Prenatal exposure to lead in France: Cord-blood levels and associated factors: Results from the perinatal component of the French Longitudinal Study since Childhood (Elfe)

Lead in umbilical cord blood and associated factors in Casablanca Morocco: A preliminary results

BACKGROUND

Lead is the most common toxic metal to which Moroccans are exposed. Given the susceptibility of the fetus to lead, it is crucial to assess prenatal lead exposure. However, in Morocco, no study has assessed prenatal exposure to lead. The main goals of the present study are to determine lead concentration in umbilical cord blood and identify risk factors for prenatal lead exposure in Casablanca, Morocco.

METHODS

To achieve these purposes, 87 cord blood lead samples were collected from mothers-baby pairs from January to December 2019. Indeed, a structured questionnaire was used to collect socio-demographic characteristics, obstetric data, leisure, cultural habits, and environmental information. Cord blood lead level was analyzed by inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry.

RESULTS

The median lead concentration was 4.902 µg/dl with a minimum and maximum of 0.833 µg/dl and 23.593 µg/dl, respectively. A high proportion of the newborns (65.52 %) had cord blood lead levels above the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) allowable threshold limit (3.5 µg/dl). Statistical analysis was performed to assess the association between blood levels and the above factors. Lead levels in cord blood were significantly associated with the maternal educational level, anemia history, delivery mode, passive smoking during pregnancy as well as with the frequency of consumption of tea.

CONCLUSION

This study provides the first data on lead levels in newborns. Cord blood lead levels were high in the majority of the participants, these results reinforce the need to establish health surveillance programs in Morocco.

Maternal diet quality during pregnancy and biomarkers of potentially toxic trace element exposure: Data from the ELFE cohort

The contribution of the diet to potentially toxic trace element exposure in pregnancy has been rarely addressed. The objective of the present study was to determine the association between the maternal diet during pregnancy and biomarkers of exposure for arsenic (As), mercury (Hg) and lead (Pb) at delivery. As was assessed in maternal urine, Hg in maternal hair, and Pb in cord blood, as a proxy for in utero exposure. Based on 2995 women from the ELFE nationwide birth cohort, higher scores for dietary patterns considered healthy were associated with higher concentrations of As and Hg in maternal matrices. Levels of cord blood Pb were inconsistently associated with dietary patterns considered healthy, and lower with a dietary pattern driven by milk and breakfast cereals. Lower levels of Hg were associated with higher Western dietary pattern scores. In conclusion, higher levels of maternal urinary As and hair Hg are associated with diets considered as "Healthy", while cord blood Pb was not strongly correlated with dietary exposure.

Exposure of the general French population to metals and metalloids in 2014-2016: Results from the Esteban study

BACKGROUND

The purpose of the Esteban study was to describe levels of various biomarkers of exposure to several environmental pollutants, including metals and metalloids, among the French population. This paper describes the distribution of concentrations of 28 metals and metalloids in two different populations, and estimates the main determinants of exposure to total arsenic, the sum of inorganic arsenic (iAs) and its two metabolites monomethylarsonic acid (MMA) and dimethylarsinic acid (DMA), cadmium, chromium, copper, mercury and nickel.

METHODS

Esteban is a cross-sectional study conducted between 2014 and 2016 on a random sample of 2503 adults (18-74 years old) and 1104 children (6-17 years old) from the general population. The data collected included biological samples (blood, hair, and urines), socio-demographic characteristics, environmental and occupational exposure, and information on dietary factors and lifestyle. The geometric mean and percentiles of the distribution were estimated for each metal. Multivariate analyses were performed to identify the determinants of exposure using a generalized linear model.

RESULTS

Only four metals had a quantification rate below 90% in adults (beryllium, iridium, palladium, and platinum), and three metals in children (beryllium, iridium, and platinum). The concentrations of total arsenic, cadmium, chromium and mercury were higher than those found in most international studies. The determinants significantly associated with exposure were mainly diet and smoking.

CONCLUSIONS

Esteban provided a nationwide description of 28 metal and metalloid exposure levels for adults (some never measured before) and for the first time in children. The study results highlighted widespread exposure to several metals and metalloids. These results could be used to advocate public health decisions for continued efforts to reduce harmful exposure to toxic metals. The Reference values (RV95) built from Esteban could also be used to support future government strategies.

Insights into the mechanism of transcription factors in Pb2+-induced apoptosis

The health risks associated with exposure to heavy metals, such as Pb2+, are increasingly concerning the public. Pb2+ can cause significant harm to the human body through oxidative stress, autophagy, inflammation, and DNA damage, disrupting cellular homeostasis and ultimately leading to cell death. Among these mechanisms, apoptosis is considered crucial. It has been confirmed that transcription factors play a central role as mediators during the apoptosis process. Interestingly, these transcription factors have different effects on apoptosis depending on the concentration and duration of Pb2+ exposure. In this article, we systematically summarize the significant roles of several transcription factors in Pb2+-induced apoptosis. This information provides insights into therapeutic strategies and prognostic biomarkers for diseases related to Pb2+ exposure.

Mollusc and crustacean consumption in the first 1000 days: a scoping review

Mollusc and crustacean consumption in the first 1000 d may improve maternal and child health by providing essential nutrients. However, in some contexts, molluscs and crustaceans have been associated with allergies and environmental contamination, potentially leading to adverse health and development outcomes. It is unclear whether the health benefits of consuming molluscs and crustaceans, collectively classified as shellfish in nutrition, are outweighed by the potential risks to pregnant women and children. We conducted a scoping review (PROSPERO: CRD42022320454) in PubMed, Scopus and EBSCO Global Health of articles published between January 2000 and March 2022 that assessed shellfish consumption during pregnancy, lactation or childhood (0-2 years) in relation to maternal health, child health or child development. A total of forty-six articles were included in this review. Overall, shellfish consumption was associated with higher biomarkers of environmental contaminants, with mercury being the most studied and having the strongest evidence base. The limited research on nutritional biomarker status shows an association between shellfish consumption and iodine status. Preterm birth was not associated with shellfish consumption, but newborn anthropometry showed mixed results, with several studies reporting lower birth weight with higher shellfish consumption. The few studies that examined child development and maternal health outcomes reported no significant associations. This review revealed trade-off health risks and benefits with inclusion of molluscs and crustaceans in the dietary patterns of mothers and young children. More research is needed to understand how these aquatic animal-source foods may be safely consumed and leveraged for improving human nutrition.

Temporal transition trends of cord blood lead levels in various human development index countries and in the Taipei metropolitan area

Since low-level lead exposure is still of concern for neonates, it is worth further characterizing the temporal transition trends of cord blood lead levels (CBLLs) globally and locally in Taipei, Taiwan, after the cessation of leaded gasoline use. A literature review on CBLLs around the world was performed by searching three databanks, i.e., PubMed, Google Scholar and Web of Science, with the search keywords "cord blood" combined with "lead" or "Pb" for studies published from 1975 to May 2021. In total, 66 articles were included. Linear regressions for the reciprocal of sample size weighed CBLLs against calendar year presented a high r² value (0.722) for the very high Human Development Index (HDI) countries and a moderate r² value (0.308) for the combined high and medium HDI countries. The predicted CBLLs in 2030 and 2040 were 6.92 (95% CI: 6.02-7.81) μg/L and 5.85 (95% CI: 5.04-6.66) μg/L, respectively, for the very high HDI countries and 13.10 (95% CI: 7.12-19.09) μg/L and 10.63 (95% CI: 5.37-15.89) μg/L, respectively, for the combined high and medium HDI countries. To characterize the CBLL transitions in the Great Taipei metropolitan area, data from five studies conducted from 1985 to 2018 were employed. Although the results of the early four studies indicated that the Great Taipei metropolitan area did not reach the pace in CBLL reduction among the very high HDI countries, the CBLLs of the latest study during 2016-2018 were pretty low (8.1 ± 4.5 μg/L), approximately 3 years in advance of the very high HDI countries as one group to reach this low CBLL. In conclusion, further effective reduction in environmental lead exposure is challenging and must be based on the efforts from the aspects reflected by the HDI index compositions, i.e., economics, education and health, mostly implying health disparity and inequality.

Sex-specific associations between cord blood lead and neurodevelopment in early life: The mother-child cohort (Shanghai, China)

The extent to which neurodevelopment is affected by prenatal lead exposure has not been conclusive. In addition, studies on the effects of sex on these relationships are inconsistent. The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of cord blood lead on neurodevelopment in children within sex subgroups. A total of 275 mother-child pairs from the Shanghai mother-child cohort were included. Umbilical cord blood lead was measured using graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrophotometry. The Bayley Scales for Infant Development-III (BSID-III) was used to measure the neurodevelopment of infants at the age of 18 ± 1.5 months. The median and interquartile range of cord blood lead levels in the total participants, male, and female children were 44.0 (24.5) μg/L, 44.0 (24.3) μg/L, and 46.0 (24.0) μg/L, respectively. According to multiple linear regression, cord blood lead concentrations showed a negative association with fine motor scores in all models associated with female children (β = -1.5; 95%confidence interval: -2.6, -0.4). However, prenatal lead levels were not associated with any of the BSID-III scores in male children. In addition, cord serum DHA was found positively related to fine motor scores in male children. Our findings suggest that prenatal lead exposure could lead to decreased motor function, although this phenomenon was only observed in female children. And DHA may be a protective factor against lead exposure in boys. Thus, further studies are needed to investigate the associations between prenatal lead exposure and neurobehavioral development, as well as the mechanism of sex differences.

Estimation of blood lead levels in the French population using two complementary approaches: Esteban (2014-2016) as part of the human biomonitoring program and the national surveillance system for childhood lead poisoning (2015-2018)

BACKGROUND

Used widely for centuries, lead is a common environmental pollutant. As a cumulative toxic, its presence in the body is always evidence of exposure, and health effects occur without threshold. Though regulated by European directives, lead requires close monitoring due to its environmental persistence and toxicity.

METHODS

The first data source was the French surveillance system for monitoring childhood lead poisoning, which records the screening results of children (-18 years), providing data on their temporal and geographical distribution, characteristics, and risk factors. The second data source was Esteban, a cross-sectional study conducted in 2014-2016 on a random sample of the French population as part of the human biomonitoring program. The Esteban lead study concerns 904 children (6-17 years) and 999 adults (18-74 years), providing data on biological samples, sociodemographic characteristics, occupational exposure, environmental and dietary factors.

RESULTS

The surveillance system highlighted that lead poisoning affected 10% of children screened between 2015 and 2018. The main risk factor remains housing. Esteban confirmed this observation, finding a general mean of blood lead level (BLL) at 9.9 and 18.5 μg/L for children and adults, respectively. In children, parents' occupation increased BLLs. In adults, the greatest exposure factors were smoking, age, place of residence, alcohol, bread-based products, and homegrown livestock products. In both, drinking tap water and year of housing construction increased BLLs.

CONCLUSIONS

The surveillance system showed a high number of children with lead poisoning despite the implementation of prevention measures, which mainly concern lead paints in old and degraded homes. To help identify children at risk, healthcare providers need to know about exposure from housing and the emerging sources identified in the Esteban survey. Despite lower BLLs, the well-known risk factors of lead exposure persist, meaning prevention efforts must continue in order to limit their impact on the population.

Association between prenatal exposure to metal mixtures and early childhood allergic diseases

The association between prenatal exposure to the metal mixture and allergic diseases is poorly understood. We aimed to explore the individual effect and the combined effect of prenatal exposure to vanadium (V), chromium (Cr), nickel (Ni), arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), thallium (Tl), and lead (Pb) on early childhood allergic diseases based on a birth cohort study that included 628 mother-infant pairs. Metals were measured in maternal urine samples collected in the first, second, and third trimesters. Children were prospectively followed up at age 4 years to collect information on allergic rhinitis, wheeze, and eczema status. By applying logistic regression models, weighted quantile sum (WQS) regression, and Bayesian kernel machine regression (BKMR), the different statistical analyses revealed urinary metals were only associated with early childhood allergic rhinitis. The averaged prenatal As exposure was significantly associated with an increased OR for allergic rhinitis in both single-metal (OR = 2.04, 95% CI: 1.35, 3.07) and multiple-metal logistic regression models (OR = 1.78, 95% CI: 1.15, 2.78). The WQS index of mixed metal exposure was positively associated with allergic rhinitis (OR = 1.66, 95% CI: 1.26, 2.19), and As and Tl had the largest weights in the WQS index (weighted 0.51 and 0.29, respectively). The BKMR analysis also showed the overall effect of the metal mixture was significantly associated with allergic rhinitis when all the metals were at their 55th percentile or above, compared to their 50th percentile. The effect of As and Tl on the risk of allergic rhinitis was significant when all of the other metals were fixed at the specific percentiles. Our findings suggest that prenatal co-exposure to higher levels of the seven metals increases the risk of allergic rhinitis in children, and As and Tl may contribute most to the combined risk.

Lead (Pb) and neurodevelopment: A review on exposure and biomarkers of effect (BDNF, HDL) and susceptibility

Lead (Pb) is a ubiquitous environmental pollutant and a potent toxic compound. Humans are exposed to Pb through inhalation, ingestion, and skin contact via food, water, tobacco smoke, air, dust, and soil. Pb accumulates in bones, brain, liver and kidney. Fetal exposure occurs via transplacental transmission. The most critical health effects are developmental neurotoxicity in infants and cardiovascular effects and nephrotoxicity in adults. Pb exposure has been steadily decreasing over the past decades, but there are few recent exposure data from the general European population; moreover, no safe Pb limit has been set. Sensitive biomarkers of exposure, effect and susceptibility, that reliably and timely indicate Pb-associated toxicity are required to assess human exposure-health relationships in a situation of low to moderate exposure. Therefore, a systematic literature review based on PubMed entries published before July 2019 that addressed Pb exposure and biomarkers of effect and susceptibility, neurodevelopmental toxicity, epigenetic modifications, and transcriptomics was conducted. Finally included were 58 original papers on Pb exposure and 17 studies on biomarkers. The biomarkers that are linked to Pb exposure and neurodevelopment were grouped into effect biomarkers (serum brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) and serum/saliva cortisol), susceptibility markers (epigenetic markers and gene sequence variants) and other biomarkers (serum high-density lipoprotein (HDL), maternal iron (Fe) and calcium (Ca) status). Serum BDNF and plasma HDL are potential candidates to be further validated as effect markers for routine use in HBM studies of Pb, complemented by markers of Fe and Ca status to also address nutritional interactions related to neurodevelopmental disorders. For several markers, a causal relationship with Pb-induced neurodevelopmental toxicity is likely. Results on BDNF are discussed in relation to Adverse Outcome Pathway (AOP) 13 ("Chronic binding of antagonist to N-methyl-D-aspartate receptors (NMDARs) during brain development induces impairment of learning and memory abilities") of the AOP-Wiki. Further studies are needed to validate sensitive, reliable, and timely effect biomarkers, especially for low to moderate Pb exposure scenarios.

Association of prenatal factors and cord blood lead levels in China: A nested cohort cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Lead exposure all over the world has gradually declined. As fetuses are more prone to lead exposure, even to low levels of lead exposure, it is important to monitor blood lead levels (BLLs) in pregnancy.

METHODS

We obtained data on BLLs in the third trimester of pregnancy from medical records and measured cord BLLs obtained from 121 mother-child pairs in Shenyang, China from September 2019 to February 2020. We also estimated relationships between socio-demographic, lifestyle and dietary factors during pregnancy as well as cord BLLs to identify the source of lead exposure during pregnancy. BLLs was estimated by atomic absorption spectrometry through graphite furnace ionization techniques. The data which obtained by questionnaires during pregnancy included maternal sociodemographic, lifestyle, dietary factors. We have established three multivariate logistic regression models in which the dichotomous BLLs was used as the dependent variable (cord BLLs ≥20 μg/L vs <20 μg/L).

RESULTS

The median and geometric mean of cord BLLs were 22.90 μg/L, 21.88 μg/L and BLLs in the third trimester of pregnancy were 25.29 μg/L, 24.66 μg/L, respectively. BLLs showed significant correlations between cord and the third trimester of pregnancy (r = 0.277, P = 0.012). Pregnant women who had not been exposed to passive smoking had lower OR (95 %) [0.43(0.19-0.94)] for cord BLLs ≥20 μg/L than pregnant women who had. Intake of docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) during third trimester of pregnancy presented an OR (95 %) [0.23(0.08-0.61)] for cord BLLs ≥20 μg/L. Consuming more whole grains (>3 times/week) and beverage (≥1 times/week) showed an OR (95%CI) for cord BLLs ≥20 μg/L of 0.09(0.02-0.53) and 0.19(0.06-0.69), respectively.

CONCLUSION

This study showed the cord BLLs of Chinese are still higher than most developed countries. Passive smoking is a risk factor for cord BLLs ≥20 μg/L and supplement of DHA, whole grains and beverage consumption during pregnancy may act as a beneficial factor against having cord BLLs ≥20 μg/L.

Assessment of a Screening Questionnaire to Identify Exposure to Lead in Pregnant Women

Lead readily crosses the placenta and displays adverse effects on birth outcomes and neurodevelopment. Systematic identification of the risk of exposure during pregnancy is essential but rarely performed, probably due to hospital staff’s workload and their lack of awareness. We aimed to evaluate the relevance of a questionnaire to screen pregnant women for lead exposure. A cross-sectional, multicentre study was carried out on a population of 792 pregnant women from February 2018 to May 2020. A total of 596 women had a blood lead test: 68.5% had blood lead levels below 10 μg/L. The estimated prevalence above 25 µg/L was 4% (95% confidence interval (CI) [2.6–5.9]) and 1.3% had levels above 50 µg/L (95% CI [0.6–2.6]). Multivariate analysis showed that three risk factors significantly increased the probability of blood lead levels above 25 µg/L: the use of traditional cosmetics (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 3.90; 95% CI [1.65–9.21]; p = 0.002), degraded old housing (aOR: 2.67; 95% CI [1.19–6.038]; p = 0.018), and (marginally) eating bread more than twice a day (aOR: 2.40; 95% CI [0.96–6.11]; p = 0.060). Our study reveals that a three-question tool can be used to quickly screen for the risk of lead exposure in our population and to trigger lead blood tests and special vigilance during pregnancy follow-up.

Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of the Effect of Nutrients on Blood Lead Levels in Pregnancy

OBJECTIVE

To synthesize experimental and nonexperimental research on the relationship between nutrients and blood lead levels in pregnant women. We also performed a meta-analysis on a subgroup of studies on calcium and blood lead levels.

DATA SOURCES

PubMed, Embase, and CINAHL databases were searched in July 2019.

STUDY SELECTION

We included articles published in English in any year that reported the results of experimental or observational studies on the effect of nutrients on blood lead levels in pregnancy.

DATA EXTRACTION

Three nurse reviewers extracted data and appraised the studies using tools from the Joanna Briggs Institute.

DATA SYNTHESIS AND META-ANALYSIS

We included 28 studies from 16 countries. Study authors examined 14 distinct nutrients, with calcium being the most frequent. The metaregression included nine analyses of the effect of calcium on blood lead levels and showed a small but significant inverse relationship. The quality of evidence for the effect of calcium on lead levels was high. Eleven analyses were related to the effect of iron on blood lead levels. The quality of evidence was high, and we found mostly negative associations between iron intake and blood lead levels. The quality of evidence for the remaining nutrients was moderate, with few significant findings.

CONCLUSION

Targeted nutritional interventions may be beneficial for pregnant women with current lead exposure or a history of elevated lead levels, particularly those with calcium- or iron-deficient diets. More rigorously designed studies are needed in this area.

Where are we at with lead? Current levels, time trend, and determinants of blood lead in New Zealand children and adults

AIMS

A national biomonitoring survey was conducted in 2014-2016, to determine current blood lead levels (BLL) in New Zealand children and adults and identify determinants of BLL.

METHODS

Blood samples were provided by 191 children (age 5-18) and 304 adults (age 20-65) and analysed for BLL using inductively coupled mass spectroscopy. Linear regression on log-transformed BLL was used to assess associations between BLL and demographic and lifestyle factors collected via questionnaire.

RESULTS

The geometric mean (GM) BLL was 0.86 μg/dl (95%CI 0.80-0.92) for children and 1.31 μg/dl (1.23-1.39) for adults, representing a 90% reduction in BLL over the past 36 years. For children, shellfish consumption was associated with 20% higher BLL. Adult BLLs were positively associated with age, beer consumption, spirits consumption, having roof water as the home's water supply, and having worked in glass manufacturing. Determinants of reduced BLL were tofu and canned food consumption. For women, menopause was associated with 34% higher BLL.

CONCLUSIONS

Although significant reductions in New Zealanders' BLL have been achieved in the past decades, this study identified several additional opportunities to reduce further background exposure to lead. In particular, consideration needs to be given to reducing lead levels in New Zealand roof water supplies.

Oral exposure to lead for Japanese children and pregnant women, estimated using duplicate food portions and house dust analyses

BACKGROUND

Lead is a toxic metal abundant in the environment. Consumption of food contaminated at low levels of lead, especially by small children and pregnant women, raises a health concern.

METHODS

Duplicated food portions and drinking water were collected over 3 days from 88 children and 87 pregnant women in Shimotsuke, Tochigi, Japan. Participants were recruited in this study between January 2014 and October 2015. Dust was also collected from their homes. Lead concentrations were measured and consequent oral lead exposure levels were estimated for this population at high risk to environmental toxicants. Lead concentrations of peripheral and cord blood, taken from children and pregnant women, and were also analyzed.

RESULTS

Lead concentrations in food, drinking water, and house dust were low in general. Oral lead exposure to lead was higher for children (Mean ± SEM; 5.21 ± 0.30 μg/kg BW/week) than in pregnant women (1.47 ± 0.13 μg/kg BW/week). Food and house dust were main sources of lead contamination, but the contribution of house dust widely varied. Means ± SEM of peripheral and cord blood lead concentrations were 0.69 ± 0.04 μg/dL and 0.54 ± 0.05 μg/dL, respectively for pregnant women and 1.30 ± 0.07 μg/dL (peripheral only) in children. We detect no correlation between smoking situations and blood lead concentration in pregnant women.

CONCLUSION

We conclude that oral lead exposure levels for Japanese children and pregnant women were generally low, with higher concentrations and exposure for children than for pregnant women. More efforts are necessary to clarify the sources of lead contamination and reduce lead exposure of the population at high risk even in Japan.

Blood mercury, lead, cadmium, manganese and selenium levels in pregnant women and their determinants: the Japan Environment and Children's Study (JECS)

The Japan Environment and Children's Study (JECS) is a birth-cohort study of 100,000 mother-child dyads that aims to investigate the effect of the environment on child health and development. Mercury (Hg), lead (Pb), cadmium (Cd), manganese (Mn) and selenium (Se) are considered to be important co-exposures when examining the effect of other chemical substances on child development. The levels of these elements in the blood of 20,000 randomly selected mid/late-term pregnant women from the whole JECS cohort were analysed using inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry. The median concentrations (interquartile ranges) for Pb, Hg, Cd, Mn and Se were 0.63 (0.51-0.78) µg dl^-1, 3.83 (2.70-5.43) µg l^-1, 0.70 (0.52-0.95) µg l^-1, 16.1 (13.2-19.6) µg l^-1 and 178 (165-192) µg l^-1, respectively. Hg and Se correlated positively with each other (Spearman's ρ = 0.287), as did Pb and Cd (ρ = 0.239) and Cd and Mn (ρ = 0.267). The blood Pb levels decreased by 5-10-fold over the past 25 years. The main predictors of the blood levels of each element were fish consumption for Hg, maternal age and non-alcoholic beverage consumption for Pb, maternal age and smoking for Cd, gestational age at sampling for Mn and serum protein levels for Se. These results revealed the historical trends and current predictors of the blood levels of these elements in pregnant Japanese women.

Using Birth Cohort Data to Estimate Prenatal Chemical Exposures for All Births around the New Bedford Harbor Superfund Site in Massachusetts

BACKGROUND

Children born near New Bedford, Massachusetts, have been prenatally exposed to multiple environmental chemicals, in part due to an older housing stock, maternal diet, and proximity to the New Bedford Harbor (NBH) Superfund site. Chemical exposure measures are not available for all births, limiting epidemiologic investigations and potential interventions.

OBJECTIVE

We linked biomonitoring data from the New Bedford Cohort (NBC) and birth record data to predict prenatal exposures for all contemporaneous area births.

METHODS

We used prenatal exposure biomarker data from the NBC, a population-based cohort of 788 mother-infant pairs born during 1993–1998 to mothers living near the NBH, linked to their corresponding Massachusetts birth record data, to build predictive models for cord serum polychlorinated biphenyls (expressed as a sum, [Formula: see text]), [Formula: see text] (DDE), hexachlorobenzene (HCB), cord blood lead (Pb), and maternal hair mercury (Hg). We applied the best fit models (highest pseudo [Formula: see text]), with multivariable smooths of continuous variables, to predict exposure biomarkers for all 10,270 births during 1993–1998 around the NBH. We used 10-fold cross validation to validate the exposure models and the bootstrap method to characterize sampling variability in the exposure predictions.

RESULTS

The 10-fold cross-validated [Formula: see text] for the [Formula: see text], DDE, HCB, Pb, and Hg exposure models were 0.54, 0.40, 0.34, 0.46, and 0.40, respectively. For each exposure model, multivariable smooths of continuous variables improved the fit compared with linear models. Other variables with significant effects on exposure estimates were paternal education, maternal race/ethnicity, and maternal ancestry. The resulting exposure predictions for all births had variability consistent with the NBC measured exposures.

CONCLUSIONS

Predictive models using multivariable smoothing explained reasonable amounts of variance in prenatal exposure biomarkers. Our analyses suggest that prenatal chemical exposures can be predicted for all contemporaneous births in the same geographic area by modeling available biomarker data for a subset of that population. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP4849.