Towards understanding the epidemiology of Neisseria meningitidis in the African meningitis belt: a multi-disciplinary overview

Meningitis in Niger Republic amidst COVID-19: current issues and novel recommendations

Amidst coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), there has been a misplaced priority on meningitis in the Niger Republic, thus refocusing resources and attention away from the continuing meningitis campaign in the Niger Republic. The over-strained state of public health resources and staff has also led to decreased surveillance, postponed diagnoses, and constrained immunization efforts in Niger Republic. This review aims to bridge the gaps regarding meningitis amid COVID-19 in Niger Republic and offer recommendations to government to mitigate meningitis in the country, with the hope of finding a permanent solution to this debilitating disease. The authors reviewed 45 past and present pieces of literature on meningitis and COVID-19 from 2013 to 2023 in well-renowned scientific databases such as PubMed, ResearchGate, Google Scholar, African Journals Online, Medline, and Embase. Since 2015, Niger Republic has experienced multiple meningitis epidemics that have resulted in 20, 789 cases and 1, 369 deaths [a case fatality rate (CFR) of 6.6%]. A total of 231 cases of meningitis were reported from 1 November 2021 to 31 January 2022. And recently, 559 cases of meningitis (of which 111 are laboratory confirmed), including 18 deaths (overall CFR 3.2%), occurred in the Zinder region, southeast of Niger Republic, from 1 November 2022 to 27 January 2023. Meningitis remains a public health concern in the world, especially in Niger Republic, which could lead to serious long-term complications. Therefore, adequate and novel measures and therapeutic actions should be implemented by the Niger Government to lessen the burden of the disease in the country.

Socioepidemiological macro-determinants associated with the cumulative incidence of bacterial meningitis: A focus on the African Meningitis Belt

Background

Bacterial meningitis (BM) is a public health challenge as it is associated with high lethality and neurological sequelae. Worldwide, most cases are registered in the African Meningitis Belt (AMB). The role of particular socioepidemiological features is essential for understanding disease dynamics and optimizing policy-making.

Objective

To identify socioepidemiological macro-determinants that contribute to explaining the differences in BM incidence between AMB and the rest of Africa.

Methods

Country-level ecologic study based on the cumulative incidence estimates of the Global Burden of Disease study and reports of the MenAfriNet Consortium. Data about relevant socioepidemiological features were extracted from international sources. Multivariate regression models were implemented to define variables associated with the classification of African countries within the AMB and the incidence of BM worldwide.

Results

Cumulative incidences at the AMB sub-regions were 111.93 (west), 87.23 (central), 65.10 (east), and 42.47 (north) per 100,000 population. A pattern of common origin with continuous exposition and seasonality of cases was observed. Socio-epidemiological determinants contributing to differentiating the AMB from the rest of Africa were household occupancy (OR 3.17 CI 95% 1.09-9.22, p = 0.034) and malaria incidence (OR 1.01 CI 95% 1.00-1.02, p = 0.016). BM cumulative incidence worldwide was additionally associated with temperature and gross national income per capita.

Conclusion

Socioeconomic and climate conditions are macro-determinants associated with BM cumulative incidence. Multilevel designs are required to confirm these findings.

An overview of bacterial meningitis epidemics in Africa from 1928 to 2018 with a focus on epidemics "outside-the-belt"

Background

Bacterial meningitis occurs worldwide but Africa remains the most affected continent, especially in the "Meningitis belt" that extends from Senegal to Ethiopia. Three main bacteria are responsible for causing bacterial meningitis, i.e., N. meningitidis (Nm), S. pneumoniae and H. influenzae type b. Among Nm, serogroup A used to be responsible for up to 80 to 85% of meningococcal meningitis cases in Africa. Since 2000, other Nm serogroups including W, X and C have also been responsible for causing epidemics. This overview aims to describe the main patterns of meningitis disease cases and pathogens from 1928 to 2018 in Africa with a special focus on disease conditions “out-of-the-belt” area that is still usually unexplored. Based on basic spatio-temporal methods, and a 90-years database of reported suspected meningitis cases and death from the World Health Organization, we used both geographic information system and spatio-temporal statistics to identify the major localizations of meningitis epidemics over this period in Africa.

Results

Bacterial meningitis extends today outside its historical limits of the meningitis belt. Since the introduction of MenAfrivac vaccine in 2010, there has been a dramatic decrease in NmA cases while other pathogen species and Nm variants including NmW, NmC and Streptococcus pneumoniae have become more prevalent reflecting a greater diversity of bacterial strains causing meningitis epidemics in Africa today.

Conclusion

Bacterial meningitis remains a major public health problem in Africa today. Formerly concentrated in the region of the meningitis belt with Sub-Saharan and Sudanian environmental conditions, the disease extends now outside these historical limits to reach more forested regions in the central parts of the continent. With global environmental changes and massive vaccination targeting a unique serogroup, an epidemiological transition of bacterial meningitis is ongoing, requiring both a better consideration of the etiological nature of the responsible agents and of their proximal and distal determinants.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-021-06724-1.

Modeling Optimal Laboratory Testing Strategies for Bacterial Meningitis Surveillance in Africa

Since 2010, the introduction of an effective serogroup A meningococcal conjugate vaccine has led to the near-elimination of invasive Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A disease in Africa’s meningitis belt. However, a significant burden of disease and epidemics due to other bacterial meningitis pathogens remain in the region. High-quality surveillance data with laboratory confirmation is important to monitor circulating bacterial meningitis pathogens and design appropriate interventions, but complete testing of all reported cases is often infeasible. Here, we use case-based surveillance data from 5 countries in the meningitis belt to determine how accurately estimates of the distribution of causative pathogens would represent the true distribution under different laboratory testing strategies. Detailed case-based surveillance data was collected by the MenAfriNet surveillance consortium in up to 3 seasons from participating districts in 5 countries. For each unique country-season pair, we simulated the accuracy of laboratory surveillance by repeatedly drawing subsets of tested cases and calculating the margin of error of the estimated proportion of cases caused by each pathogen (the greatest pathogen-specific absolute error in proportions between the subset and the full set of cases). Across the 12 country-season pairs analyzed, the 95% credible intervals around estimates of the proportion of cases caused by each pathogen had median widths of ±0.13, ±0.07, and ±0.05, respectively, when random samples of 25%, 50%, and 75% of cases were selected for testing. The level of geographic stratification in the sampling process did not meaningfully affect accuracy estimates. These findings can inform testing thresholds for laboratory surveillance programs in the meningitis belt.

Knowledge, beliefs and practices regarding prevention of bacterial meningitis in Burkina Faso, 5 years after MenAfriVac mass campaigns

Background

To adapt communications concerning vaccine prevention, we studied knowledge, beliefs and practices around meningitis risk and prevention in a young adult population in Burkina Faso in 2016, 5 years after the MenAfriVac® mass campaign and one year before the vaccine’s inclusion in the infant immunization schedule.

Methods

In a representative sample of the population aged 15 to 33 years (N = 220) in Bobo-Dioulasso, Burkina Faso, study nurses administered a standardized paper questionnaire consisting of predominantly open questions, collecting information on meningitis risk factors and prevention, and on exposure to dry air and kitchen fire smoke. We identified themes and analyzed their frequency. We created a meningitis knowledge score (range 0 to 4) based on pre-defined best responses and analyzed the determinants of knowledge score levels ≥2 (basic score) and ≥3 (high score) using multivariate logistic regression.

Results

Biomedically supported facts and good practices were known by the majority of participants (eg vaccine prevention, 84.5%). Younger women aged 15–20 years had a higher frequency of low scores <2 (17.0%) compared to older women aged 21–33 years (6.3%) and men of both age groups (3.8%). Junior secondary School attendance explained the differences between the two groups of women, the gender gap for the older, but not the young women, and explained score differences among young women. Local understandings and practices for risk and prevention were commonly reported and used (risk from unripe mango consumption and prevention through nasal application of shea nut butter).

Discussion

This study shows a gender gap in knowledge of meningitis risk and prevention, largely due to education-level inequalities. Women below 21 years had particularly low levels of knowledge and may need interventions outside schools and perinatal care. Our study suggests a strong adherence to local understandings of and practices around meningitis risk and prevention, which should be taken into account by vaccination promotion.

Epidemiology and antibiotic resistance profile of bacterial meningitis in Morocco from 2015 to 2018

Over a 4-year study period from 2015 to 2018, altogether 183 isolates of bacterial meningitis were collected from 12 hospitals covering the entire Moroccan territory. Neisseria meningitidis represented 58.5%, Streptococcus pneumoniae 35.5%, and Haemophilus influenzae type b 6%. H. influenzae type b mainly affected 5-year-olds and unvaccinated adults. N. meningitidis serogroup B represented 90.7% followed by serogroup W135 with 6.5%. Decreased susceptibility to penicillin G (DSPG) for all isolates accounted for 15.7%, with 11.6% being resistant to penicillin G (PG) and 4.1% decreased susceptibility. Cumulative results of all strains showed 2.7% decreased susceptibility to amoxicillin and 3.3% resistant, 2.2% of isolates were resistant to third-generation cephalosporin and 2.2% were decreased susceptible, 5.5% were resistant to chloramphenicol and 2.7% were resistant to rifampin. The frequency of DSPG observed in our study is more common in S. pneumoniae than in N. meningitidis (P < 0.05). These isolates have been found to be highly susceptible to antibiotics used for treatment and prophylaxis chemotherapy and the observed resistance remains rare. The impact of introduction of conjugate vaccines against H. influenzae type b and S. pneumoniae (PCVs) is an advantage in reducing meningitis cases due to these two species.

Full Molecular Typing of Neisseria meningitidis Directly from Clinical Specimens for Outbreak Investigation

Neisseria meningitidis is a leading cause of bacterial meningitis and sepsis worldwide and an occasional cause of meningococcal urethritis. When isolates are unavailable for surveillance or outbreak investigations, molecular characterization of pathogens needs to be performed directly from clinical specimens, such as cerebrospinal fluid (CSF), blood, or urine. However, genome sequencing of specimens is challenging because of low bacterial and high human DNA abundances. We developed selective whole-genome amplification (SWGA), an isothermal multiple-displacement amplification-based method, to efficiently enrich, sequence, and de novo assemble N. meningitidis DNA from clinical specimens with low bacterial loads. SWGA was validated with 12 CSF specimens from invasive meningococcal disease cases and 12 urine specimens from meningococcal urethritis cases. SWGA increased the mean proportion of N. meningitidis reads by 2 to 3 orders of magnitude, enabling identification of at least 90% of the 1,605 N. meningitidis core genome loci for 50% of the specimens. The validated method was used to investigate two meningitis outbreaks recently reported in Togo and Burkina Faso. Twenty-seven specimens with low bacterial loads were processed by SWGA before sequencing, and 12 of 27 were successfully assembled to obtain the full molecular typing and vaccine antigen profile of the N. meningitidis pathogen, thus enabling thorough characterization of outbreaks. This method is particularly important for enhancing molecular surveillance in regions with low culture rates. SWGA produces enough reads for phylogenetic and allelic analysis at a low cost. More importantly, the procedure can be extended to enrich other important human bacterial pathogens.

The environmental drivers of bacterial meningitis epidemics in the Democratic Republic of Congo, central Africa

INTRODUCTION

Bacterial meningitis still constitutes an important threat in Africa. In the meningitis belt, a clear seasonal pattern in the incidence of meningococcal disease during the dry season has been previously correlated with several environmental parameters like dust and sand particles as well as the Harmattan winds. In parallel, the evidence of seasonality in meningitis dynamics and its environmental variables remain poorly studied outside the meningitis belt. This study explores several environmental factors associated with meningitis cases in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), central Africa, outside the meningitis belt area.

METHODS

Non-parametric Kruskal-Wallis' tests were used to establish the difference between the different health zones, climate and vegetation types in relation to both the number of cases and attack rates for the period 2000-2018. The relationships between the number of meningitis cases for the different health zones and environmental and socio-economical parameters collected were modeled using different generalized linear (GLMs) and generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs), and different error structure in the different models, i.e., Poisson, binomial negative, zero-inflated binomial negative and more elaborated multi-hierarchical zero-inflated binomial negative models, with randomization of certain parameters or factors (health zones, vegetation and climate types). Comparing the different statistical models, the model with the smallest Akaike's information criterion (AIC) were selected as the best ones. 515 different health zones from 26 distinct provinces were considered for the construction of the different GLM and GLMM models.

RESULTS

Non-parametric bivariate statistics showed that there were more meningitis cases in urban health zones than in rural conditions (χ2 = 6.910, p-value = 0.009), in areas dominated by savannah landscape than in areas with dense forest or forest in mountainous areas (χ2 = 15.185, p-value = 0.001), and with no significant difference between climate types (χ2 = 1.211, p-value = 0,449). Additionally, no significant difference was observed for attack rate between the two types of heath zones (χ2 = 0.982, p-value = 0.322). Conversely, strong differences in attack rate values were obtained for vegetation types (χ2 = 13.627, p-value = 0,001) and climate types (χ2 = 13.627, p-value = 0,001). This work demonstrates that, all other parameters kept constant, an urban health zone located at high latitude and longitude eastwards, located at low-altitude like in valley ecosystems predominantly covered by savannah biome, with a humid tropical climate are at higher risk for the development of meningitis. In addition, the regions with mean range temperature and a population with a low index of economic well-being (IEW) constitute the perfect conditions for the development of meningitis in DRC.

CONCLUSION

In a context of global environmental change, particularly climate change, our findings tend to show that an interplay of different environmental and socio-economic drivers are important to consider in the epidemiology of bacterial meningitis epidemics in DRC. This information is important to help improving meningitis control strategies in a large country located outside of the so-called meningitis belt.

Next generation rapid diagnostic tests for meningitis diagnosis

Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) are increasingly recognized as valuable, transformative tools for the diagnosis of infectious diseases. Although there are a variety of meningitis RDTs currently available, certain product features restrict their use to specific levels of care and settings. For this reason, the development of meningitis RDTs for use at all levels of care, including those in low-resource settings, was included in the "Defeating Meningitis by 2030" roadmap. Here we address the limitations of available meningitis RDTs and present test options and specifications to consider when developing the next generation of meningitis RDTs.

Meningococcal Meningitis Outbreaks in the African Meningitis Belt After Meningococcal Serogroup A Conjugate Vaccine Introduction, 2011-2017

BACKGROUND

In 2010-2017, meningococcal serogroup A conjugate vaccine (MACV) was introduced in 21 African meningitis belt countries. Neisseria meningitidis A epidemics have been eliminated here; however, non-A serogroup epidemics continue.

METHODS

We reviewed epidemiological and laboratory World Health Organization data after MACV introduction in 20 countries. Information from the International Coordinating Group documented reactive vaccination.

RESULTS

In 2011-2017, 17 outbreaks were reported (31 786 suspected cases from 8 countries, 1-6 outbreaks/year). Outbreaks were of 18-14 542 cases in 113 districts (median 3 districts/outbreak). The most affected countries were Nigeria (17 375 cases) and Niger (9343 cases). Cumulative average attack rates per outbreak were 37-203 cases/100 000 population (median 112). Serogroup C accounted for 11 outbreaks and W for 6. The median proportion of laboratory confirmed cases was 20%. Reactive vaccination was conducted during 14 outbreaks (5.7 million people vaccinated, median response time 36 days).

CONCLUSION

Outbreaks due to non-A serogroup meningococci continue to be a significant burden in this region. Until an affordable multivalent conjugate vaccine becomes available, the need for timely reactive vaccination and an emergency vaccine stockpile remains high. Countries must continue to strengthen detection, confirmation, and timeliness of outbreak control measures.

The Strengthening of Laboratory Systems in the Meningitis Belt to Improve Meningitis Surveillance, 2008-2018: A Partners' Perspective

Laboratories play critical roles in bacterial meningitis disease surveillance in the African meningitis belt, where the highest global burden of meningitis exists. Reinforcement of laboratory capacity ensures rapid detection of meningitis cases and outbreaks and a public health response that is timely, specific, and appropriate. Since 2008, joint efforts to strengthen laboratory capacity by multiple partners, including MenAfriNet, beginning in 2014, have been made in countries within and beyond the meningitis belt. Over the course of 10 years, national reference laboratories were supported in 5 strategically targeted areas: specimen transport systems, laboratory procurement systems, laboratory diagnosis, quality management, and laboratory workforce with substantial gains made in each of these areas. To support the initiative to eliminate meningitis by 2030, continued efforts are needed to strengthen laboratory systems.

Understanding the spatio-temporal dynamics of meningitis epidemics outside the belt: the case of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)

BACKGROUND

Bacterial meningitis remains a major threat for the population of the meningitis belt. Between 2004 and 2009, in the countries of this belt, more than 200,000 people were infected with a 10% mortality rate. However, for almost 20 years, important meningitis epidemics are also reported outside this belt. Research is still very poorly developed in this part of the word like in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), which experiences recurrent epidemics. This article describes for the first time the spatio-temporal patterns of meningitis cases and epidemics in DRC, in order to provide new insights for surveillance and control measures.

METHODS

Based on weekly suspected cases of meningitis (2000-2012), we used time-series analyses to explore the spatio-temporal dynamics of the disease. We also used both geographic information systems and geostatistics to identify spatial clusters of cases. Both using conventional statistics and the Cleveland's algorithm for decomposition into general trend, seasonal and residuals, we searched for the existence of seasonality.

RESULTS

We observed a low rate of biological confirmation of cases (11%) using soluble antigens search, culture and PCR. The main strains found are Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae and Neisseria meningitidis (A and C) serogroups. We identified 8 distinct spatial clusters, located in the northeastern and southeastern part of DRC, and in the capital city province, Kinshasa. A low seasonal trend was observed with higher incidence and attack rate of meningitis during the dry season, with a high heterogeneity in seasonal patterns occurring across the different districts and regions of DRC.

CONCLUSION

Despite challenges related to completeness of data reporting, meningitis dynamics shows weak seasonality in DRC. This tends to suggest that climatic, environmental factors might be less preponderant in shaping seasonal patterns in central Africa. The characterization of 8 distinct clusters of meningitis could be used for a better sentinel meningitis surveillance and optimization of vaccine strategy in DRC. Improving biological monitoring of suspected cases should be a priority for future eco-epidemiological studies to better understand the emergence and spread of meningitis pathogens, and the potential ecological, environmental drivers of this disease.

Antibody Persistence at the Population Level 5 Years After Mass Vaccination With Meningococcal Serogroup A Conjugate Vaccine (PsA-TT) in Burkina Faso: Need for a Booster Campaign?

Background

In Burkina Faso, serogroup A meningococcal (NmA) conjugate vaccine (PsA-TT, MenAfriVac) was introduced through a mass campaign in children and adults in December 2010. Similar to a serological survey in 2011, we followed population-level antibody persistence for 5 years after the campaign and estimated time of return to previously-published pre-vaccination levels.

Methods

We conducted 2 cross-sectional surveys in 2013 and early 2016, including representative samples (N = 600) of the general population of Bobo-Dioulasso, Burkina Faso. Serum bactericidal antibody titers (rabbit complement) were measured against NmA reference strain F8236 (SBA-ref), NmA strain 3125 (SBA-3125), and NmA-specific immunoglobulin G (IgG) concentrations.

Results

During the 2016 survey, in different age groups between 6 and 29 years, the relative changes in geometric means compared to 2011 values were greater among younger age groups. They were between -87% and -43% for SBA-ref; -99% and -78% for SBA-3125; and -89% and -63% for IgG. In linear extrapolation of age-specific geometric means from 2013 to 2016, among children aged 1-4 years at the time of the PsA-TT campaign, a return to pre-vaccination levels should be expected after 12, 8, and 6 years, respectively, according to SBA-ref, SBA-3125, and IgG. Among older individuals, complete return to baseline is expected at the earliest after 11 years (SBA-ref and SBA-3125) or 9 years (IgG).

Conclusions

Based on SBA-3125, a booster campaign after 8 years would be required to sustain direct immune protection for children aged 1-4 years during the PsA-TT campaign. Antibodies persisted longer in older age groups.

Epidemics of meningococcal meningitis in Northern Nigeria focus on preventive measures

Throughout the past 200 years, epidemics of meningococcal infection have been noted in Northern Nigeria. Consequently, control of meningococcal meningitis is one of the major priorities in infection control in the region. The proportions of cases of invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) caused by the five common serotypes (A, B, C, Y, and W135) vary among different regions and within specific geographic locations. Hence, effective and comprehensive disease control can only be achieved with the use of vaccines that target all of these disease-causing serotypes. Vaccines for the majority of meningococcal serogroups implicated in causing IMD are available in developed countries and have proven effective in reducing the disease incidence. However, the overall success of a vaccine depends on its coverage of the at-risk population as well as safety and effectiveness of the vaccine at preventing disease. Therefore, maximizing the global impact of these vaccines requires having them made available in regions with the high incidence of the disease, like Northern Nigeria, where rates of meningococcal disease are several times higher than in industrialized nations, and the reported mortality is usually high.

Analysis of a meningococcal meningitis outbreak in Niger - potential effectiveness of reactive prophylaxis

Background

Seasonal epidemics of bacterial meningitis in the African Meningitis Belt carry a high burden of disease and mortality. Reactive mass vaccination is used as a control measure during epidemics, but the time taken to gain immunity from the vaccine reduces the flexibility and effectiveness of these campaigns. Targeted reactive antibiotic prophylaxis could be used to supplement reactive mass vaccination and further reduce the incidence of meningitis, and the potential effectiveness and efficiency of these strategies should be explored.

Methods and findings

Data from an outbreak of meningococcal meningitis in Niger, caused primarily by Neisseria meningitidis serogroup C, is used to estimate clustering of meningitis cases at the household and village level. In addition, reactive antibiotic prophylaxis and reactive vaccination strategies are simulated to estimate their potential effectiveness and efficiency, with a focus on the threshold and spatial unit used to declare an epidemic and initiate the intervention.

There is village-level clustering of suspected meningitis cases after an epidemic has been declared in a health area. Risk of suspected meningitis among household contacts of a suspected meningitis case is no higher than among members of the same village. Village-wide antibiotic prophylaxis can target subsequent cases in villages: across of range of parameters pertaining to how the intervention is performed, up to 220/672 suspected cases during the season are potentially preventable. On the other hand, household prophylaxis targets very few cases. In general, the village-wide strategy is not very sensitive to the method used to declare an epidemic. Finally, village-wide antibiotic prophylaxis is potentially more efficient than mass vaccination of all individuals at the beginning of the season, and than the equivalent reactive vaccination strategy.

Conclusions

Village-wide antibiotic prophylaxis should be considered and tested further as a response against outbreaks of meningococcal meningitis in the Meningitis Belt, as a supplement to reactive mass vaccination.

Until a low-cost polyvalent conjugate meningococcal vaccine becomes available in the African Meningitis Belt, reactive strategies to control meningitis epidemics should be considered and tested, and refined in order to maximise effectiveness. A recent cluster-randomised trial conducted in Niger showed promising evidence for the effectiveness of a village-wide reactive antibiotic prophylaxis intervention. We used data from a meningitis outbreak in Niger to explore the potential effectiveness and efficiency of this and other strategies when deployed on a wider scale, allowing us to compare different strategies without recourse to additional randomised trials. This study provided further evidence that village-wide antibiotic prophylaxis targets subsequent cases in villages, and showed that the intervention remains effective whether it is initiated early in the season (targeting more cases during the season) or later (when clustering of cases by village is strongest). For this outbreak, reactive village-wide antibiotic prophylaxis would have been more potentially efficient than mass vaccination at the beginning of the season, implying that targeted prophylaxis could supplement reactive mass vaccination. Many authors have developed models for vaccination strategies to reduce the burden of meningitis in sub-Saharan Africa; our results add to this literature by considering antibiotic prophylaxis as an intervention.

Compartmental models for seasonal hyperendemic bacterial meningitis in the African meningitis belt

The pathophysiological mechanisms underlying the seasonal dynamic and epidemic occurrence of bacterial meningitis in the African meningitis belt remain unknown. Regular seasonality (seasonal hyperendemicity) is observed for both meningococcal and pneumococcal meningitis and understanding this is critical for better prevention and modelling. The two principal hypotheses for hyperendemicity during the dry season imply (1) an increased risk of invasive disease given asymptomatic carriage of meningococci and pneumococci; or (2) an increased transmission of these bacteria from carriers and ill individuals. In this study, we formulated three compartmental deterministic models of seasonal hyperendemicity, featuring one (model1-'inv' or model2-'transm'), or a combination (model3-'inv-transm') of the two hypotheses. We parameterised the models based on current knowledge on meningococcal and pneumococcal biology and pathophysiology. We compared the three models' performance in reproducing weekly incidences of suspected cases of acute bacterial meningitis reported by health centres in Burkina Faso during 2004-2010, through the meningitis surveillance system. The three models performed well (coefficient of determination R2, 0.72, 0.86 and 0.87, respectively). Model2-'transm' and model3-'inv-transm' better captured the amplitude of the seasonal incidence. However, model2-'transm' required a higher constant invasion rate for a similar average baseline transmission rate. The results suggest that a combination of seasonal changes of the risk of invasive disease and carriage transmission is involved in the hyperendemic seasonality of bacterial meningitis in the African meningitis belt. Consequently, both interventions reducing the risk of nasopharyngeal invasion and the bacteria transmission, especially during the dry season are believed to be needed to limit the recurrent seasonality of bacterial meningitis in the meningitis belt.

Atmospheric Dust, Early Cases, and Localized Meningitis Epidemics in the African Meningitis Belt: An Analysis Using High Spatial Resolution Data

BACKGROUND

Bacterial meningitis causes a high burden of disease in the African meningitis belt, with regular seasonal hyperendemicity and sporadic short, but intense, localized epidemics during the late dry season occurring at a small spatial scale [i.e., below the district level, in individual health centers (HCs)]. In addition, epidemic waves with larger geographic extent occur every 7-10 y. Although atmospheric dust load is thought to be an essential factor for hyperendemicity, its role for localized epidemics remains hypothetic.

OBJECTIVES

Our goal was to evaluate the association of localized meningitis epidemics in HC catchment areas with the dust load and the occurrence of cases in the same population early in the dry season.

METHODS

We compiled weekly reported cases of suspected bacterial meningitis at the HC resolution for 14 districts of Burkina Faso for the period 2004-2014. Using logistic regression, we evaluated the association of epidemic HC-weeks with atmospheric dust [approximated by the aerosol optical thickness (AOT) satellite product] and with the observation of early meningitis cases during October-December.

RESULTS

Although AOT was strongly associated with epidemic HC-weeks in crude analyses across all HC-weeks during the meningitis season [odds ratio (OR) [Formula: see text]; 95% CI: 4.90, 9.50], the association was no longer apparent when controlling for calendar week (OR [Formula: see text]; 95% CI: 0.60, 1.50). The number of early meningitis cases reported during October-December was associated with epidemic HC-weeks in the same HC catchment area during January-May of the following year (OR for each additional early case [Formula: see text]; 95% CI: 1.06, 1.21).

CONCLUSIONS

Spatial variations of atmospheric dust load do not seem to be a factor in the occurrence of localized meningitis epidemics, and the factor triggering them remains to be identified. The pathophysiological mechanism linking early cases to localized epidemics is not understood, but their occurrence and number of early cases could be an indicator for epidemic risk. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2752.

Characterization of strains of Neisseria meningitidis causing meningococcal meningitis in Mozambique, 2014: Implications for vaccination against meningococcal meningitis

INTRODUCTION

In sub Saharan Africa, the epidemiology, including the distribution of serogroups of strains of N. meningitidis is poorly investigated in countries outside "the meningitis belt". This study was conducted with the aim to determine the distribution of serogroups of strains of N. meningitidis causing meningococcal meningitis in children and adults in Mozambique.

METHODS

A total of 106 PCR confirmed Neisseria meningitidis Cerebrospinal Fluid (CSF) samples or isolates were obtained from the biobank of acute bacterial meningitis (ABM) surveillance being implemented by the National Institute of Health, at three central hospitals in Mozambique, from January to December 2014. Serogroups of N. meningitidis were determined using conventional PCR, targeting siaD gene for Neisseria meningitidis. Outer Membrane Proteins (OMP) Genotyping was performed by amplifying porA gene in nine samples.

RESULTS

Of the 106 PCR confirmed Neisseria meningitidis samples, the most frequent serotype was A (50.0%, 53/106), followed by W/Y (18.9%, 20/106), C (8.5%, 9/106), X (7.5%, 8/106) and B (0.9%, 1/106). We found non-groupable strains in a total of 15 (14.2%) samples. PorA genotypes from nine strains showed expected patterns with the exception of two serogroup C strains with P1.19,15,36 and P1.19-36,15 and one serogroup X with P1.19,15,36, variants frequently associated to serogroup B.

CONCLUSION

Our data shows that the number of cases of meningococcal meningitis routinely reported in central hospitals in Mozambique is significant and the most dominant serogroup is A. In conclusion, although serogroup A has almost been eliminated from the "meningitis belt", this serogroup remains a major concern in countries outside the belt such as Mozambique.

Epidemiology of central nervous system infectious diseases: a meta-analysis and systematic review with implications for neurosurgeons worldwide

OBJECTIVECentral nervous system (CNS) infections cause significant morbidity and mortality and often require neurosurgical intervention for proper diagnosis and treatment. However, neither the international burden of CNS infection, nor the current capacity of the neurosurgical workforce to treat these diseases is well characterized. The objective of this study was to elucidate the global incidence of surgically relevant CNS infection, highlighting geographic areas for targeted improvement in neurosurgical capacity.METHODSA systematic literature review and meta-analysis were performed to capture studies published between 1990 and 2016. PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane databases were searched using variations of terms relating to CNS infection and epidemiology (incidence, prevalence, burden, case fatality, etc.). To deliver a geographic breakdown of disease, results were pooled using the random-effects model and stratified by WHO region and national income status for the different CNS infection types.RESULTSThe search yielded 10,906 studies, 154 of which were used in the final qualitative analysis. A meta-analysis was performed to compute disease incidence by using data extracted from 71 of the 154 studies. The remaining 83 studies were excluded from the quantitative analysis because they did not report incidence. A total of 508,078 cases of CNS infections across all studies were included, with a total sample size of 130,681,681 individuals. Mean patient age was 35.8 years (range: newborn to 95 years), and the male/female ratio was 1:1.74. Among the 71 studies with incidence data, 39 were based in high-income countries, 25 in middle-income countries, and 7 in low-income countries. The pooled incidence of studied CNS infections was consistently highest in low-income countries, followed by middle- and then high-income countries. Regarding WHO regions, Africa had the highest pooled incidence of bacterial meningitis (65 cases/100,000 people), neurocysticercosis (650/100,000), and tuberculous spondylodiscitis (55/100,000), whereas Southeast Asia had the highest pooled incidence of intracranial abscess (49/100,000), and Europe had the highest pooled incidence of nontuberculous vertebral spondylodiscitis (5/100,000). Overall, few articles reported data on deaths associated with infection. The limited case fatality data revealed the highest case fatality for tuberculous meningitis/spondylodiscitis (21.1%) and the lowest for neurocysticercosis (5.5%). In all five disease categories, funnel plots assessing for publication bias were asymmetrical and suggested that the results may underestimate the incidence of disease.CONCLUSIONSThis systematic review and meta-analysis approximates the global incidence of neurosurgically relevant infectious diseases. These results underscore the disproportionate burden of CNS infections in the developing world, where there is a tremendous demand to provide training and resources for high-quality neurosurgical care.

Changes in Ugandan Climate Rainfall at the Village and Forest Level

In 2013, the US National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) refined the historical rainfall estimates over the African Continent and produced the African Rainfall Climate version 2.0 (ARC2) estimator. ARC2 offers a nearly complete record of daily rainfall estimates since 1983 at 0.1° × 0.1° resolution. Despite short-term anomalies, we identify an overall decrease in average rainfall of about 12% during the past 34 years in Uganda. Spatiotemporally, these decreases are greatest in agricultural regions of central and western Uganda, but similar rainfall decreases are also reflected in the gorilla habitat within the Bwindi Forest in Southwest Uganda. The findings carry significant implications for agriculture production, food security, wildlife habitat, and economic impact at the community and societal level.

Vaccine prevention of meningococcal disease in Africa: Major advances, remaining challenges

Africa historically has had the highest incidence of meningococcal disease with high endemic rates and periodic epidemics. The meningitis belt, a region of sub-Saharan Africa extending from Senegal to Ethiopia, has experienced large, devastating epidemics. However, dramatic shifts in the epidemiology of meningococcal disease have occurred recently. For instance, meningococcal capsular group A (NmA) epidemics in the meningitis belt have essentially been eliminated by use of conjugate vaccine. However, NmW epidemics have emerged and spread across the continent since 2000; NmX epidemics have occurred sporadically, and NmC recently emerged in Nigeria and Niger. Outside the meningitis belt, NmB predominates in North Africa, while NmW followed by NmB predominate in South Africa. Improved surveillance is necessary to address the challenges of this changing epidemiologic picture. A low-cost, multivalent conjugate vaccine covering NmA and the emergent and prevalent meningococcal capsular groups C, W, and X in the meningitis belt is a pressing need.

The association between respiratory tract infection incidence and localised meningitis epidemics: an analysis of high-resolution surveillance data from Burkina Faso

Meningococcal meningitis epidemics in the African meningitis belt consist of localised meningitis epidemics (LME) that reach attack proportions of 1% within a few weeks. A meningococcal serogroup A conjugate vaccine was introduced in meningitis belt countries from 2010 on, but LME due to other serogroups continue to occur. The mechanisms underlying LME are poorly understood, but an association with respiratory pathogens has been hypothesised. We analysed national routine surveillance data in high spatial resolution (health centre level) from 13 districts in Burkina Faso, 2004–2014. We defined LME as a weekly incidence rate of suspected meningitis ≥75 per 100,000 during ≥2 weeks; and high incidence episodes of respiratory tract infections (RTI) as the 5^th quintile of monthly incidences. We included 10,334 health centre month observations during the meningitis season (January-May), including 85 with LME, and 1891 (1820) high-incidence episodes of upper (lower) RTI. In mixed effects logistic regression accounting for spatial structure, and controlling for dust conditions, relative air humidity and month, the occurrence of LME was strongly associated with high incidence episodes of upper (odds ratio 23.9, 95%-confidence interval 3.1–185.3), but not lower RTI. In the African meningitis belt, meningitis epidemics may be triggered by outbreaks of upper RTI.