The role of cold stress in predicting extra cardiovascular and respiratory admissions

Radiology weather forecast: A retrospective analysis of predictability of median daily polytrauma-CT occurrence based on weather data

OBJECTIVES

Resource planning is a crucial component in hospitals, particularly in radiology departments. Since weather conditions are often described to correlate with emergency room visits, we aimed to forecast the amount of polytrauma-CTs using weather information.

DESIGN

All polytrauma-CTs between 01/01/2011 and 12/31/2022 (n = 6638) were retrieved from the radiology information system. Local weather data was downloaded from meteoblue.com. The data was normalized and smoothened. Daily polytrauma-CT occurrence was stratified into below median and above median number of daily polytrauma-CTs. Logistic regression and machine learning algorithms (neural network, random forest classifier, support vector machine, gradient boosting classifier) were employed as prediction models. Data from 2012 to 2020 was used for training, data from 2021 to 2022 for validation.

RESULTS

More polytrauma-CTs were acquired in summer compared with winter months, demonstrating a seasonal change (median: 2.35; IQR 1.60-3.22 vs. 2.08; IQR 1.36-3.03; p <.001). Temperature (rs = 0.45), sunshine duration (rs = 0.38) and ultraviolet light amount (rs = 0.37) correlated positively, wind velocity (rs = -0.57) and cloudiness (rs = -0.28) correlated negatively with polytrauma-CT occurrence (all p <.001). The logistic regression model for identification of days with above median number of polytrauma-CTs achieved an accuracy of 87 % on training data from 2011 to 2020. When forecasting the years 2021-2022 an accuracy of 65 % was achieved. A neural network and a support vector machine both achieved a validation accuracy of 72 %, whereas all classifiers regarded wind velocity and ultraviolet light amount as the most important parameters.

CONCLUSION

It is possible to forecast above or below median daily number of polytrauma-CTs using weather data.

CLINCICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT

Prediction of polytrauma-CT examination volumes may be used to improve resource planning.

Evaluation of the Effects of Thermal Comfort Conditions on Cardiovascular Diseases in Amasya City, Turkey

Aim

Studies fall short when it comes to determining the relationship between thermal comfort and cardiovascular diseases. Studies examining the relationship between thermal comfort conditions and human health in Turkey, located in the transition zone of air masses at mid-latitudes, are quite limited. This is the first study conducted in Turkey that deals with thermal comfort conditions and CVDs, which is the leading cause of death. This study aimed to examine the relationship between thermal comfort conditions and CVDs of Amasya, a medium-sized exemplary Turkish city.

Subject and methods

To determine the thermal comfort conditions in the study area between 2014-2019, the physiologically equivalent temperature (PET) index obtained from the Rayman model, which uses hourly air temperature (ºC), relative humidity (%), wind speed (m/s), and cloud cover (octa) data, was used. The relationship between PET values and CVDs was determined by Pearson correlation analysis and linear regression analysis.

Results

The study indicated a negative, high, and moderate correlation between PET values and cardiovascular diseases (p < 0.001). The results show that when PET values increase by 1 ºC, patient admissions will decrease by about 104 to 108 patients (-104.737 to -108.619 units.).

Conclusion

These results can be informative and guiding for both the protection of public health and studies on climate change and human health.

Physiological Equivalent Temperature (PET) index and cardiovascular hospital admissions in Ahvaz, southwest of Iran

Evidence shows that climate change may have adverse effects on human health. The purpose of this study was to investigate the relation between Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET) and cardiovascular hospital admissions in Ahvaz. Distributed Lag Non-linear Models (DLNM) combined with quasi-Poisson regression models were used to investigate the effect of PET on hospital admissions. Low PET values (6.4 °C, 9.9 °C and 16.9 °C) in all lags, except lag 0-30, significantly decreased the risk of hospital admissions for total cardiovascular diseases, hypertension, ischemic heart diseases, and cardiovascular admissions in men, women and ≤65 years. But, low PET (6.4 °C) in lags 0 and 0-2 significantly increased the risk of hospital admissions for cerebrovascular diseases; and high PET values increased the risk of ischemic heart diseases and in men. Both cold and hot stress are involved in cardiovascular hospital admissions.

Day Temperature Difference and Aggravation of Low Urinary Tract Symptom in Benign Prostate Hypertrophy Patients in Korea: A National Health Insurance Service-National Cohort-based Study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the symptom deterioration of patients with benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) according to the difference in daily temperature.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

From the National Health Insurance Service database, we collected and analyzed data on patients with BPH in 6 major metropolitan areas in Korea between January 2008 and December 2017. We investigated the rate of emergency room visits as well as the rate of urethral catheter insertion.

RESULTS

In total, 1,446,465 patients were enrolled in this study. When the daily temperature difference was below 4°C, 28.5 patients visited the emergency room daily, while 42.2 patients visited the emergency room daily when the daily temperature difference exceeded 14°C. When the daily temperature difference was more than 14°C, about 48.0% more patients visited the emergency room than when the daily temperature difference was below 4°C. After visiting the emergency room, there were 11.9 patients who had a catheter inserted daily at the daily temperature difference below 4°C. When the daily temperature difference was more than 14°C, the number of catheter insertion cases was 17.8 patients daily, which was 49.2% higher than that of below 4°C. By time, surgery was performed most frequently within 3 months after visiting the emergency room.

CONCLUSION

Day temperature difference appear to be related to the Lower urinary tract symptom of BPH patients.

Applicability of the universal thermal climate index for predicting the outbreaks of respiratory tract infections: a mathematical modeling approach

Respiratory tract infections (RTI) are one of the most frequent reasons for medical consultations. As air temperature decreases, but also in connection with other meteorological parameters, evident seasonal fluctuations in the number of consultations for RTI can be observed. The Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) is a complex meteorological index derived from an analysis of human thermal balance that depends on air temperature, air humidity, and wind speed. Our aims were to check if this index, although never used before for that purpose, is an adequate tool for forecasting seasonal increases in RTI prevalence. This study is a retrospective analysis of patients' consultations with general practitioners in the period of 2012-2015 (453,674 records) recorded in the city of Olsztyn (Poland), which is characterized by a cold climate type (Dfb). The values of air temperature, atmospheric pressure, relative air humidity, wind speed, and UTCI were used for a statistical analysis and a mathematical analysis of curve fitting in order to determine correlations between analyzed meteorological parameters and a number of medical consultations for RTI. Analysis of the number of medical consultations for RTI revealed an evident seasonal pattern in a 4-year observation period, with a strong inverse correlation between the number of patients with RTI and the UTCI. A statistically significant increase in the number of patients with RTI appeared when the UTCI decreased, especially when it reached the classes of strong cold stress and very strong cold stress. In conclusion, the UTCI is a valuable predictive parameter for forecasting seasonal increases in RTI cases. Its decrease may initiate a seasonal increased prevalence. This effect is strongest about the 10th day following a change in the thermal climate conditions and is not continuous. A larger number of consultations for RTI after weekends and holidays (the Monday effect) may blur the results of statistical analyses.

Relationships of physiologically equivalent temperature and hospital admissions due to I30-I51 other forms of heart disease in Germany in 2009-2011

We aimed to understand relationships of the weather as biometeorological and hospital admissions due to other forms of heart disease by subtypes, which have been paid less attention, in a national setting in recent years. This is an ecological study. Ten percent of daily hospital admissions of the included hospitals (n = 1618) across Germany that were available between 1 January 2009 and 31 December 2011 (n = 5,235,600) were extracted from Statistisches Bundesamt, Germany. We identified I30-I51 other forms of heart disease by the International Classification of Diseases version 10 as the study outcomes. Daily weather data from 64 weather stations that have covered 13 German states, including air temperature, humidity, wind speed, cloud cover, radiation flux and vapour pressure, were obtained and generated into physiologically equivalent temperature (PET). Admissions due to other diseases of pericardium, nonrheumatic mitral valve disorders, nonrheumatic aortic valve disorders, cardiomyopathy, atrioventricular and left bundle-branch block, other conduction disorders, atrial fibrillation and flutter, and other cardiac arrhythmias peaked when PET was between 0 and 10 °C. Complications and ill-defined descriptions of heart disease admissions peaked at PET 0 °C. Cardiac arrest and heart failure admissions peaked when PET was between 0 and -10 °C while the rest did not vary significantly. A common drop of admissions was found when PET was above 10 °C. More medical resources could have been needed for heart health on days when PETs were <10 °C than on other days. Adaptation to such weather change for medical professionals and the general public would seem to be imperative.

Hospital admissions due to diseases of arteries and veins peaked at physiological equivalent temperature -10 to 10 °C in Germany in 2009-2011

We aimed to understand relationships of the weather as biometeorological and hospital admissions due to diseases of arteries and veins by subtypes, which have been scarcely studied, in a national setting in recent years. This is an ecological study. Ten percent of daily hospital admissions from the included hospitals (n = 1,618) across Germany that were available between 1 January 2009 and 31 December 2011 (n = 5,235,600) were extracted from Statistisches Bundesamt, Germany. We identified I70-I79 Diseases of arteries, arterioles and capillaries and I80-I89 Diseases of veins, lymphatic vessels and lymph nodes by International Classification of Diseases version 10 as the study outcomes. Daily weather data from 64 weather stations that covered 13 German states including air temperature, humidity, wind speed, cloud cover, radiation flux and vapour pressure were obtained and generated into physiologically equivalent temperature (PET). Two-way fractional-polynomial prediction was plotted with 95 % confidence intervals. For most of the subtypes from diseases of arteries and veins, hospital admissions slightly peaked in spring and dropped when PET was at 10 °C. There were no other large differences across 12 months. Admissions of peripheral vascular diseases, arterial embolism and thrombosis, phlebitis and thrombophlebitis, oesophageal varices and nonspecific lymphadenitis peaked when PET was between 0 and -10 °C, while others peaked when PET was between 0 and 10 °C. More medical resources could have been needed on days when PETs were at -10 to 10 °C than on other days. Adaptation to such weather change for health professionals and the general public would seem to be imperative.

Hospital admissions of hypertension, angina, myocardial infarction and ischemic heart disease peaked at physiologically equivalent temperature 0°C in Germany in 2009-2011

We aimed to understand and to provide evidence on relationships of the weather as biometeorological and hospital admissions due to hypertension, angina, myocardial infarction and ischemic heart disease in a national setting in recent years that might help indicate when to expect more admissions for health professionals and the general public. This is an ecological study. Ten percent of daily hospital admissions from the included hospitals (n = 1618) across Germany that were available between 1 January 2009 and 31 December 2011 (n = 5,235,600) were extracted from Statistisches Bundesamt, Germany. We identified I11 hypertensive heart disease, I13 hypertensive heart and renal disease, I15 secondary hypertension, I20 angina pectoris, I21 acute myocardial infarction and I25 chronic ischemic heart disease by International Classification of Diseases version 10 as the study outcomes. Daily weather data from 64 weather stations that covered 13 German States including air temperature, humidity, wind speed, cloud cover, radiation flux and vapour pressure were obtained and generated into physiologically equivalent temperature (PET). Two-way fractional-polynomial prediction was plotted with 95% confidence intervals. Hospital admissions of hypertension, angina, myocardial infarction, heart disease peaked in winter and early spring when PETs were around 0°C. Admissions had an apparent drop when PETs reached 10°C. More medical resources could have been needed on days when PETs were around 0°C than on other days. While adaptation to such weather change for health professionals and the general public would seem to be imperative, future research with a longitudinal monitoring would still be needed.

Cardiovascular response to thermoregulatory challenges

A growing number of extreme climate events are occurring in the setting of ongoing climate change, with an increase in both the intensity and frequency. It has been shown that ambient temperature challenges have a direct and highly varied impact on cardiovascular health. With a rapidly growing amount of literature on this issue, we aim to review the recent publications regarding the impact of cold and heat on human populations with regard to cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality/morbidity while also examining lag effects, vulnerable subgroups, and relevant mechanisms. Although the relative risk of morbidity/mortality associated with extreme temperature varied greatly across different studies, both cold and hot temperatures were associated with a positive mean excess of cardiovascular deaths or hospital admissions. Cause-specific study of CVD morbidity/mortality indicated that the sensitivity to temperature was disease-specific, with different patterns for acute and chronic ischemic heart disease. Vulnerability to temperature-related mortality was associated with some characteristics of the populations, including sex, age, location, socioeconomic condition, and comorbidities such as cardiac diseases, kidney diseases, diabetes, and hypertension. Temperature-induced damage is thought to be related to enhanced sympathetic reactivity followed by activation of the sympathetic nervous system, renin-angiotensin system, as well as dehydration and a systemic inflammatory response. Future research should focus on multidisciplinary adaptation strategies that incorporate epidemiology, climatology, indoor/building environments, energy usage, labor legislative perfection, and human thermal comfort models. Studies on the underlying mechanism by which temperature challenge induces pathophysiological response and CVD await profound and lasting investigation.

Inverted U-shape relationships of the weather as biometeorological and hospital admissions due to carcinoma in situ and benign neoplasm in Germany in 2009-2011

We aimed to understand the relationships of the weather as biometeorological and hospital admissions due to carcinoma in situ and benign neoplasms, which have been less paid attention to, in a national setting in recent years. This is an ecological study. Ten percent of daily hospital admissions from the included hospitals (n = 1618) across Germany that were available between 1 January, 2009 and 31 December, 2011 (n = 5,235,600) were extracted from Statistisches Bundesamt, Germany. We identified D00-D48 in situ neoplasms, benign neoplasms and neoplasms of uncertain or unknown behaviour by International Classification of Diseases version 10 as the study outcomes. Daily weather data from 64 weather stations that covered 13 German states including air temperature, humidity, wind speed, cloud cover, radiation flux and vapour pressure were obtained and generated into physiologically equivalent temperature (PET). For most subtypes, peaks of admissions were observed in spring and late autumn. There could be four groups of phenomenon among these admissions. To be specific, D06, D16, D21, D24-25, D35 and D39 peaked when PET was at 0 °C. D46 peaked when PET was at 5-10 °C. D03, D04 and D33 had linear relationships. Other admissions peaked when PET was between 0 and 5 °C. All admissions were in common with a drop when PET reached 10 °C or higher. More medical resources could have been needed on days when PETs were at 0-10 °C than on other days. Adaptation to such weather change for medical professionals and the general public would seem to be imperative.

What is the effect of the weather on trauma workload? A systematic review of the literature

BACKGROUND

Hospital admission rates for a number of conditions have been linked to variations in the weather. It is well established that trauma workload displays significant seasonal variation. A reliable predictive model might enable targeting of high-risk groups for intervention and planning of hospital staff levels. To our knowledge there have been no systematic reviews of the literature on the relationship between weather and trauma workload, and predictive models have thus far been informed by the results of single studies.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review of bibliographic databases and reference lists up to June 2014 to identify primary research papers assessing the effect of specified weather conditions including temperature, rainfall, snow, fog, hail, humidity and wind speed on trauma workload, defined as admission to hospital, fracture or a Road Traffic Accident (RTA) resulting in a seriously injured casualty or fatality.

RESULTS

11,083 papers were found through electronic and reference search. 83 full papers were assessed for eligibility. 28 met inclusion criteria and were included in the final review; 6 of these related to the effect of the weather on trauma admissions, one to ambulance call out for trauma, 13 to fracture rate and 8 to RTAs. Increased temperature is positively correlated with trauma admissions. The rate of distal radius fractures is more sensitive to adverse weather than the rate of hip fractures. Paediatric trauma, both in respect of trauma admissions and fracture rate, is more sensitive to the weather than adult trauma. Adverse weather influences both RTA frequency and severity, but the nature of the relationship is dependent upon the timecourse of the weather event and the population studied. Important methodological differences between studies limit the value of the existing literature in building consensus for a generalisable predictive model.

CONCLUSIONS

Weather conditions may have a substantial effect on trauma workload independent of the effects of seasonal variation; the population studied and timecourse of weather events appear critical in determining this relationship. Methodological differences between studies limit the validity of conclusions drawn from analysis of the literature, and we identify a number of areas that future research might address.