More than half of presumptive multidrug-resistant cases referred to a tuberculosis referral laboratory in the Tigray region of Ethiopia are multidrug resistant

Mycobacterium tuberculosis and rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis among tuberculosis presumptive patients in selected zones of Tigray, Northern Ethiopia, 2016-2019

Introduction

Tuberculosis (TB) is the second leading cause of mortality from an infectious disease worldwide. Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB), where rifampicin-resistant TB is the biggest contributor, remains a global health threat. There is scant data on MTB and rifampicin resistance (RR-MTB) using Gene Xpert MTB/RIF assay in Ethiopia. This study aimed to determine the prevalence of MTB and RR-MTB among presumptive TB patients in Tigray, Northern Ethiopia.

Methods

A multi-center retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted from October 2019 to December 2019 among presumptive MTB patients from four hospitals in Tigray. Records of sputum sample results of presumptive MTB patients analyzed with Gene Xpert MTB/RIF assay from January 2016 to December 2019 were investigated. Data were extracted using a data-extraction tool from registration books and analyzed using SPSS ver.21. Statistically significant was set at p-value ≤0.05.

Results

From 17,329 presumptive adult MTB patients who had submitted sputum samples for TB diagnosis, 16,437 (94.9 %) had complete records and were included in the study. More than half (60.2 %) of them were males and ages ranged from 18 to 98 years. Majority of the participants: 15,047(91.5 %) were new cases and 11,750 (71.5 %) were with unknown HIV status. Prevalence of MTB was 9.7 % (95 % CI: 9.2-10.2 %) of these, rifampicin resistant-MTB was 8.7 % (95 % CI: 7.32-10.09 %). Age (being >29 years) [p < 0.001] and new cases [AOR = 0.46; 95%CI = 0.39, 0.53, p < 0.001] were associated with low TB infection. Age groups of 18-29 years were associated with higher RR-MTB [AOR = 3.08; 95 % CI = 1.07, 8.72, p = 0.036].

Conclusion

Nearly one-tenth of the presumptive tuberculosis patients tested positive for MTB; out of these, 8.7 % were RR-MTB. The high prevalence of TB and RR-MTB at a young age and previously treated cases calls for a concerted effort to improve and monitor TB treatment to reduce the problem.

Prevalence and Temporal Trends of Multidrug-resistant Tuberculosis in Iran from 1981 to 2023: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) is a serious threat to global tuberculosis (TB) control efforts. This study aims to investigate the trend of MDR-TB prevalence in Iran over 20 years.

METHODS

A systematic literature search was conducted in various databases, including PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science, from 1981 to 2023. Studies reporting the prevalence of MDR-TB in Iran were included in the meta-analysis. Statistical analysis was performed using Comprehensive Meta-Analysis software.

RESULTS

A total of 58 studies from different provinces of Iran were included in the meta-analysis. The majority of studies were from Tehran (n = 33), Kermanshah (n = 5), Mashhad (n = 4), and Tabriz (n = 4) provinces. Overall, 1885 cases of MDR-TB were reported in Iran during the study period. The highest number of MDR-TB cases was reported in 2000 (582 cases) and the lowest in 2001 (1 case). An increasing trend in MDR-TB prevalence was observed, particularly between 2018 and 2019. The pooled prevalence of MDR-TB in Iran was 12.31% (95% CI: 11.83-12.80) using the fixed-effects model and 20.21% (95% CI: 15.70-26.01) using the random-effects model. No evidence of publication bias was found.

CONCLUSION

The results of this comprehensive meta-analysis highlight the increasing trend of MDR-TB in Iran over the past two decades. This underscores the urgent need for strengthening TB control strategies, including improved surveillance, case detection, treatment, and management of MDR-TB in the country. Developing diagnostic and treatment approaches for MDR-TB should be prioritized by Iranian medical universities and public health authorities.

Delays to treatment initiation and emergence of drug resistance among new adult tuberculosis patients in Tigray, Northern Ethiopia

Introduction. Studies in Ethiopia have indicated that tuberculosis (TB) patient's elapsed a long time before initiating treatment.Gap Statement. However, there is very limited evidence on the association of treatment initiation delay with drug resistance.Research Aim. To investigate the association of delayed treatment initiation with drug resistance among newly diagnosed TB patients in Tigray, Ethiopia.Methods. We conducted a follow-up study from October 2018 to June 2020 by recruiting 875 pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) patients from 21 randomly selected health facilities. Delays to initiate treatment and drug resistance were collected using a standardized questionnaire and standard laboratory investigation. The association of delay to initiate treatment with acquired drug resistance was modelled using penalized maximum-likelihood (PML) regression models. Data were analysed using stata software version 15. Statistical significance was reported whenever the P-value was less than 0.05.Result. The median total delay to treatment initiation was 62 days with an inter-quartile range of 16-221 days. A unit change in time to initiate treatment reduced the risk of acquired drug resistance by 3 %. Being smear-positive at the end of treatment and after 2 months of treatment initiation were significantly associated with a higher risk of acquired drug resistance. Whereas, having a mild clinical condition was associated with a lower risk of drug resistance.Conclusion. Time to treatment initiation delay is associated with an increased risk of the emergence of drug resistance. Efforts targeted towards reducing the negative effects of PTB should focus on reducing the length of delay to initiate treatment.

Risk factors associated with drug-resistant tuberculosis in Ethiopia: A systematic review and meta-analysis

The emergence of drug-resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB) is becoming a challenge to the national TB control programmes including Ethiopia. Different risk factors are associated with DR-TB. Identifying these risk factors in a local setting is important to strengthen the effort to prevent and control DR-TB. Thus, this study aimed to assess the risk factors associated with DR-TB in Ethiopia. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses checklist was followed to conduct this study. We systematically searched the articles from electronic databases and grey literature sources. We used the JBI tools to assess the quality of studies. Data were analysed using STATA version 15. We estimated the pooled odds ratio (OR) along with 95% Confidence Interval (CI). The forest plot and I2 heterogeneity test were used to assess heterogeneity among studies. We explored the presence of publication bias through visual inspection of the funnel plot and Egger's regression test. After screening 2238 articles, 27 studies were included in the final analysis. Based on the pooled analysis of the OR, unemployment (OR; 2.71, 95% CI; 1.64, 3.78), previous TB history (OR; 4.83, 95% CI; 3.02, 6.64), contact with known TB patient (OR; 1.72, 95% CI; 1.05, 2.40), contact with the known multi-drug resistant (MDR) TB patient (OR; 2.54, 95% CI; 1.46, 3.63) and having pulmonary TB (PTB; OR; 1.80, 95% CI; 1.14, 2.45) were found to be the risk factors of DR-TB, while elders (OR; 0.77, 95%CI; 0.60, 0.95) including above 45 years (OR; 0.76, 95%CI; 0.55, 0.97) and males (OR; 0.86, 95%CI; 0.76, 0.97) had lower DR-TB risk, compared to their counterparts. A previous history of TB treatment is a major risk factor for acquiring DR-TB in Ethiopia that might be due to poor adherence during the first-line anti-TB treatment. Besides, having contact with a TB patient, contact with an MDR-TB patient, having PTB and being unemployed were the risk factors of DR-TB in Ethiopia. Thus, active screening of TB contacts for DR-TB might help to detect DR-TB cases as early as possible and could help to mitigate its further transmission across the community.

The Magnitude of MTB and Rifampicin Resistance MTB Using Xpert-MTB/RIF Assay Among Tuberculosis Suspected Patients in Gedeo Zone, Southern Ethiopia

Background

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a major global health problem causing death among millions of people each year. The new barrier that challenges the control of tuberculosis is the emerging and the increasing number of drug-resistant TB that becomes a world concern. This study aimed to determine the magnitude of rifampicin-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis (RR-MTB) among presumptive TB patients attending Dilla University Referral Hospital, Gedeo Zone, Ethiopia.

Methods

A retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted at Dilla University Referral Hospital from January 2014 to December 2020. Sputum results were done using Xpert MTB/RIF assay and other necessary data were collected from the registration logbooks using a standardized data extraction format and analyzed using SPSS version 23 statistical software.

Results

A total of 17,745 presumptive TB patients were included, of which 62.2% were males. The overall prevalence of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) was 11.8%, of which 5.1% were confirmed to have RR-MTB. Extra-pulmonary TB was reported in 1.5% of the study participants. The highest prevalence of MTB and RR-MTB was recorded in 2017 with a prevalence of 20.1% and 8.5%, respectively. All age groups were significantly associated with a higher prevalence of MTB (p < 0.036). TB patients with a history of previous treatment and HIV positive were significantly associated with MTB (P < 0.021), while RR-MTB was only significantly associated with patients with a history of previous treatment (P < 0.018).

Conclusion

A high magnitude of MTB and RR-MTB was reported among TB patients with HIV and a history of previous treatment. Therefore, coordinated efforts should be applied to the improvement of treatment adherence of known TB cases, and appropriate control and prevention methods to reduce the emergence and increase of MTB and RR-MTB cases.

Prevalence of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Rifampicin-Resistant MTB) and Associated Risk Actors Among Pulmonary Presumptive TB Patients in Eastern Amhara, Ethiopia: 2015-2019

INTRODUCTION

Tuberculosis (TB) is a major health problem, mainly in resource-limited settings. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of TB and rifampicin-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis (RR-MTB) among presumptive tuberculosis patients using Xpert MTB/RIF assay in Eastern Amhara, Ethiopia.

METHODS

A retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted among presumptive TB patients from three governmental hospitals in Amhara Regional State. Records of sputum sample results using Xpert MTB/RIF assay from January 2015 to December 2019 were investigated from registration books and analyzed using SPSS v.21.

RESULTS

Of the total of 26,656 (24,116 adults and 2540 children) TB presumptive patients included in the study, more than half, 14,624 (54.9%), were males and the median age was 36.87 (interquartile: 25.46-50.85 years). The majority of participants were new cases, 20,273 (76.1%), and with unknown HIV status, 18,981 (71.2%), respectively. MTB prevalence was 11% (95% CI: 9.34-12.08%) in all age groups, and 7.6% (95% CI 6.52-9.04%) among children. Of the MTB confirmed cases, prevalence of RR-MTB was 245 (8.3%) in adults and 14 (7.2%) in children. MTB infection was higher in the age groups of 18-35 years [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 2.17; 95% CI: 1.86-2.54, p < 0.001], 36-53 years (AOR = 1.31; 95% CI 1.11-1.54, p < 0.001), those who were relapse cases (AOR = 1.97; 95% CI 1.69-2.27, p < 0.0010), and failure cases (AOR = 4.67; 95% CI 3.36-6.50, p < 0.001). However, the age groups of 54-71 years (AOR = 0.79; 95% CI 0.65-0.95, p = 0.01) and over 71 years (AOR = 0.48; 95% CI 0.35-0.68, p < 0.001) were associated with lower MTB infection. Resistance to rifampicin was higher in the relapsed (AOR = 2.10; 95% CI 1.40-3.03, p < 0.001) and failure cases (AOR = 3.50; 95% CI 1.9-6.61, p < 001).

CONCLUSION

Prevalence of MTB and RR-MTB low. TB infection was higher in adult age groups and those who had previous TB treatment history. Similarly, resistance to rifampicin was higher among the relapsed and failure patients. Appropriate measurements in monitoring of TB treatment could reduce TB and RR-MTB in the study area.

Treatment Interruption Among Drug-Susceptible Pulmonary Tuberculosis Patients in Southern Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis treatment interruption is a failure of attending two scheduled appointments to collect the drugs in either phase of tuberculosis treatment. Even if TB treatment is crucial to achieve a cure and avoid the emergence of drug resistance, treatment interruption is the most testing and deterring factor for successful tuberculosis treatment and one of the problems leading to the development of drug-resistant tuberculosis. TB treatment interruption is the precursor for loss to follow-up and treatment failure, but the magnitude of this problem is unknown in Ethiopia. Thus, this study was intended to identify determinants of treatment interruption among drug-susceptible pulmonary tuberculosis patients in South Ari district, Southern Ethiopia.

METHODS

An institution-based unmatched case control study was conducted from February through April 2020 using 255 samples with a ratio of 2:1 (controls to cases). Data were entered into Epi data version 4.2 and exported for analysis using STATA 14.0 statistical software. The variables having a p-value of less than 0.25 in the bivariable analysis were subjected to multivariable logistic regression analysis. In multivariable logistic regression analysis, AORs, 95% CIs, and p-values of <0.05 were used to identify significant variables.

RESULTS

The median age was 34 (IQR: 18) years in cases and 29 (IQR: 16) years in control groups. Significant factors that were associated with treatment interruption were alcohol consumption (AOR = 2.99, 95% CI; 1.41-6.36); smoking habits (AOR = 2.82, 95% CI; 1.14-6.94); use of traditional medicine (AOR = 2.35, 95% CI 1.05-5.24); co-infected with HIV (AOR=1.58, 95% CI; 1.85-4.29), and waiting time at the health facility ≥30 minutes (AOR = 2.98, 95% CI; 1.31-6.80).

CONCLUSION

Alcohol consumption, waiting time at the health facility ≥30 minutes, smoking habits, used traditional medicine, and HIV co-infected were potential determinants. Enhancing public health education, designing strategies that emphasize patients with HIV co-infection, and reducing waiting times are recommended.

Genetic diversity of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex strains from newly diagnosed tuberculosis patients in Northwest Ethiopia reveals a predominance of East-African-Indian and Euro-American lineages

OBJECTIVES

This study described the population structure of M. tuberculosis complex (MTBc) strains among patients with pulmonary or lymph node tuberculosis (TB) in Northwest Ethiopia and tested the performance of culture isolation and MPT64-based speciation for Lineage 7 (L7).

METHODS

Patients were recruited between April 2017 and June 2019 in North Gondar, Ethiopia. The MPT64 assay was used to confirm MTBc, and spoligotyping was used to characterize mycobacterial lineages. Line probe assay (LPA) was used to detect resistance to rifampicin and isoniazid.

RESULTS

Among 274 MTBc genotyped isolates, there were five MTBc lineages: L1-L4 and L7 were identified, with predominant East-African-Indian (L3) (53.6%) and Euro-American (L4) (40.1%) strains, and low prevalence (2.6%) of Ethiopia L7. The genotypes were similarly distributed between pulmonary and lymph node TB, and all lineages were equally isolated by culture and recognized as MTBc by the MPT64 assay. Additionally, LPA showed that 259 (94.5%) MTBc were susceptible to both rifampicin and isoniazid, and one (0.4%) was multi-drug resistant (resistant to both rifampicin and isoniazid).

CONCLUSION

These findings show that TB in North Gondar, Ethiopia, is mainly caused by L3 and L4 strains, with low rates of L7, confirmed as MTBc by MPT64 assay and with limited resistance to rifampicin and isoniazid.

Frequency of MTB and rifampicin resistance MTB using Xpert-MTB/RIF assay among adult presumptive tuberculosis patients in Tigray, Northern Ethiopia: A cross sectional study

BACKGROUND

Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) continues to be a global health problem. Data on rifampicin resistance MTB using Xpert- MTB/RIF assay in Ethiopia, particularly in the study area is limited. The aim of this study was to determine the frequency of MTB and rifampicin resistant-MTB among presumptive tuberculosis patients in Tigray, Northern Ethiopia.

METHODS

A multicenter retrospective study was conducted among presumptive TB patients from five governmental hospitals and one comprehensive specialized teaching hospital in Tigray regional state. Records of sputum sample results of presumptive MTB patients with Xpert-MTB/RIF assay from January 2016 to December 2019 were investigated. Data extraction tool was used to collect data from registration books and analyzed using SPSS ver.21 statistical software. Statistical significance was set at p-value ≤ 0.05.

RESULTS

Of the 30,935 presumptive adult TB patients who have provided specimens for TB diagnosis from January 2016 to December 2019, 30,300 (98%) had complete data and were included in this study. More than half, 17,471 (57.7%) were males, and the age of the patients ranged from 18-112 years, with a median age of 40.65 (interquartile 29.4-56.5 years). Majority, 28,996 (95.7%) of the participants were treatment naïve, and 23,965 (79.1%) were with unknown HIV status. The overall frequency of MTB was 2,387 (7.9% (95% CI: 7.6-8.2%); of these, 215 (9% (95% CI: 7.9-10.2%) were rifampicin resistant-MTB. Age (18-29 years), HIV positive and previous TB treatment history were significantly associated with high MTB (p < 0.001), whereas gender (being female) was associated with low MTB (p < 0.001). Likewise, rifampicin resistant-MTB was more prevalent among relapse (p < 0.001) and failure cases (p = 0.025); while age group 30-39 years was significantly associated with lower frequency of rifampicin resistant-MTB (p = 0.008).

CONCLUSION

Frequency of MTB among tuberculosis presumptive patients was low; however, the problem of rifampicin resistant-MTB among the tuberculosis confirmed patients was high. The high frequency of MTB and RR-MTB among previously treated and HIV positive patients highlights the need for more efforts in TB treatment and monitoring program in the study area.

Electronic pillbox-enabled self-administered therapy versus standard directly observed therapy for tuberculosis medication adherence and treatment outcomes in Ethiopia (SELFTB): protocol for a multicenter randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

To address the multifaceted challenges associated with tuberculosis (TB) in-person directly observed therapy (DOT), the World Health Organization recently recommended that countries maximize the use of digital adherence technologies. Sub-Saharan Africa needs to investigate the effectiveness of such technologies in local contexts and proactively contribute to global decisions around patient-centered TB care. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of pillbox-enabled self-administered therapy (SAT) compared to standard DOT on adherence to TB medication and treatment outcomes in Ethiopia. It also aims to assess the usability, acceptability, and cost-effectiveness of the intervention from the patient and provider perspectives.

METHODS

This is a multicenter, randomized, controlled, open-label, superiority, effectiveness-implementation hybrid, mixed-methods, two-arm trial. The study is designed to enroll 144 outpatients with new or previously treated, bacteriologically confirmed, drug-sensitive pulmonary TB who are eligible to start the standard 6-month first-line anti-TB regimen. Participants in the intervention arm (n = 72) will receive 15 days of HRZE-isoniazid, rifampicin, pyrazinamide, and ethambutol-fixed-dose combination therapy in the evriMED500 medication event reminder monitor device for self-administration. When returned, providers will count any remaining tablets in the device, download the pill-taking data, and refill based on preset criteria. Participants can consult the provider in cases of illness or adverse events outside of scheduled visits. Providers will handle participants in the control arm (n = 72) according to the standard in-person DOT. Both arms will be followed up throughout the 2-month intensive phase. The primary outcomes will be medication adherence and sputum conversion. Adherence to medication will be calculated as the proportion of patients who missed doses in the intervention (pill count) versus DOT (direct observation) arms, confirmed further by IsoScreen urine isoniazid test and a self-report of adherence on eight-item Morisky Medication Adherence Scale. Sputum conversion is defined as the proportion of patients with smear conversion following the intensive phase in intervention versus DOT arms, confirmed further by pre-post intensive phase BACTEC MGIT TB liquid culture. Pre-post treatment MGIT drug susceptibility testing will determine whether resistance to anti-TB drugs could have impacted culture conversion. Secondary outcomes will include other clinical outcomes (treatment not completed, death, or loss to follow-up), cost-effectiveness-individual and societal costs with quality-adjusted life years-and acceptability and usability of the intervention by patients and providers.

DISCUSSION

This study will be the first in Ethiopia, and of the first three in sub-Saharan Africa, to determine whether electronic pillbox-enabled SAT improves adherence to TB medication and treatment outcomes, all without affecting the inherent dignity and economic wellbeing of patients with TB.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04216420. Registered on 2 January 2020.

Tuberculosis patients are physically challenged and socially isolated: A mixed methods case-control study of Health Related Quality of Life in Eastern Ethiopia

INTRODUCTION

Pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) impairs respiratory physiology and functional ability, resulting in economic and social dependence upon others. Patients with tuberculosis especially multi drug resistant (MDR-TB) suffer from social isolation, stigma, lack of support and economic constraints. In Ethiopia, the trend of MDR TB is increasing and becoming a serious public health problem. However, little is known about patients except treatment outcomes, financial burden and psychological distress with serious deficiency of data on Health Related Quality of Life (HRQOL). Hence, the aim of this study was to assess HRQOL of MDR TB patients in comparison with drug sensitive pulmonary TB (DSTB) patients.

METHODS

We included 100 cases of MDR and 300 controls with DSTB who were matched by sex. Data were collected using SF- 36v2 TM questionnaire and analysed with SPSS version 20. Independent t-test and conditional logistic regression analysis was done considering P-values of less than 0.05 statistically significant. Eight in-depth interviews were also conducted with both groups and represented with verbatim quotations and narrative texts.

RESULTS

There were no statistically significant differences in mean scores for health related quality of life between cases and controls (57.61±16.42 and 59.13±22.10) nor were there significant differences in physical functioning, role disruption due to physical problems, vitality, social functioning, role disruption due to emotional distress, or overall mental health. Individuals with MDR-TB were significantly more likely to be single, a current student, and with lower education and families with more than 5 people than individuals with Drug sensitive TB, all of which were significantly associated with poorer HRQOL (p<0.05). There was good internal consistency of the scale scores, with a Cronbach's alpha value of 0.73.

CONCLUSION

Individuals with MDR-TB reported statistically worse general health but less bodily pain than individuals with Drug sensitive TB. To regain the role function they lost, we recommend that health facilities, media and all other stakeholders educate the community, households and students about pulmonary tuberculosis, treatment, prevention methods and therapeutic approaches towards TB patients, specifically MDR-TB.

Tuberculosis treatment outcome and predictors in northern Ethiopian prisons: a five-year retrospective analysis

BACKGROUND

The prison situations are notorious for causing interruptions of tuberculosis (TB) treatment and occurrence of unfavorable outcomes. In Ethiopian prisons, though TB treatment programs exist, treatment outcome results and factors contributing to unsuccessful outcome are not well documented. In this study, we assessed the treatment outcome of TB cases and identified risk factors for unsuccessful outcome in northern Ethiopian prisons.

METHODS

A retrospective record review was conducted for all prisoners diagnosed with TB between September 2011 and August 2015. Outcome variables were defined following WHO guidelines.

RESULTS

Out of the 496 patients, 11.5% were cured, 68% completed treatment, 2.5% were lost to follow-up, 1.6% were with a treatment failure, 1.4% died, and 15% were transferred out. All transferred out or released prisoners were not appropriately linked to health facilities and might be lost to treatment follow-up. The overall treatment success rate (TSR) of the 5 years was 94% among the patients who were not transferred out. The odds of unsuccessful outcome were 4.68 times greater among re-treatment cases compared to the newly treated cases. The year of treatment was also associated with variations in TSR; those treated during the earlier year were more likely to have unsuccessful outcome. Sputum non-conversion at the second-month check-up was strongly associated with unsuccessful outcome among the smear-positive cases.

CONCLUSIONS

The mean TSR of the prisoners in the study prisons was quite satisfactory when gauged against the target level set by the End TB Strategy. However, the lack of appropriate linkage and tracking systems for those prisoners transferred or released before their treatment completion would have a negative implication for the national TB control program as such patients might interrupt their treatment and develop drug-resistant TB. Being in a re-treatment regimen and sputum non-conversion at the second-month check-up were significantly associated with unsuccessful treatment outcome among the all forms of and smear-positive TB cases, respectively.

Spatial patterns of multidrug resistant tuberculosis and relationships to socio-economic, demographic and household factors in northwest Ethiopia

Background

Understanding the geographical distribution of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) in high TB burden countries such as Ethiopia is crucial for effective control of TB epidemics in these countries, and thus globally. We present the first spatial analysis of multidrug resistant tuberculosis, and its relationship to socio-economic, demographic and household factors in northwest Ethiopia.

Methods

An ecological study was conducted using data on patients diagnosed with MDR-TB at the University of Gondar Hospital MDR-TB treatment centre, for the period 2010 to 2015. District level population data were extracted from the Ethiopia National and Regional Census Report. Spatial autocorrelation was explored using Moran’s I statistic, Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA), and the Getis-Ord statistics. A multivariate Poisson regression model was developed with a conditional autoregressive (CAR) prior structure, and with posterior parameters estimated using a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation approach with Gibbs sampling, in WinBUGS.

Results

A total of 264 MDR-TB patients were included in the analysis. The overall crude incidence rate of MDR-TB for the six-year period was 3.0 cases per 100,000 population. The highest incidence rate was observed in Metema (21 cases per 100,000 population) and Humera (18 cases per 100,000 population) districts; whereas nine districts had zero cases. Spatial clustering of MDR-TB was observed in districts located in the Ethiopia-Sudan and Ethiopia-Eritrea border regions, where large numbers of seasonal migrants live. Spatial clustering of MDR-TB was positively associated with urbanization (RR: 1.02; 95%CI: 1.01, 1.04) and the percentage of men (RR: 1.58; 95% CI: 1.26, 1.99) in the districts; after accounting for these factors there was no residual spatial clustering.

Conclusion

Spatial clustering of MDR-TB, fully explained by demographic factors (urbanization and percent male), was detected in the border regions of northwest Ethiopia, in locations where seasonal migrants live and work. Cross-border initiatives including options for mobile TB treatment and follow up are important for the effective control of MDR-TB in the region.