenes in fermented sausages produced in the Mediterranean area.

High hydrostatic pressure inactivation of microorganisms: A probabilistic model for target log-reductions

A probabilistic model based on logistic regression was developed for a target log reduction of microorganisms inactivated by high hydrostatic pressure. Published inactivation data of Salmonella Typhimurium in broth for 4 and 5 log reductions, and Escherichia coli in buffer and carrot juice for 5 log reduction were used. The probabilities of achieving 4 or 5 log reductions for S. Typhimurium in broth and 5 log reduction for E. coli in buffer and carrot juice could be calculated at different pressure, temperature and time levels. The fitted interfaces of achieving/not achieving the target log reduction were consistent with the experimental data. Although the reliability of the predictions of the developed models could be questioned due to strain variation and different food matrix, a validation study has demonstrated that the developed models could be used to predict the target log reduction of these microorganisms at different pressure, temperature and time levels. This study has indicated that the probabilistic modeling for target log reductions can be useful tool for HHP inactivation of microorganisms, but further studies could be performed with several other factors such as pH and water activity of the food, concentration of certain additives as well as initial number of bacteria present in the food.

Inactivation of Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, and Salmonella enterica under High Hydrostatic Pressure: A Quantitative Analysis of Existing Literature Data

High hydrostatic pressure processing (HPP) is a mild preservation technique, and its use for processing foods has been widely documented in the literature. However, very few quantitative synthesis studies have been conducted to gather and analyze bacterial inactivation data to identify the mechanisms of HPP-induced bacterial inactivation. The purpose of this study was to conduct a quantitative analysis of three-decimal reduction times (t_3δ) from a large set of existing studies to determine the main influencing factors of HPP-induced inactivation of three foodborne pathogens (Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, and Salmonella enterica) in various foods. Inactivation kinetics data sets from 1995 to 2017 were selected, and t_3δ values were first estimated by using the nonlinear Weibull model. Bayesian inference was then used within a metaregression analysis to build and test several models and submodels. The best model (lowest error and most parsimonious) was a hierarchical mixed-effects model including pressure intensity, temperature, study, pH, species, and strain as explicative variables and significant factors. Values for t_3δ and Z_P associated with inactivation under HPP were estimated for each bacterial pathogen, with their associated variability. Interstudy variability explained most of the variability in t_3δ values. Strain variability was also important and exceeded interstudy variability for S. aureus, which prevented the development of an overall model for this pathogen. Meta-analysis is not often used in food microbiology but was a valuable quantitative tool for modeling inactivation of L. monocytogenes and Salmonella in response to HPP treatment. Results of this study could be useful for refining quantitative assessment of the effects of HPP on vegetative foodborne pathogens or for more precisely designing costly and labor-intensive experiments with foodborne pathogens.

Resistance of Listeria monocytogenes to Stress Conditions Encountered in Food and Food Processing Environments

Listeria monocytogenes is a human food-borne facultative intracellular pathogen that is resistant to a wide range of stress conditions. As a consequence, L. monocytogenes is extremely difficult to control along the entire food chain from production to storage and consumption. Frequent and recent outbreaks of L. monocytogenes infections illustrate that current measures of decontamination and preservation are suboptimal to control L. monocytogenes in food. In order to develop efficient measures to prevent contamination during processing and control growth during storage of food it is crucial to understand the mechanisms utilized by L. monocytogenes to tolerate the stress conditions in food matrices and food processing environments. Food-related stress conditions encountered by L. monocytogenes along the food chain are acidity, oxidative and osmotic stress, low or high temperatures, presence of bacteriocins and other preserving additives, and stresses as a consequence of applying alternative decontamination and preservation technologies such high hydrostatic pressure, pulsed and continuous UV light, pulsed electric fields (PEF). This review is aimed at providing a summary of the current knowledge on the response of L. monocytogenes toward these stresses and the mechanisms of stress resistance employed by this important food-borne bacterium. Circumstances when L. monocytogenes cells become more sensitive or more resistant are mentioned and existence of a cross-resistance when multiple stresses are present is pointed out.

New insights on Listeria monocytogenes growth in pressurised cooked ham: A piezo-stimulation effect enhanced by organic acids during storage

The aim of the present study was to understand growth and survival responses of Listeria monocytogenes during the storage of high pressure processed (HPP) cooked ham formulated with organic acids to inhibit growth of the pathogen. Cooked ham batches were manufactured without organic acids (control), with potassium lactate (2.8% or 4%) or with potassium lactate and sodium diacetate (2.0% + 0.11% or 2.0% + 0.45%). Products were aseptically sliced and inoculated with 10⁷ cfu/g or 10² cfu/g of either L. monocytogenes CTC1034 (a meat isolate) or a cocktail of three isolates (12MOB045Lm, 12MOB089Lm and Scott A). Vacuum-packed samples with 10⁷ cfu/g were HPP at 600 MPa for 3 min, whereas samples with 10² cfu/g were not HPP. Growth or survival of L. monocytogenes was determined during subsequent storage at 8, 12 and 20 °C. Growth or survival was characterized by fitting the experimental data using the primary logistic model and the log-linear with shoulder model, respectively. Secondary models were fitted to characterize the effect of temperature on growth kinetic parameters without or with HPP. For cooked ham without organic acids, growth rates of L. monocytogenes were slightly increased by HPP and lag times were longer. Interestingly, for cooked ham with organic acids, the HPP had a significant stimulating effect on subsequent growth of L. monocytogenes (piezo-stimulation). At 20 °C, the growth rates of L. monocytogenes in cooked ham with lactate were up to 4-fold higher than those of the same product without HPP. The observed enhancement of the piezo-stimulating effect of organic acids on growth rates during storage of HPP cooked ham represents a challenge for the use of organic acids as antimicrobials in these products. A predictive model available as part of the Food Spoilage and Safety Predictor (FSSP) software seemed useful to predict growth and growth boundary of L. monocytogenes in non-pressurised cooked ham. This model was calibrated to take into account the observed piezo-stimulating effect and to predict growth of L. monocytogenes in HPP cooked ham with organic acids.

Use of mild irradiation doses to control pathogenic bacteria on meat trimmings for production of patties aiming at provoking minimal changes in quality attributes

The objectives of the present work were to assess the use of moderate doses of gamma irradiation (2 to 5 kGy) and to reduce the risk of pathogen presence without altering the quality attributes of bovine trimmings and of patties made of irradiated trimmings. Microbiological indicators (coliforms, Pseudomonas spp and mesophilic aerobic counts), physicochemical indicators (pH, color and tiobarbituric acid) and sensory changes were evaluated during storage. 5 kGy irradiation doses slightly increased off flavors in patties. Two pathogenic markers (Listeria monocytogenes and Escherichia coli O157:H7) were inoculated at high or low loads to trimming samples which were subsequently irradiated and lethality curves were obtained. Provided that using irradiation doses ≤2.5 kGy are used, reductions of 2 log CFU/g of L. monocytogenes and 5 log CFU/g of E. coli O157:H7 are expected. It seems reasonable to suppose that irradiation can be successfully employed to improve the safety of frozen trimmings when initial pathogenic bacteria burdens are not extremely high.

Analysing and modelling the growth behaviour of Listeria monocytogenes on RTE cooked meat products after a high pressure treatment at 400 MPa

Various predictive models are available for high pressure inactivation of Listeria monocytogenes in food, but currently available models do not consider the growth kinetics of surviving cells during the subsequent storage of products. Therefore, we characterised the growth of L. monocytogenes in sliced cooked meat products after a pressurization treatment. Two inoculum levels (10(7) or 10(4) CFU/g) and two physiological states before pressurization (freeze-stressed or cold-adapted) were evaluated. Samples of cooked ham and mortadella were inoculated, high pressure processed (400 MPa, 5 min) and subsequently stored at 4, 8 and 12 °C. The Logistic model with delay was used to estimate lag phase (λ) and maximum specific growth rate (μmax) values from the obtained growth curves. The effect of storage temperature on μmax and λ was modelled using the Ratkowsky square root model and the relative lag time (RLT) concept. Compared with cold-adapted cells the freeze-stressed cells were more pressure-resistant and showed a much longer lag phase during growth after the pressure treatment. Interestingly, for high-pressure inactivation and subsequent growth, the time to achieve a concentration of L. monocytogenes 100-fold (2-log) higher than the cell concentration prior to the pressure treatment was similar for the two studied physiological states of the inoculum. Two secondary models were necessary to describe the different growth behaviour of L. monocytogenes on ready-to-eat cooked ham (lean product) and mortadella (fatty product). This supported the need of a product-oriented approach to assess growth after high pressure processing. The performance of the developed predictive models for the growth of L. monocytogenes in high-pressure processed cooked ham and mortadella was evaluated by comparison with available data from the literature and by using the Acceptable Simulation Zone approach. Overall, 91% of the relative errors fell into the Acceptable Simulation Zone.

Assessment of Salmonella and Listeria monocytogenes level in ready-to-cook poultry meat: effect of various high pressure treatments and potassium lactate concentrations

The objective of this study was to develop a probabilistic model in order to determine the contamination level of Salmonella and Listeria monocytogenes in ready-to-cook poultry meat, after a high pressure (HP) treatment. The model included four steps: i) Reception of raw meat materials, mincing and mixing meat, ii) Partitioning and packaging into 200-g modified atmosphere packs, iii) High pressure treatment of the meat, and iv) Storage in chilled conditions until the end of the shelf-life. The model excluded the cooking step and consumption at consumer's home as cooking practices and heating times are highly variable. The initial contamination level of Salmonella and L. monocytogenes was determined using data collected in meat primary processing plants. The effect of HP treatment and potassium lactate on microbial reduction was assessed in minced meat, using a full factorial design with three high pressure treatments (200, 350 and 500 MPa), three holding times (2, 8 and 14 min) and two potassium lactate concentrations (0 or 1.8% w/w). The inactivation curves fitted with a Weibull model highlighted that the inactivation rate was significantly dependent on the HP treatment. From the literature, it was established that Salmonella was not able to grow in the presence of lactate, under modified atmosphere and chilled conditions whereas the growth of L. monocytogenes was determined using an existing model validated in poultry (available in Seafood Spoilage and Safety Predictor software, V. 3.1). Once implemented in the Excel add-in @Risk, the model was run using Monte Carlo simulation. The probability distribution of contamination levels was determined for various scenarios. For an average scenario such as an HP treatment of 350 MPa for 8 min, of 200 g minced meat containing 1.8% lactate (pH 6.1; aw 0.96), conditioned under 50% CO2, the prevalence rate of Salmonella and L. monocytogenes, after a 20-day storage at 6 °C was estimated to be 4.1% and 7.1%, respectively. The contamination level was low considering that the product is going to be cooked by the consumer afterwards: the 99th percentile of the distribution was equal to -2.3log cfu/g for Salmonella and 0.5log cfu/g for L. monocytogenes. More generally, the model developed here from raw material reception up to the end of the shelf-life enables to recommend combinations of HP treatment and lactate formulation to guarantee an acceptable microbial concentration before cooking.