Carcinoembryonic antigen as a predictor of pathologic response and a prognostic factor in locally advanced rectal cancer patients treated with preoperative chemoradiotherapy and surgery

The Crying Need for a Better Response Assessment in Rectal Cancer

OPINION STATEMENT

Since total neoadjuvant treatment achieves almost 30% pathologic complete response, organ preservation has been increasingly debated for good responders after neoadjuvant treatment for patients diagnosed with rectal cancer. Two organ preservation strategies are available: a watch and wait strategy and a local excision strategy including patients with a near clinical complete response. A major issue is the selection of patients according to the initial tumor staging or the response assessment. Despite modern imaging improvement, identifying complete response remains challenging. A better selection could be possible by radiomics analyses, exploiting numerous image features to feed data characterization algorithms. The subsequent step is to include baseline and/or pre-therapeutic MRI, PET-CT, and CT radiomics added to the patients' clinicopathological data, inside machine learning (ML) prediction models, with predictive or prognostic purposes. These models could be further improved by the addition of new biomarkers such as circulating tumor biomarkers, molecular profiling, or pathological immune biomarkers.

Prognostic significance of carcinoembryonic antigen combined with carbohydrate antigen 19-9 following neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer

AIM

The clinical significance of carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) combined with carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) in patients with rectal cancer is not well established. The aim of this study was to determine the prognostic value of these combined tumour markers in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT).

METHOD

A total of 687 consecutive patients with LARC who underwent nCRT and radical surgery were analysed. Tumour characteristics, recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) were compared according to the number of elevated tumour markers measured before and after nCRT. In addition, the prognostic significance of perioperative changes in the combined tumour markers was further evaluated.

RESULT

The RFS and OS rates decreased in a stepwise manner in association with the number of elevated pre- and post-nCRT tumour markers (all p < 0.05). Multivariate analysis showed that only the number of elevated post-nCRT tumour markers was an independent prognostic factor (both p < 0.05). For 311 patients with elevated pre-nCRT tumour markers, normalization of the tumour markers after nCRT was an independent prognostic protective factor (both p < 0.05), and patients with both markers elevated post-nCRT had a 2.5- and 3.7-fold increased risk of recurrence and death, respectively (p < 0.05). Furthermore, normalization of post-nCRT tumour markers after surgery was also closely related to an improved prognosis.

CONCLUSION

This combination of post-nCRT tumour markers can accurately predict the long-term survival of patients with LARC treated with nCRT and curative resection, and normalization of the combined tumour markers after either nCRT or surgery was associated with better survival.

Biomarkers and cell-based models to predict the outcome of neoadjuvant therapy for rectal cancer patients

Rectal cancer constitutes approximately one-third of all colorectal cancers and contributes to considerable mortality globally. In contrast to colon cancer, the standard treatment for localized rectal cancer often involves neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy. Tumour response rates to treatment show substantial inter-patient heterogeneity, indicating a need for treatment stratification. Consequently researchers have attempted to establish new means for predicting tumour response in order to assist in treatment decisions. In this review we have summarized published findings regarding potential biomarkers to predict neoadjuvant treatment response for rectal cancer tumours. In addition, we describe cell-based models that can be utilized both for treatment prediction and for studying the complex mechanisms involved.

Prognostic Impact of Carcinoembryonic Antigen Levels in Rectal Cancer Patients Who Had Received Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy

PURPOSE

Carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) is a useful marker for rectal cancer. The aim of this study was to investigate the prognostic impact of CEA level according to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) in rectal cancer patients who underwent radical surgery.

METHODS

A total of 245 patients with rectal cancer who underwent radical surgery were retrospectively evaluated. Serum CEA level was measured preoperatively and postoperatively. We compared survival outcomes based on CEA level before and after surgery according to nCRT.

RESULTS

Of the 245 patients, elevation of CEA level was observed preoperatively in 79 and postoperatively in 30, respectively. Eighty-seven (35.5%) patients received nCRT, and elevated CEA level was a significant prognostic factor both before and after surgery. In patients who had not received nCRT, an elevated CEA level was a significant prognostic factor before surgery but was not significant after surgery. In a multivariate analysis for prognostic factors, elevation of preoperative CEA level was an independent prognostic factor of disease-free survival (DFS) regardless of nCRT. Postoperative CEA level was an independent prognostic factor of DFS in patients who had received nCRT but was not a factor in patients who had not received nCRT.

CONCLUSION

Serum CEA level was an independent prognostic factor both preoperatively and postoperatively in rectal cancer patients who had received nCRT.

Predicting pathological response to chemoradiotherapy for rectal cancer: a systematic review

Introduction: Pathological complete response (pCR) rates of approximately 20% following neoadjuvant long-course chemoradiotherapy for rectal cancer have given rise to non-operative or watch-and-wait (W&W) management. To improve outcomes there has been significant research into predictors of response. The goal is to optimize selection for W&W, avoid chemoradiotherapy in those who won't benefit and improve treatment to maximize the clinical complete response (cCR) rate and the number of patients who can be considered for W&W.Areas covered: A systematic review of articles published 2008-2018 and indexed in PubMed, Embase or Medline was performed to identify predictors of pathological response (including pCR and recognized tumor regression grades) to fluoropyrimidine-based chemoradiotherapy in patients who underwent total mesorectal excision for rectal cancer. Evidence for clinical, biomarker and radiological predictors is discussed as well as potential future directions.Expert opinion: Our current ability to predict the response to chemoradiotherapy for rectal cancer is very limited. cCR of 40% has been achieved with total neoadjuvant therapy. If neoadjuvant treatment for rectal cancer continues to improve it is possible that the treatment for rectal cancer may eventually parallel that of anal squamous cell carcinoma, with surgery reserved for the minority of patients who don't respond to chemoradiotherapy.

Predictive factors associated with complete pathological response after neoadjuvant treatment for rectal cancer

PURPOSE

A proportion of 10 to 30% of patients treated by chemoradiotherapy followed by total mesorectal excision surgery for a locally advanced rectal cancer can achieve a complete pathological response. We aimed to identify predictive factors associated with complete pathological response or no response and to assess the impact of each response on survival rates.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Patients treated with long course chemoradiotherapy for locally advanced and/or node positive rectal cancer from 2010 to 2016 were retrospectively reviewed. Statistical analysis was carried out to determine predictors of tumor regression and treatment outcomes.

RESULTS

Records were available on 70 patients. In the univariate analysis, clinical factors associated with complete tumor response were tumor mobility in digital rectal examination (P=0.047), a limited parietal invasion (P=0.001), clinically negative lymph node (P<0.001) and a circumferential extent greater than 50% (P=0.001). On the other hand, a T4 classification and an endoscopic tumor size greater than 6cm were associated with no response to treatment (P=0.049 and P=0.017 respectively). On multivariate analysis, T2 clinical classification and N0 statement before treatment were independent predictive factors of pathologic complete response (P<0.001 and P=0.001) and a delayed surgery after 12 weeks was associated with no response to treatment (P=0.001).

CONCLUSION

The identification of predictive factors of histological response may help clinicians to predict the prognosis and to propose organ preservation for good responders.

CA724 predicts overall survival in locally advanced gastric cancer patients with neoadjuvant chemotherapy

Background

Serum tumor markers including AFU, AFP, CEA, CA199, CA125 and CA724, are of great importance in the diagnosis, prognostic prediction and recurrence monitoring of gastrointestinal malignancies. However, their significance in gastric cancer (GC) patients with neoadjuvant therapy (NCT) is still uncertain. The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive value of these six tumor markers in locally advanced GC patients who underwent NCT and curative surgery.

Methods

In total, 290 locally advanced GC patients who underwent NCT and D2 radical gastrectomy were retrospectively analyzed. Data on their tumor markers before (pre-) and after (post-) NCT and pathological characteristics were extracted from the database of our hospital. The optimal cutoff values of the six tumor markers were calculated by the ROC curve and Youden index. Their predictive significance was analyzed and survival curves for overall survival (OS) were obtained by the Kaplan-Meier method. Associations between categorical variables were explored by the chi-square test or Fisher’s exact test. Multivariate analyses were performed by the Cox regression model.

Results

Pre- and post-CA199, −CA125 and -CA724 could predict overall survival (all P < 0.05), but only the change (diff-) of CA199 was related to prognosis (P = 0.05). In the multivariable analysis, pre- (P = 0.014) and post-CA724 (P = 0.036) remained significant, though diff-CA724 was not an independent prognostic factor (P = 0.581). In addition, pre- and post-CA199, −CA125 and -CA724 were associated with lymph node metastasis (N- vs N+) and pathological stage (I-II vs III) (all P < 0.05). Moreover, post-CA724 was related to the vascular or lymphatic invasion (P = 0.019), while pre-CA724 was not (P = 0.082). However, AFU, AFP and CEA showed no association with survival (P > 0.05).

Conclusions

CA724 is an independent factor for prognosis and could be used to predict ypN and ypTNM stage in locally advanced GC patients undergoing NCT and curative resection.

Nomogram for predicting pathological complete response and tumor downstaging in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer on the basis of a randomized clinical trial

Background

Preoperative fluoropyrimidine with radiotherapy was regarded as the standard of care for locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC). The model for predicting pCR in LARC patients was based on standard treatment only. This study aimed to establish a nomogram with pretherapeutic parameters and different neoadjuvant regimens for predicting pathologic complete response (pCR) and tumor downstaging or good response (ypT0-2N0M0) after receiving neoadjuvant treatment in patients with LARC based on a randomized clinical trial.

Methods

Between January 2011 and February 2015, 309 patients with rectal cancer were enrolled from a prospective randomized study (NCT01211210). All pretreatment clinical parameters were collected to build a nomogram for predicting pCR and tumor downstaging. The model was subjected to bootstrap internal validation. The predictive performance of the model was assessed with concordance index (C-index) and calibration plots.

Results

Of the 309 patients, 53 (17.2%) achieved pCR and 132 (42.7%) patients were classified as tumor downstaging with ypT0-2N0M0. Based on the logistic-regression analysis and clinical consideration, tumor length (P = 0.005), tumor circumferential extent (P = 0.036), distance from the anal verge (P = 0.019), and neoadjuvant treatment regimen (P < 0.001) showed independent association with pCR following neoadjuvant treatment. The tumor length (P = 0.015), tumor circumferential extent (P = 0.001), distance from the anal verge (P = 0.032), clinical T category (P = 0.012), and neoadjuvant treatment regimen (P = 0.001) were significantly associated with good tumor downstaging (ypT0-2N0M0). Nomograms were developed to predict the probability of pCR and tumor downstaging with a C-index of 0.802 (95% confidential interval [CI], 0.736–0.867) and 0.730 (95% CI, 0.672–0.784). Internal validation revealed good performance of the calibration plots.

Conclusions

The nomogram provided individual prediction responses to different preoperative treatment for patients with rectal cancer. This model might help physicians in selecting an optimized treatment, but warrants further external validation.

Predictive Value of FOLFOX-Based Regimen, Long Interval, Hemoglobin Levels and Clinical Negative Nodal Status, and Postchemoradiotherapy CEA Levels for Pathological Complete Response in Patients with Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer after Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy

We aimed to identify predictors of a pathological complete response (pCR) in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) following a multimodality therapy. We retrospectively reviewed 236 patients with LARC treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (CRT) followed by radical resection from January 2011 to December 2017. Patients were administered CRT, which comprised radiotherapy and chemotherapy with an oxaliplatin plus 5-fluorouracil- or fluoropyrimidine-based regimen. Clinical factors were correlated with treatment response. The multivariate logistic regression revealed that a negative nodal stage (odds ratio (OR) = 3.2, P=0.0135), a high hemoglobin level (>10 g/dL) during neoadjuvant CRT (OR = 3.067, P=0.0125), an oxaliplatin-containing neoadjuvant CRT (OR = 5.385, P=0.0044), a long interval (>8 weeks) between radiotherapy and surgery (OR = 1.135, P=0.0469), and a post-CRT CEA ≤2 ng/mL (OR = 2.891, P=0.0233) were the independent predictors of increased pCR rates. The prediction nomogram was developed according to the above independent variables. The concordance index was 0.74, and the calibration curve showed good agreement. In summary, negative nodal stages, high hemoglobin levels during treatment, oxaliplatin-containing neoadjuvant therapy, a long radiotherapy-surgery interval (>8 weeks), and post-CRT CEA levels ≤2 ng/mL were favorable predictors of a pCR. This prediction nomogram might be crucial for patients with LARC undergoing a multimodality therapy.

Predictive value of serum and tissue carcinoembryonic antigens for radiologic response and oncologic outcome of rectal cancer

PURPOSE

The clinical importance of tissue CEA levels for predicting tumor response to preoperative chemoradiotherapy (CRT) for rectal cancer has not been studied.

METHODS

Serum CEA levels and tissue CEA expressions for 117 patients who underwent preoperative CRT for rectal cancer, were prospectively collected and analyzed at a tertiary university hospital RESULTS: The median follow-up time was 49 months (range, 3-61 months), and the 5-year disease-free survival (DFS) rate was 68.3 %. In multivariate analysis, serum CEA (log-transformed value) [odds ratio (OR) = 0.741, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.588-40.422, P =  0.021], tissue CEA/GAPDH ratio (OR = 3.673, 95 % CI 1.316-12.081, P =  0.019), and tumor circumferentiality (OR = 2.960, 955 CI, 1.101-8.999, P =  0.040) were the independent predictors for good tumor response to CRT. Serum CEA level was significant prognostic factor for DFS (P =  0.004) in multivariate analysis. However, tissue CEA was not associated with DFS.

CONCLUSIONS

Both serum and tissue CEA were significant factors for predicting good tumor response following preoperative CRT. However, tissue CEA was not associated with the oncologic outcome. The possibility of radiologic resistance of high CEA tumors is expected to be investigated through further studies.

Surgical treatment following neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy in locally advanced rectal cancer

Colorectal cancer is a major public health problem worldwide, and locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) is known for its poor prognosis. A multimodal treatment approach is the only method to achieve satisfactory local recurrence and survival rates in LARC. Determining which therapeutic modality for LARC has the most satisfactory influence on quality of life and disease outcome is still controversial. LARC treatment is subject to continuous advancement due to the development of new and better diagnostic tools, radiotherapy techniques, and chemotherapeutic agents. Herein, we review various therapeutic modalities for LARC from several aspects. In addition to radiotherapy techniques such as neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NCRT), we discuss the progress of chemotherapy, appropriate time interval between NCRT and surgery, relationship between tumor location and NCRT efficacy/safety, wait-and-watch policy, and predictors of treatment response following NCRT. Because of the controversies and unanswered questions regarding NCRT treatments for LARC, additional investigations are required to determine which therapeutic approach is the most feasible for LARC patients.

Pretreatment blood biomarkers predict pathologic responses to neo-CRT in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer

Aim: To evaluate the value of pretreatment blood biomarkers in predicting pathologic responses to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (neo-CRT) in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer. Materials & methods: We conducted logistic regression analysis and receiver operating characteristic to assess the predictive value of blood biomarkers. The outcome was defined by the pathologic complete response and good response. Results: Carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) (p < 0.001), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (p = 0.024), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (p = 0.006) and lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR) (p < 0.001) were significant predictors of pathologic complete response, with area under the curve of 0.785, 0.794, 0.740 and 0.913, respectively; CEA (p = 0.007) and LMR (p < 0.001) correlated significantly with good response, with area under the curve of 0.743 and 0.771, respectively. Conclusion: Lower LMR and higher CEA, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio before treatment could predict poorer pathologic response to neo-CRT in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer.

Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratios as predictive and prognostic markers in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiation

Background

A standard therapy for locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) includes fluoropyrimidine (FP)-based neoadjuvant chemoradiation (nCRT). Previous studies have inconsistently demonstrated that baseline neutrophil- and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratios (NLR and PLR) are predictive of response to nCRT or prognostic of outcomes in LARC.

Methods

We reviewed patients with LARC undergoing nCRT followed by surgery from 2005 to 2013 across 8 Canadian cancer centres. Outcome measures of interest were pathological complete response (pCR), disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS). Logistic regression and Cox proportional hazard models were used to assess for associations between baseline hematologic variables and outcomes.

Results

Of 1527 identified patients, 1237 (81%) were included in the DFS/OS analysis. Median age was 62 (range 23–88), 69% were male, and 80% had performance status (PS) 0–1. Twenty-six percent had elevated NLR (≥ 4), and 66% had elevated PLR (≥ 150). Ninety-seven percent of patients received FP-based nCRT, with 96% receiving ≥44 Gy. 81% completed neoadjuvant chemotherapy and 95% completed neoadjuvant radiotherapy, with a pCR rate of 18%. After a median follow-up time of 71 months, 8% developed local recurrence, 22% developed distant recurrence and 24% died. 5-year DFS and OS were 69% (95% CI 66–72%) and 79% (95% CI 77–82%), respectively. In multivariate analyses, elevated baseline NLR and PLR were neither prognostic for DFS and OS nor predictive of pCR.

Conclusions

NLR and PLR were not found to be independently prognostic for DFS or OS and did not predict for pCR in patients with LARC undergoing nCRT followed by surgery.

Improved antibody-guided surgery with a near-infrared dye on a pegylated linker for CEA-positive tumors

Real-time intraoperative image-guided cancer surgery promises to improve oncologic outcomes. Tumor-specific antibodies conjugated with near-infrared (NIR) fluorophores have demonstrated the potential to enhance visualization of solid tumor margins and metastatic disease; however, multiple challenges remain, including improvement in probe development for clinical utility. We have developed an NIR-IR800 dye on a PEGylated linker (sidewinder) conjugated to the humanized anti-carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) antibody (M5A) with extended in vivo serum and tumor persistence. The anti-CEA M5A-sidewinder has a high dye-to-antibody ratio (average of 7 per antibody) that allows, in an orthotopic implanted human pancreatic cancer mouse model increased tumor fluorescence, higher tumor-to-background ratio and extends the surgical scheduling window compared to current antibody dye conjugates. These preclinical results demonstrate the potential of this probe for fluorescence-guided surgery of CEA-positive gastrointestinal cancers.

The Relationship between Primary Gross Tumor Volume and Tumor Response of Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer: pGTV as a More Accurate Tumor Size Indicator

Purpose: To identify the clinical predictive factors of tumor response and to evaluate the significance of primary gross tumor volume (pGTV), obtained from radiotherapy planning, in predicting tumor response. Materials and Methods: We retrospectively analyzed data of consecutive locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) patients who were treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) followed by radical surgery at our institution between March 2009 and December 2017. We identify independent predictors of tumor response to nCRT by statistical analysis. Disease-free survival (DFS) starting from the time of surgery was calculated by the Kaplan-Meier method, and log-rank tests were performed to compare DFS between patients with superior and inferior tumor response. Results: Overall, 185 LARC patients received nCRT, of whom 89 (48.11%) achieved superior tumor response. Diminutive pGTV (p = 0.038) and distance from the anal verge (DAV) (p = 0.006) were independent predictive factors of superior tumor response. Meanwhile, pGTV can be regarded as an independent predictor of pathologic complete response (pCR) (p = 0.036). The log-rank test revealed that DFS was longer in the diminutive pGTV group than in the giant pGTV group (p = 0.001). Conclusions: pGTV, as a measure of tumor size, is not only an important prognostic indicator but also an independent predictive factor of tumor response, even pCR.

Prognostic Role of Carcinoembryonic Antigen Level after Preoperative Chemoradiotherapy in Patients with Rectal Cancer

BACKGROUND

The prognostic role of post-chemoradiotherapy (CRT) carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level is not clear. We evaluated the prognostic significance of post-CRT CEA level in patients with rectal cancer after preoperative CRT.

METHODS

We reviewed 659 consecutive patients who underwent preoperative CRT and total mesorectal excision for non-metastatic rectal cancer. Patients were categorized into two groups according to post-CRT serum CEA level: low CEA (< 5 ng/mL) and high CEA (≥ 5 ng/mL).

RESULTS

Median post-CRT CEA level was 1.7 ng/mL (range, 0.1-207.0). A high post-CRT level was significantly associated with ypStage, ypT category, tumor regression grade, and pre-CRT CEA level. The 5-year overall survival rate of the 659 patients was 87.8% with a median follow-up period of 57.0 months (range, 1.4-176.4). When the post-CRT CEA groups were divided into groups according to pre-CRT CEA level, the 5-year overall survival rates were significantly different (P < 0.001 and P = 0.001, respectively). Post-CRT CEA level was an independent prognostic factor for overall survival. Multivariate analysis revealed that operation method, differentiation, perineural invasion, postoperative chemotherapy, tumor regression grade, and post-CRT CEA level were independent prognostic factors for overall survival.

CONCLUSION

The level of serum CEA after preoperative CRT was an independent prognostic factor for overall survival in patients with rectal cancer.

Carcinoembryonic antigen as a marker of radioresistance in colorectal cancer: a potential role of macrophages

Background

We sought to identify the carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) as a marker of radioresistance in rectal cancer.

Methods

From July 1997 to January 2008, 104 patients with stage II or III rectal cancer who were treated with post-operative radiotherapy (PORT) were included in this study. The doses of radiotherapy ranged from 45 to 54.6 Gy. The CEA levels were measured before surgery. We analyzed the actuarial rates of overall survival (OS), distant metastasis (DM), and local recurrence (LR) using Kaplan-Meier curves. Multivariate analyses were performed with Cox regression models. We used THP-1 monocyte cell lines for macrophage differentiation (M0, M1 or M2). The RNA extracted from the macrophages was analyzed via a genomic method in the core laboratory. The radiosensitivities of CEA-rich LS1034 cells were compared between cells with and without the conditioned media from CEA-stimulated macrophages.

Results

Preoperative CEA levels ≥10 ng/mL were independent predictive factors for OS (p = 0.005), DM (p = 0.026), and LR (p = 0.004). The OS rates among the patients with pretreatment CEA levels < 10 ng/mL and ≥10 ng/mL were 64.5% and 35.9% (p = 0.004), respectively. The corresponding rates of DM were 40.6% and 73.1% (p = 0.024). The corresponding rates of LR were 6.6% and 33.9% (p = 0.002). In the M0 macrophages, exogenous CEA elicited a dose-response relationship with M2 differentiation. In the CEA-stimulated M0 cells, some mRNAs were upregulated by as much as 5-fold, including MMP12, GDF15, and JAG1. In the CEA-stimulated M2 cells, a 4-fold up-regulation of GADD45G mRNA was noted. The conditioned media from the CEA-stimulated M2 cells elicited an increase in the numbers of LS180, SW620, and LS1034 cells after irradiation. CEA caused the M2 differentiation of the macrophages.

Conclusion

Pretreatment CEA levels ≥10 ng/mL are a significant risk factor for OS, DM, and LR following PORT for rectal cancer. CEA causes radioresistance in the presence of M2 macrophages. More comprehensive examinations prior to surgery and intensive adjuvant therapy are suggested for patients with CEA levels ≥10 ng/mL. Further studies of these mechanisms are needed.

Mean Corpuscular Volume as a Predictive Factor of Response to Preoperative Chemoradiotherapy in Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer

Background

The aim of this study was to identify if blood routine parameters and serum tumor marker are potential predictive factors for tumor response to preoperative chemoradiotherapy (CRT) in locally advanced rectal cancer.

Materials and Methods

55 locally advanced rectal cancer patients were treated with preoperative CRT in this study. The total dose of preoperative radiotherapy was 45 Gy in 25 fractions of 1.8 in 5 weeks. All patients concurrently received 825 mg/m² capecitabine orally twice daily on days 1 to 14 and 22 to 35. Total mesorectal excision (TME) was performed 6 weeks after the end of preoperative CRT. Blood routine examination and serum tumor marker were checked before preoperative CRT. Tumor response to preoperative CRT was evaluated with the semiquantitative tumor regression grading (TRG) system proposed by Dworak criteria according to histopathological examination of the surgical specimens. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to test the association between blood routine parameters and serum tumor marker and tumor response to preoperative CRT.

Results

Univariate logistic regression analysis revealed that differentiation, lymphocyte, LMR, MCV, PLR, and CEA have been significantly associated with tumor response to preoperative CRT. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that differentiation, MCV, and CEA were the predictors of tumor response to preoperative CRT. According to the ROC analysis, the AUC of differentiation, MCV, and CEA was 0.794, 0.802, and 0.723, respectively. Optimal cutoff points for MCV and CEA were 87.65 fl and 4.05 ng/ml, respectively.

Conclusion

MCV is a potential predictive factor for tumor response to preoperative chemoradiation in locally advanced rectal cancer.

Relations of Changes in Serum Carcinoembryonic Antigen Levels before and after Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy and after Surgery to Histologic Response and Outcomes in Patients with Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer

OBJECTIVES

The histologic response to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) has been intimately related to outcomes in locally advanced rectal cancer. Serum carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) levels change after nCRT and after surgery as compared with before nCRT.

METHODS

The subjects were 149 patients with locally advanced rectal cancer who received nCRT between 2005 and 2013. The patients were divided into 4 groups according to the serum CEA levels: group 1, 55 patients with negative serum CEA levels before nCRT; group 2, 41 patients with positive serum CEA levels before nCRT that became negative after nCRT; group 3, 37 patients with positive serum CEA levels after nCRT that became negative after surgery; and group 4, 16 patients with positive serum CEA levels after nCRT as well as after surgery.

RESULTS

Pathological complete response, T downstaging, and tumor shrinkage were significantly higher in group 1 than in other groups. Disease-free survival was significantly poorer in group 4. The lack of a decrease in the serum CEA level in group 4 was most likely attributed to the persistence of micrometastases outside the resection field.

CONCLUSIONS

Changes in serum CEA levels measured before nCRT, after nCRT, and after surgery can be used to reliably predict the histologic response to nCRT and outcomes.

Density of CD8+ lymphocytes in biopsy samples combined with the circulating lymphocyte ratio predicts pathologic complete response to chemoradiotherapy for rectal cancer

Objectives

The systemic status and local immune status, as determined by the neutrophil–lymphocyte ratio (NLR) or the lymphocyte ratio (LYMR) and tumor-infiltrating lymphocyte (TIL) count, respectively, have been suggested as predictors of the tumor response to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) in rectal cancer, although the utility of these measures remains controversial. We aimed to investigate the values of the LYMR, NLR and TIL count and their combinations (TIL–LYMR/TIL–NLR) in predicting pathologic complete response (pCR) after nCRT.

Patients and methods

Pretreatment biopsy samples and data from the blood tests of 92 patients with rectal cancer who underwent curative resection after nCRT were retrospectively obtained. CD8+ TILs were immunostained using an antibody against CD8. The density of CD8+ TILs was recorded as the number of CD8+ T cells per square millimeter, and the results were classified as either “high” or “low”. The LYMR and NLR were calculated using pretreatment blood test data and categorized into either “high” or “low” groups. TIL–LYMR was graded as “low,” “mid” or “high” when neither, one or both the CD8+ TIL count and LYMR were “high,” respectively. TIL–NLR was graded similarly. The associations between TILs and LYMR, NLR and their combinations (TIL–LYMR/TIL–NLR) were evaluated.

Results

pCR was significantly associated with a high LYMR, a low NLR and increased chemotherapy cycles (P=0.039, P=0.043 and P=0.015, respectively), but not with the CD8+ TIL count or carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level (P=0.100 and P=0.590, respectively). Additionally, 40% of patients with high LYMR and 40.7% with low NLR achieved pCR, whereas only 19.7% with low LYMR and 20.3% with high NLR did so. When the combinations were assessed, TIL–LYMR showed a positive correlation with pCR (P=0.038), while no association between TIL–NLR and pCR was found (P=0.916). In multivariate analysis, TIL–LYMR remained an independent predictor of pCR (odds ratio [OR]=1.833, 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.069–3.142, P=0.028).

Conclusion

High LYMR, low NLR and high TIL–LYMR at baseline are predictive of pCR to nCRT for patients with rectal cancer. These parameters may help identify pCR patients and provide additional information for therapeutic decision-making.

A New Prediction Model for Local Recurrence After Curative Rectal Cancer Surgery: Development and Validation as an Asian Collaborative Study

BACKGROUND

Local recurrence is one of the remaining problems in rectal and rectosigmoid cancer, and it is sometimes difficult to treat.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to explore various factors that are highly related to local recurrence and to develop a new prediction model for local recurrence after curative resection.

DESIGN

This is a retrospective cohort study SETTINGS:: This study was conducted at 2 academic hospitals in Japan and Korea.

PATIENTS

A total of 2237 patients with stage I to III rectal and rectosigmoid cancer who underwent a curative operation with a negative circumferential margin were selected.

INTERVENTIONS

Surgical treatment was the intervention.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Local recurrence was the primary outcome measure.

RESULTS

A total of 1232 patients were selected, and rectosigmoid cancer with rare local recurrence (2/221) was excluded. A different set of 792 patients with rectal cancer were chosen for validation. Multivariate analysis showed the following factors as significant for local recurrence: poorly differentiated tumor (HR, 11.2; 95% CI, 4.5-28.0), tumor depth (HR, 5.0), lymph node metastasis (HR, 4.1), operative procedure (HR, 3.2), postoperative complications (HR, 2.9), tumor location (HR, 2.6), and CEA level (HR, 2.4); a new prediction score was created by using these factors. A poorly differentiated tumor was assigned 2 points, and all other factors were assigned 1 point each. Patients who scored more than 5 points (n = 21) were judged as "high risk," with a 2-year local recurrence rate of 66.5%. The new predictive model could also separate the patients into different risk groups in the validation set. The high-risk group had higher recurrence rates than medium- and low-risk groups (2-year local recurrence rate: 41%, 15%, and 2.1%).

LIMITATIONS

This study was limited by its retrospective nature and potential for selection bias.

CONCLUSIONS

Seven factors were shown to be significantly correlated with the local recurrence of rectal cancer, and the usefulness of this new prediction model was demonstrated. See Video Abstract at http://links.lww.com/DCR/A429.

Pre-treatment carcinoembryonic antigen and outcome of patients with rectal cancer receiving neo-adjuvant chemo-radiation and surgical resection: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Neo-adjuvant chemo-radiation is the standard of care for patients with locally advanced rectal carcinoma. The aim of the present paper is to evaluate the relationship of the baseline serologic concentration of the carcinoembryonic antigen with the outcome. Data sources included MEDLINE and Web of Science databases. A systematic search of the databases by a predefined criterion has been conducted. Chemo-radiation followed by surgical resection of rectal tumors was the intervention of interest. From selected studies, the relationships between carcinoembryonic antigen and pathologic complete response, disease-free survival and overall survival were assessed. Carcinoembryonic antigen correlated significantly and inversely with the rate of pathologic complete responses (OR 2.00). Similar to this relationship, a low baseline carcinoembryonic antigen concentration was associated with a better disease-free survival (OR 1.88) and a better overall survival (OR 1.85). Heterogeneity of studies and publication bias were considerable in evaluating the relationship of baseline carcinoembryonic antigen and pathologic complete response. Baseline carcinoembryonic antigen should be regarded as a predictor of outcome of patients undergoing neo-adjuvant chemo-radiation. A calibration of the cutoff value from 5 to 3 ng/ml appears more appropriate to this patient population and should be evaluated in prospective trials.

Predictive and Prognostic Molecular Biomarkers for Response to Neoadjuvant Chemoradiation in Rectal Cancer

The standard of care in locally advanced rectal cancer is neoadjuvant chemoradiation (nCRT) followed by radical surgery. Response to nCRT varies among patients and pathological complete response is associated with better outcome. However, there is a lack of effective methods to select rectal cancer patients who would or would not have a benefit from nCRT. The utility of clinicopathological and radiological features are limited due to lack of adequate sensitivity and specificity. Molecular biomarkers have the potential to predict response to nCRT at an early time point, but none have currently reached the clinic. Integration of diverse types of biomarkers including clinicopathological and imaging features, identification of mechanistic link to tumor biology, and rigorous validation using samples which represent disease heterogeneity, will allow to develop a sensitive and cost-effective molecular biomarker panel for precision medicine in rectal cancer. Here, we aim to review the recent advance in tissue- and blood-based molecular biomarker research and illustrate their potential in predicting nCRT response in rectal cancer.

Potential predictive factors for pathologic complete response after the neoadjuvant treatment of rectal adenocarcinoma: a single center experience

OBJECTIVE

: To assess the response rate of patients with rectal adenocarcinoma to neoadjuvant therapy and to identify the predictors of histological regression after neoadjuvant radiotherapy (RT) or concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT).

METHODS

: This study recruited 64 patients. The patients had resectable cancer of the lower and the middle rectum (T3/T4 and/or N+) without distant metastasis and received neoadjuvant RT or CCRT followed by radical surgery with total mesorectal excision (TME) between January 2006 and December 2011. The patients were classified into non-response (NR), partial response (PR), and pathologic complete response (pCR) based on the Dworak tumor regression grading system.

RESULTS

: The median age of patients was 57 years (ranging from 22 to 85). A total of 24 patients were treated with neoadjuvant CCRT, whereas 40 patients were treated with RT alone. Abdominoperineal resection (APR) was performed on 29 patients (45%). Anterior resection with TME was performed on 34 patients (53%). One patient had local resection. Histologically, 12 (19%), 24 (73%), and 28 (44%) patients exhibited pCR, PR, and NR, respectively. Univariate analysis revealed that the predictors of tumor regression were as follows: the absence of lymph node involvement from initial imaging (cN0) (P=0.021); normal initial carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level (P=0.01); hemoglobin level ≥12 g/dl (P=0.009); CCRT (P=0.021); and tumor downstaging in imaging (P=0.001). Multivariate analysis showed that the main predictors of pCR were CT combined with neoadjuvant RT, cN0 stage, and tumor regression on imaging.

CONCLUSIONS

: Identifying the predictors of pCR following neoadjuvant therapy aids the selection of responsive patients for non-aggressive surgical treatment and possible surveillance.

Elevated platelet count as predictor of recurrence in rectal cancer patients undergoing preoperative chemoradiotherapy followed by surgery

The impact of systemic inflammatory response (SIR) on prognostic and predictive outcome in rectal cancer after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (CRT) has not been fully investigated. This retrospective study enrolled 89 patients with locally advanced rectal cancer who underwent neoadjuvant CRT and for whom platelet (PLT) counts and SIR status [neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and platelet/lymphocyte ratio (PLR)] were available. Both clinical values of PLT and SIR status in rectal cancer patients were investigated. Elevated PLT, NLR, PLR, and pathologic TNM stage III [ypN(+)] were associated with significantly poor overall survival (OS). Elevated PLT, NLR, and ypN(+) were shown to independently predict OS. Elevated PLT and ypN(+) significantly predicted poor disease-free survival (DFS). Elevated PLT was identified as the only independent predictor of DFS. PLT counts are a promising pre-CRT biomarker for predicting recurrence and poor prognosis in rectal cancer.

Prognostic value of parameters derived from white blood cell and differential counts in patients receiving palliative radiotherapy

The aim of the present study was to identify white blood cell (WBC) parameters with high prognostic value for the survival of patients receiving palliative radiotherapy. The prognostic value of seven parameters derived from WBC and differential counts was retrospectively evaluated in patients who underwent palliative radiotherapy between October, 2010 and June, 2013. The analyzed parameters were the total WBC count, the absolute and relative lymphocyte count, the absolute and relative neutrophil count, and the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte and lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratios. Following univariate analysis, multivariate Cox regression analysis was performed to adjust for gender, age, disease type, previous chemotherapy, previous radiotherapy and the levels of albumin and lactate dehydrogenase. A total of 220 patients with a median survival of 4.7 months were identified. All seven parameters were found to be statistically significant predictors of survival on univariate Cox regression analysis (P<0.05). Of these parameters, the low relative lymphocyte and high relative neutrophil counts were consistent predictors of poor survival in patients who received chemotherapy within 1 month prior to blood sampling (n=68) and in patients who received steroid treatment at the time of sampling (n=49). Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that the relative lymphocyte and neutrophil counts were independent predictors of survival in all 220 patients (P<0.05). In conclusion, relative lymphocyte and neutrophil counts were of high prognostic value for the survival of patients receiving palliative radiotherapy, even in those receiving medications that affect WBC and differential counts.

Can clinical factors be used as a selection tool for an organ-preserving strategy in rectal cancer?

BACKGROUND

Rectal cancer patients who achieve a good response to chemoradiotherapy (CRT), may be offered less invasive surgery or even no surgery at all. Implementation of such a policy, however, requires precise patient selection. This study identifies pretreatment clinical factors that are associated with pathological complete response (pCR) and ypT0-1N0 and evaluates their performance as a selection tool for organ-preserving strategies.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Patients with rectal cancer treated with CRT and total mesorectal excision between January 2000 and December 2014 were retrospectively included. Following clinical characteristics were extracted from the medical files: age, gender, body mass index, ASA score, cT-stage, cN-stage, distance from the anal verge, pretreatment carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), pretreatment hemoglobin and distance from the mesorectal fascia. Univariable and multivariable binary logistic regression models were used to predict pCR and ypT0-1N0. The discriminative ability of the prediction models was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 620 patients were included of whom 120 experienced a pCR (19%) and 170 patients achieved ypT0-1N0 response (27%). A low pretreatment CEA, a high pretreatment hemoglobin and a high cN-stage were associated with pCR in multivariable analysis. A low pretreatment CEA, a low cT-stage and a high cN-stage were associated with ypT0-1N0. After cross validation, the area under the curve for the pCR and ypT0-1N0 prediction model equaled 0.609 and 0.632, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Despite their statistical significance, the value of pretreatment clinical variables in the prediction of pCR and ypT0-1N0 is very limited. To safely select patients for organ preservation, other strategies need to be explored.

Clinical factors of post-chemoradiotherapy as valuable indicators for pathological complete response in locally advanced rectal cancer

OBJECTIVES

Pathological complete response has shown a better prognosis for patients with locally advanced rectal cancer after preoperative chemoradiotherapy. However, correlations between post-chemoradiotherapy clinical factors and pathologic complete response are not well confirmed. The aim of the current study was to identify post-chemoradiotherapy clinical factors that could serve as indicators of pathologic complete response in locally advanced rectal cancer.

METHODS

This study retrospectively analyzed 544 consecutive patients with locally advanced rectal cancer treated at Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center from December 2003 to June 2014. All patients received preoperative chemoradiotherapy followed by surgery. Univariate and multivariate regression analyses were performed to identify post-chemoradiotherapy clinical factors that are significant indicators of pathologic complete response.

RESULTS

In this study, 126 of 544 patients (23.2%) achieved pathological complete response. In multivariate analyses, increased pathological complete response rate was significantly associated with the following factors: post-chemoradiotherapy clinical T stage 0-2 (odds ratio=2.098, 95% confidence interval=1.023-4.304, p=0.043), post-chemoradiotherapy clinical N stage 0 (odds ratio=2.011, 95% confidence interval=1.264-3.201, p=0.003), interval from completion of preoperative chemoradiotherapy to surgery of >7 weeks (odds ratio=1.795, 95% confidence interval=1.151-2.801, p=0.010) and post-chemoradiotherapy carcinoembryonic antigen ≤2 ng/ml (odds ratio=1.579, 95% confidence interval=1.026-2.432, p=0.038).

CONCLUSIONS

Post-chemoradiotherapy clinical T stage 0-2, post-chemoradiotherapy clinical N stage 0, interval from completion of chemoradiotherapy to surgery of >7 weeks and post-chemoradiotherapy carcinoembryonic antigen ≤2 ng/ml were independent clinical indicators for pathological complete response. These findings demonstrate that post-chemoradiotherapy clinical factors could be valuable for post-operative assessment of pathological complete response.

Prognosis Can Be Predicted More Accurately Using Pre- and Postchemoradiotherapy Carcinoembryonic Antigen Levels Compared to Only Prechemoradiotherapy Carcinoembryonic Antigen Level in Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer Patients Who Received Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy

We aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of a change in the carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level during neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer. A total of 110 patients with clinical T3/T4 or node-positive disease underwent nCRT and curative total mesorectal resection from February 2006 to December 2013. Serum CEA level was measured before nCRT, after nCRT, and then again after surgery. A cut-off value for CEA level to predict prognosis was determined using the maximally selected log-rank test. According to the test, patients were classified into 3 groups, based on their CEA levels (Group A: pre-CRT CEA ≤3.2; Group B: pre-CRT CEA level >3.2 and post-CRT CEA ≤2.8; and Group C: pre-CRT CEA >3.2 and post-CRT CEA >2.8). The median follow-up time was 31.1 months. The 3-year disease-free survival (DFS) rates of Group A and Group B were similar, while Group C showed a significantly lower 3-year DFS rate (82.5% vs. 89.5% vs. 55.1%, respectively, P = 0.001). Other clinicopathological factors that showed statistical significance on univariate analysis were pre-CRT CEA, post-CRT CEA, tumor distance from the anal verge, surgery type, downstage, pathologic N stage, margin status and perineural invasion. The CEA group (P = 0.001) and tumor distance from the anal verge (P = 0.044) were significant prognostic factors for DFS on multivariate analysis. Post-CRT CEA level may be a useful prognostic factor in patients whose prognosis cannot be predicted exactly by pre-CRT CEA levels alone in the neoadjuvant treatment era. Combined pre-CRT CEA and post-CRT CEA levels enable us to predict prognosis more accurately and determine treatment and follow-up policies. Further large-scale studies are necessary to validate the prognostic value of CEA levels.

New Perspectives on Predictive Biomarkers of Tumor Response and Their Clinical Application in Preoperative Chemoradiation Therapy for Rectal Cancer

Preoperative chemoradiation therapy (CRT) is the standard treatment for patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) and can improve local control and survival outcomes. However, the responses of individual tumors to CRT are not uniform and vary widely, from complete response to disease progression. Patients with resistant tumors can be exposed to irradiation and chemotherapy that are both expensive and at times toxic without benefit. In contrast, about 60% of tumors show tumor regression and T and N down-staging. Furthermore, a pathologic complete response (pCR), which is characterized by sterilization of all tumor cells, leads to an excellent prognosis and is observed in approximately 10-30% of cases. This variety in tumor response has lead to an increased need to develop a model predictive of responses to CRT in order to identify patients who will benefit from this multimodal treatment. Endoscopy, magnetic resonance imaging, positron emission tomography, serum carcinoembryonic antigen, and molecular biomarkers analyzed using immunohistochemistry and gene expression profiling are the most commonly used predictive models in preoperative CRT. Such modalities guide clinicians in choosing the best possible treatment options and the extent of surgery for each individual patient. However, there are still controversies regarding study outcomes, and a nomogram of combined models of future trends is needed to better predict patient response. The aim of this article was to review currently available tools for predicting tumor response after preoperative CRT in rectal cancer and to explore their applicability in clinical practice for tailored treatment.

Clinical parameters predicting pathologic complete response following neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy for rectal cancer

Introduction

Preoperative chemoradiotherapy (CRT), followed by total mesorectal excision, has become the standard of care for patients with clinical stages II and III rectal cancer. Patients with pathologic complete response (pCR) to preoperative CRT have been reported to have better outcomes than those without pCR. However, the factors that predict the response to neoadjuvant CRT have not been well defined. In this study, we aimed to investigate the impact of clinical parameters on the development of pCR after neoadjuvant chemoradiation for rectal cancer.

Methods

A total of 323 consecutive patients from a single institution who had clinical stage II or III rectal cancer and underwent a long-course neoadjuvant CRT, followed by curative surgery, between 2005 and 2013 were included. Patients were divided into two groups according to their responses to neoadjuvant therapy: the pCR and non-pCR groups. The clinical parameters were analyzed by univariate and multivariate analyses, with pCR as the dependent variable.

Results

Of the 323 patients, 75 (23.2%) achieved pCR. The two groups were comparable in terms of age, sex, body mass index, tumor stage, tumor location, tumor differentiation, radiation dose, and chemotherapy regimen. On multivariate analysis, a pretreatment carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level of ≤5 ng/mL [odds ratio (OR) = 2.170, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.195–3.939, P = 0.011] and an interval of >7 weeks between the completion of chemoradiation and surgical resection (OR = 2.588, 95% CI = 1.484–4.512, P = 0.001) were significantly associated with an increased rate of pCR.

Conclusions

The pretreatment CEA level and neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy-surgery interval were independent clinical predictors for achieving pCR. These results may help clinicians predict the prognosis of patients and develop adaptive treatment strategies.

Prognostic Effect of Pretreatment Serum Carcinoembryonic Antigen Level: A Useful Tool for Prediction of Distant Metastasis in Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer Following Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy and Total Mesorectal Excision

Many studies have reported the prognostic value of pretreatment serum carcinoembryonic antigen (pre-CEA) levels on colorectal cancer outcomes. However, controversy remains concerning the significance of pre-CEA levels in patients with rectal cancer treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (CRT). Our aim in this study was to investigate the prognostic role of the pre-CEA level in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer undergoing neoadjuvant CRT followed by total mesorectal excision (TME).A total of 419 patients with stages II and III rectal cancer treated with neoadjuvant CRT followed by TME with available pre-CEA data were included. The outcomes studied were 5-year local recurrence-free survival (LRFS), distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS), and disease-free survival (DFS). Optimal pre-CEA cutoff values to predict DMFS were determined based on current smoking history.The median pre-CEA level of smokers was 3.8 ng/mL, and that of nonsmokers was 2.8 ng/mL (P < 0.01). Pre-CEA levels of 6.6 ng/mL for nonsmokers and 11.4 ng/mL for smokers were determined to best separate patients on the basis of time to distant metastasis by using log-rank statistics. The pre-CEA level was associated with DMFS (hazard ratio = 1.743, 95% confidence interval = 1.129-2.690, P = 0.01). The pre-CEA level was not associated with LRFS or DFS.The pre-CEA level appears to be a significant preoperative prognostic factor. Moreover, it is as valuable as any known pathologic factor. Future studies evaluating oncologic outcomes should take into consideration the pre-CEA level.

Biomarkers and Molecular Imaging as Predictors of Response to Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy in Patients With Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer

Standard treatment of patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) includes neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NCRT) followed by surgery. Tumor regression after NCRT varies substantially among individuals and pathological complete response is a known prognostic factor for LARC. The identification of a predictive model for response to chemoradiotherapy would help clinicians to identify patients who would probably benefit from multimodal treatment and to perform an early assessment of individual prognosis. Carcinoembryonic antigen has proven to be a good predictor of response in several clinical trials. Other widely studied predictive models in LARC include molecular biomarkers, analyzed at various levels and by different techniques, and molecular imaging, in particular magnetic resonance imaging and positron emission tomography/computed tomography. Although none of the studied markers have been approved in clinical practice, their evaluation in larger, prospective trials and in combined predictive models could be of use to define tailored therapeutic strategies.

Prediction of response to preoperative chemoradiotherapy in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer

Preoperative chemoradiotherapy (CRT) combined with surgery has become a standard treatment strategy for patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC). The pathological response is an important prognostic factor for LARC. The variety of tumor responses has increased the need to find a useful predictive model for the response to CRT to identify patients who will really benefit from this multimodal treatment. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), positron emission tomography-computed tomography (PET-CT), serum carcinoembryogenic antigen (CEA), molecular biomarkers analyzed by immunohistochemistry and gene expression profiling are the most used predictive models in LARC. The majority of predictors have yielded encouraging results, but there is still controversy. Diffusion-weighted MRI may be the best model to detect the dynamic changes of rectal cancer and predict the response at an early stage. Gene expression profiling and single nucleotide polymorphisms hold considerable promise to unveil the underlying complex genetics of response to CRT. Because each parameter has its own inherent shortcomings, combined models may be the future trend to predict the response.

The role of fibrinogen as a predictor in preoperative chemoradiation for rectal cancer

BACKGROUND

To perform chemoradiotherapy (CRT) effectively, it is clinically beneficial to identify predictors of tumor response after CRT. This study examined the association between plasma fibrinogen level before preoperative CRT and tumor response in advanced rectal cancer.

METHODS

This was a retrospective study of 947 patients who received preoperative CRT followed by curative surgery for primary rectal cancer. We analyzed clinical factors that could be associated with pathologic tumor response in terms of downstaging (ypStage 0-I), primary tumor regression (ypT0-1), and complete response (ypT0N0).

RESULTS

Downstaging was observed in 366 patients (38.6%), primary tumor regression in 187 patients (19.7%) and complete response in 138 patients (14.6%). Multivariate analysis found that pre-CRT carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level, fibrinogen level, hemoglobin level, clinical T and N classification, distance from anal verge, and histologic grade were significant predictive factors for downstaging; CEA level, fibrinogen level, and N classification predicted primary tumor regression; CEA level, and fibrinogen level were predictive for complete response.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrated that fibrinogen level was a significant predictor of pathologic tumor response after preoperative CRT.

Nomogram to predict ypN status after chemoradiation in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer

Background:

Pelvic lymph node (LN) status after preoperative chemoradiotherapy (CRT) is an important indicator of oncologic outcome in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer. The purpose of this study was to develop a nomogram to predict LN status after preoperative CRT in locally advanced rectal cancer patients.

Methods:

The nomogram was developed in a training cohort (n=891) using logistic regression analyses and validated in a validation cohort (n=258) from a prospectively registered tumour registry at Asan Medical Center. The model was internally and externally validated for discrimination and calibration using bootstrap resampling. Model performance was evaluated by the concordance index (c-index) and calibration curve.

Results:

Pretreatment ypT stage, patient age, preCRT tumour differentiation, cN stage, lymphovascular invasion, and perineural invasion were reliable predictors of LN metastasis after preoperative CRT. The nomogram developed using these parameters had c-indices of 0.81 (training) and 0.77 (validation). The calibration plot suggested good agreement between actual and nomogram-predicted LN status after preoperative CRT.

Conclusions:

This nomogram improves prediction of LN status after preoperative CRT in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer. It will be useful for counselling patients as well as for the design and stratification of patients in clinical trials.

The advantage of circulating tumor cells over serum carcinoembryonic antigen for predicting treatment responses in rectal cancer

AIM

The objective of this study was to investigate the clinical significance of circulating tumor cells (CTCs) on the evaluation and prediction of treatment responses in rectal cancer patients compared with serum carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA).

MATERIALS & METHODS

Both CTCs and CEA levels of 103 rectal cancer patients (66 with stage II-III and 37 with recurrence or metastasis) were analyzed before and after chemoradiotherapy. CTCs were detected using EpCAM magnetic bead-based enrichment combined with cytometric identification.

RESULTS

CTCs were detected in all patients while no tumor cells were found in healthy controls. CTC levels in metastatic patients were significantly higher than those with recurrence or stage II-III rectal cancer. There is a close relationship between CTC levels and treatment outcomes but serum CEA did not have any correlation.

CONCLUSION

CTCs are promising markers for the evaluation and prediction of treatment responses in rectal cancer patients, superior to the conventional tumor marker CEA.

Serum carbohydrate antigen 19-9 represents a marker of response to neoadjuvant therapy in patients with borderline resectable pancreatic cancer

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of this study was to determine the relationship between carbohydrate antigen (CA) 19-9 levels and outcome in patients with borderline resectable pancreatic cancer treated with neoadjuvant therapy (NT).

METHODS

This study included all patients with borderline resectable pancreatic cancer, a serum CA 19-9 level of ≥40 U/ml and bilirubin of ≤2 mg/dl, in whom NT was initiated at one institution between 2001 and 2010. The study evaluated the associations between pre- and post-NT CA 19-9, resection and overall survival.

RESULTS

Among 141 eligible patients, CA 19-9 declined during NT in 116. Following NT, 84 of 141 (60%) patients underwent resection. For post-NT resection, the positive predictive value of a decline and the negative predictive value of an increase in CA 19-9 were 70% and 88%, respectively. The normalization of CA 19-9 (post-NT <40 U/ml) was associated with longer median overall survival among both non-resected (15 months versus 11 months; P = 0.022) and resected (38 months versus 26 months; P = 0.020) patients. Factors independently associated with shorter overall survival were no resection [hazard ratio (HR) 3.86, P < 0.001] and failure to normalize CA 19-9 (HR 2.13, P = 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The serum CA 19-9 level represents a dynamic preoperative marker of tumour biology and response to NT, and provides prognostic information in both non-resected and resected patients with borderline resectable pancreatic cancer.

Prognostic value of pretreatment level of carcinoembryonic antigen on tumour downstaging and early occurring metastasis in locally advanced rectal cancer following neoadjuvant radiotherapy (30 Gy in 10 fractions)

AIM

To evaluate the role of carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) in predicting the response to and prognosis for locally advanced rectal cancer treated with 30 Gy neoadjuvant radiotherapy (nRT) in 10 fractions (30 Gy/10 f).

METHOD

This retrospective study involved 240 patients with locally advanced rectal cancer who underwent 30 Gy/10 f nRT (biologically equivalent dose 36 Gy) followed by total mesorectal excision between August 2003 and 2009. Serum CEA level was determined before administration of nRT. The prognostic value of serum CEA level on tumour downstaging and 3-year disease-free survival was analysed.

RESULTS

Ninety out of 240 (37.5%) patients had elevated CEA levels before nRT. The incidence of T downstaging in patients decreased significantly as the pretreatment CEA levels became more elevated (< 5 ng/ml, 50.7%; 5-10 ng/ml, 39.5%; > 10 ng/ml, 17.3%; P = 0.00014). Downstaging to ypCR or ypStage I occurred in 46.7% (66/150) of patients with a CEA level of < 5 ng/ml and 34.2% (13/38) of patients with a CEA level of 5-10 ng/ml. In contrast, just 13.5% (7/52) of those with a CEA level > 10 ng/ml downstaged to ypStage I and none of them achieved ypCR, with statistical difference (P = 0.001). A significantly higher incidence of early metastasis (within 6 postoperative months) was observed with increasing CEA level: 2.0% (3/150), 5.4% (2/38) and 11.5% (6/52) in patients with CEA level < 5 ng/ml, 5-10 ng/ml or > 10 ng/ml, respectively (P = 0.018).

CONCLUSION

Pretreatment CEA level cannot only predict tumour downstaging and ypTNM stage for rectal cancer following 30 Gy/10 f nRT, but also promisingly suggests a high incidence of early occurring distant metastasis. These findings may be used to select patients with nRT resistance and occult metastasis and make alternative treatment strategies.

Predictive value of (18)FDG PET-CT for tumour response in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer treated by preoperative chemoradiotherapy

PURPOSE

Although (18)fluorine-2-deoxy-D-glucose positron emission tomography-computed tomography ((18)FDG PET-CT) is considered a reliable modality for determining tumour response after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (CRT) in locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC), the role of (18)FDG PET-CT for predicting pathologic complete response (pCR) remains unclear. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether (18)FDG PET-CT can predict tumour response after CRT in patients with LARC, in terms of downstaging and pCR.

METHODS

Between March 2009 and February 2012, 151 patients with LARC treated with neoadjuvant CRT followed by radical surgery were reviewed retrospectively. Pre-CRT SUVmax (maximum standardized uptake value), post-CRT SUVmax, ΔSUVmax (difference between pre- and post-CRT SUVmax), and RI-SUV (response index) were measured before and after CRT. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to analyse the association of PET-CT-related parameters and clinical variables, to assess downstaging and pCR.

RESULTS

Downstaging occurred in 48 patients (31.7 %) and pCR in 19 patients (12.5 %). Univariate and multivariate analysis revealed post-CRT SUVmax as a significant factor for prediction of downstaging, with sensitivity of 60.4 %, specificity of 65.0 %, and accuracy of 55.9 %, for a cutoff value of 3.70. Regarding pCR, post-CRT SUVmax was again found as a significant parameter by univariate and multivariate analysis, with sensitivity of 73.7 %, specificity of 63.7 %, and accuracy of 64.9 %, for a cutoff value of 3.55.

CONCLUSIONS

The results indicate that post-CRT SUVmax independently predicts downstaging and pCR. However, the predictive values of post-CRT SUVmax for tumour response after neoadjuvant CRT are too low in sensitivity and specificity to change the treatment plan for LARC.

CEA - a predictor for pathologic complete response after neoadjuvant therapy for rectal cancer

BACKGROUND

Preoperative chemoradiation therapy in patients with rectal cancer results in pathologic complete response in approximately 10% to 30% of patients. Accurate predictive factors for obtaining pathologic complete response would likely influence the selection of patients best treated by chemoradiation therapy as the primary treatment without radical surgery.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of tumor size, stage, location, circumferential extent, patient characteristics, and pretreatment CEA levels on the development of pathologic complete response after chemoradiation therapy.

DESIGN

This study is a retrospective review.

SETTINGS AND PATIENTS

Five hundred thirty patients treated with preoperative chemoradiation therapy and radical surgery for rectal adenocarcinoma between 1998 and 2011 were identified. A total of 469 patients remained after excluding patients with a history of pelvic radiation (n = 2), previous transanal endoscopic microsurgery or polypectomy of the primary lesion (n = 15), concurrent malignant tumor (n = 14), and no information about pre- or posttreatment T stage in the chart (n = 30). Preoperative CEA levels were available for 267 patients (57%).

INTERVENTIONS

Preoperative chemoradiation therapy and total mesorectal excision were performed in patients with rectal cancer.

MAIN OUTCOME

The primary outcome measured was pathologic complete response.

RESULTS

: Ninety-six patients (20%) were found to have a pathologic complete response in the operative specimen. Low pretreatment CEA (3.4 vs 9.6 ng/mL; p = 0.008) and smaller mean tumor size (4.2 vs 4.7 cm; p = 0.02) were significantly associated with pathologic complete response. Low CEA levels and interruption in chemoradiation therapy were significant predictors of pathologic complete response in the multivariate analysis. When stratifying for smoking status, low CEA level was significantly associated with pathologic complete response only in the group of nonsmokers (p = 0.02).

LIMITATIONS

This study was limited by its retrospective design, missing CEA values, and lack of tumor regression grade assessment.

CONCLUSIONS

We demonstrated an association between low pretreatment CEA levels, interruption in chemoradiation therapy, and pathologic complete response in patients treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiation therapy for locally advanced rectal cancer. The predictive value of CEA in smokers can be limited, and further studies are needed to evaluate the impact of smoking on the predictive value of CEA levels for pathologic complete response in rectal cancer.

New application of dual point 18F-FDG PET/CT in the evaluation of neoadjuvant chemoradiation response of locally advanced rectal cancer

PURPOSE

FDG PET/CT has been suggested as the most reliable modality to predict pathological tumor responses after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (CRT) in locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC). However, several confounding factors including radiation-induced inflammation could not be easily avoided with the commonly used single-point FDG PET/CT. Our aim was to evaluate the accuracy of a dual-point PET/CT protocol in LARC response prediction to CRT.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Sixty-one LARC patients were enrolled and treated with neoadjuvant CRT. PET/CT was performed before and after CRT. Dual-point acquisition was applied to post-CRT PET/CT. Post-CRT SUVmax (postSUV), pre/post-CRT SUVmax change (RI), and dual-point index (DI) of post-CRT PET/CT were compared with the Dworak tumor regression grade (TRG) as a gold standard. Univariate and multivariate analyses, as well as receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, were used to evaluate the predictive ability of demographic, clinical, and metabolic PET parameters.

RESULTS

Fifteen patients of TRG3-4 were defined as pathological responders, and 46 patients of TRG1-2 were nonresponders. The resulting response index (RI) ranged from -13 to 94.8% (59.1±22.0%), and delay index (DI) ranged from -45.2 to 25.0% (-9.1±12.1%). Univariate analysis resulted in PET parameters (postSUV, RI, and DI) as significant predictors (P=0.004, P<0.001, P<0.0001). According to multivariate analysis, RI and DI remained as significant predictors (P=0.04 and P=0.0004). Receiver operating characteristic analysis showed that DI had significantly higher area under the curve compared with RI (0.906 vs 0.696, P=0.018). Delay index had 86.7% sensitivity, 87.0% specificity, 68.4% positive predictive value, 95.2% negative predictive value, and 86.9% accuracy.

CONCLUSIONS

Dual-point post-CRT PET/CT can predict pathological tumor response better than conventional single time point pre- and post-CRT PET/CT.

Preoperative elevation of carcinoembryonic antigen predicts poor tumor response and frequent distant recurrence for patients with rectal cancer who receive preoperative chemoradiotherapy and total mesorectal excision: a multi-institutional analysis in an Asian population

PURPOSE

This study was conducted to evaluate the significance of carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level as a predictor for tumor response to chemoradiotherapy (CRT) and a prognosticator for survival in Asian patients with advanced rectal cancer.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We enrolled 345 patients with primary rectal cancer who had undergone preoperative CRT and total mesorectal excision. We analyzed clinicopathological factors that could be associated with pathologically complete response (ypCR) and disease-free survival (DFS).

RESULTS

A cutoff level of 5 ng/mL (p = 0.002) for CEA was found to be significant for prediction of ypCR. Increased CEA level (p = 0.025) was a significant negative predictor of ypCR after CRT in patients with rectal cancer. The 5-year DFS rate was significantly higher in the CEA ≤5-ng/mL group than in the CEA >5-ng/mL group (73.2 vs. 60.9 %, p = 0.002). This is mainly due to the higher chance of distant recurrence (p = 0.013), not locoregional recurrence (p = 0.732), in the CEA >5-ng/mL group.

CONCLUSIONS

Elevated CEA (>5 ng/mL) is a negative predictor of ypCR and has a negative impact on DFS in Asian rectal cancer patients who underwent preoperative CRT and surgery due to an increased chance of distant recurrences.

Carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level, CEA ratio, and treatment outcome of rectal cancer patients receiving pre-operative chemoradiation and surgery

Background

To investigate serum carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) as a prognostic factor for rectal cancer patients receiving pre-operative chemoradiotherapy (CRT).

Methods

Between 2000 and 2009, 138 patients with advanced rectal cancer receiving CRT before surgery at our hospital were retrospectively classified into 3 groups: pre-CRT CEA <6 ng/ml (group L; n = 87); pre-CRT CEA ≥ 6 ng/ml and post-CRT CEA <6 ng/ml (group H-L; n = 32); and both pre- and post-CRT CEA ≥ 6 ng/ml (group H-H; n = 19). CEA ratio (defined as post-CRT CEA divided by pre-CRT CEA), post-CRT CEA level and other factors were reviewed for prediction of pathologic complete response (pCR).

Results

Five-year disease-free survival (DFS) was better in groups L (69.0%) and H-L (74.5%) than in group H-H (44.9%) (p = 0.024). Pathologic complete response was observed in 19.5%, 21.9% and 5.3% of groups L, H-L and H-H respectively (p = 0.281). Multivariate analysis showed that ypN stage and pCR were independent prognostic factors for DFS and that post-CRT CEA level was independently predictive of pCR. As a whole, post-CRT CEA <2.61 ng/ml predicted pCR (sensitivity 76.0%; specificity 58.4%). For those with pre-CRT CEA ≥6 ng/ml, post-CRT CEA and CEA ratio both predicted pCR (sensitivity 87.5%, specificity 76.7%).

Conclusions

In patients with pre-CRT serum CEA ≥6 ng/ml, those with “normalized” CEA levels after CRT may have similar DFS to those with “normal” (<6 ng/ml) pre-CRT values. Post-CRT CEA level is a predictor for pCR, especially in those with pre-CRT CEA ≥6 ng/ml.

Treatment of locally advanced rectal cancer: Controversies and questions

Rectal cancers extending through the rectal wall, or involving locoregional lymph nodes (T3/4 or N1/2), have been more difficult to cure. The confines of the bony pelvis and the necessity of preserving the autonomic nerves makes surgical extirpation challenging, which accounts for the high rates of local and distant relapse in this setting. Combined multimodality treatment for rectal cancer stage II and III was recommended from National Institute of Health consensus. Neoadjuvant chemoradiation using fluoropyrimidine-based regimen prior to surgical resection has emerged as the standard of care in the United States. Optimal time of surgery after neoadjuvant treatment remained unclear and prospective randomized controlled trial is ongoing. Traditionally, 6-8 wk waiting period was commonly used. The accuracy of studies attempting to determine tumor complete response remains problematic. Currently, surgery remains the standard of care for rectal cancer patients following neoadjuvant chemoradiation, whereas observational management is still investigational. In this article, we outline trends and controversies associated with optimal pre-treatment staging, neoadjuvant therapies, surgery, and adjuvant therapy.

Clinical significance of serial serum carcinoembryonic antigen values for treating rectal cancer with preoperative chemoradiotherapy

Purpose

Preoperative chemoradiotherapy is now widely accepted to treat rectal cancer; however, the prognosis for rectal cancer patients during and after chemoradiotherapy must be determined. The aim of this study was to evaluate the serial serum carcinoembryonic antigen (s-CEA) samples in patients with rectal cancer who underwent radical surgery after concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CRT).

Methods

This study evaluated 236 patients with rectal cancer who received preoperative CRT followed by curative surgery between June 2005 and June 2010. We measured the patient's s-CEA levels pre-CRT, post-CRT and post-surgery. Patients were classified into four groups according to their s-CEA concentrations (group 1, high, high, high; group 2, high, high, normal; group 3, high, normal, normal; group 4, normal, normal, normal). We analyzed the clinicopathologic factors and the outcomes among these groups.

Results

Of the 236 patients, 12 were in group 1, 31 were in group 2, 67 were in group 3, and 126 were in group 4. The 3-year disease-free survival rate in group 1 was poorer than those in group 3 (P = 0.007) and group 4 (P < 0.001). In a univariate analysis, type of surgery, clinical N stage, pathologic T or N stage, lymphovascular invasion, perineural invasion, and CEA group were prognostic factors. A multivariate analysis revealed that type of surgery, pathologic T stage, and lymphovascular invasion were independent prognostic factors; however, no statistical significance was associated with the CEA group.

Conclusion

High pre-CRT, post-CRT, and post-surgery s-CEA levels in patients with rectal cancer were associated with high rates of systemic recurrence and poor survival. Therefore, patients with sustained high s-CEA levels during CRT require careful monitoring after surgery.

An update on preoperative radiotherapy for locally advanced rectal cancer

Even in patients undergoing an optimal surgical technique (e.g., total mesorectal excision), radiotherapy provides a significant benefit in the local control of rectal cancer. Compared with postoperative treatment, chemoradiotherapy given preoperatively has been shown to decrease local recurrence rates and toxicity. Additionally, preoperative chemoradiotherapy permits the early identification of tumor responses to this cytotoxic treatment by surgical pathology. Pathological parameters reflecting the tumor response to chemoradiotherapy have been shown to be surrogate markers for long-term clinical outcomes. Post-chemoradiotherapy downstaging from cStage II-III to ypStage 0-I indicates a favorable prognosis, with no difference between ypStage 0 and ypStage I. Research is ongoing to develop useful tools (clinical, molecular, and radiological) for clinical determination of the pathologic chemoradiotherapeutic response before surgery, and possibly even before preoperative treatment. In the future, risk-adapted strategies, including intensification of preoperative therapy, conservative surgery, or the selective administration of postoperative chemotherapy, will be realized for locally-advanced rectal cancer patients based on their response to preoperative chemoradiotherapy.

Combined modality therapy for rectal cancer: the relative value of posttreatment versus pretreatment CEA as a prognostic marker for disease recurrence

PURPOSE

To evaluate the prognostic significance of the first postsurgery carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiation (nCRT) and total mesorectal excision.

METHODS

A total of 100 patients underwent nCRT and had baseline and posttreatment CEA levels recorded within 6 months of surgery. The median radiotherapy dose was 50.4 Gy. Eighty-six patients received adjuvant 5-fluorouracil-based chemotherapy. Prognostic factors were analyzed for possible associations with freedom from failure (FFF) by univariate and multivariate analyses. Median follow-up was 30 months.

RESULTS

The median CEA (ng/ml) levels at baseline before nCRT, after nCRT, and after total mesorectal excision were 3.6, 1.7, and 1.3, respectively. Pathologic complete response was observed in 22%. FFF at 36 months was 78%. Local failure and distant failure occurred in 4 and 20% of the patients, respectively. On univariate analysis, pathologic complete response, margin status, and both pretreatment and postsurgery CEA levels were associated with recurrence (all P < 0.05). On multivariate analysis, pathologic complete response (P < 0.007), margin status (P < 0.001), and postsurgery CEA level (P = 0.003), but not baseline CEA level (P = 0.2), were found to be associated with recurrence.

CONCLUSIONS

After nCRT for rectal cancer, postsurgery CEA level may have more prognostic value than pretreatment level. Patients with a postsurgery CEA level of >2.5 ng/ml have higher rates of recurrence and may warrant closer surveillance.