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Hamar Á, Mohammed D, Váradi A, Herczeg R, Balázsfalvi N, Fülesdi B, László I, Gömöri L, Gergely PA, Kovacs GL, Jáksó K, Gombos K. COVID-19 mortality prediction in Hungarian ICU settings implementing random forest algorithm. Sci Rep 2024; 14:11941. [PMID: 38789490 PMCID: PMC11126653 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-62791-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/13/2024] [Accepted: 05/19/2024] [Indexed: 05/26/2024] Open
Abstract
The emergence of newer SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs) profoundly changed the ICU demography; this shift in the virus's genotype and its correlation to lethality in the ICUs is still not fully investigated. We aimed to survey ICU patients' clinical and laboratory parameters in correlation with SARS-CoV-2 variant genotypes to lethality. 503 COVID-19 ICU patients were included in our study beginning in January 2021 through November 2022 in Hungary. Furthermore, we implemented random forest (RF) as a potential predictor regarding SARS-CoV-2 lethality among 649 ICU patients in two ICU centers. Survival analysis and comparison of hypertension (HT), diabetes mellitus (DM), and vaccination effects were conducted. Logistic regression identified DM as a significant mortality risk factor (OR: 1.55, 95% CI 1.06-2.29, p = 0.025), while HT showed marginal significance. Additionally, vaccination demonstrated protection against mortality (p = 0.028). RF detected lethality with 81.42% accuracy (95% CI 73.01-88.11%, [AUC]: 91.6%), key predictors being PaO2/FiO2 ratio, lymphocyte count, and chest Computed Tomography Severity Score (CTSS). Although a smaller number of patients require ICU treatment among Omicron cases, the likelihood of survival has not proportionately increased for those who are admitted to the ICU. In conclusion, our RF model supports more effective clinical decision-making among ICU COVID-19 patients.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ágoston Hamar
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, Medical School, University of Pécs, Pécs, Hungary
- Molecular Medicine Research Group, Szentágothai Research Centre, University of Pécs, Pécs, Hungary
| | - Daryan Mohammed
- Molecular Medicine Research Group, Szentágothai Research Centre, University of Pécs, Pécs, Hungary
| | - Alex Váradi
- Molecular Medicine Research Group, Szentágothai Research Centre, University of Pécs, Pécs, Hungary
- Institute of Metagenomics, University of Debrecen, Debrecen, Hungary
| | - Róbert Herczeg
- Molecular Medicine Research Group, Szentágothai Research Centre, University of Pécs, Pécs, Hungary
| | - Norbert Balázsfalvi
- Department of Anaesthesiology and Intensive Care, University of Debrecen, Debrecen, Hungary
| | - Béla Fülesdi
- Department of Anaesthesiology and Intensive Care, University of Debrecen, Debrecen, Hungary
| | - István László
- Department of Anaesthesiology and Intensive Care, University of Debrecen, Debrecen, Hungary
| | - Lídia Gömöri
- Doctoral School of Neuroscience, University of Debrecen, Debrecen, Hungary
| | | | - Gabor Laszlo Kovacs
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, Medical School, University of Pécs, Pécs, Hungary
- Molecular Medicine Research Group, Szentágothai Research Centre, University of Pécs, Pécs, Hungary
| | - Krisztián Jáksó
- Department of Anaesthesiology and Intensive Care, Clinical Centre, University of Pécs, Pécs, Hungary
| | - Katalin Gombos
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, Medical School, University of Pécs, Pécs, Hungary.
- Molecular Medicine Research Group, Szentágothai Research Centre, University of Pécs, Pécs, Hungary.
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Korsakov IN, Karonova TL, Mikhaylova AA, Loboda AA, Chernikova AT, Mikheeva AG, Sharypova MV, Konradi AO, Shlyakhto EV. Artificial intelligence for predicting mortality in hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Digit Health 2024; 10:20552076241287919. [PMID: 39372811 PMCID: PMC11456173 DOI: 10.1177/20552076241287919] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/11/2024] [Accepted: 09/02/2024] [Indexed: 10/08/2024] Open
Abstract
Background The global demographic situation has been significantly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. The objective of this study was to develop a model that predicts the risk of COVID-associated mortality using clinical and laboratory data collected within 72 h of hospital admission. Materials and methods A total of 3024 subjects with PCR-confirmed COVID-19 were admitted to Almazov National Research Medical Center between May 2020 and August 2021. Among them, 6.25% (n = 189) of patients had a fatal outcome. Five machine learning models and the Boruta-SHAP feature selection method were utilized to assess the risk of mortality during COVID-19 hospitalization. Results All methods demonstrated high efficacy, with ROC AUC (Receiver Operating Characteristic Area Under the Curve) values exceeding 80%. The selected Boruta-SHAP features, when incorporated into the random forest model, achieved an ROC AUC of 93.1% in the validation. Conclusion Throughout the study, close collaboration with healthcare professionals ensured that the developed tool met their practical needs. The success of our model validates the potential of machine learning techniques as decision support systems in clinical practice.
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Affiliation(s)
- Igor N. Korsakov
- Almazov National Medical Research Centre, Saint Petersburg, Russia
| | | | | | | | | | - Anna G. Mikheeva
- Almazov National Medical Research Centre, Saint Petersburg, Russia
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Panç K, Hürsoy N, Başaran M, Yazici MM, Kaba E, Nalbant E, Gündoğdu H, Gürün E. Predicting COVID-19 Outcomes: Machine Learning Predictions Across Diverse Datasets. Cureus 2023; 15:e50932. [PMID: 38249212 PMCID: PMC10800012 DOI: 10.7759/cureus.50932] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 12/21/2023] [Indexed: 01/23/2024] Open
Abstract
Background The COVID-19 infection has spread rapidly since its emergence and has affected a large part of the global population. With the increasing number of cases, researchers are trying to predict the prognosis of patients by using different data with artificial intelligence methods such as machine learning (ML). In this study, we aimed to predict mortality risk in COVID-19 patients using ML algorithms with different datasets. Methodology In this retrospective study, we evaluated the fever, oxygen saturation, laboratory results, thorax computed tomography (CT) findings, and comorbid diseases at admission to the hospital of 404 patients whose diagnosis was confirmed by the reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction test. Different datasets were created by combining the data. The Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique was used to reduce the imbalance in the dataset. K-nearest neighbors, support vector machine, stochastic gradient descent, random forest, neural network, naive Bayes, logistic regression, gradient boosting, XGBoost, and AdaBoost models were used to create the ML algorithm, and the accuracy rates of mortality prediction were compared. Results When the dataset was created with CT parenchyma score, pulmonary artery and inferior vena cava diameters, and laboratory results, mortality was predicted with an accuracy of 98.4% with the gradient boosting model. Conclusions The study demonstrates that patient prognosis can be accurately predicted using simple measurements from thorax CT scans and laboratory findings.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kemal Panç
- Radiology, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Education and Research Hospital, Rize, TUR
| | - Nur Hürsoy
- Radiology, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Education and Research Hospital, Rize, TUR
| | - Mustafa Başaran
- Radiology, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Education and Research Hospital, Rize, TUR
| | - Mümin Murat Yazici
- Emergency Medicine, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Education and Research Hospital, Rize, TUR
| | - Esat Kaba
- Radiology, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Education and Research Hospital, Rize, TUR
| | | | - Hasan Gündoğdu
- Radiology, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Education and Research Hospital, Rize, TUR
| | - Enes Gürün
- Radiology, Samsun University, Samsun, TUR
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