The prognostic predictors of six-month mortality for residents with advanced dementia in long-term care facilities in Taiwan: A prospective cohort study

Trajectories and influencing factors of cognitive function and physical disability in Chinese older people

Introduction

Dementia and physical disability are serious problems faced by the aging population, and their occurrence and development interact.

Methods

Based on data from a national cohort of Chinese people aged 60 years and above from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Survey from 2011 to 2018, we applied the group-based trajectory model to identify the heterogeneous trajectories of cognitive function and physical disability in participants with different physical disability levels. Next, multinomial logistic regression models were used to explore the factors affecting these trajectories.

Results

The cognitive function trajectories of the Chinese older people could be divided into three characteristic groups: those who maintained the highest baseline level of cognitive function, those with a moderate baseline cognitive function and dramatic progression, and those with the worst baseline cognitive function and rapid-slow-rapid progression. The disability trajectories also fell into three characteristic groups: a consistently low baseline disability level, a low initial disability level with rapid development, and a high baseline disability level with rapid development. Compared with those free of physical disability at baseline, a greater proportion of participants who had physical disability at baseline experienced rapid cognitive deterioration. Education, income, type of medical insurance, gender, and marital status were instrumental in the progression of disability and cognitive decline in the participants.

Discussion

We suggest that the Chinese government, focusing on the central and western regions and rural areas, should develop education for the older people and increase their level of economic security to slow the rate of cognitive decline and disability among this age group. These could become important measures to cope with population aging.

Toward a prognostic model for all-cause mortality among old people with disability in long-term care in China

BACKGROUND

Current prognostic model of all-cause mortality may not be applicable for old people with disability in long-term care due to the absence of injury- and care-related predictors. We aimed to develop a prognostic model specifically tailored to this population, based on comprehensive predictors.

METHOD

We conducted a prospective study involving 41,004 participants aged ≥60 with disability in long-term care across 16 study sites in Southwest China from 2017 to 2021. Participants' demographics, clinical characteristics, disability status, and injury- and care-related information at baseline were used as candidate predictors. We employed a LASSO Cox regression model to develop the prognostic model using the training set (70 % of participants), and the predictive performance was validated in the validation set (30 % of participants). The prognostic index (PI) scores of the prognostic model were used to quantify mortality risk.

RESULTS

At the end of the 4-year follow-up, 17,797 deaths (43.4 %) were observed. The prognostic model revealed several powerful and robust predictors of mortality across the total sample and subgroups, including higher age, living with comorbidities, physical and perceptual disability, and living with pressure sores. Non-professional care was an additional predictor in older participants. The risk of death for participants in the highest quartile of PI scores was approximately four-fold higher compared to those in the lowest quartile.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed and validated a prognostic model that can be practically utilized to identify individuals and populations at risk of death among old people with disability in long-term care.

Predicting mortality in patients diagnosed with advanced dementia presenting at an acute care hospital: the PROgnostic Model for Advanced DEmentia (PRO-MADE)

BACKGROUND

Challenges in prognosticating patients diagnosed with advanced dementia (AD) hinders timely referrals to palliative care. We aim to develop and validate a prognostic model to predict one-year all-cause mortality (ACM) in patients with AD presenting at an acute care hospital.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study utilised administrative and clinical data from Tan Tock Seng Hospital (TTSH). Patients admitted to TTSH between 1st July 2016 and 31st October 2017 and identified to have AD were included. The primary outcome was ACM within one-year of AD diagnosis. Multivariable logistic regression was used. The PROgnostic Model for Advanced Dementia (PRO-MADE) was internally validated using a bootstrap resampling of 1000 replications and externally validated on a more recent cohort of AD patients. The model was evaluated for overall predictive accuracy (Nagelkerke's R² and Brier score), discriminative [area-under-the-curve (AUC)], and calibration [calibration slope and calibration-in-the-large (CITL)] properties.

RESULTS

A total of 1,077 patients with a mean age of 85 (SD: 7.7) years old were included, and 318 (29.5%) patients died within one-year of AD diagnosis. Predictors of one-year ACM were age > 85 years (OR:1.87; 95%CI:1.36 to 2.56), male gender (OR:1.62; 95%CI:1.18 to 2.22), presence of pneumonia (OR:1.75; 95%CI:1.25 to 2.45), pressure ulcers (OR:2.60; 95%CI:1.57 to 4.31), dysphagia (OR:1.53; 95%CI:1.11 to 2.11), Charlson Comorbidity Index ≥ 8 (OR:1.39; 95%CI:1.01 to 1.90), functional dependency in ≥ 4 activities of daily living (OR: 1.82; 95%CI:1.32 to 2.53), abnormal urea (OR:2.16; 95%CI:1.58 to 2.95) and abnormal albumin (OR:3.68; 95%CI:2.07 to 6.54) values. Internal validation results for optimism-adjusted Nagelkerke's R², Brier score, AUC, calibration slope and CITL were 0.25 (95%CI:0.25 to 0.26), 0.17 (95%CI:0.17 to 0.17), 0.76 (95%CI:0.76 to 0.76), 0.95 (95% CI:0.95 to 0.96) and 0 (95%CI:-0.0001 to 0.001) respectively. When externally validated, the model demonstrated an AUC of 0.70 (95%CI:0.69 to 0.71), calibration slope of 0.64 (95%CI:0.63 to 0.66) and CITL of -0.27 (95%CI:-0.28 to -0.26).

CONCLUSION

The PRO-MADE attained good discrimination and calibration properties. Used synergistically with a clinician's judgement, this model can identify AD patients who are at high-risk of one-year ACM to facilitate timely referrals to palliative care.

Chronic wounds in persons living with dementia: An integrative review

BACKGROUND

Persons living with dementia (PLWD) are at risk for chronic wounds; however, they are rarely included in research.

OBJECTIVES

To inform practice and research directions, the aim of this integrative review was to identify and synthesise previous knowledge about the characteristics of chronic wounds in PLWD, in terms of chronic wound types, prevalence, setting and interventions.

DESIGN

A literature search was conducted for publications in English using PubMed, Web of Science and CINAHL. The minimum information required for inclusion was how many PLWD enrolled in the study had wounds.

METHODS

This integrative review followed the Whittemore and Knafl methodology. Data extraction and synthesis were guided by a directed content analysis, with a coding structure based on an initial review of the literature.

RESULTS

Thirty-six articles met the inclusion criteria. The majority were missing characteristics of PLWD including severity of dementia and race/ethnicity/nationality, and none mentioned skin tone. Most focused on pressure injuries in the nursing home and acute care setting. Few included information on interventions. Only one discussed challenges of wound care for a PLWD exhibiting aggression.

CONCLUSION

There is a gap in the literature regarding PLWD and chronic wounds other than pressure injuries that are common in older adults (e.g. diabetic foot ulcers, venous leg ulcers). Research is warranted among those PLWD who live alone and those who receive wound care from family caregivers to understand experiences. Knowledge can inform the development of future novel interventions for wound healing. Future research is needed regarding chronic wounds in those who exhibit behavioural and psychological symptoms of dementia.

RELEVANCE TO CLINICAL PRACTICE

Nurses that care for chronic wounds in PLWD can contribute their knowledge to include information in guidelines on best care practices and contribute their perspective to research teams for future research.

Accuracy of two prognostic indexes to predict mortality in older adults with advanced dementia

Dementia is a cause of disability among older adults. Accessing advanced dementia prognosis is a challenge.

A study protocol for the development of a multivariable model predicting 6- and 12-month mortality for people with dementia living in residential aged care facilities (RACFs) in Australia

BACKGROUND

For residential aged care facility (RACF) residents with dementia, lack of prognostic guidance presents a significant challenge for end of life care planning. In an attempt to address this issue, models have been developed to assess mortality risk for people with advanced dementia, predominantly using long-term care minimum data set (MDS) information from the USA. A limitation of these models is that the information contained within the MDS used for model development was not collected for the purpose of identifying prognostic factors. The models developed using MDS data have had relatively modest ability to discriminate mortality risk and are difficult to apply outside the MDS setting. This study will aim to develop a model to estimate 6- and 12-month mortality risk for people with dementia from prognostic indicators recorded during usual clinical care provided in RACFs in Australia.

METHODS

A secondary analysis will be conducted for a cohort of people with dementia from RACFs participating in a cluster-randomized trial of a palliative care education intervention (IMPETUS-D). Ten prognostic indicator variables were identified based on a literature review of clinical features associated with increased mortality for people with dementia living in RACFs. Variables will be extracted from RACF files at baseline and mortality measured at 6 and 12 months after baseline data collection. A multivariable logistic regression model will be developed for 6- and 12-month mortality outcome measures using backwards elimination with a fractional polynomial approach for continuous variables. Internal validation will be undertaken using bootstrapping methods. Discrimination of the model for 6- and 12-month mortality will be presented as receiver operating curves with c statistics. Calibration curves will be presented comparing observed and predicted event rates for each decile of risk as well as flexible calibration curves derived using loess-based functions.

DISCUSSION

The model developed in this study aims to improve clinical assessment of mortality risk for people with dementia living in RACFs in Australia. Further external validation in different populations will be required before the model could be developed into a tool to assist with clinical decision-making in the future.

Prognostic Awareness, Disease and Palliative Understanding Among Caregivers of Patients With Dementia

BACKGROUND

Persons with dementia (PwD) often have significant cognitive deficits and functional limitations, requiring substantial caregiver assistance. Given the high symptom burden and terminal nature of dementia, good prognostic awareness and integration of palliative care (PC) is needed.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate prognostic awareness, disease, and PC understanding among caregivers of PwD and to assess for improvements in routine care.

DESIGN

A cross-sectional study of 2 cohorts at a single-academic medical center. Surveys were mailed to 200 caregivers of PwD in 2012 (cohort 1). Surveys were sent to new subset of caregivers of PwD (n = 80) in 2018 (cohort 2) to assess trends over time.

RESULTS

A total of 154 of caregivers completed the survey (response rate 55%). Compared to 2012, a higher proportion of caregivers in 2018 reported having conversations about prognosis with PwD's physicians (25% in 2012 vs 45% in 2018; P = .027). However, a large percentage (43% in 2012 and 40% in 2018) of caregivers reported no understanding of the PwD's prognosis. Despite most stating dementia was not curable, only 39% in 2012 and 52% in 2018 (P = .015) understood that dementia was a terminal disease. In addition, only 32% in 2012 and 40% in 2018 (P = .39) felt that they were knowledgeable about PC.

CONCLUSIONS

Prognostic discussions between caregivers of PwD and the PwD's physicians may be occurring more often; however, a high percentage of caregivers report a poor understanding about the terminal nature of dementia and the role of PC.

Palliative Care for Dementia: 2020 Update

Dementia management is complicated by neuropsychiatric symptoms such that the longitudinal care of a psychiatrist or other mental health provider is often an essential part of patient care and a major source of family support. Given the importance of end-of-life continuity of care, the involvement of psychiatry in palliative and hospice services affords an important opportunity for growth. Common challenges involve sharing prognostic information with patients and families to aid in advance planning, and management of persistent pain and nutritional issues. Future research will yield important new insights and guidelines for care.