Multimorbidity and acute heart failure in internal medicine

Explainable machine learning for predicting 30-day readmission in acute heart failure patients

We aimed to develop a machine-learning based predictive model to identify 30-day readmission risk in Acute heart failure (AHF) patients. In this study 2232 patients hospitalized with AHF were included. The variance inflation factor value and 5-fold cross-validation were used to select vital clinical variables. Five machine learning algorithms with good performance were applied to develop models, and the discrimination ability was comprehensively evaluated by sensitivity, specificity, and area under the ROC curve (AUC). Prediction results were illustrated by SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values. Finally, the XGBoost model performs optimally: the greatest AUC of 0.763 (0.703-0.824), highest sensitivity of 0.660, and high accuracy of 0.709. This study developed an optimal XGBoost model to predict the risk of 30-day unplanned readmission for AHF patients, which showed more significant performance compared with traditional logistic regression (LR) model.

Global Comparison of Readmission Rates for Patients With Heart Failure

BACKGROUND

Heart failure (HF) readmission rates are low in some jurisdictions. However, international comparisons are lacking and could serve as a foundation for identifying regional patient management strategies that could be shared to improve outcomes.

OBJECTIVES

This study sought to summarize 30-day and 1-year all-cause readmission and mortality rates of hospitalized HF patients across countries and to explore potential differences in rates globally.

METHODS

We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis using MEDLINE, Embase, and CENTRAL for observational reports on hospitalized adult HF patients at risk for readmission or mortality published between January 2010 and March 2021. We conducted a meta-analysis of proportions using a random-effects model, and sources of heterogeneity were evaluated with meta-regression.

RESULTS

In total, 24 papers reporting on 30-day and 23 papers on 1-year readmission were included. Of the 1.5 million individuals at risk, 13.2% (95% CI: 10.5%-16.1%) were readmitted within 30 days and 35.7% (95% CI: 27.1%-44.9%) within 1 year. A total of 33 papers reported on 30-day and 45 papers on 1-year mortality. Of the 1.5 million individuals hospitalized for HF, 7.6% (95% CI: 6.1%-9.3%) died within 30 days and 23.3% (95% CI: 20.8%-25.9%) died within 1 year. Substantial variation in risk across countries was unexplained by countries' gross domestic product, proportion of gross domestic product spent on health care, and Gini coefficient.

CONCLUSIONS

Globally, hospitalized HF patients exhibit high rates of readmission and mortality, and the variability in readmission rates was not explained by health care expenditure, risk of mortality, or comorbidities.

Predictive risk factors for death in elderly patients after hospitalization for acute heart failure in an internal medicine unit

To determine the predictive factors of mortality after hospitalization for acute heart failure (AHF) in an internal medicine department. Retrospective observational analysis conducted on 164 patients hospitalized for AHF in 2016-2017. Demographic, clinical and biological characteristics were assessed during hospitalization. The primary endpoint was the occurrence of all-cause death. Multivariate analysis was performed using the Cox model adjusted for age and renal function. The study population was mostly female (n = 106, 64.6%), elderly (82.9 years ± 10.0), with a preserved LVEF (86%). Mean Charlson comorbidity index was 6.5 ± 2.5. After a median follow-up of 17.5 months (IQR 6-38), 109 patients (65%) had died with a median time to death of 14 months (IQR 3-29). In univariate analysis, patients who died were significantly older, had lower BMI and renal function, and higher CCI and NT-proBNP levels (median of 4944 ng/l [2370-14403] versus 1740 ng/l [1119-3503], p < 0.001). In multivariate analysis, risk factors for death were lower BMI (HR 0.69, CI [0.53-0.90], p = 0.005), lower albuminemia (HR 0.77 [0.63-0.94], p = 0.009), higher ferritinemia (HR 1.38 [1.08-1.76], p = 0.010), higher uricemia (HR 1.28 [1.02-1.59], p = 0.030), higher NT-proBNP (HR 2.46 [1.65-3.67], p < 0.001) and longer hospital stay (HR 1.25 [1.05-1.49] p = 0.013). In elderly multimorbid patients, AHF prognosis appears to be influenced by nutritional criteria, including lower BMI, hypoalbuminemia, and hyperuricemia (independently of renal function). These results underline the importance of nutritional status, especially as therapeutic options are available. This consideration paves the way for further research in this field.

Palliative Care Needs and Clinical Features Related to Short-Term Mortality in Patients Enrolled in a Heart Failure Unit

(1) Background: Heart failure (HF) is a chronic and complex pathology requiring continuous patient management due to clinical instability, associated comorbidity, and extensive pharmacological treatment. Its unpredictable course makes the advanced stages challenging to recognize and raises the need for palliative care. This study aims to identify palliative care needs in HF patients and describe clinical features related to short-term mortality. (2) Methods: A descriptive, observational, cross-sectional, and retrospective study was carried out in an HF unit of a Spanish tertiary hospital. Patients’ socio-demographic and clinical data were collected from clinical records, and different instruments were used to establish mortality risks and patients’ needs for palliative care. Subsequently, univariate and bivariate descriptive analyses were performed. A binary logistic regression model helped to determine variables that could influence mortality 12 months after admission to the Unit. (3) Results: The studied population, sixty-five percent women, had an average age of 83.27 years. Among other clinical characteristics predominated preserved ejection fraction (pEF) and dyspnea NYHA (New York Heart Association) class II. The most prevalent comorbidities were hypertension and coronary heart disease. Forty-nine percent had a low–intermediate mortality risk in the following year, according to the PROFUND index. The NECPAL CCOMS-ICO© instrument identified subjects who meet the criteria for palliative care. This predictive model identified NECPAL CCOMS-ICO© results, using beta-blockers (BB) or AIIRA (Angiotensin II receptor antagonists) and low glomerular filtration rate (GFR) as explanatory variables of patients’ mortality in the following year. (4) Conclusions: The analysis of the characteristics of the population with HF allows us to identify patients in need of palliative care. The NECPAL CCOMS-ICO© instrument and the PROFUND have helped identify the characteristics of people with HF who would benefit from palliative management.

Impact of Subclinical Congestion on Outcome of Patients Undergoing Mitral Valve Surgery

Since risk assessment prior to cardiac surgery is based on proven but partly unsatisfactory scores, the need for novel tools in preoperative risk assessment taking into account cardiac decompensation is obvious. Even subclinical chronic heart failure is accompanied by an increase in plasma volume. This increase is illustrated by means of a plasma volume score (PVS), calculated using weight, gender and hematocrit. A retrospective analysis of 187 consecutive patients with impaired left ventricular function undergoing mitral valve surgery at a single centre between 2013 and 2016 was conducted. Relative preoperative PVS was generated by subtracting the ideal from actual calculated plasma volume. The study population was divided into two cohorts using a relative PVS score > 3.1 as cut-off. Patients with PVS > 3.1 had a significantly higher need for reoperation for bleeding/tamponade (5.5% vs. 16.7%; p = 0.016) and other non-cardiac causes (9.4% vs. 21.7%; p = 0.022). In-hospital as well as 6-month, 1-year and 5-year mortality was significantly increased in PVS > 3.1 (6.3% vs. 18.3%; p = 0.013; 9.4% vs. 23.3%; p = 0.011; 11.5% vs. 23.3%; p = 0.026; 18.1% vs. 33.3%; p = 0.018). Elevated PVS above the defined cut-off used to quantify subclinical congestion was linked to significantly worse outcome after mitral valve surgery and therefore could be a useful addition to current preoperative risk stratification.

Impact of Acute Hemoglobin Falls in Heart Failure Patients: A Population Study

Aims: This study assessed the impact of acute hemoglobin (Hb) falls in heart failure (HF) patients. Methods: HF patients with repeated Hb values over time were included. Falls in Hb greater than 30% were considered to represent an acute episode of anemia and the risk of hospitalization and all-cause mortality after the first episode was assessed. Results: In total, 45,437 HF patients (54.9% female, mean age 74.3 years) during a follow-up average of 2.9 years were analyzed. A total of 2892 (6.4%) patients had one episode of Hb falls, 139 (0.3%) had more than one episode, and 342 (0.8%) had concomitant acute kidney injury (AKI). Acute heart failure occurred in 4673 (10.3%) patients, representing 3.6/100 HF patients/year. The risk of hospitalization increased with one episode (Hazard Ratio = 1.30, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.19-1.43), two or more episodes (HR = 1.59, 95% CI 1.14-2.23, and concurrent AKI (HR = 1.61, 95% CI 1.27-2.03). A total of 10,490 patients have died, representing 8.1/100 HF patients/year. The risk of mortality was HR = 2.20 (95% CI 2.06-2.35) for one episode, HR = 3.14 (95% CI 2.48-3.97) for two or more episodes, and HR = 3.20 (95% CI 2.73-3.75) with AKI. In the two or more episodes and AKI groups, Hb levels at the baseline were significantly lower (10.2-11.4 g/dL) than in the no episodes group (12.8 g/dL), and a higher and significant mortality in these subgroups was observed. Conclusions: Hb falls in heart failure patients identified those with a worse prognosis requiring a more careful evaluation and follow-up.

The impact of subclinical congestion on the outcome of patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation

BACKGROUND

We investigated the impact of an elevated plasma volume status (PVS) in patients undergoing TAVI on early clinical safety and mortality and assessed the prognostic utility of PVS for outcome prediction.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We retrospectively calculated the PVS in 652 patients undergoing TAVI between 2009 and 2018 at two centres. They were then categorized into two groups depending on their preoperative PVS (PVS ≤-4; n = 257 vs PVS>-4; n = 379). Relative PVS was derived by subtracting calculated ideal (iPVS = c × weight) from actual plasma volume (aPVS = (1 - haematocrit) × (a + (b × weight in kg)).

RESULTS

The need for renal replacement therapy (1 (0.4%) vs 17 (4.5%); P = .001), re-operation for noncardiac reasons (9 (3.5%) vs 32 (8.4%); P = .003), re-operation for bleeding (9 (3.5%) vs 27 (7.1%); P = .037) and major bleeding (14 (5.4%) vs 37 (9.8%); P = .033) were significantly higher in patients with a PVS>-4. The composite 30-day early safety endpoint (234 (91.1%) vs 314 (82.8%); P = .002) confirms that an increased preoperative PVS is associated with a worse overall outcome after TAVI.

CONCLUSIONS

An elevated PVS (>-4) as a marker for congestion is associated with significantly worse outcome after TAVI and therefore should be incorporated in preprocedural risk stratification.

Acute kidney injury in heart failure: a population study

Aims

The objective of the present study is to assess the prognostic value of acute kidney injury (AKI) in the evolution of patients with heart failure (HF) using real‐world data.

Methods and results

Patients with a diagnosis of HF and with serial measurements of renal function collected throughout the study period were included. Estimated glomerular filtration rate (GFR) was calculated with the CKD‐EPI (Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration). AKI was defined when a sudden drop in creatinine with posterior recovery was recorded. According to the Risk, Injury, Failure, Loss, and End‐Stage Renal Disease (RIFLE) scale, AKI severity was graded in three categories: risk [1.5‐fold increase in serum creatinine (sCr)], injury (2.0‐fold increase in sCr), and failure (3.0‐fold increase in sCr or sCr > 4.0 mg/dL). AKI incidence and risk of hospitalization and mortality after the first episode were calculated by adjusting for potential confounders. A total of 30 529 patients with HF were included. During an average follow‐up of 3.2 years, 5294 AKI episodes in 3970 patients (13.0%) and incidence of 3.3/100 HF patients/year were recorded. One episode was observed in 3161 (10.4%), two in 537 (1.8%), and three or more in 272 (0.9%). They were more frequent in women with diabetes and hypertension. The incidence increases across the GFR levels (Stages 1 to 4: risk 7.6%, 6.8%, 11.3%, and 12.5%; injury 2.1%, 2.0%, 3.3%, and 5.5%; and failure 0.9%, 0.6%. 1.4%, and 8.0%). A total of 3817 patients with acute HF admission were recorded during the follow‐up, with incidence of 38.4/100 HF patients/year, 3101 (81.2%) patients without AKI, 545 (14.3%) patients with one episode, and 171 (4.5%) patients with two or more. The number of AKI episodes [one hazard ratio (HR) 1.05 (0.98–1.13); two or more HR 2.01 (1.79–2.25)] and severity [risk HR 1.05 (0.97–1.04); injury HR 1.41 (1.24–1.60); and failure HR 1.90 (1.64–2.20)] increases the risk of hospitalization. A total of 10 560 deaths were recorded, with incidence of 9.3/100 HF patients/year, 8951 (33.7%) of subjects without AKI episodes, 1180 (11.17%) of subjects with one episode, and 429 (4.06%) with two or more episodes. The number of episodes [one HR 1.05 (0.98–1.13); two or more HR 2.01 (1.79–2.25)] and severity [risk 1.05 confidence interval (CI) (0.97–1.14), injury 1.41 (CI 1.24–1.60), and failure 1.90 (CI 1.64–2.20)] increases mortality risk.

Conclusions

The study demonstrated the worse prognostic value of sudden renal function decline in HF patients and pointed to those with more future risk who require review of treatment and closer follow‐up.

Significant and constant increase in hospitalization due to heart failure in Spain over 15 year period

BACKGROUND

To examine trends in the incidence, characteristics, and in-hospital outcomes of heart failure (HF) hospitalizations from 2001 to 2015 in Spain.

METHODS

Using the Spanish National Hospital Discharge Database (SNHDD) we selected admissions with a primary or secondary diagnosis of HF. The primary end points were trends in the incidence of hospitalizations and in-hospital mortality (IHM). Trends with primary and secondary diagnosis of HF were evaluated separately.

RESULTS

The incidence of HF coding increased significantly from 466.16 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in 2001-03 to 780.4 in 2013-15 (p < .001). Age increased over time (76.33 ± 10.92 years in 2001-03 vs. 79.4 ± 10.78 years in 2013-15; p < .001). We found a decrease in the percentage of women over the study period (53.07% vs. 52%; p < .001). We detected a significant increase in comorbidity according to the Charlson Comorbidity Index over time (mean 2.17 ± 0.98 in 2001-03 vs. 2.46 ± 1.04 in 2013-15). The most common associated comorbidities were atrial fibrillation (42.23%), hypertension (38.87%) and type 2 diabetes (34.3%). For the total time period, IHM was 12.79%. IHM decreased significantly over time from 13.47% in 2001-03 to 12.30% in 2013-15. Patients with HF coded as a secondary diagnosis have 66% higher risk of dying in the hospital that those with HF coded as a primary diagnosis.

CONCLUSIONS

This research shows an increase of hospitalizations due to HF in Spain, particularly in patients with HF as a secondary diagnosis. Advance age and comorbidity in acute HF has increased in the recent years. However, IHM is decreasing while readmissions remain stable.

Non-cardiac comorbidities in heart failure with reduced, mid-range and preserved ejection fraction

BACKGROUND

Comorbidities play a major role in heart failure. Whether prevalence and prognostic importance of comorbidities differ between heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF), mid-range (HFmrEF) or reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) is unknown.

METHODS

Patients from index (n = 2516) and validation cohort (n = 1738) of The BIOlogy Study to TAilored Treatment in Chronic Heart Failure (BIOSTAT-CHF) were pooled. Eight non-cardiac comorbidities were assessed; diabetes mellitus, thyroid dysfunction, obesity, anaemia, chronic kidney disease (CKD, estimated glomerular filtration rate < 60 mL/min/1.73 m²), COPD, stroke and peripheral arterial disease. Patients were classified based on ejection fraction. The association of each comorbidity with quality of life (QoL), all-cause mortality and hospitalisation was evaluated.

RESULTS

Patients with complete comorbidity data were included (n = 3499). Most prevalent comorbidity was CKD (50%). All comorbidities showed the highest prevalence in HFpEF, except for stroke. Prevalences of HFmrEF were in between the other entities. COPD was the comorbidity associated with the greatest reduction in QoL. In HFrEF, almost all were associated with a significant reduction in QoL, while in HFpEF only CKD and obesity were associated with a reduction. Most comorbidities in HFrEF were associated with an increased mortality risk, while in HFpEF only CKD, anaemia and COPD were associated with higher mortality risks.

CONCLUSIONS

The highest prevalence of comorbidities was seen in patients with HFpEF. Overall, comorbidities were associated with a lower QoL, but this was more pronounced in patients with HFrEF. Most comorbidities were associated with higher mortality risks, although the associations with diabetes were only present in patients with HFrEF.

Short-term outcomes of heart failure patients with reduced and preserved ejection fraction after acute decompensation according to the final destination after emergency department care

AIMS

To compare short-term outcomes after an episode of acute heart failure (AHF) in patients with reduced and preserved ejection fractions (HFrEF, < 40%; and HFpEF, > 49%; respectively) according to their destinations after emergency department (ED) care.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This secondary analysis of the EAHFE Registry (consecutive AHF patients diagnosed in 41 Spanish EDs) investigated 30-day all-cause mortality, in-hospital all-cause mortality, prolonged hospitalisation (> 7 days), and 30-day post-discharge ED revisit due to AHF, all-cause death, and combined endpoint (ED revisit/death) in 5829 patients with echocardiographically documented HFrEF and HfpEF (HFrEF/HFpEF: 1,442/4,387). Adjusted ratios were calculated for patients admitted to internal medicine (IM), short stay unit (SSU), and discharged from the ED without hospitalisation (DEDWH) and compared with those admitted to cardiology. For HFrEF, the only significant differences were lower in-hospital mortality (OR = 0.26; 95% CI 0.08-0.81; p = 0.021) and prolonged hospitalisation (OR = 0.07; 95% CI 0.04-0.13; p < 0.001) related to SSU admission. For HFpEF, IM admission had a higher post-discharge 30-day mortality (HR = 1.85; 95% CI 1.05-3.25; p = 0.033) and combined endpoint (HR = 1.24; 95% CI 1.01-1.64; p = 0.044); SSU admission had a lower in-hospital mortality (OR = 0.43; 95% CI 0.23-0.80; p = 0.008) and prolonged hospitalisation (OR = 0.17; 95% CI 0.13-0.23; p < 0.001) but a higher post-discharge 30-day combined endpoint (HR = 1.29; 95% CI 1.01-1.64; p = 0.041); and DEDDWH had a lower 30-day mortality (HR = 0.46; 95% CI 0.28-0.75; p = 0.002) but higher post-discharge ED revisit (HR = 1.62; 95% CI 1.31-2.00; p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

While HFrEF patients have similar short-term outcomes irrespective of the destination after ED care for an AHF episode, HFpEF patients present worse short-term outcomes when managed by non-cardiology departments, despite adjustment for different clinical patient profiles. Reasons for this heterogeneous specialty-related performance should be investigated.

Early in-hospital variation of red blood cell distribution width predicts mortality in patients with acute heart failure

BACKGROUND

Some studies showed that the value of red blood cell distribution width (RDW) at admission may predict clinical outcomes in patients with acutely decompensated heart failure (ADHF). Therefore, this study was planned to investigate whether in-hospital variations of RDW may also predict mortality in this condition.

METHODS

The final study population consisted of 588 patients admitted to the local Emergency Department (ED), who were hospitalized for ADHF. The RDW was measured at ED admission and after 48h and 96h of hospital stay. In-hospital variations from admission value, expressed as absolute variation (DeltaRDW) or percent variation (Delta%RDW), were then correlated with 30- and 60-day mortality.

RESULTS

Overall, 87 (14.8%) and 118 (20.1%) patients with ADHF died at 30 or 60days of follow-up. Delta%RDW after 96h of hospital stay independently predicted 30-day mortality (odds ratio, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.07-1.18). An increase >1% of Delta%RDW after 96h of hospital stay independently predicted both 30-day (odds ratio, 2.86; 95% CI, 1.67-4.97) and 60-day (odds ratio, 3.06; 95% CI, 1.89-4.96) mortality. A similar trend was observed for DeltaRDW, since an increase after 96h of hospital stay was associated with a nearly 4-fold higher 30-day mortality (odds ratio, 3.65; 95% CI, 2.02-6.15).

CONCLUSION

Despite it remains unclear whether RDW is a real risk factor or an epiphenomenon in ADHF, these results suggest that more aggressive management may be advisable in ADHF patients with increasing anisocytosis during the first days of hospitalization.